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MASON-DIXON® MISSISSIPPI POLL

DECEMBER 2017 – PART II


Polling in Mississippi since 1987

FOR RELEASE: 6 am CST, Thursday, December 21, 2017


© Copyright 2017

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Mason-Dixon® Mississippi Poll - December 2017
BRYANT’S JOB RATING SLIPS
COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR DEMOCRAT HOOD IN 2019

Republican governor Phil Bryant’s job performance rating is down from a year
and a half ago. Statewide, 59% of Mississippi voters approve of Bryant’s
performance as governor, 31% disapprove and 10% are unsure.

BRYANT JOB RATING

10%
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
31% 59% NOT SURE

Bryant’s approval rating is down 9-points since March 2019, when it was 68%.

BRYANT JOB RATING APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

April 2015 72% 20% 8%


March 2016 68% 24% 8%
December 2017 59% 31% 10%

That dynamic could work in favor of Democratic Attorney Jim Hood if he decides
to run for governor in 2019. Hood’s personal popularity has enabled him to
remain the only Democrat holding statewide office as Mississippi shifted strongly
Republican.

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Mason-Dixon® Mississippi Poll - December 2017
Hood’s broad appeal is demonstrated by the early advantage he has over GOP
Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves in a head-to-head race. Statewide, 43% of
registered voters support Hood, while 37% back Reeves and a very significant
20% are undecided.

2019 GOVERNOR'S RACE

20%
43% HOOD
REEVES
UNDECIDED

37%

Hood draws over 80% of Democrats, 14% of Republicans and leads 38%-33%
among independent voters. If he runs, it appears Hood will receive strong
backing from the state’s African-American voters.

While Reeves is widely considered to be the likely Republican nominee, there


has been some stirring of a potential primary challenge from State Treasurer
Lynn Fitch. In a match-up among GOP voters who regularly vote in the party
primary, Reeves holds a 37%-18% lead over Fitch, with 45% undecided.

2019 GOP GOVERNOR PRIMARY

37%
45% REEVES
FITCH
UNDECIDED

18%

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Mason-Dixon® Mississippi Poll - December 2017
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Phil Bryant’s job performance as
governor?

APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

STATE 59% 31% 10%

REGION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Northern Mississippi 67% 22% 11%


The Delta 26% 63% 11%
Eastern Mississippi 68% 24% 8%
Jackson Metro 59% 34% 7%
Southern Mississippi 63% 25% 12%

SEX APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Men 63% 27% 10%


Women 55% 35% 10%

AGE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

<50 55% 37% 8%


50+ 62% 27% 11%

RACE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

White 78% 13% 9%


Black 20% 67% 13%

PARTY IDENTIFICATION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Democrat 31% 57% 12%


Republican 84% 9% 7%
Independent 54% 33% 13%

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Mason-Dixon® Mississippi Poll - December 2017
QUESTION: If the 2019 election for governor were held today, for whom would
you vote if the candidates were Jim Hood, the Democrat, and Tate Reeves, the
Republican?

HOOD REEVES UNDECIDED

STATE 43% 37% 20%

REGION HOOD REEVES UNDECIDED

Northern Mississippi 40% 40% 20%


The Delta 71% 8% 21%
Eastern Mississippi 40% 38% 22%
Jackson Metro 41% 41% 18%
Southern Mississippi 36% 44% 20%

SEX HOOD REEVES UNDECIDED

Men 39% 42% 19%


Women 46% 32% 22%

AGE HOOD REEVES UNDECIDED

<50 37% 39% 24%


50+ 48% 35% 17%

RACE HOOD REEVES UNDECIDED

White 24% 54% 22%


Black 83% 2% 15%

PARTY IDENTIFICATION HOOD REEVES UNDECIDED

Democrat 81% 4% 15%


Republican 14% 66% 20%
Independent 38% 33% 29%

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Mason-Dixon® Mississippi Poll - December 2017
*** 400 REGULAR REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ***

QUESTION: If the 2019 Republican primary for governor were held today, for
whom would you vote if the candidates were: (ORDER ROTATED)

Tate Reeves 37%


Lynn Fitch 18%
Undecided (NOT READ) 45%

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Mason-Dixon® Mississippi Poll - December 2017
HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville,
Florida from December 13 through December 15, 2017. A total of 625
registered Mississippi voters were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Mississippi


voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers.
Quotas were assigned to reflect voter registration by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians,


is no more than ± 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent
probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were
surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or
age grouping.

This poll also includes a sample of 400 regular Republican primary voters. The
margin for error on this survey is ± 5 percentage points.

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Mason-Dixon® Mississippi Poll - December 2017
DEMOGRAPHICS

PARTY IDENTIFICATION:

Democrat 218 (35%)


Republican 264 (42%)
Independent or Other 143 (23%)

AGE: 18-34 102 (16%)


35-49 174 (28%)
50-64 188 (30%)
65+ 154 (25%)
Refused 7 (1%)

RACE: White/Caucasian 408 (65%)


Black/African American 200 (32%)
Other/Refused 17 (3%)

SEX: Male 295 (47%)


Female 330 (53%)

REGION: Northern Mississippi 130 (21%)


The Delta 80 (13%)
Eastern Mississippi 100 (16%)
Jackson Metro 120 (19%)
Southern Mississippi 195 (31%)

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Mason-Dixon® Mississippi Poll - December 2017
MISSISSIPPI POLL REGIONS

NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI: Voters in DeSoto, Marshall, Yalobusha, Lafayette,


Calhoun, Pontotoc, Chickasaw, Monroe, Itawamba, Lee, Prentiss, Union,
Benton, Tippah, Alcorn and Tishomingo counties.

THE DELTA: Voters in Tate, Panola, Coahoma, Tunica, Quitman, Bolivar,


Tallahatchie, Sunflower, Leflore, Grenada, Carroll, Holmes, Humphreys,
Washington, Sharkey, Yazoo, Issaquena and Warren counties.

EASTERN MISSISSIPPI: Voters in Clay, Lowndes, Oktibbeha, Choctaw,


Webster, Montgomery, Attala, Leake, Scott, Smith, Jasper, Clark, Newton,
Lauderdale, Neshoba, Kemper, Winston and Noxubee counties.

JACKSON METRO: Voters in Hinds, Rankin, Madison, Copiah and Simpson


counties.

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI: Voters in Claiborne, Jefferson, Adams, Wilkinson,


Franklin, Amite, Lincoln, Pike, Lawrence, Walthall, Jefferson Davis, Marion,
Covington, Jones, Wayne, Lamar, Forrest, Perry, Greene, George, Pearl River,
Stone, Hancock, Harrison and Jackson counties.

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Mason-Dixon® Mississippi Poll - December 2017

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