Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

USS Carl Vinson to Visit
Vietnam: What is the Message?
February 27,2018

Q1. The USSCorlVinson will visitTien Sa port in Da Nang, not Cam Ranh Baythat has
received many international warships. Why do you think Da Nang was chosen over
Cam Ranh for the first visit by a U.S. aircraft carrier?

ANSWER: After the issue of a visit by a U.S. aircraft carrier to Vietnam was raised, it
was necessary to determine if the technical conditions could be met at the Cam Ranh
lnternational Port (not the Cam Ranh Bay military port). ln other words, could the
carrier dock or would it have to moor and send its crew in boats from the ship to the
shore. ln addition, the United States likes to engage in a number of civic activities with
the local population, Cam Ranh lnternational Port is relatively isolated. Da Nang was
most likely chosen for three reasons: the ship could physically dock at Tien Sa port;
civic, social and sporting activities could be held nearby; and some of the crew could
be given shore leave to explore a large Vietnamese city. Of course, Da Nang is well
known to Americans.

Q2. ln the past, many U.S. Navy guided missile destroyers also visited the Tien Sa port
in Da Nang. Willthe visit by USS CorlVinson this time have any other symbolic meaning
in terms of displaying maritime power? And will this send any message regarding the
South China Sea?
ANSWER: The USS Carl Vinson is a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier with a crew of 6,700. lt
is often compared to a floating city. lt
is usually accompanied by a protective screen
of destroyers and other ships. The U55 Corl Vinson aircraft carrier is the epitome of
modern naval power. The message the USS Corl Vinson sends is that the U.S. will
maintain its naval presence in the South China Sea and that Vietnam supports the
presence of the U.S. Navy as long as it contributes to regional peace and stability.

Q3. ln your assessment, will this visit mark a new phase of naval cooperation between
Vietnam and the U.S.?
ANSWER: The precedent will be set bythe visit of the USS Carl Vinson that the U.S.
may arrange visits by other aircraft carriers from time to time. Earlier, Vice Minister of
National Defence and Senior Lt. Gen. Nguyen Chi Vinh flew out to the USS CarlVinson
to observe flight observations off the U.S. West Coast city of San Diego. lt is clear that
Vietnam and the United States are poised to step up defence cooperation but this is
likely to involve mainly defence technology and some arms sales.
 2

Q4. Although the Trump administration has increased the frequency of freedom of
navigation operational patrols (FONOPS), these patrols have not met forceful
opposition from China as occurred during the Obama Administration. ln your
assessment, what are the Chinese plans to counter the US' FONOPS in the South China
Sea?

ANSWER: The annual plan for freedom of navigation operational patrols approved by
President Trump last May envisaged two or three patrols a month. At the same time
the Pentagon declared that they were routine patrols and would not give them
publicity when they occurred but would provide an annual report to Congress. This
means that the public is only aware of FONOPs when China decides to publicize them.

China will not take any physical action to obstruct U.S Navy ships operating in the
South China Sea. lt will follow them and engage them in bridge-to-bridge
communications. The Chinese usually ask that the US identify themselves and their
purpose. China is trying to assert sovereignty. On occasion, Chinese pilots harass U.S.
aerial reconnaissance planes but this had died down recently. China is unlikely to
provoke a physical confrontation by trying to stop a U.S. warship, although there have
been incidents in the past. China will continue to make protests. More significantly,
China will consolidate its military presence on its artificial islands and claim this is in
self-defence because of U.S. actions.
The Trump Administration's annual FONOP plan suggested that U..S military aircraft
might accompany surface ships. Quite separately the US maintains a continuous
bomber presence by flying bombers over the South China Sea.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "USS Carl Vinson to Visit Vietnam: What is the
Message?," Thayer Consultoncy Background Brief , February 27, 2078. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Brief
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Carl Vinson Visit to Da
U,S^S
Nang: Implications, Future
Defence Relations and China's
Reactions

March 1, 2018
,nql

Our clients are deeply interested in the first visit by a US aircraft carrier to Vietnam.
With the permission from the Vietnamese government, a group of U.S. navy ships,
ilxM
including the aircraft carrier USS Corl Vinson, guided missile cruiser IJSS Loke
Chomploin and destroyer U55 Woyne E. Meyer will visit Da Nang City from March 5-9.
We request your assessment of the following issues:

Q1. What is the meaning and implications of this visit?

ANSWER: Vietnam approved the visit of the USS Corl Vinson and its escort ships for
two reasons. First, Vietnam has been reassured by the Trump Administration that it
will enhance their comprehensive partnership. Vietnam has responded by permitting
the first visit of a U.S. aircraft carrier since the American/Vietnam War. Second,
Vietnam has always welcomed the presence of the U.S. Navy in the South China Sea
as long as it contributes to regional peace and stability. The USS Carl Vinson is the
heart of a naval strike force of immense military power. This visit signals that the
United States intends to remain engaged in Southeast Asia and will counter-balance
China's efforts to intimidate regional states. Once the precedent of this visit by a U.S.
aircraft carrier has been set, it is likely Vietnam will host future annual visits.
Q2. Could you assess the defense and security relations in general and the defense
and security cooperation in particular between Vietnam and U.S. after the aircraft
carrier visit and in the future?
ANSWER: Defence and security relations among the major powers in East Asia will be
dominated by North Korea and the proliferation of nuclear weapons and their means
of delivery. At present, there is no indication that North Korea will step back from its
objective of acquiring nuclear armed intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of
striking the U.S. mainland.
But the recent Winter Olympic games held in South Korea appear to have provided
the opportunity for a shift to diplomacy rather than confrontation. There is no
certainty in the outcome. lt is solely up to Kim Jong-un whether to resume his
provocative brinkmanship in light of UN sanctions and increased U.S. sanctions. This
issue hangs over all other security issues in the Asia-Pacific.
 2

The U.S. and China are set to confront each other in the South China Sea but both
sides will be careful to manage this to avoid escalating tensions. We will see
continuous U.S. freedom of navigation patrols and joint naval exercises between the
United States and its allies and security partners. The United Kingdom has announced
it will conduct one freedom of navigation patrol this year. Australia is under pressure
from President Trump to join the U.S. Navy. China will make a show of monitoring
these patrols but will not directly impede the passage of foreign warships.
U.S.-Vietnam defence relations are poised to enter a new phase, with Vietnam likely
to step up defence procurements after President Obama lifted restrictions on arms
sales. lt should be noted that in the 31st May 2Ot7 joint statement between President
Trump and Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Phuc "expressed interest in acquiring
more defense equipment from the United States, including addition Coast Guard
cutters," Vietnam has reportedly spent U.S. S79 million on twenty-six purchases. This
is likely to increase this year.

Q3. Some Vietnamese officials and scholars are worried that the aircraft carrier visit
will anger China and it will do something aggressive in the South China Sea during or
after the visit such as placing an oil platform in Vietnamese waters or imposing an Air
Defence ldentification Zone in the sea. Note: the ship will start visiting Vietnam on
March 5 when the first session of China's National People's Congress opens to discuss
many important issues. Recently, a Japanese defense official stated that Japan and the
U.S. will conduct joint military exercises in the South China Sea this year. What is your
assessment about the possibility of such things happening?

ANSWER: China itself hosts U.S. aircraft carrier visits to Hong Kong. ln late January, a
spokesperson for Ministry of Foreign Affairs said China had no objections to the visit
of the IJSS Corl Vinson as long as such cooperation benefits regional peace and
stability. Given this statement, China is unlikely to put an oil drilling rig in Vietnam's
EEZ. The |JSS CorlVinson will only be in Da Nang for four or five days. lt is needed off
the Korean peninsula.
A single visit by a U.S. aircraft carrier is unlikely to provoke China, but the persistent
presence of U.S. naval forces in the South China Sea, conducting joint exercises with
other countries such as Japan and Australia, and a step up in freedom of navigation
operational patrols will result in China responding with high profile naval activities.
The real issue is what comes after China's final consolidation of facilities on its artificial
islands. This turning point appears to be near. China could at short notice deploy
military aircraft to its runways on Fiery Cross, Subi and Mischief Reef. These could be
temporary rotations that over time establish a continuous Chinese presence. Once
Chinese military aircraft deployments on its artificial islands become the new normal,
China could declare an ADIZ but is unlikely to do so if it cannot enforce it effectively.

China will continue to militarize the South China Sea at its own pace and justify its
actions as self-defence.
 a
J

to Da Nang: lmplications,
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "USS CorlVinson Visit
Future Defence Relations and China's Reactions," Thoyer Consultoncy Bockground
Brief, March L, 20L8. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for
Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject
heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in2OO2.