Potentials of Decentralized Energy Supply

with PV Hybrid in Indonesia

ANDRE SUSANTO
andresusanto@gmail.com
http://www.linkedin.com/in/andresusanto

➢ Inspected and audited over 300 villages and remote grid systems
➢ Technical assistance to project developers and product suppliers
to enter the Indonesian market
➢ Provide consulting services to national and international agencies
➢ Assisted in over 40MW of project development in Indonesia (utility
scale, rural electrification, commercial scale and private PPAs)
➢ Designed a modular smart microgrid with mobile payment system
Indonesia’s
Solar PV
Landscape

✓23% renewable energy mix by 2025

✓New reciprocating gas engines (multi-fuel)
installed and many are running on diesel
✓Diverse commercial and legal framework
that allow different business models
HOW BIG IS THE MARKET
Indonesia’s Installed Generation Capacity (2015)

Total Indonesian
Java-Bali and solar PV
Sumatra potential at 10%
penetration
(41GW)
(4.5GW)

Rest of
Indonesia
(4.1 GW)
Indonesia’s Diesel Usage (2015)
Installed
Capacity
(3.2GW)
Oil Based Fuel Consumption for PLN Power
Generation

(5.2 BILLION LITERS)

Peak Load of the Most Expensive Business Units
2018 Peak Load
344 MW, West Nusa 228 MW, East Nusa Tenggara 174 MW, Papua
Tenggara

155 MW, Maluku

2,523 MW, North Sumatra
782 MW, North Sulawesi /
Gorontalo

515 MW, West Kalimantan

776 MW, East Kalimantan

581 MW, Aceh

296 MW, Central Kalimantan

622 MW, South Kalimantan
 Solar PV Potential
SOLAR PV POTENTIAL
PLN Business Unit 2018 Peak Load Production Cost 10% Penetration 5% Penetration
North Sumatra 2,523 MW $ 0.20/kWh 252 MW 126 MW
Aceh 581 MW $ 0.20/kWh 58 MW 29 MW
South Kalimantan 622 MW $ 0.15/kWh 62 MW 31 MW
Central Kalimantan 296 MW $ 0.15/kWh 30 MW 15 MW
East Kalimantan 776 MW $ 0.17/kWh 78 MW 39 MW
West Kalimantan 515 MW $ 0.21/kWh 52 MW 26 MW
North Sulawesi / Gorontalo 782 MW $ 0.18/kWh 78 MW 39 MW
Maluku 155 MW $ 0.24/kWh 16 MW 8 MW
West Nusa Tenggara 344 MW $ 0.19/kWh 34 MW 17 MW
East Nusa Tenggara 228 MW $ 0.25/kWh 23 MW 11 MW
Papua 174 MW $ 0.20/kWh 17 MW 9 MW
TOTAL 700 MW 350 MW
West Nusa Tenggara in Numbers (2014 data)
Peak Load vs Available Generation Energy Sold by PLN
Spare
Generation Rest of
Capacity Indonesia
4% 26.35%

West Nusa
Tenggara
0.65% Java-Bali
73.00%

Peak Load
96%

300 MW of gas power plants are planned to

be operational by 2017
200 MW of additional coal steam power to
150kV 70kV 20kV be operational by 2019
Lombok Only Sumba and Bima All region
256 km (planned) 4,900 km
348,400,000 L of diesel fuel
used to produce 1,306,000,000
kWh of electricity
Indonesia’s Electricity Sector Stakeholders
What’s Indonesia’s overall Hybrid PV market size?
• Below 1GW
• Up to 5GW
• Up to 10GW
• Over 10GW
INDONESIA SOLAR MICROGRIDS
GOVERNMENT FUNDED
INDONESIA:
12,800 UNELECTRIFED VILLAGES
INDONESIA:
12,800 MINIGRIDS?????
NOW WHAT?

ALOR ISLAND:
150,000 PEOPLE
2800 KM2
6 MINIGRIDS (RUN BY THE UTILITY COMPANY)
INDONESIA PV MICROGRIDS BY MEMR
1,755 kWp, 11%
2012
3,400 kWp, 20%

2013
3,275 kWp, 20%
2014

2015
PUE = Productive Use of Energy 5,545 kWp, 33%
SI – Social Institutions 2,650 kWp, 16%
MEMR = Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
2016
INDONESIA PV MICROGRIDS BY MEMR

2016, 97 units, 17% 2012, 117 units, 21%

2012
2013
2014
2015, 141 units, 25%
2015
2016
2013, 119 units, 21%

2014, 87 units, 16%

BUSINESS MODELS APPLICABLE IN INDONESIA
BE
DIFFERENT
THAN THE
REST
B2B WITH PLN

OVER 600 MEDIUM

SIZED ISOLATED
GRIDS AND
THOUSANDS OF
SMALLER SIZES
B2B WITH PLN

CENTRAL
KALIMANTAN
PROVINCE – 9
SEPARATE ISOLATED
GRIDS
GRID
MANAGEMENT
MANAGE PLN’S
GENERATION ASSETS BY
INSTALLING HYBRID
CONTROLLERS AND
REDUCING THEIR FUEL
COST
PRIVATE PPA

MANY PRIVATELY HELD

COMPANIES ARE
OPERATING
THROUGHOUT
INDONESIA WITH HIGH
COST OF ENERGY
PLN PPA

PLN IS NOW WILLING

TO SIGN PPAS FOR
“OFF-GRID” OR
LIMITED GRID AREAS
OFFGRID
ELECTRIFICATION

OFFGRID AREAS ARE

INCREASINGLY
BECOMING THE FOCUS
OF THE INDONESIAN
GOVERNMENT
MEMR Regulation 38/2017
MEMR Regulation 38/2017
Note: “tariff set by applicable laws and
regulations” currently mean approval from
the local government and parliament (DPR-D)

Note: Subsidized means annual viability gap

funding subsidy by the central government.
Up to current non-subsidized PLN rate is VERY
preferred. Anything higher will be scrutinized
SHARED
SAVINGS

A NEW CONCEPT FOR

PLN IS A SHARED
SAVINGS MODEL
Possible Business Models
Business
Stakeholders Contract Type Offtaker
ModelNote: “tariff set by applicable laws and
PLN minigrids Diesel regulations”
PLN PPA – Fuelmean
currently pass approval from
PLN PLN
Replacement through
the local government and parliament (DPR-D)
Small cities City Government
Diesel
PLN, City PPA with City or PLN or
Replacement,
Governments Governments local/district
Water Supply
government
Unelectrified communities Provincial/District MEMR Regulation 38,
government, local contract with
Tariff collection Local communities
communities, nearby local/district/provincial
private companies government
PLN Offgrid PPAs PLN, local
PLN PPA – Fuel pass
government, local Rural electrification PLN
through
communities
Off grid businesses (lumber mills, mines,
Private companies Diesel replacement Private PPA Private companies
telecommunication, hotel, resort, etc)
Growth opportunitymeans
Note: Subsidized services (coldviability
annual storage,gap Cooperatives,
irrigation, icebymaker, milling,etc) Additional services Local communities,
funding subsidy the central government.communities, private
/ productive use of Private agreements cooperatives,
Up to current non-subsidized PLN rate is VERYcompanies, local energy district government
preferred. Anything higher will be scrutinized governments
 OPPORTUNITY
BEING CREATIVE WITH YOUR BUSINESS
MODEL FOR INDONESIAN HYBRID PV
PROJECTS
THANK YOU