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Boiler Turbine Generator

Equipment Market
Dynamics and Outlook for
Thermal Power in India-
2017
Determining the Business Case for the Domestic & International
OEMs , Tracking Degree of Competitiveness and the Way Out for
Sustenance

May 2017
Why enincon’s report upon “ Boiler Turbine Generator Equipment
Market Dynamics and Outlook for Thermal Power
in India – 2017 ?”
MAJOR ORDER BOOK FLOW FROM NTPC & SEBs, DRYING UP OF ORDER BOOK OF PRIVATE PLAYERS, PMP POLICY AND FAST PACED
GROWTH OF RENEWABLE POWER – WHAT FUTURE HOLDS FOR OEMS OF BTG EQUIPMENT MARKET IN INDIA

CURRENT ANNOUNCEMENT FROM CEA LIKELY TO BENEFIT DOMESTIC OEMs IN TERMS OF REVENUE,
SLUGGISH GROWTH OBSERVED FOR HEAVY MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY AND PRO- RENEWABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN INDIA PRESENCE TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR OEMs : WHERE DOES THE OPPORTUNITY
LIE ?

India’s current installed capacity of 315 GW has still a fair share of thermal power plants based on coal which
accounts for sufficing the base load of the country. Although, India is cognitive of the global trend of gradually
wishing away with polluting source of coal based electricity generation , but completely stripping of these
capacities shall not be possible for one of the fastest growing economies of the world. Given, the estimate
even if we consider India to grow by a normative 7% as an economy, the need of growth in infrastructural
development shall also be of the same order. Hence, despite country’s Paris commitment to reduce carbon
influx, India has to be dependent on coal till 2030 for meeting of its consistent base load .

As country, shifts its portfolio from thermal to renewable in terms of capacity generation , the transcend also
observed in terms of investment in the thermal and renewable space respectively. With India, completely
witnessing drying up of orders from private project developers , the thermal power generation looks to be a
dicey proposition for OEMs in the country. With fresh capacities only coming from either NTPC or SEBs in
terms of new order , the current BTG equipment market look highly hinged in the favor of domestic OEMs, the
fate of other bulk investments by big global OEMs looms large in dark. In this regard, it was quint essential to
spot the silver lining in the current dynamics of thermal power generation for the OEMs to sustain and develop
their respective business model. The DCR proposition and strict PMP obligation to be followed for NTPC’s and
SEB’s PPs , road appears tough for those OEMs which donot manufacturing capacity installed in the country.
Exhibit 01: Order Booked Capacity of BTG Equipments (Above 660 MW) in India for 12th FYP*

BTG Order Booked (For Above 660 MW) Capacity for 12th FYP* BTG Capacity ( For Above 660 MW) for 12th FYP* (Commissioned +
as per Region & Developer Category (In Percentage) Upcoming) in GW

15
11% 24%

Capacity in GW
State Players DM: Domestic
9% SDI : Shared Domestic- International
19% Central Players 7.5
IN: International
15% 11% C: Chinese
Private Players
NC: Non-Chinese
44%
0
34% DM SDI IN C NC
42%

11%
30%

Upcoming BTG (For Above 660 MW) Capacity for 12th BTG Capacity (For Above 660 MW) for 13th
FYP* ( in GW) FYP (Order Booked in 12th FYP*) in GW

50% 6 15

Capacity in GW
Capacity in GW

SR ER
3 7.5
NR WR

0 0
Please Note : The outer crust of the above DM SDI IN C NC DM SDI IN C NC
doughnut signifies capacities of Central
Players for all the regions, the inner crust
signifies capacities of state players for all
regions and the core signifies the capacities * Status as on 2016
of private players for all regions

Source : CEA , enincon research


BUSINESS CASE FOR BTG EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS IN INDIA

1. Coal to be the prime source of capacity generation supporting the base load power requirements of the
country
2. Government working in line to make coal a cleaner fuel by replacing the old power plants with new ones,
hence high efficiency on the generation front
3. In order to encourage the domestic manufacturing, government mandates state-run generators to insist on
phased domestic manufacturing plan from supercritical equipment suppliers
4. The (CEA) advisory on indigenous manufacturing of supercritical equipment could lift profitability of
domestic boiler turbine generator manufacturers
5. The government is working on a plan to shut down 25-40 GW of old highly polluting thermal power plants and
set up new coal based super-efficient power projects

REPORT INSIGHTS

1. Detailed study of supercritical and subcritical power generation equipments market size in India
2. Business case evaluation for setting manufacturing units in India
3. Competition landscaping of existing OEMs into the BTG market in India
4. Factorial analysis of BTG market industry outlook in India for both domestic and international OEMs
5. Evaluating manufacturing outlook of boilers and turbine-generator sets in India
6. Focus on supercritical units and the planned capacity additions
7. Consumer category wise market size for BTG equipments in India
8. Opportunity in terms of modernizing of ageing units
9. Analyzing market drivers enabling opportunity in BTG equipment manufacturing in India
KEY HIGHLIGHTS

1. Understanding supercritical thermal power generation scenario in India


2. A holistic track of existing OEMs in the Indian power generation equipment manufacturing space and the
market entry
3. Make in India and business case for domestic OEMs
4. Unleashing driving factors and restraints for BTG market in India
5. Tracking the financing facilities for BTG projects in India
6. Future outlook of in house BTG manufacturing facilities in India and the business case for domestic OEMs
7. Joint undertaking policy and other regulatory obligations impacting domestic manufacturing of BTG
equipments
8. Evaluating region wise , consumer wise and supplier wise market size for BTG OEMs in India

PRESS EXCERPTS

Coal as a fuel for power generation is as important as renewable sources as it is essential to maintain the country’s base
load, power, coal, renewable energy and mines minister Piyush Goyal today said.

ET energy

The power ministry has just extended an existing advisory that mandates state-run generators to insist on phased
domestic manufacturing plan from supercritical equipment suppliers.
ET Energy
KEY QUERIES ADDRESSED

• What would be the potential market size for domestic OEMs by 2022 in Indian BTG space ?
• Competitive benchmarking and landscaping of the players into the manufacturing of BTG equipments in India
• What would be the vendor base for sub-critical and super-critical BTG equipments in India ?
• What would be competition degree of BTG OEMs in India vis-à-vis price factor ?
• What would be the competitive edge of BTG OEMs in India vis-à-vis after sales service ?
• What would be the competitive degree of BTG OEMs in India vis-à-vis extended scope capacity ?
• What would be the impact of DCR and PMP policies on domestic manufacturing of BTG equipments ?
• What opportunites shall hold for international and private domestic OEMs , given the policy change scenario ?

MUST BUY FOR

• Independent Power Producers


• Central Power Producers
• State Generation Companies
• Boiler Manufacturing OEMs
• Turbine Manufacturing OEMs
• Generators Manufacturing OEMs
• Balance of Plant Equipment Manufacturers
• Power Generation Equipment Vendors
• Other Value Chain Players
• Research Bodies
• Industry Associations
• Technical Consulting Group
• Financial Institutes/ Banks
Having said that arguably , by 2020 enincon believes that thermal power is destined to roll back into
generation mix of the country and in all possibilities fresh UMPPs which have hit a road block may witness
announcements sooner than later. Hence, preparedness for OEMs shall be of pinnacle importance which will
be discovered through an in-depth research in this dossier. Queries like what OEMs should do given the
changing paradigm , from where the opportunites will come for domestic and international OEMs, what shall
be the impact of DCR and PMP policy and whether OEMs should witness a spurt in JV formulations or
withdrawal from the country and many more apart from the mentioned will find answers in this collective and
holistic market research.

WHAT YOU CAN LEARN ? A SNAPSHOT

• Market Structure of power generation equipment manufacturing in India


• Key Drivers and restraints for BTG equipment market in India
• Evaluating past trends and future outlook of BTG equipment manufacturing in India
• Track of region wise market share of BTG OEMs by volume (MW)
• Track of region wise market share of BTG OEMs by value (INR)
• Track of region wise market share of BTG OEMs by production capacity
• Track of region wise market share of BTG OEMs by manufacturing base
• Track of region wise market share of BTG OEMs by vendor base
• Competitive landscaping of exiting OEMs

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