Volume 1, Issue 3 November 2000

Using CUSUM Charts for Small Shifts

By Keith M. Bower, M.S.

Abstract

In order to monitor a process, quality practitioners frequently use Shewhart control charts (e.g. X –R, P-charts, etc.), so
named after the pioneering work of Dr. Walter Shewhart1. It can be shown that if there are sharp, intermittent changes to a
process, these types of charts are highly effective. However, if one is interested in a small, sustained shift in a process, other
types of control charts may be preferred, for example the Cu-
Figure 1 mulative Sum (CUSUM) chart, originally developed by Page2
(1954). With exponential increases, an Exponentially Weighted
Moving Average (EWMA) chart may be appropriate; for an ex-
ample see Bower3 (2000).

The CUSUM chart

Though CUSUM charts have been well researched and devel-

oped, it is true that many quality practitioners do not use them,
even though there may be justifiable reasons to make use of
this technique for their process. Possibly this may be due to a
lack of instruction on CUSUM charts in many classes on SPC.
In practice, however, I find that many of these same quality
practitioners play the game of golf; hence they are in fact already well versed in the technique behind CUSUM charts.

In essence, for each hole in a round of golf, there are a specified number of times in which one should strike the ball, until it
eventually drops into the hole. For example, on a par 4, if you strike the ball 4 times and it falls into the cup, then you held par.
If you were able to do this task with only three shots (a “birdie”) then you are “1 under par” hence your cumulative sum is -1.
This is continued throughout the course, the ultimate winner therefore having the lowest CUSUM.

Picture a golfer who is holding par for the first 13 holes, then suddenly hits form and has five successive birdies towards the
end of the round. The final CUSUM is therefore –5, though from viewing a CUSUM chart it would be clear to see when the
“process” shifted.

Example Figure 2

Consider the following simulated manufacturing process involving a drill

press, where we may reasonably estimate the process mean to be 25
mm with a standard deviation of 2 mm. Currently, this process is being
monitored by obtaining rational subgroups of size 5 at regular intervals,
and that these selected parts are measured using an acceptable mea-
suring system.

We shall firstly investigate this process using the traditional X –R method.

As is shown in Figure 1, the process appears to be in statistical control,
however when looking at the associated CUSUM chart in Figure 2, one
can see that the averages for each subgroup appear to increase over
continued on page 8
 2

Executive Director’s Corner ΣXTRAOrdinary Sense

By Lynda Williams
PUBLISHED BY
International Society of Six Sigma
Dear ISSSP Members, Professionals

First, I’d like to extend a warm welcome to the nearly 1,000 new members who 7678 East Greenway Road Scotts-
joined ISSSP in March and April. I’m sure you will find our Society to be a valuable dale, AZ 85260
resource.
1-480-368-7083 1-877-9-ISSSP-
1
In Scottsdale, Arizona where ISSSP is headquartered, summer is quickly approach-
Fax 1-775-206-2989
ing. Traditionally in the “Valley of the Sun,” warmer temperatures go hand-in-
hand with a slower pace. Families escape the heat of the desert and head to the Web site: http://www.isssp.org
California beaches or to the mountains in northern Arizona. At ISSSP, just the
opposite is true. This summer, we will be working feverishly to expand our website
Editor-in-Chief: Heather Redinius
and online services. The Resource Center will include technical papers and ar-
Editor@isssp.org
ticles on relevant Six Sigma issues. Our Provider Directory will continue to grow,
offering you information on the many companies and services that support Six
Executive Director: Lynda Williams
Sigma. Our Six Sigma Store will provide Six Sigma books, training materials, and Lynda@isssp.org
ISSSP merchandise. The weekly Focused Sessions are growing each week, and
we are regularly maxing-out the capacity of this online forum. Over the next few Membership Director: Edna Cribb
weeks, we will be looking at ways to expand this member benefit. Edna@isssp.org

We are also gearing up for our second annual Six Sigma Leadership Conference, Creative Director: Heather Redinius
which will feature some of the best and most notable leaders in Six Sigma. Mark Heather@isssp.org
your calendars – The Leadership Conference will be October 1-3, 2001 in Scotts-
dale, Arizona. You won’t want to miss this flagship event.
ΣXTRAOrdinary Sense is the official
publication of the International Society of
As always, thank you for your membership in ISSSP. I hope you enjoy this issue of
Six Sigma Professionals. All rights re-
ExtraOrdinary Sense. served.

Sincerely, No part of this publication may be re-

produced or transmitted in any form or
Lynda Williams by any means, electronic or mechanical,
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formation storage or retrieval system,
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tors.

GET THE MOST FROM YOUR ISSSP MEMBERSHIP...

♦ Exchange information in the ISSSP Discussion Forum Submissions
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professional recruitment, and reserves the
right to ban individuals who abuse mem-
 3

ASQ & Six Sigma Academy Dissolve Alliance

An announcement from ASQ Chairman, Ron Asbury
Changes in leadership and direction at the Six Sigma Academy have led to an agreement to dissolve the
alliance we have had with them for the past two years. This is not an ill-will breakup, just a mutual agreement
that the interests of both organizations are best served individually. In the short run, there won’t be any
apparent difference.

Our agreement with the Academy provides for us to finish the work and events we’ve advertised under the
Alliance license. For public training this could carry us through June of next year. The end of the alliance
does not signal the end of ASQ’s efforts to offer Six Sigma training and company deployments to our mem-
bers and customers. ASQ has everything we need to continue our work. We have developed our own
programs for training executives, Champions, and Black Belts. We have our own instructional staff, and our
materials. Our capable salesforce and support team are in place and give us every reason to believe that
we’ll be successful going forward.

In the months ahead, you will see the transition form alliance offerings to ASQ offerings. If asked if the
alliance still exists, it’s ok to say no, the alliance has been dissolved so ASQ and the Six Sigma Academy can
pursue their interests independently. We will finish the work we started under the alliance and go forward with
ASQ offerings. We are not making a public announcement of the demise of the alliance, believing it will only
confuse people who may wonder why they continue to see alliance offerings advertised. But, I wanted you to
have the inside story.

ISSSP Website Tech Tips

Do you have questions about ISSSP’s Member Forum, the Conference Center, or other features of your virtual organiza-
tion? Have a tip that will help your fellow members get the most out of ISSSP? In this and future issues of ΣXTRAOrdinary
Sense, we’ll answer questions and share member suggestions.
Each week ISSSP will present a Focused Session on a Six Sigma topic. Focused Sessions are live webcasts and are
FREE to ISSSP members! These webcasts provide powerful opportunities to expand your Six Sigma knowledge. Get your
Six Sigma team together and join us as we continue to pave the way to a greater understanding of this breakthrough method-
ology!

To access the ISSSP Focused Sessions, follow the steps below:

1. Go to www.isssp.org and Click on “Member Access” in the top right corner of the screen
2. Enter your assigned Username and Password
3. A hyperlink to the web seminar room (Placeware) and description will be listed on the Welcome Page.
4. Click on the hyperlink.
5. This will take you to the web seminar room. The meeting key and session ID will already appear in the box.
6. Click on “Enter”
7. Click on “Open Audience Console”
8. You have successfully entered the web seminar room
9. To access the audio portion of the seminar, dial the number listed on the Welcome Page of the ISSSP website.
(Please note: Long distance charges will apply)

Check the online Calendar of Events for details on upcoming sessions!

If you need further assistance logging into an ISSSP Focused Session, please contact Focus@isssp.org or call 877-9-
ISSSP-1.

Be sure to keep your eyes open for ISSSP’s summer Focused Session series. You don’t want to miss what ISSSP has
in store for you and your Six Sigma growth!
 4
Ford Takes Six Sigma Seriously
By Heather Redinius
Ford CEO, Jacques Nasser, recently attended Ford’s first-ever Con-
sumer Driven Six Sigma Black Belt Certification Dinner. In a letter to
Ford employees, Nasser stated, “As I looked at how much these new
Black Belts have accomplished, it was easy to understand the enthusi-
asm in the room.”
Ford has trained more than 1,900 Black Belts with 215 projects com-
pleted last year. These Six Sigma projects saved Ford $52 million last
year and Nasser expects to see those savings increase to more than
$200 million over the next two years. He stated, “More importantly,
these projects made a real difference to our customers by eliminating
high priority concerns and increasing satisfaction.” In addition to its
Black Belts, Ford has trained approximately 2,000 Green Belts. Ford
hopes to have nearly all of its employees trained by 2004.
One of the projects recently completed by a Six Sigma project team
addressed customer concerns about the difficulties in closing the hood
on the Ford Mustang. This project team worked with engineers and
assemblers to completely eliminate the defect. Needless to say, Ford
has not received a single complaint.
It’s clear that Ford is taking its Six Sigma initiative seriously. Nasser
said, “Consumer Driven 6-Sigma is a critical long-term strategy. We
will use it to achieve our goal of best-in-class customer satisfaction by
2004.” He went on to say, “This year, it will help us accomplish our 0/
5/500 customer satisfaction goal -- zero recall mindset and achieving
five incremental points of customer satisfaction by eliminating 500
Things Gone Wrong. We are now focused on the Top 25 issues that
customers have told us they care about most.”
This is an important year for Ford. It must deliver what it promised to
its customers and shareholders. Nasser is convinced that Consumer
Driven Six Sigma is the only way to do that.
Six Sigma Resource
Directories Available on
ISSSP Website
ISSSP recently compiled a list of Six Sigma Providers
and Six Sigma Companies. These directories are avail-
able in the Resource Center in the Member Access
portion of the ISSSP website. Check to see if your
company is listed! If its not, fill out the company regis-
tration form on the ISSSP website to submit your com-
pany and gain international exposure for your Six Sigma
teams.
Six Sigma Terminology
E’s...
Effect The variation in the output caused by a
change in an input
Entitlement The best, potential performance of a
process, based on the current design
Epsilon Squared Sum-of-squares (effect) / Sum-
of-squares (total)
Error Any deviation from the intended process
EVOP Method employing 22 or 23 factorials for im-
provement in production mode
Experimental Error The variation in data left over
after all significant sources of variability have been
accounted for
F’s...
Factor An input of interest in an experiment
Factor Input variable being studied in an experi-
ment or ANOVA
Failure Effect The way a failure impacts the cus-
tomer
Failure Mode The manner in which the process
could potentially fail to meet the process require-
ments
Fits The expected value of a model
Fits The predicted values of the output at a specific
set of input conditions
Focus of Six Sigma Y = f(x)
F-Ratio A statistic consisting of one variance di-
vided by another
Full Model The best-fit predictive equation using
all of the factors and interactions in an experiment
Full-Factorial Experiment An experiment that
examines the effect of all possible combinations of
factors and levels
 5

Call for Papers

A central feature of this news-
letter will be articles written by
ISSSP members. If you would
like to write an article for ISSSP
or if you have one prepared you’d
like us to consider, please submit
ASI
... a true
a query letter in accordance with
the following guidelines: leader on
1.

2.
Introduction of topic in
half page or less.
Description of profes-
quality
sional/academic experi-
ence. Please note any
writing experience.
movement
3. Length of time required to
write the article.
4. Length of the article. Es-
Design for Six Sigma (DFSS)
timate of the number of
words.
Six Sigma
5. Submit query letter to
Editor@isssp.org.

Robust Engineering

Taguchi Methods
ISSSP’s editorial staff will re-
spond within 5 – 10 business
Quality Function Deployment (QFD)
days.

TRIZ (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving)

Statistical Process Control (SPC)

Leadership

Management

Get Involved!
ASI Authors' Recent Leadership
Become a Corporate Sponsor, visit
Membership Information
on our website – www.isssp.org

Test Your Six Sigma

Knowledge Today!

Visit us at: www.amsup.com Consulting - Training

www.isssp.org 1-800-462-4500 Software - Publications
 6

Notable Quotables
On the Member Challenge Question:

“I think, the weekly challenge questions

is a good effort. It encourages member
participation. The questions, I feel, could
also fit in a “Test your six-sigma Knowl-
edge” kind of questionnaire that could
be used by Sixsigma Pro’s or would-be’s
for
self assessment/refresher/fun.”

“That was the point of view I had when

answering the question. However, if your
decision is final and the answer is still
incorrect I will take this as a learning ex-
perience and add these tools to my
toolbox for selecting projects in the fu-
ture. Thank You.

P.S. Please keep up your excellent job

with the ISSSP Web Site. It is very use-
ful, is fun, has a lot of interesting infor-
mation and a lot of material to do our
jobs easier. I wish a lot more people
would participate in it.”

“Thank you for coordinating this weekly

contest. It aids me a great deal in my
learning of 6-Sigma fundamentals and
the finer points.”

On the Focused Sessions:

“This Focused Session was very good!

Having the handouts on the web during
the session was also wonderful. I printed
them off and made notes as the
session went.”

“I enjoyed the Transactional presenta-

tion, and find that these presentations
are very useful.”

“The presentation material in your fo-

cused sessions are excellent!Is there
any way I can have the presentations
emailed to me so I may not miss this
golden opportunity to learn more about
Six Sigma? Thank you.”

“The site’s content, format and the Fo-

cussed Sessions are great. I am enjoy-
ing the site a LOT. And it is useful for
the job too. I am suggesting to our Cor-
porate fellows to sponsor your site. I
hope they do it. Congratulations for your
excellent job.”
 7

New Book Announcement &

Review
The Power of Six Sigma
Subir Chowdhury. Dearborn, $17.95

Review By PublishersWeekly.com:

using a format similar to that in Spen-

cer Johnson’s Who Moved My
Cheese?, Chowdhury (Management
21C) has created a fictional story that exemplifies the benefits
of the business philosophy called Six Sigma. In Chowdhury’s
rendering, Joe, a middle-aged manager unexpectedly laid off
from his position at a fast-food franchise company, is depressed
and uncertain about his next move. He calls Larry, an old friend
and former co-worker, whose career is thriving. Over lunch,
Larry explains how he has practiced Six Sigma, both to ad-
vance his career and to increase profits for his employer, and
he teaches the program’s basics to an initially skeptical, then
wildly enthusiastic Joe. At the crux of this strategic program,
advanced by GE’s Jack Welch and instituted at many other
major corporations, is a renewed focus on eliminating mis-
takes, waste and rework. Six Sigma is based on designated
teams (“people power”) that focus solely on solving a specific
problem (“process power”), which may lead to efficiencies that
please consumers and, by saving the company money, en-
hance the bottom line. What distinguishes Six Sigma from
other popular quality management techniques, such as Total
Quality Management and ISO9000, is that each team has a
clear goal; moreover, employees benefit because companies
usually tie a financial incentive to a team’s goal. While
Chowdhury’s is not the first book about Six Sigma, what makes
his stand out is its engaging and simple approach intended for
a broad audience, from the assembly line worker to middle
managers and CEO’s of smaller companies. (Apr.)

Forecast: Given the attention paid to Six Sigma, and Dearborn’s

ambitious first printing, this book has a reasonable chance of
hitting business bestseller lists if Dearborn can jump-start word-
of-mouth and find ways to encourage managers to make the
book required reading for employees.

New Product and

Software Review
Do you have a new product or software
you would like to announce? Would you
like to submit a review of a new product
or software you are currently using? ISSSP
wants to hear about it! Email your que-
ries to Editor@isssp.org.
 8

continued from page 1

the final 10 subgroups. The increasing slope, representing the cumulative devia- Calendar
tions from the target value of 25, exhibits this. Note that the target value choice is
critical for a useful application of a CUSUM chart. of Events
Figure 3 Importantly, a
small increase (of Train-The-Trainer II
σ/2 = 1 mm) was July 9-13, 2001
introduced for the Detroit, Michigan
final 10 subgroups.
Consider, for in- Train-The-Trainer III
stance, a small ob- October 22-26, 2001
ject becoming at- Scottsdale, Arizona
tached to the drill.
This occurrence ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○
was clearly cap-
tured by the CUSUM chart in Figure 2, but not by the traditional X –R chart in
Focused Session
Figure 1. It is possible to include additional rules to signal for an out of control May 17, 2001
situation, and the 2 out of 3 rule is violated for the 25th subgroup (unshown). It Product Demonstration:
should be noted that increasing the number of tests performed would necessarily FluidEnterprise™
increase the false alarm rate. For more information see Champ and Woodall4 Amy Stapleton,
(1987). ClearReason

To obtain further information on CUSUM charting, including a discussion of upper Focused Session
and lower CUSUM scores, the interested reader is referred to Montgomery5 (2000) May 24, 2001
and the references therein. For the purpose of this article, merely note the in- Product Demonstration:
crease in the CUSUM around the 20th subgroup. DFSS Using Crystal Ball
Professional™
Estimating Shift Sizes Tim Howard,
Decisioneering
Another attractive feature of CUSUM charts is the ability to roughly estimate the
size of the process shift. For example, one would note that from the 19th to the 30th ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○
subgroup, the CUSUM increases by roughly 0.9mm as shown in the results from
the downloadable macro in Figure 3 (for more information on obtaining this macro,
see reference 6). In fact, this is relatively close to the actual shift size of 1 mm. Six Sigma Strategy
& Culture: A Roadmap
In essence therefore, if one is interested in detecting a small and sustained shift in for Success
a process, a CUSUM chart is a useful vehicle to obtain such process knowledge. It Best Practices in Pharma-
is the hope of the author that the interested reader may seek further study in this ceutical & Health
interesting area of control chart methodology. Sciences
Marcus Evans
Keith M. Bower has an M.S. in Quality Management and Productivity from the June 18-20, 2001
University of Iowa, and is a Technical Training Specialist with Minitab, Inc. Philadelphia, Pennsylva-
nia
References: ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○

1. Shewhart, W.A., Economic Control of Quality of Manufactured Product,

Van Nostrand-Reinhold, NY, (1931).
2. Page, E.S., Continuous Inspection Schemes, Biometrika, 41, (1954). ISSSP Six Sigma
3. Bower, K.M., Using Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) Leadership
Charts, Asia Pacific Process Engineer, (October 2000). Conference
4. Champ, C.W. and Woodall, W.H., Exact Results for Shewhart Control Fall 2001
Charts with Supplementary Runs Rules, Technometrics, 29, (1987). Detailed Information
5. Montgomery, D.C., Introduction to Statistical Quality Control, 4th edition, Available Soon @
John Wiley & Sons (2000). www.isssp.org
6. http://www.minitab.com/support/macros
9
 10

ISSSP Hosts Six Sigma Symposium in San Francisco

ISSSP hosted its second Six Sigma Symposium, April 24-26, in San Francisco, California, to an enthusiastic group of sev-
enty-five Six Sigma professionals. Those in attendance participated in interactive sessions and general sessions covering
both technical and non-technical skills. Here is a sampling of topics presented:

Opportunity Counting
Listening: The Essential Skill
Making Recommendations Real by Implementing a Control Structure
Lean Six Sigma
Early Experiences in a Transactional Business
Successful Six Sigma Deployment
Breakthrough Inventory Reduction
Six Sigma Team Training Model
Use of Cause & Effect Matrix for Project Selection
Electronic Device Performance: A Case Study of Process Capability
The Teachable Hour
A Practitioner’s Guide to Designing & Analyzing Attribute DOE’s
Application of Measurement System and Process Capability in Specification and Tooling
The 1.5 Sigma Shift

Six Sigma Symposia provide Master Black Belts, Black Belts, and Green Belts the opportunity to share best practices and
project methods. Participants learn about recent advancements in Six Sigma from the experiences of Six Sigma leaders and
their peers.

The 2002 Symposium schedule will be available in July 2002.

Quotes:

The speakers were knowledgeable and motivated

By interacting with other practitioners, I learned that other companies are facing
many of the same problems I am facing
The overall event organization was excellent
I learned several new tools that are easy to use
There was a good blending of topics, both technical and managerial
I learned what I need to do to keep Six Sigma going

Companies in Attendance

Sony
Genentech
International Truck and Engine Company
Huntsman
Merck
G. Loomis
Honeywell
Mazda
American Express
PACCAR
Ceredian
Sonic Innovations
Seagate
DuPont
Space Systems Loral
Toshiba
Seagate
GE
Kaiser Aluminum