Professional Documents
Culture Documents
11 Aug 2007
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
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AGENDA
Value Investing
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OUR ETHOS
• Prayer
God’s Grace, Elder’s Blessings
• Aim
To win all wars despite losing many a battle
• Motto
Where the head is held high, and the mind is without fear . . .
• Baseline
Insight, Intellect, Integrity
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EVOLUTION
• Aspiration (2005 - . . . .)
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EARLY DAYS (1984 -1989)
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PARADIGM SHIFT (1990 -1994)
• Prudent betting
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LEARNING CURVE (1995 -2000)
• Rudder-less period
• Introspection
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DEFINING TIME (2001 – 2005)
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ASPIRATION: 2005 AND BEYOND
• Institutionalization
• Perpetual view
• Other asset classes
• Other geographies
• Investor of choice
• Philanthropy
• De-leveraging
• Strategic thinker
• People, skill focused
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RAKESH AS AN INDIVIDUAL
• Independent thinker
• Passion for equities. Measured risk taker
• A trader, an investor, a venture capitalist
• Not afraid to make mistakes, but affordable ones
• No religion, no emotion, no ego, no rules. But, means remain more important than the ends
• Accept with an open heart and mind that the only constant is change. The urge to learn is a
journey, not a destination
• Magic of emotion-less leverage, with discipline
• Patience born out of conviction. Be greedy, but be long-term greedy – understanding the role
of time
• His word is his bond, highest integrity
• Loves his independence
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RARE ENTERPRISES TODAY
RARE
Enterprises
Private Equity +
Trading Public Investments
Value Addition
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AGENDA
Value Investing
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OUR INVESTMENT APPROACH
What We Look For
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INVESTMENT BELIEF
Realism - Safety of
1 a Conviction
3 Capital - a
Religion
Absolute
Rigidity -
2 a
Taboo 4
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Returns - a
Passion
Value Investing
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INDIA ON A STRONG GROWTH TRAJECTORY
“A moment comes, which comes but rarely in history, when we
step out from the old to the new, when an age ends and when
the soul of a nation, long suppressed, finds utterance.”
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GROWTH ENABLERS
CULTURAL POLITICAL
Democratic
Tolerance
Secular
Educational base
Populous
Skilled People
Welfare
Savings Oriented
GROWTH Consensus
ENABLERS Judicial System
DEMOGRAPHICS GEO-POLITICAL
Young working population ECONOMICS Sub-continent
54% of population Entrepreneurial class Vast natural resources
<25 years old well developed Nuclear power
Vast domestic market
Top 4 Middle class in the Resilience Amongst largest economies
world (no boom-bust cycles) Irrelevance of Geographies
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INDIA ON A STRONG GROWTH TRAJECTORY
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GROWTH SOLIDIFIERS AND ACCELERATORS
6. Examples
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INDIA ON A STRONG GROWTH TRAJECTORY
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INDIA HAS ALL INGREDIENTS THAT MARKETS VALUE
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THE INVESTOR PERSPECTIVE: LONG TERM
USA
INDIA
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Source: Bloomberg Insight I Intellect I Integrity
WHAT COULD GO WRONG
• Slowdown in US economic growth
• Politicians mess up
However, decreasing influence in causing damage
India’s growth and it’s equity returns can be delayed, not denied.
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US: CHEAP CREDIT FUELS ECONOMIC GROWTH
Enable loans to
Quest for higher
customers with
returns: use of
poor credit rating
financial engg from
– 15% of all loans
regular mortgages Consumptio
in 2006 , $ 1.2
CDOs, CLOs n boom
Trillion
Low interest
rates after dot Demand Rising GDP
com for home growth
Collapse…fro housing prices
m 4.5 to 1% in
8Q
Investment
Poor housing
Boom
credit
Cheap shielded by
credit innovative
structures, rising
home prices
Low interest rates led to US Economy Debt surging to 340% of GDP from 280%
of GDP in 2000 and 175% in 1980 … thereby fueling an extra ordinary
consumption and investment boom
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Source: UBS
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US: VICIOUS CYCLE OF GDP GROWTH
Consumption
Declines
Jobs lost significantly
Unsold
Rise in Increase in inventories Housing GDP
credit EMIs @ 15 yr high, Prices slows
standards As interest 1.7 M homes decline down
to sub rates
prime due reset
to defaults upward Investment in
housing
declines
Default by
sub prime
Inability to
refinance
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CONCLUSIONS: WE ARE IN A TOUGH PERIOD FOR EQUITIES
High degree of complacency as too much easy money has been made too quickly
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WORLD ECONOMY IMPLICATIONS
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SENSEX POSSIBILITIES
EARNINGS
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AS YOU EMBARK ON PROMISING LIVES
• Whatever you can do or dream you can, begin it. Boldness has genius, power and
magic in it.
• When you see a horizon, it seems so distant. When you reach that horizon, you will
realize how many more horizons are within reach
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Thank You
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INDIA UTILIZES CAPITAL MORE EFFICIENTLY
China India
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GROWTH DESPITE CYNICISM
“India is the cradle of the human race, “Despite this; the skepticism of most
the birthplace of human speech, the Indians, who have inherited from the
mother of history, the grandmother of British a talent for cultivated cynicism, is
legend, and the great grandmother of most surprising”
tradition. Our most valuable and most
instructive materials in the history of Chris Wood, CLSA
man are treasured up in India”.
Mark Twain
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INDIA's PEOPLE - ITS STRONGEST ASSET
Based on IMD World Competitiveness Survey
A large pool of skilled people... ...with high end qualifications... ...and extremely cost efficient
Availability of skilled labour, 2003 Availability of qualified engineers, Total compensation for
2003 manufacturing workers, 2002
“23% of the Global workforce addition over the next five years
will be from India”
- Economist
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FAVOURABLE DEMOGRAPHICS WILL AID
CONSUMPTION LED GROWTH
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CONSUMPTION: EXPANDING MIDDLE CLASS
India To Have 4th Largest Number Of House Holds Earning > US $5000
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Source: EIU Country Data Insight I Intellect I Integrity
INDIA: ECONOMIC RESILIENCE
Least Volatile Economic Growth
% GDP growth
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
India Taiwan S Korea Thailand Singapore Hongkong Malaysia
Non democratic societies can have a period of fast growth, but can never achieve long
periods of stable , sustainable growth
• Never have the opportunity to build the right cultures, enrich civil society,
develop quality education, or promote the rule of law and globally competitive
business
Democracy makes for populism, pandering and delays. But it also makes for long-
term stability
• Fareed Zakaria, Newsweek
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INDIA’s GROWTH – A BIOLOGICAL EVOLUTION
Change has come about by a due process of churn of opinions and counter-
opinions.
• Change has not been thrust down India’s throat.
• A Free Press has enabled and encouraged public debate.
“India will never be a tiger; it is an elephant that has begun to lumber. But
what the elephant loses in speed, it makes up in stamina”
• Gurcharan Das, author of India Unbound
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GLOBAL OPINION LEADERS RECOGNIZE THE CHANGE
• What is happening today is the birth of India as an independent society … colorful, open,
vibrant and, above all, ready for change. India is diverging from its past, but also from most
other countries in Asia. It is not a quiet, controlled, quasi-authoritarian country that is slowly
opening up according to plans. It is a noisy democracy that has finally empowered its people
economically. India’s growth is messy, chaotic and largely unplanned. It is not top-down but
bottom-up. It is happening not because of the government, but largely despite it.
• Fareed Zakaria, Newsweek
• An economic litmus test is not whether a country can attract a lot of FDI but whether it
has a business environment that nurtures entrepreneurship, supports healthy
competition and is relatively free of heavy-handed political intervention. In this regard,
India has done a better job than China
• Yasheng Huang, MIT
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CONFIDENCE: INDIA INC. GOING GLOBAL
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 E
Confluence
Insurance Competition Bill
of Reforms
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IN GOOD MACROECONOMIC SHAPE
The sustained improvement in RoE and the growth in profits has come despite
significantly lower tariff protection, lower inflation and deferred tax accounting.
Indian skills and Indian enterprise have now got a global level playing field, and a much
superior platform than India Inc. has ever had before.
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PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENTS: ASSET TURNS
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PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENTS: MARGIN EXPANSION
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STRONG BALANCE SHEETS
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POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE EQUITY OWNERSHIP
Distribution of Financial Savings
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
FY 91 FY 96 FY 01 FY05 FY 06 FY 11
Cash Deposits Life Insurance
Govt schemes Equity & debentures
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SAVINGS EXPLOSION AHEAD
Re/$ 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44
Equity $ bn 5 8 12 18 24 33 44 57
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EXAMPLES OF TRANSFORMATION
2. Airlines industry
3. Mobile phones
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FUND FLOW FOR EQUITY MARKETS
Savings Composition
USD Bn 1994 1995 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GDP 274 323 601 694 798 904 1,026 1,163 1,319 1,496
Gross domestic savings 62 80 174 202 235 271 315 365 425 494
Savings to GDP % 22.5% 24.8% 28.9% 29.1% 29.5% 30.0% 30.7% 31.4% 32.2% 33.0%
Financial savings 35 46 83 97 133 156 184 216 253 299
- % of GDP 12.8% 14.4% 13.8% 14.0% 16.7% 17.3% 17.9% 18.6% 19.2% 20.0%
Savings in Equity/Deb/MF 4.7 5.5 0.1 1.1 6.5 5.9 11.8 21.2 34.0 44.9
- % of Financial Savings 13.5% 11.9% 0.1% 1.1% 4.9% 3.8% 6.4% 9.8% 13.4% 15.0%
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