You are on page 1of 98

Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Present and future


flood vulnerability,
risk and disadvantage
A UK assessment


PreparedforJosephRowntreeFoundation,Climate
ChangeandCommunitiesProgramme
June2017

Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

REPORTINFORMATION

ReportTitle: Presentandfuturefloodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AUK
scaleassessment
ProjectNumber: P1111
StartDate: May2016
Contractor: SayersandPartnersLLP
Address: 24aHighStreet,Watlington,OX495PYUK,
Contact: Phone:+441865600039
Website: www.sayersandpartners.co.uk
Author: PaulSayers
Phone(s): +441865600039,+447711798786
Email(s): paul.sayers@sayersandpartners.co.uk
Coauthors: MattHorritt,EdmundPenningRowsell,JessieFieth
JRFlead: KatharineKnox

Approvalforreleasetoclient:

Name Position ProjectRole


PaulSayers Partner Lead

Distribution:

Name Organisationandcontact
KatharineKnox JRF
Various ProjectAdvisoryBoard

Documentrevision:

Version Date Author(s) Description


Final June2017 Asabove Finalrelease

Citation:Sayers,P.B.,Horritt,M.,PenningRowsell,E.,andFieth,J.(2017).Presentandfutureflood
vulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AUKscaleassessment.AreportfortheJosephRowntree
FoundationpublishedbySayersandPartnersLLP.

Keywords:Flood,risk,vulnerability,disadvantage,socialjustice,climatechange

Copyright2017SayersandPartnersLLP.Allrightsreserve

ii

Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Overview
Developingabetterunderstandingoftherelationshipbetweensocialvulnerabilityandexposureto
floodriskacrossdifferentcommunitiesisaprerequisitetodeliveringasociallyjust(i.e.fair)
approachtoprioritisingfloodriskmanagementeffortswithinnationalpolicyandfundingstructures.
TheFutureFloodExplorer(UKFFE,Sayersetal.,2015)hasbeenusedheretoassesspresentday
socialvulnerabilitytofloodingandresultingflooddisadvantageacrosstheUKandhowthismay
changeinthefutureinresponsetoexogenousinfluences(e.g.climatechangeandpopulation)and
endogenousinfluences(e.g.floodmanagementpolicyanditsbroaderimpactsonissuessuchas
insurance).Indoingso,aNeighbourhoodFloodVulnerabilityIndex(NFVI)isintroducedandusedto
comparerisksbetweenmoreandlessfloodvulnerableneighbourhoods(wherevulnerabilityis
characterisedintermsofcommunitiesexperiencingalossinwellbeingwhenfloodsoccur)anda
SocialFloodRiskIndex(SFRI)isusedtoidentifywherevulnerabilityandexposurecoincidetocreate
flooddisadvantage.

TheresultshighlightsignificantvariationinflooddisadvantageacrosstheUK.Forexample,tenlocal
authoritiesaccountforfiftypercentofthesociallyvulnerablepeoplethatliveinfloodproneareas
(thoselivinginthe5%mostvulnerableneighbourhoodsaccordingtotheNFVI).Coastalareas,
decliningurbancitiesanddispersedruralcommunitiesarealsohighlightedasrepresentingthe
greatestconcentrationsofdisadvantage(asmeasuredbytheSocialFloodRiskIndex,SFRI1).When
incomeandinsurancepenetrationareconsidered,theRelativeEconomicPain2(ametricdefined
hereastheratiobetweenuninsuredlossandincome)issignificantlyinvulnerablecommunitiesthan
elsewhere.

ReanalysisoftheEnvironmentAgencysLongTermInvestmentScenarios(LTIS)(forEngland),which
areusedtosupportthecaseforinvestmentinfloodriskmanagement,suggestthereisarobust
economiccaseforimprovingprotectionaffordedtosociallyvulnerablecommunities.Thereasonfor
thisisunclearbutnonethelesssuggeststhatthereisbothautilitarianimperative(thatseeksto
maximisereturnoninvestment)aswellasaRawlsianrationale(thatpreferentiallytargetsthemost
vulnerable)toreducefloodriskinthesociallyvulnerablecommunities.

Lowincomeandpoorhealthareimportantdriversoffloodvulnerabilityandaremoreinfluencedby
broaderplanningandwelfarepolicythanfloodriskmanagementpolicy.Deliveringfloodrisk
management(FRM)moreeffectivelythereforerequiresgreaterefforttobringtogether,andbe
supportiveof,multiplegovernmentandprivatesectorinvestmentstreamstoachieveoverallpolicy
goals.Thisincludespreferentiallyselectinginterventionstobothreducefloodriskandhavewider

1DefinedhereastheproductoftheNFVI,thenumberofpeopleexposed,thefloodprobability.

2Inrecognitionofthevaryingcopingcapacitybetweenmoreaffluentandlowerincomehouseholds,thismetriccaptures

therelationshipbetweenuninsuredeconomicdamagesandhouseholdincomeDiscussedfurtherinSection3ofthereport.
i

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

healthandwellbeingbenefits(forexample,greeninfrastructureapproaches)andsupportother
policyagendas.

Studyfocus
Socialvulnerabilityinthecontextoffloodsrelatestohowfloodingimpactsonandcreateslossesin
peopleswellbeing.DeliveringsociallyjustFRMthusrequirestwocentralissuestobeaddressed.
Thefirstrelatestoaddressinggeographicflooddisadvantage(placeswheremanysocially
vulnerablepeopleareexposedtoflooding)andrequiresanunderstandingofwherethemost
sociallyvulnerablecommunitiesarelocatedandtheirexposuretoflooding.Thesecondrelatesto
addressingsystemicflooddisadvantage(thedegreetowhichthesociallyvulnerablecommunities
aredisproportionallyaffectedbyflooding)andrequiresanunderstandingofthedegreetowhich
FRMpolicy(anditsimplementationinpractice)successfullydeliverssociallyjustoutcomes(as
expressedbythecomparativerisksfacedbymoreandlessvulnerablecommunities).

Tobetterunderstandthegeographicandsystemicnatureofflooddisadvantagetheanalysishere
seeksto:

(i) Identifythoseneighbourhoodsatgreatestflooddisadvantagenowandinthefuture
(throughtothe2020s,2050sand2080s)acrosstheUK;
(ii) AssessthedegreetowhichFRMcanbeconsideredsociallyjust;and
(iii) Identifypolicygapsandrecommendpolicychangestoimprovefloodresilienceandreduce
disadvantage.

Keyfindings:Flooddisadvantagenowandinthefuture
TheFutureFloodExplorer(FFE)hasbeenusedtoquantifypresentandfuturefloodriskforthe
wholeoftheUKthroughtothe2080s,basedontwoclimatefutures(+2oCand+4oC),twopopulation
growthscenarios(highandlow)andassumingcurrentlevelsofadaptation(CLA)continue.Thekey
findingsfromthisanalysisarepresentedbelow.

Floodplainpopulation,vulnerabilityandexposuretofrequentflooding
Sociallyvulnerableneighbourhoodsareoverrepresentedinareaspronetoflooding(all
sources),butmostsignificantlyinareaspronetocoastal(andtidal)flooding.
Theproportionofpeoplelivinginthemostvulnerableneighbourhoodsismuchgreaterin
NorthernIrelandthanelsewhereintheUK.
Over50%ofthoseexposedtofloodingandlivinginthemostvulnerableneighbourhoodsarein
justtenlocalauthorities.
Bythe2080smoreandlessvulnerableneighbourhoodswillbothexperiencemorefrequent
floods.

Todayapproximately6.4millionpeopleliveinfloodproneareas,witharound1.5million(or23.4%
ofthesepeople),livinginthe20%mostvulnerableneighbourhoods.Withinallneighbourhoods,
31%(2millionpeople)areexposedtofrequentfloodingfromeitherfluvial(river),coastalorsurface
watersources(withareturnperiodof1:75yearsormorefrequent).Ofthose,6.1%livewithinthe
5%mostfloodvulnerableneighbourhoods(rankedinthetop5%byNeighbourhoodVulnerability
Index(NFVI),ameasureofthepropensityofthosethatliveinaneighbourhoodtoexperiencealoss
ofwellbeingshouldafloodoccur).Thisisafactorof1.2(20%)higherthanwouldbeexpected
ii

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

(assumingexposuretofloodingtobeequallydistributedbetweenmoreandlessvulnerable
neighbourhoods).Ofthe1.8millionpeoplelivinginthecoastalfloodplain,33%arewithinthe20%
mostvulnerableneighbourhoodsand10%inthe5%mostvulnerableneighbourhoods(top5%by
NFVI).Thisisasignificantoverrepresentation.InNorthernIreland55%ofthepopulationexposed
tofloodingliveinthetop20%ofneighbourhoodsbyNFVI(almostdoubletheUKaverage)and25%
ofthetotalpopulationexposedtofrequentfloodingareinthe5%mostvulnerableneighbourhoods
(almostfivetimestheUKaverage);withthemostsignificantdisadvantageseeninBelfast(afinding
thatalsoreflectsthehigherlevelsofpovertythatexistinNorthernIrelandcomparedtootherparts
oftheUK).

Seventyfivelocalauthorities(approximatelyonefifthoftheUKtotal)accountfor50%ofthose
livinginfloodproneareas.Theconcentrationbecomesmoremarkedwhenthemostvulnerable
neighbourhoods(top5%byNFVI)areconsidered,withover50%ofpeopleexposedtofloodingin
themostvulnerableneighbourhoodslocatedinjusttenlocalauthorities(Hull,Boston,Belfast,
Birmingham,EastLindsey,Glasgow,Leicester,NorthEastLincolnshire,SwaleDistrict,andTower
Hamlets).

Thenumberofpeoplelivinginfloodproneareasissettoincreaseby45%to10.8millionpeopleby
the2080s,assuminghighpopulationgrowth.Combinedwitha+4oCclimatefuture,andassuming
currentapproachestoadaptationcontinue,6.4millionpeoplewillbeexposedtofrequentflooding,
upfrom2milliontoday(anincreaseofover200%).Inthemostvulnerableneighbourhoodsthe
increaseisequallydramatic,againmorethantrebling,from451,000todayto1.4millionbythe
2080s(anincreaseofover200%).ThegreatestincreasesareexperiencedinEnglandandinareas
pronetosurfacewaterandfluvialflooding.

Expectedannualdamage(EAD)andtheinfluenceofincomeandinsurance
AtaUKscaleEADisdominatedbyEngland,butfromtheperspectiveofthemostvulnerable
neighbourhoodsthecontributionfromothernationsisgreater.
InEnglandandNorthernIreland,theaverageEADperpersonishighestinthemostvulnerable
neighbourhoods.
Today,vulnerableneighbourhoodscontributetwothirdsoftheEADinNorthernIreland,but
theirfuturecontributionraisesfastestinScotland.
Atthecoast,sociallyvulnerableneighbourhoodsexperiencedisproportionallyhighlevelsofEAD,
todayandinthefuture.
Lowerincomeandlowerlevelsofinsurancepenetrationheightentherelativeeconomicpainof
floodinginvulnerableneighbourhoods(acrossallsourcesofflooding).
EADissettorise,from351milliontoday,residentialdirectdamagesonly,to1.1billionbythe
2080s3.

3Assuminga+4oCclimatefuture,highpopulationgrowthandacontinuationofcurrentadaptationapproaches.

iii

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

ResidentialEADfromfloodingacrosstheUKis351million(residentialpropertyonly).These
headlinefiguresalsomaskthedisproportionalrisksfacedbyvulnerablecommunitiesinallfour
nations.InNorthernIreland,the20%mostvulnerableneighbourhoodsaccountfor67%oftheEAD
(inScotlandtheequivalentfigureis22%,inEngland22%andWales26%).Thisreflectsasignificant
contributionfromBelfast.

Atthecoast,the5%mostvulnerableneighbourhoodsaccountfor10%oftheEAD;the10%most
vulnerablecontribute19%andthe20%mostvulnerable32%.Thisimpliesthattheriskexperienced
bythesociallyvulnerablecommunitiesismuchhigherthantheaverage;adisproportionalitythat
persistsintothefuture.

ThoselivinginfloodproneareasinScotlandexperiencethehighestEADperperson(onaverage,
113perperson);thisisoverdoublethatofEngland(onaverage,50perperson).Bythe2080s
(assuminga+4oCclimatefutureandhighpopulationgrowth)theEADperpersoninScotland
increasesto183perperson(comparedto95perpersoninEngland)withtheriskinsocially
vulnerableneighbourhoods(top20%byNFVI)increasingtwiceasquicklyaselsewhere(increasing
from93to206perperson).ThisisnotthecaseinEngland,WalesandNorthernIrelandwhere
moreandlessvulnerableneighbourhoodsexperienceasimilarrateofincreaseinEADperperson.

LowincomesandlowlevelsofinsurancepenetrationmeanstheREPassociatedwithfloodingis
muchgreaterinvulnerableneighbourhoodsthanelsewhere.Inareaspronetocoastal/tidal
flooding,forexample,sociallyvulnerableneighbourhoods(top5%byNFVI)experienceovertwice
theREPoflessvulnerableneighbourhoods;influvialfloodplains,itisthreetimeshigher.Bythe
2080s(underallscenarios)theincreaseinEADtranslatestosignificantincreasesintheREPacross
theUKandallsourcesofflooding,particularlyforthemostvulnerableneighbourhoods.

Urbanandruralinfluencesonflooddisadvantage
Manysociallyvulnerablepeopleliveinurbanareaspronetoflooding,howevervulnerable
peoplelivinginruralsettingsareoftenexposedtomorefrequentflooding(andhence,on
average,higherlevelsofEADperperson).
Bythe2080s,allneighbourhoodsexperiencesignificantincreasesinEAD,withthemost
vulnerableneighbourhoodsinmoredispersedsettings(bothurbanandrural)experiencing
slightlygreaterincreasesthanelsewhere.

AtaUKscale,peoplelivinginmorevulnerableneighbourhoodsinthefluvialandcoastalfloodplains
aremostlyinurbansettings(840,000,over90%ofthetotal900,000ofthepeopleexposedto
floodinginmorevulnerableneighbourhoods)whereastheremaining60,000inruralsettingsare
exposedtomorefrequentflooding(reflectedinanEADperperson,onaverage,of76comparedto
42inurbansettings).

Bythe2080s,assumingacontinuationofCLA,thereisasignificantincreaseinriskacrossall
settlementtypes.Inmanysettings,moreandlessvulnerableneighbourhoodsexperiencesimilar
increases.Indispersedurbanandruralsettingshowever,themostvulnerableneighbourhoods
experienceslightlyhigherpercentageincreasesinriskwhencomparedtolessvulnerable
neighbourhoods.

iv

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Localauthoritiesandflooddisadvantage
ClustersofhighsocialfloodriskexistinlocalauthoritiesacrosstheUK.
Insomecases,flooddisadvantageishighlylocalised,inothersitiswidespread.
Inmostcases,localauthoritiesthatexperiencethehighestlevelofflooddisadvantagetoday
continuetodosointhefuture.Therearehoweverseveralexceptionswheretheincreaseis
muchfasterthanelsewhere.

TheSFRIprovidesthemostdirectmeasureofflooddisadvantage(whereexposuretofloodriskand
socialvulnerabilitycoincide)andhighlightsHull,Boston,Belfast,EastLindsey,Glasgow,Swale,
Newham,Leicester,Shepway,NorthEastLincolnshire,andBirminghamasthetenmostflood
disadvantagedlocalauthoritiesinUK.

Flooddisadvantagetypicallyreflectsareaswherealargenumberofvulnerablepeopleareexposed
toflooding(suchasinHull).Insuchsituations,conventionalflooddefencesaremorelikelytobe
feasible(technicallyandeconomically).Elsewhere,however,flooddisadvantagemaybehighly
localisedandreflecttheexposureofasmallnumberofvulnerablepeopletofrequentflooding.
Whenconsideredfromthisperspective,otherareasemergeasexperiencinghighlevelsof
disadvantage,suchasWestSomerset,forexample,wherehighlylocalised(individualand
communitybased)approachesmaybeneededtomanagefloodrisks.

AcrosstheHighlandsofScotland,Cardiff,Enfield,NorthSomerset,TowerHamletsandHaringeythe
rateofincreaseinSFRIissignificantlyhigherthanelsewhere.Intheseauthorities,theSFRIinthe
futureismuchgreaterthantoday.

Citiesindeclineandtheirinfluenceonflooddisadvantage
Cityregionsinrelativeeconomicdeclinetendtoexperiencelevelsofflooddisadvantageabove
theUKaverage;suggestingfloodriskcouldundermineeconomicgrowthinareasthatneedit
most.
Belfast,Grimsby,GlasgowandHullareallexamplesofstrugglingcitieswheretheflood
disadvantageismuchhigherthantheUKaverage.

Sixteenofthe24citiesclassedasinrelativedeclinebyPikeetal.(2016)experiencelevelsofflood
disadvantageabovetheUKaverage.Thisreflectsacombinationofinfluencesbutisdrivenbyhigher
thanaveragelevelsofvulnerability(asshownbytheNFVI)andagreaterthanaveragenumberof
peopleexposedtofrequentflooding(inGlasgow,forexample,thoselivinginthefloodplainare
almosttwiceaslikelytoexperiencefrequentfloodingthantheUKaverage).Whenincomeand
insurancepenetrationareconsidered,therelativeeconomicpainassociatedwithfloodingis
significantlyhigherinthesesixteencities,reflectingthelowerlevelsofincome(onaverage)and
lowerlevelsofinsurance.

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

SuitabilityofdeprivationasaguideforFRMinvestment
TheIndexofMultipleDeprivation(IMD)failstoidentifyallareasofgreatestfloodvulnerability;
withfloodriskinthemostvulnerableareas(definedbytheNFVI)consistentlygreaterthanthat
indeprivedareas(definedbytheIMD).

TheUKgovernmentcollectsdataondeprivationacrossarangeofdomains(includingincome,
health,housingquality,availabilityofservices)associatedwithgeographicareas.Thesearethen
combinedintoameasureofmultipledeprivation(theIndexofMultipleDeprivation,IMD)andused
acrossgovernmenttounderstandthedistributionofsocialinequalitiesassociatedwitha
neighbourhoodandtoinformresourceallocation.TheIMDisnothoweverameasureofflood
vulnerabilityperseandfloodriskinthemostvulnerableareas(asdefinedhereusingthe
NeighbourhoodFloodVulnerabilityIndex)isconsistentlygreaterthanindeprivedareas(asdefined
bytheIMD).ThissuggeststhattheIMDfailstoidentifyallthoseareasthatareatgreatestflood
disadvantage.GiventheroleoftheIMDinFRMpolicyacrosstheUK(includingsupportingthe
identificationofinvestmentprioritiesinEnglandthroughtheFDGiA)thesedifferencesmaybe
significantandraisequestionsoverwhethertheIMDisthemostappropriatemeasureforpromoting
RawlsianprincipleswithinFRMinvestmentdecisions.

Recentdevelopmentsinvulnerableneighbourhoods(England)
Recentdevelopments(200814)inareaspronetofrequentcoastalandsurfacewaterflooding
(1in75yearsormorefrequent)havedisproportionallytakenplaceinthemostvulnerable
neighbourhoods.
Bythe2080salldevelopmentsbuiltbetween200814willexperienceasignificantincreasein
exposuretoflooding.Acrossallsourcesoffloodingtheincreaseisgreatestinthose
developmentsbuiltinthemostvulnerableneighbourhoods(butthisisparticularlythecasein
coastalfloodplains).

AnalysisbytheAdaptationSubCommittee(ASC)ofnewdevelopmentsbuiltbetween200814found
thatfloodplaindevelopmentcontinues(ASC,2015).Furtherreviewofthisanalysishighlightsthatof
the1,199,000newresidentialdevelopmentsbuiltintheperiod200814(ASC,2015),225,000(or
20%)werebuiltinfloodproneareas(acrossallsources)withoneinfourofthosepropertiesbeing
builtinthe20%mostvulnerableneighbourhoods.Vulnerableneighbourhoodsincoastalandsurface
waterfloodplainshaveexperiencedgreatestdisproportionalityindevelopment.Forcoastal
floodplainsandsurfacewaterproneareas,newpropertiesare~20%morelikelytobeinareasprone
tomorefrequentflooding(1:75orgreater)forthe20%mostvulnerableneighbourhoodsthanforall
neighbourhoods.

Bythe2080salldevelopmentsbuiltbetween200814willexperienceasignificantincreaseintheir
exposuretoflooding.Acrossallsourcesoffloodingtheincreaseisgreatestinthosedevelopments
builtinthemostvulnerableneighbourhoods;adiscrepancythatismostsignificantatthecoast.

LongterminvestmentinEngland:Evidenceforgreaterinvestmentinvulnerableneighbourhoods
Thereisstrongevidencetosupportimprovingtheprotectionprovidedtothemostvulnerable
neighbourhoods.

vi

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

ReanalysisoftheoptimisedinvestmentscenarioinEnglandwithintheLTIS(usedtosupportthecase
forinvestmentinfloodriskmanagement,EnvironmentAgency,2014)highlightsalongterm
economiccaseforimprovingtheprotectionaffordedtovulnerablecommunities,suggestingthereis
bothaneconomicandasocialjusticeargumentforimprovingprotection.Itisalsoclearthatincome
(andconsequentlyhealth)areimportantdriversoffloodvulnerabilityandaredirectlyinfluencedby
broaderwelfare,socialandeconomicpolicy.TheopportunitytoenhanceFRMoutcomes,broader
policyareaswillberequiredtoaddresslocalisedflooddisadvantage.Thiswillincluderecognisingthe
linkagebetweengreeninfrastructureresponses,suchasSustainableUrbanDrainageSystems
(SUDS),andthewiderhealthandwellbeingbenefitstheyprovide.Itwillalsobeincreasingly
importanttorecognisetheroleofplanning/welfareorothersocialpolicyinterventionsplayineither
increasingoroffsettingflooddisadvantage(byputtingmorepeopleintoareasexposedtoriskinthe
caseofplanningorincreasingvulnerabilitythroughcutstowelfarebenefitsaffectingincomes).

Policygapsandrecommendations
Twoimportantpolicyfindingsemergefromtheanalysis:(i)thedistributionoffloodrisktoday
suggeststhat,ingeneral,vulnerableneighbourhoodshavefarednodifferentlycomparedtoless
vulnerableneighbourhoodsand,insomeinstances,areatgreaterrisktoday,and(ii)thedistribution
offloodriskinthefuturesuggeststhelargestincreasesinfloodriskwill,inmanyinstances,be
experiencedbythoseareaswhicharecurrentlymostvulnerable.Thisdoesnotimplythatthe
currentpolicyframeworkiswhollyinadequate;therearemanygoodexamplesoftheprogressive
policystatementsacrosstheUKthatacknowledgetheneedtoreducefloodriskforvulnerable
communitiesandoftenrefertoprioritisingvulnerablegroups.Despitethesehighlevelaimsanew
approachisneededthatrequiresFRMpolicytomoreeffectivelysupportbroadersocioeconomic
goals(includinginclusiveandsustainablegrowth).DoingsowillrequireastrongerRawlsian
approachtopositivediscrimination(insupportofthemostvulnerable)tobeadoptedalongside
utilitarianandegalitariangoals.

Sevenpolicyrecommendationsaremadetoaidthistransition,namely:

#1Introducenewmetricsthatbetterreflectthenatureoffloodvulnerabilityandtherisksfacedby
vulnerableneighbourhoods.

Theresearchpresentedherereinforcestheinabilityofexistingmetricstocapturethedifferential
natureofthefloodrisksfacedbysociallyvulnerablecommunities.Toovercomethedeficienciesin
existingapproaches,thethree(new)metricsareintroducedherewhichshouldbeconsideredin
FRMdecisionmaking:NeighbourhoodFloodVulnerabilityIndex(NFVI)tobetteridentifythemost
vulnerablecommunities;SocialFloodRiskIndex(SFRI)tobetterunderstandthecombinationof
probability,exposureandvulnerability;andRelativeEconomicPain(REP)tobetterunderstand
howissuesoflowerincomeandlesseffectiveinsuranceimpactthesignificanceoffloodrisk.

#2Reconfigureoutcomemeasurestomonitorflooddisadvantagebaseduponabetter
understandingoffloodvulnerability.

TosomedegreeFRMpoliciesacrosstheUKpromotethenotionoftargetingefforttowards
managingtheriskforthemostvulnerablepopulations;yetthereisnoroutineassessmentofthe
extenttowhichpoliciesachievethis(notwithstandingthatinEnglandoutcomesforhouseholdsin
vii

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

deprivedareasaremonitored).Todoso,alternativeapproachescouldincludeassessinglevelsof
systemicflooddisadvantage(byroutinelyrecordingacomparisonoftheriskfacedbythemoreand
lessvulnerable)aswellasgeographicflooddisadvantage(focusing,forexample,onthenumberof
homesprotectedinthemostvulnerableneighbourhoodsdefinedbyNFVIandrankinglocal
authoritiesbySFRIwithcleartargetstoreduceriskintheworstaffectedneighbourhoods).

#3EmbedpositivediscriminationinFRMinvestmentdecisionstotargetsupporttothemost
vulnerablecommunities.

ManyFRMpolicydocumentsacrossEngland,Wales,ScotlandandNorthernIrelandrefertoreducing
vulnerability.Theonlyformalmechanismfortargetinginvestmenttowardsthemostvulnerable
neighbourhoodshoweverisinEngland(throughthepreferentialweightinggiventoprotecting
householdsprotectedindeprivedareas,asdefinedbytheIMD).Thisprocessappearstohavehad
somesuccess,withthesystemicflooddisadvantagelowestinEngland(whenviewedatanational
scaleforeachUKnationandbasedonthenumberofpeopleexposedtofrequentflooding).Across
theUKhowevertheseheadlinefindingsmaskareaswheredisadvantageremainssignificant,
includingatthecoast,inurbanareasinrelativeeconomicdecline,andmanydispersedrural
communities.

Furtherworkisneededtoformaliseapproachesthathelpvulnerablepeopletoreducetheirflood
risk.Thismayinvolveformalisingthepreferentialtargetingofinvestmenttowardshelpingthe
vulnerablepeopleinawaythatrecognisesthecontextofthecommunitiesinwhichtheylive(for
example,thismayrequireareframingthepartnershipfundingformulainEnglandtobetterreflect
thedifferentialabilitytopaybetweenbusinesseslocatedinmoreandlessvulnerable
neighbourhoods).Indoingso,itshouldalsoberecognisedthatfloodinghasasignificantimpacton
thepublicpurse,includingsignificantandlongtermphysicalandmentalhealthimpacts(Waiteet
al.,2017),whichalsosupporttheinvestmentcaseforreducingfloodriskforthemostvulnerable.

#4EnsureFRMactivelysupportsinclusivegrowth,thedeliveryofmultifunctionalandresilient
developmentswhilstcontinuingtodeliverfloodriskreductionbenefits.

Lowincomeandpoorhealthareimportantdriversofvulnerabilitytoflooding.Thesearemost
directlyinfluencedbyagendasoutsideofFRMpolicy(includingeconomicandwelfarepolicesaswell
assustainabledevelopmentinitiativessuchasthosepromotedbyLocalEnterprisePartnerships).
EnsuringFRMpolicyplaysaproactiveroleinsupportingbroaderagendas,andpromote
interventionsthatnotonlydeliverriskreductionbutalsocobenefitsforhealth,wellbeingand
amenity(forexample,byusinggreeninfrastructureresponseswherepossible).

#5Improvetakeupofappropriatepropertylevelmeasuresandwidercommunitylevelapproaches
invulnerableneighbourhoods.

Governmentsupporthaspreviouslybeenmadeavailabletolocalauthoritiesintheaftermathofa
floodtoprovidesupporttohouseholderstofundmeasureswhichimproveapropertysresilienceor
resistancetodamagefromflooding,overandaboverepairsthatwouldnormallybecoveredby
insurance.Evidencefromlocalcasestudiesforthisstudyhoweversuggeststhetakeupofsuch
grantsissignificantlylowerinvulnerablecommunitiesthaninthepopulationaswholeand
viii

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

highlightssixissuesthatwillbeneededtoimprovethetakeupofappropriatepropertylevel
measures,including:(i)Theneedforanongoinggrantschemetargetedtowardssupportingflood
disadvantagedareas(notonlyinreactiontofloodevents);(ii)Streamliningaccesstograntsforthe
mostvulnerable;(iii)Removing/reducingtheneedforthemostvulnerabletoprovidesupplementary
funding;(iv)Raisingawarenessofboththefloodrisksfaced,theavailabilityofgrantsandreputable
contractorsandproducts;(v)Supportingtheroleofintermediariesinenablingindividualandwhole
communitiestoaccessfinancialaid,appropriatelyinstallandmaintainmeasures(e.g.drawingupon
theNationalFloodForum,localresiliencefora,floodactiongroupsandotherlocalroutes);and(vi)
Continuingtodevelopacomplementaryapproachwithinsuranceproviderstoincentivise/require
appropriatepropertylevelmeasurestobeinplace.

#6Improveaccesstoappropriateinsuranceforthemostvulnerablebydevelopinganinsurance
mechanismthatbridgesthegapintakeupbetweenthemoreandlessvulnerable.

Whenincomeandinsurancepenetration(afunctionoftenureandincome)areconsidered,theREP
associatedwithfloodingissignificantlyhigherinfloodvulnerableneighbourhoodsthanelsewhere.
Addressingthecomplexissuesthatexistinprovidingeffectiveinsuranceinvulnerable
neighbourhoods(includingthoseassociatedwithaffordability,excesses,capability,awareness,and
tenure)implythesolutiondoesnotliewithfloodpolicyaloneandagreatercoherencebetween
widerhousingandwelfarepolicytogetherwithfloodinsuranceapproacheswillberequired.Inthe
shorttermthisshouldincludeevolvinginsurancesolutionsforlowincomehouseholds(withinthe
periodofFloodRe)tobettersupportaffordable,andappropriate,insuranceforvulnerablepeople.

#7Betterreflectthedifferentialnatureofthelongtermfloodrisksfacedinvulnerable
neighbourhoodswithinnationalplanningpolicyandlocalguidance.

Toavoidexacerbatingflooddisadvantagethroughinappropriatenewdevelopment,national
planningpoliciesandlocalplanningapproachesshouldberevisitedto:(i)Takealongtermviewthat
includesconsiderationofmoreextreme,butplausible,climatechange;(ii)Ensureopportunitiesfor
bluegreenresponsesaretaken(e.g.sustainableurbandrainagesystemsthatpromotegreenspaces
anddeliveradditionalhealthandwellbeingbenefitsthatacttoreducefloodvulnerabilityin
additiontofloodhazards);(iii)Ensurenewdevelopmentsarefloodresilient;and(iv)Givegreater
considerationtothefloodvulnerabilityoflikelyinhabitantsofanynewdevelopment.The
opportunityprovidedthroughtheHousingWhitePaper(Fixingourbrokenhousingmarket,DCLG,
2017)shouldbeusedtopromotethesegoalsandensuregreateraccountistakenoffloodriskin
lightofclimatechangeinthefuturedevelopmentofvulnerableneighbourhoods.

#8Ensurefloodeventsdonotdivertsignificantfundsinappropriatelyfrommanagingriskinmore
vulnerableareasanddonotforeclosemoresustainablelongertermoptions.

Itiswellknownthatfunding,inpartatleast,respondstopublicoutrage.Thiscanleadtothose
withtheloudestvoicebeingprioritisedoverthosewiththegreatestneed.Investmentmadein
responsetoafloodeventshouldbeadditionalinvestment,andnotundermineestablished
investmentprocessesordivertfundsthathavebeencommittedelsewhere.Wheretheyaremade,
theymustavoidforeclosingfuturechoices(e.g.decisionsmadeinhastemaybecounterto
providingalongertermsolutionincluding,forexample,relocatingcommunitieswhenprotection
ix

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

throughconventionalFRMapproachesisnolongerfeasible).Understandinghowtorespondto
emergencieswhilsttransitioningtowardsamoresustainableapproach(thatmayrequirea
transformativeapproachinthefaceofclimatechange)isasignificantchallenge.Todosoina
sociallyjustwaywillrequireacombinationofcommunityinvolvementandapolicyimperativeto
establishobjectiveswithcommunitiesandagreehowthesecanbeachievedtosupportasustainable
future(providingtheproceduraljusticetoensurethatthoseinvolvedhavetheirvoiceheard).

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

TheinvestigatorsaregratefultotheJosephRowntreeFoundation(JRF)fortheopportunitytowork
onthisinterestingandimportantissue.ThesupportandguidanceoftheJRFteam,theProject
AdvisoryGroupandthepolicymeetingandcasestudystakeholdersisgratefullyacknowledged,
specifically:

JosephRowntreeFoundation
KatharineKnox:Clientlead

ProjectAdvisoryGroup
NeilAdger:ExeterUniversity
PaulCobbing:NationalFloodForum
JacquiCotton:EnvironmentAgency
KitEngland:ClimateReadyClyde,Sniffer
ManuelaDiMauro:CommitteeonClimateChange
JaapFlikweert:RHDHV
RhysHobbs:EnvironmentAgency
KateKipling:EnvironmentAgency
SarahLindley:UniversityofManchester
TimMaiden:CAGconsultants
PaulMurby:Defra
AmandaNobbsOBE:ChairofThamesRegionalFloodDefenceCommittee
TimPreece:Defra
StacySharman:Defra
LauraHughes:AssociationofBritishInsurers
ClareTwiggerRoss:CollingwoodEnvironmentalPlanning

Policymeetings:Stakeholdersengaged
England
RobbieCraig:Defra
PaulMurby:Defra
JosePoncelaBlanco:Defra
TimPreece:Defra
StacySharman:Defra
MikeSteel:EnvironmentAgency
MaryStevens:Defra

NorthernIreland
LindaMacHugh:DepartmentofInfrastructure
JonathanMcKee:RiversAgency

Scotland
CarolBrown:ScottishGovernment
xi

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

DebiGarft:ScottishGovernment
KirstyIrvingandPaulLaidlaw:ScottishFloodForum
MarkMcLaughlinandMarionShoote:ScottishEnvironmentProtectionAgency

Wales
JoanneAmesbury:WelshGovernment
DavidThomas:WelshGovernment

SayersandPartnersTeam
PaulSayers:Leadcontractor:SayersandPartnersLLP
MattHorritt:HorrittConsulting
EdmundPenningRowsellOBE:FloodHazardResearchCentre
JessieFieth:Researchsupport

AdditionalcontributionsfromAnnaRobotham(aMastersStudent,UniversityofOxford)arealso
gratefullyacknowledged.

xii

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

TABLEOFCONTENTS

Contents
1.0 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................1

1.1 Contextandobjectives......................................................................................................1

1.2 RationaleforaUKscaleapproach......................................................................................1

1.3 Reportstructure................................................................................................................3

2.0 CONCEPTS:FLOODRESILIENCE,SOCIALJUSTICEANDDISADVANTAGE...............................4

2.1 Floodresilience.................................................................................................................4

2.2 Socialjustice......................................................................................................................6

2.3 Flooddisadvantage...........................................................................................................13

3.1 Overview..........................................................................................................................14

3.2 Analysismethod...............................................................................................................16

3.3 Metricsoffloodexposure,vulnerabilityandrisk..............................................................23

3.4 Geographiesofflooddisadvantage...................................................................................29

3.5 Validityofapproach.........................................................................................................31

4.0 ANALYSISRESULTS:FINDINGSANDDISCUSSION...............................................................33

4.1 Floodplainpopulation,vulnerabilityandexposuretofrequentflooding...........................33

4.2 Expectedannualdamagesandtheinfluenceofincomeandinsurance.............................38

4.3 Urbanandruralinfluencesonflooddisadvantage............................................................44

4.4 Localauthoritiesandflooddisadvantage..........................................................................47

4.5 Citiesindeclineandtheirinfluenceonflooddisadvantage...............................................54

4.6 SuitabilityofdeprivationasaguideforFRMinvestment................................................55

4.7 Recentdevelopmentsinvulnerableneighbourhoods(England)........................................57

4.8 LongterminvestmentinEngland:Evidenceforgreaterinvestmentinvulnerable
neighbourhoods...............................................................................................................60

xiii

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

5.0 CONCLSUIONSANDPOLICYRECOMMENDATIONS............................................................62

5.1 ReconfigureexistingFRMmetrics.....................................................................................62

5.2 SetclearsocialoutcomesforFRMandmeasuresuccess...................................................62

5.3 EnsureFRMinvestmentappropriatelytargetsthemostvulnerable..................................63

5.4 EnsureFRMactivelysupportsintegratedsolutions...........................................................64

5.5 Improvetakeupofpropertylevelprotectionandcommunitylevelmeasures.................65

5.6 Improveaccesstoaffordableinsurance............................................................................65

5.7 Improvespatialplanninganddevelopmentcontrolprocesses..........................................66

5.8 Maintainasociallyjustprocess........................................................................................66

6.0 GLOSSARY,ACROYNMSANDREFERENCES........................................................................68

6.1 Glossary............................................................................................................................68

6.2 Abbreviations...................................................................................................................71

6.3 References........................................................................................................................72

7.0 APPENDICES.....................................................................................................................78

xiv

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

LISTOFTABLES

Table21Socialjusticeandfloodriskmanagement..............................................................................7

Table31Vulnerabilityandriskmetricsusedtodeterminethedegreeofsocialfloodresilience........24

Table32NeighbourhoodFloodVulnerabilityIndex:Indicatorsandsupportingvariables..................27

Table33SettlementtypesusedintheUK...........................................................................................29

Table41Presentday:Populationoffloodproneareas.......................................................................35

Table42Presentday:Peopleexposedtofrequentflooding(1:75yearsormorefrequent)...............35

Table43Presentday:LocalauthoritiesrankedbySocialFloodRiskIndexandtheirranking
againstallothermetrics..........................................................................................................48

Table44Presentday:LocalauthoritiesrankedbySocialFloodRiskIndex:Individualandtheir
rankingagainstallothermetrics.............................................................................................50

Table46Futurerisks:LocalauthoritiesrankedbySocialFloodRiskIndex(2020s,2050sand
2080s).......................................................................................................................................53

Table47Presentday:Newdevelopmentinareaspronetoflooding(built200814)and
vulnerability.............................................................................................................................58

Table48TheLTISpolicyoptions..........................................................................................................60

Table49TherelationshipofLTISpolicychoicesandneighbourhoodvulnerability.............................61

xv

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

LISTOFFIGURES

Figure11Reportstructure.....................................................................................................................3

Figure21Threeprinciplesconsideredheretoinfluenceasociallyjustapproachtofloodrisk
management..............................................................................................................................6

Figure31Frameworkofanalysis.........................................................................................................14

Figure32Exogenousdriversoffuturechangeinfloodrisk.................................................................15

Figure33Endogenouschange:Adaptationmeasuresconsidered......................................................16

Figure34CCAimpactcurve:Examplerelationshipreturnperiodvs.impactusedwithintheFFE
(Sayersetal,2015)...................................................................................................................18

Figure35Therelationshipbetweentenureandhouseholdswithnofloodinsurance........................22

Figure36NeighbourhoodFloodVulnerabilityIndex:Influentialdomainsandindicators..................26

Figure37Economicsetting:Citiesinrelativedecline(Pikeetal.,2016).............................................31

Figure41Presentday:Driversofneighbourhoodvulnerabilityatthecoast......................................35

Figure42Presentday:Concentrationofpeoplelivinginthefloodplain.............................................36

Figure43Futurechange:No.ofpeopleinfloodproneareas:Bycountry..........................................37

Figure44Futurechange:Exposuretofrequentflooding:Byfloodsource..........................................37

Figure45Presentday:ContributiontoExpectedAnnualDamagesBycountry................................38

Figure46Presentday:ExpectedAnnualDamagesByfloodsource..................................................39

Figure47Presentday:ContributiontoExpectedAnnualDamagesByfloodsource........................39

Figure48Presentday:ExpectedAnnualDamages:IndividualBycountry.......................................40

Figure49Presentday:RelativeeconomicpainByfloodsource.......................................................40

Figure410Presentday:SpatialdistributionofExpectedAnnualDamages(EAD)..............................41

Figure411Futurechange:ExpectedAnnualDamagesBycountry...................................................43

Figure412Futurechange:RelativeeconomicpainBycountry.........................................................43

Figure413Presentday:Acomparisonoffloodriskinruralandurbansettings.................................45

Figure414Futurerisks:ChangeinExpectedAnnualDamages(m)bysettlementtype...................46
xvi

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Figure415Presentday:Socialfloodriskindex(SFRI)..........................................................................47

Figure416HullandWestSomerset:Contextualdifferencesinthedriversofgeographicflood
disadvantage............................................................................................................................51

Figure417Futurerisks:Changesingeographicflooddisadvantage(SFRI:Individual)......................52

Figure418CityregionsinRelativeDecline:RelativeEconomicPainofflooding................................54

Figure419Presentday:Acomparisonofrisksindeprivedandvulnerableneighbourhoods.............56

Figure420Presentandfutureexposureofnewdevelopmentstoflooding........................................57

Figure421Futurerisks:Growthinthenumberofrecentdevelopments(200814)exposedto
flooding....................................................................................................................................59

Figure422PercentageofresidentialpropertiesinareasreceivingeachLTISPolicychoice...............61

xvii

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Contextandobjectives

Developingabetterunderstandingoffloodvulnerablecommunitiesandtheriskstheyfaceisa
prerequisitetodeliveringasociallyjust(i.e.fair)approachtoprioritisingfloodriskmanagement
(FRM)effortswithinnationalpolicyandfundingstructures.SuchanapproachemphasisesRawlsian
principlesofpreferentiallytargetingriskreductionforthemostvulnerable,andavoidsaprocessof
prioritisationbaseduponstrictutilitarianorpurelyegalitarianprinciples(Johnsonetal.,2007).

Socialvulnerabilityinthecontextoffloodsrelatestohowfloodingimpactsonandcreateslossesin
peopleswellbeing(Tapselletal.,2004,Lindleyetal.,2011).Deliveringsociallyjustfloodrisk
management(FRM)thusrequirestwocentralissuestobeaddressed.Thefirstrelatestothe
geographicflooddisadvantage(GFD).GFDenablesthosecommunitieswherehighlevelsofsocial
vulnerabilitycombinewithalargenumberofpeopleexposedtofloodingtobeidentifiedand
resourcesappropriatelydirected.Thesecondrelatestothesystemicflooddisadvantage(SFD).SFD
comparesthefloodrisksfacedbymoreandlessvulnerablecommunities.Indoingso,SFDenables
thedegreetowhichFRMpolicy(anditsimplementationinpractice)canbeconsideredsuccessfulin
deliveringsociallyjustoutcomes.

TheanalysispresentedherebuildsuponpreviousresearchfundedbytheJosephRowntree
Foundation(JRF)(EnglandandKnox,2015;Lindleyetal.,2011)tounderstandbothgeographicand
systemicaspectsofflooddisadvantageandhowthesemaychangeinthefutureinresponseto
exogenousinfluences(e.g.climatechangeandpopulationchange)andendogenousinfluences(e.g.
FRMpolicyanditsbroaderimpactsonissuessuchasinsurance).Todoso,futurechangesinGFD
andSFD(throughtothe2080s)arealsoexploredthroughacombinationofquantifiedanalysisata
UKscale(usingtheFutureFloodExplorer,UKFFE,Sayersetal.,2016)andengagementwithnational
andlocalstakeholders.Basedonthisevidenceaseriesofpolicyrecommendationsaremadewith
theaimofpromotingsocialjusticeandimprovingresilienceinthemostvulnerablecommunities
acrosstheUK.

Objectives
Tobetterunderstandthegeographicandsystemicnatureofflooddisadvantagetheanalysisseeks
to:

(i) Identifythoseneighbourhoodsatgreatestflooddisadvantagenowandinthefuture(throughto
the2020s,2050sand2080s)acrosstheUK;
(ii) AssessthedegreetowhichFRMcanbeconsideredsociallyjust;and
(iii) Identifypolicygapsandrecommendpolicychangestoimprovefloodresilienceandreduce
disadvantage.

1.2 RationaleforaUKscaleapproach

Nationalassessmentsoffloodriskarewidelyrecognisedasprovidingimportantevidencetoinform
policydecisions.SuchassessmentshavebeenpursuedactivelybytheEnvironmentAgencysince
2002(coveringEnglandandWales,Sayersetal.,2002)andtheirpredecessorssince1998,andmore
1

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

recentlybyScottishEnvironmentProtectionAgency(SEPA)since2011.Thisimportancearises
becauseoftheroleofanationalleveldeterminationofriskinsettingthepaceofadaptationand
shapingthepolicyresponseandresourceinputs(e.g.Defra,2011).Thisimportancehasbeen
furtherstrengthenedthroughtheClimateChangeAct2008thatsrequiresaUKwideClimate
ChangeRiskAssessment(CCRA)tobeundertakenonafiveyearlycyclethatisindependentof
nationalleadsbutinfluencesthescaleandfocusofadaptationmeasures(CCC,2016).

Theevidenceprovidedtopolicymakers(eitherataUKornationalscale)has,todate,includedvery
limitedinsightintoflooddisadvantage.TheassessmentoffuturefloodriskaspartoftheCCRA
(Sayersetal.,2015),forexample,suggeststhatina+4oCclimatefuture(ahigh,butplausible
assumption),floodriskislikelytoincreasedespiteongoingeffortstoadaptandtheadoptionofan
enhancedwholesystemsapproachtoadaptation.AlthoughtheCCRAhighlightstheissueof
currentflooddisadvantageinthediscussionofcrosscuttingconcerns,(Chapter8,Streetetal.,2016)
itsayslittleaboutfutureflooddisadvantageorthepolicyresponsesthatmaybeneededto
specificallytargetvulnerablecommunities.InEngland,theEnvironmentAgencysprogrammeof
floodandcoastalerosionriskmanagementsetsoutasixyearinvestmentplan(20152021)for
capitalspendingonFRM,whichincludes2.5billionofpublicinvestment4.Thereis,however,
limitedalignmentbetweenplannedinvestmentandareaswherehighlevelsofvulnerabilityand
exposurecombine(EnglandandKnox,2015).ThisisdespiteaninitialanalysisoftheEnvironment
AgencysLongTermInvestmentScenarios(LTIS)(EnvironmentAgency,2014a)suggestingthat,
basedpurelyonanoptimisedcost/benefitappraisal,themostdeprivedcommunities(asdefinedby
theIndexofMultipleDeprivations,IMD)shouldbeprioritised(Sayersetal.,2016).

ThefocusofFRMisalsochanging,awayfromanarroweconomicriskfocustowardsabroader
resiliencefocus.ThenationalFloodResilienceCommunityPathfindersScheme(201315),for
example,soughttostimulateinnovativeapproachestocommunityFRMandenablecommunities
exposedtofloodingtoworkwithkeypartnerstodevelopinnovativelocalsolutions(Defra,2013).
Anearlyreviewofthisprogrammehoweverhighlightssomeofthedifficultiesinunderstandingwhat
ismeantbyresilience,andhowthisunderstandingshapesthenatureofthesolutionsproposed,
notingthewayresilienceisframedwillleadtodifferentactionsandemphases(TwiggerRossetal.,
2014).Withinthisreport,resilienceisconsideredinthecontextoffloodrisk(acombinationof
vulnerability,exposureandprobability)andhowtheserisksmaychangeintime.Toavoid
traditionaleconomicbias(acriticismoftenleviedatanarrowriskbasedapproach),conventional
riskmetricshavebeensupplementedwiththosethatseektocapturethebroadnatureof
communityfloodresilience(seeChapter3).TheTwiggerRossetal.,studiesalsorevealedthe
importantrolecommunitynetworks(betweenmembersofcommunitiesandmoreformal
organisations)playinbothfloodvulnerabilityandresilience;afindingsupportedbyFazeyetal.,
(2016)thathighlightstheinteractionsbetweenhouseholdbudgetsandcommunitycapacityaspinch

4https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/programmeoffloodandcoastalerosionriskmanagementschemes.AccessedMay2017

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

pointsinthesystemandtakenforwardhereindevelopmentoftheNeighbourhoodFlood
VulnerabilityIndex(NFVI)(seeChapter3).

ThepoliticalframeworkwithinwhichFRMisdeliveredisalsochangingthroughtheongoingprocess
ofdevolution,aprocessthathasthepotentialtoalterthepowersandcompetenciesoflocaland
nationalauthoritiesaswellasregions.Thesechangesmayaltertherelationshipbetweencentral
andlocalGovernmentandhencethewayissuesofsocialjusticeareembeddedinFRMinvestment
decisionsaswellasmoregenerallyinLocalEnterprisePartnerships(LEPS)andbroaderwelfareand
socialpolicy(includinginclusiveandsustainablegrowth).

1.3 Reportstructure

TheresearchfindingsareprovidedthroughaMainReport(thisreport)andaseriesofsupporting
appendices(Figure11).

Chapter1 Providesthebackgroundtotheprojectand
Introduction setstheobjectives

Exploresthemeaningofresilience,social
Chapter2
justiceanddisadvantageandtheir
Concepts: Floodresilience, socialjusticeand disadvantage relationshiptofloodmanagement
Setsouttheanalysisapproach,thequantified
Chapter3
metricsandgeographiclensesusedto
Analysis approach exploreresilienceanddisadvantage

Chapter4 Presentstheassessmentofpresentand
Results futurerisks(for2020s,2050sand2080s)

Chapter5 Recapstheapproachandtheheadlineresults
Conclusions fromtheassessment

Chapter6 Distilstheresultsintospecificmessagesfor
Policyrecommendations policymakers

Glossary,abbreviationsandreferences

Appendices:
A:Datasourcesandresolutionoftheassociatedanalysis
B:Neighbourhoodfloodvulnerabilityindex:Detaileddescription
C:Exogenouschange:Climateandpopulationchange
D:Endogenouschange:Adaptationmeasures
E:Consultations:Policyengagementandlocalcasestudies

Figure11Reportstructure

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

2.0 CONCEPTS:FLOODRESILIENCE,SOCIALJUSTICEANDDISADVANTAGE

2.1 Floodresilience

Fourcharacteristicsofaresilientsystem
Noblueprintisavailableastowhatconstitutesresilienceinapracticalsense.Thereishoweveran
emergingconsensusonthefourcharacteristicsofaresilientsystemthataffectfloodresilience(e.g.
Sayersetal.,2012;TwiggerRossetal.,2014),namely:

(i) Resistance(anabilitytoresist):Anabilitytolimittheimmediateimpactofahazard(e.g.
throughtheappropriatedesignofcommunityandpropertyleveldefencesandensuringflood
warningservicesareeffective)andpreventdirectimpacts,whentheydooccur,fromcascading
tosecondaryandtertiaryimpacts(suchaslongertermfinancial,physicalormentalhealthissues
orthroughbusinesssupplychains).Afocusonresistancecanthereforebothreducedirectflood
impactsandhelpavoidtheirescalationthroughinterdependentnetworksatacommunity,
regional,nationalandevenglobalscale(e.g.througheconomies,Rinaldietal.,2001,
infrastructurenetworks,Halletal.,2013andecosystems,Sayersetal.,2014).These
interdependencesalsoexistatacommunitylevelandacttoeithersupportorunderminean
individualsabilitytoresistanimmediatelossofwellbeing(e.g.duetolossoflocalsupport
servicesordelayinreceivinghelp).Theseinteractionsarehowevercomplexandremainafocus
ofresearch.
(ii) Recovery(bounceback):Anabilityofanindividualorcommunitytorecoverrapidly(returnto
normality)fromafloodeventwithlimitedemergencyaid.Preeventmeasures,suchas
insuranceandemergencyserviceprovision,cansignificantlyimproverecoverytimesandmakea
legitimatecontributiontoresilience.
(iii) Adaptation(adjustingtoanewnormal):Anabilitytomodifyexistingapproaches(physical
defences,organisationalstructures,behaviouretc.)inresponsetoachangingsituation,
recognisingresilienceasadynamicandcontinuousprocessofadjustment.Adaptability
thereforereferstotheabilitytoenactaprocessofongoingmoderatechangeinapproach(e.g.
ahouseholdmaychoosetoinstallpropertylevelprotectionmeasureswhenmadeawareofthe
floodrisktheyface,orplannerscouldsupportadaptationmeasuresbeingincorporatedintonew
housingdevelopment).
(iv) Transformation(stepchange):Theforesightandabilitytomakeradicalchangestoavoidfuture
risksandgraspfutureopportunities(physical,social,ecological,economic)inatimelyandjust
manner.Numerousstudieshavehighlightedtheneedfortransformation(Evansetal.,
2004a&b,Fritzeetal.,2008;Sayersetal.,2014).Thereare,however,manypracticaland
politicaldifficultiesassociatedwithimplementingtransformationalchange.Forexample,many
ShorelineManagementPlansinEnglandpromoteaholdthelinepolicyintheshorttermanda
transitiontoretreatthelinebythe2050s(ASC,2013),butwithlimitedunderstandingofhowto
makethistransitioninawaythatisfairtothecommunitiesaffected.

Thefirsttwocharacteristicssupportthenotionofreactiveresiliencewheretheapproachtothe
futureistomaintainthestatusquoandthequestisforconstancyandstability(Doversand
Handmer,1992,citedinTwiggerRossetal.,2013).Thelasttwocharacteristicssupportthenotion
ofproactiveresilienceandtheacceptancethatchangeisinevitableandaresilientsystemisone
4

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

thatiscapableofthenecessarychange(DoversandHandmer,1992citedinTwiggerRossetal.,
2013).

Integratedperspectivesofresilience
Tounderstandresilienceallfouroftheaspectssetoutabovemustbeconsideredtogetherandin
thebroadestcontextpossible.Communityresilience,forexample,reflectsthelocalcapabilityto
planandpreparefor,respondtoandrecoverfromadverseeventsandbackgroundconditionsina
waythatreflectsthecontextofwidersocial,economicandenvironmentalchangebeyondfloods.In
doingso,communityresiliencehasthepotentialtodelivermultipleobjectives,includingclimate
mitigationandadaptation(forexample,activelyseekingmultifunctionalapproachesthatcombine
renewableenergyandflooddefence).Communityresiliencealsorequiresthecapabilitytolearn,
planandadapt(andeventransform)inwaysthatmitigatetheimpactsofadverseeventsinthe
longertermfuture(Burchelletal.,2017).Theideathatarangeofindividuals,voluntaryand
communitysectorgroupsandotherlocalorganisationsworktogethertoincreasethecommunitys
abilitytopreparefor,copewithandrecoverfromadverseeventsorconditionsisnowwell
established(UKCabinetOffice,2011).Theseactivitiestendtobeled,intheUKbutalsoelsewhere,
bylocalauthorityemergencyplanners(withinthecontextofaLocalResilienceForum)andoften
focusonmanagingshorttermrisksand,asaresult,arelesswellpositionedtoadoptmorestrategic
solutions(Burchelletal.,2017).Suchlongertermsolutionsarenecessarilyunderpinnedbysystems
thinkingandtheidentificationofcriticalnodesthatwillaffectoutcomesincludinghousehold
budgetsandcommunitycapacity(Fazeyetal.,2016).

Thisfocusonemergencyresponseisalsoreflectedatnationalscale(asshownbytheattentiongiven
toforecasting,warningandemergencyresponseintheNationalResilienceReview(HM
Government,2016)andunderpinnedbytherequirementsoftheCivilContingenciesAct,2004)with
limitedattentiongiventothelongerterm,moredifficult,transformativeactionsneededtobuild
communityandhouseholdagency,socialnetworks,relationshipsandlinksbetweeninformaland
formalgovernancestructures,supportingcapacitybuilding,sociallearningandorganisational
change.Infrastructureresilience(e.g.GuthrieandKonaris,2012),economicresilience(e.g.
Briguglioetal.,2008)andecologicalresilience(e.g.Walkeretal.,2004,Sayersetal.,2017)arealso
oftenusedtofocusattentionondifferentaspectsofhumannaturalsystems.

Presentandfuturesocialfloodresilience
Hazardfocusedperspectivesofresiliencearealsousedtosimplifytheissue(i.e.resiliencetoa
certaintypeofshockorlongtermchange,forexampleheat,droughtetc.)andthisisthecontext
here;socialfloodresilience.Althoughitisrecognisedthatitisnotsufficienttoconsiderresilience
fromtheperspectiveofasinglehazard,itisanecessarysteptochallengetraditionalFRMpracticeto
moveawayfromtheratherrestrictedfocusonresistanceandrecoverytoamorecollectiveconcept
ofresiliencethatinvolvesinterdisciplinaryexpertiseandaction,andtorecogniseresiliencebuilding
asaprocessinvolvingbuildingrelationshipsandresponsesacrossinstitutions,sectors,communities
andindividuals,thataddressesinteractingsystemicrisksandinterdependencies(e.g.ENSURE,2009;
Cutter,2010;Newmanetal.,2011;Liao,2012citedinTwiggerRossetal.,2013,Sayersetal.,2014,
Fazeyetal.,2016).

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Withinthisreport,thenotionofsocialfloodresilienceisexploredthroughaseriesofquantified
metrics(discussedlaterinSection3.3)evaluatedataneighbourhoodlevel.Inthiscontext,itis
assumedaprerequisitetoenhancingresilience(acrosstheseperspectives)isthemanagementof
risk(andreducinghazard,exposureandvulnerability).Understandingthecomplexsocialdynamics
andthebroaderevolutionofresilienceisoutsidethescopeofthisreport.

2.2 Socialjustice

Policylegitimacyisanimportantconsiderationinthepolicymakingcycle,andissuesofsocialjustice
canhelptoinformpolicymakersapproaches.Thisreportconsidershowtheseconceptsinform
presentdayapproachestoFRMandhowtheymaybeusedtoguidefutureadaptation.Interpreting
socialjusticeinthecontextoffloodriskmanagementisnothoweverstraightforward.Thisis
becausejusticeisoftenconsideredfromtheperspectiveofutilitarianism(asfirstproposedby
JeremyBenthamandJohnMills),egalitarianism(rightsbasedtheories)andRawlsian(JohnRawls,
1971)approaches(Figure21).TheinfluenceofeachapproachinthecontextofFRMissummarised
inTable21anddiscussedbelow.

RawlsDifference
Egalitarianism Principle Utilitarianism
(Allcitizenstreatedequally
(MaximinRule) (Optionschosentomaximise
includingdistributiveand
returnonresourcesused)
proceduralprocesses) (Optionschosentoassistthe
mostvulnerable)

Figure21Threeprinciplesconsideredheretoinfluenceasociallyjustapproachtofloodrisk
management

Utilitarianism
Utilitarianismstatesthattheactionthatleadstothebestconsequencesisthemorallypreferred
action,andthattheconsequencesofinterestshouldhaveintrinsicvalue(e.g.beauty,love,health,
friendship)andnotsimplyinstrumentalvalue(e.g.money,thatenablesyoutobuyotherthings).In
practiceutilitarianismoftendefaulttoarathernarrowlydefinedcostbenefitapproach(whereonly
thosebenefitsandcoststhatcanbereadilymonetisedareincluded).Suchapproachisoften
criticizedbecauseofthisnarrowfocusbutalsobecauseofitsfailuretoincludeanynotionof
distributivejustice(seeegalitarianismbelow).Appliedinisolation,suchanapproachwouldoften
suggestthatitispreferabletomaximisethecollectiveoutcomeforthemanytothedetrimentofthe
few,therebyprioritisingefficiencyovereffectiveness.

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Table21Socialjusticeandfloodriskmanagement

Justice Meaningfor
principle Rule/Criteria floodrisk Potentialimplicationsforfuturefloodriskmanagement
(type) management

Insomecountries,suchastheNetherlands,theprinciple
ofsolidarityseekstoprovideacommonminimumlevel
Rightsbased Everycitizen ofprotectiontoallindividuals(e.g.vanAlphen,2014).
approaches shouldhavean
thatseekto equal TheheterogeneityofthefloodriskinEnglandhowever
Egalitarian
ensureall opportunityto meansthatsuchanapproach,evenifachievableislikely
citizensare havetheirflood tobegrosslyinefficient(Defra,2004).Insteada
treatedequally. riskmanaged. consistentdecisionmakingprocessissought,for
example,enablingthoseatfloodriskafairchanceof
receivingtaxfundedinvestment.

Themostvulnerableindividualsandcommunitiesneedto
Optionsare
beidentifiedandplansdevelopedthatspecificallycater
Anapproach chosenthat
fortheirneeds.
basedon targetthemost
positive flood
Policyandplanningprocessestoincorporatebiasto
discrimination vulnerable
ensurepreferenceisgiventomanagingfloodriskfor
thatseeksto membersof
Rawlsian mostvulnerableindividualsandcommunities.Although
direct society(even
manypolicygoalspromotepreferentialtargetingofthe
resourcesto whengreater
mostvulnerable,theonlyformalexpressionofthis
thoseleastable economic
(knowntotheauthors)withinthedecisionmaking
tohelp returnscanbe
processisEnglandsFloodDefenceGrantinAidscheme,
themselves. found
althoughScotlandandWaleshavemoreinformal
elsewhere).
processes.

Aprioritisedprogrammeofinvestmentsthatprovidesthe
greatestreturn(reductionofrisk)foreachunitof
Thereturnon Assistance
resourceinvestment.
investmentis providedto
maximisedto thosemembers
Theadoptionofacommonapproachtotheassessment
ensurethe ofsocietyto
Utilitarian ofbenefitsandcoststoidentifythoseactionsthatyield
greatestrisk whichthe
thegreatestreturn(e.g.EnvironmentAgency,2010a).
reductionper benefitsoffer
Increasinglythisprocessreflectswholelifecostsandthe
unitofresource thegreatest
multibenefitsundermultiplefutures(althoughreadily
input. gaintosociety.
monetisedbenefitscontinuetodominatethisprocess
andpotentiallyunderminetheabilitytomaximiseutility).

Source:Sayersetal.,2016,extendedfromJohnsonetal.,2007;Sayersetal.,2014

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Utilitarianviewsofjustice,despitethisshortcoming,areattheheartofgovernmentpolicyasthis
approachrecognisespublicresourcesarelimitedandseekstomaximisethereturnoneveryunitof
resourceinvested.Inthiscontext,FRMcompeteswithalternativeinvestments(e.g.hospitals,
schoolsetc.)andthusefficiencyisafundamentalconsiderationininvestmentappraisaland
decisionmakingacrossgovernment(e.g.HMTreasury,2003)andcascadestoFRMschemeappraisal
guidance.AlthoughthisvariesindetailacrosstheUK,allapproachesarelargelybasedonissuesof
utilityseeforexampleEnvironmentAgency(2010)andWelshGovernment(2015).

Thedemonstrationofefficiencyreliesonanabilitytoquantifycostsandbenefitsforcompeting
investmentoptions.TheabilitytodosohowevervariesacrossdifferentFRMactivities.For
example,costsandbenefitsarelesswellunderstoodforfloodforecastingandwarningsystemsand
greeninfrastructureresponsescomparedtotraditionalengineeringsolutionsinvolvingcapital
investmentinflooddefences.Inpart,thisreflectstheinabilitytoattributecostsandbenefitsto
differentinterventionsanddifficultiesinbothquantifyingandmonetisingthefullrangeofbenefits
theyprovide.Inthecaseoffloodwarning,forexample,theprimaryfocusisonminimisinginjury
andlossoflife,asopposedtoreducingmaterialdamage.Thispresentsaprobleminmeasuring
efficiency,whichtypically(forreasonsofease)expressesinstrumentalvaluesinmonetarytermsand
mayexcludelesstangible,orlesseasilymonetised,benefits.

Inpractice,thisoftenleadstofailuretotakeaccountofcomplexexternalities,suchastheimpactof
climatechangeonalternativeFRMoptionsandthewidersocialimpactsofflooding(e.g.the
significantcostsofmentalhealthimpactsmaystillfallonthepublicpursebuttoothergovernment
departments)(Waiteetal.,2017).Thisisperhapsonedriverofthedevelopmentofmulticriteria
approachesthatseektocommunicateintrinsicvaluesandexpressconsequentialimpactsineasily
measurableunits(hectaresofhabitatcreated,numberofpeopleprotected,qualityoflifeadjusted
years(NIHCE,2009)andmonetiseonlythoseconsequenceswhereitiseasilydone(e.g.economic
loss).

InEngland,theLongtermInvestmentScenarios(LTIS)publishedbytheEnvironmentAgency(2014a)
explorethelongterminvestmentcaseforreducingfloodriskinEnglandbasedonoptimisingthe
NetPresentValueprovidedbyasimplifiedsetofpolicyoptionsstretchingthroughto2100.In
doingso,LTISconsidersthecostsandbenefitsofalternativeinvestmentpolicychoicesbutwithno
considerationofwhopaysortheFloodDefenceGrantinAid(FDGiA)rulesthatseektopositively
discriminateinfavourofprotectingthemostdeprivedhouseholds(anelementofaRawlsian
approachembeddedwithinindividualschemefundingapproachesasdiscussedlaterinthisSection).
Inthiscontext,theLTISinvestmentanalysisisbasedontheprincipleofutility,andalthoughitdoes
notattempttosetoutpriorityshortterminvestmentstheLTISdoessetthelongtermdirectionof
travelandinformsthenationalfundingsettlementforEnglandnegotiatedbetweenDefraandthe
EnvironmentAgency.TheEnvironmentAgencyspublishedsixyearprogrammeofcapitalschemes
forEnglandisalsolargelyderivedfromaprioritisedprogrammeofinvestmentsthatprovidesthe
greatestreturnonthoseinvestments,althoughbothegalitarianandRawlsianinfluences(seebelow)
playsomepartindeterminingthislist(EnvironmentAgency,2014a).

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

InScotland(ScottishGovernment,2016)andWales(WalesAuditOffice,2016)efficiencyisalsoat
thecentreoftheprioritisationprocess,althoughpreferentialweightingis,informally,givento
prioritisingthemostvulnerable.

InNorthernIreland,thereisapolicyassumptionthatsufficientfundsareavailabletomeetall
necessaryflooddefenceschemes,andhencenoformalprocessofprioritisationisreportedtoexist
(personalcommunicationwithJonathanMcKee(RiversAgency,2016).Maintenanceworksare
generallyprioritisedusingariskbasedprocessthatislargelyutilitarianinnature.

Egalitarianism
Egalitarianismorrightsbasedtheoriesofjustice,recognisethattheframeworkofsociety(itslaws,
institutions,policies,etc.)giverisetovariationsinthedistributionofbenefitsandburdensacross
themembersofthatsociety.Egalitarianismisthereforeconcernedwiththisdistribution
(distributivejustice)andseekstoensurethatallcitizenshaveequalopportunitytohavetheirrisk
managedandhaveequalinputtodecisionmakingprocessesandgovernance(proceduraljustice).
BothgeneralpropositionsinfluenceFRMasbelow.

Distributiveequality(i.e.reducingeveryonesfloodriskequally).Insomecountries,suchasthe
Netherlands,theprincipleofsolidarityseekstoprovideahighleveloffloodsafetyforall
individuals(e.g.vanAlphen,2014).Inpart,thishasbeenadoptedintheNetherlands(despiteits
achievabilityanddesirabilitybeingincreasinglyquestioned,Klijnetal.,2015)becauseofthe
widespreadseverityofthefloodhazardandthepotentialcatastrophicconsequencesshouldaflood
occur(asmuchofthecountryisbelowsealevel)butalsobecauseofthehomogeneityoftheflood
systemswithfewalternativeoptionsavailable,otherthanstructuralprotection.Theheterogeneity
ofthefloodriskacrosstheUKmeansthatsuchanapproach,evenifachievable,wouldbeeither
grosslyinefficient(divertingresourcesfrommorebeneficialactivities)ornotmeaningfulforthose
affected(e.g.iftheminimumlevelofsafetywouldneedtobesetverylow,tobepractical
everywhere(Defra,2004)).

InEngland,equalityinthesenseofdeliveringauniformfloodriskstandardisthereforeconsidered
impracticalandnotnecessarilydesirablewhenresourcesareconstrained(Defra,2004).Thisdoes
notmeanhoweverthatnoeffortismadetomaximisethenumberofpeoplethathavetheirrisk
managed.TheincrementalBenefit:CostRatio(iBCR)testappliedinEngland,forexample,examines
themarginalincreaseinbenefitscomparedwiththemarginalincreaseincostsassociatedwith
deliveringaprogressivelyhigherstandardofprotection(Defra,2014b).Thisapproachattemptsto
supportutilitarianefficiencyanddistributiveequalitybydirectinglimitednationalinvestment
towardsmaximisingthenumberofpeopleprovidedwithaminimumdegreeofprotection,andaway
fromprovidinghigherstandardsinafewlocations(despitethelatterachievingagreatereconomic
return).

Proceduralequality(i.e.focusedonthedecisionmakingprocessandhowwellitprovideseveryone
withanequalopportunitytohavetheirfloodriskmanaged)isamorepracticalaspectofequalityin
thecontextofFRMandcanbeseeninvariouspolicies.Forexample,alldevelopmentapplications
aresubjecttothesamespatialplanningprocess(e.g.inWales,TAN15,WelshGovernment,2004),
investmentsinfloodforecastingaregenerallyprovidedforeveryoneonnationalscalesandblue
9

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

lightservicesprovidethesameoperationalroleandresponsibilitiesirrespectiveofthelocalsocial
context(althoughthelocaldevolutionofpowersmeanprioritiesandresourceswillinevitablyvaryat
alocallevel,despitesimilarnationalpolicystructures,leadingtodifferentlocalplanningdecisions
forexample).Theapproachtotheapplicationforfundingisalsotypicallytransparentandbasedon
agreedandstandarddecisionrules(derivedfromHMTreasury2003).Thebiaseswithintheserules
(expressedthroughtheprioritiesgiventoeconomic,environmentalandsocialoutcomes,e.g.
EnvironmentAgency,2010a)areclearlyexpressedandagreedbynationalGovernments.Ingeneral,
theprocessisopenandconsistentlyapplied.

Politicalimperativescanhowevercircumventtheseprocesses.Someareas,wherethedegreeof
publicoutragetowardstheriskfacedishighorintheaftermathofaparticularlysevereflood,often
receivefavourabletreatmentfromthegovernment.Followingtheseverefloodingin2013/14,for
example,60millionwasearmarked(althoughasof2016yettobedelivered)bytheTreasuryto
helpmeetthecostofthepreviouslystalledThamesScheme(EnvironmentAgency,2016).
SignificantresourceswerealsodirectedtowardsthelargelyruralcommunitieswithinSomerset
followingwidespreadfloodingin2013/4;anallocationthatwaslargelyoutsidetheappraisalsystem
formanagingrisk.Followingrepeatfloodingin2015/16similaraidwasprovided,withalmost50
millionallocateddirectlytoCumbriatosupportthepostfloodrecoveryandadditionalfunding
awarded(oraccelerated)inYork,forexample.Suchinterventionsareanecessaryresponseto
devastatingfloodevents,butsimilarfloodinginBostoninLincolnshire(where803propertieswere
floodedduringthe2013stormsurge)failedtoreceivesimilarattention(EnvironmentAgency,
2014c).Thisdiscrepancyhighlightsthatfundingallocationsarerightfullyinfluencedbyevents,and
theneedtorespond,butalsothatshorttermpoliticalimperativescandistorttheestablished
processfortheassessmentofriskandprioritisationofinvestment,andthatnotallaffectedplaces
benefitequallyafterevents.

Rawlsian
(DeliveringpositivediscriminationtowardsthemostvulnerablealsoreferredtoasDifference
PrincipleorMaximinRule)

JohnRawls(19212002)developedatheoryofjusticeinwhichfairnessplaysacentralrole(Rawls,
1971).Rawlsarguesthatafairapproachseekstomaximisetheminimumoutcomesbymakingthe
choicethatproducesthehighestpayofffortheleastadvantaged(thesocalledmaximinrule).This
isapowerfulconceptandaddressesthewellknownshortcomingofutilitarianismandsuggeststhat
evenifconsiderationsofefficiencyindicatedifferently,itmaybefairtospendtaxpayersmoney
unevenlyifitmaximisesthebenefitsforthosewhohavelittlewelfareresource.AssuchaRawlsian
approachfocusesonthedegreetowhichanactioniseffectiveindeliveringsociallyjustoutcomes.

AcrossEngland,Wales,ScotlandandNorthernIreland,highlevelstatementsoftenrefertotheneed
tosupportthemostvulnerablemembersofsociety(althoughitisnotalwaysclearwhatismeantby
vulnerability).InScotland,theScottishGovernmentspublicationDeliveringSustainableFloodRisk
ManagementnotesAreductioninthenumberofpeople,homesandpropertyatriskoffloodingas
aresultofpublicfundsbeinginvestedinactionsthatprotectthemostvulnerableandthoseareasat
greatestriskofflooding.InEngland,theoutcomesfrominvestmentinFRMforthe20%most

10

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

deprivedhouseholdsareexplicitlymonitored(i.e.OutcomeMeasures2a5)andsuggestthatbetween
April2011March2015,19,974householdsindeprivedareaswerebetterprotectedfromfloodingin
areaspreviouslysubjecttoasignificantandverysignificantchanceofflooding,comparedto
82,971householdsinlessdeprivedareas6.Noconsideration,however,iscurrentlygiventodegree
towhichthisoutcomeisproportionallyfair;onlythenumberofpropertiesprotected.InWales,the
overarchinggoaloftheWellbeingofFutureGenerationAct(2015)seektosupportthe
developmentofcohesive,resilient,healthierandwealthiercommunities7andaretobewelcomed,
butitsimpactonfloodpolicy(andpractice)isunclear.

AcrosstheUKthedeliveryofonthegroundservicesoftenreflecttheneedtosupportthemost
vulnerable.Floodwarnings,forexample,aretypicallyprovidedinmultiplelanguagesandformats
thatbestreflectthelocalcontext(EnvironmentAgency,2009).Mostlocalauthorities,agencies,and
organisationsalsosupportthemostvulnerableinpreparingforandrespondingtofloodevents(i.e.
byensuringtheemergencyservicesareawareofspecialneedsandcommunityworkersprovide
additionalhelpwhereneededtocompleteclaimforms).InBoston,Lincolnshire,forexample,
interviewswiththeLincolnshireFireandRescueService(AppendixE)confirmedthattheyareaware
ofthelocationofparticularlyvulnerablegroupsandindividuals,andtargettheirassistanceduring
floodeventsaccordingly.Despitethislocaltargetingofaction,andthemanypolicygoalsandgood
practiceguidesthatpromotethemanagementofriskforthevulnerable,somevulnerablegroups
continuetoexperiencediscrimination.GypsyandTravellercommunities,forexample,areoften
marginalisedintheplanningsystem,withhousingopportunitiesprovidedinlesspopularorhigher
riskareas,includingareaspronetoflooding).

TheonlydirectexpressionofRawlsianprincipleswithintheFRMinvestmentdecisionmaking
processisinEngland.TheformulausedtodeterminethemaximumcontributiontoaFRMscheme
fromgeneraltaxation(thesocalledFloodDefenceGrantinAid(FDGiA)formula,Defra,2011)gives
preferentialweightingtoschemesthatreducefloodrisktodeprivedhouseholds(asdefinedbythe
IndexofMultipleDeprivation)8.Forhouseholdsinthe20%mostdeprivedareas(asdefinedbythe
IMD),theGrantinAidisequaltotheagreedpaymentrateperhouseholdprotected(currently20p
foreach1ofbenefitaccrued9)multipliedby2.25(so45pper1ofbenefit).Inthe2140%most
deprivedareasamultiplierof1.5isused(so30pper1ofbenefit)andinthe60%leastdeprived
areasthereisnosuchuplift.ThisapproachissupportedbyHMTreasuryrules(HMTreasury,2003)
thatgovernalltaxpayerinvestments,soallowingforthedifferentialimpactsonthemostvulnerable
tobeincludedinthecaseforinvestment.Despitethis,outsideoftheFDGiAprocess,national

5http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20140328084622/http://www.environmentagency.gov.uk/research/planning/122070.aspxAccessedJan2017

6https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/389952/FCERM_outcome__measures_Q2_2014_15__External.pdfAccessedJan2017

7http://www.legislation.gov.uk/anaw/2015/2/contents/enactedAccessedJan2017

8https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/297377/LIT_9142_dd8bbe.pdfAccessedJune2016

9
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fcrmpartnershipfundingcalculatorAccessedJune2016
11

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

averagesthatfailtodifferentiatevulnerabilitytoharmcontinuetoformthebasisofthebenefit
analysispresentedtojustifyinvestment(eventhoughsocialclassandhenceincomerelated
indicatorsofflooddamageareavailable,PenningRowselletal.,2013).

Theavailabilityofcofunding(fromprivatesources)isalsoconsideredwhendetermining
governmentprioritiesinEngland.Althoughprivatepublicpartnershipsareingeneraltobe
welcomed(extendingfinanceavailablebeyondthelimitednationalfunding),current
implementationmayunderminethetargetingofresourcestothemostvulnerablecommunitiesas
theymaybeunabletoprovidepartnershipfunds.UndertheFloodandCoastalResilience
PartnershipFundingPolicy(Defra,2011),forexample,centralgovernmentcontributesaproportion
oftotalschemecosts.Inthoseareasconsideredtobethemostdeprivedthiscouldbe100%ofthe
schemecost.Inthiscase,thebenefitcostratio(BCR)usedtoranktheschemenationallywouldbe
baseduponthefullcostofthescheme.Elsewhereprivatecontributions(atvaryingproportionsof
theoverallschemecost)areneededtosupportthejustificationofGrantinAidfunding.The
partnershipfundingsecuredreducestheoverallcosttothetaxpayer.Thesereducedcostsarethen
usedintheestimateoftheBCRandtoimprovethenationalrankingofthescheme.Thismayenable
higherschemecosts(insupportofahigherStandardofProtectionortheinclusionofdesign
enhancement,forexampletoimproveamenity)tobejustifiedwithoutlossofnationalpriority
ranking.Itmayalsoenableschemeswithahighproportionofprivatesupporttomoveupthe
rankingwhencomparedtoasimilarschemethatreliesupon100%taxpayerfunding.Thisimplies
thatthoseareaswithagreaterabilitytopayaremorelikelytoreceivenationaltaxpayersupport;an
outcomethatwouldbedemonstrablyunjust.

ThisaspectofthepotentialbiastowardsmoreaffluentareaswithintheFDGiAprocess(notthe
formulaperse)isreinforcedthroughthelackofdifferentiationappliedtobusinesses.Nodistinction
ismadebetweenbusinessesoperatingindeprivedareasandthoseinmoreaffluentareas;inboth
casesbusinessesareexpectedtomakeafinancialcontributiontoascheme.Thismaybea
particularlyimportantinfluencewhenschemesprovidefloodprotectiontoamixofcommercialand
residentialproperties.Insuchsettings,theeconomicincomegeneratinginfrastructure(suchasthe
natureofthelocalbusinessesandpotentialmixoflocalsmallandmediumsizedenterprises
comparedtocorporatemultinationals)isgivennoadvantageinmoredeprivedareasoversimilar
infrastructureinmoreaffluentareas.Thismaybeasignificantbarriertosecuringfundinginareasof
mixedresidentialandnonresidentialproperties,andmayplaceanunnecessarybrakeon
regeneration.

InScotland,WalesandNorthernIrelandpolicythereisnodirectevidencewithintheinvestment
prioritisationprocessofpositivediscriminationtowardsreducingriskforthemostvulnerable.Itis
widelyrecognisedthattheprocessofimplementationisreflectedinthelocalcontextandthismay
includeactingwherepossibletoreduceriskinvulnerableareas;thisprocessisnothoweverformally
definedinpolicy.

12

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

2.3 Flooddisadvantage

Thethreetheoriesofjusticeintroducedintheprevioussectionhavebeenexploredinseveral
projects(e.g.Johnsonetal.,2007;NadaRajah,2010,Lindleyetal.,2011)andelementsoffairness
havebeenrecognisedaspartofgoodstrategicFRM(e.g.Sayersetal.,2014).Despitethisthere
hasbeenlittlequantificationofthedegreetowhichFRMdeliversfairorsociallyjustoutcomesfor
vulnerablecommunitiesandhowclimatechangemayinfluencetheseoutcomes.Inpart,thisis
becauseoftheinherentnaturalspatialvariationinthefrequencyandextentofflooding(reflecting
thelegacyofpastinterventionsaswellasnaturalprocesses)andtheunequalimpactswithin
affectedareasduetodifferentialvulnerabilityofthoseexposedtotheflood.Tounderstandthe
degreetowhichthisinevitablespatialvariationcreatesorreinforcesexistingdisadvantagerequires
ustoelaboratewhatwemean,inthecontextofthisreport,byflooddisadvantage.

GeographicFloodDisadvantage(GFD)
InpreviousworkbyLindleyetal.(2011),disadvantageisconsideredinthecontextofriskandis
definedasafunctionof(a)thelikelihoodofexposuretoahazard,and(b)theindividualorgroup
vulnerabilitytosuchahazardintermsofhowlikelythismaybetoleadtoalossinwellbeing.This
definitionprovidesanabsoluteinterpretationofdisadvantageandenablesthoselocationswhere
highlevelsofsocialvulnerabilitycombinewithalargenumberofpeopleexposedtofloodingtobe
identified.Inthiscontextdisadvantageisgeographicandassuchcanbeestimatedandmapped.
ThisisreferredtohereasGeographicFloodDisadvantage(GFD)andprovidesinsightsintothe
natureofthedistributionaljusticewithinpresentdayFRMandhowthismaychangeinthefuture.

SystemicFloodDisadvantage(SFD)
Thetermdisadvantageisextendedheretoconsiderthedegreetowhichthemostvulnerable
neighbourhoodsaredisproportionallyaffectedbyfloodingwhencomparedtolessvulnerable
neighbourhoods.Thisdefinitionprovidesarelativeinterpretationofdisadvantageandenablesthe
disproportionalityinthefloodriskfacedbythemostvulnerabletobeexplored.Inthiscontext
disadvantageissystemic,andisestimatedbycomparingtherisksfacedbyonecommunitywith
another.ThisisreferredtoasSystemicFloodDisadvantage(SFD)andprovidesinsightsintothe
degreetowhichFRMcanbeconsideredfair(asdefinedbyRawlsianprinciples)andhowthismay
changeinthefuture.Thisapproachbuildsuponsimilartechniquesappliedtoconsiderthe
comparativedisadvantagefacedbyracialminoritiesorlowincomehouseholds(forexampleas
appliedinacomparativeanalysisoftherisksfacedinColoradocity,Harneretal.,2002).

13

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

3.0 ANALYSISAPPROACH

3.1 Overview

TheanalysisprovidesanestimateofpresentdayfloodriskacrosstheUKbasedonanassessmentof
thefloodhazard,exposureandvulnerability.Estimatesoffuturerisks,throughtothe2080s,are
alsopresentedandaccountfortheinfluencesofbothendogenousandexogenousdriversonthese
threeissues(Figure31).

Figure31Frameworkofanalysis
Thescopeofeachaspectoftheanalysisisoutlinedbelowwithadditionalinformationprovidedin
thefollowingsectionand,whereappropriate,supportingappendices.

Floodhazard:Twoaspectsofthefloodhazard,probabilityandspatialextent,areconsideredinthe
contextofthreesourcesofflooding;fluvial(river),coastalandsurfacewater(pluvial)flooding.
FurtherdetailisprovidedinAppendixA.

Note:Noconsiderationisgiventogroundwaterflooding.Thisisbecauseoftherelativelylow
importanceofgroundwaterfloodingatanationalscalewhencomparedwithfluvial,coastaland
surfacewater(seeSayersetal.,2015)andthedifficultyofprovidingacredibleassessment.Given
thecontextofthestudynoconsiderationisgiventothejointprobabilityoffloodsourcesthisis
howeverapotentialfurtherextensionalthoughcarewillbeneededtoavoidaddingunnecessary
complexitytotheanalysis.

FloodExposure:Residentialpropertydata(baseduponnationalpointdatasets)togetherwithlocally
representativehouseholdoccupancyrates(fromcensusdata)areusedtoquantifythenumberof
peoplethatmaybefloodedduringagivenfloodeventandsubjecttoapotentiallossofwellbeing.
FurtherdetailisprovidedinAppendixA.

14

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

FloodVulnerability:Censusdataisusedtoassessthesusceptibilityofindividualstoexperiencea
lossinwellbeingwhenexposedtoafloodaswellastheirabilitytoprepare,respondandrecover
fromaflood(withoutsignificantemergencysupportfromtheauthorities).Furtherdetailonthe
approachtoestimatingvulnerabilityisgiveninthefollowingsectionanddescribedindetailin
AppendixB.

Exogenousfuturechange:Twodriversofchange,outsideofFRMpolicy,areconsideredtoinfluence
futurefloodrisk(climatechangeandpopulationgrowth).Theseinfluencesaresummarisedin
Figure32withsupportinginformationgiveninAppendixC.

Climatechange Changesinthechance
offlooding
Changesinmeansealevel,peakriverflowand
shortdurationintenserainfallbasedon
projectedchangesinGlobalMeanTemperature
(GMT)of2oCand4oC(fromthe196190
baselineasusedinUKCP09)bythe2080s.

Populationgrowth Increasedexposureto
flooding
Changesinpopulationbylocalauthoritybased
onlowandhighgrowthprojectionsaspublished
bytheAdaptationSubCommittee(ASC,2015)
andusedinUKCCRA(Sayersetal., 2015).

Figure32Exogenousdriversoffuturechangeinfloodrisk
Note:Noconsiderationisgiventoeconomicgrowth.Exploringtheinfluenceofdifferential
economicgrowthacrosssocialcharacteristicsofflooddisadvantageisbeyondthescopeofthis
study.Itisthereforeassumedthateconomicdifferentialsremainunchangedinthefutureand
monetarylossesareexpressedatpresentdayvalues(withoutdiscounting).

Noconsiderationisgiventothepotentialexpansionoftheundefendedfloodplaininresponseto
climatechange,onlytheprobabilityoffloodchanges.

Endogenousfuturechange:Purposefulactionstakentodirectlycontrolorstronglyinfluencefuture
floodriskincreasinglyincludeabroadrangeofresponses(asadvocatedbyvariousdocuments:
MakingSpaceforWater(Defra,2005);WorkingwithNaturalProcesses(EnvironmentAgency,
2010b,2014b);DeliveringSustainableFloodRiskManagement(ScottishGovernment,2011);CCRA
FutureFloodingReport(Sayersetal.,2015)).Thiswholesystemapproachisreflectedherethrough
eightindividualadaptationmeasures(Figure33).Todeterminetheeffectivenessofeach
adaptationmeasureinmanagingfutureriskitisassumedthatcurrentFRMpoliciescontinuetobe
implementedaseffectivelyastheyaretoday.Adetaileddescriptionoftheindividualadaptation
measures,andanevidencebaseddiscussionoftheirassumedfutureeffectiveness,isgivenin
AppendixD.
15

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Reducingthechanceof
Appropriatelymanagingfloodingprocesses
flooding
River andcoastaldefences
Management ofcatchmentrunoff
Management ofshoreline morphology
Management ofurbanfloodprocesses

Managingtheexposureto
Makinggoodplanningchoices
flooding
Spatialplanninganddevelopment control
Building regulations

Reducingthevulnerability
Supportingindividualsandorganizations
ofthoseexposed
Receptor Level Resilience measures
Forecasting, warningandcommunityresponse
Insurance

Figure33Endogenouschange:Adaptationmeasuresconsidered
Note:ItisrecognisedthatacrosstheUKFRMtakesplaceasacontinuousprocess.Plannedschemes
andactivitiesforspecificlocations,notyetcompleted,arenotincludedhere.Furtherdetailonthe
forwardplancanbeobtainedfromtheFRMleadsforeachpartoftheUK.

3.2 Analysismethod

Thespatialcoverageoftheanalysisandthenumberofadaptation,populationandclimatescenarios
ofinterest(aswellasthemultipleepochs,floodsourcesandriskmetricstobeconsidered)mean
thatconventionalmodellingapproachesaretoocomputationallyintensivetoexploreall
combinations(achallengerecognisedinKwakkelandPruyt,2013).Instead,theapproachused
buildsuponlessonsfrompastnationalscalestudiesundertakenintheUK(e.g.Evansetal.,
2004a&b)andinsightsfrominternationalstudies(e.g.Klijn,etal.,2004,2014;Bouwer,etal.,2010)
toallowarapidevaluationoftheeffectsofclimate,populationchangeandadaptationusingtheUK
FutureFloodExplorer(FFE)thesamemodellingframeworkusedintheUKClimateChangeRisk
Assessment,CCRA(Sayersetal.,2015,2016).TheUKFFEusesavailabledataonfloodhazard,
exposureandvulnerabilitytodevelopacrediblerepresentationofthebehaviouroftheUKfloodrisk
systemthatcanthenbeusedtoassesspresentdayfloodrisks(forarangeofmetrics)andthe
changeinriskgivenarangeofinfluences(suchasclimatechange,populationgrowthand
adaptation),includingactionstomanagetheprobabilityoffloodingaswellasthosethatinfluence
exposureandvulnerability).

ThehighcomputationalefficiencyoftheFFEallowsaconsistentassessmentoffloodriskacross
England,Wales,ScotlandandNorthernIrelandunderthemultiplescenariosofinteresthere(e.g.
twoclimatechangeprojections,+2oCand+4oCriseinGlobalMeanTemperature,lowandhigh
populationprojectionsandtakingaccountingoffutureadaptation).

16

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

BuildingupontheanalysiscompletedfortheCCRA,theFFEhasneverthelessbeenrevisedand
enhancedinthreeareasforapplicationhere:thespatialresolutionoftheanalysis,the
characterisationoffloodvulnerability,andadaptationtofloodriskdifferentiatedbythevulnerability
ofthecommunitiesaffected.Theimportanceoftheseadvancesisdiscussedbelow.

Spatialresolutionoftheanalysis
TheunderlyingspatialresolutionoftheavailablefloodhazarddatavariesacrosstheUKandranges
from2m50m(dependinguponfloodsourceandlocation).Theavailabledataonexposureisbased
onresidentialpointdatasetsandhencehastheresolutionofasingleproperty.Thisdoesnot
howeverimplytheresultsarecredibleatthesescales.Theconceptoftheneighbourhoodis
thereforeusedasasmall,butappropriatelyaggregated,spatialunittobringtogetherfloodhazard
andexposurewithcensusbasedvulnerabilitydata.NeighbourhoodscorrespondtoLowerlevel
SuperOutputAreas(LSOAs)forEnglandandWales,SuperOutputAreas(SOAs)forNorthernIreland,
andDataZones(DZs)forScotland.Thereare42,619neighbourhoodsintheUK.Theaverage
populationineachoftheseareasvariesbycountry:1600inEngland,760inScotland,1600inWales
and2000inNorthernIreland.Thisrepresentsanevolutionofthepreviousassessmentsofflood
disadvantageforEnglandandWales(Lindleyetal.,2011,baseduponMiddleLayerSuperOutput
Areas,MSOAs)andmaintainstheresolutionofpreviousstudiesinScotland(Kazmierczaketal.,
2015).

NeighbourhoodsareusedinaggregationandreportingofFFEoutputs,andarealsothebasicunitat
whichcensusbasedvulnerabilityiscalculated.TheFFEitselfoperatesatthescaleofCensus
CalculationAreas(CCAs).CCAsspliteachneighbourhoodinto(possiblyoverlapping)polygons
associatedwiththedifferentfloodsources.TheCCAsaretheunitsforwhichimpactcurvesare
calculated(asinFigure34).Thereare842,864CCAsintheUK,coveringfluvial,coastalandsurface
watersources.

Thisalsoprovidesasignificantincreaseinresolutionfromtheanalysisundertakenaspartofthe
CCRAbaseduponthemuchlargerCatchmentCalculationAreas(CCAdefinedsolelyusingcoastline
andriverboundariestosubdividethefloodplainand1kmsquaresforsurfacewater).FFEoutputs
arenotdirectlyprovidedatCCAscale,astheserepresentwidelyvaryingareasandpopulations.
Usingneighbourhoodsasthesmallestaggregationareaisbetterwhencomparingandrankingflood
riskindifferentareas.

ItisassumedthateachCCArepresentseithercoastal,fluvialorsurfacewaterflooding;someCCAs
overlapallowingsomeareastobesubjecttomorethanonesource.Toincorporatetheeffectofthe
manyflooddefencesthataffecttheprobabilityofflooding,eachCCAisassociatedwitha
representativeStandardofProtection(SOP)andConditionGrade(CG)baseduponthestandards
andconditionsoftheindividualdefencesthatrelatetoit(Sayersetal.,2015).ForeachCCA,an
ImpactCurveisgeneratedrelatingthereturnperiodofacurrentorfuturefloodeventtothe
magnitudeoftheimpact(e.g.economicdamageorthenumberofpropertiesthatthatwouldbe
flooded)(Figure34).TheImpactCurvesarethenmanipulatedtoquantifytheinfluenceofclimate
andpopulationchangeaswellasadaptationsonfloodrisk.Forexample,torepresentclimate
changetheImpactCurveismovedtotheleftalongthereturnperiodaxis.Theraisingofflood
defences,however,wouldacttoreduceriskbyshiftingtheImpactCurveintheoppositedirection.
17

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017


Figure34Impactcurve:Examplerelationshipreturnperiodvs.impactusedwithintheFFE(Sayers
etal,2015)

Characterisationoffloodvulnerability
FRMpolicytypicallyconsidersvulnerabilitythroughthelensofdeprivation(asindicatedbytheIndex
ofMultipleDeprivation)andthisviewprovidedthebasisoftheanalysispresentedintheCCRA
(Sayersetal.,2015).Afocusondeprivationhoweverdoesnotnecessarilyreflectacommunitys
vulnerabilitytoafloodshoulditoccur(althoughvulnerabilityisinfluencedbyincomedeprivation,as
clearlydemonstratedbyTapselletal.,2002).Toovercomethisshortcoming,andbuildonthe
characterisationoffloodvulnerabilityadvancedbyLindleyetal.,(2011)andmorerecentlyby
Kazmierczaketal.,(2015),anewmeasureisintroducedhere:theNeighbourhoodFlood
VulnerabilityIndex(NFVI).TheNFVIisusedtoexpressthecharacteristicsofanindividualandthe
communityinwhichtheylivethatinfluencethepotentialtoexperiencealossofwellbeingwhen
exposedtoafloodandoverwhichfloodmanagementpolicyhaslimitedornocontrol.This
understandingreflectspreviousstudies(Tapselletal.,2002;Lindleyetal.,2011;TwiggerRossetal.,
2014;Kazmierczaketal.,2015)andrequiresconsiderationoffivecharacteristics:

Susceptibility:Susceptibilitydescribesthepredispositionofanindividualtoexperiencealossof
wellbeingwhenexposedtoaflood.Itiswidelyevidencedthatthedominantcharacteristicsthat
influencesusceptibilitytoharmrelatetotheage(theoldandveryyoung)andhealthofthe
individualsexposed.

Abilityofanindividualtoprepareforaflood:Preparednessreflectstheactionstakenbyan
individualduringnormalconditions(i.e.intheabsenceofaforecastoractualflood)thatarelikelyto
reducetheharmtheysufferwhenafuturefloodoccurs.Althoughanareaofcontinuedresearch,an
individualsabilitytoprepareisinfluencedbytheirincome,capacitytoact,localknowledgeand
propertytenure.
18

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Abilityofanindividualtorespondtoaflood:Theunderlyingreasonswhysomeindividualsactmore
effectivelyintherunuptoandduringafloodisanareaofcontinuedresearch.Thereishowever
broadagreementthatanindividualsabilitytorespondisinfluencedbytheirincome,capacityto
accessanduseformalandinformalinformation,localknowledgeandphysicalmobility.

Abilityofanindividualtorecoverfromaflood:Manyfloodeventshavehighlightedthelengthof
timeitcantakeforindividualsandcommunitiestorecoverfromaflood.Thedegreetowhichan
individualcanaidtheirownrecoveryisinfluencedbyseveralfactors,particularlytheirincome,
capacitytouseinformation,andphysicalmobility.

Theabilityofthecommunitytosupportindividuals:Theavailabilityandqualityofservicesprovided
byhealthandemergencyservicesaswellasbroadercareandsocialservicesareallimportantsocial
facilitiesthathavearealinfluenceontheseverityofharmcausedbyaflood.Despitealackof
quantifiedevidence,thereisalsostronganecdotalevidencethatcommunitysupportnetworkscan
helpamelioratevulnerabilitybyprovidingsupporttoaffectedgroupsandfloodmanagementpolicy
isincreasinglyrecognisingthevalueofcommunitynetworks(forexamplebysupportingthenational
FloodCommunityResiliencePathfindersschemes,Defra,2012,2015).Assuch,thepresenceor
absenceofcommunitysupportislegitimatelyconsideredhereasacomponentofvulnerability.A
formalrepresentationofcommunitycohesionanditsinfluenceonfloodvulnerabilityisnothowever
available.Inrecognitionoftheimportanceofcommunitysupport,butintheabsenceofmore
detailedinsights,fourindicatorsareconsideredtogaugethenatureofthissupport:housing
characteristics,thecollectiveexperienceofpastfloods,thelikelyavailabilityofcommunityservices
inaflood(includingemergencyserviceprovides,schools,GPs,carehomes)andthesocialnetworks
thatexist.Thisisrecognisedasverymuchafirststepandfurtherresearchwillberequiredtobetter
quantifysupportivecommunitycontexts.

TheapproachtoestimatingtheNeighbourhoodFloodVulnerabilityIndex(NFVI),andthespecific
indicatorsused,aresetoutalongsideothermetricsinSection3.3.

Differentialcapacitytoadapt
Inthecontextofanationalanalysis,theeffectivenessofindividualadaptationmeasuresisoften
consideredtobeindependentofsocialvulnerability(asforexamplewithintheCCRA,Sayersetal.,
2015).Toovercomethisshortcoming,theanalysispresentedheredifferentiatestheeffectiveness
ofindividualadaptationmeasuresbasedonvulnerability(wherethereissomeevidencetodoso).
Adetaileddiscussionofeachindividualadaptationmeasure,andthesupportingevidence,is
providedinAppendixD,withthefindingssummarisedbelow:

Bettermanagefloodingprocesses:Floodandcoastaldefences:Inmostcases,theavailabilityofa
governmentgrantdeterminesthelikelihoodthatafloodprotectionschemewillgoahead.Despite
theFloodDefenceGrantInAid(FDGiA)formulaprioritisingdeprivedareasinEnglandandWales
(Defra,2011)andsupportivehighlevelstatementsthatseektoprioritisethemostvulnerable,there
issomeevidencetosuggestthatthemostvulnerableneighbourhoodsarenotaswellprotectedas
others(EnglandandKnox,2015),investmentfocusedinurbanareas(andawayfromruralareas)and
towardsmoreaffluentareas(andawayfromdeprivedareas).Thisisreflectedhereinthe
implementationassumedfutureadaptationofdefencemeasures.RetrofittingofSustainableUrban
19

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Drainagemeasures:anecdotalevidencesuggeststhatininnercityareas(whereurbanfloodingand
drainageissignificant)adifferentialtakeupofretrofittingSUDSmayexistalthoughnofirm
evidencecanbefound.Withintheanalysishereitisassumedthatthereisnotakeupinmore
vulnerablecommunities(comparedto10%elsewhere,ASC,2014).

Makegoodplanningchoices:Spatialplanninganddevelopmentcontrol:populationgrowthand
associateddevelopmentareimportantdriversoffuturerisk.Analysisofnewdevelopments(in
Englandonly)intheperiod20082014undertakenforthisstudysuggeststhatthepercentageof
newdwellingsbuiltwithinthefluvialandcoastalfloodplainisaround14percentinmorevulnerable
areas(definedbythetop20percentofneighbourhoodsbyNFVI)and11percentinlessvulnerable
areas.Thisdifferentialincurrentplanningoutcomesisassumedtopersistintothefutureandis
thereforecarriedforwardintheanalysishere.

Supportindividualsandorganisations:Propertylevelmeasures,warningservicesandinsuranceall
provideimportantcontributionstosupportingindividualsandcommunitiestomanagetheirflood
risk,butallthreecanbedifficultforthemostvulnerabletoaccess.Forexample:

Propertylevelmeasures:Evidencedoessuggestthatthetakeupbythemostvulnerableinexisting
developmentsislikelytobesignificantlylowerthaninthepopulationaswhole.Theremaybe
multiplereasonsforthisincluding:

(i) Propertylevelmeasurescanbeexpensivewhichmayruleoutinstallationbypeopleonlow
incomes(NationalFloodForum,2012);
(ii) Theprocessofapplyingforagrantisbureaucraticandcumbersome(NationalFloodForum,
2016);
(iii) Grantsmaynotbeenoughtoencouragetakeupbythemostvulnerable(anecdotalevidence
fromthecasestudiesundertakenhere,seeAppendixD)
(iv) Tenantsinrentedaccommodationhaveareducedabilityandincentivetoinstallproperty
levelmeasures;and
(v) Developinganawarenessoffloodriskwithintransientcommunitiesmaybemoredifficult.

Incombination,thesebarriersmeanitislikelythatretrofittingofpropertylevelprotection(PLP)
measuresinthemostvulnerableneighbourhoodsmaybesignificantlylessthanelsewhere(although
limitedquantifiedevidenceexists);andthisperceiveddifferentialiscarriedforwardintheanalysis
here(asdefinedinAppendixD).Thereishoweverlittleevidencethatsuggeststhetakeupofsuch
measureswithinnewdevelopmentsisanydifferentinmoreandlessvulnerableneighbourhoods.

Effectivenessofforecastingandwarningservices:Thereissomeevidencetosuggestthat
vulnerabilityinfluencesacommunitysabilitytorespondtoawarning.Inpart,thisisreflectedinthe
NFVIbutvulnerabilitycanalsoinfluencetheeffectivenessofsuchmeasuresdueto,forexample:

(i) Barrierstoreceivingthewarning:manyhouseholdsarenolongerchoosingtomaintaina
landlinebutinsteadrelyuponmobiletechnologies.Althoughdeliveryofwarningsthrough
mobilenetworksisbeingexploredthiscancreatecomplicationsintryingtocontact
householdstoconveyfloodwarnings.

20

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

(ii) Accessingthecontentofwarnings:minorityethnicgroupsforwhomEnglishorWelshisnot
theirfirstlanguagemaybelessabletorespond(Thrushetal.,2005).
(iii) Awarenessoftheneedtobefloodaware:oneofthefactorsthathasbeenshowntohave
thegreatestimpactonlevelsofawarenessislackofpreviousfloodingexperience(Thrush
etal.,2005).

Incombination,thesechallengesareassumedtoleadtolowerratesoftakeupofwarningservices
andtheactiontakeninresponsetothewarningstobelesseffectiveatreducingeconomicdamage
inmorevulnerableneighbourhoodswhencomparedtolessvulnerableneighbourhoods(see
AppendixDfordetails).

Floodinsurance:InsuranceunderpinsallotherFRMpoliciesintheUK,relievingthegovernmentof
theobligationtopaycompensationforthedamagecausedbyflooding.ThisisoneofthefewFRM
policieswheremeasuresareuniversallyappliedacrosstheUK(NationalFloodForum,2012).
Insurancetakeup,however,isuneven.BasedonthegovernmentsHouseholdExpenditureSurvey
andevidencefromitsownmembers,theAssociationofBritishInsurers(ABI)estimatethatthetake
upofinsuranceintheUKissuchthat93percentofallhomeownershavebuildingsinsurancethat
coversthestructureoftheirhome,butthisfallsto85percentforthepoorest10percentof
householdspurchasingtheirownproperty.Inrentedaccommodation,some75percentofall
householdshavehomecontentsinsurance,buthalfofthepoorest10percentofhouseholdsdonot
havethisprotection(ONS,2015).ThispromptedWatkissetal.(2016)tonotethatwhilemost
owneroccupiershavebuildinginsurance,therearemuchlowerlevelsofcontentsinsuranceamong
tenants,withmanyinthelowestincomedecilehavingnoinsuranceatall.

Toestablishacrediblerepresentationofinsurance,andhoweffectiveitmaybeinthemost
vulnerableneighbourhoods,severalissueshavebeenconsidered:

(i) Thereisalowerlevelofinsurancetakeupbylowerincomehouseholds:Thereisamarked
differenceinpenetrationlevelswithdifferentlevelsofdisposableincome,witha+47.5per
centdifferencebetweenthelowestandhighestincomedecilesidentifiedbeforethe
introductionofFloodRe(ONS,2015).Thisdifferentialformsthebasisoftheinsurance
adapationmeasureappliedtobuildingandcontentslossesassetoutinAppendixD.
(ii) Therearelowerlevelsofpenetrationforhouseholdsinrentedaccommodation:Figure35
showsthathouseholdsinrentedaccommodationhaveafargreaterchanceofnotbeing
insuredwhencomparedtohomeowners.Localauthoritiesandhousingassociationswould
typicallyberesponsibleforanystructuralrepairsfollowingaflooded,ratherthanthetenant,
sothepenetrationfigurehererepresentsthepenetrationofcontentsinsuranceratherthan
domesticpropertyinsurance.Nevertheless,thedifferencebetweenowneroccupiersand
tenantsisstriking,andiscompoundedbythefactthattheprivaterentedaccommodation
sectorintheUKisgrowingquiterapidly,whereasowneroccupationisdeclining
proportionately(ONS,2016).Forstructuralrepairsfollowingafloodthoseintheprivate
rentedsectortheinsurancepositionofthelandlordiswhatiscriticalratherthanthatofthe
tenant,andmanylocalauthoritiesselfinsureratherthaninsurethroughthemarket.
(iii) Underinsuranceandexcesses:Thereisaperceptionthatunderinsurance(i.e.insurance
coveringlessthanthelikelyloss)andlargeexcesses(particularlyforthosepreviously
21

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

flooded)areusedtoreducepremiumsbutcanunderminethesafetynetprovidedby
insuranceatthetimeofneed.Theavailableinformationishoweversparseanditisunclear
ifthisvarieswithdifferenttenuretypesandhouseholdincomelevels(astakeupdoes,
Figure35).

100
%householdswithoutfloodinsurance

90
80 75.0

70 63.8
59.6 57.6
60
50
40
26.6
30
20
10 3.0 3.2
0
Localauthority Housing Privaterental Privaterental Ownerwith Owneroutright Rentalpurchase;
(n=458) Association(445) unfurnished(606) furnished(116) mortgage(1583) (1864) rentfree(72)

Note:FiguresarebasedonanalysisPreFloodRe.Source:(ONS,2015)

Figure35Therelationshipbetweentenureandhouseholdswithnofloodinsurance
SinceApril2016FloodRehascreatedapoolintowhichallinsurerscontributetosubsidisethe
insurancepremiumsofthoseatgreatestrisk(Defra,2014a).Householderspurchasingflood
insurancewillnotknowwhethertheyareinthispoolornot,sincetheywilldealwiththeir
conventionalinsurancecompany,butthatcompanywillcedethepolicyandtheliabilityforclaimsto
theFloodRepoolifthecostofinsuranceexceedscertainthresholdsandcertaineligibilitycriteria
aremet(includingbeingbuildbeforeheywerebuiltbefore1stJanuary2009).Theresultisintended
tomakefloodinsuranceaffordableasitattemptstoamelioratesomeoftheseissues,includingfor
examplecappedpremiumslinkedtoCouncilTaxbandings.However,inhighriskareas,itisunclear
whetherFloodRehasbeensuccessfulinimprovinginsurancetakeupinthemostvulnerable
neighbourhoods.ItisalsothecasethatFloodsRehasalifeofonlytwentyfiveyearsafterwhich
floodinsurancewillbecomefullyriskreflective.Watkissetal.,2016discusseshowthistransitionto
marketpriceswill,inthelongerterm,leadtosubstantiallyhigherpremiumsforthoseatrisk,and
thoseatmostriskwillpaymuchmorethanatpresent.Thetransitiontoanactuarialaccounting
processcouldfurtherdiscouragethemostvulnerableforaccessinginsurance.

Importantcaveats

Therearesomeimportantcaveatsthatrelatetorepresentationofalladaptationmeasureswithin
theanalysisandthevariationinnationalpoliciesbetweenEngland,Wales,ScotlandandNorthern
Irelandaswellasthelocalcontextwithinwhichrisksaremanaged.ThesearesummarisedinBox
31.

22

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Box31Individualadaptationmeasures:Importantcaveats
Nationalpoliciesandimplementationvary:ThecontrastingFRMlegislationandtheapproaches
adoptedacrossEngland,Wales,ScotlandandNorthernIrelandmeanthattheemphasisofpast
adaptationsandthemixoffutureadaptationmeasuresthatmaybeusedwilldiffer(andperhaps
markedly)acrosstheUK.Indevelopingtheindividualadaptationmeasurespresentedinthis
chapterithasbeennecessarytodevelopasingleUKwideassessmentoftheireffectiveness.In
someinstances,achievingthissingleviewisdifficult.Forexample,Scotlandhasastrongerpolicy
focusonnaturalfloodmanagementthanelsewhereintheUK.InEngland,however,takeupofflood
warningservicesismuchmorewidespread.These,andmanyotherdifferences(assetoutin
AppendixD),havebeenconsideredindevelopingarepresentativedescriptionoftheeffectiveness
ofeachadaptationmeasure.Inmostcasesagreateremphasishasbeenplacedonpoliciesthathave
thepotentialtoinfluenceriskthemost.AnyfuturedevelopmentoftheFFEcouldconsider
adaptationmeasurevariationsforeachcountry(whilstcontinuingtoanalyseriskinaconsistentway
acrosstheUK).

ActionsoutsideofFRM:Althoughanincreaseinresidentialpropertiesisassumedtooccuralongside
populationgrowth,noconsiderationisgiventobroaderdevelopmentsthatwouldbeneededto
reflectorsupportthatgrowth(i.e.newschools,hospitalsetc.)northeactionstakenbythose
providerstosafeguardtheirservicesduringaflood.

Localcontextisimportant:Theapplicabilityandeffectivenessofagivenmixofadaptationswill
reflectthelocalcontextwithinwhichtheyareapplied.Thislocalcontextisinpartembeddedwithin
thedescriptionoftheindividualadaptationmeasures.Forexample,thedegreetowhichclimate
changereducestheStandardofProtectionprovidedtoanareareflectsthepresentdaystandardin
thatarea.Thismeansthatpartsofthefloodplainprotectedtoahigherstandardtodaycontinueto
havemoreeffortdevotedtotheminthefuture.Theconsiderationofspecificlocalconstraintsand
opportunitiesthatwilldeterminethefeasibilityofspecificadaptationmeasuresatalocallevelis,
however,outofscope.

3.3 Metricsoffloodexposure,vulnerabilityandrisk

Managingriskisaprerequisitetoenhancingresilience(asdiscussedinSection2.1).Thedegreeof
socialfloodresilienceanddisadvantageisthereforeinterpretedthroughaseriesofquantified
expressionsofexposure,vulnerabilityandrisk(Table31).

23

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Table31Vulnerabilityandriskmetricsusedtodeterminethedegreeofsocialfloodresilience

Metric Insightprovided
Exposuremetrics
Thescaleofthepotentialexposurewithinaneighbourhoodintheabsence
Floodplainpopulation(FP)
ofdefences.
Anindividualsannualaverageexposuretoflooding,takingaccountof
ExpectedAnnual
defences.Athoughnotrepresentativeofanyspecificindividualthis
Probabilityofflooding:
providesameansofcomparingtheaverageexposurebetween
Individual(EAI)
neighbourhoods.
NumberofPeopleExposed Thenumberofpeopleexposedtofloodingmorefrequentlythan1:75
toFrequentFlooding(PEFf) years,onaverage.
Vulnerabilitymetrics
NeighbourhoodFlood Thepropensityofthoselivinginaneighbourhoodtosufferalossofwell
VulnerabilityIndex(NFVI) beingshouldafloodoccur.
Riskmetrics
ExpectedAnnualDamages Theannualaveragedirecteconomicdamages,inmonetaryterms,taking
(EAD)Residentialonly accountofdefences.
Theaverage(economic)riskfacedbyanindividuallivingwithinthe
ExpectedAnnualDamage: floodplain.Althoughnotrepresentativeoftheriskfacedbyanyspecific
Individual(EADi) individualthisprovidesameansofcomparingrisksbetween
neighbourhoods.
Therelativepainoftheeconomicrisksfacedbythoseexposedtoflooding
RelativeEconomicPain
(expressedastheratiobetweenuninsuredeconomicdamagesand
(REP)
householdincome).
Thelevelofsocialfloodrisk(acombinationofexposure,vulnerabilityand
SocialFloodRiskIndex
probabilityofflooding),ataneighbourhoodscale(SFRI)andasanindividual
(SFRI)
average(iSFRI).

Theseheadlinemetricsincludeacombinationoftraditionalriskmetricsandnewmetricsdeveloped
here.Eachmetricisdiscussedinturnbelow.

Metricsofexposure
Exposureisdefinedhereasthenumberofpeoplethatmaybeflooded,andtherebysubjectto
potentiallossofwellbeing.Inassessingexposure,noconsiderationisgiventotheseverityofthe
harmthatmaybecaused(e.g.fromshallowerordeeperfloodingorthedegreeofharmcaused).
Exposureisthereforeabinaryterm;apersonorpropertyiseitherexposedtoagivenfloodornot.
Threeapproachesareusedtoprovideaninsightintoexposure:

Floodplainpopulation(FP):Thisisanestimateofthenumberofpeopleliving(notworking)within
thefloodplainwithinagivenneighbourhood.Theestimateismadebycombiningtheaverage
occupancyrateofahouseholdwithinagivenneighbourhoodandthenumberofresidential
propertiesthatwouldbeexposedtofloodingwithareturnperiodof1:1000yearsormorefrequent
(intheabsenceofdefences,wheretheyexist).Thismetricalsoconsidersthenumberofpeoplein

24

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

areasexposedtosurfacewaterfloodingwithareturnperiodof1:1000yearsormorefrequent,even
thoughtheseareasarenotinwhataretraditionallythoughtofasfloodplains.

Note:Thismetricdoesnotchangewithclimatechange.Thisisbecausethefloodplainextent,
definedbythepresentday1:1000yearreturnperiodflood,isassumedtoremainunchangedinthe
future(althoughfloodprobabilitywithinthefloodplaindoeschange).Thisisnotatrue
representation,asfloodplainsarelikelytoextendfurther(intheabsenceofdefences)withclimate
change,butisconsideredreasonablegiventhemostsignificantimpactofclimatechangeonsurface
waterandfluvialfloodsislikelytobethechangeinprobabilityofflooding.Atthecoastthis
assumptionismorechallengeableundermoreextremesealevelriseassumptions(beyondthose
consideredhere)andwasexploredintheCCRA(Sayersetal.,2015a).Thismetricdoes,however,
changewithpopulationgrowth.

Expectedannualprobabilityofflooding:Individual(EAI):Theexpectedannualprobabilityofan
individualexperiencingfloodingiscalculatedbycombiningthespatialvariationintheannual
probabilityoffloodingtoanydepthwiththelocationofindividualresidentialpropertiesand
neighbourhoodaverageoccupancyrate.Indoingso,theEAIisusedtoprovideapeoplefocused
annualaverageexposuretoflooding.

Note:EAIiscalculatedataneighbourhoodlevelandisanaveragevalueforthoselivingwithinthe
1:1000yearfloodplain(orsurfacewaterequivalent)withinthatneighbourhoodandisnot
associatedwithaspecificindividual.

NumberofPeopleExposedtoFrequentFlooding(PEFf):Afocusonexpectedvaluesalone(e.g.EAI
above)canmaskimportantdifferencesintheprofileoftheriskfacedbetweenneighbourhoods.For
example,anareawithmanypeopleexposedtoveryinfrequentfloodingwouldyieldthesame
estimateofEAIasanareawhereonlyafewpeopleareexposedtofrequentflooding.Thismetric
(PEFf)thereforefocusesonthenumberofpeopleexposedtofloodingmorefrequentlythan1:75
years(onaverage).ToenableavalidcomparisonbetweenareasthePEFfisexpressedasanaverage
valueperheadofthoselivingwithinareasexposedtoaprobabilityoffloodingof1:1000orgreater
(andwithintheaggregationareaofinterest).

Note:Toquantifyexposuretoflooding,onlythoselivingongroundfloororbasementpropertiesare
consideredinEnglandandWales;forScotland,allpropertiesareincluded;forNorthernIreland
groundfloorpropertiesonlyareincluded,andadditionalmultiplepropertieswithinthesame
buildingfootprintarenotcounted.Thesedifferencesinthetreatmentofpropertiesstemfromthe
differentdatasetsusedineachcountry.Nodistinctionismadebetweenthoselivinginabasement
flatandthoselivingonthegroundintermsofexposure.Itishoweverassumedthatbasement
propertiessuffermoreeconomicdamage(byafactorof1.5owingtolikelygreaterimpactofaflood
onhouseholdinventoryitemsstoredthere:personalcommunicationwithEdmundPenningRowsell)
comparedtoanequivalentgroundfloorpropertyexperiencingthesamereturnperiodflood(see
riskmetrics).

Insometexts,thetermexposureincorporatesthechancethatapersonwillbepresentwhena
floodoccurs(e.g.HartfordandBaecher,2004).Underthismorenuancedinterpretationfewer
peoplemaybeexposedinapredominantlyresidentialfloodplainduringthedaybecausetheyare
25

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

awayatwork,orbecausetheyhavesuccessfullyevacuatedtheareainresponsetoawarning.This
isnotdonehere.

Metricsofvulnerability
NeighbourhoodFloodVulnerabilityIndex(NFVI):Anewindex,NeighbourhoodFloodVulnerability
Index(NFVI),isusedtoprovideinsightintothesocialvulnerabilityofaneighbourhoodshoulda
floodoccur.TheNFVIcombinesthefivedomainsofvulnerability(setoutinSection3.2)basedupon
asubsetoftwelvevulnerabilityindicators(Figure36).Inthiscontext,aneighbourhoodisdefined
bycensusgeographies(i.e.LowerLayerSuperOutputAreas(LSOA)inEnglandandWales,Data
Zones(DZ)inScotlandandSuperOutputAreas(SOA)inNorthernIreland).Thisrepresentsanatural
evolutionofthepreviousanalysisforEnglandandWales(Lindleyetal.,2011)basedonMiddleLevel
SuperOutputAreas(MSOAs);ascalethatcancoververyheterogeneoussocioeconomicconditions,
andmaintainstheresolutionofpreviousstudiesinScotland(Kazmierczaketal.,2015)whilstalso
takingadvantageofanimprovedunderstandingofthefloodhazardandexposure.Thedatausedto
calculateeachindicator(inFigure36)aresummarisedinTable32.Thesupportingevidenceforthe
selectionofeachvulnerabilityindicator,andhowtheyhavebeencombinedtoderivetheNFVI,isset
outindetailinAppendixB.


Figure36NeighbourhoodFloodVulnerabilityIndex:Influentialdomainsandindicators

26

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Table32NeighbourhoodFloodVulnerabilityIndex:Indicatorsandsupportingvariables

Indicator Supportingvariables
Age a1 Youngchildren(%peopleunder5years)
a2 Olderpeople(%peopleover75years)
Health Disability/peopleinillhealth(%peoplewhosedaytodayactivitiesare
h1
limited)
h2 Householdswithatleastonepersonwithlongtermlimitingillness(%)
Income i1 Unemployed(%unemployed)
Longtermunemployed(%whoarelongtermunemployedorwhohave
i2
neverworked)
i3 Lowincomeoccupations(%inroutineorsemiroutineoccupations)
i4 Householdswithdependentchildrenandnoadultsinemployment(%)
i5 Peopleincomedeprived(%)
Informationuse RecentarrivalstoUK(%peoplewith<1yearresidencycomingfrom
f1
outsideUK)
f2 LevelofproficiencyinEnglish
Localknowledge k1 Newmigrantsfromoutsidethelocalarea(%)
Tenure t1 Privaterenters(%Households)
t2 Socialrenters(%householdsrentingfromsociallandlords)
Physicalmobility m1 Highlevelsofdisability(%disabled)
m2 Peoplelivinginmedicalandcareestablishments(%)

m3 Lackofprivatetransport(%householdswithnocarorvan)
Crime c1 Highlevelsofcrime
Housingcharacteristics hc1 Caravanorothermobileortemporarystructuresinallhouseholds(%)
Directfloodexperience e1 No.ofpropertiesexposedtosignificantfloodrisk(%)
Serviceavailability s1 Emergencyservicesexposedtoflooding(%)
s2 Carehomesexposedtoflooding(%)

s3 GPsurgeriesexposedtoflooding(%)
s4 Schoolsexposedtoflooding(%)
Socialnetworks(non n1 Singlepensionerhouseholds(%)
flood) n2 Loneparenthouseholdswithdependentchildren(%)

n3 Childrenofprimaryschoolage(411)inthepopulation(%)

Metricsoffloodrisk
Floodriskiswidelyacceptedtobeafunctionofboththeprobabilityofthefloodhazardandthe
associatedconsequencesshouldthatfloodoccur(e.g.Sayersetal.,2002).Inthiscontext,the
assessmentofprobabilityreflectsnotonlythechanceofthemeteorologicaleventbutalsothe
hydrologicalandhydraulicresponseaswellasperformanceoftheflooddefenceswheretheyexist.
Consequenceisconsideredasafunctionofthepotentialtoexperiencealossofwellbeingwhena
floodoccurs(exposure)andthedegreeofharmthatmayresultifexposed(vulnerability).Flood
riskisthereforeacombinedtermthatistypicallyexpressedaseitheranannualexpectation(an
integrationoftheannualexceedanceprobabilityofarangeoffloodeventsandtheassociated
consequences)orassociatedwithagivenevent(thelossofsocialwellbeingthatmayresultfroma
singlegivenfloodevent).Bothprovideausefulperspectiveonthenatureoftherisksfacedandare
reflectedintheriskmetricsused:
27

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

ExpectedAnnualDamages(EAD):Thisprovidestheconventionalviewofriskthatestimatesthe
ExpectedAnnualDamagesinnationaleconomicterms.TheassessmentofEADusedherecombines
theannualprobabilityofaresidentialpropertybeingfloodedandtheassociateddirecteconomic
damages.ItusestheWeightedAnnualAverageDamage(WAAD)methodology(PenningRowsellet
al.,2013;Sayersetal.,2015)toestimatethedirecteconomicdamagetoresidentialpropertieswith
anupliftof1.5appliedtotheproportionofpropertieswithbasements(asdeterminedthroughthe
2005censusdata).

Note:ThefocusisoneconomiclosstotheUKandnotthefinanciallossthatmaybeincurredbyan
individual.Widersocialimpacts(suchasmonetisationofmentalhealthimpacts)arealsoexcluded.
Noconsiderationisgivenheretoindirectdamages(suchastheconsequentialcostsonthepublic
purseofsupportingshortandlongtermrecovery)orwiderimpacts,suchasthevaluationofthe
healthimpacts(physicalandmental).

ExpectedAnnualDamage:Individual(EADi):Thisprovidesanestimateoftheaverage(economic)
riskfacedbyanindividuallivingwithinthefloodplainwithagivenneighbourhood.Althoughnot
representativeoftheriskfacedbyanyspecificindividual,thisprovidesavalidmeansofcomparing
risksbetweenareas.

RelativeEconomicPain(REP):Inrecognitionofthevaryingcopingcapacitybetweenmoreaffluent
andlowerincomehouseholds,thismetriccapturestherelationshipbetweenuninsuredeconomic
damagesandhouseholdincome.TheREPisusedtoexpresstherelativepainofariskandis
definedhereas:

REP=(1insurancepenetration)xExpectedAnnualDamages(directresidential)perhousehold
withinthefloodplain/Averageincomeperhouseholdwithintheneighbourhood.

Note:Aspreviouslynoted(seeEAD),thedamagescalculatedhereareeconomiclosses,whereasthe
impactoffloodingonuninsuredhouseholdsisrelatedtothefinanciallosses.TheREPmetricshould
thereforenotbeviewedasdirectlyrepresentingtheimpactonhouseholdfinances,butis
neverthelessausefulmetricrelatinglossestoincomeandinsurancetakeup.Noconsiderationis
giventoissuesofexcess,deductiblesorexclusions(includinguninsuredimpacts,suchaslongterm
physicalormentalhealththatmaybeassociatedwithaflood).

InassessingtheREP,householdincomeistakenfromtheappropriatecensusdatasourcesforeach
constituentcounty.Thesearegenerallyavailableatalargerspatialscalethanthecensusareasused
inthisstudy(e.g.MSOAforEnglandandWalesratherthanLSOA),andarethereforesampleddown
totheappropriatescale.ValuesforNorthernIrelandareonlyavailableatLocalGovernmentDistrict
level,andthereforedonot,forexample,differentiatebetweenricherandpoorerareasofBelfast.

SocialFloodRiskIndex(SFRI):Athirdnewriskmetric,theSFRI,isusedtoidentifythoseareaswhere
thelargestnumberofthemostvulnerablepeopleareexposedtofrequentflooding.TheSFRI
thereforedirectlysupportsanunderstandingofGeographicFloodDisadvantageandisestimatedat
bothaneighbourhoodscaleandasanindividualaverageasfollows:

28

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

SFRIhelpsidentifythoseareaswheremanyvulnerablepeople,asdefinedbytheNFVI,are
exposedtofloodingandiscalculatedasfollows:

SFRI=ExpectedAnnualProbabilityofFlooding:Individual(EAI)xNumberofpeoplewithinthe
floodplain(FP)xNeighbourhoodFloodVulnerabilityIndex(NFVI).

Socialfloodriskindex:Individual(iSFRI)helpsidentifythoseneighbourhoodswherethe
vulnerabilityofthoseexposedishigh(evenwhenonlyafewpeoplemaybeexposed)andis
calculatedsimplybydividingtheSFRIbythefloodplainpopulation,togive:

SFRIIndividual=ExpectedAnnualProbabilityofFlooding:Individual(EAI)xNeighbourhood
FloodVulnerabilityIndex(NFVI).

Note:TheSFRIisarelativeindexandhasnounits;thegreaterthevalue,thehigherthelevelof
socialfloodrisk.

3.4 Geographiesofflooddisadvantage

Theresiliencemetrics(introducedintheprevioussection)areexploredthroughfourgeographic
lensesthatrangeinscaleandtheperspectiveontheresultstheyprovide:

Administrativeregion:Fouradministrativescalesareusedtoviewaggregatedfloodresilience
metrics:(i)UK;(ii)National:England,Wales,ScotlandandNorthernIreland;(iii)Regional:England,
EnvironmentAgencyAreas;Wales,FloodRiskManagementAdministrativeAreas;Scotland,Local
FloodRiskManagementPlanDistricts,andNorthernIreland,RiverBasinDistricts;(iv)Local:Local
authoritiesasdefinedintheOrdnanceSurveyBoundaryLine(coveringthe391CouncilAreasin
Scotland,DistrictCouncilAreasinNorthernIreland,andDistricts,UnitaryAuthoritiesandLondon
BoroughsinEnglandandWales)dataset.

Floodsource:Areasimpactedbyeachsourceoffloodingareusedtoaggregateandviewtheflood
resiliencemetrics,including:(i)Coastal(includingtidal);(ii)Fluvial;(iii)Surfacewaterfloodplains.

Note:Coastalandtidalfloodareasaretreatedinthesameway,andthereforecoastalriskincludes
someareaswemightthinkofasbeingwellinland:thetidalThamesandTrent,forexample.

Settlementtype:TheOfficeforNationalStatistics(EnglandandWales),ScottishGovernmentand
theNorthernIrelandStatisticsandResearchAgencyallproduceurban/ruralclassifications,butuse
differentclassifications.ProducingaconsistentclassificationacrosstheUKisthereforenot
straightforwardbutisnecessaryinthecontextoftheanalysispresented.Theclassificationfor
EnglandandWalesisthereforeusedasabasisandtheclassificationsusedinScotlandandNorthern
Irelandsubjectivelymappedontothis(Table33).

29

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Table33SettlementtypesusedintheUK
Northern
Scotland(Scottish
Ireland
EnglandandWales(ONS,2011) Government,2010,
(NISRA,
2016)
2015)
Major Majorityliveinsettlementswithpopulation
LargeUrbanAreas
Conurbation >10,000
Minor Majorityliveinsettlementswithpopulation
Conurbation >10,000
Urban OtherUrbanAreas
Majorityliveinsettlementswithpopulation Urban
CityandTown
>10,000
CityandTown Majorityliveinsettlementswithpopulation
RemoteSmall
inaSparse >10,000,withalowdensityprofileinthe
Towns
Setting surroundingarea
AccessibleSmall
Townand Majorityliveinsettlementswithpopulation Townsand
Fringe <10,000 AccessibleRural
Mixed
Areas
urban/rural
Townand Majorityliveinsettlementswithpopulation
VeryRemoteSmall
Fringeina <10,000,withahighpopulationdensitybut
Rural Towns
SparseSetting alowdensityprofileinthesurroundingarea
Villageand Majorityliveinsettlementswithpopulation RemoteRural
Dispersed <10,000 Areas
Villageand Majorityliveinsettlementswithpopulation Rural
VeryRemoteRural
Dispersedina <10,000withalowdensityprofileinthe
Areas
SparseSetting surroundingarea

Economicsetting:Thelensofeconomicsettingconsidersflooddisadvantageinareasthatare
predisposedtowardsbeingmorevulnerable.Twolensesareconsidered:

(i)Citiesindecline:WhilecitygrowthisakeyconcernofUKpolicysomeeconomicregionsarefalling
behindnationaltrends(Pikeetal.,2016).Flooddisadvantageisconsideredinthe24moststruggling
cities/majortowns(asdefinedusingtheindexofrelativedeclineproposedbyPikeetal.(2016),
showninFigure37).Acrosstheseeconomicregionsunemploymentislikelytobehighandsocial
provisionlow,andallthenecessitiesforrapidrecoveryfromfloodingareatalowebb.

(ii)Deprivedneighbourhoods(asdefinedbythe20%ileoftheIndexofMultipleDeprivation):The
IMDisusedinEnglandandWalestoidentifydeprivedhouseholdsandhencethepaymentrate
usedwithintheFloodDefenceGrantinAid(FDGiA)formulaforeachhouseholdbetterprotected.
TheIMDthereforehasasignificantinfluenceontheallocationofresources.Consideringflood
disadvantagethroughthislensprovidesanopportunitytoexplorewhethertheIMDisagood
representationoffloodvulnerabilityandsocialfloodrisk,andthedegreetowhichtheFDGiAandits
predecessorshavebeensuccessfulintargetingresourcesinthemostdeprivedareas.IMDsarealso
definedinScotland,WalesandNorthernIreland,allwithslightlydifferentdefinitions.

30

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017


Citiesareshadedbyrankwith1indicatingthebiggestdecline;BelfastandBirkenheadarejoint17th(thereisno18thplace).

Figure37Economicsetting:Citiesinrelativedecline(Pikeetal.,2016).

3.5 Validityofapproach

Thevalidationofanyanalysisofriskisdifficult,inpartbecausefloodeventsarerareandflood
systems(theclimate,thedefences,thesocioeconomicsettingetc.)arechanging.Itistherefore
difficult,ifnotimpossible,todeterminetheaccuracyofanestimateofriskthroughcomparisonto
measureddataalone(Sayersetal.,2016).Thevalidityofanyanalysisthereforereliesupon
assumptionsandlimitationsbeingacknowledged(ashighlightedthroughoutthereport)andgaining
confidencethattheanalysisiscredibleatthescalesofinterest(assetoutinSection3.4)andinthe
contextoftheobjectivesoftheanalysis.Toprovideappropriateconfidenceintheanalysis
presentedhere,threeimportantaspectsarediscussedbelow:

Credibilityoftheinputdata:ItisassumedherethattheinputdatausedbytheFFE(including,but
notlimitedto,floodhazard,defencestandardsandconditions,property,censusdata)iscredibleat
31

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

thescalesofinterest(assetoutinSection3.4)andinthecontextofthestudyobjectives.Thisis
reasonablegivenallthedatasetsareroutinelyusedbyvariousnationalandlocalorganisations,
despiterecognisedcontroversyregardingtheabsolutevaluesofsomeofthedatasets(suchasdata
basedupontheNationalFloodRiskAssessmentinEngland,PenningRowsell,2014,2015,2016).

TheskilloftheFFEasanemulator:ToprovidevalidestimatestheFFEmustprovideafaithful
reproductionoftheunderlyingdata.Toprovideconfidencethatthisisthecasetheresultsofthe
FFEhavebeenpreviouslycomparedtostandaloneestimatesofthenumberofpropertiesat
significantriskandtheEAD(asproduced,forexample,byEnvironmentAgencysNationalFloodRisk
AssessmentandtheScottishEnvironmentalProtectionAgency,SEPA),confirmingtheabilityofthe
FFEtoproduceknownresults(Sayersetal.,2015).

Thecredibilityofnewresults:Toprovideconfidenceintheextensionoftheanalysistorepresent
neighbourhoodvulnerabilityandsocialfloodriskindices,threeadditionalactivitieshavebeen
undertaken:

(i) EngagementwithanAdvisoryGroup:Progressivedraftsoftheanalysishavebeen
scrutinisedastheyhaveemergedbyanextensiveAdvisoryGroup.Thisprocesshas
providedusefullinkstoadditionaldatasourcesandaswellasgivingconfidencethatthe
resultsreflecttheirexperience.
(ii) Engagementwithnationalpolicyleads:PolicyleadsfromEngland,Wales,Scotlandand
NorthernIrelandhaveeachbeenengagedtodiscusstheroleofsocialjusticeincurrent
policyapproachestoFRMandtheanticipateddirectionoftravel.
(iii) Localcasestudiesandreview:Threelocalcasestudies(inBoston,CumbriaandBlaenau
Gwent)havebeenusedtogroundtruththeestimatesofvulnerabilityandsocialfloodrisk.
LocalstakeholdersfromeachcasestudywereshownsimplemapsoftheassessmentofNFVI
andSFRIandaskedtocommentonthedegreetowhichtheyrecognisedthespatial
patterns.InallcasesthelocalstakeholdersconfirmedtheNFVIrepresentedthespatial
variationinvulnerabilitywell,althoughtheyfounditmoredifficulttocommentuponthe
moreabstractnotionoftheSFRI.Thesediscussionsprovidedconfidencethattherelative
distributionofvulnerabilityreasonablyrepresentslocalunderstandingandpresentedan
opportunitytoexploreonthegroundbarrierstoadaptationandthebarriersfacedbythe
mostvulnerablecommunities(thatinturnshapedtherepresentationoftheindividual
adaptationmeasuresusedhere,assetoutinSection3.2).

FurtherdiscussionofthepolicyengagementsandcasestudiesisprovidedinAppendixE.

32

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

4.0 ANALYSISRESULTS:FINDINGSANDDISCUSSION

4.1 Floodplainpopulation,vulnerabilityandexposuretofrequentflooding

Summaryfindings

Themostvulnerableneighbourhoodsareoverrepresentedinareaspronetoflooding(all
sources)andsignificantlyoverrepresentedinareaspronetocoastal(andtidal)flooding.
Thenumberofpeoplelivinginthemostvulnerableneighbourhoodsissignificantlygreaterin
NorthernIrelandthanelsewhereintheUK.
Over50%ofthoseexposedtofloodingandlivinginthemostvulnerableneighbourhoodsarein
justtenlocalauthorities.
Bythe2080svulnerableneighbourhoodsseeasignificantincreaseinexposuretomorefrequent
floods;anincreasethatisinlinewiththoselivinginlessvulnerablecommunities.

Discussion
Presentday:Todayapproximately6.4millionpeopleintheUKliveinareasexposedtoflooding
(fromfluvial,coastalorsurfacewatersources)withafrequencyof1:1000yearsormorefrequent(in
theabsenceofdefences).Around1.5millionofthesepeople(23.4%)liveinthe20%most
vulnerableneighbourhoods(Table41).Fluvialandcoastalfloodplainsarehometo1.7millionand
1.8millionpeoplerespectively.Thenumberofpeoplelivinginareaspronetosurfacewaterflooding
ismuchhigher(2.8million),with590,000(21%)oftheselivinginthe20%mostvulnerable
neighbourhoods.

Ofthoselivinginfloodproneareas,2million(31%)areexposedtofrequentflooding(withareturn
period,onaverage,of1:75yearsormorefrequent);withthemajority,1.3million(67%),livinginthe
mostvulnerableneighbourhoods(top20%byNFVI).Ofthe1.8millionpeoplelivinginthecoastal
floodplain,33%arewithinthe20%mostvulnerableneighbourhoodsand10%inthe5%most
vulnerableneighbourhoods(top5%byNFVI)Table41.

Theproportionofvulnerableneighbourhoodsexposedtofloodingvariesacrossthefournations.In
NorthernIreland,forexample,55%ofthepopulationexposedtofloodingliveinthetop20%of
neighbourhoodsbyNFVIand25%ofthetotalpopulationexposedtofrequentfloodingareinthe
mostvulnerableneighbourhoods(thetop5%byNFVI)Table42.Thisrepresentsasignificant
systemicdisadvantage.Thedisproportionalityislessevidentelsewhere(inScotland9%ofthe
floodplainpopulationliveinthetop5%byNFVI;inEngland5%;andinWales3%).Thedriversof
neighbourhoodvulnerabilityare,ingeneral,similaracrossallsourcesofflooding.Incoastalsettings,
howeverlimitedserviceavailabilityplaysanenhancedroleandisakeycontributortothehighlevels
ofvulnerabilityobserved,alongwithphysicalmobilityandinformationuse(Figure41).

Seventyfivelocalauthorities(approximatelyonefifthoftheUKtotal)accountfor50%ofthose
livinginfloodproneareas.Theconcentrationbecomesmoremarkedwhenthemostvulnerable
neighbourhoods(top5%byNFVI)areconsidered,withover50%ofthepopulationexposedto
floodinginthemostvulnerableneighbourhoodslocatedinjusttenlocalauthorities(Hull,Boston,
Belfast,Birmingham,EastLindsey,Glasgow,Leicester,NorthEastLincolnshire,SwaleDistrict,and
TowerHamlets).Figure42illustratesthisclusteringandhighlightsconcentrationsofpeoplein
33

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

vulnerableneighbourhoodsonthefloodplaininScotlandscentralbelt,Belfast,theHumber,
Lincolnshire,Birmingham,SouthWales,andtheSevernandThamesEstuaries.

Inthefuture:Thenumberofpeoplelivinginfloodproneareasissettoincreaseby45%to10.8
millionpeoplebythe2080s(assuminghighpopulationgrowthcombinedwitha+4oCclimatefuture,
andassumingcurrentapproachestoadaptationcontinue,Figure43),6.4millionpeoplewillbe
exposedtofrequentflooding,upfrom2milliontoday(anincreaseofover200%).Inthemost
vulnerableneighbourhoodstheincreaseisequallydramatic,againmorethantrebling,from451,000
todayto1.4millionbythe2080s(anincreaseofover200%).Thegreatestincreasesareexperienced
inEnglandandinareaspronetosurfacewaterandfluvialflooding.InWales,ScotlandandNorthern
Irelandandcoastalsettingstheincreasesarejustassignificantintermsoftherelativeincreasefrom
presentday.

Givenafuture2Ctemperatureincreaseunderclimatechange,highpopulationgrowthanda
continuationoftheCLA,thenumberofpeoplelivinginthemostvulnerableneighbourhoods
exposedtofrequentcoastal,fluvialorsurfacewaterflooding(withareturnperiodofmorefrequent
than1:75years)increasesfrom122,000todayto279,000bythe2080s.Thisrepresentsanincrease
of129%.

Atthenationalscaletheproportionalincreaseinexposureofvulnerableneighbourhoodsissimilar
tolessvulnerableneighbourhoods(i.e.thecontributionfrombothlessandmorevulnerable
neighbourhoodsissimilarinthefutureasitistoday).Thedisproportionalexposureofthoselivingin
vulnerableneighbourhoods,particularlyinNorthernIreland(andtoalesserextentScotlandand
Wales),andthoselivingincoastalsettingsthereforecontinuestopersistintothefuture(Figure44).
Thoselivinginthemostvulnerableneighbourhoodsexposedtofluvialfloodingseetheirrisk
increaseatafasterrate(increasingfrom24,000to63,000;+263%).Lessvulnerablecommunities,
acrossallsourcesofflooding,alsoexperienceasignificantincrease,risingby138%.

34

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Table41Presentday:Populationoffloodproneareas
Vulnerableneighbourhoods(000s)
Allneighbourhoods
Top20%by Top10%by Top5%by
(000s)
NFVI NFVI NFVI
Bycountry
UK 6,398 1,497 23% 788 13% 397 6%
England 5,508 1,216 22% 635 12% 316 6%
Wales 378 107 28% 45 12% 13 3%
Scotland 376 99 26% 56 15% 32 8%
NorthernIreland 136 74 55% 52 38% 37 27%
Byfloodsource
Allsources 6,398 1,497 23% 788 12% 397 6%
Coastal(andtidal) 1,809 604 33% 340 19% 179 10%
Surfacewater 2,869 594 21% 293 10% 148 5%
Fluvial 1,720 299 17% 155 9% 71 4%
Table42Presentday:Peopleexposedtofrequentflooding(1:75yearsormorefrequent)
Vulnerableneighbourhoods(000s)
Allneighbourhoods
Top20%by Top10%by Top5%by
(000s)
NFVI NFVI NFVI
Bycountry
UK 1,985 451 23% 239 12% 122 6%
England 1,612 335 21% 174 11% 88 5%
Wales 117 36 30% 15 13% 4 3%
Scotland 200 51 26% 29 15% 17 9%
NorthernIreland 55 29 53% 20 35% 14 25%
Byfloodsource
Allsources 1,985 451 23% 239 12% 122 6%
Coastal(andtidal) 489 164 33% 95 19% 50 10%
Surfacewater 870 103 21% 92 11% 48 5%
Fluvial 626 184 16% 52 8% 24 4%

1.40
WeightedcontributiontoNFVI

1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40


Figure41Presentday:Driversofneighbourhoodvulnerabilityatthecoast

35

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Circlediametersareproportionaltomagnitudeofthevalues.

Forallneighbourhoods(topleft),andforneighbourhoodsclassifiedbyNFVI(allothers).

Figure42Presentday:Concentrationofpeoplelivinginthefloodplain

36

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

2,500,000
No.ofpeopleinfloodproneareas
2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0
PD 2020s 2050s 2080s PD 2020s 2050s 2080s PD 2020s 2050s 2080s PD 2020s 2050s 2080s PD 2020s 2050s 2080s
England NorthernIreland Scotland Wales UK

5%byNFVI 10%byNFVI 20%byNFVI



60%
%Contributiontono.ofpeoplein

50%
40%
floodproneareas

30%
20%
10%
0%
PD 2020s 2050s 2080s PD 2020s 2050s 2080s PD 2020s 2050s 2080s PD 2020s 2050s 2080s PD 2020s 2050s 2080s
England NorthernIreland Scotland Wales UK

5%byNFVI 10%byNFVI 20%byNFVI



Assumingacontinuationofcurrentadaptation,+4oCclimatefutureandhighpopulationgrowth.PD=presentday.

Figure43Futurechange:No.ofpeopleinfloodproneareas:Bycountry
No.ofpeopleexposedtofrequent

1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
flooding

600,000
400,000
200,000
0
PD 2020s 2050s 2080s PD 2020s 2050s 2080s PD 2020s 2050s 2080s PD 2020s 2050s 2080s
Allsources Coastal Fluvial Surfacewater

5%byNFVI 10%byNFVI 20%byNFVI



40%
%Contributiontotheno.ofpeople

35%
exposedtofrequentflooding

30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
PD 2020s 2050s 2080s PD 2020s 2050s 2080s PD 2020s 2050s 2080s PD 2020s 2050s 2080s
Allsources Coastal Fluvial Surfacewater

5%byNFVI 10%byNFVI 20%byNFVI



Assumingacontinuationofcurrentadaptation,+4oCclimatefutureandhighpopulationgrowth

Figure44Futurechange:Exposuretofrequentflooding:Byfloodsource

37

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

4.2 Expectedannualdamagesandtheinfluenceofincomeandinsurance

Summaryfindings

AtaUKscale,EADisdominatedbyEngland,butthecontributionfromelsewhereintheUKis
moresignificantwhenconsideredinthecontextofthemostvulnerableneighbourhoods.
InNorthernIreland,vulnerableneighbourhoodscontributetwothirdsoftheEAD.
Atthecoast,themostvulnerableneighbourhoodsexperiencedisproportionallyhighlevelsof
EAD,todayandinthefuture.
EADperpersonisgreatestinScotlandandrisesfastestinvulnerableneighbourhoods.
LowincomeandlowlevelsofinsurancepenetrationsignificantlyimpacttheREPoffloodingin
vulnerableneighbourhoods(acrossallsourcesofflooding).

Discussion
Presentday:ExpectedAnnual(economic)Damage(EAD)acrosstheUKis351million(residential
propertyonly).Englandcontributes79%(277million),Scotland12%(43million),Wales6%(23
million)andNorthernIreland2%(8million)tothisoverallnumber(Figure45).


Figure45Presentday:ContributiontoExpectedAnnualDamagesBycountry
ThecontributionfromelsewhereintheUKishowevermoresignificantwhenconsideredinthe
contextofthemostvulnerableneighbourhoods.ThisismostsignificantinNorthernIrelandwhere
the20%mostvulnerableneighbourhoodsaccountfor67%oftheEAD(inScotlandtheequivalent
figureis22%,inEngland22%andWales26%).Therefore,althoughNorthernIrelandaccountsfor
only2%oftheUKEADwhenallneighbourhoodsareincluded,whenconsideredfromthe
perspectiveofonlythemostvulnerableneighbourhoods(thetop5%byNFVI)thecontributionfrom
NorthernIrelandincreasessubstantiallyto10%ofUKEAD.

Whenconsideredfromtheperspectiveofthesourceofflooding,coastalandfluvialflooding
dominatestheEADataUKscale(Figure46).Themostsignificantsystemicdisadvantageis
experiencedatthecoast,withthemostvulnerableneighbourhoods(top20%NFVI)accountingfor
32%ofthecoastalrisk(expressedasEAD)Figure47.Thereisnosignificantdisproportionality
experiencedinfluvialandsurfacewaterfloodproneareaswhenviewedinthecontextofEAD
(althoughthischangesinthefutureseelater).

38

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

400
ExpectedAnnualDamages(m) UK
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Allsources Coastal Fluvial Surfacewater

5%byNFVI 10%byNFVI 20%byNFVI Allareas



Figure46Presentday:ExpectedAnnualDamagesByfloodsource

50%
45%
%contributiontoEAD UK

40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Allareas 5%byNFVI 10%byNFVI 20%byNFVI

Coastal Fluvial Surfacewater



Figure47Presentday:ContributiontoExpectedAnnualDamagesByfloodsource
Whennormalisedbypopulation,thoselivinginfloodproneareasinScotlandexperiencethehighest
EADperperson(onaverage,113perperson)andoverdoublethatofEngland(onaverage,50per
person)(seeFigure48).

Whenconsideredbyfloodsource,themostsignificantEADsareexperiencedinfluvial(97per
person)andcoastal(76perperson)floodplains(inareaspronetosurfacewaterfloodingthevalue
ismuchless,16perperson).Inmanycases,theseestimateschangelittlebetweenmoreandless
vulnerableneighbourhoods.Therearetwoexceptionstothis.Thefirstrelatestoareasproneto
surfacewaterfloodingwherethemostvulnerableneighbourhoods(top5%byNFVI)experience
muchgreaterEADperpersonwhencomparedtotheaverage(18.30perperson,15%higherthan
theaverage).ThesecondrelatestoWales,wherethemostvulnerableneighbourhoods(5%byNFVI)
areatamuchlowerrisk(onaverage,40EADperperson)comparedtotheaverageinWales(60
perperson).

39

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

120
ExpectedAnnualDamages:Individual()
100

80

60

40

20

0
Allneighbourhoods 5%byNFVI 10%byNFVI 20%byNFVI

England Wales Scotland NorthernIreland


Figure48Presentday:ExpectedAnnualDamages:IndividualBycountry
Lowerincomes(approximately7,500perheadinmostvulnerableneighbourhoodscomparedto
approximately10,500onaverage10)andlowlevelsofinsurancepenetration(between~2040%in
themostvulnerableareas,dependingontenantsandsourceofflooding,comparedtothenational
averageof~6075%seeAppendixD)meantheREPassociatedwithfloodingismuchgreaterin
morevulnerableneighbourhoodsthanelsewhere.Incoastal/tidalfloodplains,forexample,when
incomeandinsurancepenetrationareconsidered,themostvulnerableneighbourhoods(5%by
NFVI)experienceovertwicetheREPcomparedtotheaverage.Influvialfloodplains,theREPisthree
timeshigher(Figure49).

0.009
0.008
RelativeEconomicPain

0.007
0.006
0.005
0.004
0.003
0.002
0.001
0
Allneighbourhoods 5%byNFVI 10%byNFVI 20%byNFVI

Allsources Coastal Fluvial Surfacewater

Avalueof0impliesexpectedannualfloodlossesarefullycoveredbyinsurance.Avalueof1impliesexpectedannualuninsuredfloodlossesareequalannual
income.

Figure49Presentday:RelativeeconomicpainByfloodsource
AnillustrationofthespatialdistributionofthepresentdayEADisprovidedinFigure410.

10Thisisanaverageacrossallthoselivinginaneighbourhoodnotjustthoseofworkingage.

40

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017


Topleft:Forallneighbourhoodsnoteneighbourhoodsarescaledtohaveanapproximatelyequalpopulation,hencethepatternofrisktendstohighlightrural
areasaswellasurbanareas.
Clockwisefromtopright:SelectedneighbourhoodsclassifiedbyNFVI.

Figure410Presentday:SpatialdistributionofExpectedAnnualDamages(EAD)
Note:Givenallneighbourhoodsareofsimilarpopulation,themappinghighlightssomeruralareasat
moresignificantrisk.Thismayreflectthehigheraverageprobabilityoffloodinginthoseareas.

41

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Inthefuture:TheEADassociatedwithfloodingaresettorise(from351milliontoday,residential
directdamagesonly,to1.1billionbythe2080s,assuminga+4oCclimatefuture,highpopulation
growthandacontinuationofcurrentadaptationapproaches).AtaUKscaletheincreaseinEAD
withinvulnerableneighbourhoods(20%byNFVI)is,ingeneral,inlinewiththisoverallincrease;
risingfrom81milliontodayto250millionbythe2080s(slightlygreaterthan20%).Thisisnotthe
caseinScotlandhowever,wherethecontributiontoEADfromthe20%mostvulnerable
neighbourhoodsincreasesfrom22%todayto29%bythe2080s.

Thedisproportionalityoftheriskofdamagesfacedincoastalareaspersists(withverysignificant,
butsimilar,increasesexperiencedbyallthoselivinginthecoastalfloodplain).Asimilarpatternis
projectedwithinfluvialandsurfacewaterfloodplains(withthedisproportionalityofEADremaining
astoday).

TheEADexperiencedbyanindividual,onaverage,alsoincreases(Figure411).Bythe2080s
(assuminga+4oCclimatefutureandhighpopulationgrowth)theEADperpersoninScotland
increasesto183perperson(comparedto95perpersoninEngland)withtheriskinthemost
vulnerableneighbourhoods(top20%byNFVI)increasingtwiceasquicklyaselsewhere(increasing
from93to206perperson).ThisisnotthecaseinEngland,WalesandNorthernIrelandwhere
moreandlessvulnerableneighbourhoodsexperienceasimilarrateofincreaseinEADperperson.

Whenincomeandinsuranceareconsidered,theincreaseinEADtranslatestosignificantincreasesin
theREPacrosstheUKandforallsourcesofflooding,particularlyforthemostvulnerable
neighbourhoods(Figure412).

42

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

0.800
%ContributiontoExpectedAnnualDamages
0.700

0.600
Residential(m)

0.500

0.400

0.300

0.200

0.100

0.000
PD

PD

PD

PD

PD
2020s
2050s
2080s

2020s
2050s
2080s

2020s
2050s
2080s

2020s
2050s
2080s

2020s
2050s
2080s
England NorthernIreland Scotland Wales UK

5%byNFVI 10%byNFVI 20%byNFVI



Allneighbourhoods:+40Cclimatefuture,highpopulationgrowthandacontinuationofcurrentadaptation

Figure411Futurechange:ExpectedAnnualDamagesBycountry

0.0180

0.0160

0.0140
RelativeEconomicPain

0.0120

0.0100

0.0080

0.0060

0.0040

0.0020

0.0000
2020s
2050s
2080s

2020s
2050s
2080s

2020s
2050s
2080s

2020s
2050s
2080s

2020s
2050s
2080s
PD

PD

PD

PD

PD

England NorthernIreland Scotland Wales UK

5%byNFVI 20%byNFVI Allareas



Allneighbourhoods:40Cclimatefuture,highpopulationgrowthandacontinuationofcurrentadaptation

Figure412Futurechange:RelativeeconomicpainBycountry

43

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

4.3 Urbanandruralinfluencesonflooddisadvantage

Summaryfindings

Manysociallyvulnerablepeoplelivinginthefloodplainareinurbansettings,howeverthosein
ruralsettingsare,ingeneral,exposedtomorefrequentflooding.
Bythe2080s,allneighbourhoodsinbothruralandurbansettingsexperiencesignificant
increasesinrisk,withthemostvulnerableneighbourhoodsinmoredispersedsettings(both
urbanandrural)experiencingslightlygreaterincreasesthanelsewhere.

Discussion
Presentday:AtaUKscale,urbansettingsdominatefloodrisk,accountingfor264million(75%)of
presentdayEADand5.2million(82%)ofthepeopleexposedtoflooding(Figure413).When
consideredfromtheperspectiveofvulnerableneighbourhoods(top20%byNFVI),however,the
floodrisksinruralneighbourhoodsaremoresignificant;accountingfor45%ofthetotal47million
EADand30%ofthepeopleexposedtoflooding.Whenthemostvulnerableneighbourhoodsare
considered(top5%byNFVI),thecontributionfromruralsettingsisevengreater,accountingfor11
millionoftheEAD(73%ofthetotal15million)and128,000people(58%ofthetotal221,500)living
infloodproneareas.

Thedisproportionalityintherisksfacedinruralcommunitiesismostnoticeablewhennormalisedby
population.ThishighlightsthattheEADexperiencedbyanindividualis,onaverage,higherforthose
livinginaruralsettingcomparedtothoseinanurbansetting(Figure413).

Thisishoweveracomplexpictureandsuggeststhatalthoughmanyvulnerablepeoplelivinginthe
floodplainareinurbansettings,thoseinruralsettingsare,onaverage,exposedtomorefrequent
flooding.Thismayreflectacombinationofthevaryingnaturalgeographiesofruralandurban
floodplainsandthehigherstandardsofprotectiontypicallyprovidedinurbansettings(andthe
technicaldifficultiesinprovidinghigherlevelsofprotectioninruralsettings).Itmayalsosuggest
thatinsufficientfocushasbeengiventoaddressingriskinvulnerableruralareaswithinFRMpolicy
andpractice.

Futurerisk:Assumingacontinuationofcurrentlevelsofadaptationthereisasignificantincreasein
riskacrossallsettlementtypesbythe2080s.Inmostsettings,moreandlessvulnerable
neighbourhoodsexperiencesimilarincreases(Figure414).

Thegreatestincreasesareseeninurbanmajorandminorconurbations(experiencinganincreasein
EADof200%and350%undera+2oCand+4oCclimatefuturerespectively)andruraltownandfringe
inasparsesetting(increasingby200%and400%).Inthesesettings,themostvulnerable
neighbourhoodsexperienceslightlyhigherpercentageincreasesinriskwhencomparedtoless
vulnerableneighbourhoods.Thissuggests,althoughthereasonsforthisaredifficulttodetermine,
thatmostvulnerableneighbourhoodsinmoredispersedsettings(bothurbanandrural)maybe
particularlydifficulttoaddresswithinthecurrentapproachtoadaptationandinvestment
frameworks.

44

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

6000000 300

ExpectedAnnualDamages(m)
5000000 250
Floodplainpopulation

4000000 200

3000000 150

2000000 100

1000000 50

0 0
5%byNFVI 10%byNFVI 20%byNFVI Allareas 5%byNFVI 10%byNFVI 20%byNFVI Allareas

Urban Rural Urban Rural



400 1800
ExpectedAnnualDamages:Individual()

Numberofpeopleexposedtofrequent
350 1600

300 1400
1200
250

flooding
1000
200
800
150
600
100 400
50 200
0 0
5%byNFVI 10%byNFVI 20%byNFVI Allareas 5%byNFVI 10%byNFVI 20%byNFVI Allareas

Urban Rural Urban Rural


Figure413Presentday:Acomparisonoffloodriskinruralandurbansettings

45

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
46
ChangefromPresentDay(%) ChangefromPresentDay(%) ChangefromPresentDay(%) ChangefromPresentDay(%)

0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%

Urbanmajor Urbanmajor Urbanmajor Urbanmajor


conurbation conurbation conurbation conurbation

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Urbanminor Urbanminor Urbanminor Urbanminor
conurbation conurbation conurbation conurbation

Urbancityand Urbancityand Urbancityand Urbancityand


town town town town

2020s
2020s
2020s
2020s

Urbancityand Urbancityand Urbancityand Urbancityand


towninasparse towninasparse towninasparse towninasparse
setting setting setting setting

2050s
2050s
2050s
2050s

+4oCclimatefuture,highpopulationgrowthandacontinuationofcurrentadaptation
AllNeighbourhoods
Ruraltownand Ruraltownand Ruraltownand Ruraltownand

2080s
2080s
2080s
2080s

fringe fringe fringe fringe


10%MostVulnerableNeighbourhoods

20%MostVulnerableNeighbourhoods
5%MostVulnerableNeighbourhoods

Ruraltownand Ruraltownand Ruraltownand Ruraltownand


fringeinasparse fringeinasparse fringeinasparse fringeinasparse
setting setting setting setting
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Ruralvillageand Ruralvillageand Ruralvillageand Ruralvillageand


dispersed dispersed dispersed dispersed

Figure414Futurerisks:ChangeinExpectedAnnualDamages(m)bysettlementtype
Ruralvillageand Ruralvillageand Ruralvillageand Ruralvillageand
dispersedina dispersedina dispersedina dispersedina
sparsesetting sparsesetting sparsesetting sparsesetting





Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

4.4 Localauthoritiesandflooddisadvantage

Summaryfindings

ClustersofhighsocialfloodriskexistinlocalauthoritiesacrosstheUK.
Insomelocalauthoritiesflooddisadvantageishighlylocalised,inothersitiswidespread.
Inmostcases,localauthoritiesthatexperiencethehighestlevelsofflooddisadvantagetoday
continuetodosointhefuture.Therearehoweverseveralexceptionswheretheincreaseis
muchfasterthanelsewhere.

Discussion
Presentday:TheSFRIprovidesthemostdirectmeasureofflooddisadvantage(whereexposureto
floodingandvulnerabilitycoincide)andhighlightsNorthernIreland,thecoastalareasfromtheWash
toHumber,SouthandNorthWales,andthelowlandsofScotlandasareasofhighflood
disadvantage(Figure415:Left).TheseclustersaremostnoticeablewhentheSFRIisnormalisedby
populationtoprovidearepresentativeindividualvalue(theSFRI:Individual).Thismetricalso
highlightsmanysimilarareasasthoseidentifiedwiththestandardSFRImeasured,butwiththe
additionofmanyareaswhereflooddisadvantageishighlylocalised(includingmoreruralareas);a
messagesupportedbycasestudiesreportedinAppendixE.

Figure415Presentday:Socialfloodriskindex(SFRI)
AcrosstheUKthelocalauthoritiesthatexperiencethegreatestlevelsofflooddisadvantage(as
determinedbytheSFRI)includeCityofKingstonuponHull;Boston;Belfast;EastLindsey;Glasgow;
47

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Swale;Newham;Leicester;Shepway;NorthEastLincolnshire,andBirmingham(Table43).Foreach
localauthority,theirnationalrankingaccordingtoeachresiliencemetric(introducedearlierin
Section3)isalsoprovided.Forexample,althoughKingstonuponHullisthemostflood
disadvantagedauthority(accordingtotheSocialFloodRiskIndex)andisrankedhighestintheUK
accordingtofloodplainpopulation,EAD(residential)andmanyothermetrics,itisnotthemost
sociallyvulnerable(ranking20thbyNFVIcalculatedasthepopulationweightedaverageacrossall
neighbourhoodsexposedtoflooding).Thishighlightstheimportanceofconsideringmultiple
metricstodevelopanunderstandingofriskanditsdrivers.

Table43Presentday:LocalauthoritiesrankedbySocialFloodRiskIndexandtheirrankingagainst
allothermetrics
Metric

ExpectedAnnualProbability

NumberofPeopleExposed

(EAD,m)Residentialonly

ExpectedAnnualDamages:
toFrequentFlooding(PEFf)

ExpectedAnnualDamages
SocialFloodRiskIndex:

RelativeEconomicPain
(per1000onthefloodplain)

NeighbourhoodFlood
offlooding:Individual
Floodplainpopulation

Individual(EADi,)*

VulnerabilityIndex
Inidvidual(iSFRI)

(NFVI)***
(REP)**
(EAPi)*

LocalAuthority(rankedtop25bySFRI)
CityofKingstonuponHull(B) 31 1 1 1 1 1 38 20
BostonDistrict(B) 6 12 109 9 7 73 71 1
Belfast 1 27 39 18 1 55 13 2
EastLindseyDistrict 21 9 7 14 12 105 77 5
GlasgowCity 14 15 29 4 6 48 25 50
SwaleDistrict(B) 7 49 51 32 9 54 14 10
NewhamLondonBorough 46 3 188 17 2 124 65 15
CityofLeicester(B) 19 20 116 12 16 25 32 13
ShepwayDistrict 9 65 38 28 14 15 36 16
NorthEastLincolnshire(B) 34 10 14 19 11 97 21 19
BirminghamDistrict(B) 47 8 111 7 17 129 66 22
WestDunbartonshire 2 184 4 73 26 6 4 18
DoncasterDistrict(B) 52 11 113 5 9 79 30 64
RhonddaCynonTafRhonddaCynonTaf 25 37 17 25 58 107 147 14
DerryCityandStrabane 5 169 58 109 136 43 43 3
Slough(B) 20 67 47 30 19 50 49 60
WestLindseyDistrict 12 96 86 40 39 61 34 7
HammersmithandFulhamLondonBorough 84 4 69 8 8 51 250 84
EastAyrshire 4 231 26 131 66 20 8 9
SouthwarkLondonBorough 82 6 179 26 3 90 132 67
CasnewyddNewport 54 25 25 36 20 4 53 59
GreenwichLondonBorough 65 16 194 48 36 147 189 43
CityofBristol(B) 44 56 36 11 21 67 59 65
BarkingandDagenhamLondonBorough 36 78 172 162 103 122 95 8
WalthamForestLondonBorough 48 60 68 35 71 99 168 37
*Thea vera geva l ueba s edonthepopula ti onwi thi nthefl oodpla i n
**Thedi rectes ti ma teoftheIndex.
1 in the top 5 ranked nationally
10 in the top 10 ranked nationally
25 in the top 25 ranked nationally
26 outside of the top 25 nationally

Note:Rankingbasedonthetotalof391CouncilAreasinScotlandandDistrictCouncilAreasinNorthernIrelanddistricts(includingUnitaryAuthoritiesand
LondonBoroughs)inEnglandandWales
ArankingbasedonSFRIhowevercanmaskthoseareaswherefewervulnerablepeopleareexposed
tomorefrequentflooding;anissuehighlightedthroughoutthesupportingcasestudiesinwhich

48

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

intervieweesconfirmedtheverylocalnatureofvulnerability(toasinglefamilyorindividual)see
AppendixE.

Althoughitisoutsideofthescopeofthisstudytoconsiderthevulnerabilityofspecificindividuals,
analysisoftherisksfacedonaveragebythoselivinginalocalauthorityarearevealsadifferent
distributionofdisadvantage.Table44thereforerankslocalauthoritiesaccordingtotheSFRI:
Individual(theSFRInormalisedbyfloodplainpopulation).Someauthorities(e.g.BelfastandBoston)
appearonbothlists,highlightingthehighchanceofflooding,thelargenumberofpeopleexposed
andtheirvulnerabilityintheseareas.Others,suchasWestSomersetforexample,appearonly
whenconsideredfromtheperspectiveofanaverageindividual,highlightingthatalthoughthere
maybefewervulnerablepeoplelivingwithinthoseauthorities,theyareoftenexposedtofrequent
flooding.

ScottishlocalauthoritiestendtoappearhigherontheiSFRIlistthanintheSFRIlist.Thisislikelyto
arisefromacombinationoffactors.Firstly,thenumberofpeoplelivingwithinneighbourhoods
identifiedasvulnerable(accordingtotheNFVI)isgenerallygreaterinScotlandthanfortheUK.
Secondly,thoselivingonthefloodplaininScotland,onaverage,areexposedtomorefrequent
floodingthanelsewhere.ThelowerSFRIrankinggiventoScottishlocalauthoritiesreflectsthelower
numberofpeoplelivinginfloodproneareasthatmayinpartreflectstherelativebalancebetween
urbanandruralcommunitiesinScotlandcomparedtoelsewhereintheUK.

ThedistinctionbetweenthenatureoftheflooddisadvantageinHull(Ranked#1accordingtothe
SFRImetric)andWestSomerset(Ranked#24accordingSFRI:Individualmetric)isillustratedinFigure
416.ThedenseurbansettingofHullandthesparsedispersedsettingofWestSomersetdrivethese
differences,andthenatureoftheFRMopportunities.

49

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Table44Presentday:LocalauthoritiesrankedbySocialFloodRiskIndex:Individualandtheir
rankingagainstallothermetrics
Metric

ExpectedAnnualProbability

NumberofPeopleExposed

(EAD,m)Residentialonly

ExpectedAnnualDamages:
toFrequentFlooding(PEFf)

ExpectedAnnualDamages

RelativeEconomicPain
SocialFloodRiskIndex

(per1000onthefloodplain)

NeighbourhoodFlood
offlooding:Individual
Floodplainpopulation

Individual(EADi,)*

VulnerabilityIndex
(NFVI)***
(REP)**
(EAPi)*
(SFRI)
LocalAuthority(rankedtop25byIndividual
SFRI)
Belfast 3 27 39 78 15 55 13 2
WestDunbartonshire 12 184 4 9 40 6 4 18
Inverclyde 49 380 10 10 244 36 5 21
EastAyrshire 19 231 26 29 80 20 8 9
DerryCityandStrabane 15 169 58 52 150 162 43 3
BostonDistrict(B) 2 12 109 173 7 73 71 1
SwaleDistrict(B) 6 49 51 144 23 54 14 10
Hartlepool(B) 46 345 43 140 160 25 2 66
ShepwayDistrict 9 65 38 62 14 15 36 16
SirYnysMonIsleofAnglesey 80 384 32 108 239 21 29 11
MidUlster 60 341 42 46 271 126 28 33
WestLindseyDistrict 17 96 86 27 53 61 34 7
DundeeCity 54 324 24 24 241 99 45 49
GlasgowCity 5 15 29 26 6 48 25 50
Clackmannanshire 70 371 19 18 190 24 10 41
NorthAyrshire 26 155 27 14 58 30 11 54
WeymouthandPortlandDistrict(B) 65 321 7 50 59 2 1 179
DumfriesandGalloway 31 174 5 13 36 8 7 74
CityofLeicester(B) 8 20 116 76 30 144 32 13
Slough(B) 16 67 47 60 33 50 49 60
EastLindseyDistrict 4 9 162 269 12 105 77 5
Renfrewshire 32 159 8 20 44 18 9 86
BlaenauGwentBlaenauGwent 57 260 161 53 230 163 61 6
WestSomersetDistrict 77 330 41 69 129 19 44 40
RhonddaCynonTafRhonddaCynonTaf 14 37 172 99 72 226 147 14
*Thea verageva lueba s edonthepopul ationwithi nthefl oodpla i n
**Thedirectes ti mateoftheIndex.
1 in the top 5 ranked nationally
10 in the top 10 ranked nationally
25 in the top 25 ranked nationally
26 outside of the top 25 nationally
Note:Rankingbasedonthetotalof391CouncilAreasinScotlandandDistrictCouncilAreasinNorthernIrelanddistricts(includingUnitaryAuthoritiesand
LondonBoroughs)inEnglandandWales

50

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Hull:HighlevelsofSocialFloodRiskarisefromalargenumberofvulnerablepeopleexposedtoflooding


Somerset:HighlevelsofSocialFloodRisk(individual)arisebecausepocketsofvulnerableneighbourhoodsareexposedtoflooding

Figure416HullandWestSomerset:Contextualdifferencesinthedriversofgeographicflood
disadvantage

51

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Futurerisks:Bythe2080sthenumberoflocalauthorityareasexperiencingsignificantflood
disadvantage(asdefinedherebySFRIabove50per1000)increasessubstantiallybythe2080(given
a4Cclimatefuture)Figure417.Scotland,NorthernIreland,thenorthandsouthcoastsofWales
andtheeastcoastofEnglandexperiencesomeofthemostsignificantincreases.

Left:Presentday
Right:2080s(4C,highpopulationgrowth,currentlevelsofadaptation):Note:TheincreaseinpopulationactstoreducetheSFRI:individualindexshownhere
butmayincreasetheSFRI

Figure417Futurerisks:Changesingeographicflooddisadvantage(SFRI:Individual)

52

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Table45presentsthetwentyfivehighestrankedlocalauthoritiesbySFRIinthe2080sandtheir
changeinrankingfromthepresentday.Inmanycases,thoselocalauthoritiesthatexperiencethe
highestlevelsofflooddisadvantagetodaycontinuetodosointhefuture.Thereareseveralnotable
exceptions,forexample,theflooddisadvantageincreasesmoreintheHighlandsofScotland,Cardiff
inWales,andNorthSomersetandthenorthLondonBoroughsofEnfield,TowerHamletsand
HaringeyinEnglandthanelsewhere(increasingtheirrelativeranking,ashighlightedinTable45).
Theunderlyingreasonsforthisarethevariationinclimateinfluencesandtheassumedapproachto
adaptation.

Table45Futurerisks:LocalauthoritiesrankedbySocialFloodRiskIndex(2020s,2050sand2080s)

PD 2020s 2050s 2080s


LocalAuthority Country RankingbySFRI
NewhamLondon England 7 5 3 1
Boston England 2 2 1 2
Hull England 1 1 2 3
Glasgow Scotland 5 4 9 4
Belfast NorthernIreland 3 3 4 5
Highland Scotland 72 15 5 6
EastLindsey England 4 8 7 7
Leicester England 8 6 8 8
Shepway England 9 7 6 9
Birmingham England 11 9 11 10
Swale England 6 10 10 11
BarkingandDagenham,London England 24 18 12 12
Enfield,London England 48 30 17 13
Warrington England 34 34 23 14
Southwark,London England 20 17 13 15
NorthSomerset England 372 359 276 16
TowerHamlets, London England 35 26 19 17
WestDunbartonshire Scotland 12 12 15 18
Slough England 16 13 16 19
Greenwich,London England 22 20 18 20
WalthamForest, London England 25 22 21 21
Haringey,London England 50 42 27 22
Salford England 42 33 25 23
RhonddaCynonTafRhonddaCynonTaf Wales 14 14 22 24
CaerdyddCardiff Wales 33 25 20 25
*LocalauthorityboundariesfromOrdnanceSurveyOpenDataBoundaryLine

53

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

4.5 Citiesinrelativedeclineandtheirinfluenceonflooddisadvantage

Summaryfindings

Sixteenofthe24cityregionsclassedasinrelativedeclinebyPikeetal.(.,2016)experience
levelsofflooddisadvantageabovetheUKaverage,suggestingfloodscouldundermineeconomic
growthinareasthatneeditmostandleadtoaspiralofdecline(ifrepeatedfloodsoccur).

Discussion
Sixteenofthe24cityregionclassedasinrelativeeconomicdeclinebyPikeetal.(2016)experience
levelsofflooddisadvantageabovetheUKaverage.Thisreflectsacombinationofinfluencesbut
fromtheperspectiveoftheanalysishere,isdrivenbyhigherthanaveragelevelsofvulnerability(as
shownbytheNFVI)andagreaterthanaveragenumberofpeopleexposedtoafrequentflood(in
Glasgow,forexample,thoselivinginthefloodplainarealmosttwiceaslikelytoexperiencefrequent
floodingthantheUKaverage).Whenincomeandinsurancepenetrationareconsidered,theREP
associatedwithfloodingissignificantlyhigherinthesesixteencities,reflectingthelowerlevelsof
income(onaverage)andlowerlevelsofinsurance(Figure418).

0.00600

0.00500
RelativeEconomicPain(REP)

0.00400

0.00300

0.00200

0.00100

0.00000
Grimsby

Dundee

Middlesbrough

Stoke
Nottingham

Birkenhead

Barnsley
Belfast

Newport

Telford
Blackburn
Wigan

Rochdale
Huddersfield

Bradford

Sheffield
Sunderland
UKAverage

Burnley
Averageofcitiesindecline

Glasgow

Hull

Birmingham
Blackpool

Bolton

Liverpool

Figure418CityregionsinRelativeDecline:RelativeEconomicPainofflooding

54

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

4.6 SuitabilityofdeprivationasaguideforFRMinvestment

Summaryfindings

TheIndexofMultipleDeprivation(IMD)Deprivationsfailstoallidentifyareasofgreatestflood
vulnerability;withfloodriskinthemostvulnerableareas(definedbytheNFVI)consistently
greaterthanthatindeprivedareas(definedbytheIMD).

Discussion
TheUKgovernmentcollectsdataondeprivationacrossarangeofdomains(includingincome,
health,housingquality,availabilityofservices)associatedwithgeographicareas.Thesearethen
combinedintoameasureofmultipledeprivation(theIMD)andusedacrossgovernmentto
understandthedistributionofsocialinequalitiesassociatedwithaneighbourhoodandtoinform
resourcesallocation.TheIMDisnothoweverameasureoffloodsocialvulnerabilityperse.This
sectionexploresthesuitabilityofIMDasaguidebycomparingthefloodingrisksinthemost
deprivedareaswiththemostfloodvulnerableneighbourhoodsasdefinedbytheNFVI.

Presentday:Floodvulnerability(asdefinedbytheNFVI)andareasofdeprivation(asdefinedbythe
IMD)takeaccountofmanysimilarcharacteristicsofaneighbourhood(including,forexample,
income).TheNFVI,however,focusesmorespecificallyonthosecharacteristicsthatmakea
neighbourhoodvulnerabletoalossinwellbeingfollowingafloodratherthanthemoregeneral
expressionofdeprivationprovidedbytheIMD(forexample,theNFVIincludestheavailabilityof
communitysupportnetworksduringaflood).

Floodriskinthemostvulnerableareas(thetop20%bytheNFVI)isconsistentlygreaterthaninthe
mostdeprivedareas(thetop20%bytheIMD)Figure419.ThissuggeststhattheIMDfailsto
identifyallthoseareasatgreatestflooddisadvantage.Withoutfuturespatialcomparison(outside
thescopeofthisstudy),itisdifficulttodetermineexactlywhichneighbourhoodsdrivethis
difference.GiventheroleoftheIMDinFRMpolicyacrosstheUKthesedifferencesmaybe
significantandraisequestionsoverwhethertheIMDisthebestmeasureforpromotingRawlsian
FRMinvestmentdecisions(notwithstandingthepositiveinfluencetheIMDhashadintargeting
investmentprioritiesinEnglandthroughtheFDGiAtodate).

Futurerisks:GiventhefocusoftheIMDondeprivationtheseneighbourhoodsaretypically
associatedwithlowerincomesandhencereducedinsurancepenetrationandincreasedREP
experiencedbythoseflooded.Bythe2080s,therefore,significantincreasesinREPinthemost
deprivedareasareprojected.

55

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

1600000 500000

No.ofpeopleexposedtofrequentfloodingUK
450000
No.ofpeoplelivinginfloodproneareasUK
1400000
400000
1200000
350000
1000000
300000

800000 250000

200000
600000
150000
400000
100000
200000
50000

0 0
Top5%ile Top10%ile Top20%ile Top5%ile Top10%ile Top20%ile

IndexofMultipleDeprivation IndexofMultipleDeprivation

NeighbourhoodFloodVulnerabilityIndex NeighbourhoodFloodVulnerabilityIndex

90 60

80
SocialFloodRiskIndex:Individual(iSFRI)

50
ExpectedAnnualDamagesUK(m)

70

60 40

50
30
40

30 20

20
10
10

0 0
Top5%ile Top10%ile Top20%ile Top5%ile Top10%ile Top20%ile

IndexofMultipleDeprivation IndexofMultipleDeprivation

NeighbourhoodFloodVulnerabilityIndex NeighbourhoodFloodVulnerabilityIndex

Figure419Presentday:Acomparisonofrisksindeprivedandvulnerableneighbourhoods

56

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

4.7 Recentdevelopmentsinvulnerableneighbourhoods(England)

Summaryfindings

Recentdevelopments(200814)inareaspronetomorefrequentcoastalandsurfacewater
flooding(1in75yearsormorefrequent)havedisproportionallytakenplaceinthemost
vulnerableneighbourhoods.
Bythe2080salldevelopmentsbuiltbetween200814experienceasignificantincreasein
exposuretoflooding.Acrossallsourcesofflooding,theincreaseisgreatestinthose
developmentsbuiltinthemostvulnerableneighbourhoods(butthisisparticularlythecasein
coastalfloodplains).

Discussion
Thissectionexploresthedegreetowhichnewdevelopmenthastakenplaceinvulnerable
neighbourhoodsexposedtofloodingandhowtheriskinthesedevelopmentsmaychangeinthe
future.

Presentday:CurrentnationalplanningpoliciesacrosstheUK(England:NationalPlanningPolicy
Framework,Wales:TechnicalAdviceNote15,Scotland:OnlinePlanningAdvice,NorthernIreland:
PlanningPolicyStatement15)typicallyseektoavoidinappropriatefloodplaindevelopment.
However,analysisbytheAdaptationSubCommittee(ASC)ofnewresidentialdevelopmentbuilt
between200814foundthatfloodplaindevelopmentcontinues(ASC,2015).Furtheranalysisofthe
datacollatedbytheASCherehighlightsthatofatotalof1,199,000newresidentialpropertiesbuilt
intheperiod200814,225,000(20%)werebuiltinfloodproneareas(acrossallsources),with25%
ofthosepropertiesbeingbuiltinthe20%mostvulnerableneighbourhoods(Figure420).


Futuremapsassumehighpopulationgrowthandacontinuationofcurrentadaptation

Figure420Presentandfutureexposureofnewdevelopmentstoflooding
Incoastalfloodplains,31%ofalldevelopments(22,241properties)tookplacewithinthe20%most
vulnerableneighbourhoods(Table46).Forareaspronetosurfacewaterflooding,24%ofrecent
developments(22,456properties)havebeenbuiltinthe20%mostvulnerableneighbourhoods.
However,thereisnoevidencetosuggestthatmostvulnerableneighbourhoodsarealsosubjectto
greaterlevelsofdevelopmentthanelsewhere(18.7%ofnewdevelopmentsoccurinthetop20%of
neighbourhoodsbyNFVI).

57

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Table46Presentday:Newresidentialdevelopmentinareaspronetoflooding(built200814)and
vulnerability

RecentDevelopments(200814)No.ofProperties
All Morevulnerableneighbourhoods(20%by
neighbourhoods NFVI)
Alldevelopments 1,404,000 297,046
Builtonfloodplain 11% 14%
Residentialdevelopments
1,198,656 224,195
only
Builtonfloodplain 12% 13%
Breakdownbysource(withinthe1:1000yearundefendedfloodplain)
Coastal 71,313 22,241 31%
Fluvial 61,726 11,792 19%
Surfacewater 92,049 22,456 24%
Areassubjecttoveryfrequentflooding(1:30yearsormorefrequent)
Coastal 3,653 974 27%
Fluvial 8,827 892 10%
Surfacewater 19,021 4,573 24%
Areassubjecttofrequentflooding(1:75yearsormorefrequent)
Coastal 8,482 2,084 25%
Fluvial 18,665 2,378 13%
Surfacewater 34,842 8,576 25%

Futurerisks:Bythe2080salldevelopmentsbuiltbetween200814willexperienceasignificant
increaseintheirexposuretoflooding(Figure421).Acrossallsourcesoffloodingtheincreaseis
greatestinthosedevelopmentsbuiltinthemostvulnerableneighbourhoods(primarilyinLondon).
Thediscrepancyinfuturechangesinexposurebetweendevelopmentsthathavetakenplaceinmore
andlessvulnerableneighbourhoodsismostsignificantatthecoast.Ofthosedevelopmentsbuilton
thecoastalfloodplain,25%areexposedtofrequentflooding(morefrequentthan1:75years,on
average).Bythe2080sthisincreasesto40%(underbotha+2oCand+4oCclimatefuture).

Note:Thereisnoclearreasonfortheslightreductioninexposurebythe2020s(particularly
noticeableforcoastal).Thismaybeduetoadaptationmeasures,manyofwhichmakeassumptions
andapproximationswhichcouldleadtoasmallreductioninriskwhentheclimatechangeincreaseis
small(i.e.notlargeenoughyettooutpaceadaptation).

58

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

1.6
Increaseinrecentdevelopmentsbecoming
1.5
1.4
exposedtoflooding>1:75

1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
Year

Allneighbourhoods Top20%byNFVI Top10%byNFVI Top5%byNFVI



20Cclimatefuture,highpopulationgrowthandacontinuationofcurrentadaptation:Allfloodsources

2.2
Increaseinrecentdevelopmentsbecoming

1.8
exposedtoflooding>1:75

1.6

1.4
1.2
1
0.8
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
Year

Allneighbourhoods Top20%byNFVI Top10%byNFVI Top5%byNFVI


40Cclimatefuture,highpopulationgrowthandacontinuationofcurrentadaptation:Allfloodsources

2.6
ncreaseinrecentdevelopmentsbecoming

2.4
2.2
exposedtoflooding>1:75

2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
Year

Allneighbourhoods Top20%byNFVI Top10%byNFVI Top5%byNFVI



40Cclimatefuture,highpopulationgrowthandacontinuationofcurrentadaptation:Coastalfloodareas

Figure421Futurerisks:Growthinthenumberofrecentdevelopments(200814)exposedto
flooding

59

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

4.8 LongterminvestmentinEngland:Evidenceforgreaterinvestmentinvulnerable
neighbourhoods

Summaryfindings

Thereisstrongevidencetosupportimprovingtheprotectionprovidedtothemostvulnerable
neighbourhoodsinEngland.

Discussion
WithintheEnvironmentAgencysLTISforEngland(thatseekstoexplorethelongterminvestment
needsforFRMinEngland,asintroducedearlierinSection2.2),theinvestmentscenariowhich
maximisestheNetPresentValueoverthe100yearperiodisreferredtoasthesocalledoptimised
investmentscenario.Thisprovidesautilitarianinvestmentappraisalandexcludesconsiderationof
fundingsources(e.g.PartnershipFundingdoesnotinfluencetheinvestmentcase).Theanalysis
presentedintheCCRAoftheLTISpolicychoices(asimplifiedsetofpolicyoptionsfromdonothing
toimprove+withatimehorizonstretchingthroughto2100,asdescribedinTable47)isextended
heretoexploretheimpactonriskinsociallyvulnerableneighbourhoods.

Table47TheLTISpolicyoptions

PolicyOption Influenceonexpenditure Influenceonrisk


DoNothing Passiveassets:noexpenditureon Passiveassetsdegradeandfailoverashort
maintenanceorreplacementof periodoftime.Theleveloffloodriskwill
passiveassets. increasequicklyovertimeasassetsfail.
Activeassets:notincludedin Nonoperationofactiveassetsincreasesrisk
expenditure. intheveryshortterm.
Maintaincrestlevel Maintainandreplacecurrentassetsto Theleveloffloodriskwillincreaseovertime
theirexistingcrestlevels. duetoclimatechange.
Maintaincurrent Maintaincurrentassets,replacewith Theleveloffloodriskwillremainstaticas
floodrisk larger/longer/morerobuststructures. thestandardofprotectionprovidedkeeps
Buildnewassets. pacewithclimatechange.
Improve Maintainandreplacecurrentassets. Theleveloffloodriskreducesasassetsare
Assetstobereplacedwith replacedwithonesthatofferabetter
larger/longer/morerobuststructures. standardofprotection.
Buildnewassets.
Improve+ Maintainandreplacecurrentassets. Theleveloffloodriskreducesasassetsare
Assetstobereplacedwith replacedwithonesthatofferabetter
larger/longer/morerobuststructures. standardofprotection.
Buildnewassets.

Table48andFigure422showthepercentageofresidentialpropertiesexposedtofrequent
flooding(areturnperiodof1:75yearsorless)that,undertheoptimisedinvestmentscenario,are
assignedeachLTISpolicyoption.Theresultssuggestthatthereisastrongutilitariancasefor
improvingtheprotectionaffordedtosociallyvulnerableneighbourhoods(withnearly55%of
propertiesinsociallyvulnerableneighbourhoods,definedbythetop5%byNFVI,assignedan
ImproveorImprove+policyoptioncomparedtoc.35%onaverage).Residentialpropertiesinsocially
vulnerableneighbourhoodsarealsolesslikelytobeassignedadonothingormaintaincrestpolicy
choiceindicatingpossibledeterioratingornochangeinprotectionstandardswhencomparedto
residentialpropertiesonaverage(c.48%comparedto61%).Togethertheseresultssuggestthat
60

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

thereisadirectlongtermeconomiccaseforgreaterinvestmentinFRMinvulnerable
neighbourhoods(althoughthisisaninferencewhichwillneedtobeexploredfurtherinfuture
research).

Table48TherelationshipofLTISpolicychoicesandneighbourhoodvulnerability
Neighbourhood PercentageofNeighbourhoodsassignedanLTISPolicyChoice (R4Investmentscenario)
byNFVI IP4
IP2 IP3
IP1 Maintain IP5 IP6
Do Maintain
Donothing current Improve Improve+
minimum crestlevel
floodrisk
Top5% 27% 0% 15% 3.2% 10% 45%
Top10% 26% 0% 18% 3.4% 12% 41%
Top20% 26% 0% 22% 3.3% 13% 36%
All 31% 0% 30% 3.5% 12% 23%

50%
Percentageofresdientialpropertiesexposedtofrequentflooding

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
Donothing Dominimum Maintaincrestlevel Maintaincurrentflood Improve Improve+
risk
IP1 IP2 IP3 IP4 IP5 IP6
LTISR4PolicyChoice

Top5% Top10% Top20% All



Frequentflooding:1:75yearsormorefrequent:Note:IP2isnotconsideredinLTISpolicyinvestmentoptionselection

Figure422PercentageofresidentialpropertiesinareasreceivingeachLTISPolicychoice

61

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

5.0 CONCLUSIONSANDPOLICYRECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 ReconfigureexistingFRMmetrics

#1:Introducenewmetricsthatbetterreflectthenatureoffloodvulnerabilityandtherisksfaced
byvulnerableneighbourhoods.

Theresearchpresentedherereinforcestheneedtoreconfigureexistingmetricsofvulnerabilityand
risktobettercapturethedifferentialnatureoftherisksfacedinvulnerablecommunities.

Toovercomethedeficienciesinexistingapproaches,threenewmetricsshouldbeused(alongside
existingmetrics)toprovideabetterunderstandingoffloodriskandmonitoringofFRMoutcomes:

NeighbourhoodFloodVulnerabilityIndex(NFVI):TheNFVIprovidesanimprovedexpressionof
floodvulnerability,andisputforwardasanalternative/replacementtotheIndexofMultiple
DeprivationinFRMdecisionmakingandasanevolutionofpreviousvulnerabilitymetrics.
SocialFloodRiskIndex(SFRI):TheSFRIisusedtoprovideacombinedexpressionofprobability,
exposureandvulnerabilityandprovidesameansofdirectlycomparingriskinoneareawith
anotherinawaythatexplicitlyaccountsforvulnerabilityandthepotentiallossinwellbeingof
residents.
RelativeEconomicPain(REP):TheREPconsiderstheinfluenceoflowerincomelevelsandflood
insurancepenetrationtobetterreflecttheexperienceofagiveneconomiclossinmoreandless
vulnerableneighbourhoods.TheREPhighlightsthesystemicflooddisadvantageexperiencedby
thoselivinginvulnerableneighbourhoods,whenincomeandinsurancetakeup(afunctionof
tenure,incomeandhistoryofflooding)areconsidered.Thishighlightsthesignificantrolethat
income,tenureandinsuranceplayinsystemicallydisadvantagingthemostfloodvulnerable
communities(regardlessofothercharacteristicsthatmakecommunitiesfloodvulnerable).

Theroleofthesenewmetricswithintheappraisalprocessanddefinitionofoutcomemeasuresare
discussedfurtherinthefollowingrecommendations.

5.2 SetclearsocialoutcomesforFRMandmeasuresuccess

#2Reconfigureoutcomemeasurestomonitorflooddisadvantagebaseduponabetter
understandingoffloodvulnerability.

TosomedegreeFRMpoliciesacrosstheUKpromotethenotionoftargetingefforttowards
managingtheriskforsociallyvulnerablepopulations(throughformalprocessessuchastheFDGiAin
Englandandmoreinformalconsiderationofsocialfloodvulnerabilityascriteriaforprioritisationin
Scotland).However,thereisnoroutineassessmentoftheextenttowhichpoliciesachievethis
(notwithstandingthatinEnglandoutcomesforhouseholdsindeprivedareasaremonitoredthrough
OutcomeMeasure2c).AprerequisitetodeliveringgreatersocialjusticeinFRMisthereforeto
monitorperformancemoredirectlyinthiscontext.

Thiscouldincludeassessinglevelsofsystemicflooddisadvantage(byroutinelyrecordinga
comparisonoftheriskfacedbythemoreandlessvulnerable)aswellasgeographicflood

62

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

disadvantage(focusing,forexample,onnumberofhomesprotectedinsociallyvulnerable
neighbourhoodsdefinedbyNFVItop5%and20%ileandrankinglocalauthoritiesbytheSFRI.
Thesemeasureswouldbeanalternative,forexample,tooutcomesbasedontheIMD.

5.3 EnsureFRMinvestmentappropriatelytargetsthesociallyvulnerable

#3EmbedpositivediscriminationinFRMinvestmentdecisionstotargetsupporttothemost
vulnerablecommunities.

ManypolicydocumentsacrossEngland,Wales,ScotlandandNorthernIrelandrefertoreducing
vulnerability.Theonlyformalmechanismfortargetinginvestmenttowardsmorevulnerable
neighbourhoodshoweverisinEnglandthroughtheFloodDefenceGrantinAid(FDGiA).Although
FDGiAusestheIMDasthebasis(seeprevioussection),thisisagoodstartandonethatshouldbe
consideredacrosstheUK(althoughitisrecognisedthatelsewhereinformalprioritisationprocesses
existwiththeaimofhelpingthemostvulnerable).ThisisnottosaythattheprocessinEnglandis
perfect(asevidencedthroughthecontinuedflooddisadvantageinEngland)andfurtherworkis
neededtoformaliseapproachesthattargetthemostfloodvulnerablewithintheinvestment
planningprocess;aconclusionsupportedbythelongtermeconomiccaseforimprovingthe
protectionaffordedtovulnerableneighbourhoodssuggestedbytheLTIS.

Theresearchpresentedheresuggeststhattodevelopanewapproachthatbettermanagesriskin
thesociallyvulnerableneighbourhoodsitwillbeimportanttorecognisethat:

Economicefficiency(utilitarian)criteriamaynot,alone,becapableofadequatelyassisting
particularlyvulnerableareas(anddeliveringRawlsianoutcomes).Anapproachbasedsolelyon
economicefficiencyisunlikelytosignificantlyreducedisadvantageindispersedrural
communities,insomecoastalfloodplainsorelsewherewherethecostsofprovidingtraditional
schemesisrelativelyhighcomparedtoanarrowdefinitionofeconomicdamage.
Anyrequirementforlocalcontributions(forexample,asrequiredinEngland)mustensure
bothresidentialpropertiesandnonresidentialproperties(e.g.smallbusinesses)within
vulnerableneighbourhoodsaretreatedpreferentially.Withoutpositivediscriminationtowards
bothresidentialandnonresidentialproperties,itmaybedifficultforfloodprotectionschemes
indeprivedareasofmixedlandusetoachievethenecessarynationalprioritisation.
Inmanylocations,particularlyinmanyruralneighbourhoods,aconventionalflooddefence
schememaysimplynotbefeasible.Thereisaneedtobettersupportthesociallyvulnerable
neighbourhoodstodevelopcommunitylevelsolutions,installingappropriatepropertylevel
protectionandaccessinginsurance.Thisisequallyapplicableinmanyareaswherelowstandard
schemesareinplaceandsignificantresidualriskpersists.

Tacklingtheseissueswillrequireanacceptancethataddressingfloodriskinvulnerablecommunities
isacomplexendeavourandthatFRMisonlypartofthesolutionandwillneedtobeintegratedwith
otherpolicyendeavourstoreduceoravoidexacerbatingexposuretofloodingandvulnerability.

63

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

5.4 EnsureFRMactivelysupportsintegratedsolutions

#4EnsureFRMactivelysupportsinclusivegrowth,thedeliveryofmultifunctionalandresilient
developmentswhilstcontinuingtodeliverfloodriskreductionbenefits.

Lowincomeandpoorhealth,togetherwithalackofcommunitycapacityandsocialcapital,are
importantdriversofsocialvulnerabilitytoflooding.Thesearemostdirectlyinfluencedbyagendas
outsideofFRMpolicy,includingbroadereconomicdevelopmentandsocialpolicythatseekto
supportinclusivegrowth(toensurethateconomicprosperitybenefitsall)aswellasgeneralwelfare
provision.TheroleofFRMpolicyinsupportingthesebroaderagendas(andviceversa)willbevital
indeliveringsociallyjustFRMoutcomes.

Planning(nationalandlocal),forexample,hasacentralroletoplayinthisprocessasgoodurban
planningstimulateseconomicgrowthaswellaspromotingpositivehealthandfloodmanagement
outcomes(asrecognisedacrosstheUKwithGardenCitiesfirmlyonthepoliticalagenda,TCPA,
2012).Theevidencepresentedhere,throughtheanalysisoftheNFVIandtherelativeeconomic
pain(REP)metrics,reinforcesthesupportformoreintegratedplanningthatlinkseconomicand
socialregeneration,bluegreenplanningprinciples(e.g.embeddingSustainableUrbanDrainage
Systems,SUDS,inlocaldevelopmentplans),encouragingfloodandbroaderclimateresilience
(throughbuildingregulationthatsupportsustainableplacemakingandresilientdesign)and
ensuringnewdevelopmentsprovidetherighthomesintherightplaces(DCLG,2017).

OneapproachtoencouragingthiswouldbetoreconsiderthewayinwhichFRMfundingisgearedby
supportingmultiplegovernmentandprivatesectorfundingstreams,includingregenerationand
economicgrowththatencouragesemploymenttoberetainedlocallytopromotehigherincomes
andhencereducedvulnerability.Suchstrategicactionisnoteasy,requiringlocalauthoritiesandthe
planningsystemtorecognisethechallenge,butifappropriatelysupportedofferssignificant
opportunitytoreduceflooddisadvantage.

ThepreferentialweightinggiventotheprotectionofdeprivedhouseholdsinEngland(throughthe
FDGiA)couldbedevelopedfurthertobettersupportregenerationnotonlyinEnglandbutacrossthe
UK.Indoingso,itwillbeimportanttorecognisethat,atpresent,theFDGiAprocessmakesno
distinctionbetweensmallbusinessesoperatingindeprivedareasandthoseinmoreaffluentareas;
inbothcasesbusinessesareexpectedtomakeafinancialcontributiontoascheme(through
PartnershipFunding).Thisiscanbeasignificantbarrierwhenflooddefenceschemesprotectamix
ofcommercialandresidentialproperties.Insuchsettings,theeconomicincomegenerating
infrastructure(i.e.businesses)inlessaffluentareasaretreatedinthesamewayassimilar
infrastructureinmoreaffluentareas.Theabsenceofpreferentialweightinggiventobusinessescan
beasignificantbarriertosecuringflooddefencefundinginvulnerableurbanareasrequiring
significantlengthsofdefencetoprotectamixofresidentialandnonresidentialproperties.

Reconfiguringtheflooddefencegrantingprocesswillbeanimportantsteptowardsthegoalof
ensuringFRMfundingprocessesalignwith,andcomplement,broaderactivitiesthatincombination
delivermultibenefits(includinghealthandwellbeingoutcomes)aswellasFRMoutcomes.

64

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

5.5 Improvetakeupofpropertylevelprotectionandcommunitylevelmeasures

#5Improvetakeupofappropriatepropertylevelmeasuresandwidercommunitylevel
approachesinvulnerableneighbourhoods.

Althoughnotasilverbullet,propertylevelmeasurescanprovidealegitimatecontributiontoFRM.
Evidencesuggestshoweverthetakeupofgovernmentgrantstosupportpropertylevelmeasures
(e.g.whenprovidedfollowingafloodevent)issignificantlylowerinvulnerablecommunitiesthanin
thepopulationaswhole.Thisreflectsseveraldifficultiesthatarecharacteristicofmorevulnerable
neighbourhoods,includingrentedtenureandlowincomeaswellastheneedforcollectiveaction
demandedbythenatureofthehousingstock(forexampletoprovidefloodresistancetoterraced
housing).Thisdifferentialtakeupisanimportantdriverinsystemicflooddisadvantage,particularly
inareaswhereconventionalflooddefenceschemesmaynotbejustified.Thecasestudies
undertakeninsupportoftheanalysispresentedherehighlightfourissuesthatwillneedtobe
addressedtoimproveaccesstograntsforpropertylevelimprovementsby:

Streamliningaccesstosubsidiesandgrantsforthemostvulnerable;
Removing/reducingtheneedforthemostvulnerabletoprovidesupplementaryfunding;
Raisingawarenessofboththefloodrisksfacedandtheavailabilityofgrantsandreputable
contractorsandproductsthroughbothpassiveinformationprovisionandtheuseof
intermediariestosupportspecificapplicantsandtargetvulnerablecommunitiesandsupportthe
ongoingmaintenance(e.g.drawingupontheNationalFloodForum,localresiliencefora,flood
actiongroupsandotherlocalroutes).
Jointworkingbetweentheinsurancesector,governmentandcommunitygroupstooffergrants
andsubsidiesforprotectionlevelmeasuresforthemostvulnerablethroughanongoingprocess
(ratherthaninreactiontofloodevents).

5.6 Improveaccesstoaffordableinsurance

#6Improveaccesstoappropriateinsuranceforthemostvulnerablebydevelopinganinsurance
mechanismthatbridgesthegapintakeupbetweenthemoreandlessvulnerable.

Whenincomeandinsurancepenetration(afunctionoftenureandincome)areconsidered,theREP
associatedwithfloodingissignificantlyhigherinfloodvulnerableneighbourhoodsthanelsewhere.
Thisprimarilyreflectsthelowerlevelsofincomeandtheassociatedlowerlevelsofinsurancetake
upandhighlightstheroleinsuranceplaysinsystemicallydisadvantagingthemostvulnerable.The
developmentoftheFloodRereinsuranceschemeunderlinestheinsuranceindustryscommitment
toprovidingaffordableinsuranceforallathighestrisk(withpremiumsdifferentiatedbycounciltax
bandasacrudeproxyforincome).Innovativecollectiveinstrumentsarealsousedbysome
insurerstoenableaccessbyvulnerablegroups(includinginsurancewithrentalschemes,although
floodinsurancemaynotbeapriorityinthesocialhousingsectorasitcompeteswithotherfinancial
pressuresandrequirementstoavoidrentincreases).

Despitetheseinitiatives,insurancetakeupamongstthoseonlowerincomesandinrented
accommodationismuchlowerthanelsewhere;adisparitythatislikelytoincreasewhenactuarial
(fullyriskreflectivemarket)pricingisintroducedin2039(whentheFloodReschemeends).Itisalso
65

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

thecasethatFloodReexcludespropertiesbuiltafter2009;thisismaterialgiventheanalysis
presentedearliersuggeststhatthosedevelopments(builtbetween200814)inthemostvulnerable
neighbourhoodsexperienceasignificantincreaseinfloodfrequencyinthefuture(moresothanless
vulnerableneighbourhoods).

Addressingthecomplexissuesthatexistinprovidingeffectiveinsuranceinvulnerable
neighbourhoods(includingthoseassociatedwithaffordability,excesses,capability,awareness,and
tenure)implythesolutiondoesnotliewithfloodpolicyaloneandagreatercoherencebetween
widerhousingandwelfarepolicytogetherwithfloodpolicywillberequired.

5.7 Improvespatialplanninganddevelopmentcontrolprocesses

#7Betterreflectthedifferentialnatureofthelongtermfloodrisksfacedinvulnerable
neighbourhoodswithinnationalplanningpolicyandlocalguidance.

Analysispresentedheresuggeststhatrecentdevelopmentsinvulnerableneighbourhoodsare
projectedtoexperienceagreaterincreaseinriskthanthoseconstructedelsewhere.Thissuggests
that:

Currentplanningprocessesandtheassociatedcontrolofdevelopmentinfloodproneareasdo
notadequatelyaccountforfutureclimatechange((TCPA,2017)).
Opportunitiesforembeddingbluegreenresponsesthatreducefloodrisk,anddelivermultiple
benefitsopportunities,maybemissed(TCPA,2017)althoughtheanalysispresentedhere
assumesallnewdevelopmentsincorporateappropriatesurfacewatermanagement.
Thereisaneedtodeliverfloodresilienthomesthroughappropriatelyenforcedbuilding
regulations.
Thevulnerabilityofthosewhoarelikelytoliveinthehomesprovidedmaynotbebeing
adequatelyconsidered.Forexample,althoughconsiderationisgiventosafeaccessandegress,
itisunclearifthedifferentialimpactsoffloodingonthemostvulnerableareinfluentialinthe
planningchoices,andtheconstructiondetailingofthehomesbuilt.

TakingtheopportunitypresentedbytheHousingWhitePaper(DCLG,2017)toaddresstheseissues
throughacombinationofnationalplanningpolicyandspatialplanningguidanceforlocalplanners
willbeimportanttoavoidexacerbatingflooddisadvantagethroughinappropriatenew
development.

5.8 Maintainasociallyjustprocess

#8Ensurefloodeventsdonotdivertsignificantfundsinappropriatelyfrommanagingriskinmore
vulnerableareasanddonotforeclosemoresustainablelongertermoptions.

Itiswellknownthatfunding,inpartatleast,respondstopublicoutrage(Sandman,1987).Thiscan
leadtothosewiththeloudestvoicebeingprioritisedoverthosewiththegreatestneed.Asocially
justapproachcertainlyincludesrespondingtoimmediateemergencyneedsafteramajorflood
event,butthismustnotundermineexistinginvestmentprocessesordivertFRMfundsthathave
beencommittedelsewhere.
66

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Suchinvestmentmustalsoavoidforeclosingfuturechoices.Itisincreasinglyrecognisedthatsome
floodplaincommunities,particularlyatthecoast,cannotbesustainedinthelongtermdueto
climatechange.Thisisconfirmedbyanalysisoffuturefloodriskunderextreme,butplausible,sea
levelriseassumptionsthathighlightssignificantlengthsofexistingcoastaldefencesthatwillbecome
increasinguntenabletomaintain(Sayersetal.,2015)andthevariousShorelineManagementPlans
thatpromoteamanagedrealignmentpolicyoption(ASC,2012).

AcrosstheUK,legislationandpolicypromoteaproactiveratherthanreactiveapproachtoFRM(as
discussedinAppendixE).Understandinghowtorespondtoemergencieswhilsttransitioning
towardsamoresustainableapproach(thatmayrequireatransformativeapproachinthefaceof
climatechange)isasignificantchallenge.Todosoinasociallyjustwaywillrequireacombinationof
communityinvolvementandapolicyimperativetoestablishobjectiveswithcommunitiesandagree
howthesecanbeachievedtosupportasustainablefuture(providingtheproceduraljusticeto
ensurethatthoseinvolvedhavetheirvoiceheard).

67

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

6.0 GLOSSARY,ACROYNMSANDREFERENCES

6.1 Glossary

Thefollowingdefinitionsaredrawnfromavarietyofsourcesandareinterpretedinthecontextof
thisreport.TheprimarysourcesusedareSayersetal.(2015),Lindleyetal.(2011)andTwiggerRoss
etal.(2014).

Adaptation Theongoingadjustmentinnatural,engineeredorhumansystemsinresponseto
actualorexpectedchangesinclimateorotherdriversofrisk.Adaptationmaybe
eitherautonomous(andachievedthroughselfmotivatedchange)orplanned(and
achievedthroughpurposefuladaptationplanning).
Adaptivecapacity Thegeneralabilityofinstitutions,managementsystems,infrastructureand
individualstoadjust(orbeadjusted)tofuturechangetotakeadvantageof
opportunitiesthatariseandappropriatelymanageadditionalrisksthatarepresent
withminimumuseofresources(social,financialandecological).
Annualexceedance Annualexceedanceprobability(AEP)describestheprobabilityofanevent(e.g.a
probability floodofagivenmagnitude)occurringinanygivenyear.AEPisapproximately
equivalenttotheinverseofreturnperiod(inyears).Forexample,3.3%AEPrefers
toareturnperiodof1in30years.Thisisnottrueforveryfrequentevents(see
Sayersetal.,2015).
Capacity Thecombinationofallthestrengths,attributesandresourcesavailablewithina
community,societyororganisationthatcanbeusedtoachieveagreedgoals.
ClimateProjection Awelldefinedplausibleclimatefuture.Twoclimatechangeprojectionsare
consideredhere,namelya+2oCand+4oCchangeinGlobalMeanTemperature
(GMT)bythe2080s.
Coastalflooding Floodingfromtheseaarisingwhentidalsurge,waveactionoracombinationofboth
overtoporoverflowtheshorelineboundary.
Datazones Localareascontainingaround5001,000residentswithsimilarsocialcharacteristics.
Datazones(DZ)areusedbytheScottishGovernmentforreportingsocialstatistics,
forexamplefromthecensus.
Disadvantage GeographicFloodDisadvantage(GFD)providesanabsoluteinterpretationof
(geographic) disadvantage(asproposedbyLindleyetal.,2011)andenablesthoselocations
wherehighlevelsofsocialvulnerabilitycombinewithalargenumberofpeople
exposedtofloodingtobeidentified.GFDthereforeidentifiesareasthatarehot
spotsofsocialfloodrisk.
Disadvantage SystemicFloodDisadvantage(SFD)providesarelativeinterpretationof
(systemic) disadvantageandenablesbiasinthefloodriskfacedbythemostvulnerablewhen
comparedtotheaveragetobeexplored.Assuch,SFDmeasuresthedegreeto
whichFRMpolicy(oritsimplementationinpractice)canbeconsideredtodelivera
fairandsociallyjustoutcome.
Endogenouschange Purposefuladaptationtomanagetheprobabilityofflooding,theexposuretofloods
and/orthevulnerabilityofthoseexposed.
Exogenouschange ChangesthatcannotbesignificantlyinfluencedbyFRMpolicy.Examplesinclude
climatechangeandpopulationgrowth.
Exposure Exposureisusedheretorefertothenumberofpeoplethatmaybefloodedduringa
givenfloodeventandtherebysubjecttopotentiallossofwellbeing.
Flood Thetemporarycoveringbywateroflandnotnormallycoveredbywater.Coastal,
fluvialandsurfacewaterfloodsourcesareconsideredhere.Note:Groundwater
floodingisnotconsidered.
Floodplain Theareaoflandwherewaterflowsintimeofflood(arisingfromanysourceof
flooding,coastal,fluvialorsurfacewater)orwouldflowbutforthepresenceof
structuresandotherfloodcontrols.Thelimitsoffloodplainarenotionallyinfinite,
andarethereforedefinedbythemaximumfloodextentresultingfromagiven
68

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

returnperiodstorm.Here,forpracticalreasons,thefloodplainisdefinedbythe
1:1000yearreturnperiodintheabsenceofanydefencesthatmayexist.
Floodpronearea Anareaoflandthatcouldbefloodedbyanysourceofflooding(usedhere
interchangeablewithfloodplain).
Floodrisk Acombinationoftheprobabilityofafloodandtheassociatedharmful
consequences.
Fluvialflooding Floodingfromawatercoursewhenwaterfromanestablishedriverordrainage
channelspillsontothefloodplain.
Groundwater Floodingfromthegroundcausedbyhighgroundwaterlevelsinaquifers.Note:
flooding Groundwaterfloodingisnotconsidered.
Household Onepersonlivingalone,oragroupofpeople(notnecessarilyrelated)livingatthe
sameaddresswhosharecookingfacilitiesandsharealivingroomorsittingroomor
diningarea.Thisincludesshelteredaccommodationunitsinanestablishment
where50percentormorehavetheirownkitchens(irrespectiveofwhetherthere
areothercommunalfacilities)andallpeoplelivingincaravansonanytypeofsite
thatistheirusualresidence(thiswillincludeanyonewhohasnootherusual
residenceelsewhereintheUK).(Census,2011).
IndexofMultiple TheofficialmeasureofrelativedeprivationforneighbourhoodsinEngland.
Deprivations(IMD)
LowerSuperOutput Compactareaswitharound1,0003,000residentswithsimilarsocialcharacteristics.
Area LSOAsareusedinEnglandandWalesforreportingsocialstatistics,forexamplethe
census11.
Neighbourhood DefinedhereasaspatialunitcoveringLowerSuperOutputAreas(LSOAs)inEngland
andWales,DataZone(DZs)inScotlandandSuperOutputAreas(SOAs)inNorthern
Ireland.
Neighbourhood Definedherebasedonaseriesofindicatorsthatprovideinsightintotheinherent
FloodVulnerability socialcharacteristicsofaneighbourhoodthatmakeacommunitymoreorless
Index(NFVI) vulnerabletoalossofwellbeingshouldafloodoccur.
Receptor Theentitythatmaybeharmedbyaflood.Forexample,intheeventofheavy
rainfall(thesource),floodwatermaypropagateacrossthefloodplain(thepathway)
andinundatehousing/householders(thereceptor)thatmaysuffermaterialdamage
(theharmorconsequence).
RelativeEconomic Anewmetricproposedherethatreflectstheratiooftheuninsuredlosstoincome.
Pain TheREPiscalculatedas(1insurancepenetration)xExpectedAnnualDamages
(directresidential)perhouseholdwithinthefloodplain/AverageIncomeper
householdwithintheneighbourhood.
Returnperiod Astatisticalmeasuredenotingtheaveragerecurrenceintervalintimethatanevent
(e.g.aninriverwaterlevel)ofagivenmagnitudeequalledorexceeded(when
consideredoveranextendedperiod).Whileitistruethata1in10yeareventwill,
onaverage,beexceededoncewithinany10yearperiod,thisdoesnotimplythatit
willnotreoccurfortenyears.Thechanceofencounteringorexceedingsuchan
eventinthenext10yearsisapproximately65%thesocalledencounterprobability
(seeforexampleSayers,2015).
Residentialproperty AsdefinedbythenationalpropertydatasetsfromEngland,Wales,Scotlandand
NorthernIrelandandusedheretoestablishthepresenceofasinglehousehold.

11 http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guidemethod/geography/beginnersguide/census/superoutputareassoas/index.html

AccessedOct2016

69

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Residual(flood)risk TheriskthatremainsafteraccountingfortheperformanceofallFRMactions(i.e.
measurestoreducethechanceoffloodingandthosetakentoreduceexposureor
vulnerability).
Resilience Theabilityofanindividual,community,cityornationtoresist,absorborrecover
fromashock(e.g.anextremeflood),and/orsuccessfullyadapttoadversityor
transforminresponsetochangingconditions(e.g.climatechange,economyturn
down)inatimelyandefficientmannertosustainfunctionsandlivelihoods.See
Chapter2forfurther discussion.
Risk Thecombinationofthechanceofanevent(e.g.aflood),withtheimpactthatthe
eventwouldcauseifitoccurred.Riskthereforehastwocomponentsthechance
(orprobability)ofaneventoccurringandtheimpact(orconsequence)associated
withthatevent.
SocialFloodRisk DefinedhereastheproductofNeighbourhoodFloodVulnerabilityIndex(defined
Index(SFRI) previously)weightedbyameasureofthefloodexposure.SeeChapter3forfurther
discussion.
SocialFloodRisk AstheSFRI,butnormalisedbypopulation.
Index(SFRI):
Individual
SuperOutputArea CompactareaswithsimilarsocialcharacteristicsusedinNorthernIrelandfor
(SOA) reportingsocialstatistics,forexamplethecensus.Thesecontainonaverage
approximately800householdsandapopulationof2,000.
Surfacewater Floodingdirectlyfromarainfalleventpriortothegeneratedrunoffreachingan
flooding establishedriverordrainagechannel(alsocalledpluvialflooding).
Susceptibility(toloss Adimensionofvulnerabilitywhichreflectsthecharacteristicsofanindividual
ofwellbeing) (namelyageandhealthstatus),whichincreasethelikelihoodthatafloodeventwill
haveanegativeimpactonwellbeing.
Vulnerability(social Incontextofthisstudy,theinherentcharacteristicsofindividualsandcommunities
flood)/social inwhichtheylivethatinfluencethepotentialtoexperiencelossofwellbeingwhen
vulnerability exposedtoafloodandoverwhichfloodmanagementpolicyhaslimitedorno
control(althoughotherpoliciesmayberelevante.g.housingorwelfarepolicies)
Zscore Astatisticalmeasurementofhowanindividualscorerelatestothemean(average
value)inagroupofscores.AZscoreof0meansthescoreisthesameasthemean
(averagevalue).AZscorecanbepositiveornegative,indicatingwhetheritisabove
orbelowthemeanandbyhowmanystandarddeviations.

70

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

6.2 Abbreviations

AEP AnnualExceedanceProbability
ASC AdaptationSubCommittee
BCR BenefitCostRatio
CA CalculationArea
CCA CensusCalculationArea
CCC CommitteeonClimateChange
CCRA ClimateChangeRiskAssessment
CDF ComparativeDisadvantageFactor
CLA CurrentLevelofAdaptation
DCLG DepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment
Defra DepartmentofFoodandRuralAffairs
DZ DataZone(censuspolygonusedinScotland)
EAD ExpectedAnnualDamages
EADi ExpectedAnnualDamages:Individual
EAP ExpectedAnnualnumberofPeopleflooded
EAPi ExpectedAnnualnumberofPeopleflooded:Individual
FDGiA FloodDefenceGrantinAid(England)
FRM FloodRiskManagement
FFE FutureFloodExplorer(theanalysismodelusedhere)
GMT GlobalMeanTemperature
GFD GeographicFloodDisadvantage
iBCR IncrementalBenefitCostRatio
IMD IndexofMultipleDeprivation
JRF JosephRowntreeFoundation
LEP LocalEnterprisePartnerships
LSOA LowerSuperOutputArea(censuspolygonusedinEnglandandWales)
LTIS LongTermInvestmentScenarios
MSOA MiddleLayerSuperOutputAreas
NFVI NeighbourhoodFloodVulnerabilityIndex
ONS OfficeofNationalStatistics
PEFf NumberofPeopleExposedtoFrequentFlooding(1:75yearsormorefrequent,onaverage)
RBD RiverBasinDistrict
REP RelativeEconomicPain
SEPA ScottishEnvironmentProtectionAgency
SFD SystemicFloodDisadvantage
SFRI SocialFloodRiskIndex
SOA SuperOutputArea(censuspolygonusedinNorthernIreland)
SoP StandardofProtection
SPL SayersandPartnersLLP
TCPA TownandCountryPlanningAssociation

71

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

6.3 References

ASC(2015).Progressinpreparingforclimatechange2015.ReporttoParliamentCommitteeon
ClimateChangeJune2015.ReportbytheAdaptationSubCommittee.https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp
content/uploads/2015/06/6.736_CCC_ASC_AdaptationProgressReport_2015_FINAL_WEB_250615_RFS.pdf

ASC(2013).Managingthelandinachangingclimate.AdaptationSubCommitteeprogressreport
2013(Chapter5).ReportbytheAdaptationSubCommittee.https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/managingthelandin
achangingclimate/

ASC(2012).ClimatechangeistheUKpreparingforfloodingandwaterscarcity?Reportby
theAdaptationSubCommitteeprogressreport2012.https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/climatechangeisthe
ukpreparingforfloodingandwaterscarcity3rdprogressreport2012/

Bouwer,L.M.,Bubeck,P.andAerts,J.C.,(2010).Changesinfuturefloodriskduetoclimateand
developmentinaDutchpolderarea.GlobalEnvironmentalChange,20(3),pp.463471.

Briguglio,L.,Cordina,G.,Farrugia,N.,Vella,S.(2008).EconomicVulnerabilityandResilience:
ConceptsandMeasurements.ResearchPaper2008/055.Helsinki:UNUWIDER.
https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/economicvulnerabilityandresilience

Burchell,KFaganWatsonB,KingM,WatsonT(2017).UrbanHeat:Developingtheroleof
communitygroupsinlocalclimateresilience.PublishedbyPolicyStudiesInstitute.Aproject
supportedbytheJosephRowntreeFoundation.

CabinetOffice(2011).StrategicNationalFrameworkonCommunityResilience.PublishedbyHMSO,
London.www.cabinetofce.gov.uk/resourcelibrary/communityresilienceresourcesandtools

Cutter,S.L.,Burton,C.G.andEmrich,C.T.(2010).DisasterResilienceIndicatorsforBenchmarking
BaselineConditions.JournalofHomelandSecurityandEmergencyManagement,7(1):122.

CommitteeonClimateChange(2016).UKClimateChangeRiskAssessment2017SynthesisReport.
PublishedbytheCommitteeonClimateChange(CCC).https://www.theccc.org.uk/wpcontent/uploads/2016/07/UKCCRA
2017SynthesisReportCommitteeonClimateChange.pdf

DCLG(2017).Fixingourbrokenhousingmarket.PresentedtoParliamentFeb2017.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/590464/Fixing_our_broken_housing_market__print_ready_version.pd

Defra(2015).FloodResilienceCommunityPathfinder.Evaluation.FinalEvaluationReport.October
2015.PublishedbyDefra.

Defra(2014a).Reducingtherisksoffloodingandcoastalerosion:Aninvestmentplan.December
2014.https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/389789/fcerminvestmentplan201412.pdfAccessed:24/01/17.

Defra(2014b).PostInstallationEffectivenessofPropertyLevelFloodProtection.Finalreport.
FD2668December2014.http://evidence.environment
agency.gov.uk/FCERM/Libraries/FCERM_Project_Documents/fd2668_final_report.sflb.ashxAccessed:11May2015.

72

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Defra(2012).FloodResilienceCommunityPathfinderProspectus
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/69621/pb13841frcoprospectus20121206.pdfDefra(2012b)UKClimate
ChangeRiskAssessmentEvidenceReport.http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/government/riskassessment/

Defra(2011).FloodandCoastalResiliencePartnershipFundingAnIntroductoryGuide.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/182524/floodcoastalresilienceintroguide.pdf

Defra(2005).MakingSpaceforWater:TakingForwardaNewGovernmentStrategyforFloodand
CoastalErosion.FirstGovernmentResponsetotheAutumn2004MakingSpaceforWater
ConsultationExercise.London:DepartmentoftheEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairs.

Defra(2004).Theadvantagesanddisadvantagesofadoptingconsistentstandardsfor
communities.PublishedbyDefra,London.AHRWallingfordReportforDefra,reportno.
FD2009_2111_TRP.http://sciencesearch.defra.gov.uk/Document.aspx?Document=FD2009_2111_TRP.pdfAccessed11/01/17.

Dovers,S.R.andHandmer,J.W.(1992).Uncertainty,sustainabilityandchange.Global
EnvironmentalChange,2(4):262276.

England,K.andKnox,K.(2015).Targetingfloodinvestmentandpolicytominimiseflood
disadvantage.AreportpublishedbytheJosephRowntreeFoundation.

ENSURE(2009).WP2IntegrationandconnectionofvulnerabilitiesDeliverable2.2:Integrationof
differentvulnerabilitiesvs.NaturalandNatechHazards.7thFrameworkProgramme.EC.

EnvironmentAgency(2016).RiverThamesScheme:reducingfloodriskfromDatchetto
Teddington.https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/riverthamesschemereducingfloodriskfromdatchettoteddington/riverthames
schemereducingfloodriskfromdatchettoteddingtonAccessed:06/01/16

EnvironmentAgency(2014a).FloodandcoastalerosionriskmanagementLongterminvestment
scenarios(LTIS)2014.PublishedbytheEnvironmentAgency.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/381939/FCRM_Long_term_investment_scenarios.pdf[Accessed:10May
2015

EnvironmentAgency(2014b).Workingwithnaturalprocessestoreducefloodrisk:researchand
developmentframework.EnvironmentAgency.doi:9781849113311,SC130004:R2

EnvironmentAgency(2014c).Appendix(b)Section19:December2013EastCoastSurge.August
2014.https://lincolnshire.moderngov.co.uk/documents/s7054/Tidal%20Surge%20Event%20%20Coastal%20Surge%20%20Appendix%20A3.pdf
Accessed:24/01/17.

EnvironmentAgency(2010a).FloodandCoastalErosionRiskManagement:Appraisalguidance.
PublishedbytheEnvironmentAgency.

EnvironmentAgency(2010b).Workingwithnaturalprocessestoreducefloodrisk:Aresearchand
developmentframework.PublishedbytheEnvironmentAgency.

EnvironmentAgency(2009).Moretargetedfloodwarnings:AReview.ImprovingInstitutionaland
SocialResponsestoFlooding.https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/290967/scho0509bqbve
e.pdfAccessed:24/01/17.

73

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Evans,E.P.,Ashley,R.,Hall,J.,PenningRowsell,E.C.,Sayers,P.,Thorne,C.andWatkinson,A.
(2004a).Foresight:futureflooding(Vol1).Futurerisksandtheirdrivers.London,OfficeofScience
andTechnology.

Evans,E.P.,Ashley,R.,Hall,J.,PenningRowsell,E.C.,Saul,A.,Sayers,P.,Thorne,C.andWatkinson,
A.(2004b).Foresight:futureflooding(Vol2).Managingfuturerisks.London,OfficeofScienceand
Technology.

Fazey,I.,Carmen,E.,Williams,J.,Hodgson,A.,Fraser,J.,Cox,L.,Scott,D.,Tabor,P.,Robeson,D.,
Searle,B.,Kenter,J.,Murray,B.,Lyon,C.(2016).ScottishBordersClimateResilientCommunities
Project:Part1:Findingsoncommunityresiliencetoclimatechangeandclimatedisadvantage.
PublishedbytheCentreforClimateChangeandHumanResilience,UniversityofDundee.December
2016.

Fritze,J.G.,Blashki,G.A.,Burke,S.andWiseman,J.(2008).Hope,despairandtransformation:
Climatechangeandthepromotionofmentalhealthandwellbeing.Internationaljournalofmental
healthsystems,2(1),p.13.

Guthrie,P.andKonaris,T.(2012).InfrastructureResilience.ReportproducedfortheGovernment
OfficeofScience,ForesightprojectReducingRisksofFutureDisasters:PrioritiesforDecisionMakers
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ukinfrastructureandresilience

Hall,J.W.,Henriques,J.J.,Hickford,A.J.andNicholls,R.J.(2013).Systemsofsystemsanalysis
ofnationalinfrastructure.PublishedbytheInstitutionofCivilEngineers,JournalEngineering
Sustainability,166(5):249257.

Harner,J.,Warner,K.,Pierce,J.andHuber,T.(2002).UrbanEnvironmentalJusticeIndices.
ProfessionalGeographer,543,318331.

Hartford,DandBaecher,G.(2004).RiskandUncertaintyinDamSafety.FrontCover.Thomas
Telford,2004Technology&Engineering391pages.

HMGovernment(2016).NationalFloodResilienceReview.PublishedbyHMGovernment.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/551137/nationalfloodresiliencereview.pdfAccessedMarch2017

HMTreasury(2003).TheGreenBook:AppraisalandEvaluationinCentralGovernment.Published
byHMSO,London.

Johnson,C.,PenningRowsell,E.C.andParker,D.J.(2007).Naturalandimposedinjustices:the
challengesinimplementingfairfloodriskmanagementpolicyinEngland.GeographicalJournal,
173(4),374390.

Kazmierczak,A.,Cavan,G.,Connelly,A.andLindley,S.(2015).MappingFloodDisadvantagein
Scotland2015.TheScottishGovernment.

Klijn,F.,Mens,M.J.andAsselman,N.E.(2015).Floodriskmanagementforanuncertainfuture:
economicefficiencyandsystemrobustnessperspectivescomparedfortheMeuseRiver
(Netherlands).MitigationandAdaptationStrategiesforGlobalChange,20(6),pp.10111026.
74

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Klijn,F.,vanBuuren,M.andvanRooij,S.A.(2004).Floodriskmanagementstrategiesforan
uncertainfuture:livingwithRhineriverfloodsintheNetherlands?AMBIO:AJournalofthe
HumanEnvironment,33(3),pp.141147.

Kwakkel,J.H.andPruyt,E.(2013).ExploratoryModelingandAnalysis,anapproachformodel
basedforesightunderdeepuncertainty.TechnologicalForecastingandSocialChange,80(3),
pp.419431.

Liao,K.(2012).Atheoryonurbanresiliencetofloodsabasisforalternativeplanningpractices.
EcologyandSociety,17(4):48.

Lindley,S.,ONeill,J.,Kandeh,J.,Lawson,N.,Christian,R.andONeill,M.(2011).Climatechange,
justiceandvulnerability.AreportpublishedbyJosephRowntreeFoundation,York.

NadaRajah,R.(2010).StoriesofEnvironmentalJustice.Banbury,ArtistsProjectEarth.
http://environmentaljustice.com/wpcontent/uploads/EJR.pdfAccessed11/01/17.

NationalFloodForum(2012).EvaluationoftheDefraPropertylevelFloodProtectionScheme.JBA
Consulting.March2012.[Availableat:http://nationalfloodforum.org.uk/wpcontent/uploads/EvaluationoftheDefraPLFloodprotection
Scheme25918.pdf]

NationalFloodForum(2016).NationalFloodForumBulletin:September2016.Availableat:
http://www.birminghamprepared.gov.uk/wpcontent/uploads/2016/09/Sept2016_FINAL.pdf

Newman,R.,Ashley,R.,MolyneuxHodgson,S.,andCashman,A.(2011).Managingwaterasa
sociotechnicalsystem:theshiftfromexpertstoalliances.EngineeringSustainability:
164(ES1).

NIHCE(2009).Measuringeffectivenessandcosteffectiveness:TheQALY(quality-adjusted life
years).NHSNationalInstituteforHealthandClinicalExcellence.

NISRA(2015).Urbanruralclassification.NorthernIrelandStatisticsandResearchAgency.
https://www.nisra.gov.uk/urbanruralclassification

ONS(OfficeforNationalStatistics)(2011).2011censusdata.OfficeofNationalStatistics

PenningRowsell,E.C.(2016).IsnationalAADreallyonly93mto116m,ratherthan1.3bn?
Circulation,131:1415

PenningRowsell,E.C.(2015).ArealisticassessmentoffluvialandcoastalfloodriskinEnglandand
Wales.TransactionsoftheInstituteofBritishGeographers40(1):4461

PenningRowsell,E.C.(2014).Whatdothe2013/14floodstellusaboutoverallfloodriskin
EnglandandWales?Circulation121:35

PenningRowsell,E.C.,Priest,S.,Parker,D.J.,Morris,J.,Tunstall,S.,Viavattene,CandOwen,D.
(2013).Floodandcoastalerosionriskmanagement:Amanualforeconomicappraisal.Routledge,
London.

75

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

Pike,A.,MacKinnon,D.,Coombes,M.,Champion,T.,Bradley,D.,Cumbers,A.,Robson,L.and
Wymer,C.(2016).Unevengrowth:tacklingcitydecline.AreportpublishedbytheJosephRowntree
Foundation,York.

Rawls,J.(1971).ATheoryofJustice.HarvardUniversityPress.RevisededitionISBN
9780674017726.

Rinaldi,S.M.,Peerenboom,J.P.andKelly,T.K.(2001).Criticalinfrastructureindependencies
Identifying,understandingandanalysing.PublishedinIEEEControlSystemsMagazine.

Sandman,P.(1987).RiskCommunication:FacingPublicOutrage.PublishedintheU.S.
EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyJournal,Nov1987:2122.

Sayers,P.B(2017).Strategicfloodriskmanagementanditsabilitytosupportsocialjustice,
safeguardecosystemsandpromoteresilience.PublishedbytheOxfordUniversityPress(inpress).

Sayers,P.B.(2015).Communicatingthechanceofaflood:Theuseandabuseofprobability,
frequencyandreturnperiod.FORUMProjectpublication,UniversityofOxford.
http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/research/water/forum/

Sayers,P.B.,Horritt,M.S.,PenningRowsell,E.,andMckenzie,A.(2015).ClimateChangeRisk
Assessment2017:ProjectionsoffuturefloodriskintheUK.Pages125.SayersandPartnersLLP
reportfortheCommitteeonClimateChange.

Sayers,P.B.,Horritt,M.,PenningRowsell,E.,McKenzie,A.andThompson,D.(2016).Theanalysis
offuturefloodriskintheUKusingtheFutureFloodExplorer(FFE).ProceedingsofFloodrisk2016.
E3SWebConf.,7(2016)21005DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160721005

Sayers,P.B.,Galloway,G.,PenningRowsell,E.,Shen,F.,Wen,K.,Chen,Y.,LeQuesne,T.(2014).
Strategicfloodmanagement:tengoldenrulestoguideasoundapproach.InternationalJournal
ofRiverBasinManagement,DOI:10.1080/15715124.2014.902378.

Sayers,P.B.,Galloway,G.andHall,J.(2012).Robustdecisionmakingunderuncertainty
Towardsadaptiveandresilientfloodriskmanagementinfrastructure.London:ThomasTelford

Sayers,P.B.,Hall,J.W.,Meadowcroft,I.C.(2002).Towardsriskbasedfloodhazard
managementintheUK.CivilEngineering2002,150(5),3642.ScottishGovernment(2016).
FloodRiskManagementPlanforScotland.http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0049/00492141.pdfAccessed:06/01/17

ScottishGovernment(2011).Deliveringsustainablefloodriskmanagement.
http://www.gov.scot/Resource/Doc/351427/0117868.pdf

ScottishGovernment(2010).Urbanruralclassification20092010.
http://www.gov.scot/resource/doc/933/0103167.pdf

Street,R.,DiMauro,M.,Humphrey,K.,Johns,D.,Boyd,E.,CrawfordBrown,D.,Evans,J.,Kitchen,J.,
Hunt,A.,Knox,K.,Low,R.,McCall,R.,Watkiss,P.,andWilby,R.(2016).UKClimateChangeRisk

76

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

AssessmentEvidenceReport:Chapter8,CrosscuttingIssues.ReportpreparedfortheAdaptation
SubCommitteeoftheCommitteeonClimateChange,London.

Tapsell,S.M.,PenningRowsell,E.C.,Tunstall,S.M.andWilson,T.L.(2002)Vulnerabilityto
flooding:healthandsocialdimensions,Floodriskinachangingclimate.PapersofaDiscussion
MeetingorganizedandeditedbyD.Cox,J.Hunt,P.Mason,H.WheaterandP.Wolf.15July2002,
Vol360,No.1796,PhilosophicalTransactionsofTheRoyalSociety,Mathematical,Physicaland
EngineeringSciencespp.15111525ISSN:1364503X

TCPA(2017).PlanningfortheClimateChallenge?UnderstandingthePerformanceofEnglishLocal
Plans.PreparedbyTownandCountryPlanningAssociationfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation.

TCPA(2012).Howgoodcoulditbe?Aguidetobuildingbetterplaces.PublishedbyTownand
CountryPlanningAssociation.https://www.tcpa.org.uk/guidancefordeliveringnewgardencities

Thrush,D.,Burningham,K.andFielding,J.(2005).FloodWarningforVulnerableGroups:
Measuring&MappingVulnerability.Defra/EnvironmentAgency,Floodandcoastalerosionrisk
managementR&DProgramme.

TwiggerRoss,C.,Kashefi,E.,Weldon,S.,Brooks,K.,Deeming,H.,Forrest,S.,Fielding,J.,Gomersall,
A.,Harries,T.,McCarthy,S.,Orr,P.,Parker,D.,andTapsell,S(2014).FloodResilienceCommunity
PathfinderEvaluation:RapidEvidenceAssessment.London:Defra

vanAlphen,J.(2014).TheDeltaProgrammeandupdatedfloodriskmanagementpoliciesinthe
Netherlands.Proceedingofthe6thInternationalconferenceonfloodmanagement.SaoPaulo,
Brazil..http://www.abrh.org.br/icfm6/proceedings/papers/PAP014368.pdfAccessed27/09/16

Waite,T.D.,Chaintarli,K.,Beck,C.,Bone,A.,Amlt,R.,Kovats,S.,Reacher,M.,Armstrong,B.,
Leonardi,G.,Rubin,J.,andOliver,I.(2017).TheEnglishnationalcohortstudyoffloodingand
health:crosssectionalanalysisofmentalhealthoutcomesatyearone.DOI:10.1186/s12889016
40002

Watkiss,P.,Cimato,F.,Hunt,A.,Morley,B.(2016).ClimateChangeImpactsontheFutureCostof
Living.PublishedbyPaulWatkissAssociateswithsupportfromtheJosephRowntreeFoundation.

WalesAuditOffice(2016).ThedevelopmentofNaturalResourcesWales.
https://www.wao.gov.uk/system/files/publications/Development_of_Natural_Resources_Wales_English_2016.pdfAccessed:06/01/17.

Walker,B.;Holling,C.S.;Carpenter,S.R.;Kinzig,A.(2004).Resilience,adaptabilityand
transformabilityinsocialecologicalsystems.EcologyandSociety.9(2):5.

WelshGovernment(2004).TechnicalAdviceNote(TAN)15:DevelopmentandFloodRisk.
PublishedbytheWelshGovernment.

77

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

7.0 APPENDICES

Thefollowingappendices(providedseparately)accompanythisreport:

APPENDIXA:Datasourcesandresolutionoftheassociatedanalysis

APPENDIXB:Neighbourhoodfloodvulnerabilityindex

APPENDIXC:Exogenouschange:Climateandpopulationchange

APPENDIXD:Endogenouschange:Adaptationmeasures

APPENDIXE:ConsultationsPolicyengagementandlocalcasestudies

78

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP
Floodvulnerability,riskanddisadvantage:AreportbySayersandPartnersfortheJosephRowntreeFoundation:June2017

NOTICE

ThisreporthasbeenpreparedunderanAgreementmadeon11April2016betweentheJoseph
RowntreeFoundation(JRF)andSayersandPartnersLLP.

NeitherSayersandPartners,noranyotherpersonactingontheirbehalf(a)makesanywarranty,
expressorimplied,orassumesanylegalresponsibilityfortheaccuracyofanyinformationcontained
inthisreportorforthecompletenessorusefulnessofanyapparatus,productorprocessdisclosedin
thereport,(b)acceptsanyliabilityfortheuseof,ordamagesresultingfromtheuseofthisreportor
anyapparatus,productorprocessdisclosedinthisreportor(c)representsthattheuseofsuch
apparatus,productorprocesswouldnotinfringeupontherightsofthirdparties.

Anyreferenceinthisreporttoanyspecificcommercialproduct,processorservicebytradename,
trademark,manufacturerorotherwisedoesnotnecessarilyconstituteorimplyitsendorsementor
recommendation.

79

AreportbySayersandPartnersLLP