Population Growth, Entropy,

Ecological Footprint and the

h
Environment.

ad e
heh
lS
aye
Environmental science: how does
the natural world work?
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Dr

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Fall 2016 1
 h
ad e
Economic Growth is not
Environmentally Sustainable

heh
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lS
aye
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Dr

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Fall 2016 2
 World GDP and CO2

$100,000

370

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$10,000
350
World GDP Billions US$$

ad e ATMOSPHERIC CO2
330
$1,000

World GDP
CO2 level
310

$100

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290

$10
270

$1 250
0

0
50

0
00

0
00

50

0
0
00

5
40

45

0
65

5
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lS
0

1
11

12

5
15

16

7
18

18

0
1

2
1

1
aye
When the rate of increase depends directly on
how much stuff there is, we get exponential
growth
Important concept is doubling time
.H

A 1% yearly increase doubles in 70 years

A 5% increase doubles in 14 years

How long would it take a population to

double? (If the yearly rate increase is 1.18%)
Dr

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Fall 2016 3
 Shall We Continue Growth?

We associate growth with progress

cars, TVs, air travel, e-Gadgets,

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quality of life improvement
investment pays interest

ad e
Lets look at the physical growth (energy)
Surplus energy (beyond the bare amount needed for
survival) has translated into:
more food available, more people, more industry, economic

heh
growth
Our energy use, now at 12 TW globally, has historically
grown at >2% per year
What will this mean if we continue expanding energy
use at this rate? Fall 2016 7
lS
aye
Optimistic or Pessimistic ?
There are reasons to be optimistic about the
environment.
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Conventional air and water pollutants have

been regulated and birth rates have declined
to the point where zero population growth will
be realized in the near future.
The ozone depletion problem has been
addressed, the global warming problem is
being recognized, and moving to a
sustainable economy is being discussed.
Dr

There are reasons to be pessimistic about the

situation in developing countries.
Population growth is far from being under
control.
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 Environmental degradation is taking
place at a massive and unprecedented
rate, which is leading to the loss of
much of the world's renewable
resources.

h
The economic conditions in much of the
world's developing countries prevent

ad e
the people from having a long-term
perspective.
This, combined with a lack of
understanding of the long-term

heh
economic importance of maintaining the
environmental quality, implies that many
developing nations have not recognized
the need to take immediate steps to
preserve the environment. Fall 2016 9
lS
aye
Absolute Scarcity
The concept of absolute scarcity was originated by an
English cleric, Thomas Robert Malthus, who argued that
since there was a fixed amount of land, scarcity was
.H

inevitable because of the law of diminishing marginal

returns leading to catastrophe.
Malthus failed to consider technological innovations
which would change the relationship between population
and land.
The idea of absolute scarcity has been revisited in
modern times, as world population exploded, pollution
Dr

intensified, hunger increased, and shortages of energy

and other resources materialized.
Many scholars, citing the finite nature of the world and its
resources, argued that scarcity was inescapable.

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Fall 2016 5
 Entropy and Economics
Entropy refers to the amount of disorder in a
system: the higher the entropy, the higher the
state of disorder; the lower the entropy, the

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greater the order.
The second law of thermodynamics (the

ad e
entropy law) states that the total entropy of the
universe (or a subsystem of the universe) can
never decrease. The universe (system) moves
continually from order to chaos.
Entropy is related to Energy.

heh
A simpler way of phrasing this is that as time
and the physical forces of the universe
progress, energy and materials tend to
dissipate and become more difficult to access.
Fall 2016 11
lS
aye
The relevance of the entropy law of economic activity
and prospects for the future is that useful goods and
resources tend to be low entropy, and the economic
process increases their entropy.
For example, a fossil fuel, such as coal or oil, is
characterized by low entropy.
.H

Coal is a relatively homogenous substance, with a

much higher concentration of carbon than the
environment as a whole.
When the coal is burned in the economic process, the
carbon is scattered though the atmosphere.
The process of using the coal increases its entropy and
reduces its usefulness.
Dr

Since the amount of low entropy on earth is fixed, and

since entropic degradation is irreversible, it will be the
ultimate constraint on the human species.
Since we do not really know the initial stock of low
entropy matter, we do not know if our rate of
consumption is high relative to the stock.
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Fall 2016 6
 In addition, we receive constant infusions
of energy from the sun, and this energy
can be used to slow the process of
entropic degradation.

h
The policy implications of the relationship
between entropy and the economic

ad e
processes are that activities should be
encouraged that are less degrading of low
entropy, as these impose less costs on
the future.

heh
Conserving low entropy is conceptually
equivalent to saying that we should
minimize the use of inputs and minimize
waste. Fall 2016 13
lS
aye
Principles of Matter and Energy
To understand how ecosystems function, it is important to first know
something about how energy and matter behave - in the universe and in
living things. It is also important to understand the basic building blocks of
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life, starting with cells and organisms, and proceeding to communities and
populations.

Ecology
The scientific study of relationships between organisms and their
environment
Examines the life histories, distribution, and behavior of individual
Dr

species, as well as the structure and function of natural systems at

the level of populations, communities, ecosystems, and landscapes
Encourages us to think holistically about interconnections that make
whole systems more than just the sum of their individual parts
Examines how and why materials cycle between the living and
nonliving parts of our environment
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 Ecological Footprint
It compares human consumption of natural
resources with planet Earth's ecological capacity to
regenerate them.

h
It is an estimate of the amount of biologically
productive land and sea area needed to regenerate (if

ad e
possible) the resources a human population consumes
and to absorb and render harmless the corresponding
waste, given prevailing technology and current
understanding.
Using this assessment, it is possible to estimate how

heh
many planet Earths it would take to support humanity if
everybody lived a given lifestyle.

http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/
GFN/page/calculators/ Fall 2016 15
lS
aye
Matter and Energy
Matter and Energy are essential
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constituents of both the universe

and living organisms.
Matter - everything that takes up
space and has mass
Dr

Energy - the capacity to do work

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 Energy Quality
Low Quality Energy (High Entropy)
Diffused, dispersed, or low in temperature
Difficult to gather and use for productive purposes

h
Example: heat stored in the oceans

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High Quality Energy (Low Entropy)
Intense, concentrated, or high in temperature
Useful in carrying out work
Example: high-voltage electrical energy

heh
Many of our most common energy sources are low-
quality and must be concentrated or transformed into
high-quality sources before they are useful to us.
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lS
aye
Entropy=disorder, randomness 2nd Law: entropy
always increases
.H
Dr

LOW ENTROPY HIGH ENTROPY

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 Conservation of Matter
Under ordinary circumstances, matter is
neither created nor destroyed. It is recycled
endlessly.

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Matter is transformed and combined in different ways,

ad e
but it doesn't disappear. Everything goes somewhere.
The atoms and molecules in your body have passed
through many other organisms, over millions of years.

heh
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lS
aye
Properties of Energy
Energy cannot be recycled. Energy is reused,
but it
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is constantly degraded or lost from the

system.

Most energy used in ecosystems

originates as solar energy. Green plants
Dr

convert some of this energy to chemical

energy, which is then converted to heat or
kinetic energy by the animal that eats the
plant.Fall 2016 20

Fall 2016 10
 Cells: The Fundamental Units
of Life
Microscopic organisms, such as bacteria and
protozoa, are composed of single cells.

h
The human body contains several trillion cells

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of about two hundred distinct types.
Enzymes catalysts that speed up the rate of
chemical reactions in living systems
Metabolism - all the energy and matter

heh
exchanges that occur within a living cell or
organism

Fall 2016 21
lS
aye
The Electromagnetic Spectrum
.H

The wavelengths of visible

light drive photosynthesis.
Dr

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Fall 2016 11
 h
Photosynthesis

ad e
heh
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lS
aye
.H
Dr

Light and Dark

Reactions of
Photosynthesis Fall 2016 24

Fall 2016 12
 Energy Exchange in an Ecosystem

h
ad e
heh
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lS
aye
.H
Dr

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 Doomsday Models
The first step is to specify initial conditions (of population, wealth,
arable land, capital, natural resources, etc.) and then allow these
variables to grow.

h
The implications of growth are computed (that is, more output
implies more pollution, more output implies faster resource
depletion, and more people mean more food cultivation and more

ad e
soil erosion).
What these models found was that in a rather short period of time
(20-50 years), some sort of constraint interfered with the ability of
the economic system to support population and the system
collapsed.
These models caused considerable excitement for two reasons.

heh
Society was just beginning to become aware of the problems of
environmental degradation and population .
And the public was enthralled by (and did not really understand the
nature of) computers and computer models.
Many people felt that if a computer predicted the collapse of
humankind, this must be takenFall seriously.
2016 27
lS
aye
There are two criticisms of these doomsday models.
They are tremendously sensitive to the assumed rates
of exponential growth.
If population is assumed to increase at 2 percent per
year, it will double in 35 years. However, if population
.H

is assumed to increase at 3 percent per year, it will

double every 23 years.
These models have no endogeneity or positive
feedback in the model, including the effect of scarcity
on prices and prices on scarcity.
There is no mechanism for increasing scarcity,
pollution, or population to affect behavior in these
Dr

models. In other words, even as we are forced to wear

gas masks because of hideous pollution, we take no
steps to reduce the level of pollution.

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 Summary
Severe problems have been identified in this text,
and often little has been done to rectify them.

h
Pollution, environmental degradation, global
warming, loss of biodiversity and other problems

ad e
have been shown to have the potential to drastically
affect the quality of life in the future.
However, the future is not already determined; the
future is a choice and our actions today will
determine the future.

heh
Through an understanding of scientific
relationships, social institutions, and economic
principles, we can understand the forces that govern
environmental change and choose a set of policies
that move us toward a sustainable future.
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lS
aye
.H
Dr

Fall 2016 15