Biology 300, Biometrics Name:

Key to Exam #2a, Winter Quarter 2010

PART I
Multiple Choice (30 points). Circle the best answer. Only one choice is “best”.

1. In a statistical test of a null hypothesis, H0, versus an alternative, H1, the power of the test is
the probability that you
A (a) reject H0 when H1 is true.
(b) do not reject H0 when H0 is false.
(c) reject H0 when H0 is true.
(d) do not reject H0 when H0 is true.
(e) none of the above.

2. Eight rabbits were raised on feed with a jojoba oil supplement and their total serum cholesterol
(TSC) levels were measured at three months of age. The TSC levels were also measured in ten
control rabbits of the same age raised on standard feed. What analysis would you use to see if
there is a significant effect of jojoba oil on TSC?
(a) Z-test for a binomial proportion
(b) Chi-square test for goodness of fit
C (c) Student’s t-test for two independent groups
(d) Chi-square test for a contingency table
(e) Student’s t-test for paired observations

3. If we change the level of significance from  = 0.05 to  = 0.10, we

(a) increase the power of the test.
(b) increase the probability of a Type I error.
(c) decrease the probability of a Type II error.
D (d) all of the above
(e) none of the above

4. Which of the following statements is true?

A (a) A 99% confidence interval is wider than a 95% confidence interval.
(b) Increasing the sample size will result in a wider confidence interval.
(c) A 95% confidence interval is narrower than a 90% confidence interval.
(d) All of the above are true.
(e) None of the above are true.

5. Over the course of six months, one hundred sufferers of acid reflux were asked to try five
medications and choose the one that gave them the most relief. What analysis would you
recommend for these data to see if there were preferences among the medications?
(a) Z-test for a binomial proportion
B (b) Chi-square test for goodness of fit
(c) Student’s t-test for two independent groups
(d) Chi-square test for a contingency table
(e) Student’s t-test for paired observations
 Biometrics — Winter 2010 Key to Exam #2a Page 2

6. Which of the following rules apply to chi-square analysis?

(a) Use the Yates correction factor whenever you have two or more degrees of freedom.
(b) Combine groups whenever the observed frequencies are less than five.
(c) Use the Yates correction factor whenever you have a contingency table.
(d) All of the above
E (e) None of the above

7. Sixty adult smokers were divided into two groups of 30. The first group was given nicotine
patches to help them quit smoking. The second group was encouraged to quit smoking on their
own. One month later each adult reported on whether or not they had quit smoking. What
analysis would you recommend for these data?
(a) Z-test for a binomial proportion
(b) Chi-square test for goodness of fit
(c) Student’s t-test for two independent groups
D (d) Chi-square test for a contingency table
(e) Student’s t-test for paired observations

8. In a statistical test of a null hypothesis, H0, versus an alternative, H1, a Type I error occurs when
you
(a) reject H0 when H1 is true.
(b) do not reject H0 when H0 is false.
C (c) reject H0 when H0 is true.
(d) do not reject H0 when H0 is true.
(e) none of the above.

9. Reaction times were measured for 16 volunteers before and after the administration of a
medication to treat flu symptoms. What analysis would you recommend to see if the
medication reduces reaction times?
(a) Z-test for a binomial proportion
(b) Chi-square test for goodness of fit
(c) Student’s t-test for two independent groups
(d) Chi-square test for a contingency table
E (e) Student’s t-test for paired observations

10. If sample size is decreased, this will result in

(a) an increase in the probability of a Type I error.
B (b) a decrease in the power of the test.
(c) no effect on the probability of a Type II error.
(d) all of the above
(e) none of the above
Biology 300, Biometrics Name:
Key to Exam #2a, Winter Quarter 2010

PART II
Answer each question and show all intermediate calculations. Be Neat! You may use one sheet of
paper containing statistical formulas and statistical tables A, B, and C. Use the other sides of the
exam sheets if you need more room.

1. In a random sample of 800 adults, 160 were found to have the attached earlobe trait. Find a 95%
confidence interval for the probability of having the attached earlobe trait. (10 points)

Binomial data with N = 800 and X = 160. Find 95% CI for p which is the proportion of volunteers who experienced nausea.

Estimated Values: pˆ = X/N = 160/800 = 0.20, qˆ = 1 – pˆ = 1 – 0.20 = 0.80.

95% Confidence Interval: (1)  = 0.05.

(2) A = (1–(1–0.05)/2 = 0.95/2 = 0.475.
(3) Z = 1.96 from Table A (or last row of Table B for two-sided ).
(4) p = pˆ  Z Sqrt[ pˆ qˆ / N]
= 0.2000  1.96 Sqrt[(0.20)(0.80) / 800]
= 0.2000  1.96 Sqrt[0.16 / 800]
= 0.2000  1.96 Sqrt[0.0002]
= 0.2000  1.96 (0.0141421)
= 0.2000  0.0277
p is in (0.1723, 0.2277) with a 95% probability

2. Vitamin C concentrations were measured for two varieties of oranges. A total of n1 = 21

valencia oranges were sampled and the mean vitamin C concentration per 100 g of raw fruit
was x 1 = 44.0 mg with a standard deviation of s1 = 4.0 mg. For navel oranges, a total of n2 = 26
oranges were sampled and the mean vitamin C concentration per 100 g of raw fruit was
x 2 = 42.0 mg with a standard deviation of s2 = 3.0 mg. Test the hypothesis of no difference in
mean vitamin C concentration versus the alternative that a difference exists. Use a 5% level of
significance. (10 points)
Sum of Squares: (1) H0: 1–2 = 0
H1: 1–2  0 (two-sided alternative)
SS1 = (n1 –1) (s1)2 = (21–1) (4.0)2 = (20) (16.0) = 320.0 mg2
SS2 = (n2 –1) (s2)2 = (26–1) (3.0)2 = (25) (9.0) = 225.0 mg2 (2)  = 0.05

(3) Two-sided t-test for two groups with df = n1+n2–2 = 45.

Pooled Std Dev: Test statistic: t = (x1–x2) / [sp Sqrt(1/n1 + 1/n2)]

sp =Sqrt[(SS1 + SS2) / (n1+n2–2)] (4) Reject H0 if t < –2.014 or t > 2.014.

=Sqrt[(320.0 + 225.0) / (21+26–2)]
(5) t = (44.0–42.0) / [3.480102 Sqrt(1/21 + 1/26)]
= Sqrt[545.0 / 45] = Sqrt[12.111111] = 3.480102 mg
= 2.0 / [3.480102 Sqrt(0.0476190 + 0.0384615)]
= 2.0 / [3.480102 Sqrt(0.0860805)]
= 2.0 / [3.480102 (0.293395)]
= 2.0 / 1.021045 = 1.959

(6) Do not reject H0. There is no evidence for a difference in

vitamin C concentrations between the two varieties of
orange.
Biometrics — Winter 2010 Key to Exam #2a Page 4

3. The number of leeches per fish were counted for a random sample of fish. The data are given
below. These data have sample mean of x = 0.8 leeches per fish. Test the hypothesis (at the 5%
level of significance) that the number of leeches per fish follows a Poisson distribution. (20
points)

Number of
Number of fish
leeches per fish
0 58
1 39
2 14
3 7
4 2

X Observed Prob Expected Chi sq Chi sq = (Obs - Exp)2 / Expt

0 58 0.4493 53.92 0.309
To avoid small expected numbers, we must pool the
1 39 0.3595 43.14 0.397
last two groups:
2 14 0.1438 17.25 0.612
3 7 0.0383 4.60 1.926 Obs = 7 + 2 = 9
4 or more 2 0.0091 1.09
TOTALS 120 1.0000 120.0 3.244 Exp = 4.60 + 1.09 = 5.69

Chi sq = (9 – 5.69)2 / 5.69 = 1.926

Use the sample mean x = 0.8 to compute probabilities from the Poisson distribution:
Prob(X=0) = exp(–0.8) (0.8)0/(0!) = (0.449329) (1)/(1) = 0.449329 Expt = n Prob(X=0) = 120 (0.449329) = 53.92
1
Prob(X=1) = exp(–0.8) (0.8) /(1!) = (0.449329) (0.8)/(1) = 0.359463 Expt = n Prob(X=1) = 120 (0.359463) = 43.14
Prob(X=2) = exp(–0.8) (0.8)2/(2!) = (0.449329) (0.64)/(2) = 0.143785 Expt = n Prob(X=2) = 120 (0.143785) = 17.25
Prob(X=3) = exp(–0.8) (0.8)3/(3!) = (0.449329) (0.512)/(6) = 0.038343 Expt = n Prob(X=3) = 120 (0.038343) = 4.60
For the last group, we use Prob(X4) = 1 – Prob(X3):
Prob(X4) = 1 – Prob(X3) = 1 – [ Prob(X=0) + Prob(X=1) + Prob(X=2) + Prob(X=3) ]
= 1 – [ 0.449329 + 0.359463 + 0.143785 + 0.038343 ] = 1 – 0.990920 = 0.009080
Expt = n Prob(X4) = 120 (0.009080) = 1.09
These probabilities and expected values have been added to the table above.

(1) H0: data come from a Poisson distribution

H1: data do not come from a Poisson distribution

(2)  = 0.05

(3) Chi-squared test with df = k – m – 1 = 4 – 1 – 1 = 2.

Note: must pool last two groups, so k = 4 groups after pooling.

(4) Reject H0 if 2 > 5.991.

(5) 2 = 3.244. (See table above.)

(6) Do not reject H0. The data are consistent with a Poisson distribution.
Biometrics — Winter 2010 Key to Exam #2a Page 5

4. Reaction time was measured in five volunteers before and after the consumption of one
alcoholic drink. The result appear below. Test the hypothesis of no effect of alcohol on reaction
time against the alternative that reaction time increases under the influence of alcohol. Use 5%
level of significance. (15 points)

Reaction Times (milliseconds)

Before alcohol After alcohol
Before After d d*d
181 189 181 189 8 64
162 161 162 161 -1 1
173 177 4 16
173 177 144 150 6 36
144 150 156 159 3 9
156 159 SUM: 20 126

Sample size: n = 5 (1) H0: d = 0

Mean: d =  d)/n = 20/5 = 4.0 ms
Std dev: sd = Sqrt([( d2) – ( d)2/n] /[n–1])
= Sqrt([126 – (20)2/5] / [5–1])
= Sqrt([126 – 400/5] / 4)
= Sqrt([126 – 80] / 4)
= Sqrt(46 / 4)
= Sqrt(11.5)
= 3.39116 = 3.4 ms
H1: d0 (one-sided alternative)
(2)  = 0.05
(3) One-sided paired t-test with df = n–1 = 5–1 = 4.
Test statistic: t = d / [sd/Sqrt(n)].
(4) Reject H0 if t > t4 = 2.132.
(5) t = 4.0 / [3.39116 / Sqrt(5)]
= 4.0 / [3.39116 / 2.23607]
= 4.0 / 1.51657 = 2.638

(6) Reject H0. There is evidence that the mean reaction time increased
after consumption of alcohol.

5. A randomly selected group of 50 employees of a shipping company completed a driving safety

course. Among this group, 5 of the employees were involved in a traffic accident over a two-
year period. Among a randomly selected control group of 150 employees who did not take the
driving safety course, 45 were involved in a traffic accident during the same time period. Test
for an association between completion of the driving safety course and involvement in a traffic
accident. Use a 1% level of significance. (15 points)
Accident
Yes No
Driving Yes 5 (12.5) 45 (37.5) 50
Course No 45 (37.5) 105 (112.5) 150
50 150 200
R = 2, C = 2. Expected numbers: (row total)(column total)/(grand total)

(1) H0: no assocation exists between safety training and accident rates
H1: an assocation exists between safety training and accident rates

(2)  = 0.01

(3) 2  2 contingency table with df = (R–1)(C–1) = (2–1)(2–1) = 1. (Use Yates correction factor.)

(4) Reject H0 if 2 > 6.635.

(5) 2 = (|5 – 12.5| – 0.5)2/12.5 + (|45 – 37.5| – 0.5)2/37.5 + (|45 – 37.5| – 0.5)2/37.5 + (|105 – 112.5| – 0.5)2/112.5

= (7.5 – 0.5)2/12.5 + (7.5 – 0.5)2/37.5 + (7.5 – 0.5)2/37.5 + (7.5 – 0.5)2/112.5

= 7.02/12.5 + 7.02/37.5 + 7.02/37.5 + 7.02/112.5

= 49.00/12.5 + 49.00/37.5 + 49.00/37.5 + 49.00/112.5 = 3.920000 + 1.306667 + 1.306667 + 0.435556 = 6.969.

(6) Reject H0. There is evidence for an association between safety training and accident rates.