Zorzettos Quarterly Recap #5 December 2017

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THE GLOBE IN 2017

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Top 5 Events
Twilight of Tolerance
INDIAS LARGEST STATE
ELECTS A HINDU MONK
India is by far the largest democracy in history.
Soon to overtake China as the most populous
country on earth, and with a fast-growing
economy, India is the great hope of liberals
around the world. Yet the secular,
multicultural principles that Nehru gave to the
country are more and more endangered.
Though the rise of communal politics started
decades ago, and religious and caste tensions are
unfortunately nothing new, the rise to power of
Modis Hindu-right BJP might mark a historical
turning point. This year, Uttar Pradesh, Indias
largest state with 220 million people (more
than Brazil) elected a controversial BJP Hindu
priest as its chief minister. The views, common
in the West, of Modi as a fanatic strongman are
unfair. But with slowing GDP and mounting
anger at jobless growth, he might have no
 choice but to keep pandering to the Hindu
right, through measures such as the divisive ban
on beef sales. Lets hope that with a rising
middle-class, modern and educated, the
government will instead focus on opening up
the economy as promised. The whole world
would have much to lose if India turned illiberal
and intolerant.

Leader-Less Trumps first year will be remembered more

for his tweets and gaffes, as in terms of policy
he did very little (apart from huge tax cuts for
the rich). Internationally, though, he has been
very successful at accelerating the waning of
American leadership, tarnishing long-standing
bonds of trust even with key allies. The best
proof is his choice to make the US the only
country in the world out of the Paris
US LEAVES THE PARIS agreement. Climate change is one of the
CLIMATE AGREEMENT greatest issues humanity has ever faced. The
deal reached in 2015 was not ambitious enough
and it is unclear to what extent governments
will comply with it. But leaving it altogether
sends a very clear, and worrying, message. In a
world where issues are more global than ever
before, we cannot rely anymore on the only
country that can act as a leader. It will take a
long time before China or any other power will
replace the US. For now, welcome to a leader-
less world. I suspect even many critics of
American power will soon miss it.

Bad Timing Europes key event in 2017 was Germanys

elections last September. The interest in the
vote was low we were all sure Merkel would
win. And she did, but with a way-lower-than-
expected share of the vote, whilst the far-right
achieved a historical success. Her first attempt
to put together a coalition with the greens and
the liberals has failed spectacularly, and she is
now trying to revive the Groe Koalition with
STRONGER EUROPE, the centre-left. Even Germany, for once, seems
WEAKER MERKEL weak and unstable. Europes story this year is
 exactly the opposite. Trump and Brexit have,
so far, made the EU more united, the Eurozone
economy is at its strongest in a decade and
Macrons impressive win revived talks of
further integration. Merkel had finally become
more convinced of the merits of deepening the
EU last spring, before coming out of the
German elections at her weakest. Talks about
her days being numbered abound, and this will
make any reform of the EU very unlikely. Very
bad timing.

Chinas Core This year opened with Xi Jinping defending

globalisation in front of the earths powerful in
Davos. And it closes with Chinas core leader
coming out even stronger of the quinquennial
party congress. Breaking with his predecessors
habit of preparing ones succession, Xi is
indisputably the strongest leader since Deng
Xiaoping. However, the real question is what
he is going to do with all this power. So far, he
XI CEMENTS HIS GRIP has been more focused on purging opponents
ON POWER rather than driving reforms, which the country
badly needs. Slowing GDP, high debt and a
complex transition to a consumption-led
economy: the longer Beijing waits, the harder
it gets to avoid a full-blown crisis. True,
Chinas long-term prospects are bright. Even in
terms of innovation it has been catching up fast,
with tech giants Tencent and Alibaba rivalling
with Silicon Valley to lead the fourth industrial
revolution. But an all-powerful new Mao is
not what China needs to keep growing without
internal rifts. And consensual leadership in
Beijing is better for the liberal world order too;
I really dont trust Xi when he acts as its new
paladin.
 Turning Tide About a year ago, Zuckerberg stated that it is
absurd to think that Facebook influenced the US
elections. He has then gradually changed his
mind; recently we even found out that about
150 million Americans were reached by
Russian-bought election ads. If Silicon Valleys
reputation keeps falling at this speed, it will
soon compete with Wall Street in terms of
unpopularity. Late this year, the US Congress
BIG TECH GRILLED OVER grilled Facebook, Google and Twitter over
ELECTION ADS their role during the election. Fake news is not
the main issue though. Big Tech is improving
the economy and society in many ways, but as
every time that fast changes take place, we need
to help everyone through the transition. And,
frankly, Im tired of everyone looking up to the
likes of Jeff Bezos and Tim Cook for solutions.
Sure, they might genuinely be nice and liberal,
but they remain the biggest tax evaders in
history. Instead, its time for politics to finally
step up to the game. No more turbo-capitalism
driving inequalities back to Bell poque levels,
nor unsustainable statism from the 70s.
Rather, a new social formula that works for our
digital times.

Looking Ahead
Feel free to get back to me: Id love to hear your thoughts, comments and suggestions.
Stay tuned for the next newsletters, or email me if you wish to be taken off the list.
Merry Xmas and happy 2018!

Andrea

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