2017: An Unlikely World

Social Studies
Predicting the Future
Introductory Questions
 When did people first start thinking that the future would be different than the past?
 Who benefits the most from accurate predictions of the future?
 Are predictions of the future too rooted in the present?
 Can a prediction ever be a certainty?
 Can predictions affect outcomes? If so, are they more likely to be self-fulfilling or self-destructive?
 As humans, are we able to comprehend truly large numbers (such as “1 in a million”) when we consider risk-related questions? If not, should
designing policies related to risk management be taken out of human hands?
 What might lead you to trust certain predictions over others?
 How often do unforeseeable events obstruct otherwise accurate predictions? Have you ever made a prediction only to have something completely
unexpected interrupt it?
Where will Tomorrowland Land? | Understanding Prediction
 The Supernatural and the Scientific: Foundations of Prediction
o From Oracle to Actuary: A History of Prediction
o Insights from Mathematics: Probability and Statistics
o Appointments in Samara: The Impacts of Prediction on Behavior
 Key Terms and Concepts
o Omens | Auguries | Self-Fulfilling Prophecy | Luck
o Prediction vs. Projection vs. Forecast | Causation vs. Correlation
o Sampling Error | Standard Deviation | Confidence Interval | Outliers
o Prediction Markets | Black Swans
 Notable Methods and Tools
o Sabermetrics | Actuarial Science | Predictive Modeling | Big Data
o Horoscope | Zodiac | I Ching | Tarot | Ouija | Tea Leaves | Palmistry
o Retrodiction | Nowcasting | Persistence Forecasting
Money Talks, but What is it Saying? | The Challenges of Economic Forecasting
 Uses, Purposes, and Applications
 Measuring Economic Conditions
 Analyzing Economic Indicators
 Issues with Economic Accuracy
Trumping the Pundits | Political Predictions and Election Forecasts
 Different Predictive Models
 The Primacy of Fundamentals vs. The Value of Polling
 Confounding Factors and Variables
How Off Are All the Bets? | Statistics and Predictions in Sports
 Sports Analytics and Forecasting
 Horsing Around: Betting and Bookmaking
 Mapping the Field: The Science of Bracketology
This Spells Disaster | Forecasting Natural Forces
 Predicting the Weather and Climate
 Understanding Natural Disasters:
o Earthquake | Tsunami | Volcano
o Hurricane
 Disaster Prevention and Mitigation
Specific Topics for Exploration
 Notable “Prophets”
o Nostradamus | Rasputin | Cassandra | Robert Fitzroy
o Michio Kaku | Ray Kurzweil | Nate Silver | Nate Cohn
o Hari Seldon | Paul the Octopus | Yoda | Sybill Trelawney
o Pāora Te Potangaroa | John Elfreth Watkins, Jr.
 Notable Predictions, Statements, and Laws
o Y2K Problem | 2012 Doomsday Phenomenon | Final Anthropic Principle
o The Called Shot | AIMA Prophecy | Benford’s Law | Schrodinger’s Cat
o Law of Truly Large Numbers | Littlewood’s Law | The Birthday Problem
Guided Cases
 Explore the idea of "big data" and its relationship to prediction. Then discuss with your team: why might "big data" be described as the comeback
of correlation over causation? How might it affect government policy, or the choices of a company such as Netflix?
 Explore the idea of a "black swan event" - a term popularized by the author Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Discuss with your team: what are some
examples of black swan events in real life? Should we try to prepare for them (can we?) or is the concept overrated?
 Does eating cheese make someone more likely to die of bedsheet entanglement? If not, what else could possibly explain this graph? Discuss as a
team: what is the difference between correlation and causation, and how can you tell one from the other?
 Consider the so-called Doomsday Clock, which attempts to measure how close we are to the end of human civilization. Discuss with your team: is
it accurately measuring the likelihood of the end of the world? Should scientists also create a "Bestdayever" Clock to balance it? If so, what factors
might this more optimistic clock consider? And is there any way in which something like the Doomsday Clock can itself be dangerous?
  Some of our white-collar criminals from last year might have done well to understand Benford's Law. Do you think it applies to World Scholar's
Cup team scores?
 Use the linked summary as a starting point from which to explore the science of (and policies related to) disaster prediction. To what degree can
potentially catastrophic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis be forecast ahead of time? Discuss with your team: should all credible forecasts
be made available to the public, and should those who ignore them be held responsible for their own safety?
 Discuss with your team: what makes psychohistory different from any other form of forecasting the future? What are its supposed limitations? Do
you think it (or something like it) could be developed in the real world? If so, what would be the implications, and would we want to limit access to
its findings, or spread them far and wide?
 Are you a lucky person? In recent years, there has been substantial research into whether luck is a real factor in human affairs. Read this
interview with psychologist Richard Wiseman, then discuss with your team: if luck is real, where does it come from, and is there a way to become
luckier (other than Felix Felicis)? Should lucky people receive less credit for their achievements?
 Will a team in yellow jackets win the Global Round? Will the Cavaliers repeat as NBA champions? A whole industry exists around predicting the
relative performances of sports teams, match by match and year by year. Discuss with your team: to what extent can (and should) sports
outcomes be modeled and/or predicted? Should sports teams use modern analytics to guide their strategies? Or is the best way to forecast
outcomes, in sports and beyond, through prediction markets (such as the defunct intrade.com) that harness the wisdom of crowds?
 In the run-up to the 2016 United States presidential election, near-legendary statistician and election forecaster Nate Silver was widely criticized
for giving Donald Trump too high a chance of defeating Hillary Clinton. Learn more about Nate Silver's history and approach, and explore his wider
body of work at fivethirtyeight.com. Then discuss with your team: how do election predictions work, and how *well* do they work? How can
different models based on similar data lead to such different predictions? And why were outcomes such as President Trump and Brexit considered
such monumental surprises despite each being one of only two choices in a binary system?
 Consider these forecasts by professional "futurists" of the world just a few years from now. Which seem most plausible? On what factors are their
predictions based? How far out in the future is it possible to make meaningful predictions? Do any of these futurists seem to have a political or
ideological agenda, and, if so, does it detract from the value of their predictions?
 Insurance companies depend on predictions of the future - or at least on the best possible measures of risk and uncertainty. They rely on
actuaries to make those measurements. Read this linked article, then consider new developments in predictive modeling in the context of actuarial
science. Discuss with your team: should companies such as Netflix be allowed to use data on our lifestyle and habits to predict our future
behavior? How about insurance companies, or governments? Should any information about us that might help with modeling our future behavior
and/or health be off limits to external analysis?
 Is anyone out there? Discuss with your team: how likely is it that other intelligent life exists in the universe? Why does it matter—or does it? Be
sure to consider possible explanations for the Fermi Paradox. Are any convincing?
 Consider a group of women who have survived against great odds, and even against the wishes of their government - the babushkas of
Chernobyl. Discuss with your team: are these women brave or foolish? Have they chosen the certainty of radiation exposure over the uncertainty
of starting a new life? Should their government allow them to assess and bear their own risk, or should it intervene to ensure their continued well-
being?
Concluding Questions
 What is the most unlikely thing that you have ever witnessed?
 What is the most unlikely thing that has ever happened to you?
 What do you think the world will be like in 10 years? In 100 years?
 Is it ethical to determine an athlete’s salary based on how well they are predicted to perform?
 Would you want to know the various likelihoods in your future—for instance, the likelihood that you have children, or live past sixty, or succeed in
your career?
 Do you believe in (even a little bit) any superstitions related to fortune-telling, such as zodiac signs?
 Whose predictions of the future do you trust the most?
2017: An Unlikely World
Science & Technology
To Shoot for the Moon
Sweet Dreams are Made of This | Introduction to Moonshots
 Research definitions of moonshots. How is a moonshot different than any other scientific or technological research project?
 For each of the following historical efforts, discuss with your team: would you consider it a moonshot? Was it successful?
 Polynesian Exploration | Global Circumnavigation | First Manned Flight | Supersonic Travel | Mind Control | The Creation of the
Internet
 Exhibit: Watch this inspirational introduction to moonshots, released by Google’s “X” division in 2013. Then, research the various
Google X “moonshots” since its founding. Have any failed? Have any succeeded? Discuss with your team: do they fulfill the
promise in the introductory video?
It’s Rocket Science | The Original Moonshot
 What does it mean that the United States and the Soviet Union were engaged in a Space Race in the 20th century? Who was
“winning” in 1960?
 Exhibit: Watch or read a transcript of U.S. President John F. Kennedy’s famous “we choose to go to the moon” speech.
 Basic science: The Physics of Rockets | The Moon
 Engineering considerations: The Design of the Lunar Module | The Apollo Space Suit
 What did the lunar landings discover about the moon?
 Key terms: rover | lunar module | command module | Saturn V | escape velocity | engine arming switch | steering rockets |
descent engine | ascent engine | gyroscope | Apollo 13
 Investigate the Soviet program to reach the moon. How close did it come to success, and how similar was it to the American
program?
 A question to consider: would it have still been a great achievement to land a man on the moon if it were just a one-way trip?
What if the Soviet Union had landed a man on the moon (but not returned him to Earth) and the United States had later landed a
man on the moon and returned him to Earth. Would the winner of the “race” have been less clear?
 Discuss with your team: is it unjust that the Apollo program did not give any women the opportunity to land on the moon?
 Return to the Moon: Have the United States and the Soviet Union continued their lunar explorations? What new countries have
launched lunar missions since the 1960s? Are their efforts moonshots? What is their scientific value?
Select Guided Cases (Explore Others in Similar Ways)
 A halfway-to-the-moonshot: consider the space elevator, a concept over a century old which, if executed, would allow remarkably
affordable transportation back-and-forth into Earth orbit. Famously depicted by science fiction authors such as Arthur C. Clarke
and Kim Stanley Robinson, is it something we could see built in our lifetimes? Research how a space elevator would work, then
discuss as a team: how different would the world be if we had inexpensive access to space? Would you rather see a space
elevator or, say, a manned mission to Mars?
 Explore a modern-day moonshot that could someday shoot us great distances at supersonic speeds: the hyperloop. Does the
fact that seemingly legitimate companies and well-known investors and entrepreneurs are working on the idea make it more
plausible? Discuss with your team: does this technology deserve the attention it is receiving, what are the greatest obstacles to
its success, and, if it did succeed, how much would it change the world?
 Building on ideas first proposed by Nikola Tesla in 1891, scientists and private ventures in the 21st century are finally trying to
make wireless electricity an everyday reality. Discuss with your team: how would wireless electricity work, what are the major
obstacles, and has something made it more possible today than in the past? Are there tangible benefits beyond reducing the
number of cables in your backpack? What would you say to someone who is afraid that wireless electricity sounds unsafe?
 Woolly mammoths, dodos, and various recent CGIosauruses: one modern-day moonshot suggests we could revive long-gone
species, provided we can find well-preserved samples of their DNA. Discuss with your team: should we be trying to revive extinct
species? If so, how would we choose which ones? Be sure to explore how this de-extinction process would work—what are the
requirements, and what are the dangers?
 Is landing among the stars good enough? In his final year in office, and motivated in part by the death of his vice president's son,
President Obama announced a moonshot to cure cancer—a moonshot that has inspired some controversy. Consider the
argument made in this article for why some moonshots succeed, and what it implies for the cancer moonshot and others. Be sure
to research the basic science behind promising new cancer treatments, such as those based on immunotherapy.
 Explore the various projects currently in the works to send probes and even humans to Mars. Which do you think are the most
likely to succeed? Read the linked article, then discuss with your team: are nations justified in taking nationalistic pride in their
extraterrestrial achievements? Are all these efforts worthwhile, and, if so, what gives them their value?
 Is geoengineering to change the world’s climate to human specifications—or even to reverse climate change—a potential
moonshot of the future? What would be the benefits and drawbacks? How has the prospect been received by the United Nations
and other international organizations? Is it possible such a technology could be used maliciously—and can something both have
destructive potential and be considered a moonshot?
Concluding Questions
 Read “The Secret to Moonshots? Killing Our Projects”. Then, discuss with your team: what makes a moonshot likely (or unlikely)
to succeed? What do you think the author means when he suggests that "enthusiastic skepticism" is the perfect partner of
"boundless optimism"? Should all moonshots follow an approach like the one described here?
 Are moonshots better off led by governments, for-profit companies, or non-profit organizations?
 Is the study of moonshots too focused on achievements in the Western world? Or, is the very idea of a moonshot rooted in
American ideology?
 What moonshots do you think will succeed in the next decade? Which ones will change your life?
 If you could work on an existing moonshot, what would it be?
 If you could design your own new moonshot, what would it be?
 Are we truly “a species of moonshots”?
 Do moonshots distract from smaller, more manageable achievements, or do they facilitate them?
2017: An Unlikely World

History
History of Conspiracy
Introductory Questions
 Why do people choose to believe in unlikely things, even in defiance of established fact?
 Why do people sometimes refuse to believe in likely things, even when confronted with significant evidence?
 When is it acceptable for a government to hide facts from the public?
 Do we have a moral responsibility to expose conspiracies?
 Have you ever questioned something you felt didn’t quite make sense?
The Theory of Conspiracy Theory
 Explore the work of theorists in the field—how do they categorize different kinds of conspiracies?
 Example theorists to research: Michael Barkun | Jesse Walker | Rob Brotherton | Frank Mintz
 Investigate the psychology of conspiracy believers—do believers in conspiracy theories tend to share certain traits?
 Are conspiracy theories a relatively new phenomenon, or have they been around for a long time?
 What is the difference between conspiracy and collaboration? How about between a conspiracy and a misconception? Does
there need to be intent to deceive for something to be a conspiracy?
By Any Means Necessary | Confirmed Historical Conspiracies
 Death of Julius Caesar | Assassination of Abraham Lincoln
 The Chemist’s War | July Plot | Rawalpindi Conspiracy
 Gunpowder Plot | Newburgh Conspiracy | Magnate Conspiracy
 Watergate | Russian “doping scandal”
Challenging the Narrative | Conspiracies Against History
 The “Faked” Moon Landing | Ghost Cosmonauts of Sputnik 4
 Pearl Harbor | Sydney Hilton Bombing | 9/11
The Lie at the End of the Tunnel | Conspiracies Around Life and Death
 Deaths: JFK | Princess Diana | Subhas Chandra Bose | Paul McCartney
 Deaths?: Adolf Hitler | Elvis Presley | Tupac | Kurt Cobain
Of Profit and Privateers | Conspiracies for Profit
 Streetcar conspiracy | Hemp conspiracy | Sugar conspiracy
 Lysine price-fixing conspiracy | Apple e-book pricing
Chasing the Absurd | Conspiracies Against Reason
 Illuminati | Black Helicopters | Lizard People
 Aliens in the Ancient World | Global Warming “Hoax”
 Area 51 | Origins of HIV/AIDS | The Montauk Project
 New World Order | “Pizzagate” | Pokemon Go | Zika Immunity
Additional Terms to Research (examples)
 conspiracism | bias confirmation | falsifiability | pseudohistory
 truthiness | post-truth | false flag | mainstreaming
 attitude perseverance | illusory correlation | selective exposure
 schema theory | apophenia | pareidolia | gaslighting
Select Guided Cases (Explore Others in Similar Ways)
 Consider the Moai statues of Rapa Nui—a seemingly unlikely achievement by a seemingly unlikely civilization. Do we know with
certainty how they came to be, or what happened to the people who created them? Are there works elsewhere that have inspired
similar historical controversy?
 Look into the alleged UFO crash in Roswell in 1947 and at the many conspiracy theories it inspired. Also investigate "Area 51"
and other alleged cover-ups of extraterrestrials among us. Discuss with your team: do you think there is any truth to them? Does
the government have a responsibility to release all information related to UFO "sightings" to the public?
 Have any of you played Pokemon Go in China? If so, you might be helping enemies of China (including the governments of
Japan and the United States) locate Chinese military bases - at least, according to one widespread conspiracy theory last
summer. Discuss as a team: does this theory seem plausible? Who, if anyone, is responsible for responding to theories like this
one? What do you think motivates them in the first place?
 Consider the Internet conspiracy theory - seemingly originating, not unlike a virus, from a single tweet - that Americans were
somehow immune from Zika. What can we learn from the existence and widespread propagation of such a theory?
 That humans never actually landed on the moon is only the most famous conspiracy theory related to the space race.
Consider this claim—popularized by a science fiction writer—that the first person in space was sent out there to die. Then
discuss as a team: why would it have been considered such a disgrace for the Soviet Union to launch such a mission? Would it
have made a difference if the cosmonaut in question had chosen to make the sacrifice.
 Some historians have argued that the thriving streetcar networks in early 20th century American cities met their demise at the
hands of a conspiracy—one led by a company, General Motors, with a vested interest in selling buses and private cars. Read
the attached article, then discuss as a team: who was really to blame for the death of the American streetcar, and could it have
been saved? Is this story an example of people wanting simple explanations for complex events? And have there been any
similar developments in the history of public transportation in your own cities and countries?
 Some philosophers and scientists sincerely believe that we are all very likely to be living inside a vast computer simulation.
Discuss with your team: why is this arguably outlandish theory generally *not* seen as a conspiracy theory?
Questions for Further Discussion
 From Pearl Harbor to the bombing of the Sydney Hilton in 1978, conspiracy theories have suggested that governments have
allowed (or even perpetrated) attacks on their own soil to benefit their political agendas. Research these and similar examples,
then discuss as a team: what do you think motivates such seemingly extreme theories? Would, in fact, a government ever be
justified in allowing an attack to take place?
 Many people conflate conspiracy theories and allegations of covert operations by intelligence agencies such as the CIA and
MI6—for instance, the confirmed John Wilkes Booth-led conspiracy to assassinate Abraham Lincoln versus also-confirmed CIA
involvement in the military coup that overthrew Chilean president Salvador Allende. Is there a meaningful difference between
these two categories of activities? If so, what is the line between a conspiracy and a secret government operation?
 If a tendency to believe in unfounded conspiracy theories is in part the result of underlying psychiatric conditions (such as a
tendency toward paranoia), should particularly devoted conspiracy theorists be offered medical treatment?
 Should people who propagate conspiracy theories knowing they are false be subject to criminal prosecution or some other kind
of punishment?
 Whenever two or more companies agree to fix prices in a market, or to engage in other non-competitive behavior, are they
conspiring against the public interest? In other words, are all economic cartels examples of conspiracies?
 Should terrorist groups and other dissident movements consider using conspiracy theories as a way to undermine faith in
economic and governmental institutions?
 Not all conspiracy theories are tremendous in scale. What are some examples of smaller conspiracies (confirmed or theorized)
you have come across in your own school or community?
2017: An Unlikely World

Literature
Voices of the Almost Impossible
Guiding Questions
 How does each selection relate to this year’s theme?
 What are the advantages and disadvantages of each genre for exploring the strange, the unusual, and the improbable? I.e., is a
television show a better venue for a story about aliens than a poem?
 How does literature help us make sense of the unlikely human condition?
 What is the role of literature in a world that increasingly values more practical fields such as science, technology, engineering,
and math? Is literature ultimately just entertainment?
 How does literature help us explore alternate lives and worlds? Does reading literature helps us develop empathy for those unlike
ourselves, or is that asking too much of it?
Poems
 A Statistician to His Love | Peter Goldsworthy
 Ode to an Artichoke | Pablo Neruda
 Maybe All This & Thoughts Haunting Me in Busy Streets | Wisława Szymborska
 Flowers | Wendy Cope
 Hope is the thing with feathers | Emily Dickinson
 Praise | Robert Hass
 Kubla Khan | Samuel Taylor Coleridge
 The Road Not Taken | Robert Frost
 The Alphabet Conspiracy | Rita Mae Reese
 Another Planet | Dunya Mikhail
 Happiness | Jane Kenyon
 Lucky | Tony Hoagland
 Mars Haiku Contest | Assorted
Drama & Film
 Pushing Daisies (Season 1, Episode 1)
 Julius Caesar (Act III, Scene 2) | William Shakespeare
 Back to the Future (1985)
Longer Works
 The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy (excerpt) | Douglas Adams
 Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, Chapters I and II | Lewis Carroll
 An Occurrence at Owl Creek Bridge | Ambrose Bierce
 Death and What Comes Next | Terry Pratchett
 The Colomber | Dino Buzzati
 Every Day (Day 5994) | David Levithan
 Why I Left Harry’s All-Night Hamburgers | Lawrence Watt-Evans
 The Weight of Memories | Liu Cixin
 A Very Old Man with Enormous Wings | Gabriel Garcia Marquez
2017: An Unlikely World

Special Area
Modern Mythologies
Introductory Questions
 What is a myth? How does it differ from a fable or a story?
 Who decides what myths are true?
 Why do we need mythologies? What purpose do they serve?
 If most people believe something to be true, can it still be a myth?
 What is a mythology? How does it differ from a religion?
 Are myths necessarily about unlikely things, or can myths be about normal or predictable people and scenarios?
 What does the phrase “the Myth of Normality” mean to you?
 How does a mythology reflect a society? How does a mythology affect a society?
 Can myths only be myths in hindsight?
 Does the modern world need myths more than the ancient world did, or less? Does it need them in different ways?
 In the modern world, to find believers, do new myths need to appear to have factual or scientific backing?
 For each of the individuals mentioned in the “Modern Mythmaking” section: Discuss with your team whether the following
modern-day figures have been mythologized and, if so, why, how, and when this process took place. Do you think they would
consent to being mythologized?
 Is it ever ethical to perpetuate a myth under the guise of solid truth? Can you think of situations in which it would be justifiable to
do so?
Understanding Mythology
 Mythologies, Cosmologies, and Articles of Faith
 The Appeal of Myth: Insights from Psychology and Sociology
 Science Versus Mythology: Are Myths Unfalsifiable?
 Mechanisms of Creation and Spreading
o Oral Tradition | Ritual | Rumor | Documentation
 Interactions Between Myth, Society, and Culture
 Relevant Terms to Explore (Examples)
o comparative mythology | national myth | pseudoscience
o monomyth | mythomoteur | miracle | underdog
o noble lie | alternative fact | skepticism
Mythologies of Old
 Beyond the Big Bang: Myths of World-Making (Examples)
o Cosmic Egg | Gaia | Barton Cylinder | Odin and Ymir
o Unkulunkulu | Naba Zid-Wendé | Dreamtime | Rangi and Papa
 Myths of Nature (Examples)
o Flint Boys | Chang’e | Son Tinh and Thuy Tinh
o Deucalion | Igorot Flooding | Namazu and Kashima
 Myths of Unlikely Circumstance (Examples)
o Sisyphus | Pandora’s Box | Kappa | Odin’s Eye
o Ragnarok | Kalki | Maitreya | Worldwide Floods
Mythmaking in the Modern World
Two Men Enter and Two Men Exit: Myths in Sports
 The Role of Myth in Competition
 Sporting Myths, Curses, and Misconceptions
o Madden Curse | Jesse Owens’ Handshake | The Billy Goat Curse
o Gladiators | Phantom Punch | The Curse of the Bambino
 Mythical Athletes (Examples)
o Michael Jordan | Fanny Blankers-Koen | Martina Navratilova
o Muhammed Ali | Jackie Robinson | Wayne Gretzky
o Babe Ruth | Rudy Ruettiger | Usain Bolt | Pelé
Success Without Really Trying: Myths in Business
 The Role of Myth in Entrepreneurship
 Business-Related Myths
o “First Mover Advantage” | “Elevator Pitch” | “Founder's Syndrome”
o “Start-Up Garage” | “You Need a Great Idea”
 Mythical Figures in Business (Examples)
o Steve Jobs | Dhirubhai Ambani | Oprah Winfrey | Richard Branson
o Mark Zuckerberg | Carlos Slim | Bill Gates | Donald Trump
Hindsight is Rose-Colored: Myths in History and Politics
 The Mythical Origins of National Identity and Political Power
 Myths of Nation-Building (Examples)
o Romulus and Remus | The American West
o The Long March | The Death of Saint Olaf
o The Alamo | Rainbow Nation | Albina Myth
 Mythical Figures and Leaders (Examples)
 o Nelson Mandela | Ataturk | Barack Obama | Kim Il-sung
o Lee Kuan Yew | Margaret Thatcher | Mao Zedong | Nero
Myths and Misconceptions
 The Psychology of Belief and Misbelief
o Intersections of Modern Myths and Conspiracy Theories
 Stranger Things: Rumors, Misbeliefs, and Urban Legends (Examples)
o Bloody Mary | Jedi Census | Sewer Alligators | Bigfoot
o Napoleon’s Height | Einstein’s Grades | Bermuda Triangle
o George Washington’s Tree | Gremlins | Cokelore
o Discovery of Gravity | “Let them eat cake”
 Easy Answers: Generalizations and Stereotypes (Examples)
o Frontier Myth | Model Minority Myth | Myth of Asian Values
o Mobility Myth | Myths Related to Crime and Immigration
 Invisible Dragons: Pseudosciences as Modern Myth
o Cryptozoology | Parapsychology | Homeopathy
o Astrology | Feng Shui | Ufology | Hollow Earth
o Eugenics | Pagtatawas | Alchemy
Selected Guided Cases and Questions
Legends of Yesterday
 “The Long March” of Mao Zedong is considered by many to be modern China’s “founding myth”—a politically-charged story that
has inspired both admiration and criticism. Discuss with your team: does it matter whether the Long March is remembered as a
triumph of perseverance and principle or, as some claim, “nearly a complete failure”? Compare the Long March to similar myths
in other nations, such as that of Valley Forge in the American Revolution. Do leaders have a responsibility to present their
nation’s histories accurately, even if it means undermining long-held beliefs?
 Consider the controversial “Kosovo Myth”—centered on a 14th century battle for dominion of Kosovo—which has been used in
Serbia over the centuries as a source of nationalism and as a motivation for wars of conquest. Discuss with your team: is a
national identity less legitimate if it is based on something that may never have happened, or on something that happened
differently than it is remembered? Do you agree with political scientist Stephen Van Evera’s description of such nationalism as
“myth-poisoned nationalism”?
 Whether by accident or design, myths frequently spring up around great leaders, in which they can do no wrong—indeed,
George Washington could never tell a lie—but mythical narratives can also inspire a backlash. Explore criticisms of the myths
around widely-idealized figures such as Martin Luther King, Nelson Mandela, and Mahatmas Gandhi, and discuss with your
team: can anyone so well-regarded withstand such critical analysis?
 Most (if not all) countries are said to have “national myths” about their identity, purpose, and character. Consider this study
of Australians and their national “myth” and then discuss with your team: is it very different than what you might expect a similar
study to reveal about your own nation? Can a country ever have a negative national myth—and what might be the consequences
for one that did?
Three Untruths and a Lie
 Consider the Loch Ness Monster, the Yeti, the skrimsli, and the chupacabra: what explains the enduring appeal of such
implausible creatures, and how are they different (if at all) from ancient myths of fantastical beasts such as centaurs, mermaids,
and unicorns? Discuss as a team: are there any downsides to a world in which the advance of knowledge has (presumably) left
less room for “here there be dragons” on the map—and has it driven people to invent new, harder-to-disprove mythologies?
 Did rhinoceroses inspire tales of unicorns? Did manatees make sailors think of mermaids? Are chupacabras just coyotes with
mange? Revisit the Nubian Giraffe and explore how people have made sense of unfamiliar and unlikely animals over the
centuries—as when German artist Albrecht Durer’s armored rhinoceros was taken as literal truth. Discuss with your team: how
do our knowledge and expectations affect our ability to understand the new and strange?
 Did Margaret Thatcher invent soft-serve ice-cream? Discuss with your team: why would such a myth take hold, and what does it
suggest about what we want to believe about our leaders? Are the mythologies society constructs around women different in kind
than those it does around men? Be sure to consider other famous women of our era—from Mother Theresa to Oprah Winfrey–as
you think about these questions.
 One common myth is that you can catch a cold from being outside in the cold—especially without a coat on. Consider this and
other popular misunderstandings about health and disease (such as the idea that walking barefoot can give you a stomachache)
which persist in the modern era. How are they different from past beliefs—such as the effectiveness of bloodletting—that have
been discredited? Discuss with your team: is it ironic when someone who believes modern myths disparages ancient ones?
 Consider how the same myth can evolve in different cultures: for instance, the tooth fairy in many English-speaking countries
versus El Ratón (the rat) in much of the Spanish-speaking world. Discuss with your team: why would so many parts of the
world create mythological explanations or traditions around something as seemingly trivial as the loss of a tooth? What other
similar myths exist?
The Limits of Occam’s Razor
 Conventional wisdom has it that, in 1975, Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak built their first computer in a garage—and that many
other great companies have begun in the same way, from Hewlett Packard to Amazon. But is the idea that great companies so
frequently begin in garages a modern myth? Consider Steve Wozniak’s own recollections, and then discuss with your team: what
is so appealing about the myth of the start-up in the garage?
 Abraham Lincoln was born in a log cabin; Oprah Winfrey’s name was misspelled on her birth certificate. These two myths—one
misleading, one untrue—speak to the appeal of assigning great figures humble beginnings. Discuss with your team: are a
person’s achievements worth less if they had greater access to opportunity?
 Consider the unlikely triumph of the United States in men's hockey at the 1980 Winter Olympics—the so-called "Miracle on Ice"
(for one side, at least) that for Americans became part of what some saw as a nearly mythical battle between good and evil.
What other similar "miracles" can you think of? Discuss with your team: does an athletic triumph need to be unexpected—an
“underdog story”—to inspire a city, or a nation, or the world? And is the idea that people favor underdogs itself a myth?
 Along the same lines, explore this feel-good story of the Jamaican bobsled team from the 1988 Olympics. Then, discuss with
your team: why is it a feel-good story? Why are we (and Disney movie-makers) drawn to tales of underdogs who make it big, of
Davids who defeat Goliaths, of Cinderellas who get the prince (or princess) in the end? Would you rather enter a competition as
a returning champion or as someone given no chance of victory?
  Perhaps the opposite of a miracle: consider sporting myths related to failure—perhaps most famously the Curse of the Bambino,
which supposedly prevented the Boston Red Sox (an American baseball team) from finding success over the course of nearly 90
years. Are some teams truly less lucky than others? Discuss with your team: do so-called curses exist because fans want them
to exist?
 The philosopher Karl Popper suggested that a real science is one in which results are falsifiable, or can be disproven. The
sociologist Robert Merton proposed that science must follow norms such as openness to disagreement and lack of an ideological
mission. Discuss with your team: can mythologies and other beliefs in seemingly unlikely things be evaluated in similar ways, and
should they?
Questions for Further Discussion
 Does mythologizing a real-life person strengthen or weaken them?
 Are what we consider to be religions simply the mythologies that won?
 Put another way: is one person’s religion someone else’s mythology?
 Two years ago, we explored heroes and superheroes. Are modern mythical figures necessarily heroic?
 One year ago, we explored crime and justice. Can you think of any examples of mythical criminals?
 Is the mythologizing of historical figures (such as Alexander Hamilton) a net positive or negative in our understanding of history?
 Are pseudosciences the most widespread and impactful mythologies of the modern world, or does this distinction belong to
widely-known stories such as Star Wars and Harry Potter?
 Are there any pseudosciences you find especially attractive, or any modern-day myths you believe in, or want to believe in?
 What myths do your parents, teachers, and/or other elders believe in, if any, that you reject?
2017: An Unlikely World

Art & Music

Fragments of an Improbable Universe
How to Approach the Selections
For each work, consider how it and/or its creator might relate to this year’s theme. Has it been made in an unconventional way? Does it have an improbable
meaning or depict an unlikely subject? Was it received in a surprising manner? Has the creator overcome unexpected obstacles in his or her career? Though
the works have been categorized for your convenience, you will find that many relate to the theme in multiple ways. Later in this outline you will find some
guided questions for some of the selections; you can use them as models as you explore the others.
Set I | Unexpected Forms and Inspirations
Art
 Habitat | Glenda León
 The Artist is Present | Marina Abramović
 Collective Success | Samsul Arifin
 Maracana | Nelson Leirner
 Bombs in Love | Kiki Kogelnik
 Cube Houses | Piet Blom
 Tongari-Kun | Takashi Murakami
 Untitled (2001) | Maurizio Cattelan
 “Yammy at Home” and “Deep Breathing” | Cao Fei
 Nightmare of George V | Huang Yong Ping
 The Makoko Floating School| Kunlé Adeyemi
Music
 Symphonie fantastique | Hector Berlioz
 Fugue in G Minor K. 30 | Domenico Scarlatti
 Murder Ballades: Omie Wise | Eighth Blackbird
 Alexander Hamilton | Lin-Manuel Miranda
 Piano Quintet No. 1, 1st Movement | Louise Farrenc
 Köln Concert | Keith Jarrett
Set II | The Unlikely Days of Our Lives
Art
 Convertible | Gerald Laing
 David with the Head of Goliath | Caravaggio
 The Nubian Giraffe | Jacques-Laurent Agasse
 Retroactive I | Robert Rauschenberg
Music
 La valse d’Amélie | Yann Tiersen
 Forrest Gump Main Theme | Alan Silvestri
 Miracle of Miracles | Jerry Bock and Sheldon Harnick
 Epochal Times | Bii, Andrew Tan, Ian Chen, and Dino Leex
 Lost Boy | Ruth B
 Ironic | Alanis Morissette
 Dream Lantern | Radwimps
 Romeo and Juliet | Dire Straits
 I'll Make a Man Out of You | Matthew Wilder & David Zippel
Set III | Peering at a Strange Universe
Art
 In the Ocean of Storms | Alexei Leonov
 Concept Sketches for Star Trek Aircraft | Rick Sternbach
 Into the Wild | Jakub Rozalsk
 Saturn as Seen from Titan | Chesley Bonestell
Music
 Drops of Jupiter | Train
 Space Oddity | David Bowie
 The Planets, 1st Movement | Gustav Holst
 Moonwalk | Michael Jackson
 Polaris | Thomas Ades
 La Création du monde | Darius Milhaud
 The Unanswered Question | Charles Ives
Set IV | The Many Faces of Chance
Art
 Horses Running Endlessly | Gabriel Orozco
 Fortune Teller and the Cat | Hamed Nada
 Conditional Risk | xkcd
 Jackpot Machine | Wayne Thiebaud
 The Illusionist | Sigmar Polke
Music
 Over the Rainbow | Harold Arlen and E. Y. Harburg
 Shape of My Heart | Sting
 If I Could Turn Back Time | Cher
 Nostradamus | Al Stewart
 Why does it Always Rain On Me | Travis
 Păpăruda | Surorile Osoianu
 When I Grow Up | Tim Minchin
Guided Questions (Samples)
 Discuss with your team: can chess be used as a metaphor for anything in real life? If so, what might we learn from this version of a chessboard? If
not, is its disconnectedness from reality the source of chess's enduring appeal?
 Is the artist of Habitat implying something about the world we inhabit? Be sure to consider the larger sweep of her career, including works such as
"Hairdo for a Silent Moment". What seems to most draw her artistic attention?
 The Makoko School’s seemingly unlikely approach to building a school has been celebrated as a sensible architectural solution. What problem is it
solving, and why might its innovative approach be even more relevant in the future? What is its current condition, and are other schools like it in
the works? Be sure to bring your discussion home: how would you describe the design of your own school, and does it have an impact on your
student experience?
 Paintings of controversial events can themselves become objects of controversy. Consider why this might be as you examine Gerald Laing's
"Convertible", which spent many years out of public view.
 Discuss this vision of something far less unlikely than it might seem in retrospect, co-created by a cosmonaut who could have been the first man
on the moon. Can a depiction of something that never happened still be authentic?
 Consider this "retroactive" work by Robert Rauschenberg and the elements of his era that might have inspired it. If you had to make a similar
retroactive of our own time, what would you include?
 Consider Jakub Rozalski's painting "Into the Wild"—from a series in which he imagines an entirely alternate version of the 1920s in his native
Poland. There are alternate histories based on one thing changing—all the way down to the death of a butterfly—and there are others that play
freely with the laws of time and space. This work belongs to the latter category. Discuss as a team: what can we learn by juxtaposing reality and
fantasy (or the past, present, and future) in such an improbable way? Is this painting a work of art or simply entertainment?
 This well-known piece by the 20th century artist Hamed Nada is said to blend (perhaps uneasily) elements of superstition and modernity he
encountered in his homeland of Egypt. With that in mind, consider: is fortune-telling a particularly Egyptian cultural tradition, or is it something
more universal—and does it (and superstition more broadly) still have a role in the world today? Be sure to conspire with your team to analyze this
work's finer details. For instance, why might it feature a cat instead of some other animal, and why might the cat be lounging on a chair while the
fortune teller squats on the ground?
 Discuss with your team: is it possible that a better understanding of risk could put you at greater risk?
 Consider this French modernist composer's rhapsody on the beginning of the world itself. Is the biggest moonshot of all the making of a planet?
How does the composer capture the feeling of such a moment?
 Fame may have been unlikely in her lifetime - explore the reasons why as you listen to this remarkable piano quintet.
 Consider the “sacred geometry of chance”. Does being unlikely make something more sacred?
 Explore the story of Amélie and the ways in which she interacts with the lives of others in her community. How does it relate to the ideas of destiny
and chance? Does this musical theme capture the heart of the storyline?
 Children can predict the future too. Listen to this song from the musical Matilda, then discuss as a team: what common mistake in future
forecasting are these children making as they predict what life will be like when they "grow up"? If you met these children, would you try to clear up
their misconceptions - or is it possible that even "bad" predictions can be an important source of hope? What predictions do you have about your
own future that might seem unlikely (or even naive) to someone older than you?
Concluding Questions
 Can some stories only be told through unlikely genres?
 To what extent does the medium of a work affect its message?
 In art, is there a relationship between spontaneity and value?
 How can unlikely stories be told in unlikely ways?
 To what extent can artists utilize unlikely media and still have their work be considered art?
 Can an unlikely artwork be the solution for a difficult problem?
 What effect does music with lyrics have versus music without? Can these two types of music tell different stories?