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2.1 OVERVIEW
In Chapter 1, we discussed various features, benefits, and metrics of multihazard (MH) consider-
ations in civil infrastructures. We also contended that the utilizations of such benefits have been fairly
limited. The primary reason for this limitation is the lack of adequate processes (e.g., analysis and
design modules), which can be reliably used to take advantage of many of the MH considerations. In
order to establish such processes, we will take a closer look at the subject of MH starting from form-
ing a theoretical basis. This will be our task in this chapter before we embark on more in-depth civil
infrastructure applications in later chapters based on the theoretical basis developed in this chapter.
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18 Multihazard Considerations in Civil Infrastructure
necessary for the achievement of organizational aims. A risk score associated with an activity was
calculated as a product of the severity of the hazard, degree of exposure, and probability of the haz-
ard occurring. The program will calculate the risk score for a particular activity based on user input.
Depending on the risk score, the model will suggest a recommended action. If a corrective action is
required, the model will calculate a justification factor by dividing the risk score with the product
of cost factor and degree of correction. The cost factor was determined from the cost of correction,
which is a measure of the estimated dollar cost of the proposed corrective action. The degree of
correction was an estimate of the degree to which the proposed corrective action will eliminate the
hazard. Authors provided some guidance for these factors but prudently suggested that a competent
risk analyst conduct the risk assessment.
Ensuring consistent design for all hazards subjected by a structure is important in improving
safety and optimizing cost-effectiveness. The performance-based engineering paradigm requires
satisfying structural performance objectives at various hazard levels while addressing competing
hazards to achieve overall building performance goals. Realizing this, Li and Ellingwood (2009)
presented a comparative assessment of hurricane and earthquake risks to residential construction
as these two hazards are commonly experienced by structures in several parts of the United States.
Two typical one-story residences designated with different levels of wind and earthquake protec-
tion were selected to illustrate some of the fundamental notions of this comparative risk assess-
ment—one was designed for historically accepted standards and the other for enhanced standards
to comply with modern codes (PATH 2000, WFCM 2001). They considered three qualitative dam-
age states—minor or light, moderate, and severe for wind and earthquake hazards, while risks
associated with these two hazards were compared using hazard return period as a common control
variable. Then they evaluated probabilities of various damage levels associated with design basis
events and determined the annual probabilities of various levels of damage due to a hurricane or
earthquake. Based on their assessment, they concluded that adopting enhanced construction stan-
dards reduces the probability of moderate to severe damage under design basis events more notice-
ably than the probability of only minor or surficial damage for most cities.
Durability, including thermal cracking as well as wear and tear, is an integral issue for any MH
considerations in civil infrastructures. Specifically, structural concrete cracking has been an issue
that has been around since the invention of concrete, and there has been considerable research in the
past with more research ongoing. Emborg and Benander (1994) describe their laboratory research
and theoretical modeling on thermal stresses and thermal cracking in maturing concrete. They
conclude, among others, that crack criteria that are purely based on temperature differentials offer
a poor basis for crack prediction in hardening concrete and are only justified in specific situations.
Many important factors other than temperature should be considered, such as varying degrees of
axial and rotational restraint in different elements of the structure and the influence of transient
mechanical properties of the young concrete, as well as the practical implications of the different
nature of transient cracks and permanent through cracks on the durability and function of concrete
structures. These other factors should be considered when defining criteria for the risk of cracking.
Finally, recognizing that the application of true MH principles requires multidisciplinary
approach, Potra and Simiu (2009) illustrate the use of the optimization theory based on nonlinear
programming principles and apply it to a simple case. Their formulation of the design problem
intends to optimize all the constraints related to all the hazards considered in the design to achieve
the most economical solution.
MH theoretical considerations
Qualitative
Objective basis How do hazards
descriptions
for MH process interact?
of MH process
subjective considerations of MH are important, as well as simple, there is still a need for objective
MH considerations if we are to realize the MH benefits. We close this chapter with an exhaustive,
yet not complete, list of the different ways hazards interact both through the physical system (MPT)
and through MH-related decisions (MDT).
This theory would help in giving perspective, which is concise and systematic. The theory of
MHs offers two doctrines for systems: inherent resilience for all hazards and the interrelation-
ships between the manners in which the system responds to those hazards. By utilizing these two
doctrines, the potential benefits, as summarized in Chapter 1, would be achieved during structural
analysis and structural design. Actually, MPT has potential benefits that span all components of risk-
based management and resilience-based management as we will demonstrate in the later chapters.
The MDT is simply a resultant of MPT but can have major effects in providing optimal decisions in
the risk treatment phase, as well as other phases of risk-based management practices.
20 Multihazard Considerations in Civil Infrastructure
The resulting assessed risks before and after retrofits are also shown in Table 2.10. We note that
while the earthquake risk was fairly acceptable at 12.6% before blast retrofits, the blast risk was
medium at 43.2%, which required some kind of blast retrofit. The blast risk after retrofit decreased
to 21.6%, which indicates a successful blast retrofit effort. Unfortunately, due to the changes in
the modal behavior of the structure that resulted from the blast retrofit, the earthquake risk has
increased now from the original 12.6% to 50.4%. The interaction between the two hazards, through
* It is also widely accepted that such interactions do not mean a simultaneous occurrence of both hazards. There is no load-
ing design condition that requires the placement of both hazards simultaneously, even at a reduced load factor, ASCE/
SEI 59-11 (2011).
Theoretical Background
TABLE 2.1
Multihazard Table: Interaction with Fatigue
Corrosion Scour Fire Wind Seismic Impact Overload Wear and Tear Gravity
Stress corrosion Fatigue of Response of Wind-induced Seismic-induced Response of Repeated over or Repeated Gravity-generated live
and hydrogen chemical gels systems to high-cyclic high-cyclic systems to illegal loading- environmental loads (such as traffic
embitterment (in Chapter 1 severe fires stresses have stresses have demands of induced cyclic demands (thermal, loads on highway
(in Chapter 4 by Ettouney can be affected direct effects direct effects high-impact higher stresses freeze–thaw, bridges or rail traffic
by Ettouney and Alampalli by reduced on fatigue. on fatigue. amplitudes can have direct etc.)–induced cyclic on railroad bridges)
and Alampalli 2012) has a fatigue be affected by effects on fatigue. stresses have direct are the primary
2012) can both direct effect capacity of reduced fatigue effects on fatigue. source of fatigue.
have an effect on scour. systems. capacity of
on fatigue systems.
behavior of
high-strength
cables.
21
22 Multihazard Considerations in Civil Infrastructure
TABLE 2.2
Multihazard Table: Interaction with Corrosion
Scour Fire Wind Seismic Impact Overload Gravity Wear and Tear
Corrosion in Limited Loss of strength or ductility due to corrosion (e.g., There is a direct
submerged interactions high-strength cables, susceptibility to stress corrosion, interrelation between
foundation can might occur or hydrogen embitterment) can affect long-term corrosion damage
be affected by between resistance to high-wind, seismic, impact, overload, or and wear and tear
soil erosion that corrosion and gravity hazards. (see Ettouney and
might happen fire. Generally, Alampalli 2012).
due to scouring. not applicable.
TABLE 2.3
Multihazard Table: Interaction with Scour
Wear
Fire Wind Seismic Impact Overload and Tear Gravity
Limited Loss of Loss of Loss of Loss of Loss of Loss of
interactions foundation foundation foundation foundation foundation foundation
might occur support due support due support due support due support due support due
between scour to scour to scour to scour to scour to scour to scour
and fire. might have might have might have might have might might have
an effect on an effect on an effect on an effect on accelerate an effect on
global wind global global global deterioration a structure’s
resistance. seismic impact overload of affected gravity load
resistance. resistance. resistance. foundations. resistance.
TABLE 2.4
Multihazard Table: Interaction with Fire
Wind Seismic Impact Overload Wear and Tear Gravity
Fire damage, if Fire damage, if not Fire damage, if Fire damage, if Fire damage, if Fire damage, if
not retrofitted retrofitted properly, not retrofitted not retrofitted not retrofitted not retrofitted
properly, can can reduce properly, can properly, can properly, can properly, can
reduce resistance to reduce reduce accelerate reduce resistance
resistance to earthquake effects. resistance to resistance to wear and tear to gravity loads.
high wind. impact hazard. overloads. deterioration.
the physical system (natural modes), have caused such a conflicting behavior. Note that this is a
direct result of the MPT.
Upon further reflection of this simple MH exhibit, we can reveal many other issues and questions
of importance such as the following:
• Is risk the only possible management paradigm for which MH can manifest itself in?
• What are the different methods of addressing MH interactions and quantifying them, in
addition to the just prescribed process that resulted in Table 2.10?
• We stated that the blast risk level, in an MH environment, of 43.2% was not acceptable,
while the earthquake level, again in an MH environment, of 12.6% was acceptable. Are the
Theoretical Background 23
TABLE 2.5
Multihazard Table: Interaction with Wind
Seismic Impact Overload Wear and Tear Gravity
Wind and seismic Local nature of impact Differences in Wear and tear Gravity load demands
loads have many loads makes their temporal and losses can affect will reduce available
similarities interaction with wind spatial distributions wind resistance. capacity to resist
(including the global loads less likely. On of wind and wind demands.
nature of both the other hand, overload make
loads). Thus, there is damages of impact interaction less
a high degree of loads, if not treated likely.
interactions between properly, can reduce
the two hazards. wind resistance.
TABLE 2.6
Multihazard Table: Interaction with Seismic
Impact Overload Wear and Tear Gravity
The local nature of impact Differences in temporal and Wear and tear losses can There are interactions
loads makes their interaction spatial distributions of affect seismic resistance. between gravity loads
with seismic loads less seismic and overload make and seismic loads.
likely. On the other hand, interaction less likely.
damages of impact loads, if
not treated properly, can
reduce seismic resistance.
TABLE 2.7
Multihazard Table: Interaction with Impact
Overload Wear and Tear Gravity
Impact effects can reduce Wear and tear losses can Gravity load demands will reduce available
resistance to overloads. affect impact resistance. capacity to resist impact demands.
TABLE 2.8
Multihazard Table: Interaction with Overload
Wear and Tear Gravity
Wear and tear losses can affect overload resistance. There are interactions between gravity loads and overload.
TABLE 2.9
Multihazard Table: Interaction with Wear and Tear
Gravity
There are interactions between gravity loads and wear and tear. Wear
and tear can reduce the capacity to resist to gravity loads.
24 Multihazard Considerations in Civil Infrastructure
TABLE 2.10
Simple MH Risk Assessment Results
Consequences
State Hazard Threat (0–10 Scale) Vulnerability (0–10 Scale) (0–10 Scale) Risk (%)
Before retrofit Blast 6 8 9 43.2
Earthquake 7 2 9 12.6
After retrofit Blast 6 4 9 21.6
Earthquake 7 8 9 50.4
Theoretical Background 25
Even though the exhibit mentioned earlier, and perhaps other similarly simple MH situations, might
be possible to address in a subjective manner, it is clear that addressing these questions satisfactorily
will need objective approaches. It is also clear that all of the issues mentioned are related in the end
to the basic issue of interest to the civil infrastructure community: adequate performance at reason-
able costs. Based on this, we will aim the remainder of this chapter to MH studies, discussions, and
solutions of the issues mentioned earlier.
TABLE 2.11
MH Interaction Processes
MH Interaction Process Objective MH Definitions and Processes Metric Chapter(s)
Analysis Measure of relative response levels at a Any system response, e.g., 3
particular region of the system due to two displacement, stress, force,
hazards. The region can be as limited as a velocity, or safety margins.
single node or as large as the whole
system of interest.
Design Account for all design limit states during Reliability; capacity to 4
the design process, in parallel, so as to demand ratios
optimize acceptance ratios.
Design and analysis MH interactions are defined as the rate of Exposure 4
change of exposure of the system to a
hazard due to a change in another hazard.
Decision-making MH interactions are defined as the rate of Risk; resilience 5 and 6
change of risk (or resilience) of the system to
a hazard due to a change in another hazard.
Decision-making, life-cycle The effects of a decision that are made Risk; resilience; LCA 6 through 8
analysis (LCA) regarding one hazard on the behavior of
the system subjected to another hazard.
Modeling, decision-making, Effects of including more than one hazard Risk, exposure, reliability 9 and 10
system performance while modeling performance metrics such
as risk, reliability, or exposure.
LCA Effects of accommodating hazards in parallel, LCA 9
not in series, while computing LCA.
26 Multihazard Considerations in Civil Infrastructure
TABLE 2.12
Details of MH Interaction Metrics and Processes in Different Case Studies
Physical Decision
Case Study # Metrics MH Method and/or Process Theory of MH Theory of MH
3.1 Displacements MH interaction matrix shows a Y
subjective measure of how
computed displacements due to
different static hazards relate to
each other.
3.2 Forces MH interaction matrix shows a Y
subjective measure of how a
computed force due to different
static hazards relates to each other.
3.3 Displacements MH interaction matrix shows a Y
subjective measure of how
computed displacements due to
different dynamic hazards relate to
each other (building frame).
3.4 Displacements MH interaction matrix shows a Y
subjective measure of how
computed displacements due to
different dynamic hazards relate to
each other (truss bridge).
3.5 Displacements MH interaction matrix shows a Y
subjective measure of how
computed displacements due to
static (wind) and dynamic (seismic)
hazards relate to each other
(building frame).
3.6 Displacements MH interaction matrix shows a Y
subjective measure of how
computed displacements due to
static (wind) and dynamic (seismic
and blast) hazards relate to each
other (building frame).
3.7 Displacements MH interaction matrix shows a Y
subjective measure of how
computed displacements due to
static (live load) and dynamic
(seismic) hazards relate to each
other (truss bridge).
3.8 Ductility MH interaction matrix shows a Y
subjective measure of how
computed displacement ductility
due to different hazards relate to
each other.
4.1 Vulnerability MH interaction matrix shows a Y
subjective measure of how
computed vulnerability due to
different hazards relate to each other
(mass transit stations).
(Continued)
Theoretical Background 27
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