ORDEN DATOS OBSERVADOS FRECUENCIA.

F NO OCURRENCIA Zi P(X≤Xi)
1 600 0.16667 0.83333 1.26 0.897
2 500 0.33333 0.66667 0.63 0.736
3 400 0.50000 0.50000 0.00 0.500
4 300 0.66667 0.33333 -0.63 0.264
5 200 0.83333 0.16667 -1.26 0.103
6
7
8
9
P(X≥Xi) Tr
0.103 9.713 N 5 CON UN Tr DADO; ENCONTRAR X.
0.264 3.794 PROMEDIO 400
0.500 2.000 D.ESTANDAR 158.113883 Tr 10
0.736 1.358 P(X≥Xi) 0.1
0.897 1.115 P(X≤Xi) 0.9
Zi 1.281551566
X 602.6310943

CON X DADO, ENCONTRAR Tr

X 602.63
Zi 1.2815
P(X≤Xi) 0.9000
P(X≥Xi) 0.1000
Tr 10.0
AJUSTE POR METODO DE MINIMOS CUADRADOS
DATOS Zi P(X≤Xi) %
241.886117 -1 0.158655254 15.86552539
400 0 0.5 50
558.113883 1 0.841344746 84.13447461

NOTAS.
ORDENAR DATOS Y HACER CALCULOS.
PARA VALORES MAXIMOS OORDENO DE MAYOR A MENOR
PARA VALORES MINIMOS O ORDENO DE MENOR A MAYOR
GRAFICAR C Vs D
 DATOS OBSERVADOS
Prob.
No. Orden x(mm) Teorica
(n/N+1) F(x<xi) P(z<zi) Zi

2
###
0 ### 1 1 992 0.043 0.957 0.9178 1.39
###
0 ### 1 2 944 0.087 0.913 0.8715 1.13
###
0 ### 1 3 904 0.130 0.870 0.8211 0.92
###
0 ### 1 4 895 0.174 0.826 0.8083 0.87
###
0 ### 1 5 887 0.217 0.783 0.7964 0.83
###
0 ### 1 6 875 0.261 0.739 0.7778 0.76
###
0 ### 1 7 865 0.304 0.696 0.7615 0.71
###
0 ### 1 8 825 0.348 0.652 0.6905 0.50
###
0 ### 1 9 815 0.391 0.609 0.6714 0.44
###
0 ### 1 10 780 0.435 0.565 0.6013 0.26
###
0 ### 1 11 765 0.478 0.522 0.5700 0.18
###
0 ### 1 12 764 0.522 0.478 0.5679 0.17
###
1 ### 1 13 742 0.565 0.435 0.5213 0.05
###
1 ### 1 14 731 0.609 0.391 0.4979 -0.01
###
1 ### 1 15 710 0.652 0.348 0.4532 -0.12
###
1 ### 1 16 691 0.696 0.304 0.4132 -0.22
###
1 ### 1 17 621 0.739 0.261 0.2764 -0.59

2
###
1 ### 1 18 619 0.783 0.217 0.2728 -0.60
###
1 ### 1 19 576 0.826 0.174 0.2021 -0.83
###
1 ### 1 20 450 0.870 0.130 0.0658 -1.51
-4.000 -3
###
1 ### 1 21 435 0.913 0.087 0.0561 -1.59
###
1 ### 1 22 218 0.957 0.043 0.0030 -2.75
###
1 ### 1
 AJUSTE
Axis Title

Tr F(X>Xi) Z X 1200
1

2
3
4
5
6
7

10
11
12

14

21
22

23
13

15
16

17

18

19
20
1 1.000 #VALUE! #VALUE!
1100
2 0.500 0.000 -187.01108
3 0.333 -0.431 -80.550776
1000
Xi 4 0.250 -0.674 -126.13705
900
Prom 732 5 0.200 -0.842 -157.39249
Desviación 187.011077 6 0.167 -0.967 -180.91855
800
7 0.143 -1.068 #VALUE!
8 0.125 -1.150 -947.12808
700
9 0.111 -1.221 -773.26219

Axis Title
600
Ajuste Momento 10 0.100 -1.282 -1158.6754
Xi 20 0.050 -1.645 -307.60585
500
0.5 732 30 0.033 -1.834 -342.96235
0.1587 545 50 0.020 -2.054 -384.0738
400
0.8413 919 60 0.017 -2.128 -397.96803
300
70 0.014 -2.189 -409.43266
80 0.013 -2.241 -419.16714
200
90 0.011 -2.287 -427.60979
10

11
12
13
14
15

16

17

18

19
20

21
22

23
1

2
3
4
5
6
7

100 0.010 -2.326 -435.05282

100
200 0.005 -2.576 -481.70861
0
300 0.003 -2.713 -507.37076
-4.000 -3.000 -2.000 -1.000 0.000 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000
400 0.003 -2.807 -524.94641
Axis Title 500 0.002 -2.878 -538.24813
 1200
23

1100

1000

900

800

700
Axis Title

600

500

400

300

200
23

100

0
4.000
ORDEN DATOS OBSERVADOS LOG DATOS OBSERVADOS FRECUENCIA Zi P(X≤Xi)
1 100 4.605170186 0.166666667 -0.97914481 0.163754217
2 200 5.2983173665 0.333333333 -0.05922933 0.476384725
3 400 5.9914645471 0.5 0.860686155 0.80529454
4 500 6.2146080984 0.666666667 1.156832793 0.87632966
5 100 4.605170186 0.833333333 -0.97914481 0.163754217
P(X≥Xi) Tr CON UN Tr DADO; ENCONTRAR X.
0.836245783 1.195820679 N 5
0.523615275 1.909799137 PROMEDIO 5.342946077 Tr 2
0.19470546 5.135962794 D.ESTANDAR 0.753490069 P(X≥Xi) 0.5
0.12367034 8.086013155 P(X≤Xi) 0.5
0.836245783 1.195820679 Zi 0
log X 5.342946077
X 209.1279105

CON X DADO, ENCONTRAR Tr

X 5.703782475
Zi 0.478886733
P(X≤Xi) 0.683990395
P(X≥Xi) 0.316009605
Tr 3.164460779
O; ENCONTRAR X. AJUSTE POR METODO DE MINIMOS CUADRADOS
DATOS Zi P(X≤Xi) %
4.589456008 -1 0.158655254 15.86552539
5.342946077 0 0.5 50
6.096436146 1 0.841344746 84.13447461

NOTA
CONTRAR Tr ORDENAR DATOS Y HACER CALCULOS.
PARA VALORES MAXIMOS OORDENO DE MAYOR A MENOR
PARA VALORES MINIMOS O ORDENO DE MENOR A MAYOR
GRAFICAR C Vs D
 DATOS OBSERVADOS
Prob. P(z<zi)
No. Orden x(mm) Teorica
(n/N+1) F(x>xi) Y = log(x) Log(xi)
###
0 ### 1 1 992 0.043 0.957 6.900 0.8477
###
0 ### 1 2 944 0.087 0.913 6.850 0.8107
###
0 ### 1 3 904 0.130 0.870 6.807 0.7743
###
0 ### 1 4 895 0.174 0.826 6.797 0.7653
###
0 ### 1 5 887 0.217 0.783 6.788 0.7571
###
0 ### 1 6 875 0.261 0.739 6.774 0.7444
###
0 ### 1 7 865 0.304 0.696 6.763 0.7334
###
0 ### 1 8 825 0.348 0.652 6.715 0.6857
###
0 ### 1 9 815 0.391 0.609 6.703 0.6728
###
0 ### 1 10 780 0.435 0.565 6.659 0.6249
###
0 ### 1 11 765 0.478 0.522 6.640 0.6030
###
0 ### 1 12 764 0.522 0.478 6.639 0.6015
###
1 ### 1 13 742 0.565 0.435 6.609 0.5680
###
1 ### 1 14 731 0.609 0.391 6.594 0.5506
###
1 ### 1 15 710 0.652 0.348 6.565 0.5165
###
1 ### 1 16 691 0.696 0.304 6.538 0.4847
###
1 ### 1 17 621 0.739 0.261 6.431 0.3620
###
1 ### 1 18 619 0.783 0.217 6.428 0.3585
###
1 ### 1 19 576 0.826 0.174 6.356 0.2828
###
1 ### 1 20 450 0.870 0.130 6.109 0.0965
###
1 ### 1 21 435 0.913 0.087 6.075 0.0805
###
1 ### 1 22 218 0.957 0.043 5.384 0.0003
###
1 ### 1
 AJUSTE Axis Title
10000

10
11
12
13
14
15
16

17
18

19
20

21
22

23
10

12
13

15
16

19
20

21
1

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

11

14

17
18

22
Tr F(X>Xi) Z X
Y
Prom 6.551
Desviación 0.339 1000

Ajuste Momentos
Log(Xi)
100
0.5 700.084087
0.1587 498.551144
0.8413 983.084154

10
11
12
13
14
15
16

17
18

19
20

21
22

23
1

2
3
4
5
6
7

8
9
10
-4.000 -3.000 -2.000 -1.000 0.000 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000

Axis Title
0
20 20
20

21 21
21
22 22
22

3.000
23 23

4.000
10
100
1000
10000

Axis Title
 DATOS OBSERVADOS
F(X>Xi)
Núm. Años Xi F(X<Xi) Log(x)
Ocurrencia
1 137 0.0625 0.9375 4.9200
2 127 0.1250 0.8750 4.8442
3 82 0.1875 0.8125 4.4067 �=𝑥  ̅−𝑌𝑛/𝑆𝑛(𝑆)
4 74 0.2500 0.7500 4.3041
5 64 0.3125 0.6875 4.1589 �=𝑆𝑛/𝑆
6 58 0.3750 0.6250 4.0604
7 58 0.4375 0.5625 4.0604
8 55 0.5000 0.5000 4.0073
9 51 0.5625 0.4375 3.9318
10 47 0.6250 0.3750 3.8501
11 41 0.6875 0.3125 3.7136
12 40 0.7500 0.2500 3.6889
13 38 0.8125 0.1875 3.6376
14 33 0.8750 0.1250 3.4965
15 30 0.9375 0.0625 3.4012

GUMBEL
160
140
120
100
Axis Title

80
60
40
20
0
0.0000 0.1000 0.2000 0.3000 0.4000 0.5000 0.6000 0.7000 0.8000 0.9000 1.0000
Axis Title

Log-GUMBEL
1000

100
Axis Title

10
 1000

100

Axis Title
10

1
0.0000 0.1000 0.2000 0.3000 0.4000 0.5000 0.6000 0.7000 0.8000 0.9000 1.0000
Axis Title
 GUMBEL

AJUSTE DE DATOS A UNA AJUSTE DE DATOS A UNA

DISTRIBUCIÓN GUMBEL - DADO Tr DISTRIBUCIÓN GUMBEL - DADO X

Tr F(x) X X F(X<Xi)
Gumbel (años) F(X>Xi)
X prom. 62.33 17.6 0.06 118.50 137 0.97
S 31.84 3.5 0.29 42.41 127 0.96
μ 48.01 4.5 0.22 37.87 82 0.78
α 0.04 5.5 0.18 34.77 74 0.70
n 15.00 6.5 0.15 32.44 64 0.59
7.5 0.13 30.62 58 0.51
8.5 0.12 29.12 58 0.51
Log Gumbel 9.5 0.11 27.86 55 0.47
X prom 4.03 10.5 0.10 26.78 51 0.41
S 0.45 11.5 0.09 25.84 47 0.35
μ 3.83 12.5 0.08 25.01 41 0.27
α 2.88 13.5 0.07 24.26 40 0.25
14.5 0.07 23.59 38 0.22
33 0.16
Ajuste Gráfico 30 0.13
Gumbel Log-Gumbel
αk 0.040286 0.31808
Ek 48.00538 2.21744

Gumbel
Moda 0.368 48.0054
Mediana 0.5 57.1030
Media 0.57 62.3333

Gumbel
Moda 0.368 2.2174
Mediana 0.5 3.3697
Media 0.57 4.0321
 LOG GUMBEL

DE DATOS A UNA AJUSTE DE DATOS A UNA DISTRIBUCIÓN GUMBEL - AJUSTE DE DATOS A UNA DISTRIB
ÓN GUMBEL - DADO X DADO Tr DADO X

Tr Tr F(x) Log(x) x
X
(años) F(X>Xi)
36.56 17.6 0.06 4.82 123.81 118.5
24.61 18.6 0.05 4.84 126.28 126.3
4.45 19.6 0.05 4.86 128.66 128.7
3.38 20.6 0.05 4.87 130.97 131.0
2.45 21.6 0.05 4.89 133.19 133.2
2.05 22.6 0.04 4.91 135.35 135.4
2.05 23.6 0.04 4.92 137.45 137.5
1.89 24.6 0.04 4.94 139.49 139.5
1.70 25.6 0.04 4.95 141.48 141.5
1.55 26.6 0.04 4.97 143.41 143.4
1.36 27.6 0.04 4.98 145.29 145.3
1.34 28.6 0.03 4.99 147.14 147.1
1.29 29.6 0.03 5.00 148.93 148.9
1.19
1.15
EL

AJUSTE DE DATOS A UNA DISTRIBUCIÓN GUMBEL -

DADO X

Log (X) F(X<Xi) Tr

4.8 0.94 15.59

4.8 0.95 18.62
4.9 0.95 19.62
4.9 0.95 20.62
4.9 0.95 21.62
4.9 0.96 22.62
4.9 0.96 23.62
4.9 0.96 24.62
5.0 0.96 25.62
5.0 0.96 26.62
5.0 0.96 27.62
5.0 0.97 28.62
5.0 0.97 29.62
No xi F(X>Xi) F(x<xi)
1 137 0.39646 0.60354 X Prom 62.3333333
2 127 0.79293 0.20707 Desviación 30.7563905
3 82 1.18939 -0.18939 n 15
4 74 1.58585 -0.58585 Cs 1.52229905
5 64 1.98232 -0.98232
6 58 2.37878 -1.37878
7 58 2.77525 -1.77525
8 55 3.17171 -2.17171
9 51 3.56817 -2.56817
10 47 3.96464 -2.96464
11 41 4.36110 -3.36110
12 40 4.75756 -3.75756
13 38 5.15403 -4.15403
14 33 5.55049 -4.55049
15 30 5.94696 -4.94696

Xt=𝑥  ̅+𝑆∗�_�

Xt=𝑥  ̅+𝑆∗�_�
 Dado Tr para calcular X Tabla
Tr F(X>Xi) Kt Xt X Kt F(X>xi)
34 0.02941 2.743 146.6981 -2.0266791 0.99
35 0.02857 3.743 177.4545
36 0.02778 4.743 208.2109
37 0.02703 5.743 238.9673
38 0.02632 6.743 269.7237
39 0.02564 7.743 300.4801
40 0.02500 8.743 331.2365
41 0.02439 9.743 361.9928
Tr
1.01010101
No xi Log(x) F(X>Xi) F(x<xi)
1 137 5 0.58464 0.41536 X Prom 4.03211803
2 127 5 1.16927 -0.16927 Desviación 0.43076499
3 82 4 1.75391 -0.75391 n 15
4 74 4 2.33855 -1.33855 Cs 0.71046271
5 64 4 2.92319 -1.92319
6 58 4 3.50782 -2.50782
7 58 4 4.09246 -3.09246
8 55 4 4.67710 -3.67710
9 51 4 5.26173 -4.26173
10 47 4 5.84637 -4.84637
11 41 4 6.43101 -5.43101
12 40 4 7.01565 -6.01565
13 38 4 7.60028 -6.60028
14 33 3 8.18492 -7.18492
15 30 3 8.76956 -7.76956

Xt=𝑥  ̅+𝑆∗�_�

Xt=𝑥  ̅+𝑆∗�_�
 Dado Tr para calcular X Dado X para calcular Tr
Tr F(X>Xi) Kt Xt X Kt
34 0.02941 2.743 5.2137 -9.3603662
35 0.02857 3.743 5.6445
36 0.02778 4.743 6.0752
37 0.02703 5.743 6.5060
38 0.02632 6.743 6.9368
39 0.02564 7.743 7.3675
40 0.02500 8.743 7.7983
41 0.02439 9.743 8.2291
Dado X para calcular Tr
F(X>xi) Tr
0.99 1.01010101