Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Presented by:
Dennis Ling
Director Asia Pacific
dennis.ling@icfi.com
5 Dec 2012
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AeroStrategy is Now Part of ICF SH&E, One of the Worlds
Largest and Most Experienced Aviation Consultancies
Airports Airlines Aerospace & MRO Asset Advisory Safety & Security
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Agenda
Manufacturing
Implications
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GLOBALIZATION: THE NEXT WAVE
Aircraft
maintenance,
training,
simulation
23%
Aircraft engines &
parts
13%
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GLOBALIZATION: THE NEXT WAVE
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GLOBALIZATION: THE NEXT WAVE
Inbound
Logistics
Operations
Outbound Marketing Service
Logistics & Sales & MRO
Lower trade barriers
Human Resources / Infrastructure
Emergence of global
Engineering / R&D
Procurement
service firms
Operations
Logistics Logistics & Sales & MRO
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GLOBALIZATION: THE NEXT WAVE
Globalization database:
1,500+ investments for 160+
major aerospace firms
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GLOBALIZATION: THE NEXT WAVE
Engineering Others
/ R&D 6% Training
19% 4%
Organic,
45% Joint
Venture,
55%
MRO /
Manufacture Distribution
32% 39%
TOTAL TOTAL
715 672
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GLOBALIZATION: THE NEXT WAVE
200
No of investments
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
* Includes joint ventures and organic investments for over 150 OEMs and service providers; excludes acquisitions
Source: ICF SH&E
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Agenda
Implications
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ENGINEERING R&D
Source: Boeing
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ENGINEERING R&D
25
No. of Investments
20
15
10
* Includes joint ventures and organic investments for over 150 OEMs and service providers; excludes acquisitions
Source: ICF SH&E
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ENGINEERING R&D
Opened in 2007
Part of the EADS Technology
Centre, which has plans to hire
2,000 employees
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ENGINEERING R&D
Source: Aernnova
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ENGINEERING R&D
30
No. of Investments
* Includes joint ventures and organic investments for over 150 OEMs and service providers; excludes acquisitions
Source: ICF SH&E
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ENGINEERING R&D
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Agenda
Manufacturing
Customer Support and MRO
Implications
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MANUFACTURING
35
No. of Investments
30
25
20
15
10
* Includes joint ventures and organic investments for over 150 OEMs and service providers; excludes acquisitions
Source: ICF SH&E
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MANUFACTURING
50
No. of Investments
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
Mexico China USA India Russia Brazil Malaysia Morocco
* Includes joint ventures and organic investments for over 150 OEMs and service providers; excludes acquisitions
Source: ICF SH&E Analysis
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MANUFACTURING
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MANUFACTURING
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MANUFACTURING
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MANUFACTURING
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MANUFACTURING
Safran in
subsidiary) in
Tunisia (aero EADS and Mubadala (a UAE
Casablanca
(Teuchos Maroc;
structures
manufacturing)
investment company) are
Aeronautics developing composites
Engineering)
manufacturing capability in
Algeria
Snecma/Royal Air
Maroc JV in
The motivation for European
Casablanca (MRO) OEMs to invest North Africa
is similar to North American
OEMs investing in Mexico
Safran in Casablanca Boeing/Royal Air
geographic proximity, cultural
(Aircelle Maroc; Maroc/Safran JV in ties and reduced tariffs; an
nacelle Casablanca (MATIS; aircraft
manufacturing) wiring manufacturing) EU-Mediterranean free trade
area (planned for 2010)
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MANUFACTURING
Source: WSJ.com
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Globalization 2.0 Is Driving New Aerospace
Manufacturing Clusters In The South
Global Aerospace Manufacturing Clusters
United Russia
Kingdom Germany
Quebec
Connecticut France Eastern
Washington Central US
Spain Europe
Southern China Japan
California India
Southeast
US North Malaysia
Mexico Africa
UAE
Singapore
Brazil
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Agenda
Manufacturing
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CUSTOMER SUPPORT & MRO
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CUSTOMER SUPPORT & MRO
100%
Labor
Typical MRO Cost Breakdown
90% 20%
80%
Labor
45% Labor
70%
Labor 85%
60%
80%
50%
40%
Materials &
Parts Materials
30%
Repair & Parts
20%
80% Repair
10% Materials Materials
55%
0%
20% 15%
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CUSTOMER SUPPORT & MRO
45
No. of Investments
40
35
Market down cycle
30 leads to reduced
capital investment?
25
20
15
10
* Includes joint ventures and organic investments for over 150 OEMs and service providers; excludes acquisitions
Source: ICF SH&E
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CUSTOMER SUPPORT & MRO
establishing their
support networks in the
50 1990s/2000s boom
* Includes joint ventures and organic investments for over 150 OEMs and service providers; excludes acquisitions
Source: ICF SH&E
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CUSTOMER SUPPORT & MRO
Composites manufacturing
Sikorsky/
Thales/GAMCO
capability is a key focus area
Mubadala in Abu
Dhabi (military JV in Abu Dhabi
aviation MRO) (MRO) The key challenge for the
UAE is human resources;
most firms are heavily
EADS/Mubadala JV in
Finmeccanica/ Rolls Royce/ GE/Mubadala
Mubadala JV in Abu Mubadala JV in
Abu Dhabi
JV in Abu Dhabi
dependent on expensive
(composites
Dhabi (composites Abu Dhabi (MRO)
manufacturing); JV
(MRO) expatriate labor
manufacturing)
with Tawazun (alloys)
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CUSTOMER SUPPORT & MRO
Perai: Avionics
nacelles)
Subang is also a key hub
integrated supply for business aviation &
chain activities Subang: Hawker
Pacific/ExecuJet JV
rotary wing
(Full handling
services, VIP lounge
Klang: Hamilton and fuel provision) Penang is a major
Sundstrand/MAS JV
(Overhaul and repair electronics manufacturing
of aircraft air
management systems) Subang: Jet hub in the region; Kedah
Aviation/AIROD JV (FBO,
line maintenance, AOG and and Melaka has seen some
Subang: AAR/AIROD
tenant services to local
and regional aircraft
success in composites
JV (Landing gear operators) manufacturing
MRO)
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CUSTOMER SUPPORT & MRO
United
Quebec Kingdom Germany
France Eastern
Central US Europe Eastern
Southern China
California
South
Florida Malaysia
Mexico
North UAE
Africa
Central
America Singapore
Brazil
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Agenda
Manufacturing
Implications
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IMPLICATIONS
250
200
150
100
50
0
USA France China UK Germany Canada Japan Russia
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IMPLICATIONS
$220B $39B
624,000 employees 625,000 employees
Source: National Industry Associations / Secondary Research / ICF SH&E analysis * Size of country proportional to aerospace market size and land area
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IMPLICATIONS
Enhanced Protection of IP
productivity / lower Political backlash
labor costs to globalization
Currency risk and offshoring
hedge Increased
Access to broader execution risk
pool of suppliers Tom Friedman may say
and resources that the world is flat,
Market access but aerospace isn't!
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IMPLICATIONS
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IMPLICATIONS
100
No. of Investments
50
40
Politics
30 Down cycle =
reduced capital
20
investment
10 Less access to credit
* Includes joint ventures and organic investments for over 150 OEMs and service providers; excludes acquisitions
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IMPLICATIONS
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Key Messages
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Thanks and Q&A
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BACKUP SLIDES
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Annual Aircraft Production Is Projected To Increase From
4,200 to Over 5,000 Units By 2017
Aggregate Production Market
Units
2011-2021, By Market Segment
6,000
Market, CAGR
5,000
2,000
Air Transport; 2.9%
1,000
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Air Transport Production Will Increase From 1,200 To Over
1,600 By 2021, Led By Boeing and Airbus
Air Transport Production Market
Units
2011-2021*, By OEM
1,800
Other
1,600 Embraer
1,400 Bombardier
1,200
1,000 Boeing
Transition to
800 A320neo & B737MAX
600
400
Airbus
200
-
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Total CAGR = 2.9%
* Drop in production rates from 2014 to 2016 is due to a change in orders, shifting from legacy aircraft to next generationsee following page
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The Transition to Next Generation Aircraft Will
Have Significant Influence On The Supply Chain
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Annual Aero-Engine Production Should Exceed 11,000
Units By 2021
Aero-Engine Production Market*
2011-2021, By OEM
Units
14,000
OEM, CAGR
12,000
Others; -1.2%
10,000
Rolls Royce; 3.9%
8,000
Turbomeca; -2.3%
6,000
CFM International; 2.4%
4,000
General Electric; 0.3%
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
* Includes Spares
Source: ICF SH&E
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Aircraft OEM Tier 1 Supply Chain Strategies Are Also
Facilitating Ongoing Consolidation
Number of Suppliers
500 450
400
400
400 350 350
300
300
250
250
200
200 140
4 risk 16 risk 150
sharing sharing
suppliers suppliers 100 75
100 < 50
38 50
0 0
RB211-524 Trent 500 Trent 900 Trent 1000 Trent XWB
EMB 145 EMB (1977) (2002) (2004) (2008) (2013)
(1999) 170/190
(2004)
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As Suppliers Strive To Create Complete Systems
Solutions
Meggitts Integrated Fire Detection
And Suppression Systems
Meggitts 2011 acquisition of Pacific
Scientific brought together two key
fire detection subsystem
capabilities
- Detection
- Suppression
Share complimentary
technologies and R&D
Create global aftermarket
support network
Leverage customer
relationships/market channels
Create complete system
solutions
Redefine system architectures
and change the rules
Improved purchasing integration
Utilize global low cost
manufacturing sources
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Despite Tier I Consolidation, Vigorous Competition Exists
In Most Equipment Segments
Market Share Top Two Suppliers
Supplier 1 Supplier 2 Other Suppliers
Aerostructures
Flight Controls
Engines
Interiors
Landing Gear
APU
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Tier I Consolidation Will Primarily Impact Aerostructures
And Aircraft Systems, Comprising 50% Of Aircraft Value
Aircraft Production Value Breakdown
OEM final
Aerostructures
assembly,
$37B
margins, NRE
$47B
2011 Market
~$137B
Interiors
~$5B
Aircraft systems, avionics
& defense electronics
Aeroengines ~$23B
~$25B
Source: ICF SH&E
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Consolidation Amongst Tier 4 Material And Process
Suppliers Is Also Gaining Momentum
The Aerospace Manufacturing Supply Chain
Leading raw
material suppliers
and process
suppliers are
repositioning via
vertical integration
and consolidation
This includes
forging, casting
and machining
process
suppliers
The upshot:
increases
bargaining power
vs. customers
Source: ICF SH&E Analysis
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Current Aerospace Supply Chain Trends Have Important
Implications For Aerospace Manufacturers
AIRCRAFT & ENGINE OEMS
Carefully manage consolidating Tier I
supplier base
Expanding revenue from services
Emergence of IPS paradigm
TIER I SUPPLIERS
More consolidation in wake of UTX-
Goodrich
Build value around Tier I systems
solutions
TIER 2 SUPPLIERS
Monitor make-buy decisions of Tier 1s
Need IP, low cost, or both
Key decision: global or local?
TIER 3 SUPPLIERS
Increased competitive intensity more
supply from low cost regions TIER 4 SUPPLIERS
Incumbents must audit business Ongoing consolidation & vertical integration
models More capacity in emerging aerospace clusters
Source: ICF SH&E Analysis
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