Outline Forecasting for Management Decisions Data Patterns and Choice of Forecasting Techniques The Macroeconomy and

Introductory
Business
Forecasting:
Learning

Introductory Business Forecasting: Objectives (LO)

ITH Phanny
Learning Objectives (LO)
Outline

Forecasting for
Management
ITH Phanny Decisions

Data Patterns and

Choice of
Phnom Penh International University, Forecasting
Techniques
Phnom Penh, Camboida
The
Macroeconomy
August 28, 2016 and Business
Forecasts
Email: phannyith1@gmail.com Data Collection
To Accompany Business Forecasting: A Practical Approach, and Analysis in
Forecasting
A. Reza Hoshmand, 2E
Forecasting with
Smoothing
Techniques

Forecasting with
Simple & Multiple
1 / 13
Regression
Outline Forecasting for Management Decisions Data Patterns and Choice of Forecasting Techniques The Macroeconomy and

Introductory
Business
Forecasting:
1 Forecasting for Management Decisions Learning
Objectives (LO)

ITH Phanny
2 Data Patterns and Choice of Forecasting Techniques
Outline

3 The Macroeconomy and Business Forecasts Forecasting for

Management
Decisions

4 Data Collection and Analysis in Forecasting Data Patterns and

Choice of
Forecasting
Techniques
5 Forecasting with Smoothing Techniques The
Macroeconomy
and Business
6 Forecasting with Simple & Multiple Regression Forecasts

Data Collection
and Analysis in
Forecasting
7 Self-Dialogue: Practical Tips
Forecasting with
Smoothing
Techniques

Forecasting with
Simple & Multiple
2 / 13
Regression
Outline Forecasting for Management Decisions Data Patterns and Choice of Forecasting Techniques The Macroeconomy and

Introductory
Bloom’s Taxonomy: Learning Objectives Business
Forecasting:
Learning
Objectives (LO)

ITH Phanny

Outline

Forecasting for
Management
Decisions

Data Patterns and

Choice of
Forecasting
Techniques

The
Macroeconomy
and Business
Forecasts

Data Collection
and Analysis in
Forecasting

Forecasting with
Smoothing
Techniques

Forecasting with
Simple & Multiple
3 / 13
Regression
Outline Forecasting for Management Decisions Data Patterns and Choice of Forecasting Techniques The Macroeconomy and

Introductory
Forecasting Method Summary Business
Forecasting:
Learning
Objectives (LO)

ITH Phanny

Outline

Forecasting for
Management
Decisions

Data Patterns and

Choice of
Forecasting
Techniques

The
Macroeconomy
and Business
Forecasts

Data Collection
and Analysis in
Forecasting

Forecasting with
Smoothing
Techniques

Forecasting with
Simple & Multiple
4 / 13
Regression
Outline Forecasting for Management Decisions Data Patterns and Choice of Forecasting Techniques The Macroeconomy and

Introductory
Ch.01: Forecasting for Management Decisions Business
Forecasting:
Learning
Objectives (LO)

ITH Phanny

Outline
After studying this chapter, you should be able to: Forecasting for
Management
• Define business forecasting Decisions

Data Patterns and

• Provide the aim of business forecast Choice of
Forecasting
• Provide the objective of forecasting Techniques

The
• Identify art and science of forecasting Macroeconomy
and Business
• Identify 7 steps of forecasting process Forecasts

Data Collection
and Analysis in
Forecasting

Forecasting with
Smoothing
Techniques

Forecasting with
Simple & Multiple
5 / 13
Regression
Outline Forecasting for Management Decisions Data Patterns and Choice of Forecasting Techniques The Macroeconomy and

Introductory
Ch.02: Data Patterns and Choice of Forecasting Business
Forecasting:
Techniques Learning
Objectives (LO)

ITH Phanny

After studying this chapter, you should be able to: Outline

• Identify 3 factors of data pattern Forecasting for
Management
• Identify forecasting methodologies Decisions

Data Patterns and

• Define quanlitative models Choice of
Forecasting
• Define quantitative models Techniques

The
• Provide 3 examples of autoregressive techniques Macroeconomy
and Business
• Provide goal of regression model Forecasts

Data Collection
• Identify the characteristics of selecting techniques and Analysis in
Forecasting
• Evaluate the models from statistical analyses to Forecasting with
graphical procedures Smoothing
Techniques

Forecasting with
Simple & Multiple
6 / 13
Regression
Outline Forecasting for Management Decisions Data Patterns and Choice of Forecasting Techniques The Macroeconomy and

Introductory
Ch.03: The Macroeconomy and Business Business
Forecasting:
Forecasts Learning
Objectives (LO)

ITH Phanny

After studying this chapter, you should be able to: Outline

• Identify major macroeconomic goals Forecasting for

Management
• Distinguish the four phases of business cycle Decisions

Data Patterns and

• Explain the four phases of business cycle Choice of
Forecasting
• Identify what forecaster depends on in building Techniques

The
macroeconomic model Macroeconomy
and Business
• Provide examples of exongenous factor Forecasts

• Provide example of endogenous variables Data Collection

and Analysis in
Forecasting
• Summarize the linkages between the Macroeconomy,
Forecasting with
Industry, and Firms Smoothing
Techniques

Forecasting with
Simple & Multiple
7 / 13
Regression
Outline Forecasting for Management Decisions Data Patterns and Choice of Forecasting Techniques The Macroeconomy and

Introductory
Ch.04: Data Collection and Analysis in Business
Forecasting:
Forecasting Learning
Objectives (LO)

ITH Phanny

After studying this chapter, you should be able to: Outline

• Identify data adjustment and transformation Forecasting for
Management
• Identify 3 business conditions to data adjustment Decisions

Data Patterns and

• Calculate average number of trading days Choice of
Forecasting
• Identify the important element of good forecasting Techniques

The
• Explain the linear transformation Macroeconomy
and Business
• Identify the four components of time series data Forecasts

Data Collection
• Apply 3 approaches to measure the secular trend for and Analysis in
Forecasting
linear equation
Forecasting with
• Compute projected revenue for domestic airline example Smoothing
Techniques

Forecasting with
Simple & Multiple
8 / 13
Regression
Outline Forecasting for Management Decisions Data Patterns and Choice of Forecasting Techniques The Macroeconomy and

Introductory
Ch.05: Forecasting with Smoothing Techniques Business
Forecasting:
Learning
Objectives (LO)

ITH Phanny

Outline
After studying this chapter, you should be able to:
Forecasting for
• Discuss 3 types of forecasting techniques: naive, Management
Decisions
averaging, and smoothing Data Patterns and
Choice of
• Apply naive model in forecasting Forecasting
Techniques
• Apply averaging models: simple average and moving The
average Macroeconomy
and Business
Forecasts
• Apply exponential smoothing models
Data Collection
and Analysis in
Forecasting

Forecasting with
Smoothing
Techniques

Forecasting with
Simple & Multiple
9 / 13
Regression
Outline Forecasting for Management Decisions Data Patterns and Choice of Forecasting Techniques The Macroeconomy and

Introductory
Ch.06: Forecasting with Simple & Multiple Business
Forecasting:
Regression Learning
Objectives (LO)

ITH Phanny
After studying this chapter, you should be able to:
• Identify and define dependent and independent variable Outline

Forecasting for
• State the concept of the least squares criterion Management
Decisions
• Identify the estimates b0 , b1 and b2 from statistical Data Patterns and
software Choice of
Forecasting
Techniques
• Interpret the b0 , b1 and b2 of an estimated regression
The
equation Macroeconomy
and Business
• Evaluate three methods of fit numberically Forecasts

Data Collection
• Identify and state regression standard error from and Analysis in
Forecasting
statistical software
Forecasting with
• Calculate and interpret R 2 Smoothing
Techniques
• Calculate and compare adjusted R 2 between two models Forecasting with
Simple & Multiple
10 / 13
Regression
Outline Forecasting for Management Decisions Data Patterns and Choice of Forecasting Techniques The Macroeconomy and

Introductory
Ch.06: Forecasting with Simple & Multiple Business
Forecasting:
Regression (Con’t) Learning
Objectives (LO)

ITH Phanny
After studying this chapter, you should be able to:
• Calculate the multiple correlation coefficient Outline

Forecasting for
• Calculate global F-test Management
Decisions
• Decide whether to reject or not reject the null
Data Patterns and
• Compare reduced and complete models Choice of
Forecasting
Techniques
• Identify hypothesis for bp
The
• Identify individual t-test from statistical software Macroeconomy
and Business
• Interpret the model result Forecasts

Data Collection
• Differentiate between confidence and prediction and Analysis in
Forecasting
intervals
Forecasting with
• Calculate confidence interval for population mean, E(Y ) Smoothing
Techniques
• Compare confidence interval with prediction interval Forecasting with
Simple & Multiple
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Regression
Outline Forecasting for Management Decisions Data Patterns and Choice of Forecasting Techniques The Macroeconomy and

Introductory
Self-Dialogue: Practical Tips Business
Forecasting:
Learning
Self-Dialogue is designed to help you become more engaged Objectives (LO)

in your learning process. As you go through this course, keep ITH Phanny

a journal of your thoughts and feelings about your learning Outline

by prompting your Responses to the following Questions: Forecasting for
Management
Decisions
• (1) What are you learning this section of the course? Data Patterns and
Choice of
• (2) How are you learning? Are you learning by reading Forecasting
Techniques
the textbook, listening to the instructor’s lectures,
The
writing paper, doing projects, or by other methods? Macroeconomy
and Business
• (3) Is this new knowledge you are learning? If so, what Forecasts
is new? If not, what did you already know? Data Collection
and Analysis in
• (4) How does the learning in this course fit into your Forecasting

life? How does it help you with your life goals—both Forecasting with
Smoothing
personally and professionally? Techniques

Forecasting with
Simple & Multiple
Sources: The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 12 / 13
Regression
Outline Forecasting for Management Decisions Data Patterns and Choice of Forecasting Techniques The Macroeconomy and

Introductory
Self-Dialogue: Practical Tips (Con’t) Business
Forecasting:
Learning
Self-Dialogue is designed to help you become more engaged Objectives (LO)

in your learning process. As you go through this course, keep ITH Phanny

a journal of your thoughts and feelings about your learning Outline

by prompting your Responses to the following Questions: Forecasting for
Management
Decisions
• (5) How does the learning in this course make you feel Data Patterns and
Choice of
about yourself? Forecasting
Techniques
• (6) How will you use the learning in the course of your
The
life—both personally and professionally? Macroeconomy
and Business
• (7) How has the learning in this course broadened your Forecasts
view or changed your life? Data Collection
and Analysis in
• (8) What experience in your life can relate you to the Forecasting

materials in this course? Forecasting with

Smoothing
Techniques

Sources: The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Forecasting with

Simple & Multiple
13 / 13
Regression