BAB I

PENDAHULUAN
1.2 Pengumpulan Data
Tabel 1.1 Demand
No Bulan Ke Demand
1 1 1300
2 2 1200
3 3 1200
4 4 1400
 Tabel 1.2 Forecast Simple Average
Actual Forecast by Forecast Tracking
Month CFE MAD MSE MAPE(%) R-square
Data SA Error Signal
1 1300
2 1200 1300 -100 -100 100 10000 0,333333 -1 1
3 1200 1250 -50 -150 75 6250 6,25 -2 1
4 1400 1233,333 166,6666 16,66663 105,5555 13425,92 8,134919 0,157894 0,0937498
5 1350 1275 75 91,66663 97,91666 11475,69 7,490078 0,9361699 0,1459694
6 1290
7 1290
8 1290
9 1290
10 1290
CFE 91,66663
MAD 97,91666
MSE 11475,69
MAPE(%) 7,490078
Trk. Signal 0,9361699
R-square 0,1459694
Tabel 1.3 Forecast Moving Average
Actual Forecast by Forecast Tracking
Month CFE MAD MSE MAPE(%) R-square
Data SA Error Signal
1 1300
2 1200
3 1200
4 1400 1233,333 166,6666 166,6666 166,6666 27777,76 11,90476 1 1
5 1350 1266,667 83,33337 250 125 17361,11 9,038801 2 1
6 1316,667
7 1316,667
8 1316,667
9 1316,667
10 1316,667
CFE 250
MAD 125
MSE 17361,11
MAPE(%) 9,038801
Trk. Signal 2
R-square 1
m=3
 Tabel 1.4 Forecast Weighted Moving Average
Actual Forecast by Forecast Tracking
Month CFE MAD MSE MAPE(%) R-square
Data SA Error Signal
1 1300
2 1200
3 1200
4 1400 1220 180 180 180 32400 12,08571 1 1
5 1350 1300 50 230 115 17450 8,280423 2 1
6 1335
7 1335
8 1335
9 1335
10 1335
CFE 230
MAD 115
MSE 17450
MAPE(%) 8,280423
Trk. Signal 2
R-square 1
m=3
W(1)=0,2
W(2)=0,3
W(3)=0,5
 Tabel 1.5 Forecast Single Exponential Smoothing
Actual Forecast by Forecast Tracking
Month CFE MAD MSE MAPE(%) R-square
Data SA Error Signal
1 1300
2 1200 1300 -100 -100 100 10000 0,333333 -1 1
3 1200 1270 -70 -170 85 7450 7,083333 -2 1
4 1400 1249 151 -19 107 12567 8,31746 -0,17757 0,0537876
5 1350 1294,3 55,69995 36,69995 94,17499 10200,87 7,269576 0,3896995 0,0642625
6 1311,01
7 1311,01
8 1311,01
9 1311,01
10 1311,01
CFE 36,69995
MAD 94,17499
MSE 10200,87
MAPE(%) 7,269576
Trk. Signal 0,3896995
R-square 0,06426245
Alpha=0,3
F(0)=1300
 Tabel 1.6 Forecast Double Exponential Smoothing
Actual Forecast by Forecast Tracking
Month CFE MAD MSE MAPE(%) R-square
Data SA Error Signal
1 1300
2 1200 1300 -100 -100 100 10000 0,333333 -1 1
3 1200 1291 -91 -191 95,5 9140,5 7,958333 -2 1
4 1400 1278,4 121,6 -69,4 104,2 11022,52 8,200793 -0,666027 0,0690337
5 1350 1283,17 66,82996 -2,57007 94,85748 9383,449 7,388186 -0,027094 0,0084724
6 1291,522
7 1291,522
8 1291,522
9 1291,522
10 1291,522
CFE -2,570068
MAD 94,85748
MSE 9383,449
MAPE(%) 7,388186
Trk. Signal -0,027094
R-square 0,00847241
Alpha=0,3
F(0)=1300
F'(0)=1300
 Tabel 1.7 Forecast Linear Regression with Time
Actual Forecast by Forecast Tracking
Month CFE MAD MSE MAPE(%) R-square
Data SA Error Signal
1 1300 1230 70 70 70 4900 5,384615 1 1
2 1200 1260 -60 10 65 4250 5,192307 0,1538462 0,1
3 1200 1290 -90 -80 73,33334 5533,333 5,961538 -1,090909 0,5899991
4 1400 1320 80 0 75 5750 5,899725 0 0,1636364
5 1350 1350 0 0 60 4600 4,71978 0 0,28125
6 1380
7 1410
8 1440
9 1470
10 1500
CFE 0
MAD 60
MSE 4600
MAPE(%) 4,71978
Trk. Signal 0
R-square 0,28125
a=1200
b=30