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growth
forecasts and
development
objectives
53
5
Growth forecasts and
development objectives
Planning ahead for 5.1 Aviation Growth Brisbane Airport has seen continued
strong growth in both domestic
20 years requires Forecasts and international air travel since the
forecasting of passenger approval of its 2009 Master Plan.
demand and airline In the financial year 2007/08,
Introduction Brisbane Airport handled a total of
operations. For Brisbane 17.5 million passengers and some
Aviation business, including the
Airport it also requires an attraction of airlines, passengers and 175,000 aircraft movements.
assessment of the likely freight, is central to Brisbane Airport's In 2012/13, this has grown to 21.6 million
demand for commercial growth and form the basis for this passengers and 219,000 annual aircraft
Master Plan. For this reason, trends movements, equating to an increase of
development in and issues that impact on air travel and 23% and 25% respectively.
on-airport precincts. airline expansion are regularly monitored
to understand and forecast the pattern The growth realised since the
In addition to forecasting, and impacts of growth. 2009 Master Plan is consistent with the
longer-term growth results that Brisbane
BAC’s master planning is This section outlines the current
Airport has achieved in recent decades
directly influenced by its and projected growth of commercial
and this growth reflects the population
airline movements to Brisbane, annual
development objectives. passenger numbers, trends in general
and economic growth of Queensland.
Figure 5.1 shows the historical growth
These are based on the aviation and domestic and international
in passenger travel through Brisbane
air freight.
long-term vision and Airport since 1997. Since this time there
values of the company, have been a number of significant
events that have caused short-term
while also responding to impacts on air travel, including:
the broader objectives
for the city and the state. Figure 5.1: Growth in passengers from 1997 – 2013
25,000
20,000
Passenger (Millions)
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3
/9 /9 /9 /0 /0 /0 2/0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 8/0 /1 /1 /1 /1
96 997 98 99 00 01 0 03 04 05 06 07 09 10 011 12
19 1 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
0
20 20 2 20
Despite the sensitivity of world events The changes in airlines services through Passenger numbers have
that have affected aviation in the Brisbane Airport since the 2009 Master grown 23% in the past
recent past, airline services via Brisbane Plan are outlined in Table 5.1. five years.
Airport have largely been maintained
and in some cases, expanded.
Approach to Forecasting The forecasting approach is to: In the case of domestic travel, the
Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and
A significant number of factors influence »» Review markets and establish trend
Regional Economics (BITRE) publishes
the growth of air travel, including: growth rates for Brisbane
route level data monthly for top
Airport traffic
»» The incomes of travellers – both Australian domestic routes.
the level of income and confidence »» Use quantitative analysis and
review other studies to establish This route level data was used by BAC
that these levels will be maintained
relationships between traffic drivers, to establish trends that inform this
or will grow
such as GDP and traffic demand. Master Plan.
»» The competitiveness (quality,
These are undertaken at a high In addition, capacity expansion by
product attributes) of a destination
‘macro’ level and compared with Australia’s domestic airlines has
compared to alternative destinations
market based, or ‘micro’ reviews an important influence on growth
»» The supply of airline services – forecasts in the short to medium term.
»» Establish the ‘reasonableness’ of
frequency, reliability, quality of
the forecasts by reviewing other Since 1997 BAC has engaged
service and aircraft
long-term forecasts (economic, Tourism Futures International (TFI)
»» Tourism promotion by governments, population and traffic), and to undertake annual and peak
airlines and industry bodies by comparing Brisbane with demand forecasts as a key input to
»» Consumer tastes and available time other airports. BAC's internal budget and business
for travel The ‘macro’ approach establishes processes, overall airport master
»» The process of air travel and the relationships between aggregate planning, major aviation facility
ground component of travel passenger numbers for Brisbane development and analysis of aircraft
Airport and economic factors such noise metrics for Brisbane Airport.
»» Threats such as wars, terrorism or
as Australian and/or Organisation In 2013 BAC engaged TFI to update its
the emergence of pandemics such
for Economic Co-operation and 20-year traffic forecasts for Brisbane
as SARS or avian influenza.
Development GDP, as well as Airport. The following section is based
While all of these types of factors identifying specific markets for on these forecasts.
have an influence on demand, only major tourism generating countries
some can be measured and factored and/ or regions. Growth Forecasts 2013/14
into the type of modelling used in
The ‘micro’ approach provides an to 2033/34
airport forecasting.
additional perspective on growth and Passenger Growth Forecasts
Of the factors listed above, income is more responsive to developments
International
(generally measured through an in specific regions (e.g. the Asian
aggregate variable such as Gross economic crisis). In the near-term (out to 2019/20),
Domestic Product (GDP)) has the it is considered that international
From previous research and passenger movements through
largest influence on growth rates for
comparable studies within Australia Brisbane Airport will sustain an average
international travel.
and overseas, estimates of various 5.4% annualised growth.
In addition to the influence of GDP, elasticities have been established,
developments in domestic and mainly for income and fares. This data For the same period, the independent
international aviation will also influence was used in forecasting passenger body Tourism Forecasting Committee
air travel. traffic by travel type and route. (April 2013), has forecast the number
of international visitor arrivals to
Airline alliances, code sharing, While these elasticity estimates Australia will grow by an average of
privatisation and the advent of new are not derived from Brisbane Airport 3.5% per annum.
aircraft types can have a material data, long term monitoring of this
impact on market outcomes. For these indicates that these estimates can The number of Australians travelling
reasons, a number of approaches have be valuable in preparing medium to overseas is set to grow by an average
been used in constructing the forecasts longer-term forecasts of air traffic of 3% for the same period to achieve a
that underpin this Master Plan. markets, particularly when used in combined annual growth of 6.5%.
conjunction with trend analysis for the Based on these projections, BAC
Because forecasting deals with many
specific market. forecasts indicate that by 2033/34,
uncertainties, BAC also considers lower
and higher growth scenarios to assess some 11.7 million passengers will pass
the sensitivity of its forecasts. through the International T1 annually.
45,000
Actual data Forecast data
40,000
Passengers (’000s)
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
8 9 0 1 12 13 14 5 6 7 18 19 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4
/0 /0 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /3 /3 /3 /3 /3
07 008 09 10 11/ 012/ 013/ 14 15 16 17/ 018/ 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
20 2 20 20 20 2 2 20 20 20 20 2 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
350
Actual data Forecast data
300
Movements (’000s)
250
200
150
100
50
0
8 9 0 1 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4
/0 /0 /1 /1 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /3 /3 /3 /3 /3
07 008 09 10 11/ 012/ 013/ 014/ 015/ 016/ 017/ 018/ 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
20 2 20 20 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
the rollout of new technology aircraft »» Airbus A350 XWB (Extra Wide aircraft design, including major fuel
including A380 and B787 aircraft. Both Body) which is scheduled to efficiencies, quieter operation, reduced
manufacturers have also commenced commence airline operations during carbon emissions, as well as improved
design of several narrow and widebody the second half of 2014. Several passenger amenity.
aircraft for production in the next five international airlines that service
Forecast Comparisons with
years. Some of these aircraft include: Brisbane have placed orders for
Previous Master Plans
this aircraft
»» Airbus A320 NEO (new engine
Tables 5.2 and 5.3 below compares
option) is set to replace the current »» Boeing B777-800X and B777-900X
passenger growth forecasts and
A320 fleet from 2015 onwards. are new generation wide body
aircraft movement forecasts contained
Qantas has placed orders for aircraft scheduled to commence
in the two most recent Master Plans
this aircraft production in 2017 for delivery in
for Brisbane Airport (2003 and 2009)
2020. As of March 2014 Emirates
»» Boeing 737 Max is set to replace with growth predicted in this 2014
and Etihad have placed orders for
the existing B737 fleets from 2017 Master Plan.
these aircraft.
onwards. Virgin Australia has placed
These aircraft represent significant While there are differences in the
orders for this aircraft
technological advancements in forecasts in the near term, the longer-
50,000
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 /23 /24 5 6 7 8
/2 /2 /2
9 0 31 2 3 4
2/ 3/ 14/ 15/ 16/ 17/ 18/ 19/ 20/ 21/ /2 /2 /3 0/ 1/3 /3 /3
1 1 0 0 22 023 024 025 026 027 028 029 03 03 032 033
20 20 20 20 2 2 20 20 20 20
20 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Objective 2: Ensure the timely Objective 3: Deliver innovative, Objective 4: Develop relationships
delivery of new and improved efficient and continuous airport to optimise overall operational
airport capacity services where customer service is at performance
the core of airport operations
The intent in the 2014 Master Plan There are many organisations which
is to continue to increase airport Quality, efficiency and innovation jointly contribute to the efficient operation
capacity by investing in an integrated influence how the airport will perform of Brisbane Airport including
and carefully staged program of as a service provider. Convenient, safe airlines, aviation support providers,
development for the airfield (runways, and reliable journeys for passengers, government agencies and regulators.
taxiways and aprons), terminals, as well as the efficient transit of As growth continues, pressure on
buildings, aviation support facilities and freight through Brisbane Airport are existing infrastructure will occur
other infrastructure. key outcomes of smooth facilitation until new capacity is operationally
processes in the terminals. ready. Fundamental to optimising
For over a decade, a range of shared
the performance of existing runways
forums on infrastructure and capacity Within this Master Plan, innovation
and terminal areas is for key industry
provision have paved the way for and continuous improvements in
groups to work together to identify,
more productive communication on terminal and airfield design, growing
develop and implement opportunities
infrastructure development throughout the terminal space at the right time,
to improve efficiency while continuing
SEQ. Awareness of the interface improved processes and increased
to prioritise safe and secure operations.
between capacity provision on and automation, are key opportunities to
off the airport is both a current and enable the achievement of stakeholder Industry participation in programs to
future priority. satisfaction with services. Leading better manage peak hour demand
edge systems and technologies will and opportunities to enhance
Availability of critical assets to operate
help to facilitate aircraft arrivals and airport capacity without additional
the airport and meet the demands of
departures in 24/7 operations and infrastructure are key priorities for BAC
aviation and regional growth is essential.
streamline passenger processing, in this master planning period.
For BAC, achieving sustainable and
freight and baggage handling.
responsible growth on-airport means The provision of adequate terminal
ensuring that new and improved capacity is also vital to accommodate
operating capacity is available to a growing number of airline arrivals
maintain business continuity and satisfy and departures, along with more
demand. However, identifying ways to efficient processes for check-in,
maximise the airport’s current capacity baggage handling, security, customs,
is also important. quarantine and immigration. Close
relationships with the airlines, ground
A consistent and sustained asset
support providers, border agencies and
maintenance program, the use of
law enforcement are vital to achieve
new technologies and continuous
these goals.
improvement in processes and
front-line skills, allows BAC to more
effectively manage the pace of growth
on-airport.