STA1503/201/2/2013

Tutorial Letter 201/2/2013

Distribution Theory I
STA1503

Semester 2

Department of Statistics

SOLUTIONS TO ASSIGNMENT 1

BAR CODE

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Question 1

(a) Probability of both events occurring is

P.A \ B/ D P.AjB/P.B/ D 0:1 0:2 D 0:02:

(b) Probability that at least one event occurs is

N C P. AN \ B/ C P.A \ B/
P.at least one event occurs/ D P.A \ B/
D [P.A/ P.A \ B/] C [P.B/ P.A \ B/] C P.A \ B/
D [0:6 0:02] C [0:2 0:02] C 0:02 D 0:78:

Alternatively:
P.A [ B/ D P.A/ C P.B/ P.A \ B/ D 0:6 C 0:2 0:02 D 0:78:

(c) Probability of exactly one event occurring is

P.exactly one event occurs/ D P.A \ B/N C P. AN \ B/
D 0:58 C 0:18 D 0:76:

Alternatively:
P.exactly one event occurs/ D P.A/ C P.B/ 2P.A \ B/
D 0:6 C 0:2 2 0:02 D 0:76:

(d) Probability that B occurs given that A has occurred is

P.A \ B 0:02 1
P.BjA/ D D D D 0:033330 :
P.A/ 0:6 30

Question 2

Let the events:

A D product produced by company A (then P.A/ D 0:5/;
B D product produced by company B (then P.B/ D 0:3/;
C D product produced by company C (then P.C/ D 0:2/; and
D D product is defective, then P.DjA/ D 0:05, P.DjB/ D 0:10 and P.DjC/ D 0:15:
(a) Probability that the product is defective is
P.D/ D P.DjA/P.A/ C P.DjB/P.B/ C P.DjC/P.C/
D 0:5 0:05 C 0:3 0:1 C 0:2 0:15 D 0:085:

(b) Probability that the product is produced by company B given that it is defective is
P.B \ D/ P.DjB/P.B/ 0:3 0:1
P.BjD/ D D D D 0:353:
P.D/ P.D/ 0:085

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Question 3

Let the events:

T D Patient tests positive; and I D Patient is infected.
Probability that the patient is infected if he/she has tested positive is
P.T jI /P.I / 0:95 0:40 0:38
P.I jT / D D D D 0:8636:
P.T jI /P.I / C P.T j IN/P. IN/ 0:95 0:40 C 0:10 0:60 0:44

Question 4
P
E.X / D x p.x/
1 1 1
D 0 C1 C2
4 2 4
1 1
D 0C C
2 2
1C1
D
2
2
D
2
D 1

Question 5

10 1
(a) Y ~bin 5; D since sampling with replacement so
50 5
3 2
5 1 4
P.Y D 3/ D
3 5 5
(b) Y ~hypergeometric with N D 50; r D 10; n D 5 since sampling without replacement, so
10 40
3 2
P.Y D 3/ D
50
5
10 1
(c) Y ~Geometric D since the coin is replace by time so
50 5
2 3
4 1
P.Y D 3/ D
5 5

30
(d) Y ~Posson. / since the are an average of flows square yard and D average number
1000
of flows square yard per 8 square yard

3
 30
D :8
1000
240
D
1000
D 0:24
Thus,
.0:2/3 e 0:24
P.Y D 3/ D
3!
D 0:0018