The Battle Of The Jumbos

A350X vs B777X

Boeing And Airbus: The Battle Of The Jumbos, With An Unexpected

Winner?
Published on Published onFebruary 13, 2018

Ahmad Yani S Noor

Senior Ground Operations Manager

Both Airbus and Boeing came up with their mini-jumbos to battle each other
in the lower segment of the (ultra-) long range market. Airbus came up with
the Airbus A350-1000, while Boeing came up with the Boeing 777X.

This article deals with the long range aircraft that carry 350 passengers (in
a 3-class configuration) . In order to make a good comparison, it is important

Page 1 of 7
 The Battle Of The Jumbos

to see how the various airplanes are positioned in the range vs. payload
diagram:

With the coming launch of the 777-9 at the Dubai Air Show On November
2017, the battle between the A350-1000 and 777-9 will be officially on, with
two very different aircraft competing for the same market. While there is
discussion of another stretch to the A350 program to provide comparable
capacity to the larger 777-9, we can compare today’s aircraft and examine
their relative economics based on manufacturer projections and Piano
models based on preliminary specifications.

The A350-1000

The A350-1000 is the largest of 3 models in the A350 family, with 350 seats
in a typical three class configuration, with an 8,400 nautical mile range. The
A350 features carbon fiber composite structure and wings, and at 53%
composites will have slightly more of the aircraft made of this material than
the Boeing 787-9, which is 50% composites. It features new technology

Page 2 of 7
 The Battle Of The Jumbos

Trent XWB engines from Rolls Royce with state-of-the art fuel efficiency,
advanced aerodynamics, and state of the art systems.

The 777-9X

The 777-9 is a stretched version of the current 777-300ER with a new engine
and new wing, along with other enhancements, to create an updated version
of the 777, which delivered its 1,000th example earlier this year. The 777-
9X will feature an aluminum alloy fuselage with a carbon fiber composite
wing, and new technology GE9X engines that are derived from the GE90
and GEnx families. The wingspan for the 777-9 will be longer than any
Boeing aircraft, and will include folding wingtips to enable the aircraft to
utilize current gate positions at airports, as otherwise the new model would
require gates typically used for A380 operations (which are currently quite
limited at congested airports.)

Comparing the Aircraft

The following table compares the two aircraft on several key statistics,
based on preliminary data prior to the 777-9X launch:

The A350 cabin width is larger than the 787 and smaller than the 777X. The
result is that a typical configuration in economy would be 9 abreast at 17
inch seat width for the 787, 9 abreast at 18 inch seat width for the A350, and
10 abreast using 17 inch seat width for the 777. While the 777 is currently
offered in 9 and 10 abreast seating, recent orders have trended to 10 abreast
seating as airline seek to maximize seat-mile costs.

Page 3 of 7
 The Battle Of The Jumbos

COMPARATIVE ECONOMICS

Currently, there are 195 orders for the A350-1000 and 810 orders for A350
aircraft as a whole, despite their already higher order number, Boeing
already responded to the A350-1000’s release, announcing their 777-X
program in 2013. Two of those aircraft will carry over 400 passengers,
approaching passenger numbers of their own 747 aircraft. Airbus has not
announced plans for anything that could bridge the gap between the capacity
of the A350-1000 and the A380, which is capable of seating 850 people in
an all-economy class configuration. Airbus’s CEO Fabrice Bregier told
USA Today that his company isn’t ready to push for another large aircraft,
saying, ““It’s much too early today, and I’m not convinced that there will
be a large market,” Bregier said. “We would look at the market and the
business case. And I can tell you we’re far away from that.”

Passengers really cannot lose in this situation. As competition between the

A350 and 777 arises, the manufacturers will strive to make their aircraft
better than they ever have been before. Now, no connection is necessary to
fly distances that could have taken five or more different legs years ago. On
top of that, Boeing has said the 777-X will have the same technology as the
A350 and 787, allowing the cabin to be pressurized to a lower altitude,

Page 4 of 7
 The Battle Of The Jumbos

which is just another example of how the manufacturers are looking to better
the customer experience.

Competition is harsh between Airbus and Boeing, neither missing a chance

to subtly insult the other’s aircraft or methods. Both manufacturers,
however, feel they have accomplished their goals, at least to this point, with
their current programs, with Bregier even telling USA Today, “What we
wanted has been achieved,” before the A350-1000’s first flight. Though
they may revel in their glory for a short time, the fruits of their labors will
be able to impact their customers for decades to come.

The Airbus failed in predicting or anticipating future competitors on the

market. “They came up with the Airbus A350 XWB, which is a perfect
competitor for the current 777 but cannot compete with the Boeing 777X.
The Airbus A350 is too small to compete with the upcoming Boeing
counterparts. This might mean that Boeing will be leading the lucrative
medium-wide-body sector.”

A first comparison between A350-1000 and 777X concluded that when the
Airbus A350-1000 will enter service in 2017 it will probably be the most
efficient aircraft in the skies. Boeing's reply to the Airbus A350-1000 came
in the form of the Boeing 777X –that is the better and more efficient aircraft-
and Airbus does not seem to have an answer to that.

What a stretch of the Airbus A350-1000 means is higher capacity, lower

range and added structural weight. The addition of structural weight (for the
added frames and sizing needed for the wings) as well as increase in payload
will considerably decrease the range of a possible Airbus A350-1100. So a
stretched version only is able to compete with the Boeing 777-9X in terms
of capacity, but will lack the range capability of the Boeing 777-9X. To

Page 5 of 7
 The Battle Of The Jumbos

place a significantly more efficient engine on the Airbus A350 to increase

the range could be a possibility.

Order numbers also show that the Boeing 777X is favored over the Airbus
A350-1000; few airlines are buying the Boeing 777-8X (43 orders) that will
be the ultra-long range leader, but airlines are favoring the Boeing 777-
9X (243 orders) that has higher capacity over the Airbus A350-1000 (169
orders). The Airbus A350-1000 has not received any orders in a year now.
And since the launch of the Boeing 777X, Airbus only received 3 orders for
the Airbus A350-1000.

Both manufacturers are claiming class leading economics for their

airplanes, but in reality, they are very, very close. The 777-9 holds a 16%
advantage in capacity, which directly impacts seat-mile costs, but the A350-
1000 will have lower trip costs than its larger competitor. Our estimates for
a 6,000NM trip, based on preliminary specifications from airframe
manufacturers, economic modeling, and data gleaned from airlines, are as
follows:

Page 6 of 7
 The Battle Of The Jumbos

With very comparable seat-mile costs, the A350-1000 and 777-9X will be
competitive, and it will come down to how many seats an airline believes it
can fill. For those that can fill 400 seats, the 777-9 looks like a good
alternative, for those that prefer a lower risk, the 350 seat A350-1000 is
the right airplane.

The key question, as the OEMs continue to one up each other, is whether an
A350-1100 stretch will be built. The A350-1100 would be an all new
technology aircraft competing with a highly modified but derivative model,
and should have both lower aircraft mile costs and lower seat mile costs than
the 777-9. A stretched A350 would also help to bridge the large gap in size
between A350-1000 and A380-800.

We believe the A350-1100 will become a competitive necessity for

Airbus. With the A350-1000 due for EIS in 2017, and the 777-9X due in
late 2019 or 2020, there is still time for Airbus to bring out an additional
model in time to check the size advantage for Boeing. As airlines are looking
to larger twins to replace 747-400 with aircraft of similar capacity, the time
is right for these “super-twins” in the marketplace.

The battle in the jumbo market could have an unexpected winner: The
Boeing 777-9X.

Page 7 of 7