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T I M E S
A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION
VOL XXVII No.12 Monday, 22 – 28 January 2018 Pgs.21 Rs.20

More volatility ahead Next MT issue on 26th January 2018


By Sanjay R Bhatia In view of the market holiday on Friday, 26 January
The markets continued to soar and record fresh historic highs 2018, on account of Republic Day, the next issue
amidst high volatility. The Nifty tested our resistance level of no.13 dated 29 January - 4 February 2018, will go to
10875 but failed to close above it. Intermediate bouts of profit- print on Thursday, 25 January and will be released
booking and selling pressure were witnessed at the higher on Friday, 26 January 2018, in Mumbai.
levels regularly.
The FIIs turned big buyers during the week and remained net buyers in the cash and derivatives segment. The DIs,
however, were seen booking profits and remained net sellers during the week. The breadth of the market remained
negative amidst low volumes and buying support in mainline stocks. Crude oil prices softened a little due to a bounce-
back in US production, which outweighed the declines in crude inventories. The US markets continued to move higher.
On the domestic front, the earnings season has been a mixed bag. The news flow on the forthcoming budget continued to
add volatility to the markets.
Technically, the prevailing positive technical conditions Believe it or not!
helped the markets touch and close at fresh historic highs.  Dishman Carbogen Amcis recommended at
The MACD, Stochastic, RSI and KST are all placed above their Rs.334.40 in SW last week, hit a high of Rs.378
respective averages on the daily and weekly charts. fetching 13% returns in just 1 week!
Moreover, the Nifty is placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day
SMA and 200-day SMA. The Nifty’s 50-day SMA is placed  Som Distilleries & Breweries recommended at
above its 100-day and 200-day SMA, its 100-day SMA is Rs.255.35 in EE last week, hit a high of Rs.284.85
placed above its 200-day SMA indicating a ‘golden cross’ fetching 12% returns in just 1 week!
breakout. These positive technical conditions could lead to  Flex Foods recommended at Rs.129.15 in TF on
regular buying support. 8 January 2018, hit a high of Rs.169.15 fetching
The prevailing negative technical conditions, however, still 31% returns in just 2 weeks!
hold good and are likely to weigh on the market sentiment at  Hind Aluminium Industries recommended at
the higher levels. The RSI and Stochastic are placed in the
Rs.138.15 in TT on 8 January 2018, hit a high of
overbought zone on the daily and weekly charts, which could Rs.170 fetching 23% returns in just 2 weeks!
lead to regular bouts of profit-booking and selling pressure,
especially at the higher levels.  Maan Aluminium recommended at Rs.141 in
The +DI is placed above the -DI line and the ADX line. Further, TT on 1 January 2018, hit a high of Rs.183.65
it is placed above the 31 level, which indicates that the buyers fetching 30% returns in just 3 weeks!
are gaining strength. However, the ADX line continues to (EE – Expert Eye; SW – Stock Watch;
languish below 20, which indicates that the current trend TF – Techno Funda; TT – Tower Talk)
lacks strength and the markets are likely to remain volatile This happens only in Money Times!
and choppy. th Now in its 27 Year

A Time Communications Publication 1


The market sentiment remains cautiously positive. The Nifty
continued to touch fresh historic highs. It is important for
follow-up buying support to materialize at the higher levels
for the Nifty to sustain above the 10875 level and to move
higher to test the magical 11000 level. 10875 is now an
important support level. Intermediate bouts of profit-
booking and selling pressure are likely to be witnessed at the
higher levels due to overbought conditions and F&O expiry
this week, which will fuel volatility.
In the meanwhile, the markets will take cues from the
earnings season, news flow on the budget, global markets,
Dollar-Rupee exchange rate and crude oil prices.
Technically, the Sensex faces resistance at the 35542, 36000
and 36300 levels and seeks support at the 34592, 34000, 33750, 33300, 33000, 32325 and 32000 levels. The resistance
levels for the Nifty are placed at 10725, 10850 and 10875 while its support levels are placed at 10650, 10585, 10495,
10400, 10325, 10270 and 10120.

BAZAR.COM

Soch Kar, Samajh Kar, Invest kar Now follow us on Instagram, Facebook &
What an apt phrase used by the NSE - soch kar, samajh kar, invest Twitter at moneytimes_1991 on a daily basis to
kar. This rhyming jibe is perfect in the current market conditions. get a view of the stock market and the
The Sensex scaled 35000 while the Nifty scaled 10800 with ease in happenings which many may not be aware of.
the wake of a difficult budget is no mean an achievement. When
stocks remain on a fast track despite the bumps ahead is when one needs to remain alert and cautious.
The excitement and jubilation on scaling new peaks were palpable on Dalal Street. This coming in tune with the
steadiness in Europe, USA and other Asian countries make India an apple of every eye. The reasons for such a rally are
not far-fetched. Scaling down of additional borrowing by 60% from Rs.50000 crore to Rs.20000 crore, rationalization of
GST rates and a mind to ease the return filing process, easing of crude oil prices from the recent highs, appreciation of
the INR, setting new FDI norms especially in the retail and banking segments set the ball rolling.
Such kind of blitzkrieg in the markets was last seen in the middle of 2014 when the BJP won a simple majority and the
Sensex gained a neat 1,000 points (23K to 24K) in just four trading sessions, another 1,000 points (24K to 25K) in 14
sessions and another 1,000 points (25K to 26K) in 22 sessions. No wonder, the rise from 34K to 35K was covered in 16
sessions against all odds and
valuation concerns. The new ratnas at Panchratna!
A super charged liquidity cycle, nd
After the sad demise of Mr. G. S. Roongta on 2 July 2017, we were at a loss to
driven by ~Rs.8500 crore of
replace our crown jewel. But so good is our team of analysts that their first
regular monthly equity inflows, st
Panchratna issue of 1 October has already clocked in results even before the
aids the Sensex and the Nifty to
quarter is over. Given below is their maiden score and we are sure this team will
reach new peaks. Such a rally
improve as we go along.
warrants an exercise of caution,
which was also indicated by the Sr. Date Scrip Name Recom. Highest %
mixed moves on Thursday when No. Rate (Rs.) since (Rs.) Gain
intra-day highs proved to be very 1 October Williamson Magor & Company 74.5 108.3 45
strong resistance levels with a 2017 Goldiam International 77.7 93 20
muted rise of 178 points in the PTC India Financial Services 37.05 44.1 19
Sensex at 35260 and 28 points in Sintex Plastics Technology 90.95 100 10
the Nifty at 10817, which was Firstsource Solutions 41.7 45.6 9
th
much lower that the day’s high. 16 Edition of ‘Panchratna’ released on 1 January 2018
The noteworthy contrast was
So hurry up and book your copy now!
visible in the 418-point fall in the
Subscription Rate: Rs.2500 per quarter; Rs.4000 for two quarters; Rs.7000 per annum.
Nifty Mid-Cap index at 21090 on
You can contact us on 022-22616970, 22654805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com
the same day.

A Time Communications Publication 2


The advances to decline ratio was at 342:1778 on the NSE
and 781:2309 on the BSE. Such an adverse ratio despite Winners 2018 begin to perform…
the key benchmarks soaring to new highs reflects the
investor’s attitude of soch kar, samajh kar….
3rd week score
The budget is hardy eight sessions away and the time Out of the 32 stocks identified for 2018, 14 stocks recorded
ripens for all kinds of expectations from the FM. All eyes gains in the third week of 2018.
are on the balancing act by FM in raising funds for the 1 stock gained 20%
rural and higher infrastructure outlay, which may 3 stocks gained 10%
generate robust spending, increase jobs and get the little 5 stocks gained 5%
‘achche din’ feel to rural India. Sounds music to the ears 5 stocks are performing positive
but the raising of such finances could be very punitive to 18 stock have dipped marginally allowing opportunity for
that stratum of the society and industry which needs to accumulation
fill the government’s coffers. Rationalization of direct tax Broad Market Correction Offer Opportunity for
structure with an eye to increase the number of assessees Accumulation
rule out liberal threshold limits. Exemptions are plenty in Get Yearly and Quarterly Levels for accumulation and
number yet a couple of more to generate an infra fund or further update on Quarterly levels every quarter
alike cannot be ruled out. There are 49 more weeks to go!
For details of Winners 2018, please refer to ad on page no.5
Equities and the robust rise in stock prices have been in
focus amidst the tough days in other segments of the economy. Although equity indicator remains the barometer, this
time the mercury is more influenced by the liquidity of both FIIs and DIIs than any kind of real growth in the economy.
The healing process of demonetisation and a rapid GST implementation may have begun as reflected in the figures of
FMCG and auto sales. Hindustan Unilever posted double-digit growth in revenue with 28% jump in PAT after fourteen
quarters. It boosted the sentiment at the FMCG counters and an impromptu rise was seen in the shares of Dabur,
Britannia Industries, Godrej Consumer Products, Marico, etc. Auto stocks like Maruti Suzuki, Ashok Leyland, Bajaj Auto,
Mahindra & Mahindra, Hero MotoCorp and Escorts are also riding on the wave of the rising demand.
In the coming days, investors should explore select segments (infrastructure, coal, cement, iron, steel, aluminum, agri-
based and FMCG) and select corporates from those segments. It may be prudent to shift from mid-caps and small-caps,
which are very vulnerable, to large-caps. This shift is already going on, which was indicated by Thursday’s fall in the
Nifty Mid-Cap index.
As far as LTCG (long term capital gain) is concerned, a slight change in the minimum holding period and introduction of
low tax rate may give an initial blow to stock prices but the huge liquidity available with the investible funds will heal
those scars, if any. To most of us, the budget remains in our minds for the first 24 or 48 hours and life tends to return
back to normalcy soon after. Remember that no budget till date has deflated growth tyres and the Sensex touching 35K
or Nifty inching towards the 11K mark proves that. So, ‘soch kar, samajh kar, invest kar!’

TRADING ON TECHNICALS

Rise to continue with volatility


By Hitendra Vasudeo
Sensex Daily Trend DRV Weekly Trend WRV Monthly Trend MRV
Last Close 35511 Up 34664 Up 32900 Up 30871
Last week, the Sensex opened at 34687.21, which was also the low registered for the week. It moved to a high of
35542.17 before it closed the week at 35511.57 and thereby showed a net rise of 919 points on a week-to-week basis.
Last week was a follow-up rise against the overall bearish sentiment that sneaked on the back of the correction
witnessed in mid-caps and small-caps.
Daily Chart
The Sensex showed strength in comparison to the movement of the Nifty.
Support on the daily chart is at the gap created on Thursday and the gap range is 35166-35081.
A fall and close below 35081 can mark a reversal and swing top. This could put a pause to the Sensex rise but the current
trend is up based on DRV-34664.
The upper channel line on the daily chart was tested. The Andrew Pitchfork Mean Channel Line was tested. The Andrew
Pitchfork Upper Line is significantly higher and therefore sustaining immediately at the current levels.

A Time Communications Publication 3


The 3 points for Fibonacci Projection: 31081, 33865 and
32595, resulted in 100% level at 35382. This has
coincided with the Parallel Channel and Andrew Pitchfork
Mean Line.
The close is above these points and the gap may try to
protect the fall or could mark a swing top reversal for a
minor correction to form a higher bottom and climb back
to the top.
The 161.8% projection is at 37000, which is matching the
Andrew Pitchfork Upper Channel Line. The equidistant
channel is way up to be mentioned now.
The DRV of 34664 though laggard helps to filter the noise.
Leverage trading positions always have difficulty in
holding positions on a minor correction. This is the issue being faced by traders in the mid-cap and small-cap segments
currently. A minor correction can only defocus the traders and put a question mark against the rallies.
The Sensex underperformed when broad market indices were performing but once the near-term momentum
completely paused for mid-caps/small-caps, the Sensex took over for a strong rise last week in spite of the intra-day
volatility last week.
We defined the bull market in last week’s column and traders/investors need to focus and rely on the trends. If the
closing is above 21 EMA and 21 EMA >34 EMA >55 EMA >89 EMA, then the bull market is in place. Define the bull
market in all time frames: intra-day 5 min, intra-day 60 min, daily, weekly, monthly and so on. This helps in identifying
strong stocks and to remain focused irrespective of the fluctuation and sentiment disturbances.
Weekly Chart
Weekly support will be at 35246-34951-34592. The higher range for the week can be 35806-36661.
The weekly chart Fibonacci Projection 3 points i.e. 25753, 32672 and 31081 are considered and 100% projection is
placed at 38000.
The Sensex appears to have the potential to rise significantly higher. How the movement pans out with corrections and
fluctuations is to be seen.
Yearly Chart
The yearly table below is for reference and investors are requested to take note of the levels as we may not publish this
data in the next edition. The Sensex is at 35511 and Yearly Level 3 is 36648. The Sensex is now in a striking distance to
hit the Yearly Level 3. Last year’s Yearly Level 4 was around 36000, which was missed. This year’s Yearly Level 3-36648
should be attained in due course of time with volatility.
Security Name Dec-17 L1 L2 CP L3 L4
Nifty 50 10531 6507 8926 9739 11344 13763
Nifty Bank 25539 12140 20262 23108 28385 36508
S&P BSE Sensex 34057 21266 28957 31547 36648 44338
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 17822 8095 13937 15894 19779 25622
S&P BSE Small-Cap 19231 7268 14452 16857 21636 28820
Trend based on Rate of Change (RoC)
Daily chart:
1-Day trend - Up
3-Day trend - Up
8-Day trend - Up
Weekly chart:
1-Week trend - Up
3-Week trend - Up
8-Week trend - Up

A Time Communications Publication 4


Monthly chart:
1-Month trend - Up Released on 1st January 2018…
3-Month trend - Up Winners of 2018
8-Month trend - Up 31 stocks set to perform with quarterly review:
Quarterly chart: Here is the Performance Review of ‘Winners of 2017’
1-Quarter trend - Up Top performers of Winners of 2017
Sr. Name Closing on Closing on % Gain on High in % Gains
3-Quarter trend - Up No 30/12/16 22/12/17 Closing 2017 on
8-Quarter trend - Up 22/12/17 High 2017
1 Rain Industries 54.90 360.20 556.10 402.65 633.42
Yearly chart:
2 Panama Petrochem 59.03 259.50 339.61 264.00 347.23
1-Year trend - Up 3 KEC International 140.45 375.90 167.64 391.45 178.71
3-Year trend - Up 4 Remsons Industries 50.50 122.20 141.98 146.80 190.69
5 GNFC 213.60 480.30 124.86 548.50 156.79
8-Year trend - Up
6 Archidply Industries 58.20 120.65 107.30 124.00 113.06
BSE Mid-Cap Index 7 Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals 71.05 146.50 106.19 157.50 121.67
The BSE Mid-Cap 8 Sundram Fasteners 290.50 583.00 100.69 598.00 105.85
index shows a fall 9 KNR Constructions 172.75 308.00 78.29 314.25 81.91
10 Solar Industries India 674.90 1173.00 73.80 1272.80 88.59
with a bearish
11 Asian Hotels (North) 102.35 176.00 71.96 177.95 73.86
candle and evening
12 Steel Strips Wheels 617.70 1050.40 70.05 1100.95 78.23
doji star after testing 13 NBCC (India) 159.38 254.00 59.37 291.30 82.77
the upper channel 14 Dwarikesh Sugar Industries 32.06 47.75 48.92 80.40 150.78
line and Fibonacci 15 HPCL 294.35 429.25 45.83 492.80 67.42
projection level. The 16 Mukand 62.60 88.95 42.09 109.35 74.68
overall trend is up 17 Tube Investments of India 584.80 793.20 35.64 862.00 47.40
and whenever 18 RPP Infra Projects 231.45 311.80 34.72 362.75 56.73
corrections take 19 Procter & Gamble 7084.05 9385.00 32.48 9900.00 39.75
place, they tend to 20 Mangalore Refinery & Petro 98.20 128.45 30.80 146.70 49.39
hit the DRV, which is 21 Jain Irrigation Systems 58.40 75.40 29.11 79.25 35.70
at 16910 from the 22 Bharat Petroleum Corporation 423.88 536.50 26.57 551.55 30.12
23 National Aluminium Company 65.30 82.15 25.80 97.60 49.46
current level of
24 Sutlej Textiles & Industries 80.19 97.40 21.47 98.80 23.22
17766.
25 Ccl Products (India) 265.45 300.75 13.30 372.00 40.14
Resistance during 26 Balrampur Chini Mills 125.25 139.00 10.98 182.50 45.71
the week will be at 27 Zydus Wellness 866.15 951.10 9.81 988.00 14.07
17845-18176- 28 NTPC 164.75 179.95 9.23 188.00 14.11
18918. 29 RPG Life Sciences 480.25 492.00 2.45 536.20 11.65
30 J B Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals 351.30 318.40 -9.37 367.95 4.74
Higher range may
31 Electrotherm (India) 197.55 176.95 -10.43 308.00 55.91
attract profit-
booking pressure on Most of the gains of 2017 were lost in the last quarter due to market conditions.
The average gains are now 5.6% from an average of 29.3% at the highest
mid-cap stocks. The
Rain Industries Ltd stands out with 633.42% gain
overall trend
remains firm For just Rs.6000, book your copy of the 13th edition and welcome the New Year in
irrespective of the company of ‘Winners of 2018’!
minor corrections.
For subscription details contact us on 022-22616970 or email us at moneytimes.support@gmail.com
Leveraged investors
may face issues due
to corrections in the near-to-short term.
An upside momentum will continue on a breakout and close above 18500.
Weekly chart:
1-Week trend - Down
3-Week trend - Down
8-Week trend - Up
The ROC Trend for the BSE Mid-Cap index turns down for 1 and 3 Weeks indicating a swing top for the time being.

A Time Communications Publication 5


BSE Small-Cap Index
1-Week trend - Down
3-Week trend - Down
8-Week trend - Up
A swing top is in place as a bearish candle was tested after testing the upper channel lines. A further rise is above 20184.
Strategy for the week
Traders holding long positions on the Sensex and index-related stocks may look at 34590 as a stop loss. The rise last
week was large and therefore, an intra-week correction to 35246 or below is likely. Accumulate at 35246-34951 with a
stop loss of 34590. The higher range of 35806-36661 can be used to book trading profits. Overall, the market is likely to
remain bullish irrespective of minor corrections.

WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS


Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy with whatever low
registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to Level 3 or above then look to book profits as
the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on
Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Up Trend.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above

Weekly Up
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Weak Demand Demand Supply Supply
below point point point point
RADICO KHAITAN 364.65 310 326.9 347.8 385.5 444.1 71.9 323 22-12-17
NIIT TECHONOLOGIES 728 682.7 695.8 714.8 747 798.2 70.2 686 22-12-17
BIOCON 569.85 525.7 538.6 556.9 588.2 637.9 65.9 547 03-11-17
MINDTREE 701.70 616 643.1 674.6 733.3 823.5 65.9 636.5 10-11-17
POLARIS CONSULTING &
SERVICES 411.40 388 391.3 408.1 428.3 465.3 65.2 396.8 22-12-17

*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen. Relative Strength (RS) is statistical
indicator. Weekly Reversal is the value of the average.

WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS


Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell with whatever high
registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to Level 2 or below then look to cover short
positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Down Trend to Up Trend.
Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Down Trend.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above

Weekly Down
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Demand Demand Supply Supply Strong
point point point point above
MCX 837.10 679.7 796.3 872 912.8 947.8 30.01 902.55 19-01-18
BANK OF MAHARASHTRA 21.20 18.7 20.5 21.6 22.3 22.8 33.90 22.54 19-01-18
BHARTI INFRATEL 346.40 292.4 331.2 354.7 369.9 378.2 38.39 367.60 19-01-18
TATA COMMUNICATIONS 634 558 613 647 668 681 38.96 665.75 22-12-17
D B CORP 353.10 289.2 333.9 359.5 378.7 385 39.46 360.34 19-01-18

*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen.

A Time Communications Publication 6


EXIT LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close Supply Point Supply Point Supply Point Strong Above Demand Point Monthly RS

PETRONET LNG 237.05 242.19 245.40 248.61 259 215 41


BAJAJ FINSERV 4968.70 5016.15 5071.50 5126.85 5306.05 4547.1 42.7
SPICE JET 121.75 129.91 133.90 137.89 150.80 96.1 43.7
VINATI ORGANICS 965 966.74 975 983.26 1010 896.7 44.6

BUY LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close Demand point Demand point Demand Point Weak below Supply Point Monthly RS

JUBILANT FOODWORKS 2091.55 1974.32 1930.97 1887.63 1747.30 2341.7 72.17


ALEMBIC 63.35 61.32 60.33 59.33 56.10 69.8 66.72
ICICI BANK 353.55 336.95 331.38 325.80 307.75 384.2 66.18
WELSPUN CORP 189.80 171.91 164.85 157.79 134.95 231.7 65.77

PUNTER PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target whichever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery based trade for a possible time frame
of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above, RS- Strength

Weak RS-
Scrip BSE Code Last Close Demand Point Trigger Supply point Supply point
below Strength
- - - - - - - - -

TOWER TALK
 RBI has raised FPI investment limit in Granules India to 49% from 24% earlier. A QIP at high rates is on the cards.
Buy.
 Accelya Kale Solutions is reportedly on a financial rampage and is likely to have an excellent year ahead. A good
buy.
 The government is mulling to allow 100% FDI in banking. Efficient banks like HDFC Bank, Karnataka Bank,
IndusInd Bank, Lakshmi Vilas Bank and South Indian Bank are good investment bets for the long-term.
 Although Hindustan Zinc reported 4% lower PAT in Q3, rising volumes and rising commodity prices suggest better
times ahead. Buy.
 Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances plans to launch several products. Its working is also excellent. Buy.
 Tech Mahindra has partnered with Israel-based privacy research and development firm to develop a global
software privacy ecosystem. A positive for the company.
 ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company posted decent results for Q3 and is expected to continue its march
forward. Buy.
 The recent dip in the share price of Himadri Speciality Chemical provides an opportunity to accumulate. Speciality
based carbon black is fetching higher selling prices. The stock can appreciate by ~40% within a few months.
 Aarti Drugs is expected to increase its export to Asian countries, Latin America, Europe and Africa. With anticipated
CAGR of ~16% in the next few years, this stock is a good buy.
 FMGC giant Hindustan Unilever reported 28% higher PAT at Rs.1326 crore on account of improving consumption
pattern. Rural demand is also rising. An excellent long-term buy.
 Ace investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has increased his stake in Lupin. There may be some news in this counter which
other investors do not seem to know. Buy.
 State Bank of India plans to raise Rs.20000 crore via long-term bonds from domestic as well as international
markets for financing affordable housing and infrastructure projects. This big step will boost the bank’s
performance. Buy.

A Time Communications Publication 7


 The promoters of Kiri Industries have increased their stake by ~5%. Its current working is also excellent. Buy
immediately for a four-figure target.
 HDFC Mutual Fund is aggressively buying stake in Singapore-based Kridhan Infra. A potential multibagger.
 India’s leading entertainment company, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, reported 33% higher PAT on the back of
higher advertisement revenue. Buy.
 Yes Bank’s lower NPAs, improved CASA ratio and sustained performance in Q3, makes it an attractive buy even at
the current level.
 Bharti Airtel reported 39% lower PAT for Q3 due to IUC cut and Jio pressure. Its profitability is likely to dampen for
some time. Sell.
 Biocon has teamed up with Sandoz (the generic drug division of Novartis) to make affordable bio similar for
immunology and oncology. An excellent long-term buy.
 NMDC plans to raise iron ore prices due to the shutdown of some mines in Odisha. Reports suggest that NMDC’s
selling price is ~20% lower than international rates. A good buy.
 In the forthcoming budget, the government is likely to offer incentives to attract foreign tourists. Buy India Tourism
Development Corporation and Thomas Cook for decent gains.
 Highway developer Dilip Buildcon has
obtained a road project worth Rs.730 crore. Profitrak Weekly
The company is going full throttle. Buy for
25% returns within 3 months. A complete guide for Trading and Investments based on Technicals
 A drop in GST rates for fertilisers will boost
Check the sample file before subscribing…
the prospects of Gujarat State Fertilizers
A technical product that features P/E Based Level - Working as
& Chemicals (GSFC) and Gujarat
Support and Resistance
Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals
(GNFC). Buy. What you Get?
 Cosmo Films is likely to notch an EPS of 1) Weekly Market Outlook of -
Rs.45 in FY19 and Rs.54 in FY20. The stock  Sensex
is available cheap at a forward P/E of 8x  Nifty
and 6.8x on FY19E and FY20E earnings  Bank Nifty Features
respectively. 2) Sectoral Review
 Outperforming, Market Performing and Under
 Avonmore Capital & Management
Performing
Services is expected to notch an EPS of
 Stand Alone Weekly Signal for Up Trend and Down Trend
over Rs.12 in FY18. The stock is available
 Stock Wise New Addition and Follow Up Chart Comments
cheap.  Selection Process Based on Multi Time Frame Trend and
 Deep Industries is expected to notch an RS
EPS of Rs.28-30 in FY18. The stock is 3) Multi Time Frame Yearly Chart
poised to touch Rs.350.  Stock Filtration
 Securities & Intelligent Services (SIS) is  One Annual In Jan-Dec
expected to announce a blockbuster  From March running Yearly Filtration- March to March
performance in Q3FY18. Investors have 4) Sectoral View of Strong/Weak/Market Performer indices
5) Weekly Trading Signals
built huge positions in this counter with a
6) Stock Views and Updates every week
price target of Rs.1500 in the near future.
7) Winners for trading and investing for medium-to-long-term
 Meghmani Organics may cross Rs.150 till March 2018
backed by its expansion plans. It is likely to 8) Winners of 2017 with fresh Weekly Signals on the same
post an EPS of Rs.8 in FY18 an Rs.11 in
FY19. The counter has witnessed heavy On Subscription
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 An Ahmedabad-based analyst recommends Skype or Team Viewer.
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Spinners, Morepen Laboratories, Phyto From 2018 Product Price will be Rs.24000/- for 1-Year
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A Time Communications Publication 8


Infotech appreciated 189% from Rs.54.85 in September 2017 to Rs.158.50 last week; and Sakthi Finance
appreciated 27% from Rs.37.15 to Rs.47.25 in just three weeks!
 The latest grey market premium for Apollo Microsystems IPO is Rs.185-195; Newgen Software Technologies IPO
is Rs.17-19; and Amber Enterprises IPO is Rs.485-495.

BEST BET

Power Finance Corporation Ltd


(BSE Code: 532810) (CMP: Rs.120.35) (FV: Rs.10)
By Bikshapathi Thota
Incorporated in July 1986, New Delhi-based Power Finance Corporation Ltd (PFC) is a Schedule-A Navratna CPSE under
the administrative control of the Ministry of Power (MOP). It is a leading Non-Banking Financial Corporation (NBFC) and
the largest Infrastructure Finance Company in the country in terms of net worth. Its regional offices are located in
Mumbai and Chennai.
PFC is a lead financier in the Indian power sector. As per DPE Survey (March 2017), it was the 7th highest profit-making
PSU among 320 PSUs in FY16. During FY17, its annual loan sanctions crossed Rs.100000 crore for the first time (up 55%
YoY). Annual disbursements grew 35% to Rs.62798 crore (the highest growth in a decade). Loan Assets, too, grew
despite prepayments of Rs.28400 crore under Ujwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana (UDAY). Borrowings during the year
were Rs.66800 crore at a competitive marginal cost of 7.47% (below Reuter’s benchmark rates). It reported PAT of
Rs.2126 crore.
PAT and other financial parameters for FY17 were adversely impacted on account of transition from MOP approved
norms to RBI approved restructuring norms retrospectively. As a result, loans worth Rs.23309 crore were downgraded
to NPAs while loans worth Rs.35995 crore were downgraded to Restructured Assets. Thus, the total impacted loans
were Rs.59304 crore. All these assets which were downgraded are generation projects and are 100% government-
owned companies and all these companies have demonstrated 100% recovery rate in FY17. None of these borrower
accounts have ever been declared NPAs prior to this year. Hence, the management does not see any stress in these loan
assets. Out of the downgraded assets, ~80% of the recognized NPAs and 58% of the Restructured Assets are likely to get
an upgrade in FY18 and FY19 respectively. Out of Rs.23309 crore, NPAs of ~Rs.11000 crore have already got an upgrade
w.e.f. 15 July 2017. After considering these factors, domestic as well as international credit rating agencies have retained
PFC’s credit ratings of AAA and at par with sovereign rating.
Strengths:
 A dominant player with ~20% market share
 Designated as a ‘Nodal Agency’ for the development of Integrated Power Development Scheme (IPDS), Ultra Mega
Power Projects (UMPPs) and ‘Bid Process Coordinator’ for Independent Transmission Projects (ITPs)
 ISO 9001:2015 certified
 A consistently profit-making and dividend-paying company
 Strong asset quality reflected in low NPAs
 Lowest administrative cost in the industry
 Consultancy and Advisory services in strategic, financial, regulatory and capacity building skills under one umbrella
Industry Overview: India has turned around from a net importer of electricity to a net exporter. It exports ~6,444 mn
units to Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar. The overall generation has grown 5.83% from 1,174 BU during FY16 to 1,242
BU during FY17. The total capacity addition in the 12th Five-Year Plan was 99,210 MW against a target of 88,537 MW.
India’s installed capacity was 3.26 GW as at 31 March 2017, with the private sector contributing ~44%.
Coal availability has improved significantly over the past
one year with abundant domestic coal production by Coal Free 2-day trial of Live Market Calls
India (CIL). In order to cut down the use of imported coal A running commentary of intra-day trading
and to ensure adequate supply of fuel to power plants, the recommendations with buy/sell levels, targets, stop loss
government has launched a scheme ‘Shakti’. The scheme on your mobile every trading day of the moth along with
was envisaged to make optimal allocation of natural pre-market notes via email for Rs.4000 per month.
resources across power units. According to CRISIL, Contact Money Times on 022-22616970 or
domestic non-coking coal supply to the power sector is moneytimes.support@gmail.com to register for a free trial.

A Time Communications Publication 9


expected to grow at 8-9% CAGR to 728 MMT over the next 5 years.
The government plans to launch a proactive hydro power policy to push stalled hydro projects and explore the
possibility of extending benefits for hydro projects up to 100 MW (existing 25 MW) as available to renewable projects
like wind and solar projects. India’s inter-regional power transmission capacity stands at 75 GW as at March 2017.
Strengthening and expanding the regional and intra-state grids along with improved rural electrification is expected to
lower power purchase costs by making available surplus power at low rates, which will also benefit power generators.
Distribution is a critical link in the power sector value chain. Keeping in view the weak financial position of distribution
companies, the government launched UDAY, which aims to improve the financial health of DISCOMS. The savings accrued
to DISCOMs on account of interest benefits due to takeover and restructuring of loans worked out to ~Rs.12000 crore in
December 2016. Further, the ACS-ARR gap is expected to narrow down significantly by 2020-21 with the implementation
of UDAY. In fact, this gap has already reduced from 59 paisa per unit in FY16 to ~45 paisa per unit in FY17 (December
2016). In addition, the government launched two distribution schemes, namely, IPDS (for urban areas) and DDUGJY
(Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojana) (for rural areas) with total estimated outlay of Rs.1.41 lakh crore. These
schemes aim to boost the distribution sector across the country.
Conclusion: If the management’s optimism about the company’s
future pans out, the stock could see significant delta on average Financials: (Rs. in crore)
book value (AVB). Strong pipeline in sanctions provides comfort Particulars FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
on loan growth visibility. However, we will also monitor NIM, as Revenue 27780 27289 28184 32435
the loan mix is skewing away from high-yielding generation PBDT 9066 5115 8342 10050
loans. At the CMP of Rs.120.35, the stock trades attractively at Net Profit 6184 2236 5830 6590
0.8x FY18E P/ABV. We have a Buy on this stock with a price EPS (Rs.) 23.4 8.5 22 25
target of Rs.180 (1.2x FY19 ABV and 7x to FY19E earnings). Dividend (Rs.) 6 5 6 7

STOCK WATCH
By Amit Kumar Gupta

KEI Industries Ltd


(BSE Code: 517569) (CMP: Rs.391.70) (FV: Rs.2) (TGT: Rs.460+)
Incorporated in 1968, New Delhi based KEI Industries Ltd (KEI) manufactures and supplies power and industrial cables.
It operates through the following segments - Cables, Stainless Steel Wire and Turnkey Projects. It offers extra high
voltage (EHV) cables; high and medium voltage cables; high tension and low tension cables; control and instrumentation
cables; speciality cables; flexible and house wires; submersible cables; marine and offshore cables; solar cables;
thermocouple extension/compensating cables; PVC/poly wrapped winding wires; stainless steel wires comprising
welding, hard and fine stainless steel, cold heading and general purpose wires; and winding wires. It also provides
rubber cables including flexible trailing, mining, thermal power and steel plant, wind energy, fire survival, ship wiring,
offshore and onshore, shore supply and generator, high temperature, pump, railway and battery cables as well as panel
wiring, fire wires, motor coil leads and low temperature installations. In addition, it offers integrated design,
engineering, material procurement, field servicing, construction and project management services for project
management and control, transmission systems, power generation projects, substations, cable solutions, overhead
transmission lines and infrastructure and civil works. Its products are used in power, oil refineries, railways,
automobiles, cement, steel, fertilizers, textile and real estate sectors.
We expect retail segment revenue CAGR of 25% over FY17-20E to Rs.16 bn. Contribution from the segment is expected
to increase from 30% in FY17 to ~36% by FY20 (management guidance is 40%). We expect HW (house wires) revenue
CAGR of 20% over FY17-20E to Rs.7.4 bn. The management plans to expand its dealer network by 10-15% every year
from 1,274 dealers in Q2FY18 to 1,500 by end of FY18.
KEI aims to strengthen its high-margin EHV segment (15% margin) with the installation of 400 kV production line in
FY17. We expect EHV cables revenue to grow at 53% CAGR over FY17-20E to ~Rs.3.6 bn. Its EPC order book has grown
significantly from ~Rs.4 bn in FY14 to ~Rs.20 bn in FY17. We expect EPC revenue CAGR of 28% over FY17-20E, due to
the management's focus on order execution.
Over FY12-17, KEI's Revenue/ EBITDA/ PAT grew at a CAGR of 9.2%/ 12.8%/ 32.3% to Rs.26.7 bn/ Rs.2.7 bn/ Rs.0.9 bn
respectively, with EBITDA margin expansion of ~155 bps to 10.3%. We expect margins to improve further by ~75 bps to
11% over FY17-20E on the back of higher contribution from Retail and EHV segments and better execution in the EPC

A Time Communications Publication 10


business. Going ahead, we expect Revenue/ EBITDA/ PAT CAGR of 18.7%/ 21.6%/ 33% to Rs.44.6 bn/ Rs.4.9 bn/
Rs.2.3bn respectively over FY17-20E. RoE/ ROCE are expected to improve to 26.5%/ 20.5% by FY20 from 23.5%/
18.5% in FY17.
Technical Outlook: The KEI stock looks very good on the daily chart for medium-term investment. It has formed a
saucer pattern on the daily chart and a breakout with good volumes can push the stock to higher levels. The stock trades
above all important 200 DMA levels on the daily chart.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.391.70 and on dips to Rs.351 for medium-to-long-term investment and a possible
price target of Rs.460+ in the next 6 months.
*******

ICICI Bank
(BSE Code: 532174) (CMP: Rs.353.55) (FV: Rs.2) (TGT: Rs.420+)
Incorporated in 1955, ICICI Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial services. It operates
through the following segments - Retail Banking, Wholesale Banking, Treasury, Other Banking, Life Insurance, General
Insurance and Others. It offers savings, salary, pension, current, other accounts and fixed, recurring and security
deposits. It also provides home, car, two-wheeler, personal, gold and commercial business loans as well as loans against
securities and other loans; business loans such as working capital finance, term loans, collateral free loans, loans without
financials, finance for importers and exporters, secured loans for credit card swipes as well as loans for new entities,
schools and colleges; and credit, debit, prepaid, travel and corporate cards. In addition, it offers life, health, travel, car,
two-wheeler, home and student medical insurance products; pockets wallet; fixed income products; investment
products such as mutual funds, gold monetization schemes and initial public offerings (IPOs), other online investment
services; and farmer finance, tractor loans and micro banking services as well as other services to agri traders and
processors and agri corporates. It also provides portfolio management, trade, foreign exchange, locker, private and NRI
banking and cash management services; family wealth and demat accounts; commercial banking, investment banking,
capital markets, custodial, project and technology finance and institutional banking services as well as internet, mobile,
and phone banking services. Additionally, it offers securities investment, broking, trading, and underwriting services;
and merchant banking, private equity/venture capital fund management, trusteeship and pension fund management
services. As at 31 March 2017, it had a network of 4,850 branches and 13,882 ATMs.
Credit demand from corporates remains muted and the management does not see any signs of capex revival. Resolution
of NCLT (National Company Law Tribunal) referred cases will give more clarity on capex pickup and asset quality
outlook. The bank aims for ~15% growth in domestic corporate portfolio (excluding restructured loans and loans to
companies included in the drilldown list) even as the overall corporate loan growth remains muted at 4% YoY. Retail
loan growth, however, is holding up well and the bank maintained its retail loan growth guidance of 18-20% for FY18,
led by continued traction across product lines. Unsecured retail loans have grown to 9.6% of total retail loans and
largely pertain to the bank’s existing customers.
ICICI reported 12 bps YoY expansion in
margins over H1FY18 to 3.27%, aided by
interest on income tax refund, strong CASA FOR WEEKLY GAINS
growth and continued traction in retail loans.
However, the absence of such one-off gains, Fast...Focused…First
accelerated re-pricing of advances portfolio Fresh One Up Trend Weekly
and migration of base rate loans to MCLR
(Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending rate) A product designed for short-term trading singling out one
stock to focus upon.
will weigh heavy on margins in H2FY18. On
Fresh One Up Trend Weekly (formerly Power of RS Weekly) will
CASA, the bank is reaching out to government identify the stop loss, buy price range and profit booking levels
clients to provide customized solutions, along with its relative strength, weekly reversal value and the
dashboard and MIS (management information start date of the trend or the turndown exit signals. This
system), which will provide it a sticky recommendation will be followed up in the subsequent week with
business opportunity. the revised levels for each trading parameter.
ICICI expects credit cost to stay elevated in Subscription: Rs.2000 per month or Rs.18000 per annum
the near term since it needs to provide Rs.20 Available via email
bn by March 2018 towards the second list of For a free trial call us on 022-22616970 or email at
stressed accounts given by the RBI. The bank moneytimes.support@gmail.com
has not given any guidance on haircuts

A Time Communications Publication 11


expected in NCLT cases. The bank will share its asset quality divergence details along with Q3FY18 results. However, it
mentioned that outside the stressed asset pool, the maximum ticket size to any BB and below rated borrower is Rs.6 bn,
which gives comfort.
Technical Outlook: The stock looks very good on the daily chart for medium-term investment. It is forming a ‘cup and
handle’ pattern and trades above all important DMA levels like the 200 DMA level on the daily chart.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.353.55 and on dips to Rs.323.55 for medium-to-long term investment and a
possible price target of Rs.420+ in the next 6 months.

STOCK ANALYSIS

Rishabh Digha Steel & Allied Products Ltd


(BSE Code: 531539) (CMP: Rs.60) (FV: Rs.10)
By Rahul Sharma
Incorporated in 1991, Rishabh Digha Steel & Allied Products Ltd (RDSAP) manufactures iron and steel products. Headed
by Mr. Ashok Mehta, Managing Director, RDSAP is primarily engaged in de-coiling, straightening, cutting and shearing of
hot rolled, cold rolled and mild steel coils/sheets. Its plants spread across an area of ~60,000 sq.ft. at Taloja in
Maharashtra have a processing capacity and storage capability of 20,000 tonnes per month. Its plants are fully
modernized and equipped with the latest technology.
RDSAP’s marquee clients include Lloyd Steels, dealers of Tata Steel, SAIL, Ispat Steel, Abhay Ispat (India), ARK
Industries, Arya Ship Breaking Co., Delta Iron & Steel Co., Jay Ambey Steel Traders, Khanna Delta Steel, Kothari Steel
Syndicate, Krishna Sheet Processors, Jay Ambey Steel, Ridhi Sidhi Iron & Steel, Rohit & Co., Siddhi Enterprises, Utkarsh
Steel Corporation, etc.
Financials: RDSAP has minimal debts and it works Financials: (Rs. in mn)
with negligible working capital. The management is Particulars Q2FY18 Q1FY18 Q2FY17 FY17 FY16
investor-friendly and it has consistently paid dividends Total Income 9.33 9.25 5.94 24.74 23.81
for many years.
EBITDA 4.82 3.50 2.30 4.32 6.23
In Q2FY18, RDSAP achieved a turnover of Rs.9.33 mn PAT 3.03 2.15 1.28 2.73 3.21
(up 1% QoQ and up 57% YoY). It reported EBITDA of EPS (Rs.) 0.55 0.39 0.23 0.50 0.5
Rs.4.82 mn (up 38% QoQ and up 110% YoY) and PAT
of Rs.3.03 mn (up 41% QoQ and up 137% YoY). We expect its strong performance to continue going forward.
Investment Rationale: The land which was purchased by RDSAP at Rs.200 per sq.mt. in 1996 is saleable at ~Rs.20,000
per sq.mt. today. In fact, land prices may even appreciate further as the Indian economy is on a fast track growth.
The domestic demand for steel is also set to grow exponentially being driven by massive investments in infrastructure,
automobile, construction, capital goods and consumer durable industries. Expansion plans by domestic players will also
boost the demand for steel in the country. As steel is a basic necessity for infrastructure and with the government’s focus
on infrastructure development, RDSAP has immense potential to grow.
Conclusion: At the CMP of Rs.60, the stock trades at a P/E of 31.75x on its EPS (TTM) of Rs.1.89. The stock is available at
a discount compared to the S&P BSE Small-Cap P/E of 116.5x. Considering these factors, we recommend this stock for a
price target of Rs.150 in the long-term.

MARKET REVIEW

Sensex hits 35,000


By Devendra A Singh
The Sensex advanced 919.19 points to settle above 35K at 35511.58 while the Nifty closed at 10894.70 gaining 213.45
points for the week ending Friday, 19 January 2018.
On India’s macro-economic front, the Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index was at 53 in December 2017, up from
50.3 in November 2017. The seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index signaled a renewed increase in activity
following a decline in November 2017 with 48.5 in November 2017 to 50.9 in December 2017.

A Time Communications Publication 12


Aashna Dodhia, Economist at IHS Markit said, “India’s service economy showed signs of recovery as it returned to
marginal expansion in December. That said, it remained on a weak growth trajectory amid reports that the GST was still
hindering efforts to secure new clients. Greater backlogs continued to accumulate as a result of cash shortages and
delayed payments that stemmed from the disruption of recent structural reforms”.
On the inflation figures, the annual rate of inflation based on monthly WPI stood at 3.58% (provisional) for December
2017. Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was 2.21% compared to a build-up rate of 3.71% in the previous
corresponding period.
The rate of inflation based on WPI Food Index consisting of food articles from primary articles group and food products
from manufactured products group fell from 4.1% in November 2017 to 2.91% in December 2017.
The CPI Inflation rose to 5.21% in December 2017, a 17-month high due to the rising food inflation and fuel inflation.
Fuel inflation surged to 7.9% in December 2017 from 6.36% in November 2017. Food inflation rose to 4.85% in
December 2017 from 4.42% in November 2017.
On the EXIM front, exports during December 2017 have exhibited positive growth of 12.36% in dollar terms vis-a-vis
December 2016. Exports during December 2017 were valued at $27 bn compared to $24 bn during December 2016. In
INR terms, exports were valued at Rs.173648.73 crore compared to Rs.163344.45 crore during December 2016.
Imports during December 2017 were valued at $41.91 bn, which was 21.12% higher in dollar terms and 14.59% higher
in rupee terms over the level of imports valued at $34.60 bn in December 2016. Cumulative value of imports for the
period April-December 2017-18 was $33.83 bn as against $27.78 bn, registering a positive growth of 21.76% in dollar
terms and 17% in INR terms over the same period last year.
Moreover, the country’s foreign exchange reserves surged by $4.444 bn to touch a new life- time high of $409.366 bn in
the week to 29 December 2018. The central bank said that the surge was due to a massive spike in foreign currency
assets, which is a key component of the reserves.
In the reporting week, foreign currency assets rose by $4.423 bn to $385.103 bn.
Gold reserves remained unchanged at $20.716 billion. Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) with the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) rose by $8.9 mn to $1.511 bn.
Direct tax collections during the first nine-and-a-half months of the current fiscal have risen by 18.7% to Rs.6.89 lakh
crore. The collections till 15 January 2018 represent over 70% of the Rs.9.8 lakh crore revenue target from direct taxes.
Gross collections (before adjusting for refunds) have increased by 13.5% to Rs.8.11 lakh crore between April 2017 and
15 January 2018. Refunds amounting to Rs.1.22 lakh crore were issued during this period. The growth rate of total net
direct tax collections has risen from 14.8% in Q1 to 15.8% in Q2 to 18.2% in Q3 and to 18.7% as at 15 January 2018.
The growth in corporate tax collections has risen from 4.8% in the first quarter of the current fiscal to 10.1% in Q3 and
11.4% as at 15 January 2018. The growth rate of net corporate tax collections has risen from 10.8% in Q2 to 17.4% in Q3
and to 18.2% as at 15 January 2018.
Key index gained on Monday, 15 January 2018, on buying of equities. The Sensex surged 251.12 points (+0.73%) to close
at 34843.51.
Key index ended lower on Tuesday, 16 January 2018, on For the busy investor
modest selling. The Sensex fell 72.46 points (-0.21%) to
close at 34771.05.
Fresh One Up Trend Daily
Fresh One Up Trend Daily is for investors/traders who are
Key index surged on Wednesday, 17 January 2018, on
keen to focus and gain from a single stock every
strong buying of equities by FIIs. The Sensex gained
trading day.
310.77 points (+0.89%) to a historic closing high at
35081.82. With just one daily recommendation selected from
Key index edged higher on Thursday, 18 January 2018, stocks in an uptrend, you can now book profit the same
on buying by foreign funds. The Sensex advanced 178.47 day or carry over the trade if the target is not met. Our
points (+0.51%) to close at 35260.29. review over the next 4 days will provide new exit levels
Key index settled higher on Friday, 19 January 2018, a while the stock is still in an uptrend.
record all-time closing high. The Sensex climbed 251.29 This low risk, high return product is available for online
points (+0.71%) to close at 35511.58. subscription at Rs.2500 per month.
Events like national and global macro-economic figures Contact us on 022-22616970 or email us at
as well as the earnings season will dictate the movement moneytimes.suppport@gmail.com for a free trial.
of the markets and influence investor sentiment in the
near future.

A Time Communications Publication 13


The Budget session of the Parliament will commence from 29 January 2018 and the Union Budget will be presented on 1
February 2018.
United States macro data for December 2017 is scheduled for release this month.
Eurozone macro-economic figures for December 2017 are scheduled for release this week and the European Central
Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy statement is scheduled on Thursday, 25 January 2018.

MARKET OUTLOOK

Trade with caution


By Rohan Nalavade Relative Strength (RS)
As rightly stated in the previous edition, we did see a sharp
signals a stock’s ability to perform in a
movement in Nifty and Bank Nifty last week. Now, 10780 acts as a
dynamic market.
major support level. A ‘sell’ trend can emerge only if the Nifty
Knowledge of it can lead you to profits.
breaches this level on a closing basis. Above 10780, a range of
10950-11100 can be seen. This week is very important as it POWER OF RS - Rs.3100 for 1 year:
reminds me of the last week of January 2008 when the Nifty ‘top’
was made where-after a fall had resumed. Similarly, this week What you get -
also we are in a 52-week high and a bad budget can test 1,000 Most Important- Association for 1 year
points within a month. So be cautious and trade intraday. If 9729
breaks, wait for another 500-point fall. If it sustains above 9800,
at just Rs.3100!
then trade intra-day. 10950 is a very important resistance level 1-2 buy / sell per day on a daily basis
and if the Nifty crosses it, then 11,100 can be seen. 1 buy per week
So, a trend for the next 3 months will be established after this 1 buy per month
week for 700-1000 points on either side. Don't miss that 1 buy per quarter
opportunity. February’s first week candle will be very important
1 buy per year
for the near-term and its high/low whichever is crossed first will
set the big trend. Enter long positions after the budget day so that For more details, contact Money Times on
sector-specific stocks can be accumulated and good trades can be 022-22616970/4805 or
initiated. moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
Among stocks,
 Hindalco Industries is a ‘sell’ below Rs.255 for a target of Rs.250-242-240 (SL: Rs.260)
 Colgate-Palmolive (India) is a ‘sell’ below Rs.1150 for a target of Rs.1120 (SL: Rs.1166)
 Tata Steel is a ‘sell’ at Rs.753 for a target of Rs.732 (SL: Rs.766)
 Yes Bank is a ‘sell’ below Rs.351 for a target of Rs.340-330 (SL: Rs.355)
 Adani Enterprises is a ‘buy’ above Rs.199 for a target of Rs.210 (SL: Rs.194)

PRESS RELEASE

Galaxy Surfactants IPO opens on 29th January


Surfactants manufacturer Galaxy Surfactants Ltd (GSL) plans to raise Rs.937 crore through its IPO in the price band of
Rs.1470-1480 for its Rs.10 paid-up equity share. The IPO is an offer for sale (OFS) of up to 6,331,674 equity shares by
the selling shareholders and hence, no proceeds of the issue will go the company. The issue closes on Wednesday, 31
January 2018.
GSL is a leading manufacturer of surfactants and other speciality ingredients for the personal care and home care
industries. Its diversified customer base comprises multinational, regional and local FMCG companies including
Cavinkare, Colgate-Palmolive, Dabur, Henkel, Himalaya, L’ORÉAL, Procter & Gamble, Reckitt Benckiser, Jyothy
Laboratories and Unilever. Its product portfolio comprises over 200 product grades, which are marketed to 1,700+
customers across 70+ countries.
GSL’s revenues have grown from Rs.17015.78 mn in FY14 to Rs.21717 mn in FY17 while PAT has grown from Rs.759.97
mn to Rs.1463.06 mn over the same period. Its RoNW stands at 29%.

A Time Communications Publication 14


EXPERT EYE
By Vihari

Shreyans MID-CAP TWINS


A Performance Review
Industries Ltd: Have a look at the grand success story of ‘Mid-Cap Twins’ launched on 1st August 2016
For decent gains Sr. Scrip Name
No.
Recomm. Recomm.
Date
Highest
Price (Rs.) since (Rs.)
% Gain

(BSE Code: 516016) 1 Mafatlal Industries 01-08-16 332.85 374.40 12


(CMP: Rs.202.55) (FV: Rs.10) 2 Great Eastern Shipping Co. 01-08-16 335.35 477 42
Shreyans Industries Ltd (SIL) 3 India Cements 01-09-16 149.85 226 51
was incorporated in 1979 to set
4 Tata Global Beverages 01-09-16 140.10 293.70 110
up a 30 TPD paper project. In
1994, it took over the paper 5 Ajmera Realty & Infra India 01-10-16 137.00 355.70 160
division (Shree Rishabh Papers) 6 Transpek Industry 01-10-16 447.00 1455.40 226
of Zenith, a BIFR division of the 7 Greaves Cotton 01-11-16 138.55 178 28
Birla group. This unit has since 8 APM Industries 01-11-16 67.10 84.40 26
contributed substantially to its
turnover. In 1995-96, it set up a 9 OCL India 01-12-16 809.45 1620 100
chemical recovery plant with 10 Prism Cement 01-12-16 93.25 129.80 39
power generation at Shreyans 11 Mahindra CIE Automotive 01-01-17 182.50 266.50 46
Paper Mills at Ahmedgarh at a 12 Swan Energy 01-01-17 154.10 204 32
cost of Rs.14.50 crore.
13 Hindalco Industries 01-02-17 191.55 278.50 45
SIL manufactures writing and
14 Century Textiles & Industries 01-02-17 856.50 1421 66
printing (W&P) paper. It has two
plants in Punjab - Shreyans 15 McLeod Russel India 01-03-17 171.75 248.30 45
Papers and Shree Rishabh 16 Sonata Software 01-03-17 191.00 247 29
Papers, with an installed 17 ACC 01-04-17 1446.15 1869 29
capacity to manufacture 94,000 18 Walchandnagar Industries 01-04-17
TPA of W&P paper from agro-
142.25 272.90 92
based raw materials. It also has a 19 Oriental Veneer Products 01-05-17 222.30 540 143
bio-methanation raw materials 20 Tata Steel 01-05-17 448.85 734.90 64
wash water plant. The project is 21 Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries 01-06-17 501.40 590.75 18
registered under Clean 22 Ujjivan Financial Services 01-06-17 307.45 417.40 36
Technologies Development
Mechanism [CDM] of United 23 Ashok Leyland 01-07-17 93.85 133 42
Nations. It has ~12 MW of 24 KSB Pumps 01-07-17 759.55 931 23
captive power plant. Its 25 IRB Infrastructure Developers 01-08-17 224.95 251 12
operations are fully integrated 26 JTL Infra 01-08-17 70 125 79
with chemical recovery and
27 Stock ‘A’ 01-09-17 187.40 308.90 65
captive power generation.
28 Stock ‘B’ 01-09-17 271.20 317 17
SIL offers products in various
grades ranging from 44 grams 29 Stock ‘C’ 01-10-17 73.65 89.25 21
per square meter (GSM) to 200 30 Stock ‘D’ 01-10-17 74.10 91.35 23
GSM. Its product range includes 31 Stock ‘E’ 01-11-17 206 218.95 6
High Brightness Paper, Cream 32 Stock ‘F’ 01-11-17
Wove, Coloured Paper,
38 57.90 52
Duplicating Paper, Surface Sized Thus ‘Mid-Cap Twins’ has delivered excellent results since its launch with majority of
Printing Paper, Azure Laid stocks gaining over 30%.
Paper, Maplitho Paper, Stamp Latest edition of ‘Mid-Cap Twins’ was released on 1 January 2018.
Paper, Postal Envelope Paper,
Inland Letter Paper, Offset Attractively priced at Rs.2000 per month, Rs.11000 half yearly and Rs.20,000 annually,
Paper, Cover Paper, Super ‘Mid-cap Twins’ will be available both as print edition or online delivery.
Calendered Paper, Rail Ticket

A Time Communications Publication 15


Paper, Super Printing Paper, Super Calendered Paper, Rail Ticket Paper and Super Printing Paper.
During FY17, SIL operated at 83% overall plant utilization due to its ongoing plant modernization initiative. The average
realization in FY17 stood at Rs.52/kg. With rise in average realization of paper and with good harvest both in Sugarcane
and Wheat in the northern region, SIL is expected to report better profitability going ahead.
For FY17, SIL posted 167% higher PAT of Rs.23.1 crore on 7% higher sales of Rs.420 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.16.7. Its
EPS could have been higher at Rs.23.3 but for the exceptional payment of Rs.9.1 crore towards the electricity bill of
earlier years. SIL has however along with few other consumers challenged Punjab State Power in the Supreme Court in
March 2017. During Q2FY18, it posted 14% higher PAT of Rs.7.3 crore on 2% higher sales of Rs.107.6 crore fetching an
EPS of Rs.5.3. During H1FY18, it posted 39% higher PAT of Rs.14.4 crore on 7% higher sales of Rs.220.3 crore fetching
an EPS of Rs.10.5.
With an equity capital of Rs.13.8 crore and reserves of Rs.108 crore, SIL’s share book value works out to Rs.88. Debts
were Rs.41 crore. Cash, investments and loans given, etc. stood at Rs.48 crore, which gives it a debt-free status. The
promoters hold 47.3% of the equity capital, PCBs hold 20.6% and FIs hold 1.1%, which leaves 31% stake with the
investing public.
Paper usage has increased over the years. However, the per capita consumption in India is just ~10 kgs compared to the
global average of 57 kgs; China - 75 kgs; European Union - 156 kgs; Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia –
159 kgs; Japan - 215 kgs; and North America - 221 kgs. India has 17% of the world's population yet accounts for just
~3% of the world's production of paper and paperboard. The estimated turnover of the industry is ~Rs.50000 crore and
contributes Rs.4500 crore to the exchequer and provides employment to over 0.5 million people directly and 1.5 million
people indirectly.
Paper demand is likely to grow at 5.5-6.5% to touch 18.5-19 MMT by 2020-21. Rise in consumption by 1 kg per capita on
a 100 bps rise in GDP is expected to increase demand by 1 MMT. With growth in GDP and increase in literacy, paper
consumption in India is bound to rise.
Newsprint prices have risen from ~29/kg in September to ~40/kg currently in the domestic market due to closure of
several newsprint mills last year globally, conversion of several newsprint mills into W&P mills in China and disruption
of newsprint supply by Russian mills, which controls over 25% of the domestic newsprint import market. The tight
demand-supply scenario will push the prices higher in the near-term, which augurs well for the Indian paper industry.
The Chinese government has recently banned the import of waste paper, which is the primary raw material for finished
paper. This will have an impact on the production of finished paper in China, which in turn will lead to a rise in the prices
of finished paper. Eventually, paper manufacturing companies like SIL will witness volume growth and also benefit due
to higher paper prices.
SIL is banking on modernisation/ debottlenecking of plant to further enhance operating efficiency as its current EBITDA
margin of 13% is below the virgin grade integrated paper industry standard of 20-25%. It planned a major capex in its
Shree Rishabh Papers unit during FY17, which is expected to be completed by FY18 end. This project will entirely
revamp both its pulp mill and paper machine. The total project is expected to cost Rs.20.4 crore, which is being partially
financed by a term loan of Rs.13 crore.
SIL is expected to post EPS of Rs.30 in FY18 and Rs.38 in FY19. The stock trades at Rs.202.55, discounting its FY18E EPS
by 6.7x and FY19E EPS by 5.3x. Investment in this stock can fetch over 40% returns in the medium-term. The stock’s 52-
week high/low is Rs.234/105.1.
******

Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd: Gainful proposition


(BSE Code: 533217) (CMP: Rs.257.55) (FV: Rs.10)
Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd (HMVL) is a leading print media company in terms of readership. It publishes and prints
'Hindustan', the third largest daily newspaper in India with a readership of 9.9 million readers. The first edition was
published in April 1936 from Delhi. HMVL also operates the website www.livehindustan.com, which complements the
newspaper and focuses on providing news in Hindi with regional content. HMVL was named by Forbes as one of the best
‘Under a Billion’ companies in the Asia-Pacific region. It is the only Indian media company to make it to the list.
'Hindustan' has the largest readership in key Hindi-speaking markets of Bihar and Jharkhand, with a strong and growing
presence in Delhi NCR, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. It is published in 4 editions and 113 sub-editions and is printed
at 17 locations in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Delhi NCR with a total installed rated
capacity ~0.78 million copies per hour. It covers news across the entire spectrum of international, national and local
news relating to politics, business, entertainment, sports and other general interests.

A Time Communications Publication 16


In the past nine months, ‘Hindustan’ added 58 lakh readers to its readership base, of which 41 lakh readers were added
in Uttar Pradesh. ‘Hindustan’ now has a 30% share of readership in Uttar Pradesh, with a total readership of 1.28 crore.
It continues to maintain its dominant position in Bihar and Jharkhand with 83% and 73% share of total readers.
For FY17, HMVL’s net profit rose 7% to Rs.193.6 crore on 3% higher sales of Rs.933.3 crore fetching a consolidated EPS
of Rs.26.4 and a dividend of 12% was paid. During Q3FY18, net profit rose 14% to Rs.49.3 crore on flat sales of Rs.230
crore fetching an EPS of Rs.6.7. During 9MFY18, net profit fell 7% to Rs.135.3 crore on 3% lower sales of Rs.677.9 crore
fetching an EPS of Rs.18.4.
Against investments of Rs.1001 crore, cash of Rs.38 crore and loans given, etc. of Rs.14 crore, HMVL has debts of just
Rs.117 crore. The value of its gross block is Rs.284 crore. The promoters hold 74.3% of the equity capital. FIs hold
16.2%, PCBs hold 2.9% and DIs hold 1%, which leaves 5.6% stake with the investing public.
The gains across all markets clearly demonstrate the growing strength of Hindustan daily. With many of the newer
editions yet to reflect in IRS, the growth momentum is likely to be sustained. Over the past three years, HMVL has made
significant investments in Uttar Pradesh and has opened 5 new printing locations in Agra, Meerut, Allahabad, Kanpur
and Bareilly to add to its existing printing facilities at Varanasi (on a franchisee basis) and Lucknow.
The third quarter witnessed overall revenue growth with advertising revenue picking up sharply towards the end of the
period. The growth, however, comes over a base impacted by both an early festive season and demonetisation. HMVL
continues to reap the benefits of company-wide cost rationalisation initiative, which will be visible in the expansion of
its profit margins going forward. Realized restructuring continues to benefit across cost heads. HMVL recently sold its
entire investment in HT Digital Streams Ltd, which resulted in a gain of Rs.15.3 crore.
With the teething issues around GST resolved, HMVL sees potential and a sharper growth in advertising revenue in the
next financial year. Its focus on initiatives to augment market volumes, better cover price realization, persistent
investment into copies in core markets, better monetization of copies through higher yield and continuous focus on cost
management will lead to higher profitability going forward.
Based on its current going, HMVL is expected to notch an EPS of Rs.27 in FY18. At the CMP of Rs.257.55, the stock trades
at a forward P/E of just 9.5x against the industry average P/E of 18x. A reasonable P/E of 14x will take its share price to
Rs.378 in the medium-term. The stock’s 52-week high/ low is Rs.297.95/225.
Errata: In the article on Som Distilleries & Breweries Ltd by Vihari published in the previous issue of Money Times dated
15-21 January 2018, the last sentence should be read as –
The stock has the potential to cross Rs.350 in the long term.

TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel
REVIEW
Sakthi Finance Ltd  Indo Thai Securities recommended at Rs.64.25 on 11 December 2017,
(BSE Code: 511066) (CMP: Rs.46.20) zoomed to Rs.128 last week appreciating 100% in 1.5 months.
(FV: Rs.10)  Archidply Industries recommended at Rs.103.5 on 11 December 2017,
Incorporated in 1955, Coimbatore- zoomed to Rs.131 last week appreciating 26% in 1.5 months.
based Sakthi Finance Ltd (SFL), a part  PCS Technology recommended at Rs.26.4 on 4 December 2017, zoomed to
of the Sakthi group, is a non-banking Rs.34 last week appreciating 29% in 1.5 months.
finance company (NBFC) that provides  Triton Valves recommended at Rs.1797.65 on 27 November 2017, zoomed to
asset financing services. It offers hire Rs.2795 last week appreciating 55% in 1.5 months.
purchase financing for small, medium  CMI recommended at Rs.209.9 on 27 November 2017, zoomed to Rs.308 last
and heavy commercial vehicles; and week appreciating 47% in 1.5 months.
financing for purchasing infrastructure
 Sadhana Nitrochem recommended at Rs.70 on 4 September 2017, zoomed to
construction equipment, multi-utility Rs.148 last week appreciating 111% in 4.5 months.
vehicles, cars, jeeps and other
machinery. It also generates power  Rishabh Digha Steel & Allied Products recommended at Rs.37.25 on 21
August 2017, zoomed to Rs.71 last Week appreciating 91% in 5 months.
through windmills and sells power to
Tamil Nadu Electricity Board and
Gujarat Urja Vikas Nigam Ltd. It operates 17 windmills with 5,150 KW capacity in Tamil Nadu and Gujarat. It operates
through a network of 49 branches across Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Haryana and the
Union Territory of Puducherry.

A Time Communications Publication 17


With an equity capital of Rs.50 crore and reserves of Rs.85.1 crore, SFL’s share book value works out to Rs.27. The
promoters hold 64.21% of the equity capital, which leaves 35.79% stake with the investing public. Its P/BV ratio is
around 1.71x, which is the cheapest in the NBFC segment.
During Q2FY18, SFL reported PAT of Rs.3.77 crore on Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
sales of Rs.40.31 crore fetching an EPS of Re.0.75. During
Particulars Q2FY18 Q2FY17 H1FY18 H1FY17 FY17
H1FY18, PAT rose 7% to Rs.7.46 crore on sales of
Sales 40.31 41.41 80.92 81.23 167.81
Rs.80.92 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.1.49. It paid 10%
dividend for FY17. PBT 5.03 5.66 10.09 10.44 21.12
Tax 1.26 1.89 2.62 3.45 4.36
Currently, the stock trades at a P/E of just 13.39x, which
PAT 3.77 3.77 7.46 6.99 16.76
is the lowest in the NBFC space.
EPS (in Rs.) 0.75 0.75 1.49 1.40 3.10
NBFC stocks have rallied in the last 3 years and still look
attractive at the current level. Based on the above financial parameters, the SFL share looks undervalued at the current
level. Investors can buy this stock with a stop loss of Rs.35. On the upper side, it could zoom to Rs.60-65 in the medium-
term.
********

Akar Auto Industries Ltd


(BSE Code: 530621) (CMP: Rs.75.30) (FV: Rs.5)
One more successful year for TF+ subscribers…
We had recommended this stock at Rs.55.55 on 26 What TF+ subscribers say:
September 2016 and once again at Rs.102.70 on 2
October 2017, where-after it zoomed to Rs.165.45 in “Think Investment… Think TECHNO FUNDA PLUS”
November 2017. The face value of the stock was split Techno Funda Plus is a superior version of the Techno Funda
from Rs.10 to Rs.5 on 29 November 2017. column that has recorded near 90% success since launch.
Incorporated in 1989, Aurangabad-based Akar Every week, Techno Funda Plus identifies three fundamentally
Auto Industries Ltd (AAIL) manufactures and sells sound and technically strong stocks that can yield handsome
hand tools, auto leaf springs, parabolic springs and returns against their peers in the short-to-medium-term.
commercial automotive forgings. It offers spanners Most of our recommendations have fetched excellent returns to
such as open-ended jaw, ring and combination our subscribers. Of the 156 stocks recommended between 11
spanners; carpenter/striking tools including January 2016 and 2 January 2017 (52 weeks), we booked profit in
pincers and tin cutters, striking tools, planes and T- 125 stocks, 27 triggered the stop loss.
bar cramps and saws; and leather tool aprons. It
Of the 156 stocks recommended between 9 January 2017 and 1
also provides automotive/construction tools January 2018 (52 weeks), we booked 7-41% profit in 119 stocks,
comprising vices, chisels, clamps, hacksaws, 24 triggered the stop loss of 2-18% while 13 are still open. Out of
lubricating tools, tubular box spanners, bearing 13, 11 stocks are in green & 2 stocks are in nominal red.
pullers and punches; wrecking bars and nail
pullers; pipes, wheels and filter wrenches; If you want to earn like this,
packaging products; electrical tools such as pliers, subscribe to TECHNO FUNDA PLUS today!
screw drivers; and electronic and surgical tools. It
For more details, contact Money Times on
exports to Europe, USA, Japan, Australia and other 022-22616970/22654805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
countries worldwide. Its marquee clients include
Ashok Leyland, Bajaj Auto, BHEL, Force Motors, Subscription Rate: 1 month: Rs.2500; 3 months: Rs.6000;
6 months: Rs.11000; 1 year: Rs.18000.
Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Kirloskar,
Piaggio, Greaves, etc.
With an equity capital of Rs.5.39 crore and reserves of Rs.22.12 crore, AAIL’s share book value works out to Rs.25.5 and
its P/BV is reasonable at 2.9x. The promoters hold 73.06% of the equity capital, which leaves 26.94% stake with the
investing public.
For FY17, AAIL reported 42% higher PAT at Rs.2.62 Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
crore on higher sales of Rs.189.35 crore fetching an Particulars Q2FY18 Q2FY17 H1FY18 H1FY17 FY17
EPS of Rs.2.43. During Q2FY18, PAT soared 66% to
Sales 61.80 46.65 107.56 96.21 189.35
Rs.0.98 crore on 32% higher sales of Rs.61.8 crore
PBT 1.56 0.95 2.48 1.88 4.02
fetching an EPS of Re.0.91. During H1FY18, PAT
jumped 35% to Rs.1.59 crore on 12% higher sales of Tax 0.58 0.35 0.90 0.71 1.40
Rs.107.56 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.1.47. PAT has PAT 0.98 0.59 1.59 1.18 2.62
grown at 40% CAGR in the last four years. AAIL is a EPS (in Rs.) 0.91 0.55 1.47 1.09 2.43

A Time Communications Publication 18


regular dividend-paying company and it paid 11% dividend for FY17.
Currently, the stock trades at a P/E of 26.8x. Based on its financial parameters, the stock looks quite attractive for
investment at the current level. Investors can buy this stock with a stop loss of Rs.62. On the upper side, it could zoom to
Rs.100-105 in the medium-term.

BULL’S EYE

Hind Aluminium Industries Ltd REVIEW: Genus Power Infrastructures recommended


(BSE Code: 531979) (CMP: Rs.167.30) (FV: Rs.10) at Rs.59.80 on 16 October 2017, zoomed to Rs.86 last
week appreciating 44% in 3 months.
By Pratit Nayan Patel
Company Background: Incorporated in 1987, Mumbai-based Hind Aluminium Industries Ltd (HAIL) is a part of
Associated Group, which began operations in the aluminum industry in 1973. It manufactures and sells aluminum
products. It operates through two segments - Aluminum and Power. It offers EC wire rods for redrawing into
wires/strips for the manufacture of cables, conductors, transformer wires/strips and various hardware/general
engineering components; and all aluminum conductors, aluminum alloy conductors, aluminum conductors steel
reinforced, etc. It also mines and sells bauxite, iron ore, lime stone and other minerals. In addition, it operates 2 wind
turbine generators and 4 solar power plants with total power generation capacity of 4.18 MW. It is a leading
manufacturer of Aluminium Wire Rods, Alloy Rods, AAC, AAAC, ACAR, ACSR, AACSR and AL59 conductors. Its plants are
based at Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Silvassa (UT) near Mumbai. It has a manufacturing capacity of 40,000 TPA wire rods and
25,000 TPA conductors. It manufactures conductors in a voltage range of up to 765 KVA.
Financials: With an equity capital of Rs.6.3 crore and reserves of Rs.69.8 crore, HAIL’s share book value works out to
Rs.120.79. The promoters hold 62.12% of the equity capital, Anand Rathi Global Finance Ltd holds 3.65%, Four
Dimensions Securities (India) Ltd holds 2.7%, which leaves 31.52% stake with the investing public.
Performance Review: During Performance Review: (Rs. in crore)
Q2FY18, HAIL reported 171% Particulars Q2FY18 O1FY18 Q2FY17 H1FY18 H1FY17 FY17 FY16
higher PAT of Rs.2.87 crore on
61% higher sales of Rs.155.26 Total Income 155.26 141.55 95.83 296.81 255.95 498.17 719.77
crore with an EPS of Rs.4.55. PBT 4.74 2.52 3.24 7.26 6.65 8.57 13.51
During H1FY18, PAT jumped 21% Tax 1.87 - 2.18 1.87 2.18 2.11 4.14
to Rs.5.39 crore on 16% higher
PAT 2.87 2.52 1.06 5.39 4.47 6.46 9.01
sales of Rs.296.81 crore fetching
an EPS of Rs.8.55. EPS (Rs.) 4.55 4 1.68 8.55 7.09 10.27 14.30
Industry Overview: India plans to invest $1 tn in the power sector by 2030 to achieve its goal of providing 24x7
electricity to all citizens. This will boost the demand for power conductors in India significantly. Capacity creation in
core sectors such as infrastructure, power, mining, oil and gas, refinery, steel, automotive and consumer durables are
driving the demand for conductors in India. Further, expansion of nuclear capacity will generate additional business
opportunities for conductors.
More than 42% of conductors are exported to African countries. Kenya has consistently remained amongst the top 10
Indian conductor importers over the last 5 years. Total exports to Kenya were around Rs.580 crore, constituting ~12%
of the total conductor exports during the last 5 years. To capatilise on this opportunity in Kenya’s power supply sector,
HAIL has set up a subsidiary - Hind Aluminium Industries (Kenya) Ltd to manufacture conductors in Kenya. Commercial
production is yet to start.
Looking at the proposed and ongoing infrastructure projects, we expect strong order inflow momentum to continue in
this sector.
Conclusion: At the CMP, the stock trades at a P/E of 14.54x. Its market cap is just Rs.105.40 crore and its sales were
Rs.538.24 crore on TTM basis. Thus, its market cap to sales ratio works out to just 0.2x, which is highly undervalued.
Based on its financial parameters, the stock looks quite attractive for investment at the current level. Investors can
accumulate this stock with a stop loss of Rs.150 for a price target of Rs.225-230 in the next 6-9 months. The stock’s 52-
week high/low is Rs.170/83.05.
Errata:
In the article on Maan Aluminium Ltd by Pratit Nayan Patel published in the previous issue of Money Times dated 15-21
January 2018, a line from his previous article on another scrip from the old template about Ashish Kacholia having
acquired 10 lakh shares has inadvertently slipped in instead of being deleted. Readers are requested to ignore this line
from the write-up as the writer or Money Times is not aware of Mr. Kacholia's interest in Maan Aluminium Ltd. The error is
A sincerely
Time Communications Publication
regretted. – Editor 19
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Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources that are deemed to
be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does not accept any lia bility for the use of
this column for the buying or selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are
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A Time Communications Publication 20


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A Time Communications Publication 21

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