ER100/200 & PubPol 184/284

Energy and Society

Lecture 2: Energy and Society

Professor Kammen

1. How Energy Use Shapes Society & the Environment

2. Units, forecasts, and ‘back of the envelope’

Last update: August 29, 2010

ER100 Lecture 2: page 1

 The Global & Local Context … and…
Tools for the Tasks
Given that energy is the largest commodity on the planet.

To examine this, we will need to learn and use a wide range of tools

We assume no specific tools & teach each we will need.

Modules on forecasting, combustion, thermodynamics, energy

economics, life-cycle methods, technology assessment & policy
analysis

ER100 Lecture 2: page 2

 Dung Patty Preparation in India

ER100 Lecture 2: page 3

 August 15, 2003: 8:15 PM

August 16, 2005—Speeding from the scene of the crime, a Chinese boy tows a floating plastic bag of stolen
natural gas last week.
ER100 Lecture 2: page 4
ER100 Lecture 2: page 5
ER100 Lecture 2: page 6
 „How I learned to stop worrying and love the bomb …‟
(Or, the nuclear side of learning to live with new energy issues)

ER100 Lecture 2: page 7 Progressive

1942... 2002...

ER100 Lecture 2: page 8

 Embrace the
Possibilities

•Engine downsized ~15% •Engine downsized ~33%

•Idle-off and regenerative braking •Larger battery and grid charging
•Efficiency increased ~50% •Energy for short trips is from grid
•Batter state of charge kept in narrow range •Deeper discharge of batteries

Plug in hybrid with cellulosic ethanol in the tank: 100+ miles per gallon
Breakthrough: stationary and mobile energy sources now linked

ER100 Lecture 2: page 9

 Getting Facile with Energy Units
1 barrel (bbl) of crude oil = 42 gallons = 6.12 x 109 joules
1 MToe = million tons of oil, equivalent = 1013 joules,

A useful unit calculator http://www.iea.org/statist/calcul.htm

Next lecture we will begin to use energy unit analysis to

analyze, both the technical and policy aspects of energy
conversion and use.

ER100 Lecture 2: page 10

 High & low carbon paths >900 ppm Trajectory
Energy by 2050:
Theoretical carbon • Coal over 2x, no Carbon
Capture & Storage (CCS),
emissions profiles some coal to liquids.
16 WRE 450 (IPCC) published in IPCC 3rd • Oil up 50%

WRE 550 (IPCC)

Assessment Report • Gas over 2x
• Biofuels make up 10% of
14 WRE 1000 (IPCC) vehicle fuel mix.
• Electricity 1/3 of final energy.
Global Carbon Emissions, GT

• Modest increase in nuclear.

• Renewables provide 1/3 of
12
electricity generation.
• Vehicle efficiency up 50%.

10
8 Energy by 2050:
6 2002 IEA reported fossil
emissions plus correction
for unsustainable biomass
4 & deforestation.
WRE1000 - we start planning now
2 energy).
WRE 550 - we start acting now
WRE 450 - we started to act in 2000, or …
0
2000 2010 2020
<550 ppm Trajectory
• Coal up 50%, but half of
power stations use CCS.
• Oil down 10-15%.
• Gas nearly 2-3x (note: adds
volatility)
• Green Hydrogen in use
• Strong shift to electricity as
final energy (~50% final
• Large increase in nuclear.
• Renewables provide half of
electricity generation.
• Vehicle efficiency up 100%
2030 2040 2050 • Sustainable biomass
practices

ER100 Lecture 2: page 11

 AB 32 Emissions Reductions
% Change from 1990 levels
50%
CEC Data

40% Business as Usual

AB 32 Scenario

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies, January 2007
ER100 Lecture 2: page 12
 The Cascade of Commitment:
IPCC Science, CA and US targets
3.0

Business as usual (EIA)

2.5
Historic U. S.
emissions
Administration intensity target
2.0
U.S. GHG Emissions (GT C eq.)

1.5

Kyoto protocol
1.0 EU Copenhagen plan
The Obama climate target
0.5 The California target
IPCC Assessment: Climate Stabilization Zone
0.0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Kammen, ―September 27, 2006 – A day to remember‖, San Francisco Chronicle, September 27,
ER100 Lecture 2: page 13
 Major U.S. Public R&D programs

red=defense, black=space, orange=health, blue=energy

ER100 Lecture 2: page 14
 Check the Units, carbon emissions is often expressed at gC/MJ, and
at present Global emissions are 16 gC/MJ, and global use is 420 EJ
so:

 16 gC / MJ
16 gC  10 J   1MJ   1ton   1GT 
18
  420EJ    6   6   9 
 MJ   EJ  10 J  10 g  10 tons 
18
6700x10 GT(C)
 6 6 9
10 x10 x10
 [7x10 ]/[10 ]GT(C)  7GT(C)
21 21
ER100 Lecture 2: page 15
 IPAT
• Often useful to think of environmental
impact as the product of three factors:

Impact = Population    Affluence    Technology 

 pollution   $   pollution 
    people    
 y   person  y  $ 
• Population will increase (in poor countries)
• Affluence should increase in poor countries
• Can improved technology offset rising
population and affluence?
ER100 Lecture 2: page 16
 The IPAT Identity
The controversial
"Ehrlich" identity is often
used to decompose
growth in resource use,
efficiency of resource
use, and emissions.

Impact  Population* Affluence * Technology

One version of this might be :

$ GDP  Energy[J] 
Energy Use [J]  Population    
ER100 Lecture 2: page 17
 
person   $ GDP 
 The IPAT Identity In Use:
$ GDP Energy[J]
Energy Use [J]  Population * *
person $ GDP
Or,
Energy Carbon
Carbon Emissions  Population * *
person Energy
If all are exponential, then we have a very simple formulation:

P = P1P2 …Pn
P = (p1er1t) (p2er2t)... (pnernt) = (p1p2...pn)e(r1+r2 + …rn)t
P = Pert

ER100 Lecture 2: page 18

 U.S. Energy & Economy

500
GNP
GDP
400
Energy
Carbon
Indexed 300
(1950=100)

200
Carbon
100
37% improvement
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Source: EIA, BEA, PCAST
ER100 Lecture 2: page 19
 U.S. Efficiency Improvements
Savings >$170 billion annually, since 1990

500

GDP
400

Indexed 300
(1950=100)

200
Carbon
100
37% improvement
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Source: EIA, BEA, PCAST
ER100 Lecture 2: page 20
 White‟s Law
“Culture advances as the quantity and quality of energy used
increases. This relationship can be captured formally as an
equation.”

C=kxExT
Leslie White, 1973

C = culture
E = energy
T = technology
k = scaling (efficiency) constant

ER100 Lecture 2: page 21

ER100 Lecture 2: page 22 Source: Scientific American Special Issue on energy 1970
 Market Mechanisms: A Response

ER100 Lecture 2: page 23 COP-6, The Hague, 2000

 A Young and Volatile Market

Source: Natsource

24

ER100 Lecture 2: page 24

 Disruption By Disturbance:
Natural Tradit’nl Industrial Other Human
Index Baseline Agriculture Energy Energy Activity Natural
Land Use 15 5 1.5
135 0.15
(106 km2) cultivated 2/3 sustainable cities, 0.15
ice-free land (2/3 hydro)
harvested fuelwood transport
Water 50,000 800
2,000 500 0.2
Use total runoff ? process,
irrigation cooling, evap
all other (of usable)
(km3/y) (2/3 unusable)

CO2 150 1 0.5

Emission 0.2 6.3
NPP forest cement, 0.004/y
fuelwood fossil-fuels
(GtC/y) (net primary
productivity)
clearing urbanizatn

CO2 594
Added preindustrial 100 40 280 10 0.35
(GtC) atmosphere
CH4 160 210
100 65
Emission wetlands, ruminants, ? natural gas, landfills, 2.3
(MtC/y) termites, paddies,
coal mines sewage
ocean burning

ER100 Lecture 2: page 25

 Disruption By
Natural Tradit’nl Industrial Other Human
Index Baseline Agriculture Energy Energy Activity Natural
Nitrogen 200 30 1
60
Fixation biological 1 fossil-fuel industrial 0.5
(MtN/y) fertilizer
fixation combustn processes
N2O 9 4.4 1.3
Emission oceans, soils, ? ? industrial 0.4
(MtN/y) soils ruminants processes
Sulfur 100 60
0.8 0.3 10
Emission decay, sea coal, oil 0.7
(MtS/y) burning burning smelting
spray burning
React HC 30 20
800 30 4
Emission combustn, Industrial 0.1
(Mt/yr) vegetation burning burning
refining processes

ER100 Lecture 2: page 26

 Disruption By
Natural Tradit’nl Industrial Other Human
Index Baseline Agriculture Energy Energy Activity Natural
PM 500 40 40 50
Emission sea spray, burning, 15
fossil-fuel industrial 0.3
(Mt/yr) volcanoes, wheat burning
dust handling combustn processes
Lead 25 230 100
Emission 0.4 0.2
volcanoes, gasoline metals 13
(ktPb/y) burning burning
dust additives production
Mercury 0.7 3 13
25 0.2
Emission burning, oil, coal mining, 0.7
(ktHg/y) outgassing biocides burning
burning mobilizatn
Oil 0.5 3 2
Emission natural tankers, lube-oil, 10
(Mt/y) seeps platforms waste
Radiation 800 1 150
(Mrem) radon, ? reactors, medical, 0.2
cosmic rays coal burning fallout

ER100 Lecture 2: page 27

 Quartiles of Change: 10,000 BC to mid-1980s
75%
Deforested area
Terrestrial vertebrate diversity
Carbon releases
Population size
Lead releases
Water withdrawals
Sulfur releases
Carbon tetrachloride production
Phosphorous releases
50% Nitrogen releases

25%
1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

ER100 Lecture 2: page 28

ER100 Lecture 2: page 29
ER100 Lecture 2: page 30
US energy use/$ GDP already cut 40%, to
very Amory
nearly Lovins‟
the 1976Soft Energy
“Soft Path: 1976
Energy
Pat1976h”
250

primary energy
consumption
(quadrillion BTU/year)
200
"hard path" projected by
industry and government
around 1975
150
actual total
consumption
reported by USEIA "soft path" proposed by
100 Lovins in 1976

coal
coal
oil and gas
50
soft technologies
oil and gas (which do not include big
hydro or nuclear)
nuclear
renewables
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
 Average
Berkeleyite
Energy Star
Average Home
Dane

ER100 Lecture 2: page 32

ER100 Lecture 2: page 33
 Per Capita Electricity Consumption

16,000

14,000 Red States 2004

United States
12,000 Blue States 2004
California
10,000
kWh/person

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
year
ER100 Lecture 2: page 34
 Consume Less! Generate More!
ER100 Lecture 2: page 35
ER100 Lecture 2: page 36
 Technology

Technology is both a blessing and a curse:

• Provides new goods and services, improves
human welfare
• Requires energy and resources, generates
wastes, all of which have environmental
impacts that decrease welfare
• Improved technologies can decrease impact
per unit good/service (scrubbers, fuel cells,
photovoltaics…)
ER100 Lecture 2: page 37
 Two Views
• Pessimists (“Mathusian” or “Cassandra”)
– Developed economies unsustainable; developing
cannot follow in their path; technology is not
keeping pace with resource depletion,
environmental impact
• Optimists (“Cornucopian” or “Dr. Pangloss”)
– No barriers to growth; substitutes will be
developed for scarce resources; economic
development and technology produce net
improvement in environmental quality

ER100 Lecture 2: page 38

 Simon offered to bet $1000 that
the price of any five commodities
would decrease from 1980 to
1990. Ehrlich et al. selected Cu,
Cr, Ni, Sn, W. Simon won.
Simon subsequently offered to bet
that any set of environ-mental
measures relating to human
welfare would get improve.
Ehrlich et al. selected CO2, N2O,
O3, temperature, SO2 in Asia,
tropical forest, per-capita grain
and fish, species, AIDS, sperm
counts, rich-poor gap.
Simon declined.

ER100 Lecture 2: page 39

 Only 4 of 47 elements increased in price over the last century
100.00

10.00
Price/Price in 2000

1.00

Ta
0.10

Tl
Sr

Cs
0.01
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

ER100 Lecture 2: page 40

ER100 Lecture 2: page 41
 Caution and a Method: Know the Trend:
Environmental Indicators vs. Income
“Kuznets Curves”

ER100 Lecture 2: page 42