Professional Documents
Culture Documents
[client name deleted]:
1. China claims that it is being encircled. It has given publicity to planting a flag on
the ocean floor. Are we seeing a resurgence of real tension or just a lot of rhetoric ‐
or are these one and the same thing?
ANSWER: We are witnessing heightened rhetoric particularly bellicose rhetoric
directed by China against the United States. But there have been no publicly
reported incidents involving military aircraft or ships so it would be premature to say
that military tensions have risen. The potential is there particularly if China wants to
make a public demonstration. For the moment, however, both sides are managing
the military side carefully. China cut military‐to‐military ties ostensibly because of US
arms sales to Taiwan, this came well before the current war of words.
Since the Taiwan Straits crisis of 1995‐96, the Chinese military has worked overtime
to develop anti‐access/area‐denial capabilities to keep the US Navy out of its self‐
proclaimed sphere of interest known as the “first island chain.” Leaders of the PLA
(People’s Liberation Army) became emboldened as the US became afflicted by a
domestic financial crisis. Major sea exercises were conducted in March‐April to
demonstrate China’s naval prowess.
Then North Korea, China’s ally, sank a South Korean corvette, the Cheonan. This one
incident, over which China had no control, resulted in three major developments:
the fraying South Korea‐US alliance was repaired, US‐Japan military relations were
reaffirmed, and the US Navy began exercising in waters off China. These
developments have unsettled the PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy) and they
have reacted by spewing bellicose rhetoric.
2. And if we look at the rhetoric, is it new, or a new tone?
ANSWER: The tone of China’s rhetoric has sharpened because of Secretary Clinton’s
intervention at the recent ASEAN Regional Forum meeting. But it is mainly coming
for military officials who have made vague threats over planned exercises in the East
China Sea. In March Chinese officials told senior Obama Administration officials that
the South China Sea was a core interest. One explanation for the sharpened rhetoric
was the US counter that the South China Sea was a national interest, and the US
offer to assist in a peaceful settlement. This is a matter of national sovereignty in the
Chinese eyes.
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There are indications that China is reviewing regional reactions to China’s recent
outburst. This may signal a new phase of diplomacy designed to allay regional fears.
3. Is the apparent new US activism on the issue a matter of Obama‐Public Relations,
or a more profound re‐assessment of its place in the region, and/or China's
behaviour? Is this new activism (if we see it as such) a response by the US to a new
assessment of its own interests, or a response to actual requests/worries from
Southeast Asian allies?
US re‐engagement with Southeast Asia is part of a well‐thought out diplomatic
strategy by the Obama Administration. This was signalled by US accession to the
ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, the announcement of an appointment of a
US Ambassador to ASEAN, Secretary Clinton’s attendance at two consecutive ARF
meetings, President Obama’s attendance at the first ASEAN‐US Leaders Meeting and
his forthcoming hosting of the second US‐ASEAN Leaders Meeting.
In a very significant development, the Obama Administration has elevated the
priority it attached to regional multilateral institutions. Up until now China has made
the running, now it will have to sit and compete with the US in the East Asia Summit
(EAS) process. Secretary Clinton will attend the EAS in October and it is likely
President Obama will attend the EAS in 2011.
The Obama Administration has reviewed the legacy of the Bush Administration and
picked on a number of issues to make gains. There is regional concern about China’s
construction of dams on the upper Mekong. Secretary Clinton launched the Lower
Mekong Initiative two years ago and met twice the foreign ministers of the countries
of concern: Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. Second, the Obama
Administration has responded to growing regional concerns about China’s military
transformation and increased assertiveness in the South China Sea.
The Obama Administration’s policy is a result of its own review of how to best secure
US national interests in the region; but it is also in response to pressure from allies
and other regional states. The United States is now using “smart power” to
overcome the deficit caused by China’s “soft power.”
4. Has the US actually enlisted Indonesia, or vice versa, or was it merely coincidence
that Jakarta sent letter to UN demanding new look at South China Sea?
ANSWER: Indonesia’s letter to the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental
Shelf (CLCS) is merely the most recent manifestation of a policy that is well over a
decade old. Indonesia has hosted a series of annual workshops on confidence
building in the South China Sea since 1990. In 1992 China published a map that
seemed to imply it was claiming waters off Indonesia’s Natuna island that are rich in
hydrocarbons. Indonesia reacted with a large scale military exercise.
The 13th May 2009 deadline for submission of claims to the CLCS precipitated a
round of submissions, objections and preliminary statements (to be followed up with
more substantial submissions later). Indonesia acted to ensure that its interests were
tabled.
Quite separately, bilateral relations between the US and Indonesia have been
improving. It was expected that the two countries would declare a strategic
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partnership when President Obama visited. The president has to cancel. One
possible fly in the ointment was continuing congressional restrictions on US
engagement with the Kopassus, the Indonesian Special Forces for alleged human
rights abuses in East Timor. Indonesia has replaced or retired the officials involved.
An entirely new generation is now at the held in Kopassus. Secretary Gates recently
visited Indonesia and restored relations. This was coincident with Secretary Clinton’s
attendance at the ARF meeting. This is another example of “smart power” or what
Secretary Clinton would say is “smart diplomacy.”
5. Is this in any way really about alleged oil and gas?.
ANSWER: The extent of oil and gas reserves in the South China Sea are unknown.
China routinely inflates its estimates when compared to US figures. Even if there
were oil and gas deposits, oil industry specialists believe that they would be quickly
exhausted given the projected economic growth rates of the countries concerned –
China, Indonesia and Vietnam. There is a phenomenon called peak oil. Oil reserves
are no longer able to fuel global economic growth. The future holds out increased
dependence by East Asian economies on oil from the Persian Gulf.
The real issue is China’s rise and the challenge this poses for US primacy. Can the two
great powers management this process peacefully? What is unclear are the
motivations and intentions behind China’s military build‐up and transformation.
Since 1997, when China enunciated its new security concept it has sought to
undermine the network of US alliances and curtail America’s role in East Asia. China’s
attack on “gun boat diplomacy” sounds ironic thirteen year later.