ISSN 0003701X, Applied Solar Energy, 2015, Vol. 51, No. 4, pp. 262–266. © Allerton Press, Inc., 2015.

DIRECT CONVERSION OF SOLAR ENERGY

TO ELECTRIC ENERGY

Reliability Model Assessment of GridConnected Solar Photovoltaic

System Based on MonteCarlo1
Haiying Wanga, Ninghui Zhub, and Xiaomin Baic
a
State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology, Huazhong University of Science
and Technology, Wuhan, China
bCEPRI Science and Technology Company, Beijing, China
c
China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing, China
email: zhongtongboce@163.com
Received February 2, 2015

Abstract—The rapid growth of photovoltaic PV energy utilization and the immense potential for future use
dictate a need to seriously consider the reliability of PV system. In this study, the comprehensive model to
assess the reliability of largescale and gridconnected PV system was proposed, taking account of weather
condition as well as critical component failure probability. In addition, the sequential MonteCarlo simula
tion was also established, combining with the developed model. And this analytical approach was successfully
applied to evaluate the practical PV system in western area of China. The result showed that the reliability
increased as the system capacity increased. And the simulated value become more accurate when the basic
model was modified by more factors, especially by weather condition. While for the fixedcapacity system,
the reliability decreased periodically as the operation time prolonged, which was mainly caused by the PV
modules and inverters failure probability.
DOI: 10.3103/S0003701X15040192

1
1. INTRODUCTION
Recently, the global energy consumption of fossil
fuels increased significantly, which also severely dam
aged the environment. Thus the solar photovolatic
system which could produce clean, abundant, pollu
tion free renewable energy is a strongly needed and has
developed rapidly over last decades [1]. Throughout
the world, the total installed PV system capacity has
been grown exponentially from 300 MW in 2001 to
about 70 GW in 2014. So the PV system which convert
sunlight to electricity is a promising renewable energy
alternative for future prospects [2, 3].
However the capacity as well as economics of the
PV system could only be effective when it was operated
reliability for several decades [4]. But the unreliable
nature and relatively high risks exist both inside and
outside of PV power systems which was composed of
many vulnerable components such as PV array, electri
cal inverters and the energy storage [5, 6]. Conse
quently in recent literature, evaluating and analyzing
the reliability of solar PV system has been a point of
interest. Because it could helps to predict system
behavior and devise appropriately timed maintenance
plans [7–9]. In addition it is also significant for plan
ning and longterm operation of large scale and grid
connected PV system [10]. Marcantonio [11] esti
1 The article is published in the original.
mated the reliability of solar PV system designs using
the effects and criticality analysis methodology
(FMECA). L. Qiaomu [12] proposed a new method to
monitoring network base on topological structure
design. Amir Ahadi [13] evaluated the components of
largescale PV system using fault tree analysis (FTA).
And there are also many other investigators calculat
ing the overall system reliability models using Monte
Carlo simulation, such as considering windsolar
hybrid power supply system, dieselsolar hybrid sys
tem and photovoltaic DG [14–16]. However the pre
vious literature either mainly focused on the reliability
assessment for the IGBT, capacitor and inverter or just
pay attention to weather condition. So the real electri
cal architecture and the reliability model considering
comprehensive influence factors for entire gridcon
nected PV system is much few and still requires further
research.
In this paper, the new reliability assessment model
for gridconnected PV system was established base on
the MonteCarlo simulation and considering the light
resources fluctuation caused by the ambient condition
as well as equipment component failure effects. And
this approach could also be extended to estimating the
distribution system with combined conventional gen
erators or even other renewable sources. In addition,
the accuracy and practicability of this evaluation
model was tested with an actual system example.

262
 RELIABILITY MODEL ASSESSMENT OF GRIDCONNECTED SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC
2. RELIABILITY MODELS OF PV SYSTEM
2.1. Basic Model of PV Power Generation
The basic PV power generation model could be
expressed as a function of surface temperature of solar
panels and solar irradiation in order to determine the
solar power generation more efficiently.
P pv = Y PV ⎛ 
RT ⎞
 ( 1 + L p ΔT ),
⎝ R STC⎠
where Ppv and YPV are the real output power and max
imum rated output power respectively. RT represents
the real solar irradiation. And RSTC means the solar
irradiation under standard condition 1367 W/m2. Lp is
the temperature coefficient of PV system. ΔT is the
temperature deviation from the reference value 25°C.
Generally for all the system, the maximum rated
output power and module parameters such as inverter
characteristics could be same or could be found. How
ever the real output power was strongly depended on
the real solar irradiation and temperature deviation.
Firstly the solar radiation RE0 after extraterrestrial
radiation penetrating the atmospheric layer could be
present periodic variation by a cycle of one year. And
the calculating relation was as follows,
R E0 = R STC 1 + cos ⎛  n d⎞ k t ,
1 360
30 ⎝ 365 ⎠
where RSTC means the solar irradiation under standard
condition 1367 W/m2, nd was the number of the day in
one year. And the kt was attenuation coefficient of irra
diation.
However the real solar irradiation R0 absorbed by
PV panels was also influenced by the solar incident
angle θh,
cosθh = cosϕcosδcosω + sinϕsinδ,
where ϕ was the latitude of PV location, δ was solar
declination. And ω was solar hour angle. And then,
R0 = RE0 cosθh.
Secondly the temperature fluctuation for everyday
could be described as sine functions,
Tt = αsinω + β,
ω also was the solar hour angle at t time. And
( T max – T min )
α = 
,
2 also been conducted on the reliability evaluation of
( T max + T min )
β = 
.
2
The Tmax and Tmin were the maximum and mini
mum temperature in a day.
APPLIED SOLAR ENERGY Vol. 51 No. 4
263
200 Sunshine
Cloudy
Rainy
PV output power, MW
Overcast
150
100
50
0
5 10 15 20
Time, h
Fig. 1. Comparison of P V output in different weather.
2.2. Weather Condition Effect on Generation Model
The basic output power model was at the assump
tion of that everyday was clear day in the whole year.
However the changes of weather and ambient condi
tion of PV geographic position would obviously affect
the solar radiation as well as temperature. In this sec
tion, the weather condition could be divided into sun
shine, cloudy, overcast and rainy. Through comparing
the attenuation tendency data of PV output power
under cloudy, overcast and rainy with the basic condi
tion in summer, the weather effect coefficient ηi, j
could be obtained. And the result was shown in Fig. 1.
Then the coefficient for other three seasons would also
be calculated using the same method.
In addition, although the weather variations was
extraordinary different in four seasons, the pattern was
quite similar at the same region. So generally the
change regularity of weather could be estimated using
historical weather data of the specific area where PV
system was installed. At last, the basic model modified
by the weather effect coefficient in the whole year
would be as follows
R '0 = R 0 η i, j ,
where i and j represent the season and weather condi
tion.
2.3. MonteCarlo Simulation of System Reliability
Besides weather condition analysis, some work has
critical components in PV system, such as inverter and
PV modules. In this study, it was assumed that all the
failures could be repaired and the transient fault would
be ignored. Then the sampling statistics of time to fail
ure TF and time to repair TR of all components was
made for the PV system. So the duration sequence of
2015
264 HAIYING WANG et al.

Import PV system module parame–

Basic PV output power sequence simulation

Record Nyear

Weather condition sampling and PV output model modifica–

Components status sampling and PV output model modification

Nyear = Nyear + The annual available power capacity sampling

The annual load sequence simula–

Judge system running state, accumulate reliability index

YES
Nyear < N?

Statistics reliability index

Fig. 2. Process of PV system reliability evaluation using MonteCarlo.

every component under each running state could be
described as,
T TF = – 1/λ i lnu,
T TR = – 1/u i lnu,
where λi and ui were the outage rate and repair rate of
component i respectively. And u was a random number
obeyed uniform distribution of [0, 1]. By synthetic
analysis the duration sequence of all component, the
PV system fault power time could be determined.
As an often used method, the sequential Monte
Carlo simulation which owns more flexibility could be
used. And base on this, the flow chart of reliability
assessment of gridconnect PV system was show in
Fig. 2.

Table 1. Weather probability for PV system location

Conditions Spring Summer Autumn Winter
Sunshine 0.68 0.42 0.60 0.74
Cloudy 0.24 0.26 0.35 0.17
Overcast 0.05 0.14 0.02 0.03
Rainy 0.03 0.18 0.03 0.06

APPLIED SOLAR ENERGY Vol. 51 No. 4 2015

 RELIABILITY MODEL ASSESSMENT OF GRIDCONNECTED SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC 265

Table 2. Failure parameters for component of PV system Based on these data discussed above, the reliability
index which was expressed as healthy state probability
Outrage rate, Repair rate, Failure of PV system would be calculated using the basic
Component
time/h h/time probability
model and model considering weather condition as
PV modules 0.283 249.49 0.0083 well as the influence of system component failures
Inverter 2.923 238.38 0.0815 respectively. And the simulation results were shown in
Fig. 3.
It could be found that with the increasing of gener
3. MODEL APPLICATION AND RESULT ating capacity, all the three healthy state probability
increased obviously in the initial stage. While at the
The developed evaluation model has been applied end, the improvement of reliability intended to gentle
to an example gridconnect PV system in the western and might become saturated when the capacity was
area of China. The base system contains a set of 20 PV over 800 MW. This tendency was consistent with the
arrays with the generating capacity from 15 MW to theoretical analysis. Because the larger of PV capacity
1000 MW. On the other hand, the system peak load is was, the more reliable of the PV system would be.
about 700 MW according to the chronological hourly When the capacity exceeded the peak load, the change
profile of this area. of reliability would be small. In addition, it also could
be concluded the simulated value become more accu
In addition both the failure parameters of PV com rate when the basic model was modified. In general,
ponent and the weather condition probability were the weather condition had a more pronounced effect
estimated using the local date records and were list in on the basic model than the system components.
Table 1 and Table 2 respectively.
However the total reliability of PV system from
50 MW to 1000 MW was estimated over just one year
1.00 of operation. So the influence of the system compo
0.95 nent was not remarkable, especially when the capacity
Healthy state probability

was low. Thus the reliability of PV system with capacity

0.90 1000 MW was also assessed using the modified model
0.85 under a longterm operation from one year to ten
0.80 years. The result was shown in Fig. 4.
0.75 It could be found the system reliability decreased
0.70 periodically as the operation time increased. And the
reduction of reliability also presented higher signifi
0.65 cance when the operation time prolonged. This could
Basic model
0.60 Weather modified mainly caused by the failures of PV modules and
0.55 Weather and component modified inverters. For instance, the 1000 MW PV system usu
ally was composed of 1 × 104 inverters. For 10 years
200 400 600 800 1000 operation, these component might had only a 77%
PV generating capacity, MW probability of operating without failures. And then
taking the PV modules into a account, the total reli
Fig. 3. Reliability index in different PV models. ability would decrease to 70%.
0.95
0.90 4. CONCLUSIONS
Healthy state probability

0.85 Analyzing the reliability of PV system was signifi

cant to optimize decisions in design and service in
0.80 longterm. This paper described a comprehensive
0.75 model for evaluating the reliability of largescale and
0.70
gridconnected PV systems, through the sampling of
weather condition as well as critical component out
0.65 rage probability. Additionally based on this developed
0.60 model, the sequential MonteCarlo simulation proce
dure was also established. What’s more, the compara
0.55 tive research of the practicality and accuracy of the
0.50 models was conducted using the practical PV system
0 2 4 6 8 10 in western area of China.
Year The result showed that the reliability increased with
Fig. 4. Reliability index for PV system after ten years ope the increasing of system capacity. And the simulated
ration. value become more accurate when the model was

APPLIED SOLAR ENERGY Vol. 51 No. 4 2015

266 HAIYING WANG et al.
modified by weather condition. While for the fixed
capacity system, the influence of PV modules and
inverters failure probability was more significant as the
operation time increased. As a result, the reliability
decreased periodically as the operation time pro
longed.
Future work will focus on which types of mainte
nance are appropriate for the components of grid
connected PV system.
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APPLIED SOLAR ENERGY Vol. 51 No. 4 2015