1/7/2018 Why For Stock Markets Bulls, Monday Could Be "The Most Important Day" | Zero Hedge

Why For Stock Markets Bulls, Monday Could Be "The Most Important Day"

by Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/06/2018 - 21:30

The holiday-shortened first week of 2018 was the best start to a year for Nasdaq since 2004 with all major indices up every trading day of the year so far.

Saudi Arabia: market profile HKTDC

Day Trading: 15 Secrets to Success - Capital at risk Guardian Stockbrokers

Between the last week of December and the first week in January, Bloomberg reports that the S&P 500 has reversed direction every year since 2011.
 

A possible explanation is the expiration of government policies on Dec. 31.

After 4 trading days, the S&P 500 is up 2.6% year-to-date - that is the best start to a year for the S&P since 2006 (and would have been the best weekly gain
in 2017).
Critically though, as Ryan Detrick notes, "since 1950, when the first 5 days are up over 2%, the S&P 500 is higher for the year 15 out of 15 times with an
average return of +18.6%. "
So, as Detrick concludes, "if you are bullish, Monday is a big day."
Of course, January is another seasonally strong month, with an average total return of +1.2% (+1.1% price return) since 1928. A positive January has
historically led to a positive year 86% of the time (80% on a price return basis), with an average total return of +17% (+13% price return). A down January has
led to a negative year 47% of the time (56% on a price return basis) with an average total return of +2% (-1% price return).

“This doesn’t mean the index will go straight up from here, but the economic fundamentals are strong enough to support the stocks,” said Phil
Orlando, chief equity strategist at Federated Investors.
“Corporate earnings growth has been solid in the last nine months, we expect another double-digits in the fourth quarter. The party is going to
continue.”

After setting so many different records last year, SentimentTrader.com's Jason Goepfert  expects 2018 to score even more.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-06/stock-markets-bulls-monday-matters 1/4
1/7/2018 Why For Stock Markets Bulls, Monday Could Be "The Most Important Day" | Zero Hedge
Among them, the major indexes haven’t been more than 5% from a 52-week high for nearly 400 days (more than 450 days if we exclude a single day last
June).

Trending Articles
China's Xi Warns Military: Be Ready For War & "Don't Fear…
In what is being characterized as a rare address to the world’s largest fighting
force, President Xi Jinping on…

Powered By

There were 3 other time periods that matched what we’re seeing now, and after each of them, the S&P 500 declined more than 7% over a period of 30-40 days.
As Bloomberg concludes, long momentum, a strategy that returned the most since 1999 last year, rose the most in more than two years this week.

“It feels like the late phase of a bull market in which investors are capitulating on their reluctance, and joining the party because they cannot
identify any downward catalysts,” said Matthew Litfin, portfolio manager of the Columbia Acorn Fund at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.
“Instead, investors now see lower corporate taxes ahead, global economic growth accelerating, and valuation on ‘post-tax-reform earnings’ that is
palatable.”

And remember, Gary Cohn and David Tepper both told you that stocks are not expensive...

Nope, nothing to see here.

Just ask current Fed Chair Powell...

I think we are actually at a point of encouraging risk-taking, and that should give us pause. Investors really do understand now that we will be
there to prevent serious losses. It is not that it is easy for them to make money but that they have every incentive to take more risk, and they are
doing so. Meanwhile, we look like we are blowing a fixed-income duration bubble right across the credit spectrum that will result in big losses
when rates come up down the road. You can almost say that that is our strategy.

Almost!
 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-06/stock-markets-bulls-monday-matters 2/4
1/7/2018 Why For Stock Markets Bulls, Monday Could Be "The Most Important Day" | Zero Hedge
14803  13 

Fly Abu Dhabi to Mumbai Abu Dhabi to Mumbai

Round Trip $175.27 Guaranteed Low Fares on Booking with
450+ Airlines for 2000+ Destinations. CheapOair.com Cleartrip. Book Now! Cleartrip

Sponsored Stories

Why For Stock Markets Bulls, Lies We Tell Ourselves My eyes look younger every single
Monday Could Be "The Most (ZH) day with this magic trick!
Important Day" (luminousseeing.com)
(ZH)

Sheriff Clarke To Face Trial After US Coal Production Crashes To Fusion GPS Bank Records Handed
Airplane Incident Investigated By FBI Record Low Over; May Shed Light On Payments
(ZH) (ZH) From Russian Embezzler
(ZH)

More Stories You May Like

Americans Are Ditching These Five States In Record Why Germans Are Being Paid To Use Power
Numbers (ZH)
(ZH)

Fusion GPS Bank Records Handed Over; May Shed Trump Cuts The Gordian Knot Of Foreign
Light On Payments From Russian Embezzler Entanglements
(ZH) (ZH)

Mueller Now Probing Ivanka's "Greetings Exchange" US Coal Production Crashes To Record Low
With Russian Lawyer (ZH)
(ZH)

Bridgewater Executive And Family Killed In Costa Rica "Everything Is Overvalued": Public Pensions Face
Plane Crash Dangerous Dilemma In 2018
(ZH) (ZH)

Sheriff Clarke To Face Trial After Airplane Incident Why For Stock Markets Bulls, Monday Could Be "The
Investigated By FBI Most Important Day"
(ZH) (ZH)

Can We Afford Renewable Energy? Lies We Tell Ourselves

(ZH) (ZH)

SPONSORED CONTENT

The Wisdom of Athor Book One

In 1988 a client name Rose came to me with t...
Ad by scribd.com

Discrimination Notice Cookie Policy

Copyright ©2009-2018 ZeroHedge.com/ABC Media, LTD

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-06/stock-markets-bulls-monday-matters 3/4
1/7/2018 Why For Stock Markets Bulls, Monday Could Be "The Most Important Day" | Zero Hedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-06/stock-markets-bulls-monday-matters 4/4