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Christophe J. Godlewski
To cite this article: Christophe J. Godlewski (2007) Are Ratings Consistent with Default
Probabilities?: Empirical Evidence on Banks in Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets
Finance and Trade, 43:4, 5-23
Article views: 3
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Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, vol. 43, no. 4,
July–August 2007, pp. 5–23.
© 2007 M.E. Sharpe, Inc. All rights reserved.
ISSN 1540–496X/2007 $9.50 + 0.00.
DOI 10.2753/REE1540-496X430401
CHRISTOPHE J. GODLEWSKI
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Abstract: The role of agency ratings as a market-disciplining device, through the production
of information on default risk, should grow within Pillar 3 of the Basel II reform. For the
role to be efficient, the rating must be effectively consistent with the counterpart’s default
probability, particularly for emerging markets, where less-developed financial markets,
banking-sector accrued opacity, and an inadequate regulatory, institutional, and legal
environment affect banks’ risk-taking behavior and therefore default risk. This paper uses
scoring and mapping methods to study the consistency of bank ratings with their default
probabilities in emerging market economies. Results show a correct quantification of agency
rating grades, and thus, their consistency. However, mapping results also show that the rating
tends to aggregate banks’ default risk information into intermediate-low rating grades.
Key words: bank rating, default probability, emerging market economies, market discipline,
scoring and mapping methods.
5
6 EMERGING MARKETS FINANCE AND TRADE
compared to financial markets (see, e.g., Ederington et al. 1987; Hand et al. 1992;
Helwege and Turner 1999; Reiter and Zeibert 1991), and the empirical study of
bank fragility in Southeast Asia by Bongini et al. (2002) shows that ratings are the
less discriminating and predictive indicators of distress compared to accounting
and financial market data.
However, the specificity of the rating as a device to provide synthetic informa-
tion to investors and regulators is very useful, as it contributes to market discipline.
Ratings are supposed to produce a measure of default probability for financial and
nonfinancial companies. The role is even more crucial in emerging market econo-
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mies because the regulatory and institutional environment tends to create adverse
incentives for risk taking, which needs to be counterbalanced by stronger market
discipline (Rojas-Suarez 2000; 2001).
The consistency of banks’ ratings with their default probabilities is fundamental
in this context, as it shapes proper incentives to adopt prudent risk-taking behavior.
Consistency between bank rating and default risk is a viable signal of a bank’s
soundness, allowing the market to exert its disciplining role with more power.
Thus, the banker is incited to adopt conservative risk-taking behavior, as excess
risk increases the default probability and downgrades the bank rating.1
Recently, several studies have investigated the consistency of agency ratings
with default models (e.g., Carey and Hrycay 2001). The results show a satisfactory
consistency of Moody’s ratings with default probabilities obtained with a simple
scoring model, but also put forward several problems linked to bias, instability,
and ratings manipulation. Mechanical bias, related to assigning a counterpart to a
specific rating grade, and informational bias, related to aggregating counterparts
to a specific rating grade, are relatively present. Default probability estimation
methods based on means are more suited to low-quality rating grades quantification,
whereas methods based on medians are more suited to high-quality rating grades
quantification. Mapping and scoring methods are both found to be stable. Güttler
(2004) and Krämer and Güttler (2003) examine the default prediction accuracy
for Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s ratings for different counterparts, industries,
and countries, using nonparametric bootstrapping techniques. They show that both
agencies’ ratings are good predictors, though the Moody’s rating performs slightly
better in accurately predicting default. However, evidence remains scarce concern-
ing ratings’ consistency with default probabilities for banks in emerging market
economies. Additionally, the methodologies cited above are complex and difficult
to implement in practice.
This paper seeks to investigate Moody’s bank ratings’ consistency with the results
of a scoring model in emerging markets, applying the scoring and mapping methods
proposed by Carey and Hrycay (2001). Quantifying Moody’s rating grades using a
scoring method shows a satisfactory level of consistency between the Moody’s Bank
Financial Strength Rating (MBFSR) and the observed default risk in the sample.
However, the results of the mapping method suggest a tendency to aggregate default
risk information into intermediate low–quality rating grades.
JULY–AUGUST 2007 7
Ratings Systems
Following Crouhy et al. (2001), we suppose that a rating system is based on quan-
titative and qualitative evaluations of the borrower’s solvability. The final decision
concerning the rating is based on economic and financial analysis, as well as on
the subjective judgment and experience of the analyst. Factors such as financial
documents, management quality, competition, and macroeconomic and sector
fundamentals are evaluated during the rating process. Ratings can be interpreted
as informational signals on default probability, as they aim principally to provide
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ing with the relation between ratings, asset prices and volatility, and spreads. The
results usually show a negative relation between spreads and the rating. Similar
results are obtained for the relation between market information, especially asset
prices (Basçi and Ekinci 2005; Elton et al. 2001; Hull et al. 2004).
Finally, a growing literature deals with the informational capacity of regulatory
ratings as well as market indicators (Berger et al. 2000; Bliss and Flannery 2002;
DeYoung et al. 2001; Kaplan and Lopez 2004). The results remain mitigated, but the
main conclusion advocates for a complementarity between regulatory and market
information. The regulator has access to more precise information and thus might
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Methodology
exp v
(
p DEFAULTi,t = ) 1 + exp v
with v = α + Y′i,t–1β + εi,t–1, Y′i,t–1 being the risk factors. The residuals εi,t–1 have a
logistic distribution, with a mean 0 and variance Π2/3. We explain DEFAULT
at time t with one-year lagged risk factors.
Step 2. Using the distribution of probabilities pD, we build simulated rating
grades, following Carey and Hrycay (2001) and Moody’s reports (Hamilton et
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al. 2004), which allows us to assign a simulated rating to each bank. Thus, an
ordinal risk scale is obtained.
Step 3. The following descriptive statistics are calculated: means and medians of
the estimated default probabilities pD, as well as means and medians of observed
default rates in the sample, by simulated rating grade.
Step 4. The same descriptive statistics related to pD and default rates are com-
puted by Moody’s rating grade.
Step 5. We map the simulated rating grades obtained in Step 2 into Moody’s
rating grades. We make a more precise analysis of the consistency investiga-
tion through the mapping of historical default rates corresponding to Moody’s
median ratings with observed default rates in the sample by simulated rating
grade. The consistency is satisfactory if the ratings and simulated ratings dis-
tributions correspond.
Data
Table 1
Sources: Moody’s Investors Service, Global Credit Research; Poon et al. (1999).
Note: This table reports the number of observations for each MBFSR grade in the sample
and a brief definition of each rating grade.
country within the sample. Frequencies of Moody’s BFSR rating, by region and
by year, are shown in Tables 3 and 4, respectively.
South and Central American banks account for almost 50 percent of the sample,
followed by Southeast Asian banks. Almost one-third of the defaults occurred in
1998, their repartition being between 10 percent and 15 percent per year for the
following years.
We use a scoring model with five proxies of the main risk factors found in the
literature (see Demirgüç-Kunt 1989), which have a significant effect on banks’
default probability.8 The risk factors are chosen following the results of the study by
Godlewski (2006), the main aim of which was to investigate the validity of CAMEL
(capital, asset quality, management quality, earnings, and liquidity)-type risk fac-
tors for bank default studies in emerging markets. We select the risk factors with
JULY–AUGUST 2007 11
Table 2
Argentina AR 40 8.28
Brazil BR 52 10.77
Colombia CO 23 4.76
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Note: This table reports the number of rated banks and their frequencies by country in the
sample.
Table 3
Total
percent
B C D E by region
Asia 12 13 50 93 168
percent 7.14 7.14 29.76 55.36 34.78
Eastern Europe 0 10 68 22 100
percent 0 10 68 22 20.7
Total 12 57 237 177 483
percent by rating
grade 2.48 11.8 49.07 36.65 100
Note: This table reports the frequencies of the MBFSR by geographical region in the
sample.
Table 4
Default Number
rate (percent) of rated banks
1998 10.56 51
1999 20.08 97
2000 21.95 106
2001 25.26 122
2002 22.15 107
Total 100 483
Note: This table reports the number of rated banks and the frequencies of bank defaults
by year in the sample.
The descriptive statistics of different balance sheet ratios, particularly their means
for default versus nondefault, are aberrant for small default banks, indicating that
other factors, probably macroeconomic, are the source of the problem. We therefore
bound the variable for total assets to eliminate small banks (total assets > Q1, first
quartile = $105.11 million). The size criterion determines our sample; we then focus
on banks that mainly engage in credit allocation, and therefore, the main source of
risk is credit risk. We thus bound the variables of net loans to total assets and total
JULY–AUGUST 2007 13
Table 5
Standard
Variable N Mean deviation Minimum Maximum
Defaults
Nondefaults
Source: Bankscope.
Notes: This table reports descriptive statistics of the explanatory variables used in the
scoring model in the sample. N = number of observations.
deposits to total assets by eliminating the first percentile (p10 = 25.32 percent of
total assets and p5 = 26.81 percent of total assets, respectively). A second bank’s
activity criterion determines our sample. Finally, we bound the ratio of loan loss
reserves to nonperforming loans to eliminate the outlier, corresponding to the last
p99, which is equal to 448.73 percent.
After having bounded and cleaned the data, we obtain a sample of 478 banks,
covering emerging market economies from Southeast Asia, South America, and
Central and Eastern Europe. Sixty-eight defaults are present in the sample. The
time period investigated is from 1998 to 2002. The results for each of the five steps
of the methodology described above are as follows.
Step 1
Table 6
Variables Coefficient
INTERCEPT –5.221*
(2.84)
EQUTOTASSETS –0.231***
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(0.07)
LLOSSRESNPL –0.019***
(0.01)
PERSEXPENSE 0.02
(0.01)
NETINTMARGIN –0.192***
(0.01)
LIQUIDASSETS –0.06***
(0.01)
LOGTOTASSETS 0.453***
(0.11)
Number of defaults 68
Number of banks 478
Likelihood ratio 175.97***
Log likelihood –107.54
Default reclassification rate 88.2
Nondefault reclassification rate 83.7
Notes: This table reports the results of the scoring model. The dependent variable is
DEFAULT. Explanatory variables are one year lagged. *** and * are significant coeffi-
cients at 1 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Standard errors are shown in parentheses.
Step 2
We split the estimated default probability interval following Carey and Hrycay
(2001) and Hamilton et al. (2004). However, we aggregate the probabilities into
JULY–AUGUST 2007 15
Table 7
pD Simulated grade
< 0.0025 1
[0.0025, 0.01] 2
[0.01, 0.05] 3
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≥ 0.05 4
Note: This table reports the cutoff points of the estimated default probability using the
scoring model to define the four simulated rating grades.
four grades as we work on four rating grades for the MBFSR in our sample (B,
C, D, and E). The obtained simulated rating grades, using the estimated default
probabilities interval, are shown in Table 7.9
Step 3
Using the estimated default probability means and medians, we quantify each
simulated rating grade, comparing the results with observed default rates in the
sample by simulated rating grade. Table 8 shows the results.
First, we obtain a monotonic relation between the mean estimated default prob-
abilities and the observed default rates in the sample by simulated rating grade.
Mean estimated default probabilities are relatively consistent with observed default
rates, particularly for the riskiest grade, the fourth, which has a mean estimated
default probability of 34.26 percent and an observed default rate of 32.63 percent.
The consistency is lower for the safest grades, the first and second, for which there
are no observed defaults in the sample. This result is in line with Carey and Hrycay
(2001), as means-based quantification methods are more suited to low rating grades.
The mean and median values of the estimated default probabilities are close. For the
simulated rating grades containing defaults, the mean estimated default probability
values are within the 95 percent confidence interval limits for the observed default
rate, which contribute to validating the consistency level. We also observe that the
standard deviation values for the mean estimated default probabilities increase
with simulated rating grades and are lower than the standard deviations for mean
default rates. The standard deviation gives a measure of default risk homogeneity
by rating grade (simulated and Moody’s), as it is not always guaranteed by the
rating system (see, e.g., Blochwitz and Holh 2001). Finally, except for the first
and second simulated grades that have no observed default, 95 percent confidence
interval limits for the estimated default probability and the observed default rate
are overlapping.
16 EMERGING MARKETS FINANCE AND TRADE
Table 8
Means and Medians of the Estimated Default Probability and Default Rate
(by simulated rating grade)
Grades
1 2 3 4
Notes: This table reports the results of the simulated rating quantification using the
scoring model by simulated rating grade. The estimated default probability using the
logit model is noted as pD. As the number of observations by rating grade (simulated and
Moody’s) is low, we use exact confidence interval limits under the hypothesis of binomial
distribution of the proportions.
Step 4
We now proceed to quantifying Moody’s rating grades using the scoring method,
calculating default probabilities by MBFSR grade using individual default prob-
abilities estimated with the logit model. Table 9 presents mean and median estimated
default probabilities, observed default rates, 95 percent confidence interval limits,
and standard deviations for estimated default probabilities and observed default
rates, by Moody’s BFSR grade.
JULY–AUGUST 2007 17
Table 9
Means and Medians of Estimated Default Probability and Default Rate (by
MBFSR grade)
MBFSR
B C D E
Notes: This table reports the results of the MBFSR quantification using the scoring
model by MBFSR grade. Estimated default probability using the logit model is noted.
As the number of observations by rating grade (simulated and Moody’s) is low, we use
exact confidence interval limits under the hypothesis of binomial distribution of the
proportions.
The rating should be through the cycle by nature, whereas the logit model
estimates a point-in-time default probability. However, if the default model can
correctly estimate individual default probabilities at a horizon of one year, it should
also allow us to estimate correctly the mean default probability by Moody’s BFSR
grade.10
Following the results in Table 9, we conclude in favor of a consistency of mean
estimated default probabilities with observed default rates by Moody’s BFSR grade,
except for grade B, for which no defaults are observed in the sample. The estimated
mean default probabilities are 1.49 percent, 7.67 percent, and 27.88 percent for
grades C, D, and E, respectively, with corresponding default rates at 3.63 percent,
18 EMERGING MARKETS FINANCE AND TRADE
8.55 percent, and 25.99 percent, respectively. Thus, except for MBFSR grade B,
all of the mean estimated default probabilities are within the 95 percent confidence
interval limits for the default rate. However, except for grade B, the mean and me-
dian estimated default probabilities diverge. The standard deviations of estimated
default probabilities and default rates increase with Moody’s BFSR grades and are
less divergent than the means and medians, suggesting that the MBFSR becomes
less homogenous as the risk increases, which can be explained by a stronger role of
the analyst’s subjective judgement in the rating grade assignment. We also remark
that the 95 percent confidence interval limits for the estimated default probabilities
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and the default rates overlap for the MBFSR grades C, D, and E, allowing us to
validate the consistency results.
Step 5
Finally, we use the default probability, or the one-year transition to the default grade,
of the Moody’s rating grades to map the simulated rating system onto the agency
rating system. Table 10 shows the results. Historical default rates correspond to the
mean historical transition rates to the DEFAULT category at a one-year horizon
over the time period 1998–2002 for the emerging markets in the sample.11
The last simulated grade, the fourth, corresponds to Moody’s BFSR grade E,
whereas the first three simulated grades correspond to the MBFSR grade D. This
may suggest a form of default risk information aggregation by the Moody’s BFSR
rating. We also remark that the historical default rates corresponding to the Moody’s
rating overestimate observed default rates for low-risk simulated grades and under-
estimate observed default rates for high-risk simulated grades. Even for the last and
most risky simulated fourth grade, the historical default rate is 14.29 percent, over
two times lower than the observed default rate for this grade, 32.63 percent. The
value of the historical default rate lies outside the 95 percent confidence interval
limits for each rating grade. The means of the MBFSR are close to 3 for the first
three simulated rating grades, corresponding to grade D for Moody’s. The mean
MBFSR for the last simulated rating grade is 3.6, close to grade E for Moody’s.
The MBFSR’s standard error by simulated rating grade lies between 0.6 and 0.9,
showing the presence of heterogeneity within the rating grades.
Our results are close to Carey and Hrycay (2001) in several aspects. First, regard-
ing the ability of a scoring model to assign and quantify simulated rating grades,
we also find that the estimated sample mean fitted default probabilities are close to
the actual default rates for the high-risk grades (C and D). Second, regarding the
ability of the scoring model to quantify agency rating grades, our results show also
that the means perform better for the risky grades. As to mapping the simulated
rating system onto the Moody’s rating system, our results are slightly different from
Carey and Hrycay (2001) in that they tend to aggregate default risk information
into risky grades; the first three simulated rating grades correspond to a MBFSR
median value of D. This result is partially driven by the quality of the banks in our
sample, which are from emerging market economies and are therefore more risky
JULY–AUGUST 2007 19
Table 10
Grades
1 2 3 4
Median MBFSR D D D E
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Notes: This table reports the results of the mapping of the simulated rating system into
the MBFSR system by MBFSR grade. The estimated default probability using the
logit model is noted pD. As the number of observations by rating grade (simulated and
Moody’s) is low, we use exact confidence interval limits under the hypothesis of binomial
distribution of the proportions.
than they are in the sample used by Carey and Hrycay (2001).12 Another possible
explanation for our result is the time period under investigation, as the end of the
1990s was a period of financial distress in many emerging markets, affecting bank
quality and default risk.
Conclusion
Notes
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1. In the banking industry, the consistency feature is even more crucial because of banks’
assets opacity (Morgan 2002).
2. See Kräussl (2005) for an example.
3. The literature dealing with internal ratings is not discussed in this paper. We invite
the reader to consult contributions by Machauer and Weber (1998) and Treacy and Carey
(2000), which focus on this topic.
4. For example, ratings transitions matrices are important inputs for credit derivatives
pricing.
5. However, this stability might be inconvenient when the rating integrates new informa-
tion too slowly regarding a counterpart’s situation, which then harms the rating informational
capacity (Löffler 2005). See also Posch (2006) for additional evidence on the stickiness of
rating changes.
6. See Maddala (1983) for a detailed description of logit models.
7. We do not have any banks with A ratings, as these are very rare in emerging mar-
kets.
8. See also Staikouras (2005) for recent empirical evidence on financial crisis scoring
models for emerging market economies.
9. The number of observations by simulated rating grade is, in increasing grade order:
116, 64, 108, and 109.
10. The present study aims not to investigate the effect of a time horizon on scoring
model performances. For such an investigation, see Altman and Rijken (2004), who show
that agency ratings are rather stable through business cycles, validating the through-the-cycle
hypothesis. The prudent transition policy is the main explanation for this result.
11. Source: Credit Risk Calculator, Moody’s Investor Services. We use the transition
matrix excluding withdrawn ratings, with the following correspondence between the Moody’s
credit ratings and MBFSR (the speculative grade begins at the Baa rating for Moody’s):
Aaa = A, Aa = B, A = C, Baa-B = D, Caa-C = E. For the DEFAULT category, we use the
weighted mean of the transition rates. The summary of the Moody’s transition matrix is
given in Appendix Table A1.
12. The importance of banks rated D in our sample could affect this result, especially
in Latin America and Eastern Europe, where such banks account for 55.35 percent and 68
percent of the sample, respectively.
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Table A1
Rating to
Ratings Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa-C Default
Notes: This table reports the summary of the Moody’s rating one-year transition matrix for the countries in the sample over the period
1998–2002. Letter migration-rate summary excluding withdrawn ratings. Average one-year rating migration rates for December 31, 1998, to
December 31, 2002.
JULY–AUGUST 2007
23