Probabilistic Design

Course 2016 Day 3

Vana Tsimopoulou
Delft, 25-02-2016
1

Vermelding onderdeel organisatie

Lecture overview

1. Part II: Analysis of domino effects

2. Part III: Reliability of systems

25-02-2016
2
 Part II

Analysis of domino effects

25-02-2016
3
Types of analyses

1. Fault tree analysis

A Fault Tree describes how an Undesired Top Event
(UTE) can occur
2. Event tree analysis
An Event Tree describes how an Undesired Starting
Event (USE) further develops
3. Flow diagram
Variant of the event tree
4. Bow-tie analysis
Combination of fault tree and event tree

25-02-2016
4
Fault tree analysis
Example

Undesired top event: inundation of the polder

25-02-2016
5
Fault tree analysis
Example

Continuation of the fault tree

25-02-2016
6
Fault tree analysis
Example
Continuation of the fault tree

25-02-2016
7
 Fault tree analysis
Symbols in a fault tree
Gates: describing how events are connected

25-02-2016
8
Fault tree analysis
Symbols in a fault tree
Events

25-02-2016
9
Fault tree analysis
Meaning of the gates

OR-gate
The output (failure) occurs if one or more
of the inputs to the gate occur

AND-gate
The output (failure) occurs if all inputs to
the gate occur simultaneously

25-02-2016
10
Fault tree analysis
Meaning of the gates

Voting gate
The occurrence of the output (failure)
requires a minimum number of inputs to
occur simultaneously. The number is
indicated on the gate.

Example
Imagine a power plant with a system of 3 generators. In order to
supply enough power, at least 2 generators are needed.
The system fails if at least two out of the 3 generators fail.
25-02-2016
11
Fault tree analysis
Meaning of the gates

Inhibit gate
It replaces the AND-gate when one of the inputs is a
conditional event.

25-02-2016
12
Fault tree analysis
Meaning of the gates

Priority AND-gate

The output event occurs only when the input events take
place consecutively from left to right.

25-02-2016
13
 Fault tree analysis
Meaning of the gates

Exclusive OR-gate
The output event occurs if no more than one of the input events
occurs. This is possible when the input events are mutually
exclusive.

25-02-2016
14
Fault tree analysis
Meaning of the events

Basic event

Initial event, situated at the bottom of the fault tree

No further development required

Not developed event

Initial event, situated at the bottom of the fault tree
Although further development is possible, no further
analysis has been carried out
Its probability is usually neglected
25-02-2016
15
Fault tree analysis
Meaning of the events

Developed event
Consequential event
It occurs because of the occurrence of one or more
other events

Conditional event
It occurs conditionally; only if a certain underlying
event has already occurred
It only appears after an inhibit gate

25-02-2016
16
Fault tree analysis
Meaning of the events

House event
An external event, normally expected to occur
It represents boundary conditions or events that are
assumed to have already occurred

Limit state failure

The output occurs if the numerical conditions in

the box occur
Useful for the definition of failure spaces

25-02-2016
17
Fault tree analysis
Reference symbol

Used in large fault tree to split the tree in smaller

sections, and to refer to sections presented
elsewhre

25-02-2016
18
Fault tree analysis
Exercise

The system is considered to be functioning properly if at

least one path from input to output is functioning properly.
Draw an equivalent fault tree model

25-02-2016
19
Event tree analysis Top view
Example

Undesired
Starting Event:
high water at
the sea
Cross-section

25-02-2016
20
Event tree analysis
Example

I II III

25-02-2016
21
Flow diagram

25-02-2016
22
Alternative representations
Bow-tie
Combination of fault tree with an event tree

25-02-2016
23
Alternative representations
Bow-tie
Prevention of accidents / undesired events

25-02-2016
24
Advantages of domino analyses

Insight into system failure

Insight into the failure probability of systems failure

Tool of communication and management

Human failure and technical failure in one approach

Direct link to Quality Assurance

25-02-2016
25
 Part III

Reliability of systems

25-02-2016
26
What is a system

System is a group of elements / structural components

that are supposed to co-exist and function together;

The system as well as its components may fail.

25-02-2016
27
Types of systems

1. Series systems
Systems that fail if any of their components fails

2. Parallel systems
Systems that fail only when all of their
components fail

25-02-2016
28
Series systems
Examples

The polder

25-02-2016
29
Series systems
Examples

New Orleans, USA

25-02-2016
30
Series systems
Examples

Red River Delta

Vietnam

25-02-2016
31
Series systems
Event tree

25-02-2016
32
Series systems
Fault tree and failure probability

25-02-2016
33
Parallel systems
Examples

System with
multiple lines of
dykes

25-02-2016
34
 Parallel systems
Examples

Multi-layer safety

evacuation routes
to higher grounds
evacuation buildings HOSPITAL
residencies

tsunami walls
offices

offshore social infrastructure

breakwaters on higher grounds
MSL flood proofing

25-02-2016
35
Parallel systems
Examples

The Swiss cheese

25-02-2016
36
Parallel systems
Event tree

25-02-2016
37
Parallel systems
Fault tree & failure probability

25-02-2016
38
Parallel systems
Fault tree & failure probability
Summary table
Failure probabilities of series and parallel systems
Common cause failures

Failure of the system by a single common cause

earthquake
electricity supply
identical machines/parts
Common cause failures

Reasons for a common cause failure

Environment of the system
high water
earthquake
power supply
Organization and personnel
drivers error
service error
Non-ideal complex
single supplier
single age group
Common cause failures
Example
 Common cause failures
Example

Case 1: A,B,C and D independent :

PT.1=(PA+PB-PAPB)(PC+PD-PCPD)=2.2e-5

PL=PA+PB-PAPB PG= PC+PD-PCPD PT.1= PLPG

Common cause failures
Example
Case 2: B and D always fail together: PB=PD yields
PT.2=PB + PA.PC PA.PB.PC =1.01e-3
Failure of L Failure of G

Failure of T
 Common cause failures
Example

Case 3: B and D fail together in only 10% of all cases

PT.3=0.9PT.1 OR 0.1PT.2
PT.3 = 0.9PT.1 + 0.1PT.2 0.09PT.1PT.2
Exercise
New Orleans
Exercise
New Orleans
Exercise
New Orleans
Hurricane Katrina detail
The levee system was very weak
Exercise
New Orleans

2 causes of flooding:

high discharges from the Mississippi river

hurricanes can push water from the Gulf of Mexico

towards the city and cause flooding via the Lake
Pontchartrain or the Industrial Canal
Exercise
New Orleans
Exercise
New Orleans

Draw the fault tree and calculate the probability of

system failure
Exercise
New Orleans

It is considered to close off the canals. Two types of

solution are considered:
A: Installing gates reduces the probability of canal levee
failure to 10^(-3) per year
B: Closing of the canals completely reduces the probability
of flooding to zero

Calculate the new probability of system failure for both

types of measure
Exercise
New Orleans

The damage in case of flooding is US$ 1010; the

investment in measure A is 107 US$. The investment in
measure B is 3*107 US$.

Calculate the economically optimal measure (A, B or do

nothing) using the upper bound estimates of the failure
probability