ASSIGNMENT IN FORECASTING Part 1

Name: ___________________________________ Section: ___________ Student No.: __________ Date: __________

1. The XYZ Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated
mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows:

Year Mileage
1 3,000
2 4,000
3 3,400
4 3,800
5 3,700

Required:

1.1. Forecast the mileage for the next year (6th year) using a 2-year moving average.
1.2. Find the MAD based on the 2-year moving average.
1.3. Use a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of .4 and .6 to forecast next years mileage. What MAD
results from using this approach to forecasting?
1.4. Compute the forecast for year 6 using exponential smoothing an initial forecast for year 1 of 3,000 miles,
and = .5.

2. As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at ABC Hospital has increased steadily
in the past few years:

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6
Heart Transplant 45 50 52 56 58 ?

The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be 41 surgeries.

Required:

2.1. Use exponential smoothing, first with a smoothing constant of 0.6 and then with one of 0.9, to develop
forecasts for years 2 through 6.
2.2. Use a 3-year moving average to forecast demand in years 4, 5, and 6.
2.3. Use the trend-projection method to forecast demand in years 1 through 6.
2.4. With MAD as the criterion, which of the four forecasting methods is best?

3. A logistic company has been in business for four years and wants to develop monthly indices. Inventory monthly
quantities for these years are shown below.

Required:

3.1. Develop monthly indices

3.2. Estimate next year forecast for the months: April, July and December, assuming that the annual inventory
quantity will be 1500.

George has forecasted that annual demand for his sailboats in year 5 will equal 5,600 sailboats. Based on this
data and the multiplicative seasonal model, what will the demand level be for Georges sailboats in the spring of
year 5?
 ASSIGNMENT in Linear Programming Part 1

Name: _________________________________ Section: __________ Student No.: __________ Date: _________

1. Show a separate graph of the constraint lines and the solutions that satisfy each of the following constraints:
1.1. 3A + 2B 18
1.2. 12A + 8B 480
1.3. 5A + 10B = 200

2. Identify the feasible region for the following set of constraints:

0.5A + 0.25B 30
1A + 5B 250
0.25 + 0.5B 50
A, B 0

3. A local boutique produced two designs of gowns A and B and has the following materials available: 18
square meters of cotton, 20 square meters of silk, and 5 square meters of wool. Design A requires the
following: 3 square meters of cotton, 2 square meters of silk and 1 square meter of wool. Design B requires
the following: 2 square meters of cotton, 4 square meters of silk. If Design A sells for P1,200 and Design B for
P1,600, how many of each garment should the boutique produce to obtain the maximum amount of
money?

Required:
3.1. Develop the basic mathematical model
3.2. Determine the optimal combination and maximum amount of money.