Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2 LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Indian construction procurement
2.3 Risk Management Process
2.3.1 Risk identification
2.3.2 Risk assessment
2.3.3 Risk Response and Mitigation
2.3.4 Risk Monitoring and Control
2.4 Types of risks
2.4.1 Resource Risks
2.4.2 Technical Risks
2.4.3 Site Risks
2.4.4 Planning and Selection Risks
2.4.5 Market Risks
2.4.6 Management Risks
2.4.7 Policy and Political Risks
2.4.8 Financial Risks
2.5 Impact of Risks
2.6 Summery
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction
The construction industry in India in more complex and subjected to greater risk as compared
to any other business and thus it is important for the selection as well as implementation of
effective strategies of risk management in order for the project to be successful and thus
forms the core introductory principles of risk management (Risk Management Standards,
2002). The completion of construction projects within the projected time span has always
been the most challenging task for the construction companies and it is found that many
construction projects have been unsuccessful in the delivering the projects at time, cost and
quality which the clients and their consultants had perceived before the starting of the project
(Veeralli, 2008) and thus it is important for the management to efficiently design a plan of
action to achieve the goals and requirements.
Many construction management institutions have recently recognized the need to include risk
management as an integral and one of the most important element of project management
(Simon et al, 1997). Al-Bahar and Cradall (1990) have suggested using the project risk
management processes within four to five phases and these phases includes initiation,
identification, analysis, response planning and control and these processes can be applied in
general and also for specific project sizes and types. Flanagan and Norman (1993) has
emphasized two aspects of any construction project which comprises of; the process i.e. the
project phases and the organization i.e. the project actors. From the construction perspective,
the entire construction project consists of many sequential phases. Simon et al (1997)have
suggested PRAM as the most effective and comprehensive Project Risk Management (PRM)
processes in today’s environment and PRAM enjoys such a special importance because it is
the first highly comprehensive process which has been designed by extensive team
comprising of practitioners as well as academics. Project Management Institute (2000) had
presented Project Uncertainty Management (PUMA) as an integrated methodology based on
the hierarchically structure, flexible and generic PRM process which is developed keeping in
view the owners and the consultants assisting the owners
In India, the problem of selection of risk management strategy has been a great concern for
government and project financers and as well as those in private sector, because a
construction project usually needs an enormous number of people with extraordinary skills
and requires the organization of a broad variety of unlike, yet incorporated activities. Such
complexity is further compounded by the unique features of each project and many other
external uncertainties. The author found, there is a lack of literature that has focused on the
practices, results or progress of risk management methods for Indian construction projects.
This is one of the key motivations for the author to investigate the subject in Indian context
and produce data that currently is sparse.
Although in this context risk can be associated with the possibility of greater reward, it is the
necessary balance between risk exposure and risk tolerance that management seeks to meet
strategic goals (Olsen, 2004).
Risk identification is the first step of the risk management process. It is aimed at determining
potential risks, i.e. those that may affect the project. PMBOK (PMI 2000) suggests that as
many project stakeholders as possible should participate in the risk identification process.
There are a number of tools and techniques for identifying the project risks these are
brainstorming, expert opinion, structured interviews, questionnaires, checklists, historical
data, previous experience, testing and modeling, evaluation of other projects. Empirical
studies of risk management practice show that checklists and brainstorming are the most
usable techniques in risk identification. They also highlight that risk identification often relies
on individual judgments of the project participants. Similarly, veeravalli (2008) stated in her
thesis report that the risk identification is the initial step for risk management process. Risk
must be identified and stated clearly and unambiguously so that that project team can come to
agreement and move on to analysis and planning. The goal of the risk identification step is
mainly to create a list of the risks that the team will face in project. If risk management is
seen as part of the overall decision making process and the identification of risks is perhaps
the most important element of risk management , then this action must be taken early in a
project’s life. She also added that it is well known that many of the major decisions that have
the greatest impact on the project are made during its early feasibility and design
development stages. It is at this stage where changes can be made with the least disruption
and also that the information upon which decisions are made, is most likely to be incomplete
or inaccurate. Hence in order to ensure that the right decisions are made, all the important
risks must be identified and assessed at the earliest possible point in the projects life cycle.
Shen (1997) identified the most serious project delay risks and the effective actions for
managing these risks through a questionnaire survey. This thesis work revealed that methods
where knowledge workers experience and subjective judgment are used are the most effective
and important risk management action, and that methods using quantitative analytical
techniques have been rarely used due to limited understanding and experience.
In today’s competitive world it is very necessary to use the developed software’s to manage
and develop the projects, Dey (2000) published a case study to manage projects in fast track
in case of public sector organization in India. Using conventional tools and techniques of
project management, it is impossible to handle the problem of reducing the project duration
from normal period. This study proposed the use of coexisting engineering in managing
projects for radically reducing project duration. The phases of project are accomplished
concurrently/simultaneously instead of in series. The complexities that arise in managing
projects are tackled through restructuring project organization, improving management
commitment, strengthening project-planning activities, ensuring project quality, managing
project risk objectively and integrating project activities through management information
systems. These issues ensure completion of projects in fast track, but also improve project
effectiveness in terms of quality, cost effectiveness team building, etc; and in turn overall
productivity of project organization would improve.
Thompson and Perry, (1992) published a book stating that the purpose of risk analysis and
management is to help stakeholders avoid these failures. Risk analysis helps in estimating
potential impacts of risk and in making decisions regarding which risks to retain and which
risks transferring to other parties. Chapman and Ward (1997) stated that both quantitative and
qualitative techniques are available for risk analysis in India. The quantitative methods rely
on probability distribution of risks and may give more accurate results than the qualitative
methods, if the available data is strong and reliable. On the other hand, qualitative methods
depend on the personal judgment and past experiences of the analyst and the results may vary
from person to person. Hence the quantitative methods should be given precedence if both
choices are available.
Successful completion of the project is very vial thing in Indian construction. Rubin and
Seeling (1967) were the first to initiate success and failure method. They thoroughly studied
the structure of construction, and the findings from their study concluded that the wrong
choice of project manager, unplanned project termination, unplanned risk management and
unsupportive senior management were the main reasons for project failure.
Russell & Jaselskis (1992) and Abidali & Harris (1995) measured project success by using
financial ratios derived by statistical search through a number of plausible financial
indicators. Their research was based on investigating the impact of a project manager’s
experience on project’s success or failure. Technical performance was worn as a measure of
achievement. It was concluded that project manager’s previous experience had minimal
impact on the project’s success or failure. Belassi et al (1996) have done concurrent research
on time, cost and quality, and he found that they were basic criteria for that success of the
project. Further he deeply discussed in other articles on project success, such as that of
Skitmore (1997) and Shenhar & Levy (1997). Atkinson (1999) called these measures as the
‘iron triangle’. Similarly, the recent report by Iyer & Jha, (2006) focused on the project
management issues based on the time, cost and quality and stated that the fundamental focus
of project management has been to deliver projects on time, on budget and meet
specifications. However, many major projects still fail to meet these targets, especially on
cost and schedule. Owners and shareholders have always been concerned with fast-tracking
projects, cutting costs and building safer buildings. The means of achieving these goals are
not very clear to the industry. We occasionally read about successful projects that meet all of
these goals; nonetheless, stories about failed projects, cost and time overruns, and drawn out
court cases continue to dominate the headlines. Focusing on project management issues, a
projects success is measured in terms of its performance on schedule, cost, and quality.
Schedule and cost are still widely used as performance measures of a project. Hence, the
discussion on this paper is limited to schedule performance of commercial construction
projects. Apart from cost, there are many other factors that affect construction time.
International survey has been done by Pinto and Pinto (1991), Pinto and Slevin (1987) and
Morris and Hough (1987) on interpersonal relationship between the project team, based on
their findings on soft measures such as satisfaction levels and suggested that success
measures should also include psychosocial outcomes such as safety, litigation and others that
relate to interpersonal relationship within the project team and they also identified that
communication, environment events, community involvement, team member conflict, lack of
negotiation and arbitration, legal disputes, management inability to understand site people,
and stakeholders value were likely to be identified for measuring project success or failures
and warranted the need of including them along Cost, Time, Quality and Safety.
Leslie Edwards (1995) conducted the questionnaire survey to identify the risks in
construction industry, the research found that there are so many risks that might affect the
aims of an organization to achieve the goals, so it necessary to identify the risks in early
period of the project, so as a part of an organization, or a project, needs to be identified. The
aims are usually commercial, the maximization or maintenance of profit margins, dividends,
and share price. So for completion of the project on time it is vital to do risk analysis.
Peldschus, F (1986) carried out a thesis work on identification of risks in construction
projects, the researcher identifies that all potential risks are determined by experience of other
projects and the knowledge about the environment. On the basis of the project goals and, as
far as it exists, on the basis of the project structure plan all work packages are examined with
regard to potential risks. Consequences not directly related to the projects, such as the
reputation of the company, which could be damaged by project delay, or the customer needs,
have to be taken into account. The identification of risks is a creative process, in which
internal and external experts and decision-makers are involved. On the basis of empirically
established check lists or by means of creative methods such as brainstorming/ - writing
possible influences are assessed. The aim is to get a project-specific risk catalogue. It is
useful to produce risk hierarchies to ascertain the mutual influence.
In this context, it is interesting to mention a recent study by Maytorena et al. (2005) that
suggests that the role of experience in risk identification is less significant than is commonly
assumed. During the risk identification process the potential risks fall in the different groups.
There are several approaches to classifying project risks and risk sources. Risk identification
is the initial process for assessment and analysis of risk (see figure 2.3). It consists of risk
management steps, risk assessment is step to step process for successful completion of project
which consist of risk elimination, risk reduction, risk re-evaluation, risk assumption, risk
transfer.
Figure 2.3 Risk Management Steps
The risk response process is directed at identifying a way of dealing with the identified and
assessed project risks. There are four main risk response strategies: risk avoidance, risk
reduction, risk transfer and risk retention (IEC 2001, PMI 2000, Smith et al. 2006). Risk
avoidance deals with the risks by changing the project plan or finding methods to eliminate
the risks. Risk reduction aims at reducing the probability and/or consequences of a risk event.
Those risks that remain in the project after risk avoidance and reduction may be transferred to
another party either inside or outside the project. Risk retention or acceptance indicates that
the risk remains present in the project. Two options are available when retaining the risk:
either to develop a contingency plan in case a risk occurs, or to make no actions until the risk
is triggered. Several studies (Baker et al. 1999, Lyons and Skitmore 2004) have identified
risk reduction as the most frequently used technique within the construction industry. The
results of a questionnaire survey (Akintoye and MacLeod 1997) report that risk transfer is the
most preferable strategy among the UK practitioners.
In the risk response step the action is taken to reduce, eradicate or avoid the potential impact
of risks on a project. Veeravalli (2008) stated in her report, that there are two types of
response to risk; one is an immediate change or alteration to the project which usually results
in the elimination of risks; second is a contingency plan that will only be implemented if an
identified risk should materialize. Djoen et al. (2003) conducted questionnaire survey and
interview in Jakarta for response of risks in high rise building construction in Jakarta. They
identify ranks and categorize high potential risks in high rise building projects in Jakarta.
This shows that the risks related to management and design are the most significant in high
rise construction projects. The main conclusion from survey, is client interference should be
avoided or reduced in tandem with good communication and teamwork between contractors
and consultants to minimize defects and contractors need to pay attention to the maintenance
of equipment in order to sustain high productivity levels. Yuh-Huei and Ching-Song (2005)
carried out thesis work on the topic of “Implementing the risk analysis in evaluation phase to
increase the project value”. This research found that by integrating the risk management
directly into the evaluation procedure, the project can easily reach the consensus of risk
control and the project cost will be reduced. Omran et al. (1998) conducted the questionnaire
survey with the help of risk evaluation, the effects of potential risks on the project and its
work packages are looked at. This is done through estimation of the probability of the risk
occurring and the effects the occurring of the risk has on the project and the project
environment. These effects are measurable or are assessed qualitatively, i.e. cardinally or or-
dinally scaled or nominally recorded.
Al- Bahar (1990) and Leslie Edwards (1995) stated that the Construction risk is generally
perceived as events that influence project objectives of cost, time and quality. Some of the
risks associated with the construction process are fairly predictable or readily identifiable;
others may be totally unforeseen. Construction risk can be classified in 8 categories, resource
risk, Technical Risks, Site Risks, Planning and Selection Risks, Market Risks, Management
Risks, Policy and Political Risks, Financial Risks. Similarly Nigel (1998) stated that Risk
management is an organized method of identifying and measuring risk and then developing,
selecting, implementing and managing options for addressing risks. There are several types of
risk that an owner should consider as part of risk management methodology. These include:
• Schedule risk
• Cost risk
• Technical feasibility
• Risk of technical obsolescence
• Dependencies between a new project and other projects
• Physical events beyond direct control
Further he explained that the risk management seeks to identify and ultimately control
possible future events and should be proactive rather than reactive. To be effective, risk
management must rely on tools and techniques that help predict the likelihood of future
events, the effects of these future events and methods to deal with these future events. Risk
management is the responsibility of everyone involved in a project.
Finnerty (1996) published book on project financing describes nine types of risk that are
Supply, technological, completion, economic, financial, currency, political, environmental,
force majeure. Miller and Lessard (2001) constructed a list of risks from a project financing
erspective, and correspond with the construction-project specific risk categorizations (see
table 1). The reason for this similarity is probably that most project financing projects
typically concern large engineering and construction projects. From these lists, it is harder to
detect classes that would be sources for the risks caused by other actors or network dynamics.
Technical Social
Construction Economic
Legal Financial
Natural Commercial
Logistics Political
Categorizations help to form risk lists that are useful when identifying risks, but are
inadequate when forming the whole picture. Obviously, many of the Finnerty’s and Miller
and Lessard’s risks relate to the network structure; supply risks and political risks are the best
examples of the risks that are caused by the other than the main contractor. Both of these lists
are done from the main contractor’s perspective, and are not that much concerning the
optimisation of the whole network.
A four-level categorisation is presented by Artto and Kähkönen (2000) this categorisation
tries to fade a project type and be a general categorisation. Risks are divided into pure risks
(e.g. hazards and weather conditions), financial risks (e.g. cash flow or credit risk), business
risks (almost anything that can happen in a project) and political risks, which refer to the
certain political environment and risks that are caused mostly by extreme conditions, such as,
among others, war. Risks in the project network can relate to any one of this list’s categories.
Project actors can cause hazards to one and other because of inexperience, lateness of their
products, delivery failure or unmade payments (bankruptcy) or new government laws either
in favour or disfavour of the project. Similarly Turner (1999) suggested that risks can be
divided either according to their impact or by where the control lies. Thus these categories
can be further divided into business risks, insurable risks, external risks and internal risks, for
example bad weather is external risks since it can’t be controlled by a project manager and
business risks are those risks that in generally have to be accepted in order to have an
opportunity to take advantage of positive outcomes of a risk.
In the recent report, Koehn et al. (2000) identified that the risk relates to matters such as
increased taxes and royalties, revocations or changes to the concession, exchange controls on
proceeds, forced government participation in shares and refusal of import licenses for
essential equipment. A growing global presence brings the danger of a greater exposure to
political risk. Manager of Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry (ASSOCHAM),
New Delhi (2007), explained in this context, how are India’s new globalizes approaching the
issue of political risk in the markets in which they are investing? To what extent are these
perceptions – together with the availability of suitable risk insurance products – determining
where they are choosing to invest? Most importantly, how is the current surge in outward
investment impacting India’s political risk insurance industry? Further to get the answers of
these questions, five Indian multinational enterprises were interviewed. This sample of
companies included some of India’s top ‘globalisers’, namely, Tata Steel, NIIT (a global IT
learning solutions corporation) and Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd. (pharmaceuticals), as well as
two recent outward investors, SRF (technical textiles, refrigerant gases) and DCM Sriram
Consolidated Limited (DSCL) (chloro-vinyl and agribusiness). Also interviewed were India’s
political risk insurance provider, the Export Credit Guarantee Corporation, and three general
insurers, namely, Bajaj Allianz, IFFCO-Tokio General Insurance Co. Ltd. and New India
Assurance.
Koskela (1997 p. 102) conducted the international survey and found in his survey in “Latin
American countries, it is estimated that between 20% to 25% of the total construction period
is lost as a product of design deficiencies, and in Indian construction industry these rate of
percentages of deficiencies is very high nearly 45% to 55% and these deficiencies produce
because of improper risk management and impact of risks that had not been taken into
consideration at initial stage of projects. Coordination is one of the major factor in India,
because there are lots of risks in Indian construction industry that has to be taken into
consideration, Higgin and Jessop (1965) recognized coordination as one of the three critical
functions in the risk management process along with ‘‘design’’ and ‘‘construction’’, if these
three functions have been taken into consideration, then it will be very useful in construction
industry to avoid the impacts of risks. Similarly, Rad (1979) conducted interviews with the
experts in India, through interviews with experts; He concluded coordination as the single
most important factor in construction industry, when multiple participant’s viz. design and
construction contractors and subcontractors are occupied. He also observed that active
synchronization could reduce, predict and cure problems caused by design construct lead-
time, materials availability, manpower, and equipment availability.
Richardson (2008) recently did research on Indian construction industry, Dubai construction
industry and Singapore construction industry, she analyzed that the scale of price of
construction industry increased in Dubai between October 2007 and July 2008 because of
impact of risks. The single country with superior inflation was Singapore, where prices rose
18.7%. The inflation rate in India is nearly 15.2%.The consultant’s latest cost commentary
warns that there are “serious capacity constraints” in Dubai, despite the flood of construction
firms that are moving into the region. It says these will influence building costs and
programmes. The report includes that 300,000 workers have recently returned to India from
the United Arab Emirates due to economic increase in the Subcontinent and the high cost of
living in Dubai. This has led to a tightening of the labour market, exacerbated by intense local
demand and global cost rises in items such as steel, aluminium, concrete and glass, which can
be further investigated in questionnaire.
Mehta (2008) identified that any construction company ability is depend or success of effort
is defined on its continuous changing situation, rework more effectively, evolve efficient
business processes and enable every function to contribute to its mission goal. Real estate
developer additionally contends regional demand fluctuation and varying customer
expectation. Engineering is very much about responding to context. It is interesting to note
how different locations affect the design of a structure – not just physical location, and
financial constraints, but cultural context, willingness of the team members to innovate, and
the differing manners in which teams organize and operate. But despite these differences
there are a number of consistent factors that contribute to a successful project and to avoid the
impact of risks. Srinivasan (2007)- conducted the survey on quality control and found that the
fundamental engineering principle has to be clarity in the structural form. This immediately
ensures that the structure is economical in the use of materials, which straight away reduces
the impact of risks and also leads to the ability to break the structure into components with a
specific purpose, which then allows repetition and economy in risk management process.
Proper risk management leads to improved quality control and accuracy. Where there is
complexity and potential inexperience in the site phase, proper knowledge of impact of risk
allows the design team to follow the construction with care and also allows texture and finish
to be applied to the projects with little or no cost due to the repetition and reuse. Research has
been done on assessment and impact of risks by Sheeran (1976) considered in her study,
functions of management, ranking along with planning, organizing, directing and controlling
are vital part in study of impact of risks. The author identified classified and assessed risks
inherent to joint venture projects at international level and provides a recommendation for
risk management.
2.6 Summary of Literature Review:
Overall review of the literature indicates that risk management is very important for the
success of projects in Indian construction industry. In this thesis the author indicated the
affect of types of risks which leads to the improvement in the Indian construction industry.
Risk management system has been adopted by some of the organizations, but for a success of
projects it is necessary for every organization to adopt the risk management system. There are
many risks in construction industry that has been outlined by the author in this thesis work;
many risk management systems available in market to resolve the impact of risks. Risk
identification is the initial stage for the risk assessment in construction industry. There are
many organizations working all around the world and providing services for risk management
like Township Development & Construction Company, GE Equipment & Services India,
CPWD (central public works department) etc. the author noticed that there is shortage of
labour in Indian construction industry as compared to international industries. Health and
safety is one of the major factors in Indian construction industry, question generally might
emerge what type of risks are most important in Indian construction industry and how they
can be prevented? Details of methodology are discussed in the next chapter