Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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IEEJ: August 2003
CNPC, in particular, accounts for almost 70%. 2. Demand for natural gas
Actually, their shares of production in 2002
were 68.9% for CNPC, 15.2% for Sinopec, and 2-1 National plan
11.4% for CNOOC.
The Energy Research Institute of China
CNPC and Sinopec own and operate mostly on predicted*1 in October 2002 that the primary
shore pipelines. Conversely, CNOOC owns and energy demand over the next 20 years would
operates virtually all off shore pipelines. Local increase at an annual rate of 3.2% (energy
delivery services are mainly provided by public elasticity 0.49)about half the economic
companies controlled by local governments growth rate projected by Chinese government
that traditionally delivered city gas (typically (7%). According to this projection, income per
coal gas). capita will grow fourfold, and total energy
demand will almost double in 20 years.
For demand side, natural gas consumption is Conversely, the predicted growth in demand
significantly less than other fossil fuels in for natural gas is an average of 12% a year, or
China. It is primarily used as a raw material about 1.7 times the economic growth rate
for chemical fertilizer and to operate oil and (energy elasticity 1.7). Thus, the share of
gas fields. Accordingly, most natural gas is natural gas in the primary energy will increase
consumed for production of fertilizer. Only a from 2.5% in 2000 to 12.5% in 2020. This
little over 10% of natural gas is consumed as a suggests that the use of natural gas will grow
fuel for such as cogeneration and residential at least three times as fast as that of other
use. As the natural gas market evolves in fossil fuels. As such, the China’s expectations
future, however, natural gas will primarily be for natural gas are very high. The major
used for electric power and residential use as driving forces from demand side is
an alternative to coal. environmental pressure and from supply side
are improvements of social infrastructure with
Consequently, the Chinese natural gas market economic growth, in the west in particular, and
is likely to undergo drastic change in the near stable energy supply.
future, exerting a significant impact on
neighboring countries.
Source: * China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum and Chemical Industry
Association
**China Statistical Yearbook 2002
__________________________
*1 Joint research conducted between the Institute of Energy Economics (of Japan) and Energy Research Institute
of China
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IEEJ: August 2003
Figure 2-1. Projected primary energy and natural gas demand in China
(by Energy Research Institute, China)
(KTOE)
10,000,000
US primary energy, past
(1980 to 1999)
China primary energy, elasticity = 0.47
projection (CERI: 2000 to 2020)
China primary energy,past elasticity = 0.49
(1980 to 1999)
1,000,000
elasticity = 0.49
Japan primary energy, past
(1980 to 1999)
elasticity = 0.86
100,000
Natural gas consumption in
China, projection by CERI
(2000 to 2020)
elasticity = 1.7
10,000
100 1,000 10,000
Heilongjiang
Dongbei Area
(Northeast Area)
Jilin
Huabei Area
Xinjiang Uigur Autononous Liaoning
Region
Inner Mongolian
Beijing
Autonomous Region
Xibei Area Tianjin
Hebei
(Northwest Area)
Ningxia Shangxi Shandong
Aut. Reg.
Qinghai
Gansu
Shanxi Henan Jiangsu
Tibet Autonomous Anhui
Region Shanghai
Hubei
Sichuan
Chongqing Zhejiang
Hunan Jiangxi
Fujian
Guizhou
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IEEJ: August 2003
Table 2-1. Social cost associated with the use of coal (environmental burden)
Environmental load associated with
the use of coal
Sector
$US/ yuan/
US$/ton
MMBtu 1,000kcal
Electricity 23 1.15 0.038
Consumer use 17 0.85 0.028
Heat supply 39 2.00 0.065
Industrial use 29 1.50 0.048
Total 24 1.20 0.040
Source: Based on Box 4.3, Clear Water, Blue Skies, World Bank
Figure 2-3 Competitive natural gas price curve by coal price and by load
(US$/MMBtu)
7
Coal $30/ton (consumption site)
5
Coal $15/ton (production site)
$4.36/MMBtu
4
2
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Load on Plant (%)
Source: Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, 2003
agreement had yet to be reached. For now, reach many major cities. However, should the
construction is proceeding by Chinese alone. open policy of accepting foreign capital fail, the
Ordos expects to supply gas to Shanghai as future development of the natural gas market
early as October 2003. When this project is could be undermined.
completed, gas from Tarim and Qaidam will
Junggar Basin
52.4 billion m3 Songliao Basin
Heilongjiag
Tarim Basin Songliao
60.3 billion m3
375.4 billion m3 Ordos Basin
231.1 billion m3 JILIN
Neimonggu (Inner
Junggar
Mongolia)
Erlian
Xinjiang Liaoning
Turpan-Hami
Beijing
Ordos
Tianjin
Bohai Bay Bohai Bay Basin
Hebei
Qaidam 144.4 billion m3
Tarim Gansu Shanxi
Ningxia Shandong
Tibet
Hubei
Jianghan Zhejiang Donghai (East
Sichuan Chongqing China Sea)
Jiangxi
Hunan
Sichuan
Remaining recoverable Fujian
Guizhou
natural gas reserves in Taiwan
3-2 Stable energy supply Therefore, the national policy placing top
priority on the development and exploration of
In the past, China was able to satisfy most domestic reserves and effective use of new gas
domestic energy demand with its own coal and reserves is becoming important amid concern
oil, but it became a net importer of oil to cover for stable energy supply.
shortages in 1993. Whereas the demand for oil
is growing as motorization develops along with There are limits to the natural gas reserves,
economic growth, domestic oil production is however, and sooner or later the demand for
gradually decreasing. Consequently, China is natural gas will exceed domestic production
forced to increase oil imports. China’s oil capacity. Moreover, if the Chinese yuan is
consumption in 2002 totaled 240 million tons appreciated in the near future, the cost
(while Japan’s was a little more than 260 advantage of domestic natural gas over
million tons), and oil accounted for about 30% imports may fall significantly.
of total fuel consumption. Half the oil was
imported from the Middle East. Oil imports are
expected to increase to 120 to 150 million tons
in 2010, and growing oil imports and increased
dependence on the Middle East have become
serious concern.
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IEEJ: August 2003
________________________
*4 International Energy Outlook 2002
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IEEJ: August 2003
250
ERI projection
(optimistic case)
200
IEEJ projection
(upper limit)
150
IEEJ projection
(pessimistic case)
100
LNG projection
50 Pipeline transport
20bcm
Domestic supply (estimate by IEEJ)
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Manzhouli
Songliao Bisin
75.4 billion m3
Daqing
Baikonguan
Heilongjian Yilan
Kelamayi
Daqing Oil Field Harbin
Central Asia Dzungaria Basin
Import 30 billion m3 25.3 billion m3 Changchun
Shihezi
Urumchi
Turfan Basin Mongol Jilin
Inner Mongolian Aut. Reg. Tiefa
25.6 billion m3 Xinmin Xinglongtai
Lunnan Shenyang Fushun
Shanshan Hami
Kuibage Liaoyang Liaoning
Kurla
Liuyuan Hebai Anshan
Tarim Basin 5∼
Kekeya 12 Huhehot
Beijing
Jixian
Dalian
515 billion m3 Dunhuang bil
li o llion
3
m
Tazhong nm 3.3 bi Tianjin
Bohai Bay Basin
3 Ordos Basin
Xinjiang Uigur Autononous Zhangye 408.8 billion m3 Yulin
Taiyuan Yongqing
Cangzhou Longkou
275.5 billion m3
Wushenqi Gudao Weihai
Region Sebei
Wuwei Yinchuan Shijiazhuang
Yandai
Gantang Jingbian Luoxiong
Shanxi Jinan Jingying
Tsaidam Basin Golmo Jiaozhou
Qingdao
147.2 billion m3 Xining Ningxia Aut. Reg. Puyang
Taian
Rizhao
Houma Shandong
Lanzhou
Hancheng Zhengzhou Lianyungang East China Sea Basin
Zhongyuan
Oil Field
JiangsuYancheng (84.2 billion m3) Confirmed Original Deposits
Qinghai Gansu Xl’an Luoyang
Huaibai
(2000)
Huainan
Henan Dingyuan Nantong
Nanjing
Qingbaijiang Shanxi Xinyang Shanghai Pinghu Gas Field
Tibet Autonomous Region Sichuang Hefei5 ∼10 Changzhou
Chengdou
Shehong Quxian Hubei billion m3
Daishan
Sichuan
Qianjiang Wuhan Anhui Hangzhou
Shaoxing
Chunxiao Gas Field
Zhongxian
Yuexi Ningbo
Sichuang Baisn Chongqing Jinhua Dasudao
702.5 billion m3 Chongqing Zhejiang
Qili Fujiamiao Nanchang
Lishui Gas Field
Changsha Wenzhou
Zunyi
Jiangxi
Hunan Fujian
Fuzhou 万
LNG, 2.6 million ton (2007)
Guizhou
Legends Guiyang Guilin Songyu
Dali Kunming
Panjiang Amoy
LNG receiving station
Chuxiong Shaoguan Taiwan
Guangdong
Coal gas Yunnan Guangxi Aut. Reg. Guangzhou Shanwei East China Sea
Shenzhen
Nanning Macao Chengtoujiao
Oil, gas well Jiangmen
Qinzhou Hongkong
Common cities
Jinghong Shiwandashan
Provincial capital Zhanjiang LNG, 3 million ton (2005)
5 million ton (2009)
Existing pipeline Haikou Southeast Basin
Pipeline to be constructed from 2001 to 2005 Dongfang Ledong
Bodeng (88.4 billion m3)
Pipeline to be constructed from 2006 to 2010 Yinggehai Sanya Hainan
Pipeline to be constructed from 2011 to 2020 Yinggehai Basin
160.6 billion m3 Yacheng Oil Field
Source: Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
South China Sea
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IEEJ: August 2003
4-2 Pipeline from Russia pipeline may lose its cost advantage over LNG.
As the Sakhalin-2 LNG Project moves toward
When the 20-billion m3 gap in supply and reality this year, South Korea's concerns
demand in China surfaces, the international continue to grow. They have reportedly agreed
pipeline from eastern Siberia will become to complete a feasibility study of the project by
realistic. This will happen by 2005 in the June 2003, but details remain unclear.
optimistic view, and by 2018 in the pessimistic
view. The timing will also likely be off by
several years, depending on the accuracy of
projected domestic supply. However, most 5. Policy of promoting the use of
experts do not expect that the gap in supply natural gas
and demand will be as large as China claims.
Thus, it may be realistic to consider a lapse of
5 years or more (onward) in the ERI projection 5-1 Price and taxation
of the time of initiating massive imports.
China controls the natural gas business under
Notably, the current domestic market for a national policy of “controlled distribution and
natural gas is still around 3 billion m3far controlled sales.” The cost of natural gas
smaller than the projections. The market consists of three parts: production cost,
system has yet to mature, and such an processing cost, and transportation cost. The
immature market is a major concern for government allows suppliers and sellers to
investors. To introduce foreign capital for mutually determine pipeline transport costs
constructing a pipeline, it is vital to establish through negotiations. Before China joined the
stable investment environments. WTO, the import tax on natural gas imported
by pipeline and tax on imported LNG were
Moreover, international complications may both 6%. China changed its policy after joining
affect market formation. According to the draft the WTO and the tax on pipeline natural gas is
of the Russia-China-Korea Project now under to be lifted. The pipeline companies benefit
discussionthe project of transporting natural from a system of reduced taxes with "2-year
gas of Kovikta20 to 25 billion m3 of a exemptions and 3-year reductions” (whereby
nominal capacity of 35 billion m3 will be sent to income tax is totally exempt for the initial two
China, with the rest going to South Korea. The years after turning a profit, then reduced at a
concept underlying this project was certain rate for the following three years), and
constructing the shortest, lowest-cost pipeline preferential rules under which import duty on
from the south coast of Lake Baikal to Beijing equipment and pipe materials are exempt.
via Mongolia and onward to Korea through the
pan Bo-Hai area.
5-2 Finance
As a player in an international power game,
Russia may claim a premium on the price of China relied on internal financing and foreign
natural gas sold to China to make the gas price capital to raise funds for major projects. In
as high as LNG. Russia may try to pad the recent years, however, it has introduced
regular market price as an added value to modern financing systems, such as mergers,
China’s energy security. In turn, as a Chinese partnerships, and corporate systems, given the
domestic issue, the pipeline has political prevailing open policy. In the West-East
reasons to avoid Mongolia (with a route from Pipeline Project, China launched a
Manzhauli in northeast Nei Mongol to Beijing multi-source funding policy, allowing foreign
via three northeast provinces being strongly companies to hold shares of the project and
recommended). China fears that Nei Mongol jointly construct urban natural-gas networks
will not accept that only Mongolia will get as a downstream business. The project cost
transit benefit from providing land for a totals 120 billion yuan, and 40 billion yuan will
pipeline, while Nei Mongol of the same ethnic be needed to construct the 4,000 km pipeline.
group of Mongolia but a part of China will only Former President Zhu Rongji said that China
be passed without benefit. guarantees that the investment will pay off by
virtue of the preferential policy, and that the
For South Korea, those challenges will drive pipeline will be completed in three years.*5
up product cost and dilute the advantages of
investment because natural gas transported by
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IEEJ: August 2003
Source: ERI
____________________
*5 Source: Japan-China Energy Forum
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