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September
Sugar Natural Gas
2013 Industry
In SS2012-13, the sugar cane acreage increased marginally by 0.5 per cent on a yoy basis
to 5,064 thousand hectares. Despite the rise in acreage under sugarcane, the industry is
likely to witness a lower sugar production in SS2012-13. The delay in the arrival of The drop in sugar
rainfall also severely affected the sugarcane productivity and thereby the sugar production to continue
production in SS2012-13. During the period of October 2012-June 2013, the country
produced about 24.8 mn tonnes of sugar. The impact of deficiency in rainfall
in SS2013-14...
experienced by Maharashtra in 2012 will trigger down the sugarcane acreage in 2013-
14. CARE Research believes that the increase in yield and the recovery rate in
Maharashtra will moderate the impact of drop in acreage on sugar production to some
extent in SS2013-14.

In 2012, out of 35 districts in Maharashtra, almost 25 districts were declared as a


Maharashtra - Continued drought hit. The key sugarcane producing districts like Kolhapur, Solapur, Pune,
Ahmednagar, Sangli, and Satara (together accounted for 68 per cent of sugar produced
drop in acreage will pull in Maharashtra in SS2011-12) were few among them. Consequently, in SS2012-13, the
down the sugar acreage under sugarcane in Maharashtra declined by about 8.3 per cent on a yoy basis.
The downfall in acreage under sugarcane in Maharashtra is likely to continue in SS2013-
production... 14. CARE Research has estimated that the acreage under sugarcane in Maharashtra will
decline marginally in SS2013-14.

In past few years, the SAP declared by the UP government has been the highest among
other sugar producing states despite having the low recovery rate. The gap between UP based sugar mills to
the sugarcane prices of UP and other states had widened in the last two sugar seasons.
UP based sugar companies have raised their concerns on high cane prices with the state
feel the brunt of
government. However, being the election year, reduction in cane price seems difficult. increased sugarcane
CARE Research expects that the state government to increase the cane price marginally. prices...
So, in SS2013-14, the sugar mills based in west and south regions will be relatively
better placed compared to the sugar mills based in UP.

Under the current sugarcane pricing mechanism, the sugarcane price fixed by the state
Revenue sharing model governments is deeply influenced by socio-political factors. The lack of linkage between
sugar and sugarcane prices leads to cyclicality. Thus, there is a need to devise appropriate
for sugarcane pricing sugarcane pricing model which can ensure a long term sustainability of the sugar
seems difficult in industry and also prove beneficial to farmers. In major sugar producing countries like

near term... Brazil, Australia and Thailand the revenue sharing model of sugarcane pricing is
followed. Taking cues from the Rangarajan Committee, Karnataka and Maharashtra
proposed to bring in a new law for purchase and supply of sugarcane. However, in
SS2013-14, the rationalisation in sugarcane pricing policy in UP is difficult to implement
being general election in 2014.

The
Indian
Sugar
Industry
Table
of
Contents
Section- I Care Research's Outlook
OUTLOOK ON
Sugar production
¢
Sugar consumption
¢ scenario
Overall
¢ demand and supply scenario
Sugar price
¢
Industry
¢ profitability
Section- II Industry Section
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Overview
¢ of sugar sector in India
Evolution
¢ of Indian sugar sector
Characteristics
¢ of sugar sector in India
Types of
¢ sugar

GOVERNMENT REGULATION AND INCENTIVES


Sugarcane-related
¢ policies
Sugar-related
¢ policies

DEMAND - SUPPLY SCENARIO IN INDIA


Pre 1990
¢ era
Demand
¢ and Supply Scenario in the period SS1990-91 to SS2007-08
Demand
¢ & Supply Scenario in the period SS2008-09 to SS2012-13
Demand
¢ and Supply Drivers

STATE-WISE SCENARIO
State-wise
¢ acreage under sugarcane cultivation
State-wise
¢ sugarcane production
State-wise
¢ sugarcane yield
State-wise
¢ sugar production
State-wise
¢ analysis
Maharashtra
¡
Uttar
¡ Pradesh (UP)
Karnataka
¡

GLOBAL SCENARIO
Global sugar
¢ production
Global sugar
¢ trade
International
¢ sugar prices
Brazil sugar
¢ industry

COST AND MARGIN ANALYSIS


Cost analysis
¢
Sugarcane
¡ production
Sugarcane
¡ pricing
Margin analysis
¢
The
SUGAR BY-PRODUCTS
Overview
¢
Indian
Bagasse
¢ Sugar
Industry
Table
of
Contents
Molasses
¢
Ethanol
¢
Business
¢ model analysis

SUGAR PRODUCTION PROCESS

SECTION- III Company Section


Bajaj Hindustan Ltd.
Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd.
Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd.
Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd.

SECTION- IV Annexures
Sugarcane-
¢ state-wise production
Sugarcane-
¢ state-wise area under cultivation
Sugarcane-
¢ state-wise yield
Sugarcane-
¢ state-wise duration of crushing season
Sugarcane-
¢ state-wise sugarcane crushed by sugar factories
State-wise
¢ Number of sugar factories
Sugar- state-wise
¢ production
State-wise
¢ sugar recovery rate
Sugarcane
¢ utilisation for different purposes
Month-wise
¢ sugar production
List of Tables
SECTION - I CARE Research's Outlook
OUTLOOK
¢State-wise acreage under sugarcane
¢Types of sugarcane crops grown in Maharashtra
¢Overall demand-supply situation

SECTION - II Industry Section


INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Number
¢ of factories in operation in India and average capacity per day
Comparison
¢ of regulatory environment in top sugar-producing countries
Top five
¢ sugar-producing states in India in SS 2011-12

GOVERNMENT REGULATION AND INCENTIVES


Trend in
¢ statutory minimum prices
State advised
¢ price
Sugar release
¢ policy

DEMAND - SUPPLY SCENARIO IN INDIA


Area under
¢ sugarcane production, yield and sugar production (Pre 1990 Era)
Comparison
¢ of SMP for Wheat and Sugarcane
State-wise
¢ estimated acreage under sugarcane The
Steady growth
¢
Trend in
in sugar consumption and population
recovery rate
Indian
¢
Sugar
Industry
Table
of
Contents
STATE-WISE SCENARIO
Area under
¢ sugarcane production, yield and sugar production in Maharashtra
Area under
¢ sugarcane production, yield and sugar production in Uttar Pradesh
Area under
¢ sugarcane production, yield and sugar production in Karnataka

GLOBAL SCENARIO
Global sugar
¢ Production
Brazil sugar
¢ Exports
Brazil ethanol
¢ Exports

COST AND MARGIN ANALYSIS


Company-wise
¢ raw material cost
Major sugarcane
¢ producing states in tropical and sub-tropical regions

SUGAR BY-PRODUCTS
Non-integrated
¢ Model: sugar + molasses + bagasse
Partially-integrated
¢ Model: sugar + ethanol+ bagasse
Partially-integrated
¢ Model: sugar + molasses + power
Fully-integrated
¢ Model: Sugar + Ethanol + Power

SECTION – IV Annexures
Sugarcane-
¢ state-wise production
Sugarcane-
¢ state-wise area under cultivation
Sugarcane-
¢ state-wise yield
Sugarcane-
¢ state-wise duration of crushing season
Sugarcane-
¢ state-wise sugarcane crushed by sugar factories
State-wise
¢ Number of sugar factories
Sugar- state-wise
¢ production
State-wise
¢ sugar recovery rate
Sugarcane
¢ utilisation for different purposes
Month-wise
¢ sugar production

List of Graphs
SECTION - I CARE Research's Outlook
OUTLOOK
Trend of
¢ sugarcane acreage and sugar production in India
Rainfall in
¢ Maharashtra (March 2012 - February 2013)
Trend of
¢ sugarcane and sugar production in Maharashtra
Trend of
¢ sugarcane and sugar production in UP
Trend of
¢ sugar consumption in India
Trend of
¢ average wholesale sugar price in India
Trend of
¢ sugarcane prices
Trend of
¢ sugar production cost
Trend of
¢ operating profit on sugar The
Trend of
¢ operating profit on sugar (Integrated model) Indian
Trend of
¢ share of cane price as a percentage of ex-mill prices
Sugar
Industry
Table
of
Contents
SECTION - II Industry Section
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Domestic
¢ demand and supply trend
Major sugarcane
¢ and sugar producing states in India
Average
¢ wholesale sugar price and Stock to use ratio
Trend of
¢ sugar price in SS2012-13
Sugar production
¢ cycle
Month-wise
¢ production trend of sugar

DEMAND SUPPLY SCENARIO IN INDIA


Sugar production
¢ trend in pre 1990 era
Trend of YoY
¢ growth in Sugar Production
Trend of
¢ acreage under sugarcane and sugarcane production
Trend of
¢ sugar production

STATE-WISE SCENARIO
State-wise
¢ acreage under sugarcane cultivation
State-wise
¢ sugarcane production
State-wise
¢ sugarcane yield
State-wise
¢ sugar production
State-wise
¢ share in sugar production
Maharashtra
¢ - District-wise sugar production
Maharashtra
¢ - Sector-wise distribution of sugar production capacity
Maharashtra
¢ – Trend of sugar crushing season
Uttar Pradesh
¢ - Sector-wise distribution of sugar production capacity
Uttar Pradesh
¢ – Trend of sugar crushing season
Karnataka
¢ - Sector-wise distribution of sugar production capacity
Karnataka
¢ – Trend of sugar crushing season

GLOBAL SCENARIO
World sugar
¢ import & export
Average
¢ New York prices (raw sugar)
Brazil sugarcane
¢ production
Brazil sugar
¢ production
Brazil ethanol
¢ production

COST AND MARGIN ANALYSIS


Sugarcane
¢ components
Sugarcane
¢ production in India
Trend of
¢ PBDIT and PAT Margin

SUGAR BY-PRODUCTS
Comparison
¢ of PAT margin for fully / partially integrated players v/s Non integrated players

SUGAR PRODUCTION PROCESS


Sugar manufacturing
¢ process
The
Indian
Sugar
Industry
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