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1. When Mrs. Clinton raised the South China Sea issue in Hanoi on July 23,she
called for multilateral talks to resolve the issue. Other countries lined up behind her
to voice their concerns. It seems that their efforts were orchestrated "chorus"?
What's your comment on the "chorus"?
ANSWER: Prior to the meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum, when the ASEAN Plus
China meeting was held, the Philippines raised the issue of the South China Sea on its
own accord. At the ARF meeting 12 countries including the United States raised the
question of maritime security and/or the South China Sea. The US was responding to
its own concerns about the South China Sea as well as growing regional concerns
that had been communicated to the US government prior to the ARF meeting.
It should be noted that the new president of the Philippines at the same time called
for a revision of the 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement with the United States. This is
evidence that the Philippines is acting independently.
2. Hillary Clinton's statement on the South China Sea dispute is a sign of a strategic
shift in the US's policy towards the Southeast Asia? Obama's approach towards
China is beginning to harden?
ANSWER: The United States remains steadfast to its longstanding policy of not taking
sides on sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea. This policy has not changed.
What has changed has been Chinese diplomatic pressure on American and other
foreign oil companies not to cooperate with Vietnam to develop oil and gas reserves
located within Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone. The US has repeatedly rejected
such pressures.
What is new is that the United States has declared that freedom and safety of
navigation and over flight in the South China Sea is a national interest and a national
interest of all countries that rely on trade passing through the South China Sea. No
country is directly threatening safety and freedom of navigation in the South China
Sea. Every time the US raises this issue, including this time, China responds by stating
it upholds freedom and safety of navigation.
The essential issue is the basis of Chinese claims to indisputable sovereignty over
features in the South China Sea based on history rather than international law
including the UN Convention on Law of the Sea. The features that China has
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occupied are in fact rocks not islands. If China claims that the features are islands it
can claim a territorial sea and an Exclusive Economic Zone. If these so‐called islands
are the joined together China will control the sea lanes of communication through
the South China Sea.
Rocks are naturally formed and cannot sustain human habitation or an economic
function. An island can. Building up rocks artificially and calling them islands skirts
the spirit and letter of international law.
3. Some believe that the United States plays a critical role in keeping a balance of
power in Asia. What's your comment on the balance of power in Asia? Is the United
States entitled to play a role in the South China Sea?
ANSWER: The United States has been a trading nation with countries in Asia shortly
after the United States came into being as an independent state. Its first treaty in
Southeast Asia was signed with the Kingdom in Thailand in 1833. The US also signed
a Treaty of Peace, Friendship, Commerce and Navigation with the Sultan of Brunei in
1850 and posted a consul there. The treaty still remains in force today. The US has
been a Pacific power since the 19th century whenit acquired Hawaii and Guam.
The US began to play a role as balancer during World War II when the United States
joined other countries in Asia, including the Nationalist government of China, in
opposing Japanese aggression. After the hot war in the Pacific, Asia was divided by
the Cold War. The Soviet Union occupied four of Japan’s northern islands. North
Korea invaded South Korea and later Communist China sent in forces. The US
therefore signed mutual security treaties with Japan and South Korea to maintain
the balance of power.
China has benefitted from the US presence. The US presence has prevented Japan
from remilitarizing and it has prevented Japan and South Korea from developing
nuclear weapons. US forces maintain stability on the Korean peninsula.
In Southeast Asia, the US has a mutual security treaty with the Philippines dating to
1951 and an alliance with Thailand arising from the 1954 Southeast Asia Collective
Security Treaty (Manila Pact) and a 1962 exchange of letters with Thailand. The
United States also has an alliance with Australia dating back to the 1950s.
The presence of the United States has contributed to the common good of
maintaining stability in Asia, promoting an open trade system and protecting the sea
lanes of communication that supports global trade.
The Obama Administration came to office very willing to cooperate with China. The
two countries have worked well in the Group of 20. But differences over US arms
sales to Taiwan and the activities of US military ships in China’s Exclusive Economic
Zone have seen a rupture in military‐to‐military relations.
Relations have worsened by China’s position on the sinking of the South Korean
corvette the Cheonan. An international team of experts, including an Australian,
have determined that the Cheonan was sunk by a North Korean submarine. North
Korea has been bellicose in defying the international community by conducting
nuclear tests and firing ballistic missiles in the sea. North Korean actions are a threat
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to peace and security in Northeast Asia. Without a US military presence North Korea
might undertake even more provocative acts.
The United States, like China, is a member of the ASEAN Regional Forum. It has every
right to raise security issues of concern including the South China Sea. China should
recall this issue was raised in the ARF at its first meeting in 1995. Quite simply the
international multilateral agreement between China and ASEAN – the Declaration on
Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (2002) – has not been implemented. The
US offered to facilitate confidence building and other measures to assist parties to
settle conflicting claims in the South China Sea peacefully, and before that, to
regulate their conduct peacefully under the terms of the DOC.
4. The strategy of some ASEAN nations has been to try to “internationalize” the
disputes by bringing in other players for multilateral negotiations. But Philippine
Foreign Secretary Alberto Romulo told reporters that ASEAN nations did not need US
help in solving territorial disputes with China over the South China Sea. He argued
that negotiations should be strictly between ASEAN and China. What's your
comment on the divergence?
ANSWER: The South China Sea was internationalized when China and the ten
independent members of ASEAN signed the 2002 DOC. Secretary Romulo’s view has
merit. China and ASEAN have two multilateral mechanisms to discuss the South
China Sea, a joint working group and ASEAN‐China Senior Officials Meeting. Under
the guidelines to implement the DOC (point two) ASEAN is supposed to consult
among its members first and reach consensus. After this, ASEAN and China should
discuss the matter. China insists on bilateral talks between the countries directly
concerned. This is widely viewed as a strong power trying to play divide and rule.
US intervention in this matter should spur China and ASEAN to get more serious to
address issues in the South China Sea. If China does so, there will be no need for US
diplomatic intervention.
5. ASEAN nations such as Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines are trying to forge
new links with the US to counterbalance China’s rapid rise to power. Is there a major
change of relations between China and ASEAN nations?
ANSWER: The Philippines has long‐standing defence and security ties with the United
States dating to the 1950s. They have forged closer links in the aftermath of 9‐11 and
cooperated to counter‐terrorism in the southern Philippines.
US improved relations with Indonesia and Vietnam is a two way street. First, it
should be noted, the 2010 US Quadrennial Defence Review identified Indonesia,
Malaysia and Vietnam as potential security partners with the United States. One key
driver of closer relations with the United States is the security dilemma created by
China’s rise, military modernization and transformation. A security dilemma is
created when a country like China undertakes defensive military modernization and
transformation that other countries see as potentially threatening. In the case at
hand the security dilemma is created by China’s lack of transparency and its efforts
to oppose the US presence in Asia.
6. Some argued that Beijing has to think about how to engage Asean in a more
measured manner once the current fit of pique is over. What's your comment?
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ANSWER: Since China’s enunciation of its new security concept in 1997, China has
immeasurably improved its political relations with ASEAN. China and ASEAN have
raised their relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership. It is widely viewed
that the current Global Financial Crisis has led China to overplay its hand because it
viewed the United States as a declining power. Chinese assertiveness in the South
China Sea since 2007, including its tough imposition of a unilateral fishing ban and
recent naval exercises, have raised regional concerns. Southeast Asian nations view
China as dragging its rivalry with the US into regional affairs.
China is at risk of eroding the very positive gains it made since 1997. Recall that in
the early 1990s “the China threat” was a common perception. China has done much
to dispel this. But recent actions have raised concerns.
China has a month to re‐evaluate its diplomacy and to decide how to create a “win‐
win” situation with ASEAN. The ASEAN Defence Ministers Plus Eight dialogue
partners will meet in October. China should come to the table with constructive
proposals. This meeting will be followed a series of ASEAN‐centred summits
including between ASEAN and China and later the East Asia Summit (EAS). China
should use the summit with ASEAN to indicate it is willing to follow the consensus
reached at the 17th meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum. This means picking up the
pace and achieving real results in the China‐ASEAN joint working group on the
implementation of the DOC. China should welcome the inclusion of the United
States and Russian Federation into the EAS. This is an historic first, a head of
government/state leaders meeting.
It would be most helpful if China were to resume military‐to‐military contacts with
the United States and work out pragmatically their disagreements.
7. International relations in Asia are still governed by pragmatism and power
politics?
ANSWER: International relations in Asia are in flux due to China’s rise. This means
that the regional system is not one of complete US hegemony. China is not yet
powerful enough to become the new hegemon. There is little possibility of a concert
of major powers, such as a Group of 2 (China and the US), determining international
relations. And Asia has not evolved into a true security community where every
nation has dependable expectations of peaceful change. That leaves an international
system characterized by balance of power in which national interests and
pragmatism play a key role. But even a balance of power system can generate a
vision of Asia’s future where cooperation predominates over confrontation.