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OPINION 11
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Budget report card resources and for real growth in India that has increas-
ingly been driven by cost-cutting rather than pro-
ductivity increases.
Good on legislative reforms, patchy on execution Meanwhile, the Budget exercise will take place
amid little or no clarity about several key ingredients.
L
ast year’s Union Budget was hailed for its commitment to fiscal prudence, First of all, actual growth is uncertain, since the Central
especially as the finance minister had to sew a Budget around the recom- Statistics Office’s Advance Estimates of GDP are based
mendations of the 14th Finance Commission, which allocated a significantly largely on numbers from the months before demon-
etisation. Secondly, actual revenue next year is a bit of
higher proportion of resources to the states. But the Budget also marked a
a mystery because of the effects of the introduction of
clear shift in the Narendra Modi-led government’s priorities — bijli, sadak, cooking gas GST. Even tax revenue this year has been a bit of a puz-
and rural housing received much attention. It was clear that the government was lin- zle, and it is not clear what may have caused some of
ing itself up for the elections in 2019 and focussing on welfare schemes that most affect- the large increases over last year, and whether they are
ed the poor, as against the so-called neo-middle class. The implementation of the key sustainable. Thirdly, the government’s numbers them-
Budget promises shows a clear trend. Barring a few exceptions, the government has per- selves will be the object of much confusion thanks to
the long-overdue phasing out of the Plan/non-Plan
formed better when it came to the promises that required legislative changes as against
distinction for expenditure.
those that required changes on the ground, where the central government had to Thus Mr Jaitley will have to resist many pressures
coordinate and work with the states. This is true despite the overwhelming sense that from various quarters. His boss may want larger and
legislative work has suffered immensely due to parliamentary logjams — for instance, more spectacular populist packages in the Budget,
Mr Trump moves quickly up policy decisions are being made in India. We may tragedy that was demonetisation.
not like to hear it, but our reputation as a destination Clearly, Mr Jaitley and his team have another repair
for investment has taken a terrible hit. We may feel the job to do. And this year, their constraints will be even
time. Mr Jaitley must hold the fiscal line. That’s the
one number everyone will look to see.
But the biggest task is to restore the narrative once
Opportunities for India in emerging DC worldview need to give a respectful hearing to messianic speech- tighter. Not only has the PM maintained his populist again. The Budget will have to be credible, reformist
es from various government functionaries about black line — as was clear from his New Year’s Eve address — and forward-looking. Its numbers will have to add
D
onald J Trump’s tumultuous first week as President of the United States money and the digital future; the rest of the world feels but we are closer to the crucial UP assembly election up, and its policy choices mature. If not, the damage
suggests that he has every intention of moving swiftly to implement the no such obligation. and also to the start of the central government’s re- to India’s reputation from demonetisation cannot
agenda that he had outlined — albeit sketchily — on the campaign trail. For Mr Jaitley, this will no doubt be a familiar posi- election campaign. The fiscal consolidation path will even begin to be repaired.
tion. By this time last year, expectations from the really begin to bite this coming year, when the deficit-
He has signed a series of executive orders aimed primarily at upending Narendra Modi government were at the lowest they to-GDP ratio is supposed to go down to three per cent. m.s.sharma@gmail.com
his predecessor’s agenda; the first began to scale back parts of Barack Obama’s health had been. Its economic policy seemed incoherent, The long bonanza caused by the decline in crude oil Twitter: @mihirssharma
care legislation and others focused on trade and environmental decisions, such as the
order to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Protests erupted at major
American airports over the weekend after President Trump also essentially banned
immigration by Muslims from seven countries in West Asia and North Africa. Although
a federal court has provided a temporary stay on the ban on Saturday, it is clear that
Mr Trump intends a radical shift in the US’ outlook and approach, and his priorities
Jallikattu: Ecological roots cut
deserve to be taken seriously.
ow that the dust has settled on Marina beach, “bulls” from the list but the Supreme Court inter- plea has been that cruelty is not inherent in the sport
N
On international affairs in particular, it is possible to discern the outlines of a
Trump worldview. First, China is now seen as a strategic and economic rival above all where young protesters had camped to vened. In May 2014, the court ruled that jallikattu, and can be regulated. The proponents have never
demand that the ban on jallikattu — a tradi- bull-racing and other such activities were indeed ever articulated the ecological purpose of the sport as
else. It is not clear whether this means that security issues will be bargained away for
tional sport of bull jostling — be lifted, let’s discuss the cruel to animals and upheld the notification ban- this would require substantiation.
economic concessions or vice versa, but it is certain that the era in which the US did larger and more serious issue of culture, tradition ning the “sport”. Then look at the ground facts. Today, indigenous
not explicitly seek to control China’s rise is over. Second, Russia is no longer an ene- and their practice in the modern world. For a prac- But since then, each Pongal — the festival of har- domestic animals across the country stand close to
my. Whatever the reasons that may be given for this — some more lurid than others tising environmentalist (like me), this is a contentious vest when jallikattu is organised — the rumble of dis- extinction. There is a compelling reason to argue that
— it is clear that much of Mr Trump’s most hard-line supporters view Russia as a civil- and highly polarising issue. There is no doubt that tra- sension has been growing. The Union government has these species must be conserved, protected and bred.
isational ally, part of the West with common interests against political Islam and the ditional cultures had empathy with kept the fires burning by “promising” They are local and so, have the ability to cope with
ecology — people had learnt to live amendment to the PCA Act. This adverse ecological conditions. Today, Indian tradi-
rise of China. And thus the third pillar, which will be an increased rhetorical pitch about
with nature, optimise its resources year, all hell broke loose as thousands tional cattle breeds are the basis of economic pros-
the threat posed by radical Islamists. The immigration ban is the first part of this; but and rationalise its use during scarci- of youth — not illiterate and media- perity in other countries. Africa breeds our Sahiwal;
it is unclear what actual on-the-ground measures Mr Trump could possibly have in ty. This “sustainable use” was woven ignored farmers — plugged into Brazil our Nelore; even the American beef cattle comes
mind to, for example, “destroy ISIS”, as he has repeatedly promised. Alienating the Iraqi into rituals, practices and beliefs, and social media and spilled onto the from India’s Brahman. But we have taken fancy to
government, the primary ground force opposing ISIS, is not a promising first step in became part of cultures. But times beach in Chennai and roads in other foreign breeds like Jersey and Holstein Friesian.
that direction. Finally, there is trade. A Trump administration will move decisively away change, and so do the approaches cities of Tamil Nadu. The gathering The 19th Livestock Census released in 2012 shows
and sensibilities of society. How do was enough to push the state govern- this decline. Between 2007 and 2012, there was a 19
from multilateral and global trade negotiations towards bilateral trade deals where the
traditions live on? Should they? Or, ment to act. Overnight, it promulgat- per cent reduction in indigenous male cattle (bulls)
US’ weight in individual trading relationships can be more effectively deployed. should the focus be on the reasons ed an ordinance and enacted it into a and a parallel 20 per cent increase in exotic breeds of
For India, the most weighty consequence of Mr Trump’s apparent determination why we did what we did, and not on law to ensure that bulls are not barred male and female cattle. When compared to the pre-
to put his stated agenda into practice will be the effect on skilled immigration, such the ritual that has only become sym- DOWN TO EARTH from being used for rural sport. But vious census in 2003, the loss is 65 per cent in indige-
as of software engineers. While many of Mr Trump’s initial statements have focused bolic now? the moot question remains — is this nous milch cattle. The case is the same in Tamil
on migration from Central America or of lower-skilled migrants, his appointments — I ask this when the country is SUNITA NARAIN an ecologically important tradition Nadu. So, it would be fair to say there is absolutely no
learning (and definitely mispro- or just blood sport? evidence to show that jallikattu has aided in the con-
including the hardline anti-H-1B senator Jeff Sessions for Attorney General — and
nouncing) a new word, jallikattu. The Tamils practise Proponents say jallikattu is the only way to pre- servation of indigenous breeds, other than saying
the instincts of his advisors, including his chief advisor Steve Bannon, indicate that this tradition and say it is different from the bull- serve the state’s traditional Kangayam species of bull. that the species that could have gone extinct is sur-
H-1B reform is more than likely. Yet, for India, there are possibilities, too. A more stri- fighting of Spain. They do not kill the bull, only play They say through this sport, the stud bull’s powers are viving by the skin of its horns.
dent counter-terrorism perspective from the US will open up possibilities for coop- with it by removing bundles of gold and money tied demonstrated and it is selected for conservation. This is not to argue against jallikattu, but to argue
eration with India. A renewed focus on China’s rise means that security and to its horns. The skill is tested in how the man — it’s They go as far as saying that if the sport is banned, that if the tradition has to be kept alive in spirit, then
geostrategic engagement with the US can be stepped up — that was certainly the always a man — removes the money and, in the there will be no “value” in keeping the bull; it will be its proponents must muster courage to walk the talk.
process, tames the raging bull. This is why it is a slaughtered and the ratio of cow to bull will further Much more needs to be done to protect and ensure
implication of much of what new Defense Secretary James Mattis said during his
sport, say animal rights activists, who had success- decline. the continuation and use of indigenous breeds, which
confirmation hearings. While its priorities may be clear, the Trump administration fully taken the issue to the Union government. In The question is whether this ecological purpose are vital for the country’s livestock economy. This is
is nevertheless unburdened by specific policy proposals in many areas, such as 2011, the then environment minister, Jairam Ramesh, has been understood. The answer is a sad no. First, where the catch lies. This is the horn that matters.
counter-terrorism. This would be an opportune moment for New Delhi to reach out agreed to include “bull” in the list of animals that were let’s look at the arguments made in the Supreme
itself with ideas as to how cooperation can be stepped up, so it can help shape the banned for use in training or exhibition under the Court by the state government or even the Union The writer is at the Centre for Science and Environment
agenda in Washington. Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (PCA) Act, 1960. government. The only reason to seek continuation of sunita@cseindia.org
His successor, Prakash Javadekar, wanted to remove the sport has been “culture” or “tradition”, and the Twitter: @sunitanar