Impact of Recent Economic Changes on The External Trade in India:

A Time Series Analysis

Dr. Deepa Rawat*

Dr. Deepti**

The Indian economy is now fully integrated with the global economy,
thanks to economic reforms initiated in 1990s and continued till today. Any
cyclical or otherwise shock directly or indirectly affects the Indian economy.
The magnitude of the effect depends upon the degree of integration with the
affected country or the region. Indian economy sailed safely during the
economic crisis in south east Asian countries during 1997-98 and economic
crisis of 2001-02 because the degree of integration with affected counties was
low. However , the brunt of Sub-prime crisis of US(2008) and Eurozone debt
crises(2009-2017) is being felt on Indian economy since 2011-12 when annual
growth rate of GNI at constant prices(2011-12=100) declined to 6.9 per cent
from 9.8 per cent in 2010-11. Growth further decelerated to 5.1 per cent in
2012-13. During the subsequent years GNI growth improved at constant prices
but showed a continuous declining trend since 2011-12 at current prices. Impact
of global recession is deeply felt on external trade. India’s exports grew by 40.5
per cent in dollar terms during 2010-11 and 21.8 per cent during the following
year. Growth rate of exports during 2012-13 was (-)1.8 per cent which
improved slightly in 2013-14(4.7 per cent) but again dipped to (-) 1.3 per cent in
2014-15. Heavy shock was felt during 2015-16 when growth of exports
decreased to (-)15.5 per cent. Almost similar trend was noticed in the imports.
The only consoling factor was the continuous rise in the foreign exchange
reserves which increased from US$251.985 billion in 2008-09 to US$369.955
billion in 2016-17. However, the reason of rise in the foreign exchange reserves
was the increasing inflow of FDI during these years. Low rate of return in
developed countries and further liberalization of FDI policy in India motivated
foreign investors to play safe in India. Another consoling factor for India during
these years was the decline in current account deficit since 2012-13. The current
account deficit came down to US$15.296 billion in 2016-17 from US$88.163
billion in 2012-13. It was the result of continuous decrease in trade balance
which came down from (-) US $195.656 billion in 2012-13 to (-) US$112.442
billion in 2016-17. (GoI,2017: Economic Survey 2016-17, Ministry of Finance).
The mixed bag of developments in external sector has an adverse effect on the
growth pattern of Indian economy.
In the light of above developments and under the shadow of global
economic crises the present paper “Impact of Recent Economic Changes on The

*
Associate Professor & HOD, Department of Economics, Agra College, Agra.
**
Assistant Professor, Department of Humanities, FET, Agra College, Agra.

1
External Trade of India: A Time Series Analysis”, studies the growth, trend and
prospects of India’s external trade, as well as the impact of recent economic
changes. The present paper is divided in four sections viz; section I -
Introduction, section II- Trends in external trade, section III- Recent factors
affecting external trade of India, section IV – Conclusion & suggestions.
Research Methodology
The research paper is based on secondary data collected from various
sources like various issues of Economic survey, New Delhi, Ministry of Trade
and Commerce, Government of India, Government of India, RBI Bulletin,
Annual Reports of Department of Industry and Promotion etc. To examine the
pattern of external trade and study the effect of recent global and national
economic changes taking place, we have used econometric tools i.e. time series
analysis (semi log model), multiple regression model and linear trend diagrams.

Section -I
Introduction
External trade has come a long way in Indian economy in value terms
from the time of gaining independence in 1947. During the period 1950-1990,
external trade of India suffered from strict bureaucratic and discretionary
controls. The total value of merchandise exports increased from US $ 1269
million in 1950-51 to US$ 18143 million in 1990-91 and further to US$ 83536
million in 2004-05 to US $ 178751 million in 2009-10. India’s trade growth has
been around 20 per cent since 2002-03 till 2014 (DICIS, Kolkata). After 1991
India adopted import substitution and export promotion strategy to increase its
foreign exchange earnings. It was during the eighties that the government
started opening up the economy. However, a mounting deficit, coupled with
high inflation (at 13.5 per cent) and the Gulf war led India to a balance of
payment crisis in 1991. During the last two and a half decades India has
transformed from a closed economy to a considerable player in the global
market.
Since 1991, India has followed an export promotion strategy which
geared up export from 13970 US $ million in 1988-89 to 22238 US $ million in
1993-94. Many export promotion policies were started after the reforms
nevertheless, India’s export performance has fluctuated according to global
changes. The East Asian Crisis of 1997 had a serious impact on India’s exports,
which became (-)2.33 per cent in 1997. The situation for India worsened when
its competitor ASEAN countries devalued their currencies amidst the crisis. In
2001-02, India faced another setback, due to the slowdown of the US economy.
Again in 2008 the collapse of large investment banks around the world coupled
2
with high oil prices and rising inflation led to a global recession which severely
affected India’s exports. During the international crises in 2008-09, India’s
external trade was severely affected although the resilience shown by our
economy was better than most economies of the world. India’s GDP growth rate
fell from 9 per cent in 2007-08 to 7.1 per cent in 2008-09. The impact of this
crisis on the export sector was that export growth which was approximately
24.55 per cent between 2002-03 and 2007-08 come down to (-) 3.5 per cent in
2009-10(Economic Survey,2017).
In the post liberalization period import growth has also increased along
with increase in exports. The import to GDP ratio has increased from an average
of 7.7 per cent for the 1980s to 10 per cent in the 1990s. During the period of
1991-2001 the average growth rate of India’s imports was around 17.1 per cent
in dollar terms as a per cent of GDP (Economic Survey, 2009-10). The
country’s GDP to external trade ratio hardly changed between 1980 and 1990; it
remained almost fixed at a little over 14 per cent. While both exports and
imports have grown faster than GDP, thereby pushing the trade-GDP ratio to
25.6 per cent in the year 2003-04.
Over the last 25 years since liberalization, India’s external trade has
expanded multifold and seen significant structural shifts in product as well as
geographic composition. The easing of quantitative restrictions as well as
significant reduction in tariff levels across product lines has helped the growth
of external trade. However, over the last few years there has been a marked
deceleration in India’s external trade, both exports as well as imports, primarily
on account of subdued global demand and dip in global commodity prices
following the slowing of the world economy. Also very recently the
government’s move of demonetization and the introduction of GST have further
hampered the growth of external trade although this may be a temporary setback
only.
Section -II
Trend of External trade

Globalization has led to the easy spread of economic crisis across the
globe. The origins are different but the aftermaths are felt in all parts of the
world. Since the economic reforms Indian economy has grown at the rate of 8 to
9 per cent, as such, all macroeconomic indicators such as savings and
investments, export and import, foreign exchange reserve, and level of
employment have increased, although, the global economic crisis’s have given
setbacks to India’s external sector but as such there is no intensive atmosphere
of recession in the domestic economic environment. The economic recession
that developed around 2006-07 in United States of America has had a deep
impact on all economies of the world both developed and developing.

3
 During the last 25 years, India’s exports have increased more than 17
times, from US$ 18143 million in 1990- 91 to US$ 310338 million in 2014-15,
and India’s imports have increased 19 times, from US$ 24075 million in 1990-
91 to US$ 448033 million in 2014-15(Table 1). India’s share in global exports
has moved up from mere 0.6 per cent in early nineties to 1.7 per cent currently.
Likewise, India’s share in global imports has increased from around 0.6 per cent
during early nineties to 2.4 per cent currently. In the first decade of this period
(1990-91 to 1999-00), India’s exports grew at 8.1 per cent and imports at 8.7
per cent. The real increase in growth was witnessed in the next decade (2000-01
to 2009-10), when exports grew from US$ 44076 million in 2000-01to US$
178751 million in 2009-10 and imports grew from US$ 49975 million to US$
288373 in the same period. This trend continued until 2011-12, after which
there has been a steady decline in trade owing to global slowdown. In 2014-15,
exports increased gradually to US$ 310338 million, India’s exports are less
diversified, with top 20 countries accounting for more than 80 per cent of
India’s total exports. During 1991-92, USA was the largest export destination
(16.4 per cent), followed by Japan (9.2 per cent), Russia (9.2 per cent) and some
European countries. Today, top 20 export destinations for India account for 67
per cent of total exports, reflecting greater diversification. A major change in
the direction of India’s exports during the last two decades has been the
increasing share of developing countries and decreasing share of developed
economies. Between 1990-91 and 2014-15, the share of Asia has increased from
34 per cent to 49 per cent and that of Africa from 3 per cent to 11 per cent. On
the other hand, share of Europe has come down from 41 per cent to 19 per cent
during this period (Pushpalata Singh,2014). The composition of exports has also
changed with time. There is a definite shift in India’s exports, from primary,
agricultural and traditional exports to manufactured and technology based items.
As regards the imports, India’s imports have also continuously increased
since the reforms in 1990-91. Imports were US$ 24075 million in 1990-91 and
increased to US$ 111517 million in 2004-05. In 2008-09 the imports again
increased at a high speed reaching US$ 303694 million however there was a
decline in 2009-10 due to global meltdown and it dipped to US$ 288373
million. It regained in 2010-11 and stood at US$ 369769 million. Again, there
has been a slight dip US$ 448033 million in 2014 -15 as against US$ 450200
million in 2013-14.
As regards the composition of our import basket, petroleum has always
remained the most important item of import in India’s trade in the pre as well as
post reform period. It had a share of 27 per cent in total imports in 1991-92,
which currently stands at around 31 per cent (2014-15). Gold is the second most
important import item after crude oil (Economic Survey, 2016).

4
 Table 1: Trends in India’s Exports and Imports
US$ Million
Year Exports Imports Trade GDP
Balance
1999-00 36822 49671 -12849 462147

2000-01 44076 49975 -5899 478965

2001-02 43827 51413 -7587 508069

2002-03 52719 61412 -8693 599593

2003-04 63843 78149 -14307 699689

2004-05 83536 111517 -27981 808901

2005-06 103091 149166 -46075 920317

2006-07 126414 185735 -59321 1201000

2007-08 163132 251654 -88522 1187000

2008-09 185295 303696 -118401 1324000

2009-10 178751 288373 -109621 1657000

2010-11 251136 369769 -118633 1823000

2011-12 305964 489319 -183355 1828000

2012-13 300401 490737 -190336 1857000

2013-14 314405 450200 -135795 2035000

2014-15 310338 448033 -137695 2112000

2015-16 (p) 262290 381007 -118717 2264000

Source: DGCIS, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India, www.dgciskol.nic.in.

5
 600000
Tr e n d s o f I n d i a ' s E x p o r t s a n d I m p o r t s

US$ MILLION
381007
400000 288373
200000 178751 262290
0

YEAR
Exports Imports

Table 1 gives the data of external trade. The trends of exports and imports
are being presented as continuous growth model (semi log model i.e. log-lin
model) (Gujarati, 2008) in the following manner. As per time series data on
India’s exports and imports during 1999-00 to 2015-16 (Table 1), the value in
the model can be put as

Exportst  y0 1  r 
t

log Exportst   β1  β2t

log(Exportst )  10.42859  0.149377t
R  0.969 R 2  0.939 R 2  0.935 r  41.05
For Imports
Importst  y0 1  r 
t

log Importst   β1  β2t

log(Import s)  10.62050  0.166193t
R  0.955 R 2  0.912 R 2  0.906 r  46.61

Thus, the value of r (growth rate) for exports is equal to 41.05 per cent
and for imports 46.61 per cent. We found that there is no serially correlation, no
heteroscedastic, residual is normally distributed and no auto correlation in
residual. Thus all result shows that this model is fitted. The above results
confirm theoretic expectations. Since the value of R2 and R 2 are almost the
same, the model is fitted.
The impact of economic reforms is visible from the changing structure of
India’s External Trade in terms of trend and diversity of market and products.
Figure 1 presents the trend of merchandise exports and imports since 1991to
2016. During the 1990s, Indian exports performed well in certain years, and not
so well in some other years. However, the global economic slowdown and the
events of September 11, 2001 led to a steep fall in the rate of growth of exports
and since then it has increased steadily but the rate of increase has been
different according to the global scenario. For 2017, global trade is expected to
grow at 3.6 per cent with such low growth prospects, recovery in India’s exports

6
becomes extremely challenging. India should strive for greater competitiveness,
policy reforms and transparency.
Section-III
Impact of Recent Economic Changes
The global economy is struggling to revive and grow at a healthy rate
after the onslaught of global financial crisis. During the last one year a number
of economic and political happenings have disturbed the globe. Economic crisis
in Euro Area, Brexit and uprisings in the Middle -east have all had an effect on
sensitive commodity prices and general uncertainty has affected business
environment world over and recovery pace in both developed and emerging
markets. The crisis has produced a wide-ranging yet differentiated impact which
includes economic slowdown and contraction in world trade. India is expected
to grow at 7.6 per cent in FY2018, rising to 7.8 per cent in FY 2019-20 (GOI,
Ministry of Commerce, 2015-20). Various ongoing reforms are expected to
reduce domestic supply hindrances and increase productivity. The “Make in
India” initiative can support India’s manufacturing sector, backed by boosting
domestic demand and further regulatory reforms. A benefit of ‘demonetization’
in the long run may ease liquidity in the banking system, leading to lower
lending rates and boost economic activity (World Bank, Global Economic
Prospects, January 2017). According to IMF, India’s GDP will continue to
expand at the fastest pace among major economies, with growth forecast at 7.6
per cent in 2016-17 (Open World Bank Data).
India’s competitiveness has improved in all spheres in goods market
efficiency, business sophistication, and innovation.
According to latest WTO estimates, world trade will further slowdown
than expected in 2016, expanding by just 1.7 per cent. The forecast for 2017 has
also been revised, with trade now expected to grow between 1.8 per cent and
3.1 per cent, down from 3.6 per cent previously. Provisional data for global
GDP growth is 2.2 per cent in 2016, this is the slowest pace of trade and output
growth since the financial crisis of 2009.
Another important global event of 2016 was the Brexit however it is
expected that the impact of the exit of United Kingdom (UK) from European
Union (EU) on world to be minimal, on India and the country is well prepared
to deal with such events. The intensity of the impact world depend on the
measures required to tackle likely uncertainty in trade; impact on preferential
access to EU markets; the need for recalibration of the Broad-based Bilateral
Trade and Investment Agreement and change in import-export tariff barriers,
the process of separation of UK from EU is completed.
In general terms, Exports has a positive impact on the growth of GDP in
India. Table 1 reveals that Exports increased during 1999-00 to 2015-16 despite

7
some serious fluctuations. An econometric model is being put forward to
quantitatively prove the relationship between GDP growth and Exports and
Imports.

log(GDP)  β1  β2log(Exports)  β3(Imports)

log(GDP)  5.405  0.833078 log(Exports)  0.106157 log(Imports)
R  0.987 R 2  0.974 R 2  0.971

The log linear OLS model shows that GDP will certainly grow with the
growth in Exports. Since the value of R2 and 2 R are almost the same, the model
is fitted. Table 2.1 shows estimates of growth for different economies around
the world compared with growth rates in India. According to data in 2000
global GDP 4.39 per cent and India’s GDP was 3.84 per cent in 2001. There
was sudden decrease Global GDP 1.94 per cent on the other hand the Indian
economy could absorbed the global slowdown and its GDP increase 4.82 per
cent. After global recession in 2007-08 global GDP decrease to 1.82 per cent in
2008. Whereas India’s GDP dipped from 9.8 per cent in 2007 to 3.82 per cent in
2008. Further the world economy was worst hit 2009 when the global GDP
become negative (-1.73 per cent), very surprisingly and positive fact was that
India was able to maintain 8.5 per cent growth rate of GDP due to strong
macroeconomic mechanism and the ability to absolve external shocks. Since
than the world economy GDP have remain between 2.4 to 3.5 per cent whereas
the growth of GDP rate in India has remain between 6.8 per cent in 2016.
India’s GDP was 7.1 per cent this was in sharp contrast to general prediction
that demonetization with have strong negative effect in overall GDP Growth in
India.
Table 2: Trends of Growth Rates of Global GDP and Trade
and India's GDP and Trade (%)

Global Scenario Indian Economy

Year Global Global Global India India India
GDP Export Import GDP Export Import

2000 4.399 11.916 12.514 3.841 18.154 4.590

2001 1.941 0.452 0.359 4.824 4.31 2.944
2002 2.144 2.799 2.765 3.804 21.085 11.997
2003 2.915 4.339 5.260 7.86 9.582 13.884
2004 4.453 10.156 10.708 7.923 27.176 22.195
2005 3.846 6.804 8.131 9.285 26.074 32.588
2006 4.326 8.566 9.097 9.264 20.355 21.480

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 Global Scenario Indian Economy
Year Global Global Global India India India
GDP Export Import GDP Export Import

2007 4.256 6.577 7.650 9.801 5.926 10.193

2008 1.819 2.697 3.097 3.891 14.597 22.714
2009 -1.735 10.159 -11.886 8.48 -4.685 -2.136
2010 4.327 11.594 12.325 10.26 19.616 15.609
2011 3.156 6.588 6.885 6.638 15.575 21.059
2012 2.493 2.896 2.556 5.456 6.805 6.022
2013 2.601 2.988 2.534 6.386 7.792 -8.146
2014 2.831 3.614 3.261 7.505 1.779 0.874
2015 2.734 3.386 2.473 8.01 -5.314 -5.882
2016 2.438 2.693 2.493 7.107 4.512 2.307
Source: https://data.worldbank.org

Global GDP Vs India's GDP

12
10 8.48
8
Per centage

6 3.891
4
2
0
-21998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
-1.735
-4
Year

GLOBAL GDP INDIA GDP

Likewise, when we compare the data of global export and import and
Indian export and import. We find that Indian export registered negative growth
in 2009 (-4.68 per cent) following global meltdown however the export very
quickly bouncing back to 19.62 per cent in 2010. Again there was a setback
demand in Indian exports were (-5.31 per cent) in 2015. Looking at the
resilience of the Indian economy with strong banking setup, macroeconomic
ability, limited exposure to global financial market the prospects of India’s
external trade seem bright and it would be able to bear the global crisis future
also.
Demonetization

9
 Besides the global events affecting India’s external trade, there recent
economic changes within the country which are likely to affect trade in the long
run. One such event was demonetization.
Demonetization was announced on 8 November 2016 by the Prime
Minister Sh. N. Modi. The advantages and disadvantages of the measure
continue to be debated. Since Rs500 and Rs1000 notes made up some 86% of
the total currency in circulation in India, the move was very bold sudden and
infect a big blow to the entire population.
However, PM Modi took “a bold, even visionary, step” with
demonetization in attempting to combat black economy, counterfeit currency,
and cutting financial support to terrorism and move to worlds les cash economy.
Nevertheless the economists predict that its impact on economic activity and
GDP would be temporary and the long term benefits like increase in less cash
activities would be more permanent in nature.
Definitely there is a short-term setback. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)
has reduced the GDP growth rate forecast for 2016-17 from 7.6% to 7.1% and,
the Asian Development Bank from 7.4% to 7%, however it is expected that
growth would recover in 2017-2018.
Demonetization technically is a liquidity shock; a sudden stop in terms of
currency availability. It creates a situation where lack of currencies jams
consumption, investment, production, employment etc. In this context, the
exercise has produced many short term/long term/, impact on Indian economy,
like liquidity crunch, slowdown of all economic activities, decrease in
consumption.
It is surprising that on the of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC),
developed economies used monetary policy to stimulate growth, such as
negative interest rate policies and “helicopter drops” of money. However, India
has given a whole new dimension to unconventional monetary policy, with the
difference that whereas advanced economies have focused on expanding the
money supply, India’s demonetization has reduced it (Economic Survey,2017).
GST

Yet another important economic reform adopted in 2017 has been the
introduction of GST on 1 July 17. A very brief study of the impact of GST on
external trade is being attempted as well there is a lot of ambiguity as regards
the implementation of GST. Nevertheless, it can be said that in the long run the
impact of this major tax reform on external trade would be positive. The current
Indirect tax regime in India is complex as there are multiple taxes, elaborate
compliance obligations and tax cascading.

10
 GST is a destination based tax on consumption of goods or services. It is
also the policy of the Government of India to export the goods and/or services
not the taxes out of India. Thus, exports will become cheaper making Indian
products or services more competitive in the international markets (Alok
Patania,2017).
The Taxation Laws (Amendment) Act, 2017 provides that IGST on
imports will be levied at value of imported article as determined under the
Customs Act plus duty of customs and any other sum chargeable in addition to
customs duty (excluding GST and GST Cess).
As per the provisions of IGST law, export of goods and/or services are to be
treated as “zero rated supplies” and a registered taxable person exporting goods
or services shall be eligible to claim refund under one of the following two
options:
 Export under bond or letter of undertaking without payment of Integrated
Tax and claim refund of unutilized input tax credit.
 Export on payment of Integrated Tax and claim refund of the tax so paid
on goods and services exported. The aforesaid refunds will be subject to
rules, safeguards and procedures as may be prescribed.
Section-IV
Conclusion
Analysis of the various international and national economic happenings
in recent years reveals that India has fared much better than most of the
developed and developing economies due to its ability to absorbed external
shocks. Nevertheless, the global economic scenario and trade indicators remain
uncertain and point towards weak and asymmetric growth prospects across
regions. The threats are manifold covering political, economic and social
dimensions.
India must take suitable measures to be stable in the global unstable
environment and improve the regulatory framework, ease of doing business
given the global economic scenario and all available trade indicators, it can be
said that growth prospect remains weak and asymmetric across regions.
Projection on Indian economy by IMF, World Bank and United Nations
provides positive output
and trade growth. There are several threats and challenges like conflicts around
the world and increasing protectionist attitude of advanced economies like U.S.
and U.K. However, India can take suitable measures as outlined in the FTP
2015- 20 along with improving the regulatory environment and ease of doing
business by increasing digitization of the trade process, infrastructure
development, working on building the Brand and value promotion.

11
 In order to increase the external trade and increase its share in global
trade, the present foreign trade policy (2015-2020) of Government of India
focusses on market and product strategy and strengthening of the compete trade
eco system. Through the policy the government has tried to mainstream States,
Union Territories and various departments of Government of India in the
process of international trade two new schemes, have been introduced namely
“Merchandise Exports from India Scheme (MEIS)” for export of specified
goods to specified markets and “Service Exports from India Scheme (SEIS)” for
increasing exports of notified services. Some of the new initiatives adopted in
FTP (2015-20) are
E-Commerce Exports
Goods falling in the category of handloom products, books/ periodicals, leather
footwear, toys and customized fashion garments, having FOB value up to Rs.
25,000 per consignment (finalized using e-Commerce platform) are eligible for
benefits.
Status Holders Recognition:
All exporters of goods, services and technology having an importer-exporter
code (IEC) number shall be eligible for recognition as a Status Holder. Status
recognition depends upon export performance.
o Export Oriented Units
o Electronics Hardware Technology Parks
o Software Technology Parks
o Bio-Technology Parks:
Deemed Exports
“Deemed Exports” refer to those transactions in which goods supplied do not
leave country, and payment for such supplies is received either in Indian Rupees
or in free foreign exchange. Deemed Export Scheme is for encouraging import
substitution.
Trade Facilitation
Trade facilitation is a priority of the Government for cutting down
transition cost and time and thereby rendering Indian exports more competitive.
e-Trade
e-Trade is an initiative that sets the stage for creating an electronic single
window for trade and facilitates users to carry out all their foreign trade related,
regulatory and other compliances online.
Ease of Doing Business
The present policy has reduced number of mandatory documents required
for exports and imports to 3 each for export and import.
To conclude it can be said that India cannot avoid the present global crisis
since the economy is becoming more and more integrated with the world
economy. Thus in order to overcome the global economic crisis and to have a
robust external trade growth rate, monetary and fiscal produce is essential More

12
transparency is required the RBI must lower the policy rates further to bring
down the costs of funds and boost the growth momentum.
Black money should be brought back and corruption should be
controlled. Ethical and moral standards should be enhanced. To speed up the
pace of economic development and to attract foreign direct investment in Indian
economy, there is an urgent need to ensure the protection of investors, their
lives and money through maintaining normalcy and maintain law and order. The
protection of rural economy is essential for India. Entrepreneurship
development in both rural and urban areas should be encouraged and
infrastructure be developed.
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