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AEROSPACE GLOBALIZATION 2.

Presented by:
Dennis Ling
Director Asia Pacific
dennis.ling@icfi.com

5 Dec 2012
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AeroStrategy is Now Part of ICF SH&E, One of the Worlds
Largest and Most Experienced Aviation Consultancies

Airports Airlines Aerospace & MRO Asset Advisory Safety & Security

48 years in business (founded 1963)


80+ professional staff
Dedicated exclusively to aerospace and aviation
Recruited from the industry
Specialized, focused expertise and proprietary knowledge
Broad functional capabilities
More than 6,000 private sector and public sector assignments joined ICF in 2007

Backed by parent company ICF International ($841M revenue)


Global presence six major offices
joined ICF in 2011
Ann Arbor Boston New York London Singapore Beijing

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Agenda

Globalization The Next Wave


Engineering and R&D

Manufacturing

Customer Support and MRO

Implications

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GLOBALIZATION: THE NEXT WAVE

The Global Aerospace Industry Is Worth ~US$530 Billion

2011 Global Aerospace Industry


Space, Missiles,
Other
15%

Aircraft & Parts


38%
Avionics, aircraft
systems, defense
electronics
11%
~US$530B

Aircraft
maintenance,
training,
simulation
23%
Aircraft engines &
parts
13%

Source: ICF SH&E

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GLOBALIZATION: THE NEXT WAVE

Aerospace OEMs Have Traditionally Conducted Most


Value-Added Activities In Their Home Market

The Value Chain


Human Resources / Infrastructure
Engineering / R&D
Human Resources / Infrastructure
Procurement
Engineering / R&D
Procurement

Inbound Outbound Marketing Service


Operations Inbound Outbound Marketing Service
Logistics Logistics & Sales & MRO Logistics
Operations
Logistics & Sales & MRO

Most manufacturing Engineering and R&D Primary MRO and


in home market with was almost exclusively service parts
selected sourcing of in the home market distribution facilities
complete components in home market, with
from foreign suppliers some secondary
(e.g., components, international service
aeroengines) centers

Source: adapted from Porter (1985)

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GLOBALIZATION: THE NEXT WAVE

The New Paradigm is to Manage Value Chain Processes


Across Dispersed Geographies
New Paradigm:
Globally Dispersed Aerospace Value Chains
End of Cold War
Falling communications
& transport costs
New digital online
Human Resources / Infrastructure
Engineering / R&D
collaboration tools
Procurement

Inbound
Logistics
Operations
Outbound Marketing Service
Logistics & Sales & MRO
Lower trade barriers
Human Resources / Infrastructure

Emergence of global
Engineering / R&D
Procurement

Inbound Outbound Marketing Service

service firms
Operations
Logistics Logistics & Sales & MRO

Human Resources / Infrastructure

Talent shortage in home


Engineering / R&D
Procurement

Human Resources / Infrastructure


Engineering / R&D
Procurement
Inbound
Logistics
Operations
Outbound Marketing Service
Logistics & Sales & MRO
markets
Inbound
Logistics
Operations
Outbound Marketing Service
Logistics & Sales & MRO
Emerging economies
become major
customers

Globalization 1.0 Globalization 2.0


Foreign suppliers of materials, parts; Horizontal specialization OEMs and
Multi-national cooperation to achieve service suppliers tightly integrate functions
scale and critical mass (e.g. EADS/Airbus). across multiple locations on a global basis
Source: ICF SH&E

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GLOBALIZATION: THE NEXT WAVE

To Assess the Changing Nature of Globalization, ICF SH&E


Profiled 160+ Leading Aerospace OEMs And MROs

What major investments are


OEMs and MROs making in their
value chains?
What is the motivation for these
investments?
Which value chain investments
are most popular and why?
Which locations are receiving
the most investments?

Globalization database:
1,500+ investments for 160+
major aerospace firms

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GLOBALIZATION: THE NEXT WAVE

Most Investments Were Joint Ventures: Manufacturing


and MRO Were The Most Popular

Engineering Others
/ R&D 6% Training
19% 4%

Organic,
45% Joint
Venture,
55%
MRO /
Manufacture Distribution
32% 39%
TOTAL TOTAL
715 672

MRO/Distribution investments were the most popular (39%),


followed by Manufacturing (32%) and Engineering/R&D (19%)

Joint ventures accounted for 55% of value chain investments;


acquisitions are excluded from the analysis
* Includes joint ventures and organic investments for 160 OEMs and service providers; excludes acquisitions Source: AeroStrategy

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GLOBALIZATION: THE NEXT WAVE

And The Pace Of Globalization Accelerated Over The


Past Decade

200
No of investments

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

* Includes joint ventures and organic investments for over 150 OEMs and service providers; excludes acquisitions
Source: ICF SH&E

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Agenda

Globalization The Next Wave

Engineering and R&D


Manufacturing

Customer Support and MRO

Implications

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ENGINEERING R&D

Boeings Technical Research Center In Moscow Was a


Harbinger of Aerospace Engineering Globalization

The Boeing Technical Research Center


in Moscow opened in 1993 with 10
engineers

In 1998, Boeing created its Moscow-


based Engineering Design Center
(EDC); the first project was to redesign
the B777s center bin arches

Today, the EDC employs more than


1,500 engineers; projects include detail
design for the B787, tooling and
support, and third-party projects

The EDC also produced nearly one-third


of the structures drawings for the 747
Large Cargo Freighter

Source: Boeing

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ENGINEERING R&D

Engineering/R&D Investments Increased Considerably


Since 2005

25
No. of Investments

20

15

10

* Includes joint ventures and organic investments for over 150 OEMs and service providers; excludes acquisitions
Source: ICF SH&E

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ENGINEERING R&D

One Reason is Significant OEM Investments


in India, Which is Now a Major Engineering Hub
Major Aerospace Engineering Centers In
Bangalore, India
Established in 1994 with six
people for offshore software
Today has 5,500 employees with
complete engineering capabilities
with operations in India, China,
USA, and Czech Republic

Inaugurated in 2000; now has


735,000 square feet and 3,000
employees
Supports many GE businesses,
including aircraft engines

Opened in 2007
Part of the EADS Technology
Centre, which has plans to hire
2,000 employees

Source: Company websites

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ENGINEERING R&D

The Globalization of Engineering Also Creates New


Opportunities in Developed Economies

Aernnova launches aerospace


cluster in Ann Arbor
September 20, 2007
One key component of Spanish
aerospace firm Grupo Aernnova's
decision to open a $10 million
engineering operation in Pittsfield
Township was the lack of competitors
in the region.
Aernnova executives said that other
aerospace firms may follow them
to Ann Arbor.
Leverages one of the largest mechanical The company, also called Aernnova
engineering talent pools in the world Aerospace S.A., just announced plans
Home of several world-class universities to invest $10 million to open a facility
The firm expects to hire 400 workers
Shrinking automotive industry means
within four to five years and projects
= availability of engineering talent expansion to 600 over a 15-year period.
Could reach 600 employees within 15 years

Source: Aernnova

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ENGINEERING R&D

U.S.A, Russia and India Lead in the Number of


Engineering and R&D Investments

30
No. of Investments

Russia and India have


25 deep engineering
talent pools
20 China also has
significant engineering
15
resourcesbut OEMs
are concerned about
IP protection, and
10
military work is off-
limits for US
5 customers

* Includes joint ventures and organic investments for over 150 OEMs and service providers; excludes acquisitions
Source: ICF SH&E

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ENGINEERING R&D

OEMs Can Also Harness Globalization By Working With


Major Engineering Services Firms
Major Aerospace Engineering Services Firms

Like OEMs, engineering services firms are globalizing


Indian firms have become major players in a relatively short period of time
Outsourcing of complete work packages is growing in popularity
EADS alone spends more 2B per year on engineering services

Source: ICF SH&E

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Agenda

Globalization The Next Wave

Engineering and R&D

Manufacturing
Customer Support and MRO

Implications

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MANUFACTURING

Investments in Manufacturing Facilities Has Been on an


Upward Trend Since the Late 1990s

35
No. of Investments

30

25

20

15

10

* Includes joint ventures and organic investments for over 150 OEMs and service providers; excludes acquisitions
Source: ICF SH&E

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MANUFACTURING

Mexico and China Received a Significant Number of


Investments in Manufacturing Facilities

50
No. of Investments

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
Mexico China USA India Russia Brazil Malaysia Morocco

* Includes joint ventures and organic investments for over 150 OEMs and service providers; excludes acquisitions
Source: ICF SH&E Analysis

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MANUFACTURING

Mexico Has Created a Robust Aerospace Manufacturing


Cluster Over the Last Decade
Selected Aerospace Investment in Mexico Mexico has more than 186 aerospace
firms with exports in excess of $3
billion and total employment of more
than 20,000 as of 2008

2008 investment of nearly $1 billion

Recent investments by Bombardier,


Cessna, and Aernnova

Aided by proximity to major US


OEMs, NAFTA, and Bilateral Aviation
Safety Agreement

Government investing $50 million in


a National Public
Aero Trade School

Source: MRO Management, MexicoNow

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MANUFACTURING

China Now Boasts Plethora Of OEM Investments

Selected Aerospace Investment In China

Broad and deep manufacturing


Harbin: ERJ145 Harbin: EC175 design
Shengyang: Heat Assembly and production capability
shields
Xian: turbine NGVs,
turbine rings, Leveraging comparative
Harbin: A350
compressor seals Xian: Electrical systems
composite parts
advantage in labor
C919
Tianjin: A320 Final
Assembly Line Also has a growing roster
of second and third tier
Xian: Landing gear aerospace suppliers; some
and engine nacelle Tianjin:
components Composites OEMs prefer arms length
manufacturing
relationships with Chinese
suppliers over direct investment
Chengdu: Precision Shanghai: Fuel
sheet metal systems (C919)
Manufacturing and raw material
capabilities will grow as the
Chengdu: Comms
Shanghai: COMAC
indigenous aircraft industry
and Nav for C919
919 manufacture continues to develop

Nanjing: Design and


production of ECS Suzhou: Landing gear Xiamen: Sensors,
Suzhou: Engine parts components valves, nozzles Suzhou:
Shanghai: Wheels Xian: Nacelles Autoclaved
and Brakes (C919) Shanghai: ECS composite parts Source: ICF SH&E

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MANUFACTURING

And Completed Its First Major Acquisition Of A


Western Supplier FACC In 2009
Fisher Advanced Composite Components

In December 2009, XAC (an AVIC company)


acquired Fisher Advanced Composite Components
(FACC); AVIC will eventually own 91%
FACC is a Tier I aerostructures supplier with 265.3
million in revenue and nearly 1,600 employees
A supplier on the ARJ21 and many other OEMs;
particularly strong with Airbus.
Addresses Chinas weaknesses in advanced
materials and complex mechanical systems;
should also assist with certification and supply
chain management gaps

Chinas first major acqusition of a western aerospace supplier

Source: ICF SH&E analysis, FACC

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MANUFACTURING

China Has Since Followed Through With Three


Aerospace Acquisitions in BGA Since 2010

EPIC AIR (2010)


CONTINENTAL
CIRRUS (2011)
MOTORS (2011)

General aviation kit


aircraft manufacturer
based in Bend, Oregon Iconic GA aircraft OEM
Three aircraft under that delivered nearly 5,000
development including Second largest piston new piston airplanes
piston, turboprop and VLJ aircraft OEM including the best-selling
models Powers many key piston Cirrus SR22 family
Brings composites aircraft models from Gives China piston trainer
capability and FAA Cessna, Beech, Piper, and and personal jet capability
certification experience others (e.g., Cirrus Vision)
Acquired from Teledyne Plans to continue
for $186 million production in North
Dakota facilities
Source: ICF SH&E analysis, Press reports

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MANUFACTURING

French OEMs Are Investing in North Africa

Aerospace Investment In Morocco And Algeria


Several SAFRAN businesses
have invested in Morocco for
Labinal (Safran) in EADS/Mubadala JV in manufacturing, engineering
Rabat (aircraft wiring Algiers (composites
manufacturing) manufacturing) and MRO activities
Aerolia (an EADS

Safran in
subsidiary) in
Tunisia (aero EADS and Mubadala (a UAE
Casablanca
(Teuchos Maroc;
structures
manufacturing)
investment company) are
Aeronautics developing composites
Engineering)
manufacturing capability in
Algeria
Snecma/Royal Air
Maroc JV in
The motivation for European
Casablanca (MRO) OEMs to invest North Africa
is similar to North American
OEMs investing in Mexico
Safran in Casablanca Boeing/Royal Air
geographic proximity, cultural
(Aircelle Maroc; Maroc/Safran JV in ties and reduced tariffs; an
nacelle Casablanca (MATIS; aircraft
manufacturing) wiring manufacturing) EU-Mediterranean free trade
area (planned for 2010)

Source: ICF SH&E

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MANUFACTURING

Developed Nations Continue To Retain A Comparative


Advantage: Highly Developed Talent/Skills
Focus is on harnessing
science & technology and
local knowledge to
maximize manufacturing
efficiency in order to
compete against lower-
wage countries
Better IP protection in
developed countries
However, battle for talent
is escalating, and
emerging markets like
India, China are churning
out armies of engineers
which could narrow the
talent/skills gap between
developed and emerging
economies

Source: WSJ.com

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Globalization 2.0 Is Driving New Aerospace
Manufacturing Clusters In The South
Global Aerospace Manufacturing Clusters

Aerospace suppliers concentrated


In North America and Europe

United Russia
Kingdom Germany
Quebec
Connecticut France Eastern
Washington Central US
Spain Europe
Southern China Japan
California India
Southeast
US North Malaysia
Mexico Africa
UAE

Singapore

Brazil

and Production is shifting South


Established Clusters
Emerging Clusters

Source: ICF SH&E

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Agenda

Globalization The Next Wave

Engineering and R&D

Manufacturing

Customer Support and MRO


Implications

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CUSTOMER SUPPORT & MRO

Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) Includes Five


Major Categories Of Activities

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CUSTOMER SUPPORT & MRO

Globalization Of MRO Is Shaped By Different Cost


Structures Of Different Maintenance Activities
Typical MRO Cost Structure
Engine Airframe Components Line

100%
Labor
Typical MRO Cost Breakdown

90% 20%
80%
Labor
45% Labor
70%
Labor 85%
60%
80%
50%

40%
Materials &
Parts Materials
30%
Repair & Parts
20%
80% Repair
10% Materials Materials
55%
0%
20% 15%

Source: ICF SH&E


Note: Varies by region of the world and fleet age

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CUSTOMER SUPPORT & MRO

MRO and Distribution Center Investments Surged


in 2007, 2008 And 2009 Before Ebbing In Recent Years

45
No. of Investments

40

35
Market down cycle
30 leads to reduced
capital investment?
25

20

15

10

* Includes joint ventures and organic investments for over 150 OEMs and service providers; excludes acquisitions
Source: ICF SH&E

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CUSTOMER SUPPORT & MRO

The U.S.A., China and Singapore Saw the Most MRO


and Distribution Investments

USA volume led by


business jet OEMs
60
No. of Investments

establishing their
support networks in the
50 1990s/2000s boom

40 OEMs invest in China


for market access,
30
labor intensive MRO
activities, and to get
behind the tariff wall
20
and customs, which is
inconsistent
10
Singapore is favored
0 for capital intensive
MRO activities, service
parts distribution, and
MRO-related R&D

* Includes joint ventures and organic investments for over 150 OEMs and service providers; excludes acquisitions
Source: ICF SH&E

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CUSTOMER SUPPORT & MRO

The UAE is Attracting a Broad Base of Investors


Aerospace Investment In UAE

The broad-based initiative of


Chromalloy/ B/E Aerospace in Dubai Bombardier/ExecuJet the UAE to become an
Masaood JV in Dubai (MRO/ Distribution) JV in Dubai (Service aerospace cluster is bearing
(MRO) Centre/Spare parts
depot) fruit; Mubadala is an
important catalyst
Goodrich in
Dubai and Abu Partnered Transworld
Dhabi (MRO) Aviation Several leading OEMs have
distribution/MRO
made MRO investments;
Moog in Dubai market clusters are
(Distribution)
Aerostructures plant emerging

Composites manufacturing
Sikorsky/
Thales/GAMCO
capability is a key focus area
Mubadala in Abu
Dhabi (military JV in Abu Dhabi
aviation MRO) (MRO) The key challenge for the
UAE is human resources;
most firms are heavily
EADS/Mubadala JV in
Finmeccanica/ Rolls Royce/ GE/Mubadala
Mubadala JV in Abu Mubadala JV in
Abu Dhabi
JV in Abu Dhabi
dependent on expensive
(composites
Dhabi (composites Abu Dhabi (MRO)
manufacturing); JV
(MRO) expatriate labor
manufacturing)
with Tawazun (alloys)

Source: ICF SH&E

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CUSTOMER SUPPORT & MRO

Malaysia Has Also Attracted Numerous Investments

Bukit Kayu Hitam:


Petaling Jaya:
Subang:
Subang is the hub for MRO
MTU/Lufthansa Technik JV Subang: Sabena/MAE
Boeing/Hexcel JV (Engine repair workshop)
Manufacture
composites JV (Component repair activities in Malaysia;
(Manufacture, sell and
distribute composite subassemblies and overhaul) [MoU]
MAEs main facility is at
parts for secondary
structures for Boeing Subang so co-location
commercial aircraft) Subang: P&W/MAE JV
(Composite repair and
makes sense
overhaul of engine

Perai: Avionics
nacelles)
Subang is also a key hub
integrated supply for business aviation &
chain activities Subang: Hawker
Pacific/ExecuJet JV
rotary wing
(Full handling
services, VIP lounge
Klang: Hamilton and fuel provision) Penang is a major
Sundstrand/MAS JV
(Overhaul and repair electronics manufacturing
of aircraft air
management systems) Subang: Jet hub in the region; Kedah
Aviation/AIROD JV (FBO,
line maintenance, AOG and and Melaka has seen some
Subang: AAR/AIROD
tenant services to local
and regional aircraft
success in composites
JV (Landing gear operators) manufacturing
MRO)

Subang: EADS Malaysia has comparative


Subang: Sales and
distribution centre of
SECA/MAE JV (PW100
engines MRO)
advantages in availability of
Subang: Full-fledged
regional hub for
EC products; and MRO Subang: GE/MAS JV land, good infrastructure
service centre (Repairs and overhauls for
maintenance and
servicing GE, CFM56, and PW4000 Melaka: CTLA:
and lower labour costs
engines for MAS and other CTRM/CTL JV
Asia-Pacific airlines (Composites testing)
Source: ICF SH&E

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CUSTOMER SUPPORT & MRO

Globally, There Are Several Emerging MRO Clusters


That Are Challenging Existing Concentrations

United
Quebec Kingdom Germany
France Eastern
Central US Europe Eastern
Southern China
California
South
Florida Malaysia
Mexico
North UAE
Africa
Central
America Singapore

Brazil

Established Clusters Emerging Clusters

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Agenda

Globalization The Next Wave

Engineering and R&D

Manufacturing

Customer Support and MRO

Implications

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IMPLICATIONS

The USA Remains As The Largest Aerospace Industry

250

200

150

100

50

0
USA France China UK Germany Canada Japan Russia

Source: ICF SH&E

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IMPLICATIONS

The World Map By Size Of National Aerospace Industry


Highlights The Importance Of The Top Six Countries
2011 Global Aerospace Market Size*
Total = $530B

$23B $38B $60B $36B


87,000 employees 100,000 employees 143,000 employees 97,000 employees

$220B $39B
624,000 employees 625,000 employees

Source: National Industry Associations / Secondary Research / ICF SH&E analysis * Size of country proportional to aerospace market size and land area

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IMPLICATIONS

Despite the Increased Pace of Globalization, Aerospace


is Inherently Political and is Not Flat
Important Factors Shaping Aerospace Globalization
Negative
National security/
Positive ITAR* restrictions

Enhanced Protection of IP
productivity / lower Political backlash
labor costs to globalization
Currency risk and offshoring
hedge Increased
Access to broader execution risk
pool of suppliers Tom Friedman may say
and resources that the world is flat,
Market access but aerospace isn't!

* International Traffic in Arms Regulations

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IMPLICATIONS

Political Backlash to Offshoring Could Slow Down the Pace


Of Globalization in the Near Term

Sources: ARSA, Washington Post; CBC, The Guardian, TWU

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IMPLICATIONS

Has This Wave Of Aerospace Globalization Reached


its Zenith?

100
No. of Investments

90 Reduce cost base to


offset down cycle
80
Ensure access to
70 emerging economies
Tap global human
60 resource pool

50

40
Politics
30 Down cycle =
reduced capital
20
investment
10 Less access to credit

* Includes joint ventures and organic investments for over 150 OEMs and service providers; excludes acquisitions

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IMPLICATIONS

Globalization Has Important Implications For Suppliers


And Governments
Where to locate key activities to underpin strategy and desired competitive
positioning?
How to collaboratively manage value chain on global basis?
Make vs. buy: which core competencies should be kept in house?
How to leverage globalization to improve market access? To address human
resource challenges?
How to improve productivity without compromising IP protection?

What is the proper balance of in-house versus outsourced activities?


Where to locate key activities to underpin strategy and desired competitive
positioning? How to leverage low cost poles?
To what extent should investments follow those made by key customers?
How to manage global supply chains and human resource pools?
How to fend off threats from new competitors in low cost regions?

Which aerospace market segments and/or value chain activities to target?


How to develop elements of a cluster ecosystem?
Desired mix of indigenous suppliers versus foreign direct investment?
Appropriate regulatory and taxation policies?
What is the required infrastructure? Human resources and education?
For existing clusters: how to maintain competitiveness in light of emerging clusters
in low cost regions?

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Key Messages

The nature of aerospace globalization is changing as


OEMs experiment with new ways to manage and
integrate their value chains across widely dispersed
global geographies
The pace of globalization accelerated in recent years
Several countries are emerging as new aerospace
clusters including Malaysia, Mexico, Brazil, UAE, and
Morocco
The changing nature of aerospace globalization
creates opportunities and challenges for Canadian
suppliersand governments
Despite the increased pace of globalization, the
aerospace industry is inherently political and is not
flat, but globalization will continue in the long term

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Thanks and Q&A

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BACKUP SLIDES

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Annual Aircraft Production Is Projected To Increase From
4,200 to Over 5,000 Units By 2017
Aggregate Production Market
Units
2011-2021, By Market Segment
6,000
Market, CAGR
5,000

Military Fixed Wing, -4.6%


4,000
Business & Gen Aviation;
3,000 5.2%
Rotary Wing; 3.4%

2,000
Air Transport; 2.9%

1,000

- Total CAGR = 2.9%


2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Source: ICF SH&E

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Air Transport Production Will Increase From 1,200 To Over
1,600 By 2021, Led By Boeing and Airbus
Air Transport Production Market
Units
2011-2021*, By OEM
1,800
Other
1,600 Embraer
1,400 Bombardier

1,200

1,000 Boeing
Transition to
800 A320neo & B737MAX

600

400
Airbus
200

-
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Total CAGR = 2.9%

* Drop in production rates from 2014 to 2016 is due to a change in orders, shifting from legacy aircraft to next generationsee following page

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The Transition to Next Generation Aircraft Will
Have Significant Influence On The Supply Chain

Air Transport Production Forecast

Narrowbody (Units) Widebody (Units)


500 160
450 140
A320 A330
400
A320 120 A350
350 NEO A380
B737NG 100
300 B747-8
B737MAX 80 B767
250
C919 B777
200 60 B777-X
150 C-Series B787
40
100 MS-21
20
50
0 0

Aggregate production levels likely to fall in

Source: ICF SH&E


transition to next generation aircraft

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Annual Aero-Engine Production Should Exceed 11,000
Units By 2021
Aero-Engine Production Market*
2011-2021, By OEM
Units

14,000
OEM, CAGR
12,000
Others; -1.2%
10,000
Rolls Royce; 3.9%

8,000
Turbomeca; -2.3%

6,000
CFM International; 2.4%

4,000
General Electric; 0.3%

2,000 Pratt & Whitney; 7.4%

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

* Includes Spares
Source: ICF SH&E

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Aircraft OEM Tier 1 Supply Chain Strategies Are Also
Facilitating Ongoing Consolidation
Number of Suppliers

500 450
400
400
400 350 350
300
300
250
250
200
200 140
4 risk 16 risk 150
sharing sharing
suppliers suppliers 100 75
100 < 50
38 50

0 0
RB211-524 Trent 500 Trent 900 Trent 1000 Trent XWB
EMB 145 EMB (1977) (2002) (2004) (2008) (2013)
(1999) 170/190
(2004)

Source: ICF SH&E

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As Suppliers Strive To Create Complete Systems
Solutions
Meggitts Integrated Fire Detection
And Suppression Systems
Meggitts 2011 acquisition of Pacific
Scientific brought together two key
fire detection subsystem
capabilities
- Detection
- Suppression

Meggitt can now offer an integrated


system with improved value for
both airlines and downstream
customers (aircraft and engine
OEMs)

Source: ICF SH&E


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Which Means That Future Tier 1 M&A Activity Must
Focus On Other Value Creation Levers

Value Creation Levers Tier I Consolidation

Share complimentary
technologies and R&D
Create global aftermarket
support network
Leverage customer
relationships/market channels
Create complete system
solutions
Redefine system architectures
and change the rules
Improved purchasing integration
Utilize global low cost
manufacturing sources

icfi.com/aviation | 50
Despite Tier I Consolidation, Vigorous Competition Exists
In Most Equipment Segments
Market Share Top Two Suppliers
Supplier 1 Supplier 2 Other Suppliers

Aerostructures

Flight Controls

Avionics & Defense Electronics


Vigorous competition
Environmental Control Systems
remains in most
Wheels & Brakes
equipment segments
Electrical Power & Distribution

Nacelles & Thrust Reversers

Engines

Interiors

Landing Gear

APU

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Source: ICF SH&E

icfi.com/aviation | 51
Tier I Consolidation Will Primarily Impact Aerostructures
And Aircraft Systems, Comprising 50% Of Aircraft Value
Aircraft Production Value Breakdown

OEM final
Aerostructures
assembly,
$37B
margins, NRE
$47B

2011 Market
~$137B

Interiors
~$5B
Aircraft systems, avionics
& defense electronics
Aeroengines ~$23B
~$25B
Source: ICF SH&E

icfi.com/aviation | 52
Consolidation Amongst Tier 4 Material And Process
Suppliers Is Also Gaining Momentum
The Aerospace Manufacturing Supply Chain
Leading raw
material suppliers
and process
suppliers are
repositioning via
vertical integration
and consolidation
This includes
forging, casting
and machining
process
suppliers
The upshot:
increases
bargaining power
vs. customers
Source: ICF SH&E Analysis

icfi.com/aviation | 53
Current Aerospace Supply Chain Trends Have Important
Implications For Aerospace Manufacturers
AIRCRAFT & ENGINE OEMS
Carefully manage consolidating Tier I
supplier base
Expanding revenue from services
Emergence of IPS paradigm

TIER I SUPPLIERS
More consolidation in wake of UTX-
Goodrich
Build value around Tier I systems
solutions

TIER 2 SUPPLIERS
Monitor make-buy decisions of Tier 1s
Need IP, low cost, or both
Key decision: global or local?
TIER 3 SUPPLIERS
Increased competitive intensity more
supply from low cost regions TIER 4 SUPPLIERS
Incumbents must audit business Ongoing consolidation & vertical integration
models More capacity in emerging aerospace clusters
Source: ICF SH&E Analysis

icfi.com/aviation | 54

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