thiopia must let Somalia determine its own fate

Jamal Osman 27 Sep 2017

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Somalia will not be able to assert itself and prosper until Ethiopia stops meddling
in its affairs. Western nations also need to reevaluate their support of the
Ethiopian regime if they ever want to see peace in the Horn of Africa.

This is the second in a three-part series on the challenges facing Somalia. You can
read the first part here.
Ethiopian troops in Baidoa, Somalia on June 22, 2014. African Union photo
Ethiopian troops in Baidoa, Somalia on June 22, 2014. African Union photo

Ethiopia has long been a thorn in the side of Somalia, a troublesome neighbour, and
an obstacle to regional peace.

In an ideal world, the two countries would be brotherly nations but in reality the
opposite is the case. The energy and resources spent by these erstwhile adversaries
in undermining each other could have made both nations prosperous.

To Somalis and many outside observers, Ethiopia is the aggressor in the

relationship. Ethiopia, a land-locked state, has long harboured ambitions to annex
Somalia in part of its quest for a Greater Ethiopia.

Currently, thousands of Ethiopian forces are in Somalia to contribute ostensibly to

the UN "peacekeeping" mission there. But in the minds of many Somalis, Ethiopia has
a hidden agenda and is using this as a cover.

Ethiopia has long meddled in Somali affairs. While negotiating with the British in
1897 over who should control Somalia, Emperor Menelik of Ethiopia claimed: Somalis
had been from time immemorial, until the Moslem [sic] invasion, the cattle-keepers
of the Ethiopians, who could not themselves live in the low countries.

That flawed quest to subjugate Somalis is the driving force behind Ethiopias
policy towards Somalia. The British were against the idea and warned of long-term
consequences but eventually ceded the Ogaden, a Somali-inhabited region, to
Ethiopia. This territory 95 percent ethnic Somali is part of historic Somalia.
The Somali-populated region of Ogaden in Ethiopia formed part of historic Somalia.
Today there is a low-level insurgency by Somalis resisting what is considered by
many to be an
The Somali-populated region of Ogaden in Ethiopia formed part of historic Somalia.
Today there is a low-level insurgency by Somalis resisting what is considered by
many to be an "Ethiopian occupation."

Following their liberation, the two countries fought disastrous wars in the 1960s
and 1970s. Somalia longed to regain its lost territory, and for many people there
was a longing to unite with their extended families across a border they viewed as
divisive and arbitrary.

However, Ethiopia was not satisfied in ruling over the Ogaden region, rather there
is an almost messianic desire to conquer or rule by proxy, swathes of the remainder
of Somalia.

As the Ethiopian historian Belete Belachew Yihuna noted: After 1977, even when
engaged in peace talks and attempts at reconciliation, Mengistus Ethiopia saw
safety only in the total disintegration of Somalia.

With the disunity, corruption, tribalism and external interference that has
enveloped Somalia, Ethiopia's former communist era President Mengistu and his
successors have managed to incapacitate Somali state.

There are several factors that have contributed to this.

The main one is that although a third of the population is Muslim, Ethiopia is a
Christian-led country. Its leaders manipulate international politics by playing the
victim card "as a Christian nation threatened by Muslim neighbours." Therefore, it
receives unparalleled political, military and financial support from the US and
Europe. With the support of the most powerful nations in the world, Ethiopia has
been given carte blanche to drive its agenda.

Its also good at distracting critics and taking calculated risks. When the
countrys late leader, Males Zenawi, came under pressure following the killing of
protestors in 2005, he sent his army to unilaterally invade Somalia. It was a
message to remind the West that Ethiopia remains a valuable partner in the "War on
Terror."

That message was understood loud and clear in many foreign policy circles in
London, Washington and Paris. So, rather than condemning his governments actions,
Western nations rallied around it.

The leaders in Addis Ababa have convinced Western nations that its only Ethiopia
that can deal with Somali "troublemakers."

This gives them power to meddle in Somali politics even at the village level. It
has created an atmosphere of fear. In most of Somalia, it is safer to publicly
criticise your own leaders than to oppose Ethiopias policy towards Somalia.

The recent case of Abdikarim Muse aka Qalbidhagah, which caused public uproar, is a
good example.

Abdikarim was abducted from Somalia and handed over to Ethiopia. He was reportedly
a member of the Somali National Army before the collapse of the central government
in 1991. He later joined the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), a movement
fighting for self-determination. What has shocked ordinary citizens is that the
Somali government, which is supposed to protect its people, "facilitated"
Abdikarims rendition to Ethiopia.

This was a big test for Somalias leaders of how far they are willing to compromise
the nation's sovereignty. It is moves like these that embolden Ethiopian leaders to
continue to push the boundaries of a government struggling to assert itself in the
face of systemic threats.

However, Somalis still have a chance to save their nation. And it may come from an
unexpected and unlikely source: Ethiopia itself.

The foreign policy ambitions of the Addis Ababa government have come at the expense
of neglecting its own citizens. For the past two years, the two largest ethnic
groups in Ethiopia, the Oromo and Amhara, have been demonstrating against the
government.

The initial peaceful protests have turned into an armed struggle. With the
authorities struggling to contain the violence, this has had serious implications
on its ability to wield power effectively. The still largely tribal nation faces
tensions that until recently had been masked by the economic and political largesse
bestowed by Western governments.

The current regime's ability to hold onto power has been called into question. As
state institutions falter and several ongoing insurgencies with dozens of ethnic
groups vieing for power, Ethiopias unity is in jeopardy.

The net result of this unfortunate outcome for the average Ethiopian citizen may
well mean that Somalia could pull itself out of the mire in which it finds itself
to build a stronger and more prosperous nation.

Regardless of what happens in Ethiopia, Somalis have to take control of their own
destiny. First, they must accept that Ethiopia would not have achieved anything
without the assistance of Somalis. This is of our own making. Somalis can not
expect states that have their own interests, ambitions and machinations to build a
state for them.

The current nation-state order demands that states work towards their own primary
interests first and foremost, and yes, even at the expense of other states. Thats
what Ethiopia did outmanoeuvring Somali leaders.

The solution is for Somalis to look from within their nation not as individuals but
as a collective, as a society. They must not remain divided through clan lines;
often loyalty to clan comes before the interests of the nation. It is about
understanding that inward-looking clans cannot form a modern cohesive nation. The
Somali people share several favourable characteristics that make for a strong
nation in todays world: one religion, colour and language.

Somalis must understand that the benefits of uniting as a nation outweigh

everything else.