(untitled)

Forecasting Moving averages - 3 period moving average

This
This spreadsheet
spreadsheet was
was created
created by
by either
either POM,
POM, QM
QM or
or POM-QM
POM-QM forForecasting
for Windows,
Windows, V4.
V4.
1200000
1000000
800000
600000 Demand
Data Error analysis

Value
400000
Forecast
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute
200000 Squared |% Error|
January 28056 0
1 19 37 5 5 7 3
February 29715
March 67370 Time
April 271147 41713.67 229433.3 229433.3 5.26E+10 0.846158
May 405921 122744 283177 283177 8.02E+10 0.697616
June 381631 248146 133485 133485 1.78E+10 0.349775
July 373879 352899.7 20979.33 20979.33 4.4E+08 0.056113
August 402119 387143.7 14975.33 14975.33 2.24E+08 0.037241
September 421316 385876.3 35439.67 35439.67 1.26E+09 0.084117
October 365320 399104.7 -33784.7 33784.67 1.14E+09 0.09248
November 72387 396251.7 -323865 323864.7 1.05E+11 4.474072
December 35740 286341 -250601 250601 6.28E+10 7.01178
January 52355 157815.7 -105461 105460.7 1.11E+10 2.014338
February 46648 53494 -6846 6846 46867716 0.146759
March 148643 44914.33 103728.7 103728.7 1.08E+10 0.697838
April 255604 82548.67 173055.3 173055.3 2.99E+10 0.677045
May 552765 150298.3 402466.7 402466.7 1.62E+11 0.728097
June 490102 319004 171098 171098 2.93E+10 0.349107
July 532291 432823.7 99467.33 99467.33 9.89E+09 0.186866
August 520799 525052.7 -4253.67 4253.667 18093680 0.008168
September 615763 514397.3 101365.7 101365.7 1.03E+10 0.164618
October 507863 556284.3 -48421.3 48421.33 2.34E+09 0.095343
November 105058 548141.7 -443084 443083.7 1.96E+11 4.217515
December 72087 409561.3 -337474 337474.3 1.14E+11 4.681487
January 38333 228336 -190003 190003 3.61E+10 4.956643
February 43915 71826 -27911 27911 7.79E+08 0.635569
March 167837 51445 116392 116392 1.35E+10 0.693482
April 314960 83361.67 231598.3 231598.3 5.36E+10 0.735326
May 671808 175570.7 496237.3 496237.3 2.46E+11 0.738659
June 526295 384868.3 141426.7 141426.7 2E+10 0.268721
July 561926 504354.3 57571.67 57571.67 3.31E+09 0.102454
August 561727 586676.3 -24949.3 24949.33 6.22E+08 0.044415
September 659344 549982.7 109361.3 109361.3 1.2E+10 0.165864
October 518515 594332.3 -75817.3 75817.33 5.75E+09 0.14622
November 95801 579862 -484061 484061 2.34E+11 5.052776
December 59517 424553.3 -365036 365036.3 1.33E+11 6.133312
January 46845 224611 -177766 177766 3.16E+10 3.79477
February 57397 67387.67 -9990.67 9990.667 99813420 0.174063
March 148821 54586.33 94234.67 94234.67 8.88E+09 0.633208
April 403050 84354.33 318695.7 318695.7 1.02E+11 0.79071
May 659547 203089.3 456457.7 456457.7 2.08E+11 0.692078
June 698585 403806 294779 294779 8.69E+10 0.421966
July 710961 587060.7 123900.3 123900.3 1.54E+10 0.174272
August 720581 689697.7 30883.33 30883.33 9.54E+08 0.042859
September 714155 710042.3 4112.667 4112.667 16914027 0.005759
October 475003 715232.3 -240229 240229.3 5.77E+10 0.505743
November 78625 636579.7 -557955 557954.7 3.11E+11 7.096403
December 61650 422594.3 -360944 360944.3 1.3E+11 5.854734
January 49506 205092.7 -155587 155586.7 2.42E+10 3.142784
February 39371 63260.33 -23889.3 23889.33 5.71E+08 0.606775
March 96208 50175.67 46032.33 46032.33 2.12E+09 0.478467
April 118812 61695 57117 57117 3.26E+09 0.480734
May 345634 84797 260837 260837 6.8E+10 0.754662
June 335194 186884.7 148309.3 148309.3 2.2E+10 0.442458
July 617147 266546.7 350600.3 350600.3 1.23E+11 0.568099
August 780736 432658.3 348077.7 348077.7 1.21E+11 0.445833
September 737862 577692.3 160169.7 160169.7 2.57E+10 0.217073
October 422892 711915 -289023 289023 8.35E+10 0.683444
November 76787 647163.3 -570376 570376.3 3.25E+11 7.428033
December 85900 412513.7 -326614 326613.7 1.07E+11 3.802255
January 61463 195193 -133730 133730 1.79E+10 2.175781
February 82159 74716.67 7442.333 7442.333 55388325 0.090585
March 125681 76507.33 49173.67 49173.67 2.42E+09 0.391258
April 491401 89767.67 401633.3 401633.3 1.61E+11 0.817323
May 157517 233080.3 -75563.3 75563.33 5.71E+09 0.479715
June 847034 258199.7 588834.3 588834.3 3.47E+11 0.695172
July 917156 498650.7 418505.3 418505.3 1.75E+11 0.456308
August 1009876 640569 369307 369307 1.36E+11 0.365695
September 1073798 924688.7 149109.3 149109.3 2.22E+10 0.138862
October 864441 1000277 -135836 135835.7 1.85E+10 0.157137
November 153730 982705 -828975 828975 6.87E+11 5.392409
December 102425 697323 -594898 594898 3.54E+11 5.808133
January 100317 373532 -273215 273215 7.46E+10 2.723516
February 110009 118824 -8815 8815 77704225 0.08013
March 224383 104250.3 120132.7 120132.7 1.44E+10 0.535391
April 661443 144903 516540 516540 2.67E+11 0.780929
May 971019 331945 639074 639074 4.08E+11 0.658148
June 928281 618948.3 309332.7 309332.7 9.57E+10 0.333232
July 744322 853581 -109259 109259 1.19E+10 0.14679
August 682442 881207.3 -198765 198765.3 3.95E+10 0.291256
September 689217 785015 -95798 95798 9.18E+09 0.138995
October 618808 705327 -86519 86519 7.49E+09 0.139816
November 155408 663489 -508081 508081 2.58E+11 3.269336
December 90000 487811 -397811 397811 1.58E+11 4.420122
Total 303342.7 18065757 6.79E+12 117.0132
Average 3744.971 223034 8.38E+10 1.444607
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
 SE 293112.8
Next period 288072
4.
4.

Demand
Forecast
czech

Forecasting Moving averages - 3 period moving average

This
This spreadsheet
spreadsheet was
was created
created by
by either
either POM,
POM, QM
QM or
or POM-QM
POM-QM forForecasting
for Windows,
Windows, V4.
V4.
250000
200000
150000
100000 Demand
Data Error analysis

Value
Period Demand Forecast Error 50000 Squared |% Error| Forecast
Absolute
January 290 0
1 19 3 7 55 7 3
February 253
March 478 Time
April 1025 340.3333 684.6667 684.6667 468768.4 0.667967
May 2776 585.3333 2190.667 2190.667 4799020 0.789145
June 8785 1426.333 7358.667 7358.667 54149975 0.83764
July 3237 4195.333 -958.333 958.3333 918402.8 0.296056
August 3282 4932.667 -1650.67 1650.667 2724700 0.502945
September 10501 5101.333 5399.667 5399.667 29156400 0.514205
October 6286 5673.333 612.6667 612.6667 375360.4 0.097465
November 1144 6689.667 -5545.67 5545.667 30754419 4.847611
December 498 5977 -5479 5479 30019441 11.00201
January 344 2642.667 -2298.67 2298.667 5283868 6.682171
February 400 662 -262 262 68644 0.655
March 901 414 487 487 237169 0.540511
April 1198 548.3333 649.6667 649.6667 422066.8 0.542293
May 2806 833 1973 1973 3892729 0.703136
June 13762 1635 12127 12127 1.47E+08 0.881195
July 3415 5922 -2507 2507 6285049 0.734114
August 3043 6661 -3618 3618 13089924 1.188958
September 12838 6740 6098 6098 37185604 0.474996
October 2235 6432 -4197 4197 17614809 1.877852
November 1144 6038.667 -4894.67 4894.667 23957762 4.278555
December 551 5405.667 -4854.67 4854.667 23567788 8.810647
January 291 1310 -1019 1019 1038361 3.501718
February 389 662 -273 273 74529 0.701799
March 789 410.3333 378.6667 378.6667 143388.4 0.479932
April 349 489.6667 -140.667 140.6667 19787.11 0.403056
May 5951 509 5442 5442 29615364 0.914468
June 18605 2363 16242 16242 2.64E+08 0.872991
July 5120 8301.667 -3181.67 3181.667 10123003 0.621419
August 7006 9892 -2886 2886 8328996 0.411933
September 15409 10243.67 5165.333 5165.333 26680668 0.335215
October 1754 9178.333 -7424.33 7424.333 55120725 4.232801
November 833 8056.333 -7223.33 7223.333 52176544 8.671469
December 801 5998.667 -5197.67 5197.667 27015739 6.488972
January 522 1129.333 -607.333 607.3333 368853.8 1.163474
February 743 718.6667 24.33333 24.33333 592.1111 0.03275
March 1009 688.6667 320.3333 320.3333 102613.4 0.317476
April 4228 758 3470 3470 12040900 0.820719
May 8417 1993.333 6423.667 6423.667 41263493 0.763178
June 17411 4551.333 12859.67 12859.67 1.65E+08 0.738594
July 18324 10018.67 8305.333 8305.333 68978562 0.453249
August 29010 14717.33 14292.67 14292.67 2.04E+08 0.492681
September 37056 21581.67 15474.33 15474.33 2.39E+08 0.417593
October 59724 28130 31594 31594 9.98E+08 0.529
November 62220 41930 20290 20290 4.12E+08 0.326101
December 43766 53000 -9234 9234 85266756 0.210986
January 7433 55236.67 -47803.7 47803.67 2.29E+09 6.431275
February 10462 37806.33 -27344.3 27344.33 7.48E+08 2.613681
March 28260 20553.67 7706.333 7706.333 59387573 0.272694
April 56223 15385 40838 40838 1.67E+09 0.726358
May 120703 31648.33 89054.67 89054.67 7.93E+09 0.7378
June 115920 68395.33 47524.67 47524.67 2.26E+09 0.409978
July 71140 97615.33 -26475.3 26475.33 7.01E+08 0.372158
August 95955 102587.7 -6632.67 6632.667 43992267 0.069123
September 144218 94338.33 49879.67 49879.67 2.49E+09 0.345863
October 206565 103771 102794 102794 1.06E+10 0.497635
November 95173 148912.7 -53739.7 53739.67 2.89E+09 0.564652
December 45679 148652 -102973 102973 1.06E+10 2.254274
January 18207 115805.7 -97598.7 97598.67 9.53E+09 5.360502
February 31445 53019.67 -21574.7 21574.67 4.65E+08 0.686108
March 60287 31777 28510 28510 8.13E+08 0.472905
April 77453 36646.33 40806.67 40806.67 1.67E+09 0.526857
May 168530 56395 112135 112135 1.26E+10 0.665371
June 58694 102090 -43396 43396 1.88E+09 0.73936
July 78667 101559 -22892 22892 5.24E+08 0.290999
August 79026 101963.7 -22937.7 22937.67 5.26E+08 0.290255
September 32711 72129 -39418 39418 1.55E+09 1.205038
October 95264 63468 31796 31796 1.01E+09 0.333767
November 62146 69000.33 -6854.33 6854.333 46981885 0.110294
December 25364 63373.67 -38009.7 38009.67 1.44E+09 1.498568
January 4281 60924.67 -56643.7 56643.67 3.21E+09 13.23141
February 23119 30597 -7478 7478 55920484 0.323457
March 32424 17588 14836 14836 2.2E+08 0.457562
April 36321 19941.33 16379.67 16379.67 2.68E+08 0.45097
May 39283 30621.33 8661.667 8661.667 75024469 0.220494
June 30170 36009.33 -5839.33 5839.333 34097814 0.193548
July 28618 35258 -6640 6640 44089600 0.232022
August 34072 32690.33 1381.667 1381.667 1909003 0.040551
September 30445 30953.33 -508.333 508.3333 258402.8 0.016697
October 24423 31045 -6622 6622 43850884 0.271138
November 19843 29646.67 -9803.67 9803.667 96111880 0.494062
December 68208 24903.67 43304.33 43304.33 1.88E+09 0.634886
Total 88834.33 1538109 8.33E+10 124.8684
Average 1096.72 18989 1.03E+09 1.541585
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
 SE 32477.84
Next period 37491.3333
4.
4.

Demand
Forecast