Problem 24:

A cantilevered structure is subject to two loads P 1 and P2. Both loads are normally
distributed; the respective parameters are as follows:

P1  15 kN  P1  5 kN

P2  5 kN  P2  2 kN

The two loads are correlated with a correlation coefficient of  = 5/6.

P1 P2
A

10 m 5m

a) Determine the probability density function for the bending moment in A, i.e. specify
the type of distribution and determine the basic describing parameters.

b) Determine the safety index  and the failure probability assuming that the load
bearing capacity follows a normal distribution with a mean value of 925 kNm and an
sdev-value of 243.67 kNm.

Table for the standardized normal distribution

x 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0
(x) 0.0540 0.0440 0.0355 0.0283 0.0224 0.0175 0.0136 0.0104 0.0079 0.0060 0.0044
(x) 0.9772 0.9821 0.9861 0.9893 0.9918 0.9938 0.9953 0.9965 0.9974 0.9981 0.9987

EKIB-Entwurfsgrundlagen im Konstruktiven Ingenierbau Page 1

Problem 24:

a) Determine the probability density function for the bending moment in A,

i.e. specify the type of distribution and determine the basic describing
parameters.

Adding combination of two normal distributions. Please look at notes

named " linear combination of normal distributions".

M A  10  P1  15  P2

P1 and P2 are normal distribution, then M A is also normal distribution. Normal

distribution is specified with two characteristic parameters;
 Mean value M A
 Standard deviation M A

Mean value of M A ( M A )

M A  10  P1  15  P2  10  P1  15  P2  10  15  15  5  225kNm

Standard deviation of M A (  M )
A

M A  (10  P1  15  P2 )  10  P1  15  P2

    
    
2 2 2 2
M A   M2 A  10  P1  15  P2  100  P1  300  P1  P2  225  P2


 1 2 
 M2  100   F2  300  F1  F2  225   F2  100   F2  300     F   F  225   F2
A 1 1 2 2

 M2  5900  M A  76.81kNm
A

EKIB-Entwurfsgrundlagen im Konstruktiven Ingenierbau Page 2

b) Determine the safety index  and the failure probability assuming that
the load bearing capacity follows a normal distribution with a mean
value of 925 kNm and an sdev-value of 243.67 kNm.

R  925kNm  R  243.67kNm
E  M A  225kNm  E   M A  76.81kNm

Z  R  E  925  225  700kNm

 Z   R 2   E 2  243.67 2  76.812  225.49kNm
Z 700
   2.74
Z 225.49

 (2.7)  0.9965
 (2.74)  0.99686
 (2.8)  0.9974

Pf  (  )  1  (  )  1  (2.74)  1  0.99686  0.00314

EKIB-Entwurfsgrundlagen im Konstruktiven Ingenierbau Page 3