IyC 1992-05

SCIENTIFIC
AMERICAN November 1992 Volume 267 Number 5
46 Health Care Reform

Rashi Fein
If any national issue rivals unemployment and the grim economic outlook, it is
health care. More than 35 million Americans lack medical insurance, even though
the u.s. spends more of its gross domestic product on health care than does any
other developed nation. The solution, the author proposes, is a radically new
structure that provides universal insurance and contains escalating costs.
54 The Expansion Rate and Size of the Universe

Wendy L. Freedman
The holy grail of cosmology is an accurate determination of the Hubble constant,

the rate at which the universe is expanding. Present measurements differ by a
factor of two-a door wide enough to accommodate several divergent hypothe
ses about the ultimate fate of the universe. New techniques that promise to
refine the calculation should affect the entire field of extragalactic astronomy.
62 The Risks of Software

Bev Littlewood and Lorenzo Strigini
Glitches in computer programs are armoying when they cost an hour's work. In
critical applications, such as telephone networks, nuclear power plants or missile
guidance systems, insidious faults can spell disaster. Since even the best proof
carmot pinpoint the extent of vulnerability, the authors argue that the use of
computers should be restricted wherever safety is a primary consideration.
SCIENCE IN PICTURES
Visualizing Biological Molecules

Arthur]. Olson and David S. Goodsell
The form of a protein strongly influences its function, so creating accurate pictures
of biological molecules is an important goal. It has been magnificently achieved
by the power of the computer to create images that combine art and engineering.
The Big Bang of Animal Evolution

Jeffrey S. Levinton
About 600 million years ago a remarkable burst of evolutionary creativity simul
taneously gave rise to the basic body plans of all modem, multicellular animals.
Why fundamentally new designs for living creatures seem not to have emerged
from the evolutionary cauldron since then is one of the great mysteries of biolo
gy. Several possible explanations for the stability come up short.
1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

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94 linguistic Origins of Native Americans

Joseph H. Greenberg and Merritt Ruhlen
The first Native Americans to settle in the New World brought with them their
genes and their languages. A comparative analysis of the many native tongues
reveals three distinct language families, indicating that the Americas were origi
nally populated by three successive waves of immigration from Asia.
100 Astronomy in the Age of Columbus

Owen Gingerich
Columbus's discovery that a vast, unknown landmass lay between Europe and
Asia vividly demonstrated that ancient knowledge of the world was woefully in
complete. The geographic revolution that followed paved the way for unorthodox
astronomical ideas, including the sun-centered cosmology of Copernicus.
106 TRENDS IN MICROMECHANICS
Micron Machinations
Gary Stix, staff writer
Researchers are borrowing chip-making technology to produce an array of mo

tors, gears and other mechanical parts so small as to be dwarfed by the point of a
pin or held in the pincers of an ant. More than displays of technical virtuOSity,
these minuscule gadgets may have uses ranging from the fabrication of devices
capable of extremely dense data storage to instruments for microsurgery.
16
DEPARTMENTS
Science and the Citizen 10 Letters

Hubble's enhanced image ....
Defending expert witnesses.
For rent: Russian spy plane .... How
m
bacteria resist drugs .... Stellar oscilla-

14 50 and 100 Years Ago
tions .... Too much industrial poli-
1942: The price of success in
cy? ... Sneaker spill .... Controlling
medicine is five years of life.
chaos pumps up a laser .... A cell
transplant controversy .... PROFILE:
Philosopher Karl Popper. 128 The Amateur Scientist
Plotting the period of
Cepheid variable stars.
118 Science and Business
132 Books
The first accountants .... Binding
Making work work .... More funds for
chemistry .... Structural failures.
Sematech? ... Biotechnology tackles
second messengers .... Artificial intel
ligence in drug development .... A 138 Essay: Michael Schulhof
sound solution for refrigerators.... Scientists, not M.B. A.'s, should
THE ANALYTICAL ECONOMIST: When be the captains of industry.
the poor are good credit risks.

SCIENTIFIC
THE COVER image of an ant with a nick-
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8 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1992


LETTERS TO THE EDITORS
Hobbled Space Telescope schedule calls for the train to make what alternative Huber has to offer to
its 85-mile run in 78 minutes-within the legal tradition of calling on expert
After reading Eric J. Chaisson's pane rounding errors, the same speed as its witnesses in court cases.
gyric to the performance of the Hubble namesake.
Space Telescope ["Early Results from Perhaps it is easier for society to MARCOSA J. SANTIAGO
the Hubble Space Telescope," SCIENTIF make quantum improvements by adopt Rumney, N.H.
IC AMERICAN, June], I was struck by his ing new technology, such as maglev,
enthusiasm for that flawed piece of than by accreting incremental improve
hardware. The Hubble project was a fi ments in existing technologies. Huber replies:
nancial, managerial and technical fias Individuals-particularly one such
co for NASA that resulted in the launch EDWIN COHEN as Nace, who has spent many years lit
of an expensive orbiting telescope that Binghamton, N.Y. igating Bendectin cases-can believe
has a technical capability far less than many things, often with sincere convic
planned. The place to have found and tion. But if courts are to resolve sci
corrected the fundamental design and Science on the Stand entific controversies consistently and
construction errors was in the labora accurately, they must rely less on indi
tory, not in orbit or in subsequent com In the essay "Junk Science in the vidual scientists, still less on individual
puter enhancements. Courtroom" [SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, lawyers and more on the published,
NASA spent many millions of dollars June], Peter W. Huber espouses that cit peer-reviewed, consensus conclusions
on Hubble, which ain't chopped liver. izens are not capable of honestly evalu of scientific communities.
Unfortunately, Hubble's performance ating scientific evidence and deciding Readers interested in the science of
ain't pilte. I wonder how much error or the most probable cause of an injury. Bendectin and cerebral palsy may re
wishful thinking is incorporated in the He essentially wants to stifle scientific fer to the FDA'S published pronounce
computer enhancement of Hubble's thought and any opinion that might ments on Bendectin, to the Institute of
flawed imagery? not be in the majority. Medicine's Medical Professional Liabili
Huber uses as an example the drug ty and the Delivery of Obstetrical Care
ROBERT C. GEISS Bendectin. He declines to point out that (National Academy Press, 1989) and to
El Toro, Calif. many epidemiologic studies have shown the large body of scientific literature
a statistically significant association be that those reports cite.
tween Bendectin and numerous birth
Will It Run on Time? defects. In fact, the Food and Drug Ad
ministration never concluded that Ben Jumbling the Genes
As a scientist, I am fascinated by dectin "did not cause birth defects." The
maglev technology ["Air Trains," by truth is that every animal study ever There was a mutation in "Genetic
Gary Stix; SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, Au done by anyone other than the manu Algorithms," by John H. Holland [SCI
gust]. As a commuter, I remain un facturer showed effects, from heart de ENTIFIC AMERICAN, July], an otherwise
impressed. The goal of transportation fects to hernias and missing limbs. The faSCinating introduction to computer
planners should be to build high-speed company's own studies also showed an programs designed to evolve. Chromo
conventional rail systems capable of effect on rabbits. somal crossing-over, which leads to the
moving commuters between cities 300 I suggest that it would be far better recombination of genetic material, does
to 400 miles apart at 180 miles per to have "junk science" in a courtroom not occur when sperm and ova fuse, as
hour-a reasonable compromise be than no science unless confirmed by stated in the article. Rather crossing
tween the low-cost, low-speed automo governmental authorities. over occurs during meiosis, the pro
bile and the high-cost, high-speed air cess that produces ova or sperm. This
plane. If I could ride such a train for BARRY J. NACE system allows a much greater degree
less than $120, that is the option I Paulson, Nace, Norwind & Sellinger of genetic recombination, and hence di
would choose. Maglev would have to be Washington, D.C. versity, than would crossing-over at the
equally successful at balancing cost time of fertilization.
versus travel time, and I am not opti The relation of inept practices by ob
mistic about that prospect. stetricians at the time of birth to later MARy L. MARAZITA
neurologic and motor problems, includ Department of Human Genetics
MICHAEL TuRBERG ing cerebral palsy, is known and accept Medical College of Virginia
Indianapolis, Ind. ed in the field. Naturally, in particular Virginia Commonwealth University
cases, there will be contention among
The August issue, with its excellent experts. The main source of "junk sci
article on maglev, also reported in "50 ence" is from those such as Huber who Al/ letters to the editor may be edit
and 100 Years Ago" that on July 4, make blanket pronouncements. ed for length and clarity. Because of
1892, the Empire State Express made As a pediatrician and child psychia the volume of mail, letters cannot be
the 81-mile run from Rochester to Syr trist with more than 20 years of field acknowledged individual/yo Unsolicited
acuse in 74 minutes. Amtrak now has experience, I have seen at firsthand the manuscripts must be accompanied by a
a train of the same name, and its effects denied by Huber. I fail to see stamped, self-addressed envelope.


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March 23, 1992
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50 AND 100 YEARS AGO
NOVEMBER 1942 nence-lived on to 69.3 years. Thus the the Burma road, to Northern Africa, and
price of success proves to be about five to other fighting fronts."
"Each week in The Journal of the years of a doctor's life."
American Medical Association there is a
long series of obituary notices of de "The Germans were the first to grasp
ceased doctors. Each notice lists the the tremendous possibilities of the the
dead doctor's life attainments. Natu ory that greater mobility in both offen
rally, some of these notices are long, sive and defensive warfare could be se NOVEMBER 1892
some of medium length, others short, cured by transporting troops and weap
and it happens that, for reasons of ap ons by airplane. Their Junkers 52, a "As is well known, it is the common
pearance, the printer arranges the no relatively slow and plodding but roomy belief that the hairs of mammals, the
tices in order of length-longer ones and reliable type of plane, has been car feathers of birds, and the scales of rep
preceding shorter ones. It occurred to a rying supplies, weapons, infantry, and tiles are all epidermal structures of a
Brooklyn doctor that this weekly list, parachutists to Norway, to Libya, to the fundamentally identical character, but
thus arranged, might provide an op Russian front. Our own Air Corps, or after an elaborate study of the growth
portunity to determine 'what price suc let us say rather our Army, was a little and development of these several pro
cess' in medicine. So he analyzed 30 slow in realizing the potentialities of air tective coverings, Dr. F. Maurer, of Hei
such weekly lists and found that the troop transport. Today, however, thanks delberg, now arrives at the conclusion
average age of death of the first ten in part to the conversion of some splen that they are homologous with the sen
doctors on them was 64.6 years, while did transport airplanes, we are as well sory points in the skin of the amphibia,
the last ten doctors-they who had equipped as any; an endless stream of or, at least, that they are outgrowths
served faithfully but not gained promi- cargo ships is flying to China to replace from these points as bases. Dr. Maurer
thus concludes that his researches con
firm that the mammalia are derived di
rectly from the amphibia, and have not
had any reptilian ancestors."
"An unfinished obelisk in the quar

ries at Syene shows the mode in which
the ancients separated these mono
liths from the native rock. In a sharp
ly cut groove marking the boundary
of the stone are holes evidently de
signed for wooden wedges. After these
had been firmly driven into the holes,
the groove was filled with water. The
wedges swelled and cracked the gran
ite throughout the length of the groove.
The block was pushed forward upon
rollers from the quarries to the edge of
the Nile, where it was surrounded by a
large timber raft. It lay by the river side
until the next inundation floated the
raft and conveyed the obelisk to the
city where it was to be set up. There, by
means of rollers, levers, and ropes, the
obelisk was gradually hoisted into an
upright position."
"In the opening of the telephone line

between New York and Chicago as giv
en in our last number, Prof. Bell was
photographed by flashlight while talk
ing with Mr. William H. Hubbard, at Chi
cago, a distance of nearly 1,000 miles.
Our illustration, taken from the Elec
trical Review, is reproduced from the
flashlight photograph and is interesting
historically as showing the advances
made in both sciences, telephony and
Alexander Bell, calling long-distance photography."


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SCIENCE AND THE CITIZEN
Declassified
Russian geophysicists seek
new ways of making a living
N
ot so long ago a Russian spy
plane bristling with detectors fly
ing into the heart of the U.S. air
defense network would have sent fight
er jets scrambling. But this past Sep
tember 12, radar operators shrugged
when a massive Ilyushin 76-MD "flying
laboratory" touched down at Denver's
Stapleton airport, just a few minutes'
flying time from, among other places,
the North American Aerospace Defense
headquarters in Cheyenne Mountain
and the spy-satellite station at Buckley
Air National Guard Base.
In case any further proof was need
ed that the cold war is over, the 3 2 sci
entists and 14 crew members, many
of them former employees of the Sovi
et military complex, then threw open
the cargo doors, brought out the vodka MILITARY AND CNILlAN U.S. scientists examine Russian Ilyushin 76-MD "flying
and invited all comers to crawl over the laboratory" at Denver's Stapleton airport. Photo: Harry R. Olsson.
huge craft and inspect its gear. Cam
eras welcome.
The landmark visit was the culmi cently were classified. Although surveys also ran into "remnants of the cold
nation of a seven-month effort by War of minute variations in the earth's mag war" in the State Department. The day
ren T. Dewhurst, chief geophysicist netic and gravitational fields can be before the airplane left Moscow, many
of the coastal and geodetic survey of used to locate minerals, oil and gas, of the crew and scientists still had not
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric magnetic-field disturbances over the received visas to enter the U.S.
Administration (NOAA). Dewhurst has ocean can also reveal the presence of Once on the ground at Stapleton, the
been forging links with his colleagues submarines. Gravity-field maps can be Russian scientists spent the next four
in the former evil empire for over a used for accurate targeting and can pin days at the Colorado School of Mines
year and first saw the flying laborato point underground caverns that conceal making sales pitches to U.S. geophysi
ry this past February at the Gromov missiles. cists-and to sharp-eyed military types
Flight Testing Institute near Moscow. The magnetometers on the specially from places like the Naval Surface War
It was then, Dewhurst says, that he modified Ilyushin are of military deSign, fare Center and the Defense Mapping
conceived of bringing it to the U.S. as according to Harthill, who says the craft Agency. With military support drying
an advertisement for the Geophysical is "baSically a Soviet military antisub up, the Russians were unabashed about
Technology Transfer Initiative that he marine warfare plane." The four-jet en making their appeals. "We have the ex
was planning with Norman Harthill, a gine aircraft, which has a range of 8,200 perience, we have the means, we have
geophysicist at the Colorado School kilometers and can accommodate 40 the desire," said Musiniantz, winding
of Mines in Golden, and Serguej N. Do tons of cargo, carries synthetic-aperture up an overview of the flying laborato
maratskij, a researcher at the St. Peters imaging radar as well as gravimeters. ry. "What we are a little short of is the
burg Institute for Terrestrial Magnetism, NOAA'S fleet of ships and small aircraft money."
Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propaga carry no such instruments. "Our ships Among the systems the Russians de
tion. Tomas G. Musiniantz of the Insti go out and measure depth, and that's scribed was a powerful LillAR (a laser
tute for Precise Instrumentation in Mos it," Dewhurst says ruefully. based radar that can be used to see be
cow suggested enlisting Russian scien Dewhurst says he does not embar low the sea surface) that employs a 300-
tists for the trip to Colorado. rass his Russian counterparts by ask kilowatt copper-vapor laser. According
Dewhurst, Harthill and Domaratskij ing them about military missions they to Viktor I. Feigels of the Institute of
are convinced that U.S. and Russian may have flown. "If this collaboration Fine Mechanics and Optics in St. Peters
geophysicists have a lot to teach one an is mutually acceptable, we spould allow burg, the system can provide useful in
other because they have worked sepa it to happen," he says. The U.S. military formation on depths down to 20 or 3 0
rately for decades. The principal obsta was not so eager, however. Securing meters. Jon Davis o f the Naval Air War
cle to cooperation has been the sensing landing rights for the Ilyushin in Den fare Center in Warminster, Pa., says the
technologies they use, which until re- ver took a major effort, and Dewhurst U.S. Navy might cooperate with the Rus-
16 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1 992


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sians on LIDAR work "because I think Paradise Lost? examples, were recorded around the
world. And in the past two years the
they are a little better than we are in
this area." Microbes mount a comeback U.S. medical establishment has been
Many of the u.s. observers agreed that as drug resistance spreads shaken by the emergence of multidrug
the Russians' relatively unsophisticated resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis, a
electronic equipment had forced them scourge that many physicians assumed
O
to solve problems in ingenious ways. nly a few years after penicil had been quashed in developed coun
They described many techniques for im lin moved into widespread use tries. During 199 1, tuberculosis resis
proving airborne gravity surveys, for ex during the 1940s came the first tance to one or more drugs was report
ample. "They have outstanding theore reports that some bacteria had grown ed in 36 states.
ticians," says Richard]. Wold of GWR resistant. And as more powerful anti Resistance of TB to drugs represents
Instruments in San Diego, which man biotics such as streptomycin, tetracy an alarming threat because, unlike many
ufactures gravimeters. Some observers cline and chloramphenicol were devel other serious infections, "the principal
were disappointed. Although the visitors oped, bacteria evolved resistance to risk behavior for acquiring TB infection
described on-board computing for pro them, too. Today bacteria and fungi that is breathing," state Barry R. Bloom and
cessing synthetic-aperture radar data, are resistant to once effective drugs are Christopher]. L. Murray in a recent is
"they didn't show any really nice syn causing deaths and driving up the medi sue of Science. Bloom, an investigator
thetic-aperture images," says Andrew cal costs all over the world. at the Albert Einstein College of Medi
Ochadlick of the Naval Air Warfare Cen Drug resistance was mostly ignored cine in the Bronx, and Murray, who
ter. But he added, "I'm going to learn to in the U.S. until recently because physi works at the Harvard School of Public
speak Russian." cians believed they had access to all Health, POrrlt out that TB is the leading
The Golden conference was the first the antibiotics they might need, says cause of death from infectious disease
formal event under the rubric of the Stuart B. Levy, a researcher at Tufts Uni worldwide, with eight million new cas
Geophysical Transfer Initiative. The next versity. They were wrong. Drug resis es and 2.9 million deaths every year.
will be a conference in 1993 in St. Peters tance has been found in virtually every In the U.S., the number of TB cases
burg, where U.S. geophysicists will de type of microbe that has been fought has been increasing since 1985, with
scribe their research. In addition, Dew with antibiotics. That covers everything more than 26,000 reported in 199 1.
hurst and Domaratskij have created a from food-borne pathogens such as And in New York City, one third of all
permanent foundation in St. Petersburg Salmonella to sexually transmitted or cases tested in 199 1 were resistant to
dedicated to joint geophysics projects. ganisms such as Neisseria gonorrhoeae. one or more drugs. Uncomplicated TB
Although the foundation is brand Surgical patients are now dying in U.S. can be cured with a six-month course
new, Dewhurst already has one proj hospitals from wound infections caused of antibiotics, but the outlook for multi
ect for it in mind. He is trying to drum by enterococcal bacteria resistant to drug-resistant cases is bleak. Those re
up support for acquiring (he is sketchy several different drugs. "These are peo sistant to two or more major antibiot
on financial details) a Russian "flying ple who should probably not be dying," ics have a fatality rate of around 50 per
boat" designated the Beriev A-40. Two says David Shlaes, a physician at the cent; patients infected with the human
prototypes already exist. The aircraft Veterans Administration Medical Cen immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the caus
would be equipped with gravimetric, ter in Cleveland. ative agent of AIDS, succumb in only
LIDAR and other instruments and would Although an infection that is resis a few weeks. According to Bloom and
be used for surveys in polar regions tant to one drug can often be cured by Murray, attempts to treat people who
or anywhere else. The airplane's long Switching to a different (and usually are HIV positive may have permitted the
range and amphibious capability make more expensive) one, increasing num emergence of M. tuberculosis resistant
it the ideal choice, Dewhurst and Do bers of pathogens are resistant to sever to virtually all anti-TB drugs. The dis
maratskij believe, because it could sur al drugs. During the 1980s, outbreaks ease is also spreading rapidly in people
vey from the air and then land at sea of multidrug-resistant dysentery, chol not infected with HIV.
to make "ground truth" measurements. era and pneumonia, to name just a few Many drug-resistant bacteria have
The researchers already have one survey
mapped out: the recent no-man's-land
of the Bering Strait, where, they agree,
there is a tunnel just waiting to be built. How Tuberculosis May Develop Drug Resistance
The stretch is a mere 60 miles-with an
SUSCEPTIBLE
island in the middle-and the water is
shallow, Dewhurst says. 1. Susceptibility gene (red) 2. Drug isoniazid (blue) is 3. The active form of
In the meantime, Dewhurst would be on plasmid (circle) produces harmless until enzyme isoniazid destroys the
enzyme (green). breaks it into active form. bacterial cell.
delighted to see the llyushin conducting
geophysical surveys in the U.S. Its on
board LIDARs make it ideal for air- and
water-quality monitoring, Harthill points
out. And to anyone who finds incredible
the idea of the U.S. Air Force's allowing
the multipurpose survey airplane to fly
four-kilometer-spaced parallel lines over
Kansas with its sensors switched on,
RESISTANT
Dewhurst has a ready reply. "A month Susceptibility gene is deleted by mutation, and
ago the military wasn't keen about it so no enzyme is produced. Isoniazid remains
landing in Colorado," he says, gestur in inactive form, and the cell survives.
ing to the airplane on the tarmac. "But
here it is." - Tim Beardsley


perfect addition
or an ideal gift for friends, family, and colleagues.
It's aJJn.e- pf;"tf'kliul look at every bo4Y.
,y
", < ' .

genes that enable them to produce en technology of the Pharmaceutical Man Thomas F. O'Brien and John M. Stelling
zymes that either destroy particular an ufacturers Association, places the blame of Harvard Medical School have devel
tibiotics or pump them out of the bac on the "dismal" amount being spent on oped a data management program that
terial cells. Because bacteria pass genes drug resistance by the National Insti helps microbiology laboratories track
not only between members of the same tutes of Health. According to John R. drug-resistant organisms. That effort,
species but also between different spe La Montagne of the National Institute which includes posting reports on an
cies, genes that confer resistance to a of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the international network, is supported by
widely used drug spread rapidly. amount that institute spent on research the World Health Organization.
Until this summer, the mechanism related to drug resistance in 199 1 was WHO is now helping several coun
of drug resistance to TB was unknown. $9.7 million, up from $6.7 million in tries set up TB control programs. In the
Ying Zhang of the Hammersmith Hos 1988. But Shlaes says much of that to U.S., the CDC is starting to monitor
pital in London and his colleagues dis tal is only peripherally related to the drug resistance in different organisms,
covered the basis for resistance to a TB practical problem. And although the including M. tuberculosis. Dixie E. Snider
drug used frequently in treatment, iso NIH has sponsored two workshops on of the CDC says the agency wants even
niazid. SurpriSingly, resistance in this drug resistance since 1989, the agency tually to obtain data on drug suscepti
instance seems to result from the loss declined to support a major new re bility for every case of TB in the U.S.,
of a gene, one on a plasmid, or loop of search effort. but that monitoring system is not yet
DNA. The gene probably allows the TB "If people are going to take it seri running.
bacterium to process isoniazid into an ously, the NIH and the Centers for Dis In the meantime, physicians could
active form. That finding suggests some ease Control will have to rebudget," minimize the spread of drug resistance
promising avenues for research. But de Bloom says. He charges that the CDC by not using antibiotics that are more
veloping a new drug usually takes at knew of some cases of drug-resistant powerful than necessary, says George Ja
least seven years, Shlaes points out. TB more than two years ago and con coby, an infectious disease specialist at
Yet drug companies have been scal sidered-but rejected-a program to Massachusetts General Hospital. About
ing back research on antibiotics and eliminate it. "If that had been done, we half of all antibiotic use in the U.S. is
other antimicrobials and turning in would have the infrastructure we need inappropriate, asserts Calvin M. Kunin,
stead to anticancer and antiviral drugs. now," he says. "The tragedy is you have who chairs a committee on antibiot
So when drug-resistant TB first came to to have skeletons on the front page of ics for the Infectious Disease Society of
national attention in 199 1, there was the newspapers before people can be America. Many prescribed antibiotics,
no U.S. source for two TB drugs that persuaded something must be done." he says, are either more powerful than
were formerly used to treat the dis Physicians are setting up informal necessary, used for longer than neces
ease, streptomycin and para-amino sal networks for monitoring antibiotic re sary or not needed at all. "It's a cacoph
icylate sodium. sistance. Levy is seeking NIH funding ony," Kunin declares. "We have a long
Thomas L. Copmann, head of bio- for a voluntary international data base. way to go." -Tim Beardsley
Bringing Science to the Bottom Line
T
he enthusiasm in Washington for steering research National Science Board, the NSF'S governing body, the
toward the bottom line has reached the National board declined to approve that kind of mission shift with
Science Foundation (NSF), the traditional mainstay out first getting it blessed by an outside group. The com
of science unsullied by commercialism. Walter E. Massey, mission is being asked to finish its report by November, so
the foundation's director, appointed a blue-ribbon com that whichever administration is in the White House next
mission in September to "examine ways for NSF to accept year will have a blueprint for action. The group's recom
an enhanced role in fostering connections between re mendations are likely to find receptive ears on the Nation
search and technology." The group's industrial emphaSis al Science Board and in Congress. Both bodies have called
is underscored by the choice of Robert Galvin, former for more applied research.
chief executive officer of Motorola, to serve as co-chair The NSF'S navel contemplation comes hard on the heels
man with William H. Danforth, chancellor of Washington of a similar effort to develop a strategic plan for the Na
U niversity. tional l nstitutes of Health, the principal avenue of federal
Some advocates of basic research are unwilling to give support for basic biomedical research. The NIH, with a bud
up without a fight. The American Physical Society is get of some $9 billion, has traditionally supported a mix
"deeply concerned " that the NSF may be wavering in its ture of pure basic research and studies aimed at specific
commitment to basic science, according to spokesman diseases. Development of the NIH plan, which director Ber
Robert L. Park. Physicists plan to make their obj ections nadine P. Healy initiated more than a year ago, engendered
loud and clear. apprehension and outright hostility from some research
Massey has been pushing for changes at the NSF for ers. NIH sources say Healy's plan has also run into trouble
more than a year. He cites the end of the cold war, the in with her political taskmasters at the Department of Health
creasingly international character of science and the and Human Services, who view it as an attempt to j ustify
downturn in U . S . corporate research as reasons why the further increases in the NIH'S budget.
agency, which has a budget of almost $2 billion, should According to some NIH prognosticators, the long-gestat
reexamine its operation. Massey says he favors giving the ing strategic plan will be published, with suitable bows to
agency "an expanded portfolio of programs that would be academic freedom as well as the need for commercial de
integrated with ongoing activities and closely aligned with velopment, and then ignored. The commission on the NSF
industry and other government agencies. " will, presumably, be aiming to ensure that fate does not be
When Massey presented his ideas this past June to the fall Massey's plan. -Tim Beardsley


Cells for Jerry's Kids
Experts argue the merits
and safety of human trials
T
his past Labor Day on the Muscu
lar Dystrophy Association ( MDA)
telethon, Jerry Lewis rendered
AN INVITATION his annual update of the encouraging
TO SUBMIT NOMINATIONS
progress being made against crippling
FOR THE 1994 KING FAISAL INTERNATIONAL PRIZE
illnesses. What viewers might not have
IN MEDICINE AND SCIENCE
guessed is that one area of therapeutic
investigation-a form of cell transplan
The General Secretariat of the King Faisal International Prize is pleased to invite
tation called myoblast transfer-has
universities and specialist research centers throughout the world to nominate
sharply divided muscular dystrophy re
qualified candidates for:
searchers. Although some regard myo
the King Faisal International Prize in Medicine in the topic of: blast transfer as a safe technique, oth
MEDICAL APPLICATIONS OF GENETIC ENGINEERING ers worry that experiments of dubious
and scientific value are exposing young pa
the King Faisal International Prize in Science in the topic of: tients to unwarranted hazards.
"People jumped too fast from animal
MATHIA TICS
models into humans," says Henry F.
Nominations should meet the following requirements: Epstein of the Baylor College of Medi
I.
cine, a scientific adviser to the MDA. In
Nominees must have accomplished an outstanding academic work on the
Prize topic, benefitting mankind and enriching human progress. a recent letter to Science, he and more
than two dozen other muscle research
2. Submitted work must be original and published.
ers and physicians called for a general
3. Only recognized educational or research institutions may make nominations.
moratorium on myoblast transfers in
4. Each nomination should include: humans until certain basic questions
a) a typed list of the nominee's nominated works. have been resolved in animals.
b) a typed C V detailing the nominee's academic background, experience
. "I truly believe their letter is propa
and published works.
ganda by molecular geneticists intend
c) ten copies of each submitted work.
ed to smear cell transplantation," huffs
d) three recent colour photos 4"x6".
Peter K. Law of the Cell Therapy Re
e) the nominee's mailing address including:
(1) office address, telephone number, telex & fax.
search Foundation in Memphis. Law has
(2) home address and telephone number. reported the greatest successes with
5.
myoblast transfer-and his work has
Nominations will be evaluated by a Selection C ommittee consisting of highly
drawn the greatest fire. "They are op
recognized specialists in the topic.
posed to it for fear that myoblast trans
fer will become the therapy instead of
6. More than one person may share the prize.
7. The nominee's submitted work will not be accepted if: gene therapy," he says.
a) it has been previously awarded a prize by any international organization',
The disease at the center of the con
b) it is a university degree;
troversy is Duchenne's muscular dys
c) it is unpublished.
trophy, a genetic disorder that strikes
8. The nomination will not be accepted if:
about one in every 3,500 boys and caus
a)
t is nominated by individuals or political parties;
es progressive wasting of the muscles.
b) It does not meet all the prize conditions;
Those afflicted with the disease begin
c) it is received after the announced date.
to weaken sometime after the age of
9. The prize consists of:
five and gradually lose all strength in
a) a certificate in the winner's name containing an abstract of the work
their limbs; they usually die by age 20
that qualifed him/her for the prize;
when their diaphragms or hearts fail.
b) a gold medal;
c) a sum of three hundred and fifty thousand Saudi Riyals
In the mid-1980s geneticists learned
' that Duchenne's dystrophy is caused
( approximately US $93,333 ).
10. ?
T e winner(s) name(s) will be announced in February 1994, and the prize
by a defective gene for dystrophin, a
protein essential to muscle function.
will be awarded in an official ceremony at a later date.
Since then, investigators have sought
11. The latest date for receiving the complete nomination requirements will be
to rescue the sick muscles by restor
September 1, 1993.
ing the missing protein. Molecular bi
12. No nomination papers or works will be returned to the senders, whether
ologists, for example, have been trying
or not the nominee was awarded the prize.
to develop a gene therapy that would
13. All correspondence must be sent by registered airmail to: insert working dystrophin genes into
the muscles.
The General Secretariat, King Faisal International Prize
22476, Riyadh 11495 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Myoblast transfer is an alternative ap
P.O Box
Tel: 4652255, 404667 PRIZE SJ, Fax: 4658685 Cable JAEZAH
Tlx: proach in which whole cells, not just
genes, are used. Experiments on rodents
suggested that if cells called myoblasts
are injected into dystrophic muscles,


they can sometimes save the unhealthy
muscle fibers by fusing with them and
making dystrophin. In 1989 George Kar
pati of the Montreal Neurological Insti
tute, Law (who was then at the Univer
sity of Tennessee at Memphis) and oth
ers initiated trials on human subjects.
To date, more than 60 boys have re
ceived myoblast transfers.
Generally, the results of those ex
periments have been underwhelming:
few of the subjects have demonstrat
ed any improvement. This past March
in Cell Transplantation, though, Law
announced the best results yet. Using
a patented technique, he and his col
leagues injected myoblasts into the leg
muscles of dystrophic boys and lat
er measured their functional changes. rJi3
Law's group claims that in the 13 boys
tested so far, 81 percent of the treated UNCONVENTIONAL WISDOM
muscles became stronger or did not They're The Mclaughlin Group. Each with a view that's contentious
lose strength. and contagious. (clockwise from left) Jack Germond, Clarence Page,
Many muscular dystrophy research John Mclaughlin, Eleanor Clift, Morton Kondracke and Fred Barnes.
ers contend that Law's study is serious Made possible by a grant from GE.
ly flawed. Their primary complaint is
that Law did not use a control group to
test whether the gains are illusory. But The McLaughlin Group
Law insists that medical ethics prevent Check your local listing for station and time.
ed him from running the kinds of con
trols his critics wanted.
Law says he did not inject a placebo We bring good things to life.
into patients because, in his experience,
such injections accelerate muscle de
generation. He also did not inject myo
blasts into just one leg of a boy and
use the other leg as a control because
the imbalance in strength might cause
the boys to fall and hurt themselves.
The only acceptable control, Law says,
was to compare a muscle against itself
after the myoblast injections. He likens
the comparison to the before-and-after
pictures used in commercials for bald
ness remedies.
"An experiment without controls is
not an experiment," Epstein responds.
He argues that pharmaceutical compa
nies have established statistical meth
ods for conducting drug trials that pro
tect human subjects without invalidat Why wait for a professional weather report when you can have it at your fingertips
ing the control procedures. Moreover, anytime you want? The Weather Monitor II offers the most complete state-of-the-art
a control was critical in Law's experi weather monitoring system with anemometer, external temperature sensor, and easy-to
ments because some data suggest that read LCD display. Also, be sure to ask about our Weatherlink, which allows you to
record, summarize, and graph weather information on your IBM@compatible Pc.
cyclosporine, the immunosuppressive
drug given to the boys to prevent them FEATURES INCLUDE: -Tirne & Date -Outside Humidity
from rejecting the transplanted myo -Inside & Outside Temps -Alarms & Dew Point Option
blasts, can cause a transient increase in -Barometer -Instant Metric Conversions -Rainfall Option
the strength of muscles. -Wind Speed & Direction -Inside Humidity -Optional PC Interface
Law's is not the only work on myo -Wind Chill -Highs & Lows with
Time & Date

blast transfer that has been criticized.
This past April a team headed by Hel
en M. Elau of the Stanford Universi
ty School of Medicine published a re
port in Nature confirming the ability of
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phin for sick muscles. Yet Eric P. Hoff
man of the University of Pittsburgh D A V I SiN ST RUM EN T S 3465 DIABLO AVE., HAYWARD, CA 94545 5C323 B
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1992 23


School of Medicine, one of the discov
erers of dystrophin, argues that Blau's
Sometimes the PREDICTABLE results may be less than they seem: a
phenomenon called genetic reversion
could cause sick muscle fibers to look
THINGS IN LIFE are the most as though they were making dystro
phin. In any event, Hoffman says, no
more than about 1 percent of the fibers
unexpectedly REASSURING. seemed to have been helped by the
treatment, an efficiency too low to have
... therapeutic meaning. "Is this really suc

.
cess?" he asks.
A DEPENDABLE, RELIABLE source of monthly income. If
Blau stands by the conclusions of
that sounds like something you'd find predictably reassuring, ask her paper. She emphasizes that, un
like Law's experiment, hers was a con
+
your financial adviser about the benefits of a Nuveen Tax-Free'' Unit
trolled, double-blind study; she also ar
Trust. And rest assured, the return on your Nuveen investment gues that her methods ruled out false
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will remain the same until bonds in the portfolio mature, are called

Blau believes the petition for a morato
or a r e s o l d .t Bu t p l e a s e , r equ e s t a p ro s p e c t u s w i t h m o r e rium is misguided but acknowledges
that because the efficiency of the myo
complete information (including charges and expenses), and read it
blast transfer was "surprisingly low,"
carefully before you invest or send money. Or call us toll-free at ... her group is deliberating about wheth
er human experimentation "is the way
1-800-262-3423. to proceed at this time."
Defenders of myoblast transfer exper
NUVEEN iments point out that, according to the

reports, no boy has ever been harmed
Quality Tax-Free Investments Since 1898. by the procedure. Epstein is not reas
sured. "It's extremely inconsistent with
*Income may be sub;ect to state and local taxes. Save additional taxes with Nuveen state trusts which all previous experience with cyclospor
are also exempt from state and local income taxes. tUnit trusts have a fluctuating redemption value.
ine that no side effects have been ob
served," he says, adding that those side
effects include kidney failure and can
cer. "We have no idea whether risks
could be uncovered," he says. He and
Puzzled? Want to
brush up
Hoffman both note that myoblast trans
fer is impractical for fixing what ac
tually kills Duchenne's dystrophy pa
tients-the degeneration of the heart
ona and diaphragm.
foreign The call for a moratorium, however
earnest, carries no official weight. The
language? Food and Drug Administration has not
yet asserted any jurisdiction over cell
W ith Audio-Forum's
transplantation. The National Institutes
intermediate and advanced
of Health are not currently funding any
materials, it's easy to maintain and
sharpen your foreign-language skills. myoblast transfer experiments in hu
Besides intermediate and advanced mans. The MDA, which has funded ex
audio-cassette courses - most developed periments, remains open-minded on the
for the U.S. State Department - we offer subject. "The MDA is in the business of
Then you'll love our foreign-language mystery dramas, finding causes and cures," asserts Don
Collection of Classic Games! dialogs recorded in Paris, games, ald S. Wood, the MDA's director of sci
This collection offers you games music, and many other helpful mate ence and technology. "The association
of strategy, skill, and chance - rials. And if you want to learn a new would never cut off support to an area
all for $34.99. For use with language, we have beginning courses as long as it held promise."
IBM PCs running Microsoft for adults and for children.
In Wood's opinion, both human and
Wmdows 3.0 or higher. We offer introductory and advanced
animal experiments have value today.
FEATURES: materials in most of the world's
He sees the conflict over myoblast
*Beleaguered Castle (Solitaire) languages: French, German, Spanish,
transfer as part of the "growing pains"
*Morris (Board Game) Italian, Japanese, Mandarin, Greek,
*Pattems (Puzzles) Russian, Arabic, Korean, and others. 230
all new technologies face. "It makes ev
*And More! courses in 79 languages. Our 20th year. eryone work that much harder at get
Available at local software Call 1-800-551-6300 for FREE 52- ting the right answer," he says. But he
distributors, or call page catalog, or write: also notes, "You must be humble in the
1-800-831-7611 face of this. You must go very cautious
Star aUDIC':CaUm ly. God forbid you should do anything
TCraphicsN Room 2627.96 Broad Street, to take even one day off the life of
The Game CraftersN Guilford, CT 06437 (203) 453-9794 a child." -John Rennie


Stellar Bells and shimmies," explains Steven D. Ka
waler of Iowa State University. Those
PG 1 159-035 oscillates at 1 25 frequen
cies having periods from 385 to 1,000
Quivering stars bare waves compress the outer layers of the seconds long. Hidden within those fre
star as they travel, causing certain re quencies is a bounty of information
their inner secrets
gions to grow hotter and hence to radi about the physical conditions of the star.
ate more intensely. Oscillations there The star's rotation, for example, caus
T
he discovery that the sun rings fore show up as complicated but well es oscillations that move west to east
like a bell, made early in the ordered changes in the brightnesses along the star's surface to exhibit a
1960s at the California Institute of white dwarfs. In the most extreme slightly different frequency than do os
of Technology, heralded the new field cases, a star's luminosity can vary by cillations moving from east to west.
of helioseismology. Astronomers who 30 percent. The magnitude of the frequency split
watch oscillations of the solar surface One of the most crucial elements of indicates that the star completes a rota
can measure conditions deep within the stellar oscillation observation is that tion every 1.38 days. That information
sun, in the same way that seismologists the record must be continuous. In 1988 provides clues regarding the evolution
monitor earthquake waves to study the R. Edward Nather of the University of of red giants into white dwarfs. "This
interior of the earth. In the past few Texas and a number of collaborators is the first piece of data on what the
years, researchers have taken that re established the Whole Earth Telescope, cores of red giants do," Kawaler says.
markable achievement a step further: a loose association of astronomers Asteroseismology is also illuminating
they are deducing the internal struc around the world dedicated to main other important aspects of stellar evo
tures of distant stars from subtle vi taining round-the-clock coverage of os lution theory by revealing the compo
brations on their surfaces, a technique cillating stars. The latest version of the sition of white dwarfs. Places where a
called asteroseismology. Whole Earth Telescope, which began star's temperature, density or composi
By far the greatest successes in this work on September 2 1, incorporates 13 tion suddenly change act to reflect and
field have come from observations of observing sites, the largest number yet. trap internal waves. Seismologists ex
white dwarf stars, the compact rem Some of the most impressive results ploited the same phenomenon to de
nants of sunlike stars. Instabilities in from the enterprise concern an extreme duce that the earth is divided into a
the outer layers of some dwarfs set ly hot white dwarf known only as P G core, mantle and crust. Similarly, Winget
up waves that travel along a star's sur 1 159-035. A group led b y D . E . Winget and his colleagues succeeded in mea
face so that "the whole star shakes of the University of Texas reported that suring the trapped oscillations to de-
Flotsam Footwear
S
erendipity often comes to the aid of science. An ama the peripatetic shoes could provide a calibration point for
teur astronomer spots a nova, a fisherman captures a computer models of ocean surface currents.
coelacanth in his net, a pair of oceanographers map Ingraham then ran a computer hindcast to retrace the
the ocean currents by monitoring the advance of an acci path of the shoes. It was "a perfect little get-together," as
dental shoe spill . . . . he describes it. His model showed that the 1 9 9 0 path of
A shoe spill? On May 2 7, 1 9 90, a freighter was buffeted drift was much farther south than usual. In certain other
by a severe gale in the northeast Pacific Ocean, and five years, such as 1 9 82 , ocean currents associated with warm
shipping containers of Nike footgear went over the side. water in the tropical Pacific would have caused most of
Like a fleet of message-bearing bottles, the 80,0 00 sneak the shoes to drift toward Alaska.
ers began washing ashore in British Columbia, Washing The scientific value of the spill has by no means dried
ton and Oregon in early 1 9 9 1 . up. Some of the shoes recently reached Hawaii, and oth
When Curtis C. Ebbesmeyer of Evans-Hamilton, a marine ers "should be reaching Japan shortly," Ebbesmeyer notes.
instruments company in Seattle, and W. James Ingraham,Jr., Any additional shoes that wash ashore will help the re
of the National Marine Fisher searchers as they expand their
ies Service heard news reports study of ocean surface drift to
of the shoe spill, they immedi the western Pacific.
ately realized they had stum The great shoe spill of 1 9 9 0
bled across a potentially useful has also had some practical
ocean drift experiment. "I tried effects. Artist Steve McLeod
to find the scientists who were of Oregon has earned $5 6 8
tracking down the shoes, but by collecting and selling the
nobody was," Ebbesmeyer re seafaring footwear. And both
calls. "It surprised me. " Ebbesmeyer and Ingraham
Ebbesmeyer contacted his are sporting their own recov
friend Ingraham, who moni ered Nikes. Ebbesmeyer rec
tors surface currents to de ommends giving the shoes a
termine their effects on sal hot-water wash before wear
mon migration. With the ea ing them; a long period of
ger assistance of a network of drifting may be good for sci
beachcombers, the research ence, but it is bad for comfort.
ers recovered about 1 ,3 0 0 of "The shoes are real stiff after
the shoes. Because the location FOOTLOOSE DRIFTER recently washed ashore in two years in the ocean," he
of the spill was well known, California_ Photo: Jackie Cunningham. reports. -Corey S. Powell


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Scientific American 1 1 /92

termine the interior structure of P G According to theoretical models, the brightness of such stars by only a few
1 159-035. I t seems t o have a three-lay coolest known white dwarfs seem to parts per million, however. A group led
er composition: a blanket of hydrogen be about 10 billion years old, anoth by Timothy M. Brown of the High Al
atop helium and carbon shells. er piece of evidence that the universe titude Observatory tentatively identi
More extensive observations will en cannot be only eight billion years old, fied oscillations on the star Procyon, but
able the researchers to deduce not only as some cosmological observations im he readily confesses that "there are a
the density of the various layers but ply. Kawaler reports that the observed frightening number of ways you can
their thicknesses as well. When applied rate of change in the oscillation peri get fooled." His group will make anoth
to a whole range of white dwarfs, that ods caused by cooling is "on the right er set of observations this winter to try
technique will make it possible to re time scale" expected for hot white to improve their level of certainty.
fine Signi ficantly the theory of the in dwarfs . He is still studying the signs of Meanwhile nobody is forgetting about
ternal transformations that occur as change on cooler stars-a rather diffi the most proximate star. The Global
stars evolve. cult task, since he is looking for an ef Oscillation Network Group, an inter
Another noteworthy application of fect amounting to "a few seconds over national grouping of six telescopes, will
asteroseismology is indicating the rate 15 years of data," he notes. So far as provide several years of continuous
at which white dwarfs cool. Such infor teroseismology shows that the theory observations of solar oscillations start
mation " will tell you how old the oldest is "right to a factor of two." ing in 1993. Helioseismology is already
white dwarfs are-that's our ultimate White dwarfs are particularly open to answering such seemingly imponder
goal," Nather says. Knowing the ages of the techniques of asteroseisomology, able questions as, What is the temper
the oldest dwarfs will reveal the min but astronomers are looking for oscilla ature at the core of the sun, and what
imum age of the Milky Way and also tions among all kinds of stellar popula drives the 2 2-year activity cycle? Nath
may make it possible to learn whether tions. Ideally, one would like to analyze er reflects philosophically on this kind
the galaxy formed all at once or if vari the vibrations of stable, middle-aged of work : "It's amazing that nature
ous parts coalesced at substantially dif stars and compare their properties with would allow us to do it, that it's possi
ferent times. those of the sun. Oscillations alter the ble at all." -Corey S. Powell
Who Were the Indo-Europeans?
D
id successive waves of Indo-European horsemen ing in thin air, right next to the warrior theory of Mari
begin to gallop from the steppes of southern Rus ja Gimbutas, an archaeologist at the U niversity of Califor
sia some 6 ,5 0 0 years ago, spreading their lan nia at Los Angeles. This time Sokal and his team analyzed
guage as they subjugated farmers between Greece and the genetic patterns of many different European popula
the Ganges? Or did the vast Indo-European family of lan tions so they could fit them into a family tree. Then they
guages expand from the Middle East beginning 2 ,5 0 0 compared that tree with one of 4 3 European languag
years earlier, when farmers moved outward i n search of es assembled by Merritt Ruhlen, a linguistic taxonomist.
land, swamping any foraging cultures in their path? The workers found a 0 . 1 4 correlation between genes and
Rather than resolving this prehistoric puzzle, a recent languages.
study of European genetic patterns by Robert R. Sokal and The researchers then estimated how much of that cor
his colleagues at the State University of New York at Stony relation could be explained by mere geographic distance,
Brook has failed to verify either theory. Neither can account a factor that differentiates genes and languages in tandem.
for the observed correlation between the languages and After holding geography constant, the workers found an
genes of Europe. average residual correlation between languages and genes
Sokal's team set out to test an earlier model that Albert of 0 . 0 6 . This residuum remains unexplained.
J Ammerman of the U niversity of Parma and l. l. Cavalli Sokal demonstrates the crux of the experiment by su
Sforza of Stanford U niversity had proposed to explain the perimposing first Renfrew's theory, then Gimbutas's, on a
spread of agriculture from the Fertile Crescent. The re map of Europe. Each theory appears as a set of arrows,
searchers argued that a genetic trend between the south placed with the help of Renfrew and Gimbutas. "If Ren
eastern and northwestern extremes of Europe was the frew's theory were true," Sokal says, "it should account for
vestige of a population boom occasioned by the invention the rest of the correlation, which should then drop to
of agriculture in the Fertile Crescent. In this view, farming zero. But there's no change. It's still 0 . 0 6 . The same is true
had been propagated less by cultural borrowing than by when you add Gimbutas-0 . 0 6 correlation. "
demographic replacement. In 1 9 87 Colin Renfrew of the Such small correlations may seem mere statistical stat
University of Cambridge applied the model to his analysis ic, but Sokal insists they are significant. "Not every genetic
of the archaeological record to explain the spread of Indo locus will differentiate during the origins of various popu
European languages. lations," he declares. "In a comparison of modern, racially
Last year the Stony Brook researchers mapped Euro diverse populations-Italians, Nigerians and Japanese
pean genetic patterns against the archaeological record of Italians differed from the other two populations by as
early farming cultures and confirmed the demographic much as 0. 2 in only 2 0. 4 percent of the cases. "
leg of the theory. At the end of the study, published in Na How, then, does Sokal account for the correlation? He
ture, the workers cautioned that further research was nec declines to offer a model but says he has an inkling of
essary to test the linguistic leg, which posits 1 0 postagri what might have happened. If geography cannot explain
cultural transitional areas where the Indo-European sub the concurrence of languages and genes, then both must
families differentiated into their present form. have begun to evolve in parallel in some other place, per
Now Sokal's latest study, published in the Proceedings haps outside of Europe. In that case, they must have
of the National Academy of Sciences, leaves that leg hang- come with immigrants as yet unknown. -Philip E. Ross


Desert Dynamics counting animals in natural or near
natural habitats is notoriously difficult.
centimeters below, to discourage the
kangaroo rats, deer mice and other ro
Competition is the rule And because field experiments are usu dents being studied from burrowing un
in complex ecosystems ally done with grants that last for only der them. A few plots were left undis
a year or two , most studies have been turbed. In some the experimenters ex
short. A study run by Jame s H . Brown, cluded larger rodents by making holes
T
o anyone who has watched birds a profe ssor at the University of New in the fence s that were too small for
j o s tling one another at a garden Mexico , is one of the few exceptions . them to get through. In other plots they
feeder, the idea that species com Brown is conducting a long-term inves removed different combinations of spe
pete for valuable resources might seem tigation of the interactions between ro cie s . Then the workers carefully docu
obvious. But strange to say, ecologists dents, birds and plants in the Chihua mented the numbers of various plants
have often disagreed about how im huan desert of southeastern Arizona. In and animals in the plots and watched
portant competition actually is in natu a recent report, Brown concludes there how they changed over time.
ral ecosystems. Some researchers argue is a persistent and steady competition In the plots that Brown and his col
that climatic factors such as tempera between species despite the importance leagues left alone, the eight desert ro
ture and the amount of rainfall are like of climatic effects on the numbers of dents that they studied varied strik
ly to be far more critical. Clashe s over individuals. ingly in their responses to changing en
food, according to this way of thinking, Brown and his collaborators started vironmental conditions. Some species
are significant only during hard time s, their experiments 15 years ago by fenc displayed a five-year repeated pattern
when there is a shortage of alternative ing off 24 plots, each 50 meters along that Brown links to the El Niflo South
foraging places. a side, in flat desert near Portal, Ariz. ern O scillation, a climatic cycle that
One reason the debate about compe The fences, made of wire mesh, extend causes heavy winter rain in the south
tition has gone on for so long is that 60 centimeters above ground and 20 western U.S. in some year s . But other
species showed no effect -even though
all the rodents feed on seeds, which
plants produce in greater numbers in
wet years than in dry years.
The studies indicate that it would
have been impos sible to predict how
each species would re spond. Brown
notes that his experiments provide no
support for the idea-beloved of biolo
gy textbooks-that ecological commu
nitie s reach equilibria appropriate to
their geographic region. Nature is not
so dull. In his experimental plots, equi
librium was the only thing that was nev
er present. Rather, he says , "commu
nity composition varied continuously
over time. "
The experimental removals o f particu
lar species from plots provided further
evidence of complex dynamic s even in
a relatively simple ecosystem. Removal
of a species, Brown says, can lead to cas
cading effects that take years to play
out. When he removed the three species
of kangaroo rats from several plots, for
example, he found that the habitat
changed dramatically over the course
of a few years. Several species of grass
e s colonized the areas between shrubs
and became far more abundant while
other, short grasses became rare.
Birds, like rodents, forage on seeds,
so it would not be surprising if remov
ing the rodents from a plot made it
more attractive to birds. But in fact
VEGETATION CHANGES markedly when

kangaroo rats are removed from an ex
perimental plot (to left of fence ) . After
five years, the annual Lesquerella gor
donii ( yellow flowers) is more common
(top). After a further eight years, tall pe
rennial and annual grasses dominate
(bottom). Photos: James H. Brown.
32 SCIENTIFIC AMERlCAN November 1992


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the opposite happens, Brown's studies Yet despite the complexity, a sophis sults . The Ariz ona desert might not
show. Birds forage less in plots that ticated statistical analysis proved that b e typical of other eco systems, for
have no rodents than they do in undis competitive interactions are still an im example. Neverthele s s , he notes , "our
turbed plots. Moreover, birds show a portant force. When Brown, together experiment is virtually unique in be
similar aversion to plots that have had with Mark L. Taper and Edward J Heske, ing of sufficient duration to assess
all the ants removed-even though ants, examined the collective effects of kanga long-term temporal variation in com
like birds and rodents, forage on seeds. roo rats on the other seed-eating ro petition." And in a paper submitted
Brown and his collaborators think ro dents in his plots over a long period, a to the j ournal Ecology, entitled "Con
dents and ants make plots more at clear signal emerged. The smaller ro stant Competition in a Variable En
tractive to birds by making trails and dents consistently forage by preference vironment, " Brown ' s conclusion about
creating areas of bare soil. Birds ap where the larger kangaroo rats do not. the role of competition is unambigu
parently avoided plots with denser veg And the effect was remarkably constant ous: "Interspecific competition plays a
etation because they would have to over time. maj or, sustained role in the structure
expend more effort to find the same Brown displays proper scientific cau and dynamics of this desert rodent
amount of food. tion about generalizing from his re- community." - Tim Beardsley
Kicking Chaos out of Lasers
B
y reputation, lasers emit "pure" light of homogeneous As the researchers began looking for dynamic controls to
wavelengths and consistent intensity. In fact, the in
stabilize chaos, they turned to a novel analog technique
tensity of light produced by some lasers often de called occasional proportional feedback control. Starting
velops chaotic fl uctuations. At the Georgia Institute of with a laser that emits light that fluctuates chaotically in in
Technology, Rajarshi Roy and his graduate students Zelda tensity, they sampled the signal at regular intervals. The
Gills and Christina Iwata are finding ways to tame lasers differences between those measured values and a collec
that are chaotically inclined. In the process, they have tion of reference values were then translated into tiny kicks
found they can increase the stable power output of cer that nudged the signal into periodic behavior.
tain lasers by 1 5 -fold. The control was successful-to a degree. Once the
The researchers work with a popular laser-a solid-state Georgia Tech researchers tried boosting the power input
neodymium-VAG laser, pumped, or powered, by another into their laser, they provoked another onset of chaos.
diode laser. For several years, workers have used such laHelp was at hand, however, in the form of recent theoreti
sers to produce short-wavelength green light by doubling cal work by Ira B. Schwartz and l oana A. Triandaf of the
the frequency (and halving the wavelength) of an infrared u . S. Naval Research Laboratory aimed at controlling un
laser with the help of a nonlinear "doubling " crystal. stable orbits.
Such frequency doubling is nonetheless plagued by the By using error-correcting codes, Schwartz and Triandaf
so-called green problem: as infrared is converted to green,
had enabled algorithms that control local spurts of chaos
the intensity of the light spontaneously degenerates into to handle a wide range of changing parameter values. As
chaotic oscillations. Trying to boost the output of light by
a result, by tuning only one, easily accessible parameter
pumping in more energy also triggers chaos. (say, power input) , the mathematicians could track the be
Two years ago Roy and his team found they could damp havior of unstable orbits. Such an approach could conse
en such chaos by carefully orienting the doubling crystal,quently be used to compensate for random drift.
thereby skirting the odd polarization effects that caused By integrating the error-correcting codes into their con
the green problem. But what if parameters changed? trol program, Roy and his students managed to squeeze
out 1 5 times more stable light
than the laser had previously pro
duced for minutes at a time. The
controls, moreover, required little
additional energy-only 2 or 3 per
cent of the pumping power.
''The laser experiment shows off
the real power of applying math
ematics to nonlinear systems, "
observes Schwartz, who has al
ready filed a patent application.
He is looking forward to trying
out the approach in other arenas,
including orbiting satellite plat
forms, fl uid and combustion con
trol systems and cardiac pacemak
ers. Roy, on the other hand, will
continue to explore chaos in other
laser and fiber-optic systems. Un
INTENS IIY OF LASER, shown on oscilloscope screen as chaotic bursts over time, covering new sources of chaotic
is monitored by Georgia Institute of Technology graduate student Zelda Gills. behavior to tackle is not yet a
Photo: Margaret Barrett, Georgia Institute of Technology. problem. -Elizabeth Corcoran


PROFILE : KARL R. POPPER
The Intellectual Warrior theory of falsifiability is certainly not

scientific. It belongs to metascienc e . "
Popper used t o banish students from
I
am just about to meet the philoso Once seated, he keeps darting away his seminar for asking such an "idiotic"
pher Karl R . Popper, and I'm trying to forage for books or articles that can question, but he doesn't blame me for
to lower my expectations. Popper is buttress a point. Striving to dredge a doing so; some other philosopher, he
far and away the most influential philo name or date from his memory, he sugge sts, probably put me up to it.
sopher of modern science-among sci kneads his temples and grimaces as if " Ye s , " I lie.
entists if not other philosophers. He in agony. At one point, when the word I should have known better than to
is best known for his assertion that sci "mutation" briefly eludes him, he slaps try to trip up Karl Popper. For more
entific theories can never be proved his forehead with alarming force, shout than 70 years, he has been debating this
through experimental tests but only ing, " Terms, terms, terms ! " century's greatest ideas with this centu
disproved, or "falsified." In countless During one of his brief pauses for ry' s greatest minds. And criticism, after
articles and more than a all, is Popper's credo. He sees
dozen books-the latest, a criticism, and even conflict,
collection of essays, pub as e s sential for progres s of
lished just this year-he has all kinds. Just as scientists
also held forth on quantum approach the truth through
mechanics, determinism, the what he calls "conjecture and
theory of evolution, political refutation," so do species
totalitarianism and practical evolve through competition
ly every other issue of note . and societies through politi
But as Popper's assistant cal debate. A "human socie
ushers me into his house ty without conflict, " he once
south of London, she warns wrote, "would b e a society
me that "Sir Karl" ( he was not of friends but of ants."
knighted in 1965) is ex Popper was raised in Vien
hausted and will probably na in an intellectual house
only have the energy to talk hold ; his father was a profes
for an hour or so. He just sor of law and his mother
turned 90 in July, a month an accomplished musician.
ago, and he has already en He traces the genesis of his
dured endless interviews and philosophy, which he calls
congratulations. For the past critical rationalism, to his
several days, he has been 1 7th year. After a brief dal
toiling over two lecture s he liance with communism, he
intends to deliver when he became disgusted by the
receives the prestigious Ky dogmatism of Marxists, by
oto Prize, also called Japan's their utter certainty that
Nobel, in November. On top Marx was "right." At roughly
of that he has been ill and is the same time , he learned
still taking medication. that observations of a recent
Then Popper makes his solar eclipse had borne out a
entrance . Stooped, equipped prediction of a bizarre theo
with a hearing aid and sur ry of gravity proposed by a
prisingly short (I'd as sumed young physicist named Al
the author of such autocrat AUSTRIAN-BORN PHILOSOPHER Karl R. Popper has inveighed bert Einstein.
ic prose would be tall ), he against dogmatism in both science and politics throughout his The contrast compelled
is nonetheless as kinetic as career. Photo: David Levenson/Black Star. Popper to wonder : What ex-
a bantamweight boxer. He actly distinguished pseudo
brandishes an article I wrote for Scien breath, I mention his assertion that a scientific theories , such as Marxism or
tific American about how quantum me theory must be falsifiable to be consid astrology or even psychoanalysis, from
chanics is inspiring some physicists to ered scientific. Is this falsifiability theo scientific one s, such as Einstein' s theo
abandon their view of subatomic parti ry, I ask him, falsifiable? Popper places ry of relativity? The answer, he decid
cles as wholly obj ective entities. "I don't his hand over mine and transfixes me ed, was that the latter offered predic
believe a word of it, " he declares in a Vi with a radiant smile. "I don't want to tions speCific enough to be experimen
ennese-accented voice . "Subjectivism" hurt you," he says, his voice softening, tally tested-and hence falsified.
has no place in physic s , quantum or "but it's a silly question. " At the time, the philosophy of science
otherwise, he informs me. "Physics , " he Still smiling, he gently explains that was dominated by logical positivism,
exclaims, grabbing a book from a table "the function of falsifiability is to say which asserted that scientists can logi
and slamming it down, "is that ! " whether a theory is scientific or not. My cally infer certain limited truths about


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the world through repeated empirical
ob servations. Popper agreed with the
positivists that a theory can be true, but
he rej ected their contention that we can
ever know it is true. "We must distin
guish between truth," he says, "which
is objective and absolute, and certainty,
which is subj ective . "
Moreover, according t o Popper, sci
ence cannot be reduced to a formal, log
ical system or method, as the positivists
suggested. A theory is an invention, an
act of creation, based more on a scien
tist's intuition than on preexisting em
pirical data. "The history of science is
everywhere speculative, " Popper says.
"It is a marvelous history. It makes you
proud to be a human being."
If science is a truly creative enter
Photo : Bayard Horton prise, however, then the world must
:!Working unfold in fundamentally unpredictable

ways. Recognizing this fact, Popper has
c5'Vliracles
waged a lifelong battle against deter
minism. "Determinism means that if
you have sufficient knowledge of chem

Every Day istry and physic s you can predict what
Mozart will write tomorrow," he says.
"Now this is a ridiculous hypothe sis. "
One meal at a time, The Salvation Army pro Popper realized early o n that quan
vided more than 63 million meals last year. Sharing Is Caring tum mechanics undercuts determinism
by replacing clas sical certainty with
"propensities . " But even clas sical sys
tems are inherently unpredictable, a fact
that Popper claims to have discovered
long before modern chaos theorists. In
1 9 5 0 he found a theorem by a 1 9th
The G ift of Life

century French mathematician showing
that an infinite number of geodesics, or
shortest paths , can connect two points
on a two-dimensional surface called a
At St. Jude Children' s horned plane . This theorem demon
strates that "the world is chaotic, " Pop
Research Hospital every
per says.
second counts. The
Popper first elucidated his ideas in
children here are 1 9 3 4 in what is still his best-known
fighting for their lives . book, The Logic of Scientific Discovery. It
was so well received that in 1 9 3 6 Pop
Since St. Jude Hospital per, who was then teaching high school,
was offered a philosophy profes sor
opened in 1 962, it has
ship at Canterbury University College
forged new treatments
in New Zealand. After riding out World
for childhood cancer War II in the antipode s , Popper took a
and has helped save the position at the London School of Eco
lives of thousands of nomic s and Political Science , where he
children around the remains a profe ssor emeritus.
Popper's ideas, more than those of
world . But the battle has
any other philosopher, have been warm
just begun.
ly received by scientists, physicists in
particular. The British physicist Her
You can join the fight. mann Bondi recently praised Popper's
Call 1-800-877-5833. philosophy in Nature as "still the touch
stone of whether one's ideas are scien
tifically meaningful. " The admiration is
mutuaL Popper keeps reminding me
that he was personally acquainted with
such giants as Einstein, Schrbdinger and
Bohr. "I knew him quite well," Popper
says of Bohr. "He was a marvelous phys-

Mathematica
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iCist, one of the greate st of all time, but
rrrea t yourself (or your doctor)

a miserable philosopher."
Popper has generally been at odds
with his fellow philosophers , whatever
their outlook. His book The Open Soci
ety and Its Enemies, published in 1 94 5 ,
angered political philosophers o f all
stripes with its attacks on Plato, Marx,
Hegel and others whom Popper ac
cused of political dogmatism. PolitiC S ,
even more than science , Popper insist
ed, requires the free play of ideas and
criticism. Dogmatism inevitably leads
not to utopia, as Marxists and fascists
alike have claimed, but to totalitarian
repression. (Some students of Popper,
noting his own authoritarian demean
or, referred to his book as The Open
Society by One of Its Enemies.)
Popper also wrangled with those
THE BEST OF NEUROANATOMY
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Compiled and edited by and spinal cord in three- dimensional because they can 't produce
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Physicians poke fun at themselves, by coloring and labeling the structures.
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". . . a U'onderfitl neu' book. " Entire Family of Anyone \vith Any ended Quest, Popper recalls his leg
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.\\edical Association
the Speediest, Most Complete school, Ludwig Wittgenstein. Popper
$25.00 hardcover, 240 pages, illustrated was giving a lecture at Cambridge in
Recovery Possible
by Jane Schoenberg and JoAnn Stichman 1 946, when Wittgenstein interrupted to
A LITTLE BOOK OF proclaim the "nonexistence of philo
Dozens of medical experts in cardiac
DOCTORS' RULES care, including world-renowned
sophical problems." Popper demurred,
Edited by Clifton K. Meador, M.D. cardiologists and cardiac surgeons,
saying there were many such problems,
Over 400 rules, observations, were interviewed by the authors and such as establishing a basis for moral
and helpful tips for medical students share their expertise and wealth of rules. Wittgenstein, who was nervously
and physicians about patients and the experience in helpin g patients and playing with a fireplace poker, thrust it
practice of medicine. A perfect gifl families facilitate the recovery process. at Popper, demanding, "Give an exam
$9.95 paperback, 1 28 pages, $ 1 6. 9 5 . hardcover, 240 pages ple of a moral rule ! " When Popper re
available November 1 992 plied, "Not to threaten visiting lectur
ers with pokers , " Wittgenstein stormed
THE PORTABLE
DICTIONARY OF out of the room.
PEDIA TruCIAN
MEDICAL ACRONYMS & by Howard Markel, M.D.,
Popper is repelled by the currently
Jane A. Oski, MD., Frank A. Oski, M.D.,

popular view that science is driven more
ABBREVIATIONS, 2nd ed.
and Julia A. McMillan, M.D.
by politics and social custom than by a
Compiled by Stanley Jablonski
The John I [opkins Children' s Center
rational pursuit of the truth. He blames
Selected by the A merican College of
this attitude on a plot by social scien
Physicians for its " Library for Intemisl" Alphabetically arranged (from Abdominal
tists to overthrow the traditional peck
as the best medical acronym book masses to Zoonoses) charts, tables,
ing order in science, which accords
available. This new edition contains discussions, lists, and tips on over 240
physicists the most legitimacy and so
thousands of new entries. common pediatric problems.
" Things I forgot to remember . . . "
cial scientists the least. " This is a hor
rible affair," Popper growls, "and it will
$ 1 5.95 paperback, 320 pages,
available September 1 992 $35.00 paperback, 400 pages
go on probably and become more and
Please include $7.00 (surface) or $ 1 5.00 ( airmail) for postage and handling. more horrible . "
MasterCard and VISA accepted. Yet scientists, too, can fall short o f
Telephone: 2 1 5-546- 7293; FAX 2 1 5- 790-9330 Popper's ideal. The growing subsidiza
tion of science by the public since World
War II has led to "a certain corruption,"
HAN LEY &.. BELFU S, I NC. he says. "Scientists are not as critical as
M E D I C A L P U B L I S H E R S they should be. There is a certain wish
2 1 0 South 1 3th Street Phi ladelphia. Pen nsylvania 1 9 1 07 that people like you" -he j abs a finger
toward my chest-" should bring them


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- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SCI E'ITI f l C 4 1 5 Madison Avenue before the public." He stares at me a
\ J I E llI C
=--'
New York, NY moment, then reminds me that he did
il SciDex 1 00 1 7-1 1 1 1 not seek this interview. "Far from it, "
Please send me __ copies of SciDex'" , the Scientific
h e says. "You were trying to g e t me. "
American electronic index from May 1 948 to June 1 992 at Popper i s particularly dismayed a t the
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Corporate orders accepted if accompanied by authorized
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sion and disk format below.
N am e _________________
sionary universe model when it was first
Organization _____________
proposed in its simplest form more
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than a half century ago. "But then came
the difficulties, and lots of additional
City ______ State _____
hypotheses were needed," he says. To
Zip _____ Fax: (
day, he adds, " the critical attitude in
Tel: ( _____ Please Ship: this field is very rare. "
Popper has in the past irritated biolo
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Rather than diSCUSSing Darwinism,
SYSTEM REQUIREM ENTS: SciDex'w can be used on any Macintosh (Mac
Plus or better) with 2Mb RAM (4Mb recommended), running under System Popper keeps returning to an unusual
vS.D.5 or later and a hard disk with 5Mb of free space. SciDex'" comes com
theory of the origin of life advanced
pressed on 2 high-density 1 .4Mb or 4 double-density 800 K 3 -' /z' disks. The Win
dows and DOS versions require an IBM compatible computer. For the Windows by GUnter Wachtershauser, a patent at
version: Microsoft Windows 3.0 or laler; one megabyte of memory (an 80386 with
2Mb is recommended); a hard disk drive with 6Mb of free space; and an EGA or
torney living in Munich who holds a
higher resolution monitor. The DOS version requires MS-DOS 3.0 or later; 256K doctorate in chemistry. Wachtershaus
of RAM; a hard disk drive with 2Mb of free space; and a monochrome or higher
resolution monitor. Please specify disk formal. er proposes that life began not with the
replication of biochemical units such as
RNA , as many modern biologists be
lieve, but with a biochemical process
similar to the Kreb s energy cycle in
cells. ( " 1 knew Krebs," Popper remarks.)
Popper feels some pride of ownership
toward the new theory; Wachtershauser
developed it with Popper's encourage
ment after taking a summer school
course from Popper a decade ago. "He
had given up science, and 1 brought
him back to his sens e s , " Popper says .
But he emphasize s that neither he nor
Wachtershauser is wedded to the pro
I t ' s a n e p i d e m i c of peo p l e w h o ca n ' t rea d . posal. "For God's sake , why shouldn't
there be a third alternative?"
B e l i eve it or n ot, 2 7 m i l l i o n A m e r i ca n s a re
Popper's assistant pokes her head in
f u n ct i o n a l l y i l l i te rate, a bo u t o n e a d u l t i n five. Forty-seven
the door to inquire, a bit grumpily, how
m i l l i o n m o re a re a b l e to rea d o n o n ly the m ost m i n i m a l much longer we intend to go on; we
l evel . Tog eth e r, t h a t ' s a l m ost 7 5 m i l l i o n A m e r i ca n s . . . o n e have already been talking for nearly
th i rd of o u r enti re p o p u l a ti o n . three hours . 1 say 1 only have one more
T h e so l ut i o n t o t h i s p r o b l e m i s you . . . w h e n you j o i n question: Why, in his autobiography, did
t h e f i g h t a g a i n st i l l iteracy. S o ca l l t h e C oa l i t i o n for Litera cy Popper call himself "the happiest phi
at to l l -free 1 -800-228-8813 a n d vol u nteer. losopher 1 know " ? Popper grins wicked
ly. " Most philosophers are really deeply
I l l iteracy may be a n e p i d e m i c , but with a l ittl e ca ri n g
depressed because they can't produce
f r o m yo u , we ca n s t o p i t .
anything worthwhile," he replies .
Volunteer Against Illiteracy. Noting his assistant ' s look of alarm,
The only degree you need Popper's smile fades . "Perhap s you
should not write this," he says to me.
is a degree of caring. "1
"'1' 0 have enough enemie s . " He thinks
a moment, then continues, his eyes
C a l l t l on f o r L i teracy brightening again: "1 feel in all mode s

ty overwhelmed with ideas, of which 1
can only put some down, and that's
wonderful. " --John Horgan


SCIENTIFIC
AMERICAN __________
Health Care Reform

Medical costs are rising rapidly, and millions of people
have no health care coverage. The nation
urgently needs a universal insurance program
by Rashi Fein
T
he u.s. faces two challenging The increasing proportion of the GNP erect a new structure, one that provides
health care problems. The first spent on health is associated with a de universal, or national, health insurance
is that an estimated 35 million clining share of the GNP spent on other and one that helps to contain health
Americans have no medical insurance needs such as education and repair care expenditures.
and millions more have only limited of the infrastructure, as well as on re
D
coverage. This situation is compound search and development. In 1990 busi iscussions about national health
ed by the fact that most Americans be nesses spent 61 percent of pre-tax prof insurance in the u.S. began more
lieve that medical care is a right: people its and 108 percent of after-tax profits than 75 years ago. Prompted by
should not be denied necessary treat on health care benefits for employees the Progressive Movement and building
ment because of their income. Despite (as opposed to 20 and 36 percent, re on successful state initiatives on work
disagreements about particulars-such spectively, in 1970). Health payments men's compensation, state legislatures
as what constitutes necessary or ade were 15.3 percent of total federal ex began to discuss such plans. Over time,
quate treatment and how much servic penditures; 11.4 percent of state and visions of the goals, structures, admin
es should cost-there is general agree local budgets went to health. These istration and funding for such a pro
ment that the u.s. has failed to develop allocations reduce the funds available gram have inevitably changed. A Dis
a system for the equitable distribution for meeting other government commit cursive Dictionary of Health Care, pub
of health care. ments and for investing in economic lished in 1976 by Congress, hints at the
The second, newer problem involves opportunities that contribute to long ever changing perceptions of health care
the effect of rising health-related costs term growth. reform. The definition given for national
on the nation's long-run economic pros The U.S. also spends more of its gross health insurance is "a term not yet de
pects. In 1940 health care absorbed $4 domestic product (GDP)-the value of fined in the U.S." As the divergent bills
billion, a mere 4 percent of our gross items produced solely within U.S. bor now before Congress demonstrate, this
national product (GNP). In 1990 such ders-on health care than any of the term remains undefined.
expenditures equaled $666 billion, or 23 other members of the Organization Yet the major issue has remained fair
12.2 percent of the GNP; projections for Economic Cooperation and Devel ly consistent. The first arguments for
suggest that in 1992 the country will opment (OECD). In 1989, for example, national health insurance were framed
spend more than $800 billion on med the U.S. spent 11.8 percent of its GDP in terms of equity: remove financial
ical care, or 13.4 percent of the GNP. on health. In contrast, Canada spent barriers for people whose medical care
8.7 percent; 16 other nations spent less costs were more than they could afford
than 8 percent. The private sector fi and who had inadequate coverage or
nanced about 60 percent of the u.S. ex no insurance at all. The source of these
RASHI FEIN is professor of the eco
penditures, as opposed to only 20 per gaps in insurance has been the contin
nomics of medicine at Harvard Medical
School. Although his work has included cent in all OECD countries combined. uing inability of private (as opposed to
studies of manpower supply and the fi As a result, American companies have governmental) insurance to provide af
nancing of medical education, his cur proportionately less capital to invest, fordable coverage equitably.
rent work is directed at health care reo thereby jeopardizing the country's in
form. Fein, who received his doctorate ternational competitive position.
from Johns Hopkins University, served
Clearly, the development of a novel
on President John F. Kennedy's Council RISING MEDICAL COSTS threaten people
health care system is ethically and eco who lack medical insurance-a group
of Economic Advisers. He is the author
of several books on the economics of
nomically imperative. Although build numbering more than 35 million in the
health care and is a member of the insti ing on the current foundation has a U.S. To prevent a social and economic
tute of Medicine. certain political appeal, that basis is crisis, sweeping reforms in the current
severely flawed. The country needs to insurance system must be instituted.



groups with people at higher risk, such
as the elderly, found that their premi
ums increased.
Cost sharing therefore took place
solely within particular groups or sub
groups-but not across groups. Inevi
tably, as those with less risk moved
away from those with higher risk, the
average risk for those still in the com
munity group increased, as did their
premium costs. In turn, individuals who
perceived themselves as having lower
than average risk left the communi
ty, causing a further escalation of costs
for those who stayed. A vicious circle
was established.
T
he detrimental ramifications of
experience rating are apparent to
day. Because the costs of health
care have exploded, the difference in
premiums between high- and low-risk
individuals and between community
and experience rating has increased.
These escalating costs have variably af
fected businesses as well as individu
als. In particular, firms, such as the Ford
Motor Company, that have older em
ployees who use more health services,
are at a competitive disadvantage. Com
panies such as Honda, whose employ
ees tend to be younger and healthier,
do not incur high costs. (This drawback
COVERAGE FOR THE ELDERLY and the disabled is guaranteed by Medicare. Before
is, of course, made even more severe by
the creation of that program in 1965, many of the elderly were not covered by in the fact that older firms provide cover
surance or had to pay exorbitant premiums because they were considered bad age for early retirees, a category that
risks. Medicare, which does not discriminate against persons at high risk, could does not exist in the younger firm.)
serve as the model for a universal health insurance program. Experience rating has also drawn
attention to preexisting conditions
health problems stemining from a con
The insurance gap stems from the well. Initially, premiums were based on dition that an individual has before he
way private insurance changed during a community-rating principle: that is, or she is covered by a policy. This issue
and after World War II. During the war, payments reflected the average cost of is likely to become more pervasive as
the government froze wages, and man care for all subscribers. The amount genetic research enables more precise
agement and labor were encouraged paid by a group or individual did not measurement of individual risk factors:
to bargain over medical coverage. Em depend on age, gender, health status or one's genes will become the ultimate
ployees desired insurance because of the previous or anticipated use of health preexisting condition. Unless the coun
the greater ability of medicine to cure services. This strategy implied a subsidy try changes its current health insurance
illness; employers offered this fringe from younger, healthier members of the system, individuals at above-average
benefit because it was, at least at first, population to its older, sicker members. risk will find it ever more difficult to
relatively inexpensive. These conditions Buyers considered the subsidy, a form obtain employment that includes suffi
led to growth for the insurance indus of risk averaging, one of the desired at ciently comprehensive coverage.
try, a pattern that continued after the tributes of insurance. Many factors help to explain the ex
war, when the National Labor Relations But community rating did not survive plosion in medical costs that has in
Board ruled that employers unwilling to for long in a competitive world. Private creased the vulnerability of the Amer
bargain over health care benefits were insurance companies sought new mar ican economy and exposed the weak
guilty of an unfair labor practice. Con kets by basing premiums on the health nesses found in the experience-rating
sequently, employment-based private care costs incurred by speCific sub system. The population has grown (and
health insurance grew rapidly during groups of subscribers. This approach it continues to do so). Elderly people,
the 1940s and 1950s. became known as experience rating, and whose health care costs are high, rep
Employer-based private insurance, it encouraged insurers to look for low resent a burgeoning proportion of the
however, fails to provide coverage for er-risk individuals or groups (includ population. The economy has suffered
those who are not employed or who ing employees of particular firms) and from general inflation. In addition, be
work temporarily or sporadically. It also to offer them reduced rates. This tactic cause health care is a service indus
misses people whose employers, for rea had two unfortunate consequences: it try, it is a sector of the economy with
sons including the high costs of health became advantageous for persons or low productivity gains and substantial
insurance, do not provide insurance groups with lower risks to dissociate ly large increases in costs.
benefits. Another problem emerged as from persons with higher risks, and And after all, the base cost of provid-


ing medical care has grown. The threat u.s. Health Care Costs
of malpractice suits has increased the 20 ,----
pressure to practice defensive medi i='
z
cine. Physicians routinely perform tests w
u
and procedures that have question a:
w
able medical value but considerable le eo.
gal consequences. Costs and expendi
b
;:)
15 -------
tures have also risen for the best of o
reasons: medicine's improved ability to o
a:
help people. a..
...J
Furthermore, the health care commu
z
nity has never operated within any bud o 10 -------
getary constraints. Many patients are
z
sheltered from costs because their in
UJ
surance covers them. Physicians, aware UJ
o
that their patients are protected, have a:
(!)
been free to set fees in an unregulat L-_'---'---'--_L--r' \\
I I \\
f-L-J
ed market. Indeed, U.S. physicians earn 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992*1995*2000*
substantially more than doctors in any YEAR 'PROJECTED
other OECD country. SOURCE: Health Care Financing Administration
Escalating medical costs have also un

dermined the employer-based private
insurance structure that emerged after
Increase in Health Care Spending, 1980-1989
World War II. The high cost of cover 60 ,------
age has encouraged employers to lim
it their expenditures. They have made
cutbacks in benefits, increased employ
ee cost sharing and reduced coverage i='
z
for dependents. w 40 ---
u
It has become obvious that employer a:
w
based private insurance operating with eo.
in a system dominated by experience
rating cannot reach everyone. There are 0::

now, as there were in the 1950s, three u
a: 20
groups likely to be underinsured or in w
a..
adequately insured: unemployed peo
ple, those whose employers do not pro
vide insurance and applicants with pre
existing conditions. Access to insurance
o
has become an especially significant is GERMANY U.K. FRANCE JAPAN CANADA u.s.
sue as medicine's ability to treat and SOURCE: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
prevent illnesses successfully has im
proved and as the costs of such life
saving interventions have risen. Comparison of Costs for Health Care,
Defense and Education
I
t is possible to erect a univer
sal insurance program that would 12
avoid the gaps and adverse effects
i=' HEALTH CARE
of the current system. The concept is z
straightforward: every person would 10
a:
be enrolled in the same financing pro w
gram, one similar to the Medicare mod eo.
el. Under the Medicare program for the b 8
;:)
aged, disabled and people with end o
stage renal disease, beneficiaries seek o
a:
care from diverse sources even though a.. 6
...J
the same insurance program covers
z
them all. 0 EDUCATION
i= 4
Payments to Medicare are not relat
z
ed to an individual's health status or UJ
to current or projected future use of UJ
0
health services. Nor would it be nec a: 2
(!)
essary to make them so in an expand
ed system that enrolled all U.S. citi
zens. Experience rating disappears 0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
and with it the rationale for discrimi
YEAR
nating against high-risk users. The im
SOURCE: Consumer Reports, U.S. National Center for Education Statistics, Health Care Financing Administration, U.S.
petus to shift costs from one program Office of Management and Budget


to another falls by the wayside when dividual's health status, the same would the poor will become a poor program.
there is only one program. be true in an expanded universal pro Enrolling everyone in the same plan
Moreover, a single universal program gram that included all Americans. Ex will certainly not solve or even address
severs the link to employment. In con perience rating and its unfavorable ef all the shortcomings of the current sys
trast, pay-or-play proposals, often pre fects would disappear. tem. But the approach would enable us
sented as a pragmatic compromise be A universal program could rely on to tackle the issue of cost containment
tween a radically new system and cur any of the financing sources used in in a direct way.
rent practices, expand that linkage. Such Medicare, or it might be financed by ad A single enrollment program means
policies would require employers to ei ditional revenues such as those from a a single payer or, more appropriately,
ther "pay" (forward a specified amount value-added tax. The choice of financing a single purchaser of services. This sit
to a government fund that would be sources is vitally important, and the ini uation leads to the standardization of
used to provide insurance) or "play" tial political and economic difficulties forms, to electronic billing and to vari
(provide their employees with health brought about by shifting a large pro ous measures that reduce confUSion,
insurance that meets a predetermined portion of the estimated $460 billion delay and the costs of administration
benefit standard). of private health care funding into the in today's system. The purchaser would
But because pay-or-play proposals public sector are considerable. Yet these not only pay the bill for services but
build on the existing model of em are surmountable, one-time concerns also accept a broader responsibility to
ployment-based insurance, they would and are eased by the recognition that on focus on issues of quality of care, un
continue patterns of inefficiency. They average the increase in taxes to finance necessary services and value for mon
would have to deal with coverage for universal coverage would be balanced ey. Each of these activities contributes
part-time work and self-employment. by the decline in private payments for to cost control.
They would have to have separate mech insurance premiums and care. The pro In addition, a universal program that
anisms to provide continuity of cov gram would require a shift, not an aug raises funds through taxes and premi
j\:
erage for individuals who change em mentation, in health care financing. um payments cannot survive for long
ployers or location. They would have to if it neglects cost considerations. If it
account for the differing ability of em ingle universal program has an cannot fund its obligations, it will be
ployers to finance insurance and pro other positive feature-one that forced to increase its revenues or shift
vide appropriate subsidies for "margi becomes apparent when we costs to patients-and it will fail. Be
nal" firms as well as for start-up enter compare Social Security with welfare cause the single insurance approach
prises. Pay-or-play policies would also and Medicare with Medicaid. Social Se cannot shift costs to another insurer, it
have to avoid propagating incentives to curity and Medicare do not discrimi must achieve its goal within a budget.
hire individuals with lower risks whose nate on the basis of income. Converse Therefore, the plan would have to set
premiums would be less costly. ly, welfare and Medicaid are solely for an overall budget for health care as
Although it is possible to design spe the poor. The first two are strong pro well as similar budgets for physician
cial provisions to meet these dilemmas, grams that, by including everyone, pro and hospital services. As demonstrated
each attempt to compensate for the tect low-income individuals from the va by many countries, such as France and
complexities of an employment-based garies of funding; the fates of diverse in Japan, negotiations between all affect
approach comes at a price. The system come groups are inexorably intertwined. ed parties, including government and
becomes more cumbersome and suf In contrast, we fund welfare and health care prOviders, can give rise to a
fers from increased administrative du Medicaid for "them"-and we all know budget. This political process weighs
ties and higher administrative costs. or think we know who "they" are. These the costs of health care against alterna
Pay-or-play proposals would have to programs rely on the milk of human tive public programs and private-sector
be carefully tuned and retuned in order kindness, but this milk sometimes cur expenditures.
to maintain the desired balance between dles. To minimize the development of Measures such as prospective bud
the private and the public provision of disparities in access and in quality, it is gets for institutional care, capitated
insurance. A relatively low pay provision important to erect programs that do (non-fee) payments for people enrolled
(in other words, too low a tax) would not enroll persons according to socio in Health Maintenance Organizations,
make the play alternative unattractive economic characteristics and sources and other approaches to managed care
and would lead to the decline of private of funding. would assist in meeting budgetary con
insurance. Conversely, too high a pay Yet this is the risk we run with strat straints. There is no intellectual chal
prOvision would force some employers egies, such as pay-or-play plans, that lenge to developing the tools necessary
not offering insurance to play-even combine private and public approaches. to do the task.
though that chOice might place an oner The publicly funded programs would Great difficulty may arise, as it does
ous burden on them, in the form of low have a disproportionate number of low with all large government programs,
er profits, or on their employees, in the income or high-risk people for whom in choosing a budget that reflects the
form of lower wages or unemployment. employers prefer to pay. Their per cap public view of competing consumption
If everyone is enrolled in the same ita medical costs would be higher be and investment opportunities (such
program, however, a number of other cause medical needs reflect health sta as education). In the 1960s and early
wise complex financing issues are au tus, which is, in turn, affected by hous 1970s voters feared that the govern
tomatically resolved. Again, Medicare ing, education and employment. ment was profligate and that national
provides a helpful precedent. Medicare Once again, government plans would health insurance would bankrupt the
is financed through a combination of appear to be more expensive than pri nation-especially a nation that asso
sources. In 1992 an estimated 58 per vate initiatives, presumably because ciated larger expenditures with higher
cent of total income to the fund will be government is less effiCient, thereby quality. Today the fear is the reverse,
derived from payroll taxes, 25 percent prOviding a rationale for cutting public that legislators will be parsimonious
from general revenues and 9 percent budgets and for underfunding. What and that the nation will not spend as
from individual premiums. Just as none ever level the publicly funded initia much as is essential to maintain the
of these payments are related to the in- tive begins at, over time a program for medical care infrastructure.
50 SC IENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1992


Of course, there can be no guarantee How Health Care Is Financed, in Billions
that underspending will not occur. Nev
ertheless, it is possible to structure na PRIVATE INSURANCE
tional health insurance to reduce the
likelihood of such a phenomenon. The OUT OF POCKET
most important protective device is uni

MEDICARE
versality-the fact that everyone is cov
ered by the same financing scheme. Al OTHER GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS
though individuals will be able to opt
out of the publicly funded program in MEDICAID
favor of private insurance, the incen
tive to exercise that option can be re OTHER PRIVATE SOURCES
duced by requiring payment of the uni

SOURCE: Health Care Financing Administration, 1990
versal tax even if one elects to receive
privately funded care. Moreover, stipu
lating that providers be entirely in or
Where Health Care Funds Are Spent, in Billions
out of the program would guard against
underspending.
To formulate workable health care HOSPITALS
budgets, policymakers must become
more concerned about the supply of PHYSICIAN SERVICES
health resources. The proliferation of
high-technology equipment and services OTHER PERSONAL EXPENSES
and the growth of financially rewarding

MEDICAL SUPPLIES (E.G., DRUGS, EYEGLASSES)
specialties-surgery, anesthesiology, ra
diology and subspecialties of internal
OTHER SPENDING (INCLUDES ADMINISTRATION)
medicine-have contributed to expand
ing costs. If the system does not solve NURSING HOMES
the monetary and other incentives that
have led to a declining interest in fami RESEARCH AND CONSTRUCTION OF FACILITIES
ly medicine, general medicine and pe
SOURCE: Health Care Financing Administration, 1990
diatrics, costs will not be contained nor
quality sustained.
Not even the best national health in
surance program can succeed in as Comparison of Physicians' Incomes
suring access to care at a reasonable,
responsible expenditure level if health
restructuring is limited to insurance AVERAGE RATIO OF PHYSICIANS
enrollment, financing and payment.

PHYSICIAN'S INCOME PHYSICIAN'S PER 1,000
IN 1986 INCOME TO POPULATION,
Medical education and training must
U.S. DOLLARS AVERAGE INCOME 1981-1983
be reformed. So also must the financ
ing of medical education. Its high cost
can lead to indebtedness and conse AUSTRALIA 34,191 2.26 1.9
quently cause students to choose lucra
CANADA 70,144 3.47 1.9
tive specialties.
DENMARK 39,061 2.01 2.4
M
any academic health analysts
believe a remodeled U.S. health FINLAND 35,558 1.82 2.2
care system would be able to
deliver services to all Americans for the FRANCE NOT AVAILABLE 3.27 (1979) 2.2
$800 billion now spent on care for only
WEST GERMANY 91,244 4.28 2.4
some Americans. These experts say the
system could do so without denying IRELAND 17,830 1.08 1.2
anyone care that is medically neces
sary. They point to the large savings ITALY NOT AVAILABLE 1.10 (1981) 1.3
that would accrue if unneeded care
were eliminated and patterns of ad JAPAN 56,437 2.46 1.4
ministration streamlined. Indeed, some
NORWAY 31,664 1.38 2.0
estimates suggest that as much as 25
percent of performed procedures are 2.4
SWEDEN NOT AVAILABLE 1.80 (1983)
not required.
Nevertheless, the savings would occur SWITZERLAND 118,501 4.10 1.6
only over a number of years. Determin
ing what constitutes appropriate care U.K. 33,615 2.39 1.3
would require research into and consen
U.S. 119,500 5.12 1.9
sus about the meaning of unnecessary
care. Patterns of practice would have to
be altered. We would have to pursue an SOURCE: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 1986


Percentage of State Populations active labor-market policy to assure jobs
That Lack Health Insurance for those who would be displaced by
change.
But what if these savings were in
sufficient to permit the system to deliv
er, at reasonable expense, all of the ser
vices that providers might want to of
fer or that patients might seek? What if
the capacity of the system proved tem
porarily insufficient?
I must emphasize that I do not believe
that in a reorganized system as richly
endowed as ours, the public would face
queues and long waiting times. I do be
lieve, however, that we should recognize
the possible need for rationing. My dic
tionary defines the verb "to ration" as
"to distribute equitably." In health care
this means the use of nonincome crite
ria to guide distribution of services: the
use of standards that give highest prior
ity to medical needs, urgency of treat
ment and possible benefits.
Cd BELOW 10 PERCENT _ 20 TO 24 PERCENT
_10 TO 14 PERCENT _ 25 TO 26 PERCENT
C
onsensus on these matters is
-15 TO 19 PERCENT
not easily arrived at, but solu
(INCLUDES THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA) SOURCE: General Accounting Office, 1988
tions exist. In other nations the
government has often resolved these
Characteristics of the Insured and Uninsured issues by delegating the decision-mak
ing process to physicians who allocate
EMPLOYMENT- OTHER PUBLIC
and control information and resourc
RELATED PRIVATE COVERAGE
es, determine priorities and perform
COVERAGE COVERAGE ONLY UNINSURED
rationing.
Another strategy is for the public
EMPLOYMENT
to assume more control and make ra
FULL TIME 81.9 2.6 2.8 12.7
tioning expliCit. The state of Oregon en
PART TIME 59.7 8.8 7.5 24.1 gaged in just such a public debate to de
SELF-EMPLOYED 54.7 20.6 1.8 22.9 termine the specific services that would
and that would not be provided under
TYPE OF INDUSTRY its Medicaid program. But there were a
PERSONAL SERVICES 52.5 9.5 6.6 31.5 lot of problems. The proposed rationing
scheme appeared rigid because it did
CONSTRUCTION 60.6 6.8 1.9 30.6
not adequately take into account the
SALES 68.3 6.3 4.0 21.4
physician's judgment about individu
MANUFACTURING 85.9 2.8 1.0 10.3 al cases. It also disproportionally hurt
poor mothers and children. The federal
SIZE OF ESTABLISHMENT government did not approve the imple
FEWER THAN 10 WORKERS 56.5 13.1 4.2 26.3 mentation of the program, arguing that
MORE THAN 500 WORKERS 89.4 1.3 3.2 6.1 it discriminated against the disabled.
The Oregon experience was, however,
HOURLY WAGE only the first attempt to impose ration
$3.50 OR LESS ing on part of the population at the
53.9 6.0 10.1 30.1
state level. The effort illustrated the dif
$3.51 TO $5.00 56.3 6.0 7.3 30.4
ficulty of achieving consensus but also
MORE THAN $15.00 91.3 1.9 1.7 5.1 demonstrated that through open debate
the political process can construct and
ETHNIC GROUP refine explicit rationing standards. In
WHITE 69.1 11.7 6.8 12.4 any event, a universal health insurance
BLACK 48.5 4.5 25.1 22.0 program does not create a need for ra
tioning; rather it substitutes an equi
HISPANIC 45.9 4.2 18.3 31.5
table rationing scheme for the price-ra
tioning system that now exists.
AGE
To be viable, a health care system
UNDER 6 62.5 5.0 15.8 16.7
must incorporate a sense of communi
19 TO 24 55.2 8.1 6.5 30.2 ty, a sense of solidarity with othes.
65 AND OLDER 35.4 39.3 24.4 0.9 That demand, it seems to me, argues ill
SOURCE: Department of Health All figures are percentages. Because of rounding, some totals do
favor of a plan administered by states
and Human Services not equal 100 percent. rather than by a distant federal govern-


ment. A series of insurance packages
administered by the states, rather than
one federal program, would not vio
late the concept of universality. The de
tails of the meshing of federal and state
responsibilities would be important.
The federal government would have to
define benefits and cost-containment
goals, as well as provide some funding.
But in my judgment, the gains associat
ed with state administration and more
direct citizen involvement would out
weigh the additional complexity.
In discussing health care reform, oth
er economists and health care experts
emphasize the nature of the delivery
system and the role of managed care,
the role assigned to cost sharing and the
type of negotiation process used to de
velop an appropriate fee structure. I do
not deny the importance of these mat
gd
ters or suggest that the framework I
ENVELOPE"
have outlined cannot be altered in sever
ProgreSSlvc management tooay has a oo dal to
e
al respects without compromising the do with four ydr old, because it is concerned
not 001)' with employee but 150 with their
basic integrity of the proposals. famiEts. A fami1r nun doesn; cease to be a family
man when he comes to work. and if he is worried
At the same time, I do mean to em about thing5 il.t h om he carries that worrr through
the dar wilh him, Simple truth, and an important
phasize that we need to consider funda one in man:l.ging pt:rsonnd.
Man)' worrie5 thaI beset the held of a. lamilr

mental choices. We must choose be arc linmcial. What if he is sick. what if he is
injured. or if he dies . or will he be a hurde n
tween universal social insurance and the to his children when he rClches relirement age?
and thc}' Me not small OllCS .
continuation of employment-based in Thee worric ,
f
can today be l.Hgely diminated throut;h Coone(
tiult Gener.ll"s "Protected Pa}' Enl'clope" pl.m,
surance, between community and expe ,,hich prol'icil"5 5ingl)' or in combination Group
rience rating and between cost contain Life, Accident and Sjckl1e-s nJ Hmpital Expense
insurance and a Retirement income o r emplo)'ees.
ment and cost escalation. Employees have a lot to dunk m"nagement for
when this plJO is in operation. If )'ou would like
The approach I propose has some dis to sechow praCtical the '"Prote-ctea Py Envelopc
phn can he for your ofgnizatjon, send for our
advantages. In addition to being nonin booklet the "Protected. Pay Envelope"
LIFE
cremental, it increases the role of gov ACCIDENT and HEALTH
ernment. It also requires concern about GROUP INSURANCE
AND ANNUITIES
CONNECTICUT GENERAL
the effects of restructuring, the fate of LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY
displaced workers and the consequenc HARTFORD. CONNECTICUT

es of shifting large sums from the pri
vate to the public sector. Yet a system
analogous to an improved Medicare for
HEALm INSURANCE was readily provided by employers during the 1940s and
all has the boon of SimpliCity. It can be 1950s. Medical care was at that time less expensive, and many people whose medical
explained and can be understood and expenses had been paid by the federal government during World War II expected
is workable. The plan spells out the eq employers to provide similar coverage. This advertisement for insurance appeared
uity and expenditure issues efficiently. in Fortune magazine in September 1945.
C
itizens should not adopt the pos
ture that many analysts and pol While the incremental pay-or-play er approach as socialistic and leading
iticians have chosen: to reject program might be viewed as an "estab to long lines.
what they agree is an efficient and work lishment" proposal that has received flection year is hardly the time to ac
able program because they presume it considerable attention and publiCity, cept the pundits as the true experts on
is too big a step and cannot pass the the more comprehensive Single-payer what is politically feasible. It is certain
legislative hurdles. The less efficient in proposal was preferred by 41 to 29 ly not the moment to reject comprehen
cremental approaches that seem "bet percent of Democrats and 38 to 29 per sive reform on the grounds that it is not
ter" may prove as challenging to enact cent of independents. Republicans did doable. Rather all of us must become
as the single enrollment program out favor the pay-or-play approach, but more knowledgeable about and must
lined here. Nothing will come easily, only by 31 to 26 percent, despite the debate each of the options that could
but on health insurance reform, as on president's criticisms of the single-pay- improve the health of our society.
other matters, the public may be ahead
of the representatives. A Kaiser/Louis
Harris poll at the end of June found that FURTHER READING
adults preferred a single-payer plan MEDICAL CARE, MEDICAL COSTS: THE SYSTEM REFORM. John Holahan, Marilyn
over a pay-or-play program by a mar SEARCH FOR A HEALTH INSURANCE POLI Moon, W. Pete Welch and Stephen Zucker
gin of 35 to 29 percent -even though CY. Rashi Fein. Harvard University Press, man. Urban Institute Press, 1991.
the latter has the endorsement of ma 1986. SERIOUS AND UNSTABLE CONDITION: FI
BALANCING ACCESS, COSTS, AND POLITICS: NANCING AMERICA'S HEALTH CARE. Henry
jor congressional figures and leaders in
THE AMERICAN CONTEXT FOR HEALTH Aaron. Brookings institution, 1991.
the business community.


The Expansion Rate
and Size of the Universe
The age, evolution and fate of the universe depend on just how fast it is
expanding. By measuring the size of the universe using a variety of new
techniques, astronomers have improved estimates of the expansion rate
by Wendy L. Freedman
O
ur Milky Way and all other gal galaxies, leading to completely new esti
axies are moving away from one mates of the expansion rate.
another as a result of the big At present, several lines of evidence
bang, the fiery birth of the universe. point toward a high expansion rate, im
During the 20th century, cosmologists plying that the universe is relatively
have discovered this expansion, detect young, perhaps only 10 billion years oid.
ed the microwave background radia They also suggest that the expansion of
tion from the original explosion, de the universe may continue indefinitely.
duced the origin of chemical elements Yet for many reasons, my colleagues
in the universe and mapped the large and I do not consider the evidence de
scale structure and motion of galaxies. finitive, and indeed we actively debate
Despite these advances and many oth the merits of our techniques.
ers, elementary questions remain unan An accurate measurement of the ex
swered. How long ago did the colossal pansion rate is essential not only for de
expansion begin? Will the universe con termining the age of the universe and its
tinue to expand forever, or will the uni fate but also for constraining theories of
verse eventually be halted by gravity cosmology and models of galaxy forma
and then collapse back on itself ? tion. Furthermore, it is important for es
For decades cosmologists have been timating fundamental quantities rang
attempting to answer such questions ing from the amount of nonlurninous
by measuring the size scale and expan matter in galaxies to the size of clusters
sion rate of the universe. To accomplish of galaxies. And because accurate mea
this task, astronomers must determine surements of distance are required for
both how fast galaxies are moving and calculating the luminosity, mass and
how far away they are. Techniques for size of astronomical objects, the issue
measuring the velocities of galaxies are of the cosmological distance scale, or
well established, but estimating the dis determination of the expansion rate,
tances to galaxies has proved to be a far affects, to a greater or lesser extent, the
more challenging task. During the past entire field of extragalactic astronomy.
decade, several independent groups Astronomers began measuring the
of astronomers have developed better expansion rate of the universe some 60
methods for measuring the distances to years ago. In 1929 the eminent astrono
mer Edwin P. Hubble of the Carnegie In
stitution discovered that nearly all gal-
WENDY L. FREEDMAN is a member of

the staff at the Carnegie Observatories in
Pasadena, Calif. Born in Toronto, she re
ANDROMEDA GAlAXY is a prime exam
ceived a Ph.D. in astronomy and astro
ple of why calculating the expansion rate
physics from the University of Toronto
in 1984. She became a Carnegie postdoc
of the universe is difficult. Andromeda
toral fellow and, in 1987, was the first is 2.5 million light-years away from the
woman to join the staff. She is now a earth, but it still feels the gravitational
member of the Hubble Space Telescope pull of our own galaxy. Consequently, its
Key Project Team for the Extragalactic relative motion has little to do with the
Distance Scale. Her interest, outside of expansion of the universe. By observing
astronomy, is spending time with her more distant galaxies, astronomers can
family: husband Barry, daughter Rachael, detect the expansion, but they do not
5, and son Daniel, 4. know its precise rate because it is difficult
to measure distan ces to remote galaxies.


axies are moving away from the earth typical galaxy at a distance of 50 mega into the range of 50 to 100 km/s/Mpc,
at tremendous velocities. Moreover, he parsecs moves away at about 5,000 indicating a universe far larger than sug
made the remarkable observation that kilometers per second. A galaxy at 500 gested by the earliest measurements.
the velocity of recession is proportion megaparsecs therefore moves at about During the past two decades, new
al to the distance to the galaxy. His ob 50,000 kilometers per second, or more estimates of the Hubble constant have
servations provided the first evidence than 100 million miles per hour! continued to fall within this same range,
that the entire universe is expanding. For six decades, astronomers have but preferentially toward the two ex
Hubble was the first to determine the hotly debated the precise value of the ex tremes. Notably, Sandage and his long
expansion rate. Later this quantity be pansion rate. Hubble originally obtained time collaborator Gustav A. Tammann
came known as the Hubble constant: a value of 500 kilometers per second per of the University of Basel have argued
the recession. velocity of the galaxy di megaparsec (km/s/Mpc). After Hubble's for a value of 50 km/s/Mpc, whereas
vided by its distance. A very rough es death in 1953, his protege Allan R. Sand Gerard de Vaucouleurs of the Universi
timate of the Hubble constant is 100 age, also at Carnegie, continued the pro ty of Texas has advocated a value of 100
kilometers per second per megaparsec. gram of mapping the expansion of the km/s/Mpc. The controversy has creat
(Astronomers commonly represent dis universe. As Sandage and others made ed an unsatisfactory situation in which
tances in terms of megaparsecs, where more accurate and extensive observa scientists have been free to choose any
one megaparsec is the distance light tions, they eventually revised Hubble's value of the Hubble constant between
travels in 3.26 million years.) Thus, a original value downward considerably the two extremes.

the cycle, its luminosity increases very
rapidly, whereas during the remainder
Why Cepheid Variables Pulsate of the cycle, the luminosity of the Ce
pheid decreases slowly. On average, Ce
A
ePheid variable is a relatively young star, several times more massive pheid variables are about 10,000 times
than the sun, whose luminosity changes in a periodic way: a Ce brighter than the sun.
pheid brightens and then dims more slowly. It pulsates because the Remarkably, the distance to a Cephe
force of gravity acting on the atmosphere of the star is not quite balanced by id can be calculated from its period
the pressure of the hot gases from the interior of the star. (the length of its cycle) and its average
The imbalance occurs because of changes in the atmosphere of a Cephe apparent brightness (its luminosity as
id. An important ingredient in the atmosphere is singly ionized helium (that observed from the earth). In 1908 Hen
is, helium atoms that have lost a single electron). As radiation flows out of rietta S. Leavitt of Harvard College Ob
the interior of a Cepheid, singly ionized helium in the atmosphere absorbs servatory discovered that the period of
and scatters radiation, and it may become doubly ionized (that is, each heli a Cepheid is very tightly correlated with
um atom releases a second electron). Consequently, the atmosphere be its brightness. She found that the long
comes more opaque, making it difficult for radiation to escape from the at er the period, the brighter the star. This
mosphere. This interaction between radiation and matter generates a pres relation arises from the fact that the
sure that pushes out the atmosphere of the star. As a result, the Cepheid brightness of a Cepheid is proportional
increases in size and brightness. to its surface area. Large, bright Cephe
Yet as the atmosphere ids pulsate over a long period just as,
expands, it also cools, and for example, large bells resonate at a
at lower temperatures the low frequency (long period ).
helium returns to its sin By observing the variations in lumi
gly ionized state. Hence, nosity of a Cepheid over time, astrono
the atmosphere allows ra mers can obtain its period and average
diation to pass through apparent luminosity and thereby calcu
more freely, and the pres late its absolute luminosity (that is, the
sure on the atmosphere apparent brightness the star would have
decreases. Eventually, the if it were a standard distance of 10 par
atmosphere collapses secs away). Furthermore, they know that
back to its initial size, and the apparent luminosity decreases as
the Cepheid returns to its the distance it travels increases. There
original brightness. The fore, the distance to the Cepheid can be
cycle then repeats. computed from the ratio of the absolute
Astronomers have pre brightness to the apparent brightness.
dicted the behavior of Ce Cepheids are useful distance indi
pheids with great accura cators for many reasons. In particular,
cy using theoretical mod their cyclic behavior and high luminosi
els of the evolution of the ty make them relatively easy to find
interior of stars as well as and to measure.
simulations of the flow of In the 1920s Hubble used Cepheid
radiation in stars. Astron variables to establish that other galaxies
omers have confidence in existed far beyond the Milky Way. While
Cepheids as distance in studying photographs of the Androm
SEVERAL CEPHEID VARIABLES are apparent in
dicators because they un the galaxy M33, a member of our own Local eda nebula, also known as M31, Hubble
derstand the underlying Group_ Individual Cepheids are marked by a identified faint starlike images whose
physics of these young number and the letter V. Each dark point repre brightnesses varied slightly over time.
stars and have observed sents a star, whereas the white irregular patch He was able to show that their behavior
them in great detail. es are regions filled with dust. matched that of nearby Cepheid vari
ables. By measuring the apparent bright
nesses and periods of the Cepheids in
M31 he deduced that M31 was located
In principle, determination of the lines are shifted to longer wavelengths more than several hundred thousand
Hubble constant is simple, requiring by an amount proportional to the velod light-years away from the sun, well out
only a measurement of distance and ty-an effect known as redshift. side the Milky Way. From the 1930s to
velocity. Although measuring the veloc To determine the distance to a gal the 1960s, Hubble, Sandage and others
ity of a galaxy is straightforward, how axy, astronomers have a choice of a made a tremendous effort to discover
ever, gauging the distance is rather dif variety of complicated methods. Each Cepheids in nearby galaxies. They suc
ficult. To obtain the velocity, astron has its advantages, but none, it seems, ceeded in measuring the distances to
omers disperse the light coming from is perfect. about a dozen galaxies, thereby improv
a galaxy and record its spectrum. The ing the foundations for deriving the
A
spectrum of a galaxy contains discrete tronomers can most accurately Hubble constant.
spectral lines. These occur at character measure the distances to near One of the major difficulties with the
istic wavelengths caused by emission or by galaxies by monitoring a type Cepheid method is that the apparent lu
absorption by specific elements in the of star commonly referred to as a minosity can be diminished by the dust
gas and stars that make up the galaxy. Cepheid variable. Over time, the star found between stars. The particles ab
For a galaxy moving away from the changes in brightness in a periodic and sorb, scatter and redden the light from
earth, the positions of these spectral distinctive way. During the first part of all types of stars. The effects of the dust


are most severe for blue and ultraviolet indicators. The techniques are based almost all of the current debate about
light. It is therefore necessary that as either on properties of certain types the Hubble constant.
tronomers either observe Cepheids at of bright objects within galaxies or on One of the most promising tech
infrared wavelengths where the effects characteristics of galaxies themselves. niques for measuring great distances re
are less significant or observe them at Yet scientists cannot reach a consensus lies on a correlation between the bright
many different optical wavelengths so about which, if any, secondary indi ness of a galaxy and the rate at which
that they can assess the effects and cor cators are reliable. Furthermore, they it rotates. High-luminosity galaxies are
rect for them. disagree about how they should apply typically more massive than low-lumi
many of the methods and then wheth nosity galaxies, and so bright galaxies
T
o determine the distance to Ce er they should adjust the results to ac rotate more slowly than dim galaxies.
pheids, therefore, astronomers count for various effects that might bias Although the existence of such a corre
need telescopes and detectors the results. Differences in the choice of lation was known for some time, it was
that are very sensitive to light at a vari secondary methods are at the root of not until 1977 that R. Brent Tully of
ety of wavelengths. Hubble, Sandage
and their contemporaries used photo
graphic plates that responded primari
ly to green and blue light and had an O.0 r-----,----,
efficiency of less than a tenth of a per
cent. Today astronomers use solid-state
charge-coupled devices (CCDs) made
out of thin wafers of silicon. These de
vices can detect light of wavelengths 0.4
from blue to red and are more than 50
percent efficient. When a photon strikes
a CCD, it liberates electrons in the sili
con, creating a detectable signal.
CCDs offer an enormous increase in 0.8
observing efficiency over photograph
ic plates. In addition, they record the
brightness of a light source with much
greater accuracy than photographic ma
1.2
terials. The CCDs therefore make ideal w
detectors for studying Cepheids and for 0
:::l
dealing with the effects of dust grains. f-
Z
During the past decade, my collab (9

orator (and husband) Barry F. Madore :2
and I at the California Institute of Tech
nology have carefully remeasured the z
0
distances to the nearest galaxies us i=

ing CCDs and the large reflecting tele a:
scopes at many sites, including Mauna
>
Kea in Hawaii, Las Campanas in Chile LL
0
and Mount Palomar in California. As a W
result, we have determined the distanc (9
z
es to nearby galaxies with much great
a:
er accuracy than ever before.
Unfortunately, the technique for mea
suring the distances to galaxies contain
ing Cepheids cannot be used directly to
obtain the Hubble constant. Cepheids
are bright enough to be observed only
in the nearest galaxies, not the distant
ones. And although nearby galaxies are
participating in the expansion of the
universe, the gravitational interactions
among the neighbors may be causing
some to move much faster or slower
than the rest of the universe. Conse
quently, to calculate the Hubble con
stant, astronomers must accurately de
3 .6L- L-____L-____L-____L-____L-____L-____L-____L-__
____
termine the distances to remote galax 36

o 6 12 16 24 30 42 48 54
ies, and that task is extremely difficult.
Nevertheless, astronomers have devel DAYS
oped several methods for determining
MAGNITUDE OF A CEPHEID varies cyclically over a period of days. Each colored
distances to remote galaxies. Because line corresponds to observations at different wavelengths of radiation (from ultra
many of these techniques must be cali violet to near infrared). The amplitude of the light variation is largest toward blue
brated using the Cepheid distance scale, and ultraviolet wavelengths. Cepheids are therefore more easily discovered using
they are considered secondary distance detectors sensitive to blue light.


Measuring Distances to Galaxies
A
stronomers can employ several different techniques for some 10 million light-years away. Using the same technique and
measuring distances to galaxies. Unfortunately, the accuracy the Hubble Space Telescope, they may be able to measure the
of the measurements decreases as the distance to the galaxy in distance to the Virgo cluster, approximately 50 million light-years
creases. By observing stars known as Cepheid variables through away. By measuring the brightness of a galaxy and the velocity at
ground-based telescopes, astronomers have accurately deter which it rotates, astronomers can currently determine the distance
mined the distances to galaxies as far away as the M81 group, to galaxies some 300 million light-years away. Another promising
M8 1 GALAXY GROUP GALAXY CLUSTERS

( 10 MILLION LIGHT-YEARS) (300 MILLION LIGHT-YEARS)
LOCAL GROUP M8 1 GROUP

(THREE MILLION ( 10 MILLION
LIGHT-YEARS) LIGHT-YEARS)
VIRGO
(50 MILLION
LIGHT-YEARS)
w -24 ,-,---,----,---,---,,-.
.' o
. . .. ::J M3 1
.-. I- M8 1
w 18 .. : Z
0 . <!J -22
::J
. .'
I- :. . ::2
Z ., .. w NGC 2403-
<!J 20 . I-
::J -20 M33
::2 --'
o -NGC 300
," ({)
22 co

3.2 10 32 100
DAYS
PERIOD of a Cepheid variable-the time it VELOCITY at which a galaxy rotates is re

takes for the star to complete one cycle of lated to its magnitude. This so-called Tully
brightening and dimming-is related to its Fisher relation is extremely precise, enabling
magnitude, or brightness. The measure accurate relative distances to be obtained.
ments were made at infrared wavelengths Cepheid distances to these galaxies were de
on Cepheids in the Large Magellanic Cloud. termined using detectors called CCDs.
the University of Hawaii and]. Richard P. Huchra of Harvard University and . the Cepheid technique can be used to
Fisher of the National Radio Astrono Gregory D. Bothun of the University of calibrate the Tully-Fisher method. A dis
my Observatory used the correlation Oregon. Since then, several indepen advantage is that astronomers currently
extensively to measure distances. dent groups have tested the Tully-Fish lack a detailed theoretical understand
The Tully-Fisher relation yields the er method extensively. Most important, ing of the Tully-Fisher relation.
most accurate distance measurements they have shown that the relation does
R
when observations of the brightness of not appear to depend on environment; esearchers have recently devel
a galaxy are made at infrared wave more specifically, it is the same in the oped two other distance measur
lengths. There are two reasons. First, dense parts of rich clusters, in the out ing techniques [see "Mirroring
the stars that dominate the luminosity er parts of such clusters and for rela the Cosmos," by Corey S. Powell; SCIEN
of galaxies emit most of their radiation tively isolated galaxies. TIFIC AMERICAN, November 1991]. The
at near-infrared wavelengths. Second, For these reasons and others, astron first method, devised by George Jacoby
as infrared radiation travels through omers generally agree (but by no means of the National Optical Astronomy Ob
space, it scatters less at longer wave universally accept) that the Tully-Fish servatories and his colleagues, involves
lengths. Just over a decade ago the use er relation is one of the most accurate objects known as planetary nebulae.
of the Tully-Fisher relation at infrared secondary distance indicators available. These objects are formed when stars
wavelengths was pioneered by the late It can be used to estimate distances as that are about as massive as the sun
Marc Aaronson of the University of Ari far away as 300 million light-years. An approach the end of their life cycle.
zona, Jeremy R. Mould of Caltech, John other advantage of the method is that Jacoby and his co-workers found that


with distance because the task sufficient to calibrate the supernova dis
of resolving individual stars tance scale accurately.
becomes increasingly difficult.
T
technique is based on the apparent peak brightness of a Hence, the distance to a galaxy wo other methods for determin
kind of exploding star known as a type Ja supernova. In can be gauged by how much ing the Hubble constant also de
principle, such explosions could be detected out to a dis the apparent brightness of the serve mention because they are
tance of about half of the visible universe. The superno galaxy fluctuates over its sur completely independent of the Cepheid
va technique is far less accurate than the Cepheid face. After determining the dis distance scale and they can be useful
method, as the graphs below suggest. tances to galaxies using the for measuring distances on vast cosmo
surface brightness technique, logical scales. Moreover, preliminary ap
VISIBLE UNIVERSE Tonry compared the results plications of each of these methods cur
( 10 BILLION LIGHT-YEARS) DISTANT with those obtained using the rently favor a lower value of the Hub
SUPERNOVA planetary nebula and Tully ble constant.
(FIVE BILLION
Fisher methods and found ex The first of these alternative methods
LIGHT-YEARS)
cellent agreement. Consider- relies on an effect called gravitation
./ ing the uncertainties that have al lensing: if light from some distant
plagued measurements of ex source travels near a galaxy on its way
tragalactic distances, Tonry's to the earth, the light can be deflected.
findings are extremely encour The light takes many different paths
aging. Yet both methods cur around the galaxy, some shorter, some
rently have only small num longer, and consequently arrives at the
bers of Cepheid calibrators earth at different times. If the bright
available. ness of the source varies in some dis
Another distance indicator tinctive way, the signal will be seen first
that has great potential is a in the light that takes the shortest path
GALAXY particular kind of supernova and will be observed again, some time
CLUSTERS known as type Ia. Supernovae later, in the light that traverses the long
(300 MILLION are catastrophic explosions est path. The difference in the arrival
LIGHT-YEARS)
that mark the death of certain times reveals the difference in length be
kinds of stars. Type Ia super tween the two light paths. By applying a
10.0 novae, astronomers believe, oc theoretical model of the mass distribu
cur in double star systems in tion of the galaxy, astronomers can cal
which one of the stars is a culate a value for the Hubble constant.
8.5 very dense object known as a The second method makes use of a
white dwarf. The explosion is phenomenon known as the Sunyaev
triggered when mass from the Zel'dovich (SZ) effect. When photons
5.0 companion star is transferred from the microwave background travel
to the white dwarf. Because su through galaxy clusters, they can gain
3 15 30 pernovae release tremendous energy as they scatter off the hot plas
DISTANCE ( MILLIONS OF LIGHT YEARS)
amounts of radiation, astrono ma (x-ray) electrons found in the clus
mers should be able to observe ters. The net result of the scattering is a
)EAK ABSOLUTE BRIGHTNESS of a type Ia
supernovae perhaps as far away decrease in the microwave background
,upemova, theory predicts, is constant, and
as five billion light-years, that toward the position of the cluster. By
ts apparent brightness is therefore related
is, a distance spanning a radi comparing the microwave and x-ray
o its distance from the earth. Yet astrono
us of half the visible universe. distributions, a distance to the cluster
ners have been able to make only one
Type Ia supernovae make can be inferred. To determine the dis
neasurement to calibrate this distance scale.
good distance indicators be tance, however, astronomers must also
cause at the peak of their know the average density of the elec
brightness, they all are be- trons, their distribution and their tem
the lurrlinosities of planetary nebulae lieved to produce roughly the same perature, and they must have an accu
do not exceed a well-defined, upper lim amount of light. Using this information, rate measure of the decrement in the
it. To determine the distance to a gal astronomers can infer their distance. temperature of the microwave back
axy, they simply measured the apparent Unfortunately, supernovae are very ground. By calculating the distance to
luminosities of the brightest planetary rare events, making both their discovery the cluster and measuring its recession
nebulae in that galaxy. To calibrate their and especially their calibration extreme al velOCity, astronomers can then obtain
method, they used galaxies with distanc ly difficult. Because they occur so infre the Hubble constant.
es determined by Cepheids. They found quently, the chance of a type Ia super The SZ method and the gravitation
that this technique produces distance novae occurring in a galaxy near enough al-lenSing technique are promising but
measurements that agree very well with where Cepheids can also be measured is have not yet been tested rigorously. To
the Tully-Fisher method in cases where very low. In fact, it was only during this assess the uncertainties in these tech
both methods have been applied. past year that Sandage and his col niques, researchers must find more ob
The second method, developed by leagues obtained, for the first time, a di jects with the required characteristics.
John L. Tonry of the Massachusetts Insti rect distance to a galaxy known to have The debate continues as to the best
tute of Technology and his colleagues, harbored a type Ia supernova. To do so, method for determining distances to
exploits the fact that nearby galaxies ap Sandage's team made observations of remote galaxies. Consequently, astron
pear grainy, whereas remote galaxies are Cepheids using the Hubble Space Tele omers hold many conflicting opinions
more uniform in their surface brightness scope. Although their work represents a about what the best current estimate is
distribution. The graininess decreases major advance, a single result is still infor the Hubble constant. Sandage and


more mass than that which can be at The controversy over the value for the
tributed to luminous matter. A very ac Hubble constant may be settled as as
tive area of cosmological research is tronomers continue to use the Hubble
the search for this additional "dark" Space Telescope. In April 1990 the tele
matter in the universe. To answer the scope named in honor of Edwin Hubble
question about the ultimate fate of the was launched into orbit around the
universe unambiguously, however, cos earth [see "Early Results from the Hub
mologists require not only a knowledge ble Space Telescope," by Eric J. Chais
of the Hubble constant and the average son; SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, June]. The
mass density of the universe but also space telescope has the potential to re
an independent measure of the age of solve individual stars at distances 10
the universe. These three quantities are times farther than can be done from the
needed to specify uniquely the geome ground. It therefore provides the oppor
try and the evolution of the universe. tunity to discover Cepheids in a volume
If the Hubble constant turns out to of space 1,000 times larger than the
be high, it would have profound impli region that can be routinely accessed
cations for our understanding of the from ground-based telescopes.
evolution of galaxies and the universe. One of the highest priorities of Hub
A Hubble constant of 80 km/s/Mpc ble is to discover Cepheids in galaxies as
yields an age estimate of from eight to far away as the Virgo cluster (about 50
12 billion years (allowing for uncertain million light-years). The Cepheids could
HENRIETIA S. LEAvrrr of Harvard Col
lege Observatory found, in 1908, a cor
ty in the value for the average density be used to determine the distances to
relation between the period of a Cepheid of the universe). These estimates are all those galaxies, thereby calibrating vari
variable and its absolute brightness. This shorter than what theoretical models ous secondary distance indicators. Such
correlation allows astronomers to mea suggest for the age of old stellar sys observations could greatly improve mea
sure distances to the nearest galaxies. tems known as globular clusters. Glob surements of the Hubble constant.
ular clusters are believed to be among
S
the first objects to form in our galaxy, ome time ago several colleagues
his collaborators have reported a pre and their age is estimated to be between and I were awarded sufficient ob
liminary value of 45 km/s/Mpc using 13 and 17 billion years. Obviously, the serving time on Hubble to find
the type la supernova method. The SZ ages of the globular clusters cannot be new Cepheids in more distant galaxies.
method and the gravitational-lensing older than the age of the universe itself. In 1991 we began our first observations
technique also support a low value for The age estimates for globular clus of the nearby galaxy M8 1. We identified
the Hubble constant. ters are often cited as a reason for pre more than 20 new Cepheids and ob
My colleagues and I derived a best es ferring, a priori, a low value for the Hub tained a spectacular set of light curves.
timate by using the most recent Cepheid ble constant and therefore an older age Unfortunately, the telescope has not
measurements individually to calibrate for the universe. Some astronomers ar performed as expected because of the
the infrared Tully-Fisher relation, the gue, however, that the theoretical mod spherical aberration of the primary mir
planetary nebula technique and also the els of globular clusters on which these ror, and most of the program has been
surface-brightness fluctuation method. estimates depend may not be complete delayed until the telescope optics have
These three independent techniques give and may be based on inaccurate as been corrected (currently planned to oc
results that are in excellent agreement: sumptions. For instance, the models rely cur in December 1993).
they yield a high value for the Hubble on knowing the precise ratios of certain Scientists have many reasons to be
constant, of about 80 km/s/Mpc. elements present in globular clusters, optimistic that the upcoming decade
particularly oxygen and iron. Moreover, may allow us to resolve the current con
O
ur measurements and those of accurate ages require accurate measures troversy over the age of the universe
our colleagues have many im of luminosities of globular cluster stars, and to chart the course of its evolution.
plications for the age, evolution which in turn require accurate measure But the history of science suggests that
and fate of the universe. A low value for ments of the distances to the globular we are unlikely to be the last genera
the Hubble constant implies an old age clusters. Considering that both the mea tion to wrestle with these challenges.
for the universe, whereas a high value surements of the Hubble constant and
suggests a young age. In particular, a the models and distances for globular
Hubble constant of 100 km/s/Mpc in clusters may contain errors, astrono FURTHER READING
dicates the universe is about seven to mers cannot easily judge the seriousness MAN DISCOVERS THE GALAXIE S. R. Ber
10 billion years old (depending on the of the apparent age discrepancy between endzen, R. Hart and D. Seeley. Science
amount of matter in the universe and History Publications, 1976.

the universe and globular clusters.
THE COSMOLOGICAL DISTANCE LADDER:
the corresponding deceleration caused A high value for the Hubble constant
DISTANCE AND TIME IN THE UNIVERSE.
by that matter). A value of 50 km/s/ raises another potentially serious prob
Michael Rowan-Robinson. W. H. Free
Mpc suggests, however, an age of IS to lem: it disagrees with standard theories man and Company, 1985.
20 billion years. of how galaxies are formed and distrib THE CEPHEID DISTANCE SCALE. Barry F.
And what of the ultimate fate of the uted in space. For example, the theories Madore and Wendy L. Freedman in Pub
universe? If the average density of mat make predictions about how much time lications of the Astronomical Society of
ter in the universe is low, as current ob is required to form the large-scale clus the PaCific, Vol. 103, No. 667, pages
933-957; September 1991.
servational estimates indicate, the cur tering that has been observed in the dis
LONELY HEARTS OF THE COSMOS: THE
rent standard cosmological model pre tribution of galaxies. If the Hubble con
SCIENTIFIC QUEST FOR THE SECRET OF
dicts that the expansion of the universe stant is large (that is, the universe is THE UNIVERSE. Dennis Overbye. Harper
will continue forever. Nevertheless, the young), the models cannot reproduce Collins Publishers, 1991.
ory suggests that the universe contains the observed distribution of galaxies.


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The Risks of Software
Programming bugs have disrupted telephone service and delayed shuttle
launches. An inherent uncertainty in reliability may mean limiting
a computer's role, especially in systems where software is critical for safety
by Bev Littlewood and Lorenzo Strigini
M
OSt of us have experienced some has made design reliability less serious
kind of problem related to com than it has become for software. The
puter failure: a bill mailed in er concerns expressed here, incidentally,
ror or a day's work destroyed by some go far beyond exotic military and aero
mysterious glitch in a desktop comput space products. Complex software is
er. Such nuisances, often caused by soft finding critical roles in more mundane
ware faults, or "bugs," are merely incon areas, such as four-wheel steering and
venient when compared with the conse antilock braking in automobiles.
quences of computer failures in critical In this article we examine some major
systems. Software bugs caused the se reasons for the uncertainty concerning
ries of large-scale outages of telephone software reliability and argue that our
service in the U.S. A software problem ability to measure it falls far short of the
may have prevented the Patriot missile levels that are sometimes required. In
system from tracking the Iraqi Scud critical systems, such as the safety sys
missile that killed 28 American soldiers tems of a dangerous chemical plant, it
during the Gulf War. Indeed, software may be that the appropriate level of
faults are generally more insidious and safety will be guaranteed only if the role
much more difficult to handle than are of software is limited.
physical defects.
I
The problems essentially arise from n theory at least, software can be
complexity, which increases the possi made that is free of defects. Unlike
bility that design faults will persist and materials and machinery, software
emerge in the final product. Convention does not wear out. All design defects are
al engineering has made great strides in present from the time the software is
the understanding and control of phys loaded into the computer. In principle,
ical problems. Although design faults these faults could be removed once
are sometimes present in material prod and for all. Furthermore, mathematical
ucts that do not contain computers, the proof should enable programmers to
relative simplicity of such machines guarantee correctness.
Yet the goal of perfect software re
mains elusive. Despite rigorous and sys
tematic testing, most large programs
BEV UITLEWOOD and LORENZO
contain some residual bugs when de
STRIGINI collaborate as members of the
livered. The reason for this is the com
project Predictably Dependable Comput
ing Systems (PDCS), a research effort on plexity of the source code. A program
computer dependability that brings to of only a few hundred lines may con
gether researchers from European coun tain tens of decisions, allowing for thou
tries. Littlewood received his Ph.D. in sands of alternative paths of execu
computer science and statistics from the tion (programs for fairly critical applica
City University in London, where he is
tions vary between tens and millions of
the director of the Centre for Software
lines of code). A program can make the
Reliability. Strigini, a researcher at the
Institute for Information Processing (IEI)
wrong decision because the particular
of Italy's National Research Council inputs that triggered the problem had
(CNR), received his laurea in electronic not been used during the test phase,
engineering from the University of Pisa. when defects could be corrected. The
The work of the authors in this field was situation responsible for such inputs
partially funded by the Commission of
may even have been misunderstood or
the European Communities as part of the
unanticipated: the designer either "cor
PDCS project. The authors thank the
rectly" programmed the wrong reaction
other workers in PDCS, discussions with
whom have been valuable in forming the or failed to take the situation into ac
views expressed here. count altogether. This type of bug is the PATRIOT MISSILE streaks over Tel Aviv
most difficult to eradicate. to intercept an incoming Iraqi Scud rnis-


In addition, specifications often to be turned off and restarted often the state of a digital computer (chang
change during system development, as enough for the accumulated error never ing a bit from 0 to 1, for instance) may
the intended purpose of the system is to become dangerous. Because the sys produce a radical response. A single in
modified or becomes better understood. tem was used in an unintended way, correct character in the speCification of
Such changes may have implications a minor inaccuracy became a serious a control program for an Atlas rocket,
that ripple through all parts of a sys problem. carrying the first U.S. interplanetary
tem, making the previous design inade The intrinsic behavior of digital sys spacecraft, Mariner 1, ultimately caused
quate. Furthermore, real use may still tems also hinders the creation of com the vehicle to veer off course. Both rock
differ from intended purpose. Failures pletely reliable software. Many physical et and spacecraft had to be destroyed
of Patriot missiles to intercept Scud systems are fundamentally continuous shortly after launch.
missiles have been attributed to an ac in that they are described by "well-be In all other branches of engineering,
cumulation of inaccuracies in the inter haved" functions-that is, very small simplicity and gradual change consti
nal time-keeping of a computer. Yet the changes in stimuli produce very small tute the main elements of trustworthy
computer was performing according to differences in responses. In contrast, design. But in software engineering the
specifications: the system was meant the smallest possible perturbation to unprecedented degrees of novelty and
sile during the 1991 Gulf War. On some occasions the software venting the missiles from locating and destroying their Scud
controlling the Patriot's tracking system may have failed, pre- targets. One such failure led to the deaths of 28 U.S. soldiers.


than are civilian ones. Survival in com
(iJ 5,000 bat depends on high performance,
a:
i1i -1,600 which forbids conservative design, and
C a new computer system may improve
UJ 500
a: the airplane's chances even if it is less
::> safe than computers used in commer
-I -160
cial airplanes. Similarly, in the design
u..
50
0 of a fly-by-wire civilian aircraft, such as
_,:
I-
UJ the Airbus A320 or the Boeing 777, the
:E possibility that software may cause ac
i=
Z cidents has to be weighed against the
<t: likelihood that it may avoid some mis
UJ -1.6
:E
haps that would otherwise be caused
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
by pilot error or equipment failure.
PERCENTAGE OF ALL FAULTS We believe that there are severe re
strictions on the levels of confidence
20 -----------------------------------------,ro--- 1 .00 that one can justifiably place in the reli
s:
ability of software. To explain this point
17.5 0.88
of view, we need to consider the differ

(jJ
a: zm
::> 15 0.75 :j ent sources of evidence that support
0 s:
1-2 mS: confidence in software. The most obvi
63 ;;)12.5 0.68 --I ous is testing: running the program, di
01- rri rectly observing its behavior and remov
UJ-I 10 0.50 0
UJ::>
z<t:
u..
rl) ing bugs whenever they show up. In
UJUJ 7.5 0.38 this process the reliability of the soft
:E> mm ware will grow, and the data collected
0.25 I
i=0
:E 5
UJ 00 can now generally be used, via sophis
a:
2.5 0.13 ticated statistical extrapolation tech-
!!2 niques, to obtain accurate measures of
0 o how reliable the program has become.
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
Unfortunately, this approach works
NUMBER OF FAULTS REMOVED
only when the reliability requirements
SOFIWARE FAULTS persist even in well-debugged programs. Edward N. Adams of are fairly modest (say, in the range of
mM found that bugs that remained in a system were primarily "S,OOO-year" bugs one failure every few years) when com
that is, each of them would produce a failure only once in S,OOO years (top). Such pared with the requirements often set
faults make debugging an exercise in diminishing returns: in the test of a military for critical applications. To have confi
command-and-control system (bottom), the time needed to remove the bugs begins dence at a level such as 10-9 failure per
to outpace by far the resulting improvement in the estimated reliability, measured hour, we would need to execute the pro
in terms of estimated achieved mean time to failure. For visual clarity, the graphs gram for very many multiples of 109
have been plotted on different time scales. hours, or 100,000 years. Clearly, this
task is not possible. In the time spans
for which it is feasible to test, assurance
flexibility that programming affords tion requires special consideration that of the safety would fall many orders of
tempt workers to ignore these princi lies beyond the scope of this article magnitude short of what is needed.
ples. Entirely new applications can be [see "Achieving Electronic Privacy," by The problem here is a law of dimin
designed with apparent ease, giving a David Chaum; SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, ishing returns. When we continue de
false sense of security to developers and August]. bugging a program for a very long time,
clients who are not familiar with prob Given that perfect software is a prac eventually the bugs found are so "small"
lems specific to software. Even the ad tical impossibility, how can we decide that fixing them has virtually no effect
dition of novel features to a program whether a program is as reliable as it is on the overall reliability or safety. Ed
may produce unexpected changes in supposed to be? First, safety require ward N. Adams of the mM Thomas j.
existing features. ments must be chosen carefully to re Watson Research Center empirically an
flect the nature of the application. These alyzed " bug sizes" over a worldwide
T
he problems of embedding com requirements can vary dramatically from data base that involved the equivalent
plex decision rules in a design one application to another. For exam use of thousands of years of a particu
and forecasting the behavior of ple, the U.S. requires that its new air lar software system.
complex discontinuous systems are not traffic control system cannot be unavail The most extraordinary discovery was
limited to software. Designers of high able for more than three seconds a year. that about a third of all bugs found were
ly complex digital integrated circuits In civilian airliners, the probability of "S,OOO-year" bugs: each of them pro
encounter similar problems. Software, certain catastrophic failures must be duced a failure only about once in 5,000
however, is still the predominant medi no worse than 10-9 per hour. years of execution (the rates from other
um for embodying extremely complex, In setting reliability requirements for bugs varied by several orders of magni
specialized decision rules. computers, we must also take into ac tude). These rare bugs made up a siz
In addition to unintentional design count any extra benefits that a comput able portion of all faults because bugs
bugs, flaws deliberately introduced to er may produce, because not using a that caused higher failure rates were
compromise a system can cause unac particular system may itself incur harm. encountered, and so removed, earlier.
ceptable system behavior. The issue of For example, military aircraft are by Eventually, only the S,OOO-year bugs will
computer security, privacy and encryp- necessity much more dangerous to fly make the system unreliable, and remov-
64 SCIENI1FIC AMERICAN November 1992


al of one of these will bring negligible that we have thought of all circumstanc ing this process, and we could not rea
improvement in reliability. es that the software will meet. Just as sonably claim the program would nev
Extrapolating from testing and debug the unexpected often defeats us in sys er fail.
ging also implies an unsubstantiated as tem design, so it is in test design. It Another method now widely used (in
sumption-namely, that a bug, once en would be wise to retain an element of avionic and railroad control applica
countered, is simply corrected. In reali skepticism about the representative tions, for instance) to achieve high reli
ty, an attempt to fix a bug sometimes ness of the testing and thus about the ability is fault tolerance, or protective
fails. It may even introduce an entirely accuracy of the figures. redundancy. A typical way of applying
novel fault. Because nothing would be The problem in demonstrating ex redundancy is to have different design
known about the new bug, its effect on treme reliability or safety for any in teams develop several versions of the
the reliability of the system would be dividual piece of software is Simply program. The hope is that if the teams
unbounded. In particular, the system lack of the necessary knowledge. For make mistakes, the errors will be differ
might not even be as reliable as it was complex software, the unpalatable truth ent. Each version of the program pro
before the bug was found. seems to be that there are severe limi vides its "opinion" of the correct output.
Therefore, a prudent course would tations to the confidence one can place The outputs pass to an adjudication
be to discount completely the histo in a program. Merely observing a pro phase, which produces a single output
ry prior to the last failure. This precau gram's behavior is not the way to be that would be correct if the majority of
tion, critically important in situations sure that it will function properly for versions gave the correct result.
that involve safety, would require an 100,000 years. How else might we ac Some evidence exists that such de
j\:
evaluator to treat the software after the quire such confidence? sign diversity delivers high reliability
last fix as if it were a completely new in a cost-effective manner. Different
program. Only the most recent period n obvious prerequisite for high design teams, however, may make the
of error-free working would influence reliability is that software be same mistakes (perhaps because of
judgment about the safety of the pro built with methods that are like commonalities in cultural background)
gram. But even this conservative course ly to achieve reliability. One method or conceptually different mistakes that
of action cannot provide much confi uses "formal" techniques, which rely on happen to make the versions fail on
dence. Our research has shown that un mathematical proofs to guarantee that the same fault. The adjudicator would
der quite plausible mathematical as a program will function according to therefore produce incorrect output.
sumptions, there is only about a 50-50 specification. Indeed, formal techniques To measure the reliability of fault-tol
chance that the program will function have become a topic of wide interest. erant software, it is necessary to gauge
without failure for the same length of Such methods, though currently limit the statistical correlation between fail
time as it had before. ed by practical problems in their scope ures of the different versions. Unfortu
The problem of estimating safety is of application, can effectively avoid pro nately, the task turns out to be as hard
actually even more serious. To have any gramming errors arising in the transla as trying to measure the reliability by
confidence in the numerical results, we tion from the specification to the actu treating the whole system as a single
must subject the program to situations al program. entity-and we have seen the difficulty
it might encounter in reality. This ap Unfortunately, specifications must al of doing that.
proach ensures that inputs causing fail so be formal statements. In other words, So if formal proofs do not enable one
ures are encountered with the same the user's needs would have to be ex to claim that a program will never fail
frequency with which they would in pressed in a mathematical language. and if fault tolerance cannot guarantee
fact arise. In addition, the tester should That task is not simple: it requires a reliability, there seems no choice but to
always be able to decide whether the careful choice of those aspects of the evaluate reliability directly, using meth
program's output is actually correct. real world to be described in the formal ods that are acknowledged to be of lim
The problems here are similar to those language and an understanding of both ited adequacy. How do the regulatory
of designing and implementing the the detailed practical problems of the authorities and software users deal with
software itself. To construct an accurate application and of the formal language. this uncertainty?
test environment, we need to be sure Errors would likely be introduced dur- There are three approaches. The first
INPUT OUTPUT
TO FROM
SYSTEM SYSTEM
DESIGN DIVERSITY helps to increase the reliability of soft the median value produced by the replicas or the value "vot
ware systems. Each program version, or replica, is developed ed for" by a majority. The adjudicator could be another re
independently by different design teams. The "adjudicator" dundant system or could consist of noncomputer technolo
decides the actual output of the system by using, for example, gy, such as hydraulic actuators.


classifies design-caused failures as "non than 10-9 per hour of flight. Software, safety. Instead the commission regards
quantifiable" errors and avoids specify however, is explicitly excluded from a correct engineering approach-tight
ing requirements for the software. This this circular, "because it is not feasible management, thorough reviews and
method is now in fairly wide use. For to assess the number or kinds of soft tests, and analysis of previous errors
instance, in civil aviation, the u.s. Fed ware errors, if any, that may remain af as more critical than quantitative meth
eral Aviation Administration Advisory ter the completion of system design, ods. The basic message of RTCA/DO-
Circular 2S.1309-1A describes "accept development, and test." 178A "is that designers must take a dis
able" means for showing compliance The widely used document of the Ra Ciplined approach to software: require
with some federal aviation regulations. dio Technical Commission for Aeronau ments definition, design, development,
It states that catastrophic failure condi tics, RTCA/DO-178A, similarly avoids testing, configuration management and
tions (the worst category) must be "so software measures. The document, documentation." That is, the best assur
unlikely that they are not anticipated which gives guidelines for manufactur ance of reliability is to verify that ut
to occur during the entire operational ers who must seek certification by avi most care was used in the design.
life of all airplanes of one type." The ation authorities, expliCitly refuses to How good is such assurance? Ar
suggested quantitative expression is mandate quantitative terms or meth guably, not very good: there is no evi
the probability of failure of not more ods for evaluating software reliability or dence that superior design and produc-
The Nature of Software Failure
S
oftware occasionally fails because it contains design whenever the same input is presented. For most programs,
faults. Some have argued that such failures are sys testing for all possible inputs would require billions of bil
tematic-that is, because writing software is a pure lions of y ears-hence, the need to infer failure probabili
ly logical exercise, there is nothing intrinsically uncertain ties from testing on a sample of inputs.
about it. If enough is known about the inputs, the pro We would like to know when the program will next fail,
gram's behavior would be completely deterministic. We but that is not possible because of the inherent uncertain
believe, however, that software failures cannot be mathe ty in the process. First, uncertainty arises from the phYSi
matically described only in deterministic terms. In fact, cal mechanisms that determine the succession of inputs
we think that describing the nature of software failures re (called the trajectory in the input space). We can never be
quires a probabilistic treatment, just as we use statistics sure which inputs will be selected in the future, and differ
to describe how often, on average, electrical or mechani ent inputs will have different chances of being selected.
cal devices fail. Second, we are uncertain about the sizes and locations of
To see why, consider all the possible inputs (called the the fault regions in the input space. Even if we knew the
input space) that the software might encounter in its life trajectory, we would still not know when the program
(above). An input for an operation of the software is a set would encounter a fault.
of digital data (numbers) read from the outside world and T herefore, we must describe our belief about the future
from information already stored in the computer's mem failure behavior of the program in terms of probabilities.
ory. In the figure above, the input space is shown in the We might ask what is the probability that we can survive a
two dimensions of the printed page, but in practice the particular number of inputs before failure. Or we might
space would usually consist of many dimensions. ask what the probability is that a randomly selected input
Here the input space contains three fault zones num causes a failure. Both questions can often easily be turned
bered 1 to 3. Input x lies in fault 2, that is, it would cause into a time-based measure of reliability-that is, the prob
the program to produce an unacceptable output. On the ability that the program will execute perfectly for a partic
other hand, the program can successfully execute input ular length of time.
y, which does not lie in any fault zone. In conclusion, we are forced to consider the process of
A program is tested by executing it with many inputs successive failures of a program to be just as "random" as
and checking whether the results are correct. If a right an that of a hardware device. The use of a probability-based
swer is produced during testing, it will also be produced reliability measure is therefore inevitable.


It was voted "Best in Show" at the
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It must be Japanese.

It has more horsepower than the Acura
Legend, and BMW 525i, and more torque
than Nissan 300ZX. Its German, right?

It has more interior room
than any Lexus, Acura, Irrfiniti or
Mercedes. Is itAmerican?

It comes with dual air bags and ABS stanc
and a built--in fold--down c

d. It offers computerized traction control,
ld seat. Is it from Sweden?

Where this car is made is not nee
Introducing the C
As AutoWeek magazine puts it, this car "has traits that render meaningless such adjectives as European, Japanese
and American." It's world class. Which simply means it can compete with anything the world has to offer,
regardless of national origin. Its 3.5-liter, 24-valve overhead cam V-6 makes it the rival of any four-door
sedan in any showroom in the country. When it comes to handling, AutoWeek adds: "Chrysler didn't just target
what was out there. It anticipated where the world would be and aimed beyond that mark. It hit where it aimed."
In the realm of safety, the Chrysler Concorde has driver and passenger air bags and anti-lock four-wheel disc
See limited warranties at dealer. Restrictions apply. 3/36 excludes normal maintenance. adjustments and wear items. *MSRP example. Tide, taxes and destination fee ext"

y as important as where its sold.
rysler Concorde.
brakes as standard equipment. (Less than 5% of cars on the market can make that claim.) Fit and finish are
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tion methods consistently yield supe
rior products. We cannot even be cer
tain whether the best current methods
ever produce sufficient reliability for the
more demanding applications.
Eschewing the quantification of soft
ware safety poses a serious limitation
for many potentially dangerous sys
tems, especially those that require an
overall probabilistic risk assessment
before operation. Probabilities can be
predicted with reasonable accuracy for
physical failures caused by stress and
wear. But this accuracy cannot be used
in efforts to assess the risk that the en
tire system (that is, hardware and soft
ware) will fail if nothing more precise
can be said other than that the best
effort was made to avoid mistakes. Sim
ply mandating the use of "best practice"
does not solve the problem. We hasten SIZEWELL B will be the first nuclear reactor in the U.K. to contain both conventional
to add that it would be foolish to aban and software-based protection systems for emergency shutdowns. Critics argue that
don techniques known to improve reli the complexity of the software system-it relies on hundreds of microprocessors
ability and safety just because we do and more than 100,000 lines of code-makes it difficult to ensure reactor safety.
not know exactly how much they help.
Standards that encourage their use are
certainly beneficial, but they do not geons are known to have fairly high However it is obtained, an extensive
solve the problem of knowing that the failure rates, and it would seem natu collection of data would in time help to
software has the required safety. ral to accept a computerized alternative quantify the efficacy of different pro
The second-and we think, better if the device is shown to be as good as duction and validation techniques. The
approach would require that the system or only slightly better than the human information would help establish more
be designed so the role of software in physician. Indeed, in the near future realistic rules for gauging the trustwor
it is not too critical. "Not too critical" robotic surgeons will probably perform thiness of software systems. Thus, for
here means that the required software operations that are beyond the capabil software that is not fully tested statisti
reliability is sufficiently modest so the ities of humans. cally, the acceptable claims of safety
reliability can be demonstrated before could be tied to expliCit upper bounds
T
the system is deployed. This approach he three approaches to regulating that would depend on the complexity of
has been taken for the new Sizewell B software safety may seem rather the program. Such an approach might
nuclear reactor in the U.K., where only disappOinting. Each sets limits on allow us to justify claims for the re
a 10-4 probability of failure on demand either the degree of safety in the system liability and safety of software beyond
is needed from the software-based pro or the amount of complexity in the pro what is now believable.
tection system. gram. Perhaps the only way to learn In the meantime, we should remain
There are well-established meth more about the necessary compromis wary of any dramatic claims of reliabil
ods for limiting the criticality of any es between safety and complexity is to ity. Considering the levels of complex
one component. For example, an indus study the failures (or lack thereof ) of ity that software has made pOSSible, we
trial plant whose operations are con software in operation. believe being skeptical is the safest
trolled primarily by computers may be Unfortunately, there is a paucity of course of action.
equipped with safety systems that do data from which to fashion statistical
not depend on any software or other predictions. Information on software
complex design. A safety or backup sys failure is seldom made public. Compa FURTHER READING
tem usually performs simpler functions nies fear that sharing such knowledge
EVALUATION OF SAFETY-CRITICAL SOFT
than does the main control system, so it would harm their competitive stance. WARE. David L. Parnas, A. John van
can be built more reliably. Safety is pos They worry even more that publishing it Schouwen and Shu Po Kwan in Commu
sible if the backup systems are com would antagonize public opinion. People nications of the ACM, Vol. 33, No.6,
pletely separated from the main sys might see the detection of a software pages 636-648; June 1990.
tems. They could be built with different fault as an indication of low production SOFTWARE SAFETY IN EMBEDDED COM
PUTER SYSTEMS. Nancy G. Leveson in
technology or use alternative sensors, standards, even though it may actually
Communications of the ACM, Vol. 34,
actuators and power sources. Then the attest to a very thorough procedure ap
No. 2, pages 34-46; February 1991.
probability that both primary and back plied to very high quality software. But FORUM ON RISKS TO THE PuBuc IN COM
up (or safety) systems will fail simultane secrecy can only allow expectations of PUTERS AND RELATED SYSTEMS. Moder-
ously may be justifiably considered low. safety to climb to increasingly unrealis ated by Peter Neumann. Available as
The third approach is simply to ac tic levels. Some investigators have sug the usenet newsgroup camp.risks, or
cept the current limitations of software gested that the government make man by request on the internet from risks
and live with a more modest overall request@csl.srLcam.

datory the logging and disclosing of fail
RISKS TO THE PuBuc IN COMPUTERS AND
system safety. After all, society some ure data in critical software systems.
RELATED SYSTEMS. Regular column edit
times demands extremely high safety Such regulations would remove the
ed by Peter Neumann in Communica
for what may be irrational reasons. Med fear that companies volunteering the tions of the ACM.
ical systems are a good example. Sur- information would be hurt.


SCIENCE IN PICTURES
Visualizing
Biological Molecules
Computer-generated images are aiding research in molecular
structure and helping to elucidate the complex chemistry of life
by Arthur ]. Olson and David S. Goodsell
T
he eye, which is called the window of the soul, is the alternative approach to determining the structure of a mol
chief means whereby the understanding may most ecule. A solution containing the molecule of interest is placed
fully and abundantly appreciate the infinite works of in a powerful magnetic field. The sample is then exposed to
nature." The words of Leonardo da Vinci eloquently capture pulses of radio waves; nuclei of certain atoms in the molecule
the intimate relation between vision and comprehension. Yet respond by emitting their own radio waves at frequencies de
modern science often confronts objects that are invisible to termined by their local chemical environments. These fre
the human eye. Chemists and biochemists in particular have quencies are interpreted to disclose the approximate distanc
been thwarted by the fact that they cannot see the molecules es between atoms in the molecule. By combining those con
they endeavor to study. The atomic details of molecules can straints with the known chemical properties of the molecule,
not be discerned even through electron microscopes. one can deduce the positions of the constituent atoms.
In recent years, however, computer technology has made
it possible to simulate convincing, scientifically accurate pic
tures of molecules. Such images allow biochemists and mo SIMUIATED IMAGES of the molecular world were created by
lecular biologists to explore, in a familiar visual way, the means of computer graphics. A picture of the human immuno
deficiency virus (below), based on electron microscope data
complex molecules built by cells. Computer graphics help to
from U. Skoglund of the Karolinska Institute and S. Hoglund
disclose, for example, how antibodies seek out foreign mole
of Uppsala University, shows a cone-shaped core containing
cules and how enzymes provide exactly the right environment
genetic material surrounded by a spherical envelope. A view
to initiate a chemical reaction. A clear picture of the structure
of a drug binding to DNA (right) was drawn using x-ray crys
of a molecule can carry great conceptual weight. One such tallographic data collected by R. E. Dickerson of U.C. L. A. The
image-the diagram of the double-helix shape of DNA pub drug appears as a region of high electron density (green and
lished by James Watson and Francis Crick-revolutionized yellow) filling the narrow groove of the DNA (dark spheres).
understanding of human heredity and genetic disease.
Scientists gather the raw data for molecular images in sev
eral ways. X-ray crystallography is currently the most suc
cessful. A researcher irradiates a crystal composed of a par
ticular molecule with an intense beam of x-rays, which scat
ter into a distinctive pattern. The pattern is mathematically
analyzed to reveal the spatial distribution of electrons and,
by extension, the location of every atom in the molecule.
Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy offers an
ARTHUR J. OLSON and DAVID S. GOODSELL are working to

expand the role of computer graphics for studying the function
and structure of large biological molecules. Olson received his
Ph.D. from the University of California, Berkeley, in 1975 and
conducted postdoctoral research at Harvard University, where
he used xray crystallography to study the structure of viruses.
In 1981 he founded the Molecular Graphics Laboratory at the
Research Institute of Scripps Clinic in La Jolla, Calif. Olson's bio
chemical films and molecular images have appeared in many
popular and technical settings. Goodsell received his Ph.D. in
1987 from the University of California, Los Angeles, where he
also studied x-ray crystallography. He then joined Olson's labo
ratory, developing molecular rendering techniques and compu
tational methods for drug design. Goodsell recently returned to
U.C.L.A. to continue his work in crystallography.
76 SCIENTIFIC AMERlCAN November 1992



X-RAY CRYSTALLOGRAPHY provides the information need electron density (right) illustrates the locations of the atoms
ed to simulate a picture of a molecule. A crystal of DNA scat in the molecule; an unusual guanine-adenine mispair is seen
ters x-rays in a characteristic pattern (left). Computer analysis here. A pixel-based image (opposite page) gives a better feel
of the pattern can reveal the distribution of electrons in each ing for the three-dimensional arrangement of the atoms but
DNA molecule. A cage of lines drawn around regions of high requires more time to compute.
Within the past few years, materials scientists have devel ment must be assigned a color value; a typical monitor con
oped a third method for observing the atoms in molecules, tains more than one million pixels. But pixel displays can sim
called scanning probe microscopy. A molecule is immobi ulate effects such as shading and shadowing, which add to the
lized on a flat surface, and a needle whose tip is only a few realism of the pictures.
atoms wide is scanned across the surface. A feedback loop al To construct a molecular image, researchers begin by col
lows the tip to follow the exact contour of each atom, tracing lecting information on the structure of the molecule, most of
out its shape. Repeated passes of the needle gradually build ten by means of x-ray crystallography. X-rays scatter most
up a three-dimensional contour of one side of the molecule. strongly where the electron density is highest-that is, around
All three techniques yield vast amounts of data that are the atoms in the molecule. Hence, regions that exhibit high
far easier to interpret if recast into a visual form. Before the electron densities are atoms; regions having low densities
widespread use of computers, researchers laboriously sifted are empty space. (Electron microscopy can furnish similar
through information on strip charts, oscilloscopes and pho but coarser three-dimensional maps of electron density that
tographs and then built brass or plastic models based on the do not resolve individual atoms.)
results. Because of the huge amount of work involved, scien Just as cartographers draw lines of constant elevation on
tists were effectively limited to studying small molecules a map to segregate hills and valleys, crystallographers use
containing no more than a few dozen atoms. computer graphics to draw a boundary surface through the
Researchers interested in biological molecules, which con data, separating atoms from empty space. The surface may
tain hundreds to hundreds of thousands of atoms, were be portrayed as a thick mesh of lines that resembles a bird
therefore avid users of the first computers. In 1947 Raymond cage. Using a graphics program, the scientist then fits a chain
Pipinsky of Pennsylvania State University developed an ana of atoms inside the surface, following the convoluted con
log machine, XRAC, to transform his x-ray crystallographic tours indicated by the electron density data.
data into an intelligible molecular picture. As computers Pixel-based images provide a clearer view of the crystal
have advanced, so too has the magnitude of the scientific lographic results. For example, one can assign specific col
problems to which they are applied. Modern digital comput ors and optical properties to various values of the data. In
ers, used in conjunction with computer graphics, enable sci the DNA electron density map shown on the previous page,
entists to produce detailed pictures of enormous molecules, parts of the molecule having high values of electron density
including enzymes, antibodies and even entire viruses. are rendered opaque and colored, whereas regions of low
Two conceptually distinct graphic approaches are com density appear transparent. Through a process known as
monly used to create pictures of molecules. One builds up an volume rendering, the graphics software forms an image
image out of sets of lines drawn from point to point. The that simulates how light would travel through an object pos
other method generates an image from a dense map of dots, sessing those optical properties. Unfortunately, volume-ren
or pixels. Each technique has its own advantages and draw dered images require far more time to calculate than do the
backs. Because a line can be described by merely two posi line-based images. Clarity is gained at the cost of speed of
tions, line-based displays can draw and redraw an image manipulating the view of the molecule.
rapidly, letting an investigator manipulate the image interac Once the coordinates of the constituent atoms are known,
tively. Images drawn on pixel-based displays (usually a col the computer offers a host of techniques by which to analyze
or monitor) take longer to generate, because each picture ele- a molecule. Molecular graphics can focus and simplify the pic-


ture of the molecule while maintaining all the relevant infor National Institutes of Health, and Frederic M. Richards of
mation. Biochemists often find it enlightening to look at the Yale University took a different approach and calculated
way a protein chain folds into a compact molecule. Jane S. what a molecule might look like to a water molecule. They
Richardson of Duke University popularized a simple but ef used a computer program to roll an imaginary water mol
fective graphic representation that follows the overall fold ecule around all sides of a molecule, noting where the water
ing of the protein but eliminates the confusing tangle of in touched. In this way, they derived a picture that shows the
dividual atoms. The resulting ribbon diagram facilitates clas molecule's surface but omits those regions that are se
sifying the many diverse protein structures into a limited questered from surrounding water molecules. Such a picture
number of distinct folding motifs. helps to elucidate, for instance, how proteins interact with
Computers also assist the study of the shape of a biological the water always present in living systems.
molecule, which in turn determines how it interacts with other The geometric arrangement of atoms is only one aspect
molecules. The easiest way to depict the outer topography of of a molecule's nature; the chemical and physical properties
a molecule is to create a space-filling diagram. In this proce of each atom-its charge, size and interactions with other
dure the computer draws atoms in the molecule as spheres atoms-are also important. Peter]. Goodford of the Univer
whose radii reflect how close they may approach one another. sity of Oxford has developed a method to determine how a
Placing all the spheres in their proper locations renders a high biological molecule chemically interacts with atoms in oth
ly lucid image of the entire molecule. Coloring each atom ac er molecules. He sequentially places a computer-simulated
cording to its chemical nature conveys still more information. probe atom at various locations around the molecule. At
Space-filling pictures show a molecule as it might appear each point, the computer calculates the chemical interaction
if it were magnified to visible size. B. K. Lee, now at the between probe and molecule, yielding a catalogue of places


MOLECULAR DESIGN is a rapidly growing application of mo
lecular computer graphics. HIV protease (above), a molecule
crucial to the maturation of the virus, offers an attractive tar
get for drug design. The protein backbone is shown in blue;
the site of catalytic activity is green. An inhibitor drug (pur
ple) binds at the active site of the protease, preventing normal
viral function. The data for this model are from A. Wlodawer
of the National Cancer Institute. In another experiment, work
ers fabricated a customized enzyme (left) by grafting a site to
bind a metal ion (small red sphere) onto an antibody that binds
to the chemical fluorescein (blue dotted region).
One of the most exciting applications of the new graphics

techniques lies in computer-aided molecular design. As sci
entists have improved their understanding of biological mol
ecules, they have increasingly sought to modify specific mol
ecules to suit a particular need. Designing antibiotic drugs,
constructing novel proteins and engineering useful microor
ganisms are just a few of the goals bioengineers are pursu
favorable and unfavorable to the probe atom. Pictures pro ing to improve human health and the quality of life.
duced using this type of analysis can highlight the chemical Computer graphics are assisting in the design of drugs to
"hot spots" where an atom is likely to bind. treat diverse disorders, including hypertension, emphysema,
Computer graphics can also capture the elusive dynamic glaucoma and various forms of cancer. Researchers use com
behavior of biological molecules. In trillionths of a second, puter graphics to test a wide range of candidate drugs be
molecules vibrate, twist and rotate. Their motions are invisible fore beginning the time-consuming process of synthesis and
to x-ray crystallography and NMR spectroscopy, because such laboratory testing. One particularly promising effort involves
experiments take hours or days to perform. Dynamic com the design of antiviral agents to control the effects of the hu
puter simulations, however, can follow the motions of a mol man immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Medical researchers have
ecule through thousands of time steps, generating a corre isolated a number of proteins from the virus and determined
sponding number of snapshots of the changing structure. their structures. Among these proteins are HIV reverse tran
The researcher may then scroll through the entire simulation, scriptase, the molecule that translates viral RNA into DNA so
stopping at leisure to examine the most interesting time that it can incorporate itself in the host cell's DNA, and HIV
steps. The best frames may be combined into a short movie protease, a crucial molecule that allows the virus to mature
that depicts the molecule's dynamics. and to cause further infection.


MOLECULAR STRUCTURE AND FUNCTION can be studied cate the direction of the molecule's electrostatic field (top cen
easily, clearly and accurately using computer graphics. The ter) or by using volume-rendering techniques to display the
top images were drawn on line-based devices, the bottom ones strength of carbon interactions; green indicates regions favor
on pixel-based displays. Researchers may examine the shape able to carbon (bottom center). The extremely rapid internal
of an antibody using a dotted surface (top left) or a series of motions of an antibody may be depicted as a multiple image
solid-looking shaded spheres (bottom left). Computers can por (top right) or as one in a series of snapshots of physically in
tray the binding of an antigen by displaying arrows that indi- teresting moments (bottom right).
Workers have succeeded in crystallizing HIV protease alone a tangible molecular world are themselves becoming a real
and bound with various inhibitor molecules, making it possi ity. Video-display goggles change the view in response to
ble to study them by x-ray crystallography. Computer-based head motions; force-feedback mechanisms let the researcher
analysis of the structures of the molecules has helped identify "feel" the forces acting on the molecule in view.
a growing list of candidate drug compounds. Several of them In a prototype being developed at the University of North
appear effective in laboratory chemical tests and can arrest Carolina under the direction of Frederick P. Brooks, Jr., sci
the growth of HIV in a cell culture. Although issues of toxici entists can use a computerized simulator to test candidate
ty and efficacy in actual patients remain to be solved, at least drugs by feeling how well they fit into a target molecule. An
one computer-designed HIV protease inhibitor-R031-8959, innovative project at that same facility has linked a scanning
fabricated by Hoffmann-La Roche in the U.K.-has shown tunneling microscope with a virtual-reality system. The goal
sufficient promise that it is now being tested in clinical trials. is to enable the scientist to see and feel the atomic details of a
Encouraged by the many advances in the understanding molecule being probed by the microscope. Such systems may
of protein structure and function, Richard A. Lerner and his someday enable humans to interact with the submicroscopic
colleagues at the Research Institute of Scripps Clinic have em world as easily as they do with the world of direct senses.
barked on a particularly ambitious project: designing custom Perhaps the greatest virtue of molecular computer graphics
ized enzymes to catalyze, or facilitate, certain chemical reac lies in its potential to improve scientific communication. High
tions. The researchers are modifying antibodies to act as cat speed data networks will enable workers in different parts
alysts. Antibodies possess a remarkable ability to recognize of the world to examine Simultaneously the latest results in
and distinguish between various molecules, so a catalytic an molecular research. Interactive video will permit students at
tibody could be constructed to aid a carefully selected reac all levels to study molecular structure and function. And so
tion [see "Catalytic Antibodies," by Richard A. Lerner and Al phisticated simulations coupled with realistic graphics will
fonso Tramontano; SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, March 1988]. Spe allow laypeople to obtain, for the first time, a personal feel
Cifically designed catalytic antibodies could one day attack a ing for the complex chemical world within themselves.
virus or break up a blood clot without harming the patient's
own healthy cells.
In collaboration with Victoria A. Roberts, John A. Tainer and FURTHER READING
Elizabeth D. Getzoff, also at Scripps, Lerner has modified an MOLECULAR MODELING SOFTWARE AND METHODS FOR MEDICINAL
antibody to create a chemical site where metal atoms can CHEMISTRY. N. Claude Cohen, jeffrey M. Blaney, Christine Hum
bind. Computer graphics helped to guide the researchers in blet, Peter Gund and David C. Barry in Journal of Medicinal
constructing the site. The ability to add a metal to antibodies Chemistry, Vol. 33, No.3, pages 883-894; March 1990.
is an important step toward the goal of tailor-made catalysts, COMPlJITR GRAPHICS: PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICE. james D. Foley,
because many reactions depend on metal atoms for catalysis. Andries van Dam, Steven K. Feiner and john F. Hughes. Addi
son-Wesley Publishing, 1990.
The promise of molecular computer graphics has barely
MACROMOLECULAR GRAPHICS. A. Olson and D. Goodsell in Current
begun to be realized. The speed and memory capacity of
Opinion in Structural Biology, Vol. 2, pages 193-201; April 1992.
computer hardware are doubling every 18 months, leading to JOURNAL OF MOLECULAR GRAPHICS. Edited by W. G. Richards.
commensurate improvements in the versatility of software. Butterworth-Heinemann Publishers, quarterly.
Virtual-reality simulators that can immerse the researcher in


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THE POWER IS ON

The Big Bang
of Animal Evolution
Almost 600 million years ago animal evolution demonstrated
an unmatched burst of creativity. Has the mechanism of evolution altered
zn ways that prevent fundamental changes in the body plans of animals?
by Jeffrey S. Levinton
What has been is what will be, and what Evolutionary biology's deepest para acters that reflect the oldest and deep
has been done is what will be done; and dox concerns this strange discontinui est levels of evolutionary association.
there is nothing new under the sun. ty. Why haven't new animal body plans All the known animal phyla that read
-Ecclesiastes 1: 9 continued to crawl out of the evolu ily fossilize appeared during the 60-mil
tionary cauldron during the past hun lion-year Cambrian period. We cannot
B
iologists are united in the belief dreds of millions of years? Why are the be sure how early within it the phyla
that the vast array of animals, ancient body plans so stable? arose. Nevertheless, compared with the
plants and other life-forms popu These major body plans are familiar context of the 3.5 billion years of all bi
lating the globe evolved from simple or to even the casual amateur naturalist. ological history and the roughly 570
ganisms that came into existence more In the animal kingdom the simplest million years since the start of the
than three billion years ago. The old multicellular creatures are the radially Cambrian, the phyla do seem to have
est fossils are of simple algae and oth symmetric cnidarians, such as jellyfish appeared suddenly and simultaneous
er single-celled organisms; more com and anemones, which have bodies that ly. For that reason, some paleontolo
plex multicellular animals and plants consist of two layers of tissue. Some gists refer to the Cambrian "explosion."
made their appearance hundreds of what more complicated are flatworms, Even when we consider the taxonom
millions of years later. The increase in which have three primary tissue lay ic level below phyla-classes-it is ap
complexity seems to have been any ers, are bilaterally symmetric and have parent that most of the basic innova
thing but steady. Most of evolution's sensp organs concentrated at one end. tion occurred early. Richard K. Bambach
dramatic leaps occurred rather abrupt The coelomates, which include almost of Virginia Polytechnic Institute and
ly and soon after multicellular organ all other animals, have three body lay State University has shown that after
isms first evolved, nearly 600 million ers and a cavity in the middle layer. the late Cambrian the number of new
years ago during a period called the Within this vast group are the distinct classes arising decreased precipitous
Cambrian. The body plans that evolved body plans of the annelids (segment ly. This evidence seems to confirm that
in the Cambrian by and large served as ed worms), the echinoderms (the sea there was a spectacular evolutionary
the blueprints for those seen today. Few stars, sea cucumbers, starfish and oth radiation in the early Cambrian.
new major body plans have appeared er pentamerally symmetric creatures), Some features of the Cambrian ex
since that time. Just as all automobiles the arthropods (insects, true bugs, spi plosion are still rather uncertain. The
are fundamentally modeled after the ders and crustaceans), the mollusks, assumption that the fossil record tells
first four-wheel vehicles, all the evolu the vertebrates and many less well the truth about when the phyla origi
tionary changes since the Cambrian pe known organisms. nated is a matter of great controversy.
riod have been mere variations on those Such structural differences are the The progenitors of the distinct animal
basic themes. basis for the hierarchical system with groups found in the Cambrian could
which biologists first began to classi conceivably have diverged hundreds of
fy animals and plants. Echinoderms, ar millions of years earlier, yet they might
thropods, annelids and the other groups not have left fossils because they lacked
JEFFREY S. LEVINTON is professor and
each make up one phylum, or major di
chair of the department of ecology and
vision, of the kingdom Aniinalia; a phy
evolution at the State University of New
lum is defined by the distinctive body
York at Stony Brook. He received a bach
plan of its members. Each phylum is in CAMBRIAN EXPLOSION was character
elor's degree from the City College of
ized by the sudden and roughly simulta
New York and a Ph.D. from Yale Univer turn divided successively into classes,
neous appearance of many diverse ani
sity, both in geology. He is a marine ecol orders and smaller groups, down to
mal forms almost 600 million years ago.
ogist and evolutionary biologist, a Gug the level of species.
No other period in the history of animal
genheim Fellow and the author of the In 1859 Charles Darwin explained
books Marine Ecology and Genetics, Pale life can match this remarkable burst of
why this taxonomic hierarchy exists evolutionary creativity. Most of the Cam
ontology and Macroevolution. Levinton
in nature. Evolution, he realized, is a brian creatures shown here were recon
also recently participated in the revision
and reissue of Rachel Carson's classic
branching process, and each division in structed from fossils by Simon Conway
The Sea around Us. the hierarchy represents another branch Morris and Harry Whittington of the Uni
point. Phyla are distinguished by char- versity of Cambridge.



ANNELIDA NEMATODA CNIDARIA
SEGMENTED WORMS ROUNDWORMS PORIFERA
SPONGES JELLYFISH, CORALS,
SEA ANEMONES
UNIQUE BODY PLANS are the hallmark of the animal phyla, the largest taxonomic
groupings. All the organisms within a phylum share certain evolutionary innova
tions; the further division of the animals into smaller taxonomic categories, such as
shells or skeletons. If so, the Cambrian Its remarkably well preserved speci
diversification might not have been as mens were first discovered in 1809 by
explosive as is generally assumed. Charles D. Walcott of the Smithsonian
PLATYHELMINTHES Investigators have found conflicting Institution. Although Walcott thought
FLATWORMS evidence on this point. The only known the strange fossils could be allied with
animallike fossils that predate the Cam living groups, many paleontologists now
brian belong to a peculiar group dis think the Burgess Shale and other Cam
covered in 1947 at the Ediacara Hills brian sediments contain many unique
in southern Australia by R. C. Sprigg, body plans that flourished early in the
a government geologist; they were first Cambrian, only to become extinct later.
described by Martin F. Glaessner of the Stephen Jay Gould of Harvard Univer
University of Adelaide. (Similar fossils sity has popularized this view in his
have since been found elsewhere.) The book Wonderful Life.
Ediacaran fauna seem to be an evolu A good example of such a strange
tionary dead end, however: they cannot Burgess Shale fossil is Wiwaxia, a spiny
ECHINODERMATA easily be related to living organisms or creature about one inch long, described
STARFISH, SEA URCHINS,

SAND DOLLARS even Cambrian fossils. in great detail by the paleontologist Si
mon Conway Morris of the University
tempts to find an answer with of Cambridge. Morris produced a plau
the tools of molecular biology sible reconstruction of Wiwaxia that per
have been inconclusive. Biolo suaded many researchers this creature
gists postulate that the sequences of belonged to a completely novel phylum.
nucleotide bases in DNA and of ami Yet when Nicholas]. Butterfield, then a
no acids in proteins mutate at approx graduate student at Harvard, looked at
imately constant rates; the sequences Wiwaxia in 1990, he suspected it was
can therefore be used as a kind of mo just a relative of a modern scaleworm
lecular clock. After comparing the glo called a sea mouse. After some search
MOLLUSCA
CLAMS, SNAILS, OCTOPI , SQUID bin proteins in living organisms, Bruce ing, he found evidence that Wiwaxia
Runnegar of the University of Califor does indeed belong to the phylum An
nia at Los Angeles estimated that mul nelida: Wiwaxia specimens bear the flat
ticellular animals probably divided into tened chitinous hooks that are charac
lineages that anticipated the major phy teristic of one subclass of living anne
la more than 900 million years ago lid, the polychaetes.
well before the Cambrian. On the other The Wiwaxia story has come full cir
hand, evidence obtained by sequencing cle since Walcott's original and appar
the 18S ribosomal RNA (molecules that ently correct conclusion that Wiwaxia
aid in the synthesis of proteins) from was an annelid. Even the most peculiar
various species suggests that many of of all the Burgess Shale fossils, whimsi
INSECTS, CRUSTACEANS, BARNACLES the phyla appeared almost simulta cally named Hallucigenia, has recent
neously, perhaps during the latter part ly been shown by L. Ramskbld of the
of the pre-Cambrian era. The times of Swedish Museum of Natural History
origin for the phyla and their exact re and Hou Xianguang of the Nanjing In
lations remain obscure. stitute of Geology and Paleontology to
All in all, the facts still point to an be in all probability a velvet worm of
explosion of complex life near the be the phylum Onychophora.
ginning of the Cambrian. The actual ex To take another example, for many
tent of that explosion can be appreciat years the Cambrian echinoderms ap
ed only by looking critically at the fossil peared to be scattered among many
record. The most spectacular assem taxonomic classes, all of which seemed
CHORDATA
FISH, AMPHIBIANS, blage of Cambrian fossils comes from to spring up at once and without ob
REPTILES, BIRDS, MAMMALS the Burgess Shale in British Columbia. vious interrelations. More recent analy-


Foundry Cove has a unique distinction:
it has perhaps the highest concentra
tions of toxic cadmium and nickel pol
lutants in the world.
Lying across the Hudson from Storm
King Mountain and West Point, the
cove has a venerable military history.
During the Revolutionary War, a forge
at the site produced chains that were
ECTOPROCTA ENTOPROCTA ROTIFERA stretched across the Hudson to im
BRYOZOANS BARENTSIA AND OTHERS ROTIFERS pede British warships. During the Civil
War, the foundry made ammunition.
species, reflects variation on these basic physical designs. All the animal phyla that About 40 years ago a military contract
have hard parts arose during the Cambrian. The total number of animal phyla is 26; brought the manufacture of batteries
those pictured here represent only some of the most familiar groups. to the site. Starting in 1953, industrial
plants dumped more than 100 tons of
nickel-cadmium waste into the cove
ses, however, show a standard evolu no evidence that any ftmdamentally new and nearby river. The dumping contin
tionary tree, rather than what appeared body plans and phyla arose to fill the ued until complaints by local citizens
to be an evolutionary lawn consisting vacated niches. halted it in the late 1970s.
of many roots back to unknown com It is also hard to accept that the oc When Klerks and I first studied the
mon ancestors. cupation of all niches would complete cove in the early 1980s, we found that
Those stories point to a serious prob ly preclude evolutionary novelty. To as much as 25 percent of the bottom
lem with all arguments about evolution day many different body plans exploit sediments consisted of cadmium. Nev
that rely on taxonomic classification. the same resources: snails, worms and ertheless, many bottom-dwelling inver
Some of the fossils that suggest the ex members of many other diverse phyla tebrate species were no less abundant
istence of unique classes are very poor all ingest organic particles in mud for there than in the unpolluted muds of
scraps from the geologic table. To estab food. We must seek another explana other sites. To learn why, we examined
lish that a fossil is something truly new, tion for the dearth of biological innova the cadmium tolerance of the most
a paleontologist must argue the differ tions since the Cambrian. common invertebrate in the cove, an
ence from a lack of features shared by One idea worth entertaining is that aquatic relative of the earthworm bear
other groups. To establish that a fossil evolution occurs more slowly today ing the tongue-twisting name Limno
belongs to a known group, one must than it did when the earth was young. drilus hoffmeisteri.
find the diagnostic traits that prove If evolution has slowed for unknown, We found that the Limnodrilus from
the relation. When the fragmentary fos peculiar reasons, then perhaps too lit a nearby cove died or showed clear
sils of an unknown organism are first tle time has elapsed for new body plans signs of distress when placed in Foun
found, they often lack such traits, and to evolve. dry Cove sediments but that local spec
on this basis it is easier for paleontolo Ten years ago Paul Klerks of the Uni imens thrived and reproduced. We
gists to assign them to new groups. (Pa versity of Southwestern Louisiana and raised Foundry Cove worms in clean
leontologists, being human, also consid I decided to test that idea by examining muds and examined their grandchil
er it more fun to find something new.) the metal tolerance of invertebrates in dren; they too were tolerant of cadmi
Because so many of the fossils are frag Foundry Cove on the Hudson River. Uke um, which suggested that genes were
mentary and potentially subject to rein other coves nearby, Foundry Cove teems largely responsible for the tolerance.
terpretation, I believe Gould and some with life: water striders whirl about the The evolution of cadmium resistance
other paleontologists have exaggerated surface, nabbing unwary midge nymphs; could have taken no more than 30
the diversity in the Cambrian. oligochaete worms and insect larvae years. In fact, the genetic variability in
crowd the muddy bottom and provide nearby populations, together with the
N
evertheless, a Cambrian explo food for fish, crabs and prawns. Yet high mortality we measured, indicat-
sion in animal diversity certain
ly did occur. Evolutionary biolo
gists are still trying to determine why
no new body plans have appeared dur
ing the past half a billion years.
James W. Valentine of the Universi
ty of California at Berkeley has suggest
ed that new variants could have ap
peared and evolved more rapidly during
the early history of life because there
was more "open space" in the form of
unfilled ecological niches. I do not be
lieve this can be the whole story. David
M. Raup of the University of Chicago
has estimated that when the biggest of
all mass extinctions occurred at the
end of the Permian period 230 million
years ago, as much as 96 percent of all WIWAXIA (left), a spiny Cambrian fossil, was once believed to represent a phylum
marine species disappeared. Yet, con unknown in the modern world. Recent work has proved that it is actually related
trary to Valentine's hypothesis, there is to the sea mouse Aphrodita (right) of the annelid phylum.


An Evolutionary Lawn versus an Evolutionary Tree
.
J J J
I
HYPOTHETICAL ANCESTOR (S)
iffering views of diversi

D ty within groups of fos
sil organisms can sometimes
?Jr
\1 . .
result from preconceptions
about the evolutionary rela
tions between the known
species. The Cambrian echi
noderms were once believed
to be a highly diverse group
in which many different lin
eages descended rapidly and
separately from a common
ancestor, forming a wide evo
lutionary lawn (above). Fur
ther study, however, revealed
that the same echinoderm
fossils could be organized
into a more traditional evolu
tionary tree of branching de
scent , in which the total di
HYPOTHETICAL ANCESTOR versity is far less (left).
ed that the degree of metal tolerance turn to dominance when the use of a began to reproduce at a later age and
observed could have evolved in just drug is discontinued temporarily. devoted more of their food resources to
two to four generations-or a couple of body growth instead of reproduction.
O
years. To prove the conclusion, we ex ne need not turn to poisons When predators were around, natural
posed worms from an unpolluted site to demonstrate the power of selection favored guppies that repro
to cadmium-laden sediment and bred natural selection. John A. End duced earlier-before a predator could
the survivors. Sure enough, by the third ler of the University of California at attack-and spread their reproductive
generation, the descendants had two Santa Barbara has demonstrated with schedules out over many seasons.
thirds of the cadmium tolerance found guppies how predators can drive rap Body structures can also evolve rap
in the Foundry Cove worms. id evolution. In the predator-free up idly, especially when the formation of
This capacity for rapid evolutionary per reaches of Trinidadian streams, fe new islands or lakes creates fresh eco
change in th face of a novel environ male guppies often choose mates that logical spaces that are ripe for inva
mental challenge was startling. No pop have spectacularly large, colorful tails, sion. Darwin's finches, a group of close
ulation of worms in nature could ever possibly because those features reflect ly related species in the Galapagos Is
have faced conditions like the ones hu good health. Bright, showy colors are lands, probably diverged from a single
mankind created in Foundry Cove. Yet dangerous, however, where predatory ancestral species within the past five
although some species inhabiting near fish abound. Endler tested the effect of million years or less. New species with
by waterways are missing from Foun predators by breeding guppies in tanks different types of beaks evolved to fill
dry Cove, most adapted to the unusual with and without predators. In tanks the ecological vacuum, each specializ
conditions. with many predators, brightly colored ing in a different type of food.
The rapid evolution of tolerance for males became rare within a few years. Peter R. Grant of Princeton Universi
high concentrations of toxins seems to In tanks with no predators, they be ty and his colleagues were recently able
be common. Whenever a new pesticide came common. to observe how rapidly natural selec
is brought into use, a resistant strain of David N. Reznick and Heather A. tion can act on these finches [see "Nat
pest evolves, usually within a few years. Bryga of the University of California at ural Selection and Darwin's Finches,"
The same thing happens to bacteria Riverside, working with Endler, showed by Peter R. Grant; SCIENTIFIC AMERI
when new antibiotics are introduced. that natural selection can rapidly alter CAN, October 1991]. An intense dry
Luckily for humans, antibiotic resistance even an organism's breeding schedule. spell killed all the plants except those
seems to be costly for bacteria to main When the investigators put guppies into with large, drought-resistant seeds. Be
tain, and susceptible strains usually re- a stream lacking predators, the guppies cause the finches are mainly seed eat-


ers, their mortality was high. These cir marked by a deep notch through which The brilliant evolutionist ].B.S. Hal
cumstances favored an increase in the an "ear" of threadlike material anchors dane provided perhaps the clearest
average beak size because birds with the creature to its substrate. As the statement of the problem. He scruti
large beaks could crack open larger scallop matures, its silhouette becomes nized Simpson's study of fossil horses
seeds. As Grant observed, fluctuations more circular and the ear relatively and found that the height of a tooth
between dry and wet conditions caused smaller. During most of the 1 1-million feature increased at the startlingly slow
continuous bouts of evolution, often in year history of the Chesapecten lineage, rate of about 3.6 percent per million
the span of just a few months. the adult form followed the same path years. Haldane concluded that the evo
These studies of living groups testify in its evolution, graduating from a crea lution of the horses' teeth was so slow
to the vigor and pace of evolution to ture that looked like modern juveniles that the influence of natural selection
day. ]. John Sepkoski, Jr., of the Univer to modern adults. Miyazaki speculates appeared to be hardly distinguishable
sity of Chicago has conducted a fossil that the ancient sea in which the Chesa from that of random genetic drift. I have
survey that provides further support. pectens lived became gradually deep named this Haldane's paradox: How can
Sepkoski undertook the titanic job of er, favoring scallops that spent more evolution in living populations be so
summarizing the fossil record and cat time living free rather than anchored fast when evolution in the fossil record
aloguing the diversity of fossil groups to a substrate. For whatever reason, the appears so slow?
over time. His estimate of low taxonom Chesapecten's evolution was surpris
T
ic ranks such as genera probably offers ingly slow. he paradox resolves itself to a
a good indication of the number of spe Comparable evolutionary transforma degree when we recall that pale
cies during various periods. He con tions in living mollusks can be much ontologists calculate most evolu
cludes that there have been periods dur more rapid. Contrast the pace of evolu tionary rates over hundreds of thou
ing which the total number of species tionary changes in the Chesapectens, for sands or millions of years. That time
seems to have been stable and a time at example, with those in the dog whelk, scale can bias the detectable rates of
the end of the Paleozoic era when this Nucella lapillus, and the periwinkle Litto change. Suppose you were to measure
number dropped cataclysmically. Over rina obtusata. These mollusks became the water level along a shoreline on
all, however, the total number of species prey for the European shore crab when January 1 in two successive years. Even
seems to have been increasing steadily it was accidentally introduced into bays if you arrived at low tide in one year
during the past 60 million years. Clear in Maine, probably during the early part and high tide in the next, the measured
ly, animals are not inhibited from as of this century. Within only a few dec rate of change would be low-say, one
suming new basic forms by an inability ades, the dog whelk and the periwin meter per year. On the other hand, if
to speciate. kle evolved thicker, stronger shells that you took a measurement roughly every
were better able to resist crab attacks. six hours, the rate of change would ap
the evidence from living groups The late George Gaylord Simpson of pear much higher-one meter every six
of organisms therefore suggests the American Museum of Natural His hours, or 1,460 meters per year.
that contemporary evolution tory, surely the greatest paleontologist Unless a change is constant in rate
proceeds as fast as ever. Yet if one of the 20th century, found a similarly and uniform in direction, the time scale
looks at the fossil record, the pace of slow rate of evolution when he looked at over which it is measured becomes im
evolutionary change can seem quite as fossil mammals. Modern opossums are portant. Evolutionary rates measured
tOnishingly slow. only slightly different from their 65-mil over geologic stretches of time may ap
If you walk along the beach at Scien lion-year-old Cretaceous ancestors. Af pear unnaturally slow because the long
tists Cliffs on the shores of Chesapeake ter extrapolating the rate of opossum periods include times of no change, as
Bay in Maryland, you will come across transformation, Simpson argued that well as times of rapid change with fre
low prominences of hardened sand the evolution of mammals from a reptil quent reversals.
containing thousands of fossils from ian ancestor "can hardly have taken less Thus, when geologist Peter M. Sadler
creatures that lived in a shallow sea than 600 million years . . . which is cer of the University of California at River
several million years ago. It is about tainly absurd." side measured the deposition rate of
the easiest fossil collecting imaginable
(if you ignore the summer heat and the 4
stinging nettles in the water). (j)
a:
Among the many treasures in the w
f--
cliffs are Miocene scallop shells named W ACTUAL
Chesapecten for the Chesapeake Bay
::;; 3 EVOLUTION
f=
tidewater region. Chesapecten scallops z
w
were the first North American fossils S2.
ever described, in 1 687. The earliest ....J 2
iii
members of the group date back to the CfJ
0
middle of the Miocene epoch, about 14 LL
LL --
million years ago; the Chesapecten scal 0 APPARENT

lops have been extinct for roughly three I EVOLUTION
f--
million years. The chain of ancestors 0
and descendants in the strata is nearly

0
unbroken. Joan Miyazaki of the State 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
University of New York at Stony Brook AGE OF FOSSIL (YEARS)
has traced an evolutionary unfolding in APPARENT RATES OF EVOLUTION are sensitive to the time scales on which they
these fossil beds that is both grand and are measured, which could explain why evolutionary changes seem so slow in the
majestically slow. fossil record. In this hypothetical example, the rate of evolution for a fossil's width
The juveniles of modern scallop spe seems slow (red) because periods in which no change occurs and those in which
cies usually have a triangular shape rapid fluctuations occur are lumped together.


marine sediments at various periods in that group: it was presaged by three
the geologic record, he found that the fold symmetry in their ancestors. Nat
rate of sediment accumulation appeared ural selection slowly sculpted general
to be lower if it was measured over forms for the echinoderm classes from
longer intervals. Paleontologist Philip their shells and soft parts.
D. Gingerich of the University of Mich In short, the evidence currently sug
w
z CHESAPECTEN CHESAPECTEN igan found the same inverse relation gests that the defining characters of a
w
SEPTENARIUS MADISONIUS between time scales and the apparent group gradually congeal into a more im
g
I
rates of evolution. When he looked mutable condition after a long period of
a.
for changes in fossil and living species early evolutionary plasticity. In response
II
w over short intervals, the rates were very to natural selection pressures, develop
high; over longer intervals, the rates mental programs may evolve to restrict
9
appeared lower. the degree of change in successful body
I and many other paleontologists and plans. We can only speculate about what
evolutionary biologists believe that pe genetic mechanisms might permanently
riods of fast and furious evolutionary set development, but more and more
change alternate with reversals and long genes are being shown to have similar
periods of little change. The periods of controls on the early developmental pat
CHESAPECTEN rapid change tend to be lost between terns of distantly related species. The
JEFFERSONIUS the cracks of the paleontologist's time Cambrian may have been a period in
i
scale. For instance, evolutionary biolo which the genetic programs that con
gist Michael Lynch of the University of trol embryonic body plans locked into
Oregon has recently shown that the ap the forms we now recognize.
parently slow evolution of mammals The argument for developmental con
w
z
probably results from natural selection straint has considerable strengths. Many
w
()
for stable intermediate forms of ani biologists have reasoned that because
o mals viewed over millions of years. development is an exquisitely fine-tuned
II
process, it cannot be changed radical
I
W n short, there is no reason to think ly without difficulty: mutants bearing
a.
a.
:::>
that the rate of evolution was ever developmental aberrations are usually
slower or faster than it is now. Yet defective and die quickly. The theory
CHESAPECTEN that conclusion still leaves unanswered can explain both the diversification of
MIDDLESEXENSIS
the paradox posed by the Cambrian ex forms in the Cambrian and the sub
I
plosion and the mysterious persistence sequent failure of new body plans to
of those ancient body plans. I have ar arise after the late Permian extinctions.
gued that at least part of the answer It also explains why the rate of specia
may depend on the evolution of com tion, as measured by Sepkoski, contin
mitment to a developmental program. ues to be high: the changes that cor
Characteristics that might be regard respond to differences between close
ed as essential to the definition of a ly related species are not constrained
group's body plan can sometimes be developmentally.
indistinct or even rather different in Nevertheless, I must admit to some
the ancestors of that group. C.R.C. Paul doubts. Can developmental constraints
CHESAPECTEN
SANTAMARIA of the University of Liverpool and An really account for the stability of body
I
drew B. Smith of the Natural History plans over several hundred million
Museum in London have shown that years? Can it be true that echinoderms
starfish did not just spring from the have remained echinoderms because
Cambrian mists into a final form that their development cannot be disrupted
w
z
was never to be altered again. Rather the by natural selection?
w
()
starfish morphology we know crystal The constraints cannot be absolute,
o lized during the Cambrian over many because developmental rules are some
w
millions of years. Even the fivefold sym times broken. Tree frogs provide a spec
--'
Cl metry of all living echinoderms was tacular example [see "Marsupial Frogs,"
Cl
not rigidly established at the origin of by Eugenia M. del Pino; SCIENTIFIC
CHESAPECTEN AMERICAN, May 1989]. All adult frogs

NEFRENS have about the same shape. A few spe
cies of tree frog, however, have special
CHESAPECTEN FOSSILS show steady pouches into which they lay unusually
trends in evolutionary changes that per
large, yolky eggs. The early embryology
sisted for more than 10 million years.
of these species differs from that of
The shapes of these scallops gradual
other tree frogs to allow the embryo to
ly became more rounded, and the notch
develop astride a large egg on dry land,
marking their point of attachment to
the substrate became less pronounced_ rather than in the water.
These changes parallel similar altera This alteration affects gastrulation,
tions that occur as juvenile scallops ma the most crucial period in develop
ture. In one lineage, these trends even ment, when the future identities of tis
CHESAPECTEN tually stopped, but in the other they con sues are determined. As the embryolo
COCCYMELUS tinued until the scallops became extinct. gist Lewis Wolpert once said, "It is not


birth, marriage, or death, but gastrula
tion which is truly the most important
time in your life." The fact that devel
opment can be altered drastically indi
cates that the early embryo is not al
ways impervious to important develop
mental alterations.
The same message comes from re
cent research on the development of
echinoderms. Gregory Wray of Vander
bilt University and Rudolph A. Raff of
Indiana University have shown that the
embryos of sea urchins are fantastical
ly diverse. The larvae of closely related
species sometimes have radically dif
ferent forms-some are adapted for a
long life of swimming and feeding on
plankton, whereas others are suited for
a short nonfeeding period while they
are dispersed by currents. These eco
logical specializations entail monumen
tal differences in the developmental
patterns of the larvae and even in the
parts of the embryo used to form adult
structures. Yet the adults of these spe GUPPIES can evolve significantly within just a few generations to meet changing en
cies are virtually indistinguishable: they vironmental conditions. When predators are common, natural selection favors gup
all have an ovoid skeleton with spines, pies that are dull and transparent (top). When predators are few, male guppies tend
move on tubular "feet" and scrape to have larger, more brightly colored tails for attracting mates (bottom).
rocks with their jaw.
Such diverSity indicates that, con
trary to the argument for developmen or improvement on their ancient fore that the mammalian jaw underwent
tal constraint, the adult form must have bears. Darwin, from the beginning, crit gradual evolution through intermediate
remained constant because it worked icized conceptions of evolutionary prog forms. Far from arguing against the im
well, not because it was incapable of ress that would place human beings portance of natural selection, as Gould
changing. Although development clear at the apex of a ladder of life. The pro has implied, the fossil record testifies
ly guides the hand of morphological gressive trends seen within a group do to its pervasive influence.
evolution, natural selection may be the not imply the resulting organisms' su Are the phylum-level body plans, so
major influence maintaining the sets of periority to anything other than their ancient and so durable, truly the opti
features that characterize the phyla. own antecedents. Yet many evolution mal solutions to the problems of sur
ary lineages do show recognizable re vival and reproduction, reached through
T
he Cambrian explosion thus re sponses to the appearance of predation, an early, fast bout of natural selection
mains a mystery. The survival of variations in climate and water depth as before development congealed? Or are
the body plans that arose during well as other changes. they just random combinations of char
that period seems likely to tell us some I argue that these evolutionary trends acters assembled by accidents of histo
thing important about the patterns of represent classical Darwinian progres ry? I think the best to be said for now
evolution. Working from the assump sive improvements in response to an is that there is some truth in both alter
tion that Cambrian life was extraordi environmental challenge. The incremen natives. Evolution at the species level
narily diverse, Gould has suggested that tal evolution of mammals from mam continues unabated, but variation in the
chance-not natural selection-played mallike reptiles, for example, took more surviving body plans does not seem to
the larger role in determining which evo than 100 million years to complete and occur. For whatever unknown reasons,
lutionary lineages survived and which shows progress toward better func there will probably never again be an ex
became extinct. Yet the Cambrian fau tioning in a terrestrial environment. plosion of animal diversity on the earth
na may have been less diverse than he The evolution of a secondary palate in like the one that took place sometime
and others have assumed. Derek E. G. creased the efficiency of mastication. around the early Cambrian.
Briggs and Matthew A. Wills of the Uni The teeth changed from simple rep
versity of Bristol, working with Richard tilian cones that were repeatedly re
A. Fortey of the Natural History Muse placed during a lifetime to more com FURTHER READING
um in London, have found signs to that plex shapes that were replaced only GENETICS, PALEONTOLOGY, AND MACRO
effect: for example, they have demon once. Even the jaw joint changed from EVOLUTION. ]. S. Levinton. Cambridge
strated that modern arthropods seem one fulcrum to another; in some transi University Press, 1988.
no less diverse in body form than do the tional fossils the reptilian jaw joint co THE EMERGENCE OF ANIMALS: THE CAM
arthropods of the Cambrian. exists with the mammalian jaw joint. BRIAN BREAKTHROUGH. M.A.S. McMena
min and D. L. S. McMenamin. Columbia
Moreover, as important as the evolu If one compared modern reptiles and
University Press, 1990.
tion of the body plans was, the trans mammals, it would seem impossible for
METAZOAN PHYLOGENY AND THE CAM
formation of them since the Cambrian the articulation of the jaw to change BRIAN RADIATION. D. H. Erwin in Trends
has been extensive. One cannot light from one set of bones to another with in Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 6, No 4,.
ly dismiss the possibility that modern out a monstrous, drastic (and highly un pages 131-134; April 1991.
animals do represent progress beyond likely) mutation, but the fossils prove


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Linguistic Origins
of Native Americans
Scholars have long wondered how Native Americans settled
the New World. Recent research indicates that their many tongues belong
to just three families, implying three waves of immigration {rom Asia
by Joseph H. Greenberg and Merritt Ruhlen
'ttle over two centuries ago Sir

William Jones, an English jurist
World languages. In 1789, only three
years after Jones's celebrated discourse,
and Sapir insisted that the similarities
stemmed from a common heritage, and
serving in India, was struck by Thomas Jefferson wrote: "I endeavor were thus genetic in nature, Boas and
remarkable similarities among Sanskrit, to collect all the vocabularies I can, of his followers attributed the similarities
Classical Greek and Latin. He proposed American Indians, as of those of Asia, to the diffusion of words from one lan
that these languages, and probably Goth persuaded, that if they ever had a com guage family to another.
ic and Celtic as well, had "sprung from mon parentage, it will appear in their Our research confirms the genetic
some common source, which, perhaps, languages." approach. By comparing the most con
no longer exists." This source became Yet although 19th-century scholars servative elements in the vocabularies
known, in the following century, as Pro identified hundreds of American lan of hundreds of languages of North and
to-Indo-European-a protolanguage that guages and grouped them into fami South America, one of us (Greenberg)
linguists have since labored to recon lies, none of them ventured the more found just three families. Because each
struct [see "The Origins of Indo-Europe comprehensive taxonomy that Jeffer family shows closer affiliation with
an Languages," by Colin Renfrew; SCI son had envisaged. The traditional ac Asian families than with the other two
ENTIFIC AMERICAN, October 1989, and count instead multiplied families, until American groupings, the tripartite divi
"The Early History of Indo-European the number reached about 60 in North sion implies there were at least three
Languages," by Thomas V. Gamkrelidze America and about 100 in South Amer distinct migrations from Asia. This hy
and V. V. Ivanov; SCIENTITIC AMERICAN, ica, far greater than the number in the pothesis finds confirmation in the re
March 1990]. Old World, where, for example, Africa search of physical anthropologists.
Jones, however, did not reconstruct has but four. The traditionalists who oppose our
a syllable. He reached his conclusions These estimates are puzzling be classification do not offer a better one.
by observing, as he put it, "a stronger cause taxonomic diverSity normally in Instead they assert that by comparing
affinity, both in the roots of verbs, and creases with time. Yet most archaeol languages two at a time and in great
in the forms of grammar, than could ogists have long agreed that human depth they will arrive at the true sys
possibly have been produced by acci settlement in the Old World substan tem-in another 50 to 100 years. We
dent" [see bottom illustration on page tially predates that in the New. The cur believe such work is misguided. To sys
96]. This evolutionary hypothesis was rent consensus is that modem humans tematize a jumble of languages-or
not lost on scholars interested in New emerged at least 100,000 years ago, rocks, or animals-one must compare
probably in Africa, and did not reach them as a group. Moreover, the multi
the Americas until about 12,000 to 20,- lateral approach has worked before.
000 years ago. How could the Ameri When Greenberg used it to classify the
JOSEPH H. GREENBERG and MERRlTI
can languages have diversified to such African languages some 40 years ago,
RUHLEN collaborate in the comparative
study of languages. Greenberg is profes a great extent? traditionalists in that field opposed the
sor emeritus of anthropology and lin The difficulty called for a more com method. Today everyone-even the tra
guistics at Stanford University. His chief prehensive classification. But in the ear ditionalists-embraces its results.
interests are the universal features of ly years of this century, when Alfred
language and the historical classification
T
L. Kroeber and Edward Sapir first at hose who compare languages
of language. He is past president of the
tempted to reduce the many American two by two are simply ignoring
Linguistic Society of America and has
languages to a handful of larger fami much relevant evidence. Scholars
been elected a member of the Ameri
can Philosophical SOCiety, the American lies, they met with vigorous opposition related Albanian to English not by mak
Academy of Arts and Sciences and the from such anthropologists as Franz ing a systematic comparison of the two
National Academy of Sciences. Ruhlen Boas, Pliny Goddard and Truman Mi languages in isolation but by establish
is an independent researcher based in chelson. These opponents did not seri ing that each belonged to the Indo-Eu
Palo Alto, Calif. He earned a doctorate in ously doubt that there were similarities ropean family. Indeed, Indo-European
linguistics from Stanford in 1973 and among the American language groups. ists have never used a binary approach.
worked on the Language Universals Proj
What they disputed-and what many Our system of multilateral analysis
ect. He is author of A Guide to the World's
dispute even today-was the origin uncovers precisely those relations that
Languages.
of these similarities. Whereas Kroeber tend to escape notice in the binary ap-
94 SCIENTITIC AMERICAN November 1992


GREENBERG'S ClASSIFICATION places America's many languages into
just three families. Eskimo-Aleut (purple) and NaDene (orange) belong
to the Old World groups known as Eurasiatic and Dene-Caucasian, re
spectively (inset). Amerind (yellow) is related to Eurasiatic. Amerind
was the first family to enter the New World, Eskimo-Aleut, the last.
proach. We compare hundreds of lan zwei, drei, ich, mein, Vater, Wasser."
guages at a time-a search in breadth A comparison of the basic vocabu
rather than an analysis in depth-by laries of hundreds of languages from
examining a list of several hundred North and South America led Green
words. This list contains words that de berg to group the many postulated
note universal concepts, such as person families into just three: Eskimo-Aleut,
al pronouns, body parts and aspects of Na-Dene and Amerind. The first two
nature (water and fire, for example). Be Eskimo-Aleut in the Arctic and Na
cause such concepts are rarely bor Dene in Canada and the southwestern
rowed, languages seldom have occasion U.S.-had long been accepted, and so
to borrow their names. English pro the innovation consisted in grouping
vides an illustration of this rule. Al all the other American languages under
though it has borrowed many words Amerind. It contains 11 subfamilies,
from many languages, most of its ba distributed throughout much of North
sic vocabulary derives from Proto-Ger America and all of South America [see
manic. English has "one, two, three, I, illustration on this page].
mine, father, water"; German has "ein, In support of Amerind, Greenberg


Defining a Family LANGUAGE FAMILY LANGUAGE FORM MEANING
AMERIND PROTO-AMERIND T'A'NA
by a Single Linguistic "CHILD, SIBLlN(
Almosan Nootka t'an'a "child"

Innovation: T'ANA
Keresiouan Yuchi tane "brother"
E
vidence in its daughter languag-
Penutian Totonac t'8na-t "grandchild"
es implies that Proto-Amerind
had a root that sounded like T'ANA, Hokan Coahuilteco t'an-pam "child"
meant "child" and assumed three vo-
Central Amerind Proto-Uto-Aztecan "tana "daughter, son"
calizations that indicated gender. Be-
cause the etymology runs through Chibchan Miskito tuk-tan "child, boy"
all of Amerind's 11 branches but Paezan Warrau dani- "mother's sister"
is not found in any other group, it
Andean Aymara tayna "firstborn child"
ties the family together and dis-
tinguishes it from others. Branch- Macro-Tucanoan Masaca tani-mai "younger sister"
es appear in the first column. AI-
Equatorial Urubu-Kaapor ta'In "child"
mosan-Keresiouan and Chibchan-
Paezan are divided, and each thus Macro-Carib Pavishana tane "my son"
occupies two rows. All daughter lan- Macro-Panoan Lengua tawin "grandchild"
guages are modern save Proto-Uto-
Macro-Ge Tibagi tog-tan "girl"
Aztecan, which is reconstructed.
proposed about 300 etymologies, or ly compares the vocabulary of Amerind reason is that Proto-Amerind, the origi
groups of words that he believes have languages from North and South Amer nal language from which all modern
all evolved from a single ancestral word. ica can fail to be impressed by the very Amerind languages derive, had three
The members of each such group are high frequency of such terms. forms, or grades, of the root in ques
called cognates. Recent work by one of How should we explain this broad dis tion, in which the first vowel was corre
us (Ruhlen) has raised the number of tribution? One possibility might be that lated with sex as follows: T'ANA "child,
etymologies to about 500. such terms appear around the world, Sibling," T'INA "son, brother, boy" and
Some of these roots are distributed as do words resembling "mama" and T'UNA "daughter, sister, girl." ( The
so broadly that it is difficult to under "papa." Unfortunately for this hypothe apostrophe represents a glottal stop
stand how they were overlooked for sis, forms such as TANA and TIJNA, after the "T"-a sound heard in the
so long. The main reason, no doubt, is with the meaning "son" or "daughter," Cockney pronunciation of "bottle.")
that specialists in American languages are as rare outside Amerind as they are As might be expected, in the 12,000 or
have each tended to focus on one lan abundant within it. This root not only more years since Amerind began to di
guage family. Thus, even if there were ties Amerind together but also distin vide into subfamilies, the correlation be
similar words running through family guishes Amerind from other language tween the initial vowel and the original
after family, nobody would notice them. families. It is, as linguists say, an exclu gender has often been lost. As a result,
A good example is furnished by an sive innovation of the Amerind family. many forms that are clearly cognates of
Amerind root whose sounds were Recent research by Ruhlen appears the others now show the "wrong" vow
roughly TANA, TINA or TIJNA and to explain why the first vowel of the el. One example of this kind is Proto-Al
whose meaning fell somewhere in the root varies and why the root finds wide gonquian *tana "daughter," where the
range of "child, son, daughter" (the cap spread use in words denoting both the first vowel is *a rather than *u. (The as
ital letters signify that the sounds are sexes (son/ brother and daughter/sister) terisk Signifies that the form has been
approximations). No one who careful- and the neutral form (child/sibling). The reconstructed on the basis of the mod
ern daughter languages.) Most likely
this discrepancy is the result either of
CLASSICAL OLD
the first vowel assimilating the timbre
SANSKRIT GREEK LATIN IRISH GOTHIC
of the second vowel or of the a-form of
I carry bhar-ami pher-a fer-a bir-u barr-a the root being extended, by analogy,
throughout the language at the ex
thou carriest bhar-asi pher-eis fer-s bir-i barr-is pense of the i- and u-forms. Such ana
logical extension is common in linguis
he carries bhar-ati pher-ei fer-t ber-id barr-ith tic history. In English, for instance, the
oed form of the past tense of regular
verbs (as in "kick/ kicked") is extended
we carry bhar-amas pher-omen fer-imus ber-mi barr-am
by some speakers to the past tense of
irregular verbs (as in "see/see'd").
you carry bhar-atha pher-ete fer-tis ber-the barr-ith
It is noteworthy that the vowels i and
u proposed for these masculine and
they carry bhar-anti pher-ousi fer-unt ber-it barr-and feminine kinship terms coincide with
the gender system in two major Amer
VERBAL VESTIGES of a common ancestor led William Jones, an 18th-century En ind subgroups of South America and
glish jurist, to place these five ancient languages in one family, now called Indo-Eu also in the Chinook language of Oregon.
ropean. English is most closely related to Gothic. These agreements are too numerous to


ANGUAGE FORM MEANING LANGUAGE FORM MEANING
'ROTO-AMERIND T'I'NA "SON, BROTHER, BOY" PROTO-AMERIND T'U'NA "DAUGHTER, SISTER, GIRL"
(urok tSin "young man" Coeur d'Alene tune "niece"
iI10hawk -'tsin "male, boy" Yuchi tS'one "daughter, son"
iI10lale pne-t'in "my elder brother" Central Sierra Miwok tUne- "daughter"
(ana t'inT-si "child, son, daughter" Salinan a-t'on "younger sister"
uicatec 'dffno "brother" Taos -t'ut'ina "older sister"
hanguena sin "brother" Lenca tuntu-rusko "younger sister"
iI1i1lcayac tzhreng "son" Cayapa tSuh-ki "sister"
rehuelche den "brother" Tehuelche thaun "sister"
riquie ten "son" Tiquie ton "daughter"
iI1ocochi tin-gwa "son, boy" Morotoko a-tune-sas "girl"
(agua dEmu "male child" Nonuya -tona "sister"
racana u-tse-kwa "grandchild" Tacana -tona "younger sister"
3uato china "older brother" Piokobye a-ton-ka ''younger sister"
be accidental and too widespread to re junction with various roots to which it sian, Sino-Tibetan and Yeniseian (a fam
flect linguistic borrowing. Indeed, many attaches-has been reconstructed for ily of central Siberia that has only a sin
of them fall on either side of clear geo Proto-Siouan as *-thii.-ki "man's sister" gle surviving language). Nikolaev then
graphic discontinuities. and is seen in such modern languages showed that Na-Dene was unmistakably
Just as Jones was impressed by the as Pawnee t'i-'i "boy, son," Southern related to Caucasian (which he and Star
conjunction of roots and affixes, so too Pomo t'i-ki "younger Sibling," Mazahua ostin had together reconstructed) and
do we find in Amerind an equally im t'i-'i " boy," Amaguaje -tsen-ke "son" and hence by extension to Sino-Tibetan and
pressive conjunction of the root in ques Aponegicran -thon-ghi "sister." Yeniseian as well.
tion and various grammatical affixes. In a more comprehensive compari
T
Those that may modify the root T'ANA he threefold classification of lan son of all relevant families, Bengtson
include the pronomial prefixes na- "my" guages implies that no more than added Basque (an isolated language of
and ma- "your," both of which appear three Asian migrations left lin northern Spain) and Burushaski (an iso
in all 11 Amerind subgroups. The for guistic traces. Fewer migrations are lated language of northern Pakistan) to
mer appears in forms such as Proto-Al possible if they gave rise to communi this family, which has come to be called
gonquian *ne-tima "my daughter," Kio ties that split on the eastern side of the Dene-Caucasian. Na-Dene proves to be
wa no-ton "my brother," Paez ne-tson Bering Strait. To decide on the precise the easternmost extension of Dene-Cau
"my brother-in-law" and Manao no-tany number, one must compare the lan casiano Because that family is distinct
"my son." Such pronomial affixes are guage families of America and Asia. from Eurasiatic, Na-Dene could not have
among the most stable elements in lan Recent work by Russian and Ameri split from Eskimo-Aleut in the West
guage: they are almost never borrowed. can linguists indicates that there prob ern Hemisphere. It must have reached
That entire systems of them could have ably were exactly three migrations. Es the Americas by means of a separate
been systematically transmitted from kimo-Aleut is the easternmost member migration.
one language to the next, from British of a vast family that we call Eurasiatic Over the past few years, we have com
Columbia to Tierra del Fuego, defies and that Russian scholars call Nostrat pared Amerind with the world's other
the imagination. ic. ( The two classifications differ slight language families and found that it is
Amerind suffixes include diminutive ly. Eurasiatic includes Indo-European, most closely related to Eurasiatic. The
forms that one naturally associates Uralic-Yukaghir, Turkic, Mongolian, Tun taxonomic relation is quite distant:
with words denoting children. The Pro gus, Korean, Japanese, Ainu, Gilyak, whereas Eskimo-Aleut is a member of
to-Amerind diminutive "-i'sa is found Chukchi-Kamchatkan and Eskimo-Aleut. the Eurasiatic family, Amerind is relat
in Proto-Algonquian *ne-tim-ehsa "my Nostratic is broader, including also the ed to Eurasiatic as a whole. That is, its
daughter," Mixtec ta'nu i'sa "younger Dravidian family of southern India, the genetic connection reaches much fur
Sister," Esmeralda tini-usa "daughter," Kartvelian family of the Caucasus and ther back in time.
and Suhin tino-ice "young woman." The the Afro-Asiatic family of North Africa The first migration, known on ar
Proto-Amerind diminutive *-mai is seen and the Middle East.) chaeological grounds to have occurred
in Luiseiio tu'-mai "woman's daughter's Na-Dene's relatives in Asia were re some time before 12,000 B.P., gave rise
child," Masaca tani-mai "younger sister" cently identified by Sergei Starostin of to the Amerind family, which occupied
and Chapacura tana-muy "daughter." the Institute of Oriental Studies, Ser most of the New World at the time of
Proto-Amerind deployed an intricate gei Nikolaev of the Institute of Slavic Columbus's arrival in 1492. The second
system of suffixes. One such suffix, Studies in Moscow and John Bengtson, migration, somewhat later, gave rise to
*-ki, indicated a reciprocal relation, such an independent linguist in Minneapo the Na-Dene family. Finally, perhaps
as that which makes a single word mean lis. Starostin began by connecting three 4,000 to 5,000 years ago, the final mi
either a man's sister's son or a boy's Old World families that had hitherto gration took place, bringing the ances
mother's brother. This suffix-in con- been considered independent: Cauca- tors of the Eskimo and Aleut first to


southwestern Alaska and later across ma/yaqe "throat," whereas Akwa'ala, in match. Next, limit both languages to
the northern perimeter of North Ameri Baja California, has milqi "neck." In Pan only the following consonants: p, t, t',
ca to Greenland. ama, Cuna has murki "swallow," where k, k', q, q', s, m, n, I, r, y, w. Accept only
the original 1 has apparently changed m for the first consonant, / or r for the
ingle etymology can illustrate to r, a very common replacement. In second position and k, k', q, q' for the
both the unity of Amerind and the Andean subfamily the Quechua lan third consonant.
its ties to the Eurasiatic/Nos guage has ma/q'a "throat"; in the Equa Under these assumptions, the chanc
tratic constellation. The Proto-Amer torial subfamily, the Guamo language es of an accidental match are (1/13)
ind root MALIQ'A, meaning "swallow, has mirko "drink." (2/13)(4/13) 0.0036413291. If we then
=
throat," has left its mark in no fewer What is the probability that these sim round this off to 0.004 and calcu
than eight of the 11 Amerind subfami ilar forms arose independently? One late the probability for a random simi
lies from Canada to the tip of South can make a rough estimate by holding larity among six families, we obtain
America [see illustration be/owl. In Ca the meaning within the narrow seman (0.004)5 0.0000000001024, or about
=
nada's Salish subfamily we find Halko tic range "swallow-throat" and making one chance in 10 billion. These rough
melem m (}/qw "throat." Down the coast a number of phonological assumptions. calculations assume an equal probabili
in Oregon we find in Tfaltik, an extinct Let us begin by assessing the probability ty of all consonant types. Because this
language of the Penutian subfamily, that the Halkomelem and Tfaltik forms assumption does not hold, the figure
milq, which means "swallow." In Yuman, resemble each other by accident. Disre will actually be somewhat larger, yet it
a subdivision of the Hokan subfamily, gard the vowels as less stable than con will still be of the same infinitesimal or
this root has become the general word sonants and calculate the chances that der of magnitude. So much for acciden
for "throat." In Arizona we find Mohave the three consonants will accidentally tal resemblances.
LANGUAGE FAMILY LANGUAGE FORM MEANING
AFRO-ASIATIC Proto-Alro-Asiatic *mlg "to suck, breast, udder"
Arabic mlj "to suck the breast"
Old Egyptian mndY "woman's breast, udder"
INDO-EUROPEAN Proto-Indo-European *melg- "to milk"
English milk "to milk, milk"
Latin mUlg-ere "to milk"
URALIC Proto-Finno-Ugric *miilke "breast"
Saami mielga "breast"
Hungarian mell "breast"
DRAVIDIAN Tamil melku "to chew"
Malayalam melluka "to chew"
Kurux melkha "throat"
ESKIMO-ALEUT Central Yupik melug- "to suck"
AMERIND Proto-Amerind *maliq'a "to swallow, throat"
Almosan Halkomelem malqw "throat"
Kwakwala m'IXw-'id to chew lood lor the baby"
Kutenai u'mqolh "to swallow"
Penutian Chinook mlqw-tan "cheek"
Takelma miilk' "to swallow"
Tlaltik milq "to swallow"
Mixe amu'ul "to suck"
Hokan Mohave maiYaqe "throat"
Walapei malqi' "throat, neck"
Akwa'ala milqi "neck"
Chibchan Cuna murki- "to swallow"
Andean Quechua malq'a "throat"
Aymara maiYq'a "to swallow, throat"
Macro-Tucanoan Iranshe moke'i "neck"
Equatorial Guamo mirko "to drink"
Macro-Carib Surinam e'mok"i "to swallow"
Faai mekeli "nape 01 the neck"
Kaliana imukulali "throat"
OLD WORLD TIES appear in the etymology of the extremely and in more than one language from each of the listed Old
ancient root MAllQ'A, whose meaning was close to "swal World families. The chances that such resemblances could
low" or "throat." Cognates appear in eight Amerind branches have occurred by accident are vanishingly small.


AMERICAN LANGUAGES AND PEOPLES form two correlated (left). Among the NaDene speakers are the Apaches, who
family trees, the one based on etymologies, the other on genes. were led in the 19th century by Geronimo (center). Eskimo
Amerind speakers include the Maya, who carved the glyph for Aleut speakers, including these Inuit from Canada's North
ts'apah, meaning "was set upright," more than 1,000 years ago west Territory (right), range from Siberia to Greenland.
Let us turn now to the question of came from an unexpected quarter in gence also give rise to genetic diver
whether this root can be found in the 1988, a little more than a year after gence. When a group of people depart
Old World. As we saw earlier in the case it was first announced. A team of ge from their homeland and move, say, to
of T'ANA "child," there is no guarantee neticists led by L. L. Cavalli-Sforza of some distant island, they take with them
that elements widespread in Amerind the Stanford University School of Med both their language and their genes.
will be found outside that family. In icine discovered that Native Americans From this time on, their language and
this case, however, cognate forms of fell neatly into three distinct groups their gene pool will diverge from those
this root are scattered through the Old whose boundaries essentially coincid of the group left behind. It is for this
World. The original Russian Nostrati ed with those of their respective lan reason that the classifications corre
cists, the late Vladislav Illich-Svitych guage families [see "Genes, Peoples and spond so nicely.
and Aaron B. Dolgopolsky (now at the Languages," by L. L. Cavalli-Sforza; SCI The evidence of comparative linguis
University of Haifa), have reconstruct ENTIFIC AMERICAN, November 1991]. tics indicates that the Americas were
ed a Nostratic root *miilgi "to suck the This independent corroboration virtu originally settled by three major migra
breast, to nurse." This root connects ally confirms the validity of the Amer tions from Asia. There are, of course,
Proto-Afro-Asiatic *mlg "to suck the ind family because the probability that many unresolved problems, such as
breast" (as in the Arabic mlj), Proto the biological and linguistic classifica how the Amerind family initially broke
Indo-European *melg- "to milk ," as well tions would coincide fortuitously is very up in its spread through North and
as the noun " milk" and Proto-Finno-Ug small indeed. South America. But the recent discov
ric *miilke "breast" (as in Saami miel eries at least, in part, fulfill Jefferson's
gil).
Y
We have found cognate forms in et a third line of evidence sup hope that one day the languages of Na
Eskimo-Aleut such as Central Yupik porting a tripartite classification tive Americans would illuminate their
melug- "to suck." Finally, the Dravidian of Native Americans has been de relations to one another and reveal the
family displays apparent cognates in veloped by Christy G. Turner II of Ari Asian origins of the first Americans.
forms such as Kurux melkha- "throat" zona State University. A specialist in hu
and Tamil melku "to chew." man dentition, Turner found that on the
The range in meaning displayed by basis of their teeth, New World popula FURTHER READING
these families suggests that the ulti tions fall into the same three groups 1HE SETTLEMENT OF THE AMERICAS: A
mate ancestor of this root meant "to [see "Teeth and Prehistory in Asia," by COMPARISON OF LINGUISTIC, DENTAL,
nurse, to suck the breast," a meaning Christy G. Turner II; SCIENTIFIC AMERI AND GENETIC EVIDENCE. Joseph H.
preserved in Afro-Asiatic. In Indo-Euro CAN, February 1989]. Finally, in 1990 Greenberg, Christy G. Turner II and
pean there was a slight semantic shift Douglas C. Wallace of the Emory Uni Stephen L. Zegura in Current Anthro
pology, Vol. 27, pages 477-497; 1986.
from the notion of nursing to that of versity School of Medicine reported pre
LANGUAGE IN THE AMERICAS. Joseph H.
milking, whereas Uralic shows a differ liminary results of the analysis of mito
Greenberg. Stanford University Press,
ent shift: to the noun "breast." In Dra chondrial DNA in Native American pop 1987.
vidian the meaning has shifted to ulations, and this analysis also appears 1HE AMERICAN INDIAN LANGUAGE CON
"chew," a natural semantic connection to support the Amerind hypothesis. TROVERSY. Joseph H. Greenberg in Re
for anyone who has ever watched a We must hasten to add that the close view of Archaeology, Vol. 11, No. 2,
baby nursing, and "throat." In Eskimo correspondence of biological and lin pages 5-14; FaIl 1990.
A GUID E TO THE WORLD'S LANGUAGES,
the meaning has become "to suck" in guistic classifications does not mean
Vol. 1: ClASSIFICATION. Merritt Ruhlen.
general, without specific reference to that genes determine the language one
Stanford University Press, 1991.
the female breast. Finally, in Amerind speaks. That depends solely on the com EVOLUTION OF HUMAN LANGUAGES. Edit
this root became the general word for munity in which one is raised. The clas ed by John Hawkins and Murray Gell
"to swallow" and "throat." sifications correspond because the same Mann. Addison-Wesley, 1992.
Support for the Amerind hypothesis processes that lead to linguistic diver-


Astronomy in the Age
of Columbus
Aided by his wildly erroneous conception of the earth Js
circumference, Columbus redrew the globe,
perhaps encouraging others to realign the heavens
by Owen Gingerich
T
Wo events of astronomical inter and back-may well have had a genu cise for Renaissance artists-but also
est took place in 1492. One was inely significant impact on astronomi by the curious fishlike object hovering
the explosion of a brilliant fire cal thought. Even though Columbus was above the floor. Closer inspection, from
ball over central Europe, which dropped wrong in his belief that he could sail a vantage point that foreshortens the
its stony meteorite near the Alsatian westward to China and Japan, his pio image, reveals it to be an elongated
town of Ensisheim. The other was Co neering venture and the voyages that fol anamorphic depiction of a human skull,
lumbus's discovery of the New World. lowed vividly demonstrated that ancient perhaps a pun on the name of the art
The impressionable young Albrecht knowledge-particularly geographic in ist (Holbein, "hollow bone").
DUrer witnessed the fireball while en formation-was woefully incomplete. The skull, a symbol of mortality,
route to Italy and painted the magnifi The geographic revolution of the New brings in yet another level of Renais
cent phenomenon on a small wood pan World paved the way for unorthodox as sance metaphor, reminding us that any
el. He used the other side for an oil of tronomical ideas, including the possibil quest for earthly knowledge is transito
St. Jerome, however, and his painting of ity of a radical, sun-centered cosmology. ry and ephemeral. The theme is rein
!he meteoritic explosion stayed hidden forced by the broken lute string, also a
W
from sight for several centuries. It came hat was the state of astronomi traditional symbol of death and decay.
to light again about two decades ago, cal knowledge when Columbus In contrast to the highly visible studies
when the St. Jerome painting was lent to made his voyage? A good start of the quadrivium stand the eternal
the Fitzwilliam Museum in Cambridge, ing point for the answer is Hans Hol mysteries, symbolized by the crucifix
England. Meanwhile the Ensisheim me bein's The Ambassadors, painted in half-concealed behind the curtain at the
teorite, which was kept in the parish 1533, one of the great treasures of the upper left corner of the painting. The
church and later in the H8tel de Ville at National Gallery in London. Between scholarly pursuits may be focused and
Ensisheim, remained practically un the ambassador from the French court central, but the larger truths lie hidden
known. Not until the past few decades and his scholarly friend, the bishop of beyond mortal powers.
has the Ensisheim stone-the oldest pre Lavaur, stands a table filled with books The era of The Ambassadors was still
cisely dated meteorite in Europe-cap and instruments. At first glance these a time when some long-gone golden
tured the attention of meteoriticists. artifacts distribute nicely between the age was thought to hold the keys to the
Curiously enough, what seems like heavens, the earth and the sea, repre universe, and newness was not yet a
the nonastronomical event of 1492- sented, respectively, by the celestial di virtue. Nevertheless, astronomy took
Columbus's voyage across the Atlantic als and globe on top, the earthly books an honored place in the curriculum, for
and lute on the shelf, and a very fishy it described the physical arena in which
form near the floor. the human drama took place.
OWEN GINGERICH is a senior astron More fundamentally, the objects con The earth-a composite sphere of
omer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center stitute an allegory of the four topics earth, water, air and fire-was solidly
for Astrophysics in Cambridge and chair of the advanced university curriculum: fixed in the middle of the cosmos.
man of the history of science depart astronomy, arithmetic, music and ge Around it were the spheres of the seven
ment at Harvard University. This is his ometry. The instruments represent as planets (counting both the moon and
fifth article for Scientific American. For
tronomy, and Peter Apian's Eyn newe sun) and an eighth sphere containing
many years Gingerich crisscrossed Eu
unnd wolgegrii.ndte underweysung al the fixed stars-fixed with respect to
rope and America searching for copies
of Copernicus's De revolutionibus; he has ler Kauffmanss Rechnung of 1527, ly one another but actually spinning at a
inspected more than 500 16th-century ing open on the shelf, portrays arith dizzying rate, once every 24 hours. And
copies looking for early annotations. Two metic. The lute and a songbook open to beyond that were God the Father with
anthologies of his articles are just being the Lutheran Kom Heiliger Geyst signi his angels and the elect in a state of
published: The Great Copernicus Chase fy music. Geometry is exemplified not eternal bliss. A woodcut in the Nurem
and Other Adventures in Astronomical only by the challenging perspectives of berg Chronicle, that great coffee-table
History (Sky Publishing and Cambridge
the mosaic floor (an Italian mosaic in book of 1493, sets forth the classical
University Press) and The Eye of Heaven:
the shrine of Edward the Confessor in cosmology in all its glory.
Ptolemy, Copernicus, Kepler (American
Institute of Physics). Westminster Abbey, unique in England) The Nuremberg Chronicle was de
and the lute-a favorite drawing exer- signed before Europe had heard about


HOLBEIN PAINTING, The Ambassadors, contains representa tronomy, geometry and music. Among the astronomical in
tions of the university curriculum as of 1533: arithmetic, as- struments is a globe depicting parts of the New World.
Columbus, and a single look at it de Yet every Columbus Day the story is bill even though no one knew much
bunks one of the most widely dissemi vividly retold of how Columbus had to about him until novelist Washington
nated myths about the Italian naviga persuade Isabella and Ferdinand that Irving visited Spain, found a rich lode of
tor's voyage. Since the ancient Greeks, the world was round. Had Christendom source materials and produced a widely
people had known the earth as a sphere. forgotten the round earth? In truth, it read biography. Unfortunately, Irving
Aristotle had taught that the earth had is early 19th-century Americans who mixed fiction with fact, and one of his
to be a globe because if bits of heavy were forgetful, and the doctrine they most graphic scenes, set in Salamanca,
terrestrial material were dropped into were trying to forget was the standard was wildly imaginative.
the center of the universe, they would British view that one of theirs, Sebastian There Columbus faced a panel of cler
naturally pile up in the form of a sphere. Cabot, was the first to make landfall in ics, "an imposing array of professors,
Almost as an afterthought he added North America-Columbus had merely friars and dignitaries of the church"
that the shape of the shadow of the found some small islands in the Indies. who "came prepossessed against him ,
earth on the moon at the time of a lunar In the aftermath of the Revolution, as men in place and dignity are apt to
eclipse demonstrated the correctness of Americans desperately needed some be against poor applicants." They ridi
his archetypal idea. non-British heroes. Columbus filled the culed the idea of the roundness of the


earth and quoted Scripture to infer its higher in the heavens as they traveled the earth had been deduced with fair ac
flatness. Columbus, a profoundly reli north. As for the east-west direction, curacy by Eratosthenes in ancient Alex
gious man, found himself in danger of Sacrobosco gave a different, more sub andria; his round number of 252,000
being convicted not only of error but tle argument: an eclipse of the moon stadia converts to a circumference of
also of heresy. would take place at a particular, unique just under 40,000 kilometers, provided
In reality, knowledge of the earth's moment, regardless of where an observ that a stade equals 157.5 meters, as the
round shape was always part of the er was located, but from different longi distinguished historian of astronomy
Western heritage. As the Dark Ages tudes the height of the moon in the sky J.L.E . Dreyer has argued. Islamic geod
had waned, and with the rediscovery of would vary in a fashion compatible with esists had reworked Eratosthenes' mea
the works of Aristotle, the notion of a a spherical geography. surements; al-Farghani, working in the
spherical earth entered the curriculum Baghdad group under Calif al-Ma'mun
T
of the newly founded universities. Sac he problem Columbus faced in in the early ninth century, had got
robosco's Sphaera, written in the l3th Salamanca, then, was not convinc the equivalent of 20,400 Arabic miles
century and today holding the record ing Isabella and Ferdinand that (40,253 kilometers, as compared with
as the astronomy textbook with the the earth was round but rather that its the modern figure of 40,075). Colum
most editions, gave a simple argument size and the extent of the Eurasian land bus assumed, incorrectly, that the Ara
for the spherical shape of the earth in a mass made the bold notion of a west bic miles were equivalent to Roman
north-south direction: travelers found ward voyage to Cathay and the Indies ones, which gave him a circumference
that the Big Dipper and Pole Star rose not too unreasonable. The diameter of of 30,044 kilometers, only three quar
ters of the actual distance.
In addition, Columbus significantly
exaggerated the terrestrial longitude of
China and hence its distance from Eu
rope. He reckoned the eastward dis
tance to Japan to be as great as 283 de
grees, putting the westward distance
from the Canaries under 5,000 kilome
ters. These two erroneous estimates
suited Columbus just fine because they
made his daring goal of sailing west
ward to the Indies seem reasonable.
When the court convened in Sala
manca around Christmastide in 1486,
the scholars there objected to Colum
bus's diminished estimate of the size of
the earth. The circumference they de
fended was close to the one we accept
today. Without his fictitious estimate,
Columbus could not have justified his
audacious expedition. The myth of the
learned flat-earthers is "pure moon
shine"; as the eminent biographer Sam
uel Eliot Morison remarked: "Washing
ton Irving, scenting his opportunity for
a picturesque and mOving scene, took a
fictitious account of this nonexistent
university council published 130 years
after the event, elaborated it, and let
his imagination go completely." Irving's
account is gripping drama, "for we all
love to hear of professors and experts
being confounded by simple common
sense. Yet the whole story is misleading
and mischievous nonsense."
I
ndeed, except for his wildly mistak
en geodesy, Christopher Columbus
actually had relatively little to do
with astronomy. He is sometimes de
picted with stars and primitive naviga
tional devices such as the nocturnal
an instrument for finding the time of
night from the position of the Big Dip
GEOCENTRIC UNIVERSE is shown in this print from the Nuremberg Chronicle, a per-but what little evidence exists
world history published in 1493. The round earth is fixed at the center, surround concerning Columbus's use of the stars
ed by the planets, including the moon and sun, and by the sphere of fixed stars. In for navigation suggests that he might
the outermost circle are depicted God and the ranks of angels and the elect. The have got equally good answers just by
four winds decorate the corners of the page. guessing. Confused by the tropical skies

The Earth's Circumference and Continents
C
onflict between Co 1200E 1500E 180 150"W 12O"W 9O"W 6O"W 30"W 0 300E 600E 900E
lumbus's beliefs about ----r--r--
the circumference of the

earth and the arrange
ment of its continents
(top) and Ptolemaic geog
raphy (middle) is clear on
maps. Only by understat
ing the earth's circumfer
ence and overstating the
breadth of Asia could Co
lumbus justify a voyage
west to the Indies. Both
maps of course omitted
North and South America
(bottom). The continents
on the top map are taken
from a globe made by
Martin Behaim in Nurem
berg in 1492.
Columbus's View
900E 1200E 1500E 9O"W 6O"W 3O"W 0 300E WE
Equator
Tropic otI Caori('X)rn
Ptolemaic View
Modern Map


t
,and the absence of familiar circumpo- described the daily and seasonal mo tanus carried on the project and, in or
'tar constellations, he twice mistook the tions of the celestial sphere, but it said der to secure its widespread distribu
star Beta Cephei for Polaris, getting a almost nothing about the motions of tion, became the first scientific printer.
:latitude 21 degrees too far north. As the planets. Ironically, Regiomontanus, the greatest
'
Admiral Morison emphasized, Colum Knowledgeable medieval astronomers, mathematician and astronomer of his
; bus was a dead reckoner, not a celestial however, believed that embedded with century, died in 1474, before he could
;navigator. in the Aristotelian spheres was a com publish either his continuation of Peu
; The one conspicuous and legendary plex series of subsidiary epicycles and erbach's work or his own equally im
'exception to Columbus's unastronomi equants, which produced the varying pressive treatise on trigonometry.
:cal tastes was his use of Ephemerides, direct and retrograde motions of the Peuerbach and Regiomontanus
b y Johann Milller (known as Regiomon planets. These devices had been de grasped the details of Ptolemaic astron
:tanus), to foretell an impending lunar scribed by the Alexandrian astronomer omy, but they were not pleased with
'eclipse. On his fourth voyage Colum Claudius Ptolemy around A.D. 150 in his what they saw. In 1464 Regiomontanus
'bus became stranded on Jamaica, his Almagest, a work so technical that vir wrote a brief but penetrating critique
'ships so wormed they were no longer tually no one in Latin Christendom had of the theory to a fellow mathematical
:seaworthy. A small party head- astronomer. The tables did not
'ed east in an open canoe to give accurate predictions, he re
seek relief from Hispaniola and ported. He had seen Venus three
iits capital, Santo Domingo (in quarters of a degree out and
;the present-day Dominican Re Mars off by a full two degrees,
Ipublic). The governor of His and a lunar eclipse in 1461 had
;paniola, however, was by no ended an hour before the calcu
,means pleased with the idea of lations indicated. Furthermore,
: rescuing Columbus. He feared the moon's apparent diameter,
he might be replaced in his lu according to Ptolemy's theory,
; crative assignment, and so he should sometimes be twice as
,dragged his feet in sending aid. large as it is at other times, a
Months wore on, and about phenomenon never observed.
half of Columbus's men mu
;
tinied and tried to sail by ca icolaus Copernicus, who
: noe to Hispaniola. The Jamaican
iIndians, now sated with glass
;beads and other trading trin
N was born two years be
fore Regiomontanus's
death, was also aware of the
:kets, became increasingly re defects in geocentric predic
'luctant to provide food for tions of planetary positions. At
Ithe diminished but nonethe one point in his notebook he
iless hungry crew. recorded that Mars was two
: From the Ephemerides Co degrees ahead of the tables
'lumbus learned that the moon and Saturn a degree and a half
'would be eclipsed on the leap behind [see "Copernicus and
night of February 29, 1504, Tycho," by Owen Gingerich;
:and he made sure that the Indi SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, Decem
'ans knew that the moon would ber 1973]. Yet he never men
'rise dark and bloody as a sign tioned this fault in print, and
l that God was displeased with his own heliocentric-based ta
:them. The navigator kept out bles did not correct the errors
:of sight until the eclipse was very effectively.
:over and then came out of his That Copernicus was seem
FIREBALL, painted by Albrecht DUrer in 1492, depicts
:cabin to announce that God had a stony meteorite that landed near Ensisheim in Al ingly unconcerned by these de
:answered his prayers on their sace. Although the meteorite was arguably the most ficiencies is a very interesting
;behalf. The event so impressed spectacular astronomical event of that year, the author and important point. Despite
;the Jamaicans that they gave contends that the discovery of the New World had a far popular literature to the con
.Columbus and his crew more greater effect on astronomical thought. trary, errors in the tables of
than enough food to stave off planetary positions had virtual
,starvation. (An echo of the epi- ly nothing to do with the choice
;sode has been enshrined in American mastered it. Ptolemy was also the pre between a geocentric and a heliocentric
,literature in Mark Twain's A Conneeti eminent geographer of his age, and his viewpoint. These two cosmologies were
l eut Yankee in King Arthur's Court.) maps were accepted without question. in effect geometric transformations that
During the 15th century, the Almagest produced virtually identical predictions:
: hY, then, in light of Columbus's merely transforming to a sun-centered
W
was at last rediscovered: for the first
: astronomical defiCiencies, were time there appeared in Europe two as system was insufficient by itself to pro
his voyages so significant for tronomers competent enough to under duce better tables. By the same token,
lastronomy? Splendid as it may seem to stand that fundamental treatise and to errors in prediction could at least ini
la modern astronomer to remember a criticize its earlier commentators. Re tially be corrected within a geocentric
time when astronomy was a required giomontanus and Georg Peuerbach em framework as easily as in a sun-cen
topic for every university student, the barked together on an abridged trans tered one.
:actual level of Sacrobosco's text was lation of Ptolemy's masterpiece. After In fact, Copernicus had no observa
:exceedingly elementary. The Sphaera Peuerbach's death in 1461, Regiomon- tional proof at all for his new blueprint.
'104 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1992


As Gallieo was to say a century later, "I was a student at Cracow when Co Philosophy." He appended a magnifi
cannot admire enough those who ac lumbus made his first voyage. News of cent heliocentric diagram to his pre
cepted the heliocentric doctrine despite these discoveries came quickly to Cra sentation, which contained a novel fea
the evidence of their senses." Instead cow, and to this day the jagiellonian ture: no longer were the stars fixed to
the Polish astronomer was guided by University preserves the oldest known a distant shell, but they were spread
an aesthetic vision-a "theory pleaSing globe showing the New World. Even if out toward infinity. "And therefore," he
to the mind." Copernicus had left before the news ar concluded, "immovable." Presented in
The heliocentric viewpoint explained rived, he surely heard it soon thereafter 1576, this model was a mind-boggling
why Mars, jupiter and Saturn appeared while he was pursuing graduate studies conception, an astonishing step from
to reverse their direction of travel in Italy. the closed world of the ancients to
through the sky only when they were in The Alexandrian astronomer was ward today's vast universe.
opposition to the sun. In the Ptolemaic probably even better known for his ge Digges and several of his contempo
system this retrograde motion was an ography than for the geocentric cos raries, including Kepler's teacher, Mi
accident of nature, a "fact-in-itself." Co mology that bears his name. His Geog chael Maestlin, searched hard for em
pernicus made it a "reasoned fact," and raphy, written in the second century pirical ways to confirm the sun-cen
the lack of an explanation in Ptolemy's A.D., left a crucial legacy to cartogra tered planetary arrangement, but in
system became an anomaly. Once the phers in its instructions for map pro vain. It remained a leap of faith but a
linkages were made, it became obvious jections. Reworking information sorted compelling aesthetic vision to those
why the retrogression for jupiter was out from travelers' reports and from his who understood its unity. The faithful
smaller than for Mars and why the ret predecessor, Marinus of Tyre, Ptolemy also had to discard the long-accepted
rogression for Saturn was smaller than had assembled his best estimates of Aristotelian physics, which predicted
for jupiter. the latitudes and longitudes of loca that birds and clouds would be left far
Finally, Copernicus made sense of tions in the then-known world. These, behind as the earth spun on its axis. As
the mysterious slow displacement of in turn, became the basis of spectacu another contemporary astronomer, Ty
the eighth sphere, the so-called preces lar atlases eventually published in the cho Brahe, declared, "Copernicus no
sion of the equinoxes. The discovery of 1480s. But by the early 1500s his repu where offends the principles of mathe
this motion had troubled classical cos tation was fast eroding. Although Co matics, but he throws the earth, this
mologists. If the earth was suspended lumbus had believed himself to be fol lazy, sluggish body, unfit for movement,
in space, however, revolving about the lowing the old geography, his landing in into a motion as swift as the aethereal
sun, and spinning on its axis, it was not the "Indies" challenged accepted maps. torches [the stars]."
difficult to envision a third motion, a And when it became clear that he had In the absence of observational proof,
slow, conical displacement of that axis. indeed discovered a new continent, the the adoption of Copernicus's blueprint
classical globe was clearly obsolete. If required a climate of opinion willing to
T
hese radical innovations laid the Ptolemy's geography had fallen by the accept new ideas and no longer locked
foundations on which Galileo, wayside, could not his cosmology also into hoary traditions in which ancient
Kepler and Newton built a new be questioned? learning stood on a pedestal. Colum
model of the heavens. Yet Peuerbach The defects Regiomontanus saw in bus helped to provide that new intel
could have made the same geometric claSSical astronomy for the most part lectual climate. His empirical evidence
transformation a century earlier; the Is went uncorrected by Copernicus. Yet decisively demonstrated the incom
lamic cosmologists could have made it the heliocentric blueprint was the single pleteness of Ptolemy's geography and
in the ninth century. Why did the new most essential step for the ultimate re so prepared the way for a revised un
astronomy wait until the 16th century form of astronomy. It offered a wrench derstanding of the place of the earth in
and the opening decades of the Age of ing realignment of human thought, and the cosmos. The old views were crum
Exploration? it paved the way for the brilliant techni bling. By 1611 john Donne would write,
Copernicus lived in an era of rapid cal achievements of Kepler and Galileo. "And new Philosophy calls all in doubt,/
change. Perhaps the most visible of The Element of fire is quite put out;!
those changes was Gutenberg's inven opernicus's De revolutionibus The Sunne is lost, and th'earth, and no
tion of printing from movable type.
With only one known exception, all of
Copernicus's documentary sources were
C was published in Nuremberg in
1543, in a world already pre
pared for change. In 1566 the Basel pub
man's wit/Can well direct him where
to look for it."
printed books. And once his heliocentric lisher Henricpetri issued a second edi
cosmology was written down, it was tion of the work. Among those who ob FURTHER READING
printed in an edition of perhaps 400 tained the reprint was Thomas Digges, ADMIRAL OF THE OCEAN SEA: A LIFE OF
copies, guaranteeing wide distribution who became the first English astrono CHRISTOPHER COLUMBUS. Samuel Eliot
and ongoing discussion of his ideas. mer to convert to the new cosmology. Morison. Little, Brown, 1942.
iNvENTING THE FLAT EARTH: COLUMBUS
Then there was the Reformation. Co Above the title on his copy he wrote,
AND MODERN HISTORIANS. Jeffrey Bur
pernicus was a canon in a Catholic "Vulgi opinio error," "the common opin
ton Russell. Praeger, 1991.
cathedral, whereas the young pupil who ion is wrong," meaning that he no long WHEN Do ANOMALIES BEGIN? Alan Light
persuaded him to allow his De revolu er accepted the time-honored notion man and Owen Gingerich in Science, Vol.
tionibus orbium coelestium to be print that the earth was fixed at the center of 255, pages 690-695; February 7, 1992.
ed was a Protestant from Wittenberg, the universe. THE METEORITE OF ENSISHEIM: 1492 TO
the hub of Lutheran activity. It was a In offering an English translation of 1992. Ursula B. Marvin in Meteoritics,
time of religious upheaval, when many its key cosmological passages, Digges Vol. 27, No. 1, pages 28-72; March
1992.
traditional ideas were under challenge. wrote, "I thought it convenient to pub
COLUMBUS AND AN ECUPSE OF THE
But even more to the point, Coper lish this, to the ende such noble English
MOON. Donald W. Olson in Sky and Tele
nicus lived in an age when courageous minds (as delight to reache above the scope, VoL 84, No. 4, pages 437-440;
seamen were rewriting the time-hon baser sort of men) might not be alto October 1992.
ored geography of Ptolemy. Copernicus gether defrauded of so noble a part of


TRENDS IN MICROMECHANICS
MICRON MACHINATIONS
by Gary Stix, staff writer

Silicon is becoming both bricks and mortar
for armies of gears, valves, pumps and sensing
devices that may turn the surface of microchips
into diminutive factories and laboratories.
T
he Central Intelligence Agency was out of luck: some
one had forgotten the microscope. A group of technical
types from the agency was huddled around the micro
chip that Case Western Reserve University professor Mehran
Mehregany was holding in his hand. But Mehregany's little
eyepiece magnifier could not resolve what was going on down
there on the surface of the chip.
The CIA had not really told Mehregany why it had asked
him to visit Washington to describe his work. Even so, Meh
regany wanted to prove to his audience that his research
was more than just talk, that it is possible to make machines
so small that more than 1,000 of them could fit inside the
block letters "ClA." Without the requisite microscope, the lit
tle dark dot on the smooth silicon surface could just as well
have been a speck of dust as a spinning motor.
Had the CIA staffers been able to see just a bit more clearly,
they would have made out a rotor element that looked a little
like a miniaturized replica of wheels that could have driven a
19th-century mill. And if Mehregany and a few hundred other
researchers are right, microscopic machines may presage a
new industrial revolution-one that could eventually elevate a
gear or a pump the size of a healthy protozoan to a place
alongside the most celebrated valve of all time, the transistor.
The nascent field of micromechanics envisions "smart" pills
that could inject dosages of drugs inside a patient with split
second precision. An array of positioning arms, each element
having a cross section that spans less than a micron, might ma
neuver across a square inch of disk storage space, reading and
writing enough data to accommodate every edition of the En
cyclopaedia Britannica ever printed with lots of room to spare.
A 40-pound mass spectrometer, which can be used as a gener
al-purpose gas sensor, could be reduced-vacuum pumps, de
tectors and all-to the dimensions of a pocket calculator.
The list is beginning to become more than just the imagin
ings of futurists and technophilic dreamers. The field's inter
national, biannual gathering of the tribes, called Transducers,
produced a technical document in 1991 that weighed more
than the Manhattan White Pages. The 1,089-page tome consti
tutes a diverse record: a device moved by bubble pressure, a
microscopic tweezers, a probe to detect nerve signals while
lodged inside the brain and a sensor that, like the human
hand, can distinguish between hard and soft. One version of
Mehregany's micromotors, which were also listed in the table
of contents, might someday serve as the muscle, or actuator,
EARLY MICROMOTOR , with a 130-micron-diameter rotor, is nearly hidden

by a pinpoint. Mehran Mehregany made the motor while he was still a
graduate student at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology_ He contin
ues to pursue the work as a professor at Case Western Reserve University.


for some combination of sensors, valves few hundred thousand motors could
1
and electronics on a single silicon chip pump nearly a liter of fluid each min ULTRAVIOLET LIGHT
capital equipment for a microchemical ute. That is a potentially useful amount,
plant or a cluster of scientific instru although Mehregany still muses on what
ments at a scale of a few microns. to do with a vast garden of micropumps.
At present, these vanishing engines Micromotors will also require more
are rather frail devices. In seminars such than an overnight jump-start by two red SILICON
DIOXIDE
as that held for the CIA, Mehregany must eyed graduate students. For that, mi
constantly field questions about the use croelectronics may help. Photolithogra
SILICON
fulness of a motor that produces sub phy combined with etching by a chem
SUBSTRATE -
stantially more torque than the flagella ical plasma has supplanted stamping
of a salmonella bacterium but still a tiny and casting as the predominant mass BEAM BUILDING ON A ClllP was a grad
fraction of that supplied by a watch production technology of the late 20th uate project for Roger T. Howe. Ultravi
mechanism. And one that required Meh century. Methods for placing thousands olet light streamed through a photolitho-
regany's graduate students, Vijay Dhu of wires and transistors in a space
ler and Keren Deng, to stay up for two dwarfed by Lincoln's right nostril on a
nights to bond the wires from the little postage stamp can also fabricate sub silicon, he noted, "is close to quartz,
machine to a comparatively enormous millimeter spinning and vibrating struc just below chromium, and almost twice
battery and its control circuitry. tures, machines that even Henry Ford as high as nickel, iron, and most com
A solution may lie beneath the micro would have recognized. mon glasses." In addition, silicon's ten
scope's lens. With magnification, the CIA To some, silicon seems an unlikely sile strength exceeds that of steel, al
officials would have seen a few wires structural material, the main constitu though its brittleness keeps it from be
connected to just one motor. Beside the ent of sand castles, not tiny motors nor ing a wonder material in all respects.
working machine were 99 others that little cantilevers whose vibrations mea The micromachines being construct
remained stationary because their elec sure acceleration. ln 198 1 Kurt E. Peter ed by Mehregany and others are an
trodes lacked the requisite connections. sen, then an IBM researcher and now the outgrowth of more than 20 years of re
Mehregany calculates that up to a mil vice president of technology at Lucas search, development and commercial
lion motors could be produced on a NovaSensor in Fremont, Calif., wrote a ization of sensors made mainly from sil
large silicon wafer from which the indi seminal technical paper, "Silicon as a icon. In the oldest process, areas of sin
vidual chips are cut. An ensemble of a Mechanical Material." The hardness of gle-crystal silicon that have first been
ROGER T. HOWE poses with graduate students Clark Nguyen cess and has gone on to develop methods for assembling these
(center) and Weijie Yun (right) at the University of California structures: a small current courses through a fuse two tenths
at Berkeley. Howe pioneered the surface micromachining proof a micron thick (center top) that releases a folded beam (cen-


3 ULTRAVIOLET LIGHT 4 5
POLYCRYSTALLINE
SILICON BASE
WINDOW
graphic mask (1) before hydrofluoric acid etched a "window" and beam structure (3). A chemical plasma etched areas of
in a layer of silicon dioxide(2). A layer of polycrystalline sili lithographically exposed polycrystalline silicon (4). Acid then
con was deposited from a vapor before patterning the base removed, or "sacrificed," remaining silicon dioxide (5).
exposed through a photolithographic ing sensors and actuators that more a transistor element, a gate, that switch
mask are eaten away by alkaline chemi closely parallels the conventional pro es the device off and on when a voltage
cals. Etching produces concave, pyra cess for making integrated circuits. is applied. So he turned to "poly," as it
midal or other faceted holes, depending For his master's degree project, Rog is called, to build his tiny cantilever.
on which face of the crystal is exposed er T. Howe, under the tutelage of his
to the chemicals. These sculpted-out professor, Richard S. Muller, was plan Diving Board on a Chip
cavities can then become the building ning to make a gas sensor-a small vi
blocks for cantilevers, diaphragms or brating beam whose frequency would Howe deposited polycrystalline sili
other structural elements needed to shift as a gas vapor condensed on its con from the gas vapor onto a silicon
make devices such as pressure or ac surface. Howe wanted to make the de substrate. It was patterned with pho
celeration sensors. vice with bulk micromachining but be tolithography and then etched before
This technique, which first emerged came discouraged after discussing his hydrofluoric acid removed, or "sacri
in the 1960s, has come to be known as plans with Petersen and other research ficed," a layer of silicon dioxide to leave
bulk micromachining because the chem ers. Placing capacitors underneath the the suspended beam. Howe went on to
icals that pit deeply into the silicon pro tiny beam to make it vibrate and to complete what had become a doctoral
duce structures that use the entire mass sense the resonance turned out to be project by making a gas sensor.
of the chip. At about the time Petersen an exceedingly difficult task. What was most significant about
wrote his article, a graduate student at In pondering the problem, Howe re Howe's tiny diving board was not the
the University of California at Berkeley membered that polycrystalline silicon gas sensor but how its fabrication re
was butting up against some of the (in which faces of the crystalline up ran lied on the vapor deposition and etch
limitations of bulk micromachining-a domly) is routinely deposited onto a sil ing technology used to manufacture
problem that led to a method of mak- icon substrate from a gas vapor to form the most ubiquitous type of transistor,
the metal-oxide semiconductor. The al
kaline chemicals for bulk micromachin
ing, foreign to conventional chip pro
cessing, were nowhere to be seen.
The technique is called surface micro
machining because it deposits a film of
silicon a few microns thick, from which
beams and other edifices can be built.
The thinness of these structures is a
challenge to the designer, who must de
rive useful work from machines whose
form is essentially two-dimensional.
Since Howe completed his gas sensor,
others have used the technique to build
valves, motors and a strange armamen
tarium of devices that bear more con
nection to a medical textbook than to
the mechanical engineering curriculum.
The gray and black imagery of the scan
ning electron microscope reveals inch
wormlike chains of parallelograms that
expand and contract, arrays of cilialike
elements that curl up from the plane
and push-pull contraptions whose de
sign was influenced by muscle fiber.
Howe, who is today an intense 35-
year-old professor at Berkeley, has add
ter bottom). This process could help fabricate a mechanical acoustic filter (right) a ed still other fabrication methods that
few hundred microns wide. The filter couples vibrations from one set of folded work the surface of a silicon chip as if
beams to another through a spring, the rectangular structure in the middle. it were a piece of sheet metal. At a re-


1 2 3 4
S YNCHROTRON-GENERATED
X-RAYS ELECTRO PLATED
PLATING BASE METAL
POLYMER
M ATERI AL
INJECTION MOLDING of microscopic parts can be carried out plating), Abformung (molding). X-rays from a synchrotron pen
with a process developed at the Karlsruhe Nuclear Research etrate the transparent part of a lithographic mask (1). The ex
Center in Germany. Called UGA, it stands for the German acro posed part of the polymer layer, up to several hundred mi
nym for Lithographie (lithography), Galvanoformung (electro- crons in thickness, is removed using a developing chemical
cent technical conference, he and his came up with the idea for one version friction to the silicon surface. The mo
students presented papers on automat of the micromotor while teaching at the tors also had an annoying tendency to
ed assembly techniques for microme Massachusetts Institute of Technology in run for a few thousand cycles and then
chanical structures. Hundreds of tiny the mid-1980s. The effort to create a mi abruptly lock up. And residual stresses
silicon fuses, two tenths of a micron cromotor quickly became a heated race between the layers deposited in surface
thick, burst in unison when exposed to between M.LT. and Berkeley. (Howe's re micromachining would make the ro
a current, releasing a suspended beam. turn to Berkeley before either side de tors curl up, the "potato chip" effect.
Aluminum weld joints over the entire clared itself a winner created a minor fur Those early motors can prove an em
chip melt when a current is applied, or, although he says he returned to Cal barrassment to entrepreneurs who have
fastening down the beam. ifornia to be near his family and never to explain to a customer or financial
These processes might eventually worked on the micromotor project backer how their microvalve or sensor
help put together Howe's mechanical there.) Berkeley ultimately won the race, differs from what some perceive to be
structures, one of which is a miniature proclaiming, in the summer of 1988, that a toy. In one sense, though, the micro
of a decades-old electrical device. Orig it had successfully powered a micromo motors are a success. Making a rotor
inally, resonating inch-size plates made tor with a series of capacitors that gen turn on a bearing is probably the most
of nickel-iron alloys served to filter erated an electric field to move a rotor. difficult research task for a would-be
acoustic Signals, only to be supplanted The micromotor immediately became micromechanic. A scientist at Bell Labo
by capacitor elements in integrated cir an icon for the young field. Micrographs ratories, which also eventually demon
cuits that were cheaper and smaller, al of beams, cantilevers and comb drives strated its own micromotor, once told
though they did not narrow a signal as look appropriately like something that a group of researchers there that the
efficiently. Now Howe and his graduate one expects to see under a microscope. voltages required for generating the
students have come up with microme But when it was pasted across newspa electric field to turn the rotors would
chanical filters that can produce more pers worldwide, the spinning rotor of be so high as to render the devices in
signal and less noise and are able to the micromotor had a strange but fa operative. It was also thought that the
tune a wider range of frequencies than miliar look. It was a shrunken version micromotors would become bantam air
can the integrated elements that they re of an archaic-looking machine, some cleaners that would be buried under a
place. Hundreds can take up residence thing that might have tormented Char swarm of dust particles attracted by
on a centimeter-square plot that a mi lie Chaplin in Modern Times. the electric field.
crochip occupies. The first micromotors were exceed Neither of these predictions turned
The filter works by using the voltage ingly fragile creatures, ideally suited, in out to be true, and early problems that
from an audio signal, and perhaps one fact, to be the props in a Chaplin movie seemed to confirm doomsayers' proph
day video, to move a series of suspend about technology run amok. Initially, ecies about the incapacitating influences
ed bars back and forth between the sta getting them to spin at all was a prob of friction were also overstated. Certain-
tionary plates of an electrode, a struc lem. The rotors, once released by hydro
ture that is often compared with two fluoric acid from the silicon substrate
intertwined combs. The oscillations, below, would often remain rooted by
transferred by a microscopic spring, al
ter the vibrations of an adjacent set of
comblike digits and electrodes. A filtered
signal results from coupling the reso
nances between the two "comb drives,"
which then get converted back into an
electrical signal. "The integrated circuit
is becoming inefficient compared with a
few coupled resonators," Howe asserts.
Howe's creativity also helped to con
ceive of a more well known but perhaps
less functional product of micromechan
ics research, one of the first rotating mi
cromotors. Howe was among those who
1 10 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1992


5
NJECTION
CASTING
PLATE
6 7 8
-IOLES
PLA STIC
CASTING
CO PIED
METAL STRUCTURE
M ASTER
(2). Nickel or another metal is electroplated onto a base (3). Af make other molds (6). The plastic casting is electroplated (7),
ter the remaining polymer is removed (4), a casting plate is and the plastic and a release layer are etched away to free the
placed over the metal, and plastic is injected through the plate's metal structure (8). Because UGA uses lithography, thousands
holes (5). The metal master is then removed and is used to of masters and molds can be made on a substrate.
ly, a theoretical understanding of fric regany's motor has operated at up to the device is not as flat as a pancake.
tion on the microscale is lacking. But 15,000 revolutions per minute. At lower The amount of torque increases with
Mehregany, who worked on the original speeds, it worked for days on end until the height of the structure; a surface
M.LT. team as a graduate student, has one of his graduate students got tired micromachined motor is only two or
continued to pursue research on micro of baby-sitting the twirling mote. Better three microns thick. To gain the needed
motors vigorously at Case Western. materials and control electronics should depth, some researchers are turning to
His approach is an empirical one. double the top speed and nudge the fric other structural materials than silicon.
Mehregany has alternated different de tional component lower. "Friction is no In the early 1980s Wolfgang Ehrfeld
signs of bearings and bushings to reduce longer a problem," Mehregany proclaims headed a research team at the Karlsruhe
the amount of friction to about 10 per with a touch of overconfidence. Nuclear Research Center in Germany
cent of total torque, still from 10 to 100 Getting more than a few trillionths of that devised a means to make micro
times more than the percentage found a Newton-meter of torque from a micro structures that are thicker than they are
in, say, a washing machine motor. Meh- motor becomes an easier proposition if wide: a nickel device five microns wide
and 300 microns tall, for example. Ehr
feld built his work on a process devel
oped at Karlsruhe for making nozzles
whose curving shape acts like a rninicen
trifuge, allowing for separation of ura
nium isotopes. The technique is known
as UGA, the German acronym for Litho
graphie, Galvanoformung, Abformung.
Like surface and bulk micromachin
ing, UGA relies on lithographic pattern
ing. But instead of the ultraviolet light
streaming through a photolithographic
mask, this process utilizes high-energy
x-rays that penetrate several hundred
microns into a thick layer of polymer.
Exposed areas are stripped away with a
developing chemical, leaving a template
that can be filled with nickel or another
material by electrodeposition (Galvano
formung). What remains may be either
a structural element or the master for a
molding process (Abformung).
As with surface micromachining, UGA
structures can be processed to etch
HENRY GUCKEL, with mallet-wielding

senior graduate student Todd Christen
son, has used UGA to make a rotating
magnetic micromotor at the Universi
ty of Wisconsin-Madison [see right pho
tograph on opposite page]. Christenson
uses a synchrotron in the wee hours
to make gears (center) and occasional
spoofs, like the 200-micron-Iong wrench,
from whose handle the word "Crafts
man" was inadvertently omitted (left).
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1992 III


away an underlying sacrificial layer, leav
ing suspended or movable structures on
a substrate. The entire process can be
carried out on the surface of a silicon
chip, giving LIGA a degree of compati
bility with microelectronics. So far Karls
ruhe has produced plastic optical devic
es as well as metal acceleration sensors,
turbines and motors-three-dimension
al versions of some of the structures
fabricated with surface micromachining.
The Big LIGA
LIGA is at the forefront of a govern

ment-supported bid to place Germany
in the lead in micromechanics, an effort
to make up for the country's failure to
establish a leading world position in
electronics. As research on new nucle
ar reactor technology has slowed, Karls
ruhe plans to deploy more than 200 re
searchers from the institute for work in
LIGA and micromechanics. Meanwhile
KAIGHAM J. GABRIEL, head of a micromechanics program at the Defense Ad
Ehrfeld, the LIGA pioneer, left Karlsruhe
vanced Research Projects Agency, holds a silicon chip from Texas Instruments
about four years ago when he was not
that has two million moving metal mirrors that modulate the brightness of a pro
offered a promotion. He is now setting jection display. As a researcher, Gabriel became a proponent of using arrays of mi
up a competing program at a govern croscopic structures, such as the ciliary motion system devised by Hiroyuki Fujita
ment-supported institute in Mainz. at the University of Tokyo (center). DARPA has funded Cornell University to make
Karlsruhe also helped to transfer this an acceleration sensor using opposing scanning tunneling microscope tips. The top
technology to private industry. It has tip will be suspended on beams with a 200-nanometer cross section (right).
licensed its patents to MicroParts, a
private concern jointly held by steel,
chemical and power-generation compa that was used to study x-ray lithogra than magnetic forces. Guckel believes
nies, which sells LIGA components, the phy for microcircuits. For the past three the scaling arguments may be wrong:
only commercial source anywhere. years, he has experimented with LIGA. operating an electrostatic motor at the
Micromechanics in Germany is more A native of Hamburg who came to the low voltages used to power a semicon
than just LIGA. The government also U.S. in 1950 at the age of 18, Guckel will ductor chip requires very close toler
funnels $70 million a year into what it often try to deflate what he perceives as ances, gaps of less than a micron be
calls microsystems, a hodgepodge of the seriousness of German researchers, tween the rotor of the electrostatic mo
technologies that includes both micro attributing Wisconsin's success to the tor and the electrode that generates the
mechanics and electronics. This pro Europeans' extended vacation sched electric field. A magnetic motor, which
gram is administered by VD1/VDE Tech ules. "I'm encouraging them to take an is driven by a current, not a voltage, can
nology Center, a German institute that is extra 10 days of vacation," he chortles. function with larger gaps at reasonable
coordinating funding for micromechan Ever the jokester, he keeps a mallet on power levels, Guckel contends.
ics. The Microsystem Technology pro his cluttered desk and constantly asks Magnetic motors, though, cannot be
gram is an umbrella for hundreds of students toiling on graduate projects used with some types of semiconduc
small and medium-size companies and that exceed half a decade: "Are you fin tor circuits. And, for now, the tiny gear
research institutes from all over the ished yet?" trains turned by the motors have to be
country. Karlsruhe and VD1/VDE have Guckel's group was the first to make painstakingly assembled by hand. "A
also spearheaded a proposal for estab sets of toothed nickel gears, 50 to 200 microsystems technology for four-shift
lishing a $ I-billion effort within the Eu microns in diameter and 200 to 300 gearboxes is ridiculous," charges Wolf
ropean Community that would focus microns high, that have been linked to gang Menz, who heads the LIGA effort at
on these miniaturization technologies. gether to form gear trains. And, unlike Karlsruhe and who believes that copy
A thorn in the side of the Karlsruhe other researchers who believe that mi ing larger machines is misguided. "A
researchers is Hemy Guckel, a 60-year croscopic mechanical systems require fly has a different design than an ele
old professor of electrical engineer designs specially adapted to the small phant. There is a reason that you can't
ing at the University of Wisconsin-Mad scale, Guckel has recently built a micro minimize an elephant to a millimeter
ison, who claims to have done work Tinkertoy of a motor powered not by size and you couldn't increase a fly to
that the Karlsruhe team has yet to du static electricity but by the same kind five meters in length."
plicate. During the early 1980s, Guckel of magnetically driven electric motors But magnetic motors made from met
began studying polycrystalline silicon that run a kitchen refrigerator. al might be able to take full advantage
as a material for making suspended or Other researchers have avoided using of the small mass of micromachines.
moving structures for sensors. He began electromagnetic forces to propel small They may, Guckel thinks, be driven to
to read-or "read between the lines," gears because they thought that at di higher rotational velocities than elec
as he puts it-the papers cOming out of mensions of 100 microns or so, scaling trostatic ones-up to a million revolu
Germany on LIGA, all the while noting laws would make normally weaker elec tions per minute. "I hope I don't have to
the synchrotron on his own campus trostatic forces equivalent to or greater achieve that before I graduate," quips


over 10 years targeted toward making
small actuators and sensors for fabri
cation of robots for pipe inspections
and intelligent catheters with scalpellike
cutters for surgery. The micromachine
technology project, as it is known, is
Todd Christenson, Guckel's senior stu ing a cooperative organization for devel one of the first large MITI undertakings
dent. Christenson is working on a mul oping UGA. But the group is still, as one in which U.S. companies have been al
tigeared dynamometer that could detect federal official characterized it, a "de lowed to participate. As part of the pro
changes of just a few revolutions in bating SOciety." gram, SRI International in Menlo Park,
gears turning hundreds of thousands of Wisconsin is now the only U.s. univer Calif., has been commissioned by MITI
times a minute. The device would pro sity involved with UGA. But Louisiana to make artificial muscle fibers out of
vide a means of studying the small-scale Tech University has just begun to estab electrostatic actuators or an elastomer
effects of friction and other forces. lish a major research program in micro ic material such as polyurethane.
Guckel's main goal is to move to mechanics that includes the technique. MITI has been involved in faltering
ward a product someone will buy. The The $10 million procured for the Insti negotiations for a contract on control
U.s. Army has expressed interest in a tute for Micromanufacturing from the systems for small machines with Texas
tiny turbine and generator whose energy 1992 federal budget by Senator ]. Ben Instruments. The Dallas-headquartered
would be supplied by waving the device nett Johnston of Louisiana was intended company has made perhaps the most
around in the air, picking up enough to help move the state beyond economic noteworthy prototype of a microme
energy to power a microchip. Still more dependence on oil and gas. But the lev chanical system: an array of two million
compelling is the market for disk drives. el of funding, which is more than the microscopic metal mirrors on a silicon
The IDM Almaden Research Center in entire field receives annually from the chip. Each 16-micron-square mirror tilts
San Jose, Calif., has a research group National Science Foundation and other to an on-or-off position to control the
that is investigating small actuators for government sources, has bred resent amount of light reflected onto a dis
positioning disk-drive heads and small ment among more prominent research play screen.
motors for spinning the disk surfaces. groups that struggle each year for re The MITI program encompasses not
It is exploring a cooperative effort with newal of $50,000 peer-reviewed grants. only lithographic mass production with
Wisconsin. Guckel is fascinated by the The U.S. arguably retains a leading silicon but a grab bag of methods to ma
approximately $50 billion garnered by role in academic research in microme chine tiny parts from metal and plastic
the disk-drive industry every year. " I chanics. Universities with programs in by cutting and grinding each individual
tell m y students that I expect them to the technology have seeded graduates element. Also, Sumitomo Electric Indus
be able to absorb about 10 percent of at such corporations as Ford, IDM and tries, the first Japanese company to ex
that for my retirement," he marvels. Hewlett-Packard. But a broad cross-in ploit UGA, will employ the technique
Guckel's playful demeanor belies dustry commitment is lacking. to make small ceramic microphones for
some of the funding problems with In the meantime, Japanese corpora use with the pipe-inspection robots.
UGA and with other U.S. micromechan tions have begun to emerge as a source Although 100 companies applied to
ics research. High-energy synchrotrons of innovation. Their researchers pre join the MITI effort, only about a quar
for x-ray lithography are research tools sented 21 technical papers at a major ter of that number were selected. But
that in the U.S. can be counted on the conference last year, compared with some prominent Japanese corporations
fingers of one hand. Graduate students only 12 from U.S. companies. Minia view the project with lukewarm inter
at Wisconsin zap their polymer sheets ture sensors and actuators furnish ob est, while internally they continue to
from midnight until shortly after 8 A.M., vious benefits for Japanese industry, focus on silicon machining processes.
when they have to yield the beam to an with its leading position in consumer A few Japanese researchers expressed
other research team. electronics, robotics, microelectronics the belief that MITI chose not to target
Guckel points out that UGA could and automobiles. silicon micromechanics to counter the
produce thousands of inexpensive parts The Japanese government has made perception that Japan copies and com
through an injection molding process the development of technologies for mercializes research that originated in
pioneered at Karlsruhe. Even so, the tre building small machines into a national the U.S., a source of potential trade ten
mendous costs will have to be shared. priority. The Ministry of International sions. MITI denies this contention.
Guckel has been involved with Ford and Trade and Industry (MIT!) last year an Hitachi, the diversified electronics gi
other companies interested in establish- nounced funding of about $200 million ant, is a participant, but its primary re-
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1992 11 3


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THEHUNTINGTON BROZ
N E
search thrust is still with silicon. The ly paltry compared with estimates of
COLLECT IO N company is increasing its staff of four spending in Japan and Germany. Ga
Fine art bronze sculpture full-time micromechanics researchers briel, however, brings a focus to his job
to 10 and is adding a new clean room that the run-of-the-mill bureaucrat may
and semiconductor fabrication line for not. During his tenure at AT&T, he or
micromechanics. Hitachi has already ganized many seminars to help define
achieved a grounding in the technology and explain the field to others. Even
by making prototypes for acceleration more important was the time he spent
sensors, which it supplies to automo in the laboratory.
bile companies. While building a micromotor at Bell
Kazuo Sato, who heads the laborato Labs, Gabriel came up against the two
ry, drills researchers in the complex nu dimensionality of a microactuator and
ances of the field. Every two weeks he the difficulty of trying to extract useful
organizes a session in which a research forces from a machine with circular
er is assigned to study a paper from a parts whose diameter is less than that
recent technical conference and report of a pinhead. So instead of miniaturiz
on it to the group. Unlike at the universi ing replicas of large industrial machin
ty, projects are closely tied to the com ery, as does Henry Guckel, Gabriel tried
pany's broad technology portfolio. Ear to build actuators that could take ad
lier this year Sato presented the lead vantage of the "flatland" produced by
paper at an international conference, in surface micromachining.
which he described a new type of mi
Bronco Buster by g- crovalve that may permit precise control Post-Modern Times
This is one of over 300 "lost wax" bronze sculptures of the amount of gas injected into a vac
in our collection. Call for our full color catalog uum chamber, a procedure essential to Many of these ideas were executed
today! 1-800-777-8126. All sculptures are guar
depositing single atomic layers onto a during a year Gabriel spent on sabbati
anteed and made in the USA Quality, personalized
I
service. substrate for making semiconductors cal from Bell Labs at the University of
that operate using quantum effects. Tokyo's Institute of Industrial Science.
401 E. elprm Ale. l'i,ali.l, CA 9J2i7 While Hitachi builds a clean room, a Brainstorming with Hiroyuki Fujita, Ja
(209) 732-8126 Fax (209) 732-5961

u.s. pioneer in micromechanics has pan's leading academic researcher in
\IU\,ISA walked away from the field. AT&T Bell microactuators, and others turned out
Laboratories was among the first major a series of devices that Charlie Chaplin
companies to get in-and among the would have been hard-pressed to rec
first to leave. Researchers at the Holm ognize: membranes a few hundred mi
del, N.]., laboratory built one of the early crons in diameter inflating above and
CHOICE
micromotors, did research on polycrys then deflating back to the chip's sur
talline silicon and constructed a "wob face like tiny blowfish and matchstick
MAGAZINE
ble" ilotor in which the rotor turns ir like parallelograms that expand and
regularly on its bearing, a design that contract at their vertices. (On his own,
reduces adverse frictional effects. Fujita has produced actuators that curl
LISTENING Bell Labs' micromechanics program up off the surface and back, just as cil
was a victim of the much publicized ia do.) An army of parallelograms ar
This FRE E service-for anyone de
decision by AT&T's research arm to rayed across a chip's surface might pro
prived of the joy of reading by loss of
vision or other handicap-provides 8 narrow its once wide-ranging pursuits. duce enough force and movement to
hours of audio tapes every other month In 199 1 Kaigham ]. Gabriel, the last spe manipulate larger structures. "The in
with unabridged selections from over cialist in micromechanics, went to an dividual actuators are stupid," Gabriel
100 publications such as THE NEW other job after about five other col comments. "But together they behave
YORKER, SMITHSONIAN, ATLANTIC, like a complex device."
leagues had been transferred to other
and SCIENTIF IC A MERICAN. CML
subscribers have been reading the research or had left the company. Ga The parallelograms were just the kind
world's best minds for over a quarter briel had helped stitch together the Bell of moving parts that Gabriel had hoped
century in selections by writers such as Labs effort during the mid-1980s. Bell Labs might consider for Switching
Saul Bellow, John McPhee, Annie A year after he turned out the lights an optical signal mechanically, forgoing
Dillard, Grace Paley, William Styron,
at AT&T, Gabriel was handed the reins the need to convert it into an electronic
Seamus Heaney and Russell Baker.
of a government program that may give impulse and then back into its optical
The special 4-track cassette player is
him a chance to shape the future course form, as is done now. Gabriel believes
provided free, on permanent loan, by
the Library of Congress. of micromechanics in the U.S. Gabriel's micromechanics is "something they're
For information, write: new job at the Defense Advanced Re going to have to get back into." Indeed,
CML, DEPT. 15 search Projects Agency (DARPA) is to Gabriel returned to Bell Labs in late
85 Channel Drive nudge leading academic research toward summer to make a presentation on the
Port Washington, NY 11050, the laboratory door. " In a sense, the DARPA program.
or call: (516)883-8280 honeymoon is over. People aren't will What he described to his former em
ing to see another gadget of the month ployer is a program that will push re
D(HOI(EQ
MAGAZINE LISTENING
come out of this field," Gabriel says.
The DARPA effort is one of the larg
est u.s. government programs in micro
searchers to translate years spent in re
fining microfabrication expertise into
practical machines or sensors. Among
mechanics ever launched, even though the contracts:
A TALKIlYG MAGAZllYE the budget of $20 million to be ex The most sensitive acceleration
pended over three years is still relative- sensor built to date. Cornell Universi-


ty has been refining for more than six
years a reliable process for making the
"Is anyone in Washington

notoriously hard-to-manufacture sens
ing elements and actuators for scanning
probe microscopes used to write com
listening?"*
pany names atom by atom. If all goes
well, the research team there will use
arrays of sensing tips to detect move
ments in any axis caused by forces
ranging from a few millionths up to
several tens of times that of gravity.
Such a device could become the funda
mental technology for a pocket version
of the inertial navigation systems that
allow pilots to know where they are
anywhere on the planet.
A wristwatch-size device made up
of several chips that will measure a
range of variables (barometric pressure,
temperature, humidity, geographic posi
tion and the presence of gases such as
carbon dioxide) that could have broad
application in health care, industrial
control and remote environmental mon
itoring. More important, this University
of Michigan project could become a pre
lude to a new approach to computer
ized design. A gas sensor or a pump will
become j ust another design element in
the software toolbox alongside the tran
sistor and the capacitor.
An actuator from Stanford Univer
sity whose motion would be perpendic
ular to the surface of the chip. Such up
right digits could converge to grasp bi
ological tissue or move small objects in
sequence as if they were riding on an "An excellent overview of the impact of humankind on the biosphere . . .
assembly line.
Historically and scientifically sound." Christian Science Monitor -
As part of another program, DARPA is

supporting an experiment in which de "One of the most notable and surprising books published to coincide with
signs of surface-micromachined struc the Rio gathering . . . Unlike the plethora of environmental publications preoc
tures from all over the U. S. will be cupied with the lamentation and exhortation, this one is packed with hard
processed together at a semiconduc data." - San Francisco Chronicle
tor facility in North Carolina. This trial
"Politely merciless in his critique of Western indifference to the plight of the
will probe whether the field is mature
Third World . . . Piel is not arguing charity, but enlightened self-interest. Is
enough to support a facility for entre
anyone in Washington listening?" - Los Angeles Times *
preneurs and academics to order small
samples of micromechanical systems
- - - - - GET YOUR COPY TODAY - - - - -
for a nominal fee, similar to a DARPA
program for the microelectronics indus W.H . FREEMAN AND CO. 4920
try. As the field rises on the foundation 4419 West 1980 South
established by microelectronics, prog
Salt Lake City, UT 84104
ress may come relatively quickly. "We
o Yes! Please rush me copies of Gerard Piel's ONLY ONE WORLD
don't have to build an infrastructure,"
__
(ISBN 2316) for only $21 .95, plus $ 1 .95 shipping and handling, each .
Gabriel comments.
That may not quell the skeptics in the
Name
audience. On a recent trip to Germa
ny, Henry Guckel, the LIGA proponent, Address
heard the inevitable question about
City/State/Zip
what his mote motors were good for.
Guckel urged patience, explaining to o Check enclosed O VISA o Master Card
the assembled industrialists and aca
Account # Exp. Date
demicians that they could take delivery
of micromachines now or later. Either S i g n ature
way, they might be useful. But it might
Payment in U.S. dollars must accompany all orders. Prices valid in NOrlh America only and are subject to change without notice. Allow
be better to wait, Guckel told the crowd. four weeks for delivery. For Canadian orders. add $2.25 shipping and handling for the first book and $ 1 .50 for each additional book. and
please enclose 7% CST. N.Y. residents. please compute sales tax based on book total and shipping.
"It depends what you want to drive, a
Yugo or a Mercedes. " L _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
SCIENTIFIC AMERlCAN November 1992 1 17

SCIENCE AND BUSINESS
Building Networks
New York Telephone rethinks
work to regain lost customers
t roy Gilchrist knows how it feels to

be thoroughly versed in a job
and to be good at it. A 22-year
veteran of the New York Telephone com
pany and union member, Gilchrist has
repaired and spliced every kind of tele
phone line from twisted copper pairs
to optical fibers in buildings throughout
New York City. "You get into a mind
set," he says. "You say, 'This is the way
I've been working. So I don't want to
hear anything about changing it.' "
Yet for the past year, Gilchrist has
been part of an eight-man commando
team charged with doing just that: re
thinking how the telephone company
goes about "provisioning," or providing
customers with one of its most ad
vanced products, and then radically re
structuring how the work gets done.
At stake are hundreds of millions of
dollars of business. Since the deregula
tion of the telecommunications industry MEMBERS of the telephone company's T1 Center, led by Eric Wilson (seated, left), are
in the mid-1980s, New York Telephone's at the heart of an experiment in redesigning work practices. Photo: Dan Wagner.
share of the Manhattan market for pri
vately leased, high-speed data high
ways, called Tl networks, slipped from boutique consultancies, management multitude of reasons why the phone
100 percent to about 64 percent this gurus are telling corporations to take a company had stumbled-126 to be pre
year. These services are used by busi long, hard look at how work really gets cise. "We looked at the process from A
nesses from banks to long-distance done and fix the process. to Z," Gilchrist says, from the central
communications companies to ship 1.5 Such concerns hit home at New York office through the field construction. "I
million bits of data per second between Telephone's parent, Nynex, in early think it was the first time that anybody
offices along a single, private path. An 1991 as its share of Tl business con had an idea of what the whole process
alysts estimate that the U.S. market for tinued to melt away. Mello toyed with looked like," he adds. Filling an order,
leasing such lines tops $2 billion. "We hiring consultants. "But you only really the group discovered, involved 126
lost Significant market share in one of get discernible change if the people clos worksteps and more than 40 people.
the premier products in our arsenal," est to the problem are involved," he says. Although many individuals were re
concedes Douglas]. Mello, a group vice So, in a first for the telephone company, sponsible for some part of a Tl instal
president at New York Telephone. Mello appointed a design team staffed lation, no one saw the job through until
Now Mello is betting that Gilchrist jointly by "craft," or union, workers and the end. For instance, customers spoke
and his collaborators have designed a first-line managers and set them to the first with a service representative. The
plan for reversing that slide. "There's no task of sharpening the way the compa "rep" would take down some details to
reason why we shouldn't do better," ny handled orders for Tl lines. When he start the order and suggest when the
Mello insists. Seventy-five to 80 percent learned that researchers in the Nynex company might hook up service.
market share would be "reasonable," Science and Technology expert system But that timetable was only a best
he suggests. What is more, Mello hopes laboratory were already beginning to guess-the rep was unlikely to know any
that the technique of rethinking work model work processes, Mello pulled of the engineering details that would de
practices will be applied more broadly them into the project as "facilitators." termine how quickly service could be
within the telephone company. Among the researchers was one con connected. And although the rep would
The effort puts New York Telephone sultant, anthropologist Patricia Sachs. have recorded all the data needed to
at the forefront of a sweeping trend "Yes, we get a few smirks about the an process the order, engineers would like
that promises to be as embracing as thropologist," Mello says. "But the busi ly need other information-a guarantee
the 1980s doctrine of quality. From the ness is about people, and we had to un of future delays. "We used to think, 'If
halls of the Massachusetts Institute of derstand how the job gets done." only those other guys could have done
Technology to the conference rooms of Gilchrist and his teammates found a their job right, then there would be no


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principle is that computer systems
problem! ' " recalls Eric Wilson, a mem
Cool Sounds
ber of the design team and a former should be designed to help people learn
rep. "But we never really knew what was to do their jobs rather than simply tak An acoustic compressor pumps
going on at that other end." ing over tasks such as scheduling. up the volume on refrigeration

Orders from the sales reps were then Within six months, the design team
routed to the Digital Facilities Quality was ready to offer senior managers its
Center, which passed jobs, like so many new approach. "We wanted four organi ter years spent developing whis
soccer balls, to service supervisors, who zations collapsed into one," Graham re per-quiet refrigerators, appliance
in turn routed them to various tech counts, and proposed shifting respon makers may turn to noise to
nicians. Scheduling was coordinated by sibilities so that one small group would cool the next generation of iceboxes. A
a computer, which distributed job tick be responsible for an entire Tljob. Co physicist-turned-entrepreneur has de
ets. Should one technician encounter ordinating the work would be a "Tl veloped a lubricant-free sonic compres
a snag, he might simply go on to the Center." Most daring was a proposal sor that promises to be more energy ef
next job as another worker was sent to eventually create a job that would ficient than standard compressors and
out to solve the problem. "So a custom bridge the traditional union-manage can use refrigerants not based on ozone
er might see three dispatchers march ment divide. After the presentation, depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).
ing in and out and still not have Tlser Sachs recalls, "someone said, 'We asked Timothy S. Lucas, president of Sonic
vice," Gilchrist points out. And only you to organize a radical change, and Compressors Systems in Glen Alien,
rarely did the reps-who talked with by God, you did it!' " Va., believes his compressor may prove
customers-ever talk with engineers or Transforming the ideas into action to be the tonic the appliance industry
with technicians. turned out to be harder than the team needs to meet the upcoming stringent
With the help of the Science and Tech expected. "We had a whole lot of good CFC regulations and energy efficiency
nology facilitators, Mello's group began stuff," Gilchrist says, "but the only peo requirements. Lucas says his start-up
to probe the work practices more deep ple who knew it were us. And wow-the company has built working prototypes
ly, modeling the work flows on a com rest of the world was big!" Senior man and is negotiating a contract with a ma
puter. Some simple changes seemed ob agement decided to give the new plan jor refrigerator maker. He hopes to
vious: the design team quickly recom a six months' trial in downtown Man demonstrate his device in a domestic
mended rewriting the form filled out hattan but required one compromise: refrigerator in early 1993.
by the reps as they took orders to in rather than try to negotiate a new job What makes the instrument promis
clude more appropriate information. title, New York Telephone would sim ing is that it is a drop-in replacement
"This sounds simple," says Elizabeth R. ply bring three types of workers-reps, for conventional compressors and so
Graham, who headed the facilitators' engineers and trunk assignors-into will not require retooling or other ex
group. But it took almost a year to elic the TlCenter and sit them down side pensive procedures. In addition, "we
it and coordinate all the relevant ques by side. "They'll do all the front-end should be able to make the compressors
tions for the new form, she adds. work," Graham explains, and can call at a comparable price," Lucas says. Cou
More fundamentally, the team ex on one another to handle questions. pled with a projected improvement in
plored paradigms, or descriptions, of From the Tl Center, the orders will energy efficiency of 30 to 40 percent
how different groups interact. Led by flow to a turf coordinator, responsible over existing compressors, manufactur
Sachs, the members talked about how for some section of the city. That coor ers may save on more expensive tech
African bands function, how the tele dinator will track the progress of the niques for effiCiency, such as increas
phone company used to work and how job until completion, keeping in close ing insulation or adding larger heat ex
they would organize a start-up company touch with the technicians. According to changers and more powerful fans.
that sold Tlservices. They visited oth the simulations run by the Science and Standard compressors in refrigera
er divisions of the company and even a Technology researchers, the plan should tors generally rely on pistons or rotors
branch of COrning, Inc., to watch how enable a team of a dozen-rather than to compress the cooling gas. Because
self-managed teams performed. 40-people to set up a new Tlservice refrigerators are expected to function
The group even tried imagining the in two or three days, down from more trouble free for 15 to 20 years, the com
perfect employee-"Melvin"-who could than seven. The coordination relies on pressors must be lubricated to prevent
do everything himself, then gradually communication among people, rather excessive wear. And the refrigerant and
gave Melvin perfectly adept assistants. than on computer scheduling, pOints the lubricant must be compatible. The
By thinking about what information out David M. Torok, a facilitator. most ideal mix has been mineral oils
Melvin needed to get his job done, Sachs Late this September the trial was and CFC 12, which is scheduled to be
notes, it became clear who needed to scheduled to Swing into action. Mello phased out over the next few years, pos
talk to whom to move ahead a job like will be watching for evidence that cus sibly by 1996 . As a replacement, the
setting up a Tlline. "You thought you tomers are happier and that the time chemical industry is pushing hydro
understood your job, but you were only for setting up services has dropped. The fluorocarbon (HFC) 134a, a substitute
acting in a little box," Wilson observes. Science and Technology researchers will that developers claim has no known ef
"We came out of that box," Gilchrist be monitoring how people learn to col fect on the ozone layer and should pro
adds, "but reluctantly." laborate and looking for clues about duce only a minimal greenhouse effect.
Over the weeks the design team ar how to design future software systems. Some refrigerator engineers worry
ticulated a set of guiding prinCiples, or Wilson, who will be acting manager of that lubricants compatible with the new
ways that the team members wanted to the TlCenter, plans to urge workers to refrigerant may not be developed in
work. Ensuring that people were respon keep seeking ways to smooth the pro time. The appliance industry has been
sible for an entire project-from order cess. Gilchrist has returned to his work evaluating ester-based oils, but tests so
to installation-was on the list. Also im as a splicer and is already helping people far have not been encouraging. "The lu
portant, Sachs adds, was the belief that sort out the new teamwork approach. brication properties are not as good as
knowledgeable workers are valuable as "It's sure been a real education," he says those of mineral oils," says Carl Offutt,
sets. The practical implication of that with a smile. -Elizabeth Corcoran the general manager of engineering at


the Whirlpool Corporation. Further sion. Lucas spent a year at Los Ala Semiready
more, "funny things start happening mos National Laboratory working with
when you add other compounds to acoustic and engine-cycle expert Grego A consortium prepares for
improve the lubricant's effectiveness," ry W. Swift to find a solution. "The trick the second half of the battle
he remarks. Over time the ester oils re was the geometric design of the res
act with HFC 134a and other oils used onator," Lucas points out. The shape
M
to manufacture components to form a made the higher harmonics that caused urphy's second corollary says
waxy residue that plugs up the refriger the shock waves to interfere with one everything takes longer than
ator tubes. The oils, too, may react with another, leaving only the fundamental expected. Saving the U.s. semi
water to corrode the internal parts, so frequency in the cavity. conductor industry is no exception.
that refrigerators would have to be To an industry known for extreme In 1987, with nerves still jangling from
made in a moisture-free environment. caution in introducing new technology, watching Japanese competitors gobble
In contrast, Lucas's compressor needs a radically redesigned compressor may up the market for dynamic random-ac
no lubrication, and that means "throw seem risky. Nor have manufacturers for cess memories (DRAMs), U.S. industry
ing away oil restraints" in finding an gotten General Electric's debacle with its and government created Sematech, the
environmentally friendly refrigerant, Lu rotary compressor in the 1980s. After Semiconductor Manufacturing Technol
cas says. The sonic compressor is sim rushing it into prodUction, GE discov ogy research consortium. According to
ply an oddly shaped tube that acts as a ered the compressor was defective; the the founders, Sematech would develop
resonance cavity for the refrigerant. company spent an estimated $450 mil manufacturing techniques that any U.s.
The entire resonator moves back and lion to recall the products. But Lucas is chip maker could use, thereby honing
forth about 50 microns along its cylin unperturbed. "It appeared to be more America's overall competitive edge. To
drical axis at about 340 hertz. The os of a management problem rather than pay for the project, industry and gov
cillation creates a standing wave in the an engineering one," he notes. ernment each agreed to spend $100
cavity. Because the cavity is designed Refrigerator companies may have few million annually for five years.
so that the standing wave reinforces it other alternatives if they cannot meet That time is up. Although U.S. mem
self, the pressure changes achieved in tough energy efficiency standards cost ory chip makers are not yet on firm
the tube are large. In terms of sound effectively or find an HFC 134a-com ground, many believe Sematech has in
pressure, the amplitude is about 200 patible oil. Manufacturers should be stead helped stabilize the other half of
decibels, but the compressor is nonethe able to meet 1993 efficiency guidelines the chip business-namely, the semi
less quiet because the mass of the tube by tweaking existing parts. But the oil conductor manufacturing equipment
prevents any sound from escaping. A compatibility issue remains, well, sticky. industry. Now, supporters suggest, Sem
valve vents the pressurized refrigerant One industry expert thinks manufac atech can turn back to its original mis
into tubing that circulates the fluid. turers could end up shortening the war sion of directly addressing the needs of
The biggest problem Lucas faced in ranted lifetimes of the machinery if the chip makers. As a result, Sematech's
his design was eliminating shock waves gumming is not solved. All the more leaders are pounding the pavement at
that formed in the cavity, wasting power reason, perhaps, to chill out with a new Capitol Hill, arguing that they have
as heat and thereby limiting compres- compressor. -Philip Yam spent the money wisely and that the
government should continue the con
sortium's allowance. "I don't think there
is anyone who will not say Sematech
Refrigerating by Sound has done a lot of good things for U.S.
industry," says Richard A. Aurelio, an
RESONATOR I LOW-PRESSURE GAS executive vice president with Varian
CAVITY \jI FROM EVAPORATOR Associates in Palo Alto, Calif.
Representatives of the Bush adminis
tration are also enthusiastic. "We feel
that Sematech's been extremely effec
tive," says Arati Prabhakar, who directs
the microelectronics technology office
INTAKE at the Defense Advanced Research Proj
VALVE
ects Agency (DARPA). Yet as Sematech
has reached the five-year mark, DARPA'S
DISCHARGE obligation is over, she says. "We're not
VALVE in the business of perpetuating block
funding," Prabhakar adds. The govern
ment has proposed trimming funding
to $80 million in fiscal 1993. (Observers
nonetheless believe Congress will re
store Sematech's $100 million.)
RESONATOR
MAGNET SPRING SUPPORT Measuring Sematech's performance
precisely is tricky. Earlier this year mar
The sonic compressor is driven like an ordinary loudspeaker. The oscillation ket research analysts estimated that
creates in the resonator cavity a high-amplitude standing wave, which com the erosion of American firms' market
presses the refrigerant gas. A one-way valve vents the gas to a condenser, shares in chips and equipment had
which liquefies and cools it. The liquid circulates around the space to be stopped; some reports indicated that at
cooled, evaporating and thus absorbing heat. The gas is then pulled back least the top few equipment makers
into the compressor to repeat the cycle. gained some market share during 1991.
But industry leaders caution that any


such gains are short-lived at best. For eral Signal and the Silicon Valley Group
Intercepted Messages
the equipment industry, at least, "the to buy out faltering U.S. toolmakers and
claims that we're regaining market share have another go at building advanced New biotechnology drugs target
against the Japanese aren't true," Aure lithographic steppers, the devices that intracellular communication
lio says. Japanese chip makers bought project integrated-circuit patterns onto
little equipment last year, he points out. semiconductor wafers. The Silicon Val
T
"As soon as the Japanese start investing ley Group received significant aid from he recognition that cells receive
again, we'll be down. " IBM, in the form of a pledge to buy 20 instructions from hormones and
Even so, equipment makers say the advanced steppers. Yet without Sema growth factors provided a foun
program has enabled them to under tech the deal would have fallen through, dation for the biotechnology industry
stand better their customers' needs. Der Torossian says. in the 1970s. At the time, few people
Since they were brought together under In its sixth year, Sematech's leaders categorized proteins such as inSulin and
the Sematech umbrella, tool and chip aim to refocus the consortium's atten erythropoietin as "first messengers. " It
producers speak more freely. Although tion on issues of immediate concern to was enough to know that such proteins
individual firms were working on the chip makers-such as computer-inte instigate cellular change by binding to
quality and reliability of their products, grated manufacturing and fighting con receptors in the membrane surrounding
the only systematic cross-industry pro tamination in clean rooms. At the same cells-and that making them in quanti
gram that took hold was Sematech's time, Sematech plans to help chip man ty would provide treatments for dia
Partnering for Total Quality, observes ufacturers advance to ever more sophis betes and anemia.
Papken Der Torossian, chairman of the ticated and densely patterned chips. Today the way that communication
Silicon Valley Group in San Jose, Calif. Equipment makers worry they will be proceeds inside the cell after a surface
Tool and chip researchers also col left behind. More complex chips, Bonke receptor is contacted is the rallying in
laborated on standard techniques for observes, will require new tools. "I'd like terest of a new group of biotechnology
approximating the mean time between to see more direct investment in the companies. When a receptor is bound,
failures and for estimating the cost of form of guaranteed loans to manufac its configuration shifts. That action
a new tool, says Neil R. Bonke, presi turers to develop new technology," Au summons a variety of so-called second
dent of General Signal's semiconductor relio adds. messengers, which in turn signal other
equipment operations in Santa Clara, Others suggest there are more roles chemical carriers inside the cell. This
Calif. "Before Sematech, buyers wouldn't for Sematech. Der TorossiCtIl would like "psst, pass it on" process, known as
accept your figures," he explains. They to see Sernatech serve as a clearing signal transduction, is opening path
relied instead on homegrown models house for information about all the ways for treating asthma, allergies, ar
for calculating likely costs and failure government-funded research programs thritis, cancer, cardiovascular disease,
rates. "Now when asked, we're all using in microelectronics. Sematech "should psoriasis and other disorders. "It is now
the same sheets of music." be used as a catalyst to organize and widely accepted that many diseases are
Sernatech also helped the industry maximize the semiconductor R&D that the result of dysfunction in signal trans
develop specific tools. Even though Ap we do in the national labs," he says. duction pathways," points out Arthur G.
plied Materials is the top u. S. semi For now, Sematech has its eye on se Altschul, Jr., director of planning for
conductor equipment maker, "we have curing the funding it believes it needs Sugen in Redwood City, Calif.
huge R&D expenses. It is difficult to go to move chip manufacturing to the Firms including Ariad, Cadus, Onyx,
it alone," says Dan Maydan, executive next generation of devices. The priority Sphinx and Sugen intend to manufac
vice president at Applied Materials in of Sematech's first five years was to ture small molecules that block or mim
Santa Clara, Calif. Technical-and finan catch up with Japanese competitors, ic the action of second messengers and
cial-aid from Sematech accelerated says DARPA'S Prabhakar. "Now," she their followers. All believe that signal
the development of a new etching tool. adds, "the issue is to provoke funda transduction offers numerous points for
Support from Sematech enabled Gen- mental change." -Elizabeth Corcoran pharmaceutical intervention, even if the
pathways are poorly marked as yet.
"We're trying to figure out an incredi
Where Sematech Spent Its Money bly complex railroad and Switching sys
tem by just having direct experimental
From 1982 through 1992 Sema evidence for some of the parts," ex
tech received $990 million. The plains Glenn L. Cooper, executive vice
consortium spent $287 million (29 president of Sphinx in Durham, N.C.
percent) on external research and
"How the conductors talk, what the
development (right). Another $214
common switch boxes are and what the
million paid for on-site facilities
overall timetable is are only now being
and equipment, supplemented by
pieced together."
$135 million for clean-room sup
plies and $84 million on equip
Sphinx's approach revolves around
ment for specific projects. Labor the lipids, or fats, that make up cell
costs consumed $185 million. membranes. "It's a particularly attractive
place to work," Cooper says, noting that
LITHOGRAPHY lipids regulate certain key second mes
sengers, such as protein kinase C (PKC),
CENTERS OF EXCELLENCE
AND NATIONAL LABORATORIES an enzyme that mediates cell functions,
CONTAMINATION-FREE including inflammation and prolifera
D MANUFACTURING D MULTILEVEL METALS tion. When a growth factor binds to a
COMPUTER-INTEGRATED receptor on the cell surface, a lipid mol
D MANUFACTURING
D DISCRETIONARY FUND o OTHER
ecule lodged in the membrane is chem
SOURCE: General Accounting Office ically cleaved in two. One of the frag-


growth messages echo through cells.
Steps in Intracellular Signal Transduction Altschul notes that phosphatases can be

thought of as brake pedals.
At Sugen, researchers are screening
BINDING PROTEIN, diseased tissues to see if they find re
SUCH ASA
ceptors that are not present in or are
GROWTH FACTOR TRANSD UCING
PROTEIN somehow different from those in nor
mal tissue. They presume these recep
., tors are a mechanism for the disease.
If the receptors contain tyrosine kinas
es, Sugen begins looking for matching
phosphatases or other means of turning
off the process. The company expects
to begin testing drugs based on these
discoveries in humans in two years.
Following a similar vein of inquiry,
Cadus in New York City is seeking to
inhibit the transfer of molecular groups
that alter receptors coupled to so-called
CYTOPLASM
G proteins. The receptors for light in
the back of the eye act on G proteins,
explains Samuel D. Waksal, chief execu
tive officer of Cadus and its parent com
pany, !mClone. "In the eye, one photon
of light activates a receptor. Then G
binding proteins set off a cascade of
messages that is amplified until you
SOURCE: Ariad Pharmaceuticals see the light," he notes. Inflammation
and allergy and many other responses
to single molecules may proceed the
ments is released, activatingPKC inside ters the receptor's intracellular configu same way, Waksal says. But chronic dis
the cell and kicking off a cascade of cell ration, an event that prompts the cell to eases can develop when a signal does
division and inflammation. "That's when spew out its stores of histamine. "It's not stop. Cadus is intent on blocking
all hell breaks loose," Cooper declares. like a bolt of lightning hitting a tree and transfer events known as methylation
Sphinx believes blocking the signal causing the root to change," says Joan and prenylation that enable G proteins
that switches on PKC may prove bene S. Brugge, Ariad's scientific director. to couple to receptors.
ficial in treating a spectrum of illness A drug to prevent the altered roots There are many regulatory proteins
es, including psoriasis, a chronic skin of the mast cell receptor from contact hard-wired into the pathway from cell
disorder that affects 2. 5 million people ing the intracellular components that membrane to nucleus, reminds Frank
in the U.S. This October psoriasis pa trigger release of histamine might be McCormick, vice president of Onyx. The
tients at the University of California at effective against allergies. Ariad says it Richmond, Calif., spin-off of Chiron is
Irvine were scheduled to begin testing intends to begin testing such a com devoted to designing cancer drugs based
an ointment that interferes with the ac pound in humans within several years. on signal transduction. "We're going for
tion ofPKC. The company expects that effort to help the ras pathway, which includes tyro
Meanwhile Ariad Pharmaceuticals is it devise other drugs. "What we learn sine and other kinases," he says. Muta
exploring drugs for treating allergies from mast cells will be relevant to other tions in the ras gene (which is involved
and asthma. Because patients with these actors of the immune system, such as T in the growth of normal cells) lock it
illnesses experience acute attacks, "you and B cells," Berger observes. "There are into an active state in many cancers,
can test a drug and know whether it a lot of similarities already" that pro causing signal transduction pathways to
works in 15 minutes," observes Harvey vide insights into rheumatoid arthritis be hyperactive. "Anti-ras drugs are likely
Berger, the Cambridge, Mass., compa and other diseases, he notes. to slow down the growth of tumors-for
ny's chief executive officer. In contrast, Other researchers are interested in how long is unknown," McCormick spec
cancer drugs usually require lengthy how cells pass messages by transfer ulates. "Maybe the cells will die out or
trials in large numbers of subjects. The ring electrically charged groups of mol will sit latent while the drug is present."
firm began corporate life earlier this ecules from one protein to another. Sec McCormick acknowledges that shut
year with a private placement of $46 ond messengers often spur these move ting down pathways used by normal
million, the largest yet garnered by a ments, which are carried out by specific cells raises concern about potential ill ef
biotechnology company. enzymes. For example, kinases add fects such drugs might have on healthy
Ariad's initial target is an interaction negatively charged phosphate groups; tissues. But experiments in mice with a
that results in the release of histamine phosphatases reverse that action. variety of cancers indicate that remov
a phenomenon all too familiar to aller In various kinds of cancer, and possi ing the genes responsible for destruc
gy and asthma sufferers, who experi bly non-insulin-dependent diabetes, the tive pathways has not harmed the crea
ence the itchy, irritating results. When culprit appears to be the enzyme tyro tures. "It seems that normal cells find
an allergen such as pollen enters the sine kinase. "It's a gas pedal for the a way around," he says. The early prom
body, the immune system dispatches specific functions of cell growth and ising results from signal transduction
an antibody to meet it. The complex glucose uptake," says Altschul of Sugen. research are encouraging scientists to
then binds to a receptor waiting on the The enzyme's ability to transfer phos follow pathways they might otherwise
surface of a mast cell. The binding al- phate groups is critical to the way have avoided. -Deborah Erickson


Intuitive Design find their targets can also be written to
recognize the shapes of molecules, ex
Artificial intelligence helps a plains Michael J Ross, president and
drugmaker learn what works chief executive officer of the South San
Francisco firm. Similarly, programs de
veloped by robotics researchers to move
I
f at first you don't succeed, then try, a mechanical arm without knocking
try again: such is the tradition of down obstacles allow the computer to
drug development. The sometimes contemplate how a drug contacts its
intuitive, basically trial-and-error pro receptor. "We're not developing expert
cess typically involves screening 20,000 systems to replace medicinal chemists,"
to 40,000 compounds to find a single Ross notes. "We're developing tools to
The United States promising lead. For every 4,000 leads augment their intuition."
Academic Decathlon examined, often no more than one be The company is using its AI systems
comes a marketable drug. To rein in this in-house, initially to optimize drugs for
Learn about the challenge! The U.S. randomness, medicinal chemists have asthma and to create an orally active
A c ad e mic Decathlon is a national been attempting for the past 10 years form of erythropOietin, the red blood
scholastic competition which provides to construct drugs that fit precise tar cell stimulator. "The computer should
r e cognition and reward f o r solid gets, such as receptors on cell surfaces. help us decide early on what to synthe
academic endeavor. Individual high Computer-aided approaches to "ra size, so we will make only 10 percent of
school students compete in their grade tionally" designing drugs have not yet the molecules we would otherwise have
point category: A, B, or C and below. worked as well as researchers had to," Ross declares.
Te ams compete a c r o s s a range o f hoped. The methods tend to rely on an In the process, researchers program
events for important awards: scholar image of a molecule in what is pre into the computer descriptions of mole
ships, medals, pride in themselves, sumed to be its ideal configuration-for cules and the results of their perfor
their teams and their schools. instance, at the moment of binding. Be mance in biological assays. The com
cause few computer design programs puter analyzes the data to determine
The greatest award, for young people, can acknowledge the mutual shape what all the compounds that work have
is educational achievement. The U.S. changes between a molecule and its re in common and how they differ from
Academic Decathlon seeks renewed ceptor, drug designers may be misled those that do not work. The scientists
respect for schoolwork at all levels, into creating a "perfect" compound that apply the computer's observations in
started and sustained during the im cannot function in the body. the next round of experiments, steadily
portant pre-college years, open not just Arris Pharmaceuticals believes artifi building a data base of experience. "Peo
to the intellectual elite but to a spec cial-intelligence (AI) systems are a bet ple just cannot remember all the data
trum of able students. In 1991,25,000 ter way of utilizing the strength of they've seen," says Tomas Lozano-Perez,
young people took part in Decathlon computers in drug discovery. Comput a researcher in computer vision and
competitions culminating in an excit er algorithms similar to the kind that robotics at the Massachusetts Institute
ing National Finals. enable U.S. military cruise missiles to of Technology and an Arris consultant.
Scientific American is pleased to join

American Airlines, The Krausz
Companies, Inc., GTE, D.C. Heath, the
Le n n ox Foundation, Ronald Mc
Donald's Children's Charities, North
rop, The Psychological Corporation,
Raytheon, TRW and others in sponsor
ing the U.S. Academic Decathlon. All
of us salute the many local companies
and organizations which help their
schools and their children participate.
We invite you.
Please send for more information; your
participation is needed, and your effort
and support will have major impact.
Thank you.
Yes, please tell me more!

Name _______________________
Address _____________________
City ________ __ ________ _____
State Zip _______
Mail to: USAD

c/o Scientific American
415 Madison Avenue
New York, NY 10017-1111 MOLECULAR SURFACES, analyzed in detail with arti(idal intelligence, may prove to
have patterns that influence the performance of drugs. Photo: Arris Pharmaceuticals.


THE AMERICAN HEART
"Machine learning algorithms will find
ASS<IIATION
patterns that exist in all the data."
MEMORIAL PRG;RAM
By relying on computers to track ex
periments, Arris hopes to be able to
model molecules in much greater detail
-
than is now common. Most computer
representations of drugs focus on a
few points and the distance and angles
between them, Lozano-Perez explains:
"We're finding you need more like 100
American Heart .
data points to characterize a molecule
properly." Attributes such as molecular Association
charge and hydrophobicity add dimen
This space provided as a public service.
sionality that is difficult for humans but
simple for computers to consider.
Arris scientists anticipate that map
ping the surfaces of molecules in detail
will free them of established notions
concerning the way certain classes of
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THE ANALYTICAL ECONOMIST
theless, more than 20 U.S. organizations

A Risk Worth Taking use group lending to fund small enter
prises. Some, such as the Women's Self
P
oor people have few assets. As a repaid before anyone becomes eligible Employment Proj ect in Chicago, have
result, few financial institutions for a second, larger loan. repayment rates of nearly 100 percent.
are eager to lend them money. Ac Peer lending solves several problems ( The U.S. student loan default rate is
cording to conventional economic wis that are inherent in all capital markets currently 19 percent.)
dom, poor borrowers lack the income but are particularly thorny for the poor. Despite the outstanding repayment
to pay off loans. Worse, if they default The first is lack of information. If a bank records of these small lending organiza
there is no collateral to seize in lieu of does not know a client's history, it can tions, some economists question wheth
repayment, although loan sharks may not adequately assess the risk of lend er they are really profitable. Grameen,
circumvent this problem by seizing bor ing. Although the expected profit on a for example, still requires a subsidy to
rowers instead of their assets. That no $ l OO-million corporate line of credit can meet its operation costs.
one lends to the poor is generally ac justify detailed fact-finding, the interest Yet Grameen "wouldn't take much
cepted as proof there is no money to on $ 6 7 for a year would barely cover to become profitable, " argues J. D. Von
be made at it. the telephone call for a computerized Pischke of the World Bank . Alexander
Several banks and financial groups credit report-assuming that a landless M. Counts of RESULTS, a nonprofit
are successfully abandoning this preju Bangladeshi farmer had a documented group working on world hunger, con
dice. Many poor people, it turns out, credit history. tends the bank will be in the black in
are more than creditworthy under the In contrast, people from a village a few years. " It was not profitable be
right circumstances. Consequently, so or neighborhood know one another. cause it was expanding rapidly until re
cial betterment can be profitable-both In effect, they eliminate the costs that cently," he explains. Bank Rakyat lndo
in the Third World and the U.S. " There the lender would otherwise have to nesia, which provides rural credit na
really is a market niche for these inno pay to determine creditworthines s . " It tionwide, is already profitable, notes
vative forms of lending, " says Michael is hard for people in the hierarchy Marguerite S. Robinson of the Harvard
Carter of the University of Wisconsin. to have as good information as peers lnstitute for lnternational Development.
"Capital markets tend not to take care The apparent success of Grameen,
of people very well." Rakyat and similar institutions also ex
The programs that work rely on small People considered "poor poses economists' disregard of the in
loans, short repayment periods and,
frequently, group lending. The most
credit risks " have loan formal sector (small-scale self-employ
ment) as an engine for development.
famous is the Grameen (or "village") repayment rates of As much as half of the gross domestic
Bank of Bangladesh, whose average nearly 1 00 percent. product of Latin American countries, for
loans of $ 6 7 , roughly equivalent to half example, comes from such activitie s,
a year's income, must be paid back says Gabriela Romanow of ACCION
in one year. Grameen reports that 98 do, " notes Joseph E. Stiglitz of Stanford lnternational, a nonprofit organization
percent of its loans are repaid-as op University. that has granted microloans since 1973.
posed to the country ' s average rate of In addition, Stiglitz says, "peer moni Meanwhile traditional economists fo
30 to 40 percent. toring addresses the theory of moral cus on-and the World Bank tends to
Economist Muhammad Yunus found hazard." According to this theory, bor fund-natural resource exploitation and
ed Grameen Bank in 1976 after he de rowers will repay loans to banks only infrastructure development, such as
termined that lack of capital was the if they have something to lose that is road building.
primary obstacle to productive self-em more valuable than what they could Nor is encouragement of the informal
ployment among the poor. Officially es gain by keeping the cash. When the last sector a development strategy suited
tablished in 198 3 , the bank now has recession hit the U.S., for example, thou only to Third World countries . In the
some 980 branches and 1.2 million bor sands of home owners abandoned hous U.S., more than 100 organizations cur
rowers. Ninety-two percent of the clients es that were suddenly worth less than rently assist microenterprises by pro
are women who sought to start their the balance on their mortgages. When viding training, grants or loans. Congress
own businesses. Villages where the bank people' s fates are linked, however, they gave the Small Business Administration
has lent money have registered im can create responsible peer groups and $ 1 5 million this year for 3 5 microloan
provements in education, health care police one another. " You are tied to the demonstration proj ects. "Some banks
and women's status. group as a whole," Carter explains. are beginning to see this as a way to
Grameen's strategy for success is peer To some, the model of the Grameen broaden their normal operating proce
lending. To obtain a loan, an individual Bank would not seem to be one that dure," says Beverly Smith of the Associ
must band together with four neigh could be successfully transplanted to ation for Enterprise Opportunity.
bors. The group meets with a loan offi the U.S. "A lot of Americans would balk To proponents of Grameen, that bare
cer and then chooses one or two of the at it, " Stiglitz says . lndeed, some at ly begins to tap the possibilities. " There
five to be eligible for an initial loan. Be tempts at peer lending in the U.S. have is no reason we couldn't have a thou
fore another group member can receive failed, perhaps in part because the sand Grameens in this country," Von
a loan, the first borrowers must make neighborhoods are not as homoge Pischke says.
regular repayments. All loans must be neous as they are in Bangladesh. Never- -Marguerite Holloway and Paul Wallich


THE AMATEUR S C lENTl S T conducted by George A. Carlson
Sighting Cepheid Variables in making observations of variable stars

is the Astronomical Almanac. This refer
ence (availabl from the Superintendent
N
ot all stars shine as steadily as three. To correct for this uncertainty, of Documents, U.S. Government Print
the sun. A small percentage vis astronomers generally rely on observa ing Office, Washington, D.C., 20402)
ibly fluctuate in brightness. But tions of several Cepheids in proximity. lists the variable stars visible to the
far from being mere curiosities, vari For example, I discovered 29 Cepheids naked eye. The information includes
able stars offer much information about in the galaxy NGC 3 1 09 . I fit their ap the names of the stars, their type and
themselves and the universe as a whole. parent magnitudes at maximum light location and their period of variability.
Among the most useful are the so-called into the graph of the period-luminosity The almanac also lists a recent time of
type I Cepheids, because they are good relation [see bottom illustration on op maximum light, which can be used to
indicators of distance. This property posite pageJ. The fit yielded a distance predict future maximum brightness.
comes about because a definite relation Of 1.9 megaparsecs. Even this figure is Stellar brightness is expressed in
exists between a Cepheid's period of only approximate, since it is not cor terms of the magnitude scale. Each unit
variability and its luminosity: the long rected for absorption by the interven on the scale corresponds to a luminosi
er the period, the intrinsically bright ing interstellar matter. Accurate dis ty difference of 2.5 times. Fainter stars
er the star. Finding a Cepheid's period tance measurements usually demand have larger magnitude numbers; the
and measuring the apparent brightness large telescopes, filters and complicat brightest objects in the sky have nega
enable astronomers to deduce its dis ed techniques to extrapolate measure tive numbers. For instance, the sun
tance from the earth [see "The Expan ments from one celestial body to an shines at magnitude -26. The unaided
sion Rate and Size of the Universe," by other. As such, determining distances eye can detect objects up to a magni
Wendy L. Freedman, page 54J. is a task best left to the profeSSional. tude of about six.
Getting accurate distance figures is Yet the amateur is not left completely The times given in the almanac are
usually not straightforward. Because of out in the cold. You can readily deter in Julian days, which is a running dec
the range of magnitudes in the peri mine a Cepheid's brightness over time imal number related to the dates and
od-luminosity relation, distance calcu and display the information as a light times of events. Julian dates are much
lations can be off by a factor of two or curve. One of the most useful resources more convenient than ordinary calen
dar dates. To obtain the interval be
tween events, you simply subtract the
dates. Section B of the almanac lists the
equivalent calendar dates.
The general strategy for observing
Cepheid variables is to measure the
brightness of a Cepheid at many times
over many cycles. There are two ways
to collect the data on light variation.
The first is simply to use the unaided
eye and make informed estimates. The
second is to photograph the star and
determine the brightness by measuring
the size of the image.
In either case, begin by making the
first set of measurements close togeth
er over one or two cycles, so you can
get a rough idea of the period. Then
wait for a few cycles and take a second
set of measurements. But do not wait
too long: when the number of cycles
multiplied by the uncertainty in the pe
riod equals one period, you would be off
in the cycle count by one. Pause for sev
eral more cycles before taking a third
GEORGE A. CARLSON teaches astrono

my, phYSiCS, chemistry and piano (music
is his other passion) at Citrus College in
Glendora, Calif. He is also a visiting as
tronomer at the Carnegie Institution. He
DELTA CEPHEI is in the constellation Cepheus, near the Little Dipper. Compare its received his Ph.D. in physics from the
brightness over time with that of Beta and Epsilon Cephei. Astronomers use the University of California, Davis.
Greek alphabet to label stars in a constellation according to brightness.


set of observations. You can repeat this
process indefinitely. Knowing the num
ber of cycles between the observations,
you can "phase" together your observa w
tions to produce an accurate value for o
::::J
the period. I use a computer program to I
Z
perform the task; the box on the next CJ

page describes the algorithm. ::2
The procedure to observe Cepheids
with the naked eye is simple in princi
ple and is attributed to the German as
tronomer Friedrich W. A. Argelander.
You select ordinary (nonvariable) stars
to compare with the Cepheids. The ap
parent magnitudes of the comparison
stars should cover the full range of the o 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
DAYS
variable's brightness. The comparison
stars should be located in the sky as LIGHT CURVE for Delta Cephei shows that the star varies by approximately a mag
closely as possible to the variable, so nitude in brightness over a period of about five days.
that each comparison star and the vari
able are in the same field of view. Ideal
ly, the comparison stars should differ can provide a crude estimate of the pe tent from one roll of film to the next.
in steps of 0.3 to 0.5 in magnitude. I la riod. With a little practice and some luck Film records the light intensity of
bel each comparison star in an alpha with the weather, you should be able to stars as size: the brighter the star, the
betical order based on brightness, with refine your estimates. The almanac lists larger the image. Thus, you will need
"a" being the brightest. other Cepheids and suitable compari to correlate the diameter of a stellar
At the time of observation, decide son stars if Delta Cephei is not easily image with a star whose magnitude is
which two comparison stars have mag seen from your location. known (magnitudes are printed in the
nitudes that bracket those of the var A more accurate means to record almanac and other handbooks). In my
iable. Then try to estimate to the near Cepheid variability is through photog astronomy course, I use the open clus
est tenth the relative brightness of raphy. Because film can detect objects ter NGC 6940 to teach my students
the Cepheid in the bracketed interval. too faint for the naked eye, you can how to perform the task. I use a 12-
Thus, if you estimate that the magni conduct a photographic study of Ceph power comparator (essentially a loupe)
tude of a variable is 0.4 between those eids not even listed in the almanac. You to measure the images of the 15 stars
of comparison stars b and c, write b4c will need a camera mounted to your in the cluster on an enlarged print. The
as the magnitude (the Cepheid observ telescope and a clock-drive unit (a track comparator contains a reticle that has
er's shorthand). You can convert to the ing mechanism that follows the appar a linear scale with O.I-millimeter divi
actual value by interpolating between ent motion of a celestial body). sions (available from scientific-equip
the known magnitudes of b and c. For a variable such as Delta Cephei, ment supply companies). You should be
Of course, suitable comparison stars a typical exposure through a small able to estimate sizes to within a few
may not lie close enough to the vari telescope would be about 10 seconds. hundredths of a millimeter.
able. In that case, you would need to You should, however, take several pho A plot of the magnitudes of these
shift your line of sight back and forth tographs with different exposure times stars against the logarithm of the square
between the stars to estimate relative and select the best time. I recommend of the diameters yields a straight line
brightness. Visual memory is very short; doing your own developing so that [see illustration on next page]. Once cal
when you concentrate on the second you can keep the processing consis- ibrated, you can find the magnitude of
star, your eye has "forgotten" how
bright the first one looked. In addition,
w -9
the twinkling of stars makes it more 0
difficult to judge their brightness. Even ::::J
I-
so, with practice, your ability to esti Z -8
CJ
mate brightness can improve. In fact,
::2 -7
with only three levels of brightness, the ...J
period of a variable can be found with
::::J
reasonable accuracy. (f) -6
:>
Try the technique on Delta Cephei, w
I-
which has an apparent visual magnitude ::::J -5
...J
of 3 .48 at maximum and 4.37 at mini 0
(f)
mum. Locate Beta Cephei (magnitude (D -4

3.23) from a star chart and use it as ::2
comparison star a. Use Epsilon Cephei,
::::J
::2 -3
at a magnitude of 4.19, as comparison x

star b. Observe Delta Cephei once a ::2 -2
night for a week or two, and write down 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
LOGARITHM OF PERIOD (DAYS)
its time and brightness as compared
with a and b. If the brightness of Delta PERIOD-LUMINOSITY RELATION for type I Cepheids, shown here for visual wave
Cephei is in between those of a and b, lengths, helps astronomers deduce a Cepheid's distance. Each period has a range of
simply write a5b. These three values possible magnitudes, which arise because of inherent differences among Cepheids.


17 shoot everything on the same roll of
I II"': film, so that the images experience the
16
1 J
II"':
same developer concentration and pro
15 cessing time. Third, work from nega
:::l
!::: 14 ' 111"!:
.- ::.. tive prints; it is easier to measure dark

z ..1 images on a light background rather
13 than vice versa. (I make such prints
r.J.J
r'!:,;
from contact negatives of the original

12
II!.:
negatives.) Finally, correct for the fact
11 that you are looking along different op
... i
10 I tical paths through the atmosphere.
+0.6 +0.4 +0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 The most systematic method is to
LOGARITHM OF d2 (MILLIMETERS) convert your magnitudes to what they
would be if you were looking straight
CALIBRATION LINE for photographed stars in the open cluster NGC 6940 relates up. For visual wavelengths, the amount
the diameters of the images, d, to the apparent magnitudes. of correction is equal to about 0.14 (se
cant z - 1), where z is the angle between
the zenith and photographed field. Once
any star (including possible Cepheids) stars against stars whose magnitudes you have calibrated your photographs,
in the field of view. Just measure the are listed. This secondary calibration you can find the period by using the al
star's diameter and use the calibration needs to be done only once. You can gorithm in the box on this page.
line to convert. Each photograph will then use these secondary standards You can construct light curves by
have to be calibrated in this way. against which to measure the variable. plotting magnitude versus phase. Re
Indeed, it may be that the magni To ensure accuracy in secondary cali member to plot the smaller magnitudes
tudes of the stars you need for cali brations, you should take certain pre (brighter values) toward the top of the
bration are not listed in any handbook . cautions. First, use the same exposure ordinate. The conventional way to dis
In that case, you must calibrate those time for all the photographs. Second, play light curves is to show two com
plete cycles.
If you decide to pursue more ad
vanced kinds of observations, you can
obtain instructions and software for data
Finding the Period analysis from many sources. One of the
most useful is the American Association
I
use a program based on one range (0 to 1 cycle) into intervals of,
of Variable Star Observers (MVSO),
written by Hugo G. Marraco and say, a tenth and see how many data
which can supply finder charts for thou
Juan C. Muzzio of the National points fall in that tenth. For example,
sands of variable stars as well as their
University of La Plata in Argentina. you might have three data points
corresponding comparison stars. The
The essential features of the algo whose phase values fall in the inter
association can recommend projects
rithm follow. val 0.1 to 0.2. You simply calculate
suitable to each observer's geographic
The first step is simply to take a their standard deviation. Perform this
location, equipment, observing condi
guess; most type I Cepheids have task for each interval and then find
tions and schedule. Interested read
periods of a few days. Then calcu the average standard deviation for
ers can contact the MVSO at 21 Birch
late the phase for each data point all 10 intervals.
Street, Cambridge, MA 02138. Amateur
that is, determine where in the cycle Next you will need to increment
astronomy magazines also provide in
you observed the Cepheid at that the period and repeat the phase and
formation on Cepheids.
time. Otherwise, you can easily get scattering calculations. But be care
For a sample data set and a copy of
the wrong period, especially if you ful: if the increment is too large, you
the program that finds the period (writ
have made only a few observations. might skip over the correct period
ten in FORTRAN ), send a self-addressed,
To determine the phase, count the without noticing it. On the other
stamped business envelope to the Am
number of complete cycles, N, start hand, if the period increment is too
ateur Scientist, Sighting Cepheid Vari
ing at your earliest observation. small, it would take a very long time
ables, Scientific American, 415 Madison
Mathematically, N whole number to find the right value.
Avenue, New York, NY 10017-1111.
=
part of (t- to)/p, where to is the After covering the period range,
time of first observation (in Julian look at the values of the scatter
days); t is the time of a subsequent ing and locate the minimum stan
FURTHER READING
observation; and p is the trial period dard deviation. Select a small range
THE REALM OF THE NEBULAE. Edwin P.
you guessed. The fractional part left of period around this value and Hubble. Yale University Press, 1936 (re
over is the phase-that is, search for a more precise period us print 1982).
ing a smaller period increment. I THE NATURE OF VARIABLE STARS. Paul W.
usually select 0.01 day as my first Merrill. Macmillan Company, 1938.
increment and decrease it by a fac CEPHEIDS: THEORY AND OBSERVATIONS.
Edited by Barry F. Madore. Proceedings
where CPt is the phase at time t. tor of 10 for each iteration. You can
of the lAU Colloquium No. 82. Cam
Now that you have the phase for tell when you are finished because
bridge University Press, 1985.
each data point, calculate the scat the scattering parameter is the same THE ExTRAGALACTIC DISTANCE SCALE.
tering of the data-in other words, for several successive values of the Edited by Sidney van den Bergh and
the standard deviation of your data period. Select the central value as Christopher ]. Pritchet. Astronomical
points. Break up the total phase your best period. Society of the Pacific Conference Series,
VoL 4; 1988.


When Professor Jon Lien is
not teaching class, he's sav-
ing schools off the coast of
Newfoundland. Knife in hand,
he sets out to sea to rescue
whales trapped underwater
by fishing nets. On the next
Scientific American Frontiers
on PBS: join Professor Lien
as he looks a 60,OOO-pound
humpback in the eye so that
they both may live to tell
about it. You'll also see stories
about smart food, wheelchair
racers, howler monkeys and
tuberculosis. All fascinating.
All true. Not one fish story
in the bunch. Sponsored by
GTE Corporation.
SCIENTIFIC
AMERICAN
FRONTIERS
liji
YOU JUST CAN'T MAKE THIS STUFF UP.

BOOK REVIEWS by Philip Morrison
Three-Dimensional Words Besserat was a new postdoctoral fellow culiar empty "hollow tablet" bore a late
at the Radcliffe (now the Bunting) Insti cuneiform inscription that described
BEFORE WRITING, Volume I: FROM tute. She wanted to study the uses of once enclosed counters that listed so
COUNTING TO CUNEIFORM, by Denise clay in the Near East before pottery, bits many ewes, lambs and sheep. The count
Schmandt-Besserat. University of Texas of clay floors, hearth linings, bricks and in the textual list matched the number
Press, 1992 ($60). more. "Wherever 1 would go," in muse of "stones" reported to have been held
ums on four continents, these geometric in the hollow tablet when the excavators
H
undreds of clay tablets marked trinkets were always present. They were had opened it. But the counters them
in cuneiform were found in the the oldest clay objects to have been fire selves were neither saved nor described.
1930s during excavation of Lay hardened. The very earliest ones may A second hollow tablet was reported in
er ill of "the first and foremost Sumeri have been "baked in domestic ovens," 1966 by the author's teacher, Pierre
an City," Uruk (the Biblical Erech, in pre but the latest show perfectly controlled Arniet, at the Louvre. From Susa, it was
sent-day Iraq). The earliest were written and much hotter firing. Most archae much older, preliterate, and it still held
in the decades before 3000 B.C. Those ologists had ignored them; a few had its original contents, the very sort of
archaic texts are surprisingly mature, jumped to the unsupported conclusion geometric artifacts Schmandt-Besserat
with few pictographs and many abstract that they were amulets or game pieces. would later find in abundance lying
symbols, not much different from texts She came to call them tokens. A Ro loose and out of context on museum
of Sumer a millennium or more later. setta stone for the tokens had been shelves. "In 1970, two pieces of the puz
The sign for "sheep," for instance, was found by 1960, but not fully read. A pe- zle snapped together for me . . . 1 had not
a circled cross; for "metal," a crescent
with five lines. Sophisticated writing had
appeared suddenly, ready-made.
The priest-poets of Sumer had their
own explanations. In one myth, shining
Inanna, the divine sister of mortal Gil
gamesh, hero-founder of Uruk, received
from Father Enki, God of Wisdom, an
imprudently generous gift. "Swaying
with drink," he gave her the precious
me, the 100 elements of all civilization.
First on the list was the high priest
hood itself! After many indispensable
older arts, including lovemaking, song,
even treachery, there came eight mod
ern crafts, one among them the craft of
the scribe. Inanna, rejoicing, ferried the
me upriver to her holy shrine at Uruk,
where in time the mute clay would be
made to speak by well-trained scribes.
This new, scrupulous and exciting ar
chaeological account of how writing
came is given us by a brilliant scholar,
a woman who of course makes no di
vine claims at all. What shines here is
the human mind, spinning a tight web
of inference from abundant evidence.
Evidence comes out of 100-odd sites
disclosed by a century of the spade, ex
cavations mainly along the Jordan and
the three rivers that flow to the head of
the Persian Gulf. Not least interesting is
the fact that the material she draws on
is some 8,000 little hand-modeled pel
lets of fired clay, often rejected or ig
nored even during excavation, now be
come chief cornerstones of her power
ful demonstration. (Volume II, not seen
or reviewed, is a technical reference
catalogue that lists and locates the to
kens in their thousands.)
Twenty years ago Professor Schmandt- TOKENS from Uruk in southern Mesopotamia (present-day Iraq), 8000 to 3500 B.C


THIS SEASON
And we have the videotape to
prove it. Watch each episode of
WEILL POISON
Scientific American Frontiers
on PBS for stories you have to
see to believe. Meet the concert
violinist injected with poison
to relieve his muscle disorder.
Learn the secrets behind the
making of the silver screen's
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the Panamanian caterpillar
AND WATCH A
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ATERPILLAR
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T RN IN A all true. Sponsored by GTE
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SCIENI1F1C
AMERICAN
FRONTIERS
l'il*,
YOU JUST CAN'T MAKE THIS STUFF UP.

seen [the Arniet article] since I began extend the token code to an urbanized In Praise of Pauling
collecting tokens. I could not believe my society. The temple bureaucrats were no
eyes when I saw the small clay cones, longer content with the simple tributes THE CHEMICAL BOND: STRUCTURE AND
spheres, and tetrahedrons " in Arniet's of the farmer but drew their levies from DYNAMICS, edited by Ahmed Zewail.
illustrations. The use of that multitude a variety of urban craftsmen. Academic Press, 1992 ($49.95).
of tokens had been found. Quite another dimension lies within
C
Tokens were a common code. They this chronicle of the well-known rise of ertainly chemistry is structure:
are ideal symbols, save only for their dty-state, class and the division of labor. the double helix and the hexago
three-dimensional nature. They are dis It is the growing abstraction and com nal benzene ring have become lo
crete, recognizable, repeatable, durable, plexity of the code. Perhaps the first re gos for the entire sdence. But chemistry
cheap, yet open-ended enough to allow corded counts came in the upper Paleo unfolds in time as it dwells in space. Re
many new forms. They were a record lithic, simple tallies of time passed, say, actions, the change of chemical struc
keeping device at village scale, one that one mark on a bone for each day of the tures, are equally at the roots of the
"swept across the Near East on the lunar month. Later came tokens, every science. And there is a final necessity:
coattails of agriculture " for 5,000 years, token form a three-dimensional noun, those clever chemists themselves. This
remarkably free of any regional varia each commodity counted concretely by fine book introduces all three.
tions until cities began. At first there its set of identical tokens. Nature and Its authors are nine celebrated chem
were at most a dozen or two simple quantity were still fused. ists from North America and the Unit
forms. Then they entered a second, The new step is found on inscribed ed Kingdom. Six of them are Nobel
more complex phase, to dwindle once tablets of Sumer during the last centu laureates; one, Linus Pauling, is a rar
writing had come. ries before writing: abstract count. Num ity indeed, a Double Nobelist, once for
The first two hollow tablets reported ber was no longer embodied by a single chemiStry, once for peace. The attractive
have been followed by 115 more, most form class of tokens but stood in two volume grew from a splendid occasion,
later than 4000 B.C. Now these are rec dimensions as a set of marks on clay. the symposium in February of 1991
ognized as envelopes of clay. Nearly The tablets bore impressed numerals, at when Caltech celebrated Pauling's 90th
all the envelopes are covered with re first Simple tallies like the Roman nu birthday. Personal reminiscences, col
peated seal impressions, a signature meral m. Adjoining each such impressed orful diagrams and photographs and bi
sometimes several-authenticating the numeral lies an incised mark, often the ographies of the contributors welcome
security of the contents. Only a few have drawing of a complex token form, to the general scientific reader to nine rel
been opened to check the contents (x identify what was counted. Arithmetic atively informal chapters.
ray techniques have not yet given good had come, not merely a count of days or Linus Pauling opens by recalling his
results). The number of tokens within of ducks but pure number itself, that early interest in minerals at age 12,
is never very high; on the average there class of classes. when in wonder he collected the local
are about nine. These are no records of The accountants invented the first agates. At 18 he became an assistant in
large-scale trade but rather of villagers' numerals on clay around 3100 B.C., en structor in quantitative chemical anal
contributions to pooled grain or live coding the concepts of "oneness, two ysis at Oregon Agricultural College, to
stock surpluses, subject to some later ness, threeness." In the city stage called give one of the two seminars that year.
redistribution. Step by step, such com Uruk VI, it took one three-dimensional One man spoke on the frozen fish in
munities became "ranked societies, " in ovoid token to record one customary dustry; young Pauling told of the elec
which redistribution allows in the end jar of oil. A little later, in the overlying tron theory of the chemical bond from
for a tribute of offerings, fees and taxes. layer called Uruk IVa, it took two mark the recent papers of G. N. Lewis and
Next come well-marked envelopes. ings on the surface of a clay tablet. One Irving Langmuir that had caught him. A
For them, many tokens have been im impression recorded a customary unit little later he tried to deposit single crys
pressed into the outer clay, to signal to measure, the jarful, using the outline tals of iron in a magnetic field: "without
the scribes just what is in the authen form of the old ovoid token. A second success." But it was enough to spark ex
tic record sealed within. The match in single, strong mark conveyed the pure pression of an interest in crystallogra
significance between token types and numeral 1: one oil jar. By Uruk ill , it phy, and Professor Arthur Amos Noyes
farm products (rather than, say, days took three signs, one for the numeral 1, of Caltech proposed to the just-accepted
of labor) rests on the subsequent cunei one for the standard jarful and a new teaching fellow that he begin graduate
form symbols. These can often be traced symbol that denoted oil itself. With research there with x-ray diffraction.
back in form to impressions made on three signs, a flexible written language For a dozen years Pauling made and
clay tablets a few centuries before sty had arrived. analyzed Laue photographs and thought
lus-written cuneiform proper appears. Once individual citizens needed to be deeply about structures. "In 1934 the
Those early impressed signs match nice identified, the idea of names in rebus transition ...to modern x-ray crystallog
ly the old forms of the tokens and of was not far off. Given one mark or place raphy was begun by the ...Patterson dia
ten enough fit the epigrapher's judg ment convention, like the cartouche in gram." That boldly simplifying approxi
ment of the origin of the later, more Egyptian hieroglyphics, a string of sym mation to the location of atoms in lat
stylized cuneiform whose meaning is bols could stand no longer only for tices was just what so good a chemist
known from rich literary context. concept or commodity but Simply for could use. Pauling also mastered the old
After 4000 B.C., "industry gave a ma the sound connoted through the spok quantum theory, found some of its lim
jor boost to the token system." Hun en language: phonetics, that novelty, al itations, and made his way as a fresh
dreds of new types are found, largely in most the last decisive one, depended Ph.D. to a fellowship in Munich with
Uruk. Some of them are quite figurative, less on the social milieu than on inter Sommerfeld in the spring of 1926, just
tiny bowls, jars with handles, even little nal practice among specialist scribes. when Schrbdinger published the first
trussed ducks, all of them handmade Within a few centuries they had invent papers on the wave equation. The young
clay pellets, easy caricatures, often in ed the way we now share the myth of American returned a working quantum
cised with simple dots and stripes. (A Inanna and the sustained argument in chemist, whose steady flow of insights
few are even molded.) These changes this absorbing book. and approximations has become classic.


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Give the gift of good In 1939 Pauling published a famous
series of lectures on the chemical bond,
ical identifications within tens of fem
toseconds by use of ultrashort laser
health this holiday the deepest view we then had. Nobelist
Max F. Perutz read chemistry then in Vi
pulses, collisionless, polarized molecu
lar beams, and well-timed pulse manip
season...NordicTrack. enna. That meant he wrote down what ulation. Such studies show directly "the
the professor said, "or rather my girl ephemeral, but all-important, transition
....... T he gift of health is friend who knew shorthand did, and I
learnt it by heart." Pauling's book was
states in chemical reactions" and spa
tially resolve atomic interactions down
priceless. So are the benefits of
not at all like that. It included his opin to a tenth or less of atomic dimensions.
NordicTrack.
ion that the easily formed, rather weak In his own chapter, John C. Polanyi, the
There's nothing more valuable than a fit,
hydrogen bond, one proton lying be modern inventor of the transition state,
healthy body. That's why
tween two somewhat negative atoms, elaborates the subtle idea helpfully, and
there's no gift more valu
would be more significant for the mole another chapter outlines the complex
able than a
cules of life than "any other single struc multidimensional energy surfaces many
NordicTrack.
tural feature." Postwar, Pauling would reactions imply. (Here and in a few oth
NordicTrack
add that hemoglobin might be the mol er places the up-to-date material makes
works both your upper
ecule whose mapping could tease out demands most nonchemist readers will
and lower body
the full nature of protein structure, in not easily meet.)
simultaneously.
You burn more spite of the prodigious amount of work. Elder Pauling does not avoid the fray.
calories than you Perutz read it all and says, "I took this He cites new experiments and theory to
would on other admonition to heart, but it took me an support his view that the intermetallic
machines that only other 30 years to do the job." quasicrystals of the experts, with their
work your Francis Crick read the same book: unendingly frustrated repetitions, are in
lower body. 3D-day in home trial! "It is almost true to say that's the fact much simpler twinned structures
Models priced from $29995_$1,29995 only chemistry I ever learned." Pauling's that only simulate the fivefold symme
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insistence on the basic importance of try denied all true crystals. Acute, feiSty,
quantum chemistry was decisive for as astonishing as ever, hero-chemist Li
Crick. Physicist Max Delbriick, pioneer nus Pauling may-or may not-be right
of molecular biology, thought, like Niels once again, at a ripe 9l.
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When he saw the double helix of DNA, Big Bangs
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(l1992 l>iordicTrack. A CML Company All rights rt'Se1"\"(-d. kertoy." But Pauling expected that di WHY BUIWINGS FALL DOWN: How
rectness of fit. He had a long string of STRUCTIJRES FAIL, by Matthys Levy and
profound structural ideas: the alpha Mario Salvadori. Illustrations by Kevin
helix, pleated sheets, enzyme sites and Woest. W. W. Norton and Company,
coiled coils. But also he led an active 1992 ($24.95).
group who worked hard at real and
I
meaningful structures, the foundation n this insiders' book, we are let in
of molecular biology. on a lot of delicious trade talk that
The topic of another Pauling admir frames the specific explanations. Us
er, Alexander Rich, is the double helix in ing drawings in plenty, but not even one
three forms. First is the DNA we know, drop of algebra, the account brings you
then the same DNA without solvent wa to see why buildings stand up and "yes,
ter and, last, the left-handed, less stable, but once in a blue moon, [why] they fall
Z-DNA. Grooves in the three molecules down." These are two savvy old pros,
offer clues to how proteins recognize distinguished structural architects and
their instructive sites. prinCipals in a New York consulting
The chemists were slow to split sec- firm, noted for detective skill in investi
. onds. In 1947 the free radicals, transient gating buildings that failed under cer
In the World's Developing
intermediate steps in most reactions, tain newsworthy blue moons. Professor
Countries, we' re planting trees seemed beyond direct chemical study. Salvadori years ago established his tal
for less than... Microsecond chemistry was begun with ent and verve as an expositor in a mem
a flash by another author, Lord George orable book or two on why buildings
... A NICKEL EACH! Porter, in 1949. Start a gas reaction with stand up; this new volume has as much
a brief flash, and probe the changes insight and moves with the swift action
If you'd like to help, without delay by a second tailored flash, of the Johnstown Flood (not ignored)
please contact: analyzed by apt spectrometry. across dozens of celebrated examples.
Step by step, that technique has been Theirs is no new problem. Of the Sev
extended down nine orders of magni en Wonders of the Ancient World, what
EESg tude, most recently by editor Zewail, with wars and earthquakes and vandals
tllFUTURE
11306 ESTONA DRIVE. P.O. BOX 1786
SILVER SPRING, MARYLAND 20915-1786
the Linus Pauling Professor of Chemi
cal Physics, at work in Pauling's old x
ray lab at Caltech. A photograph of his
and neglect, six have fallen. Only the
Great Pyramid still stands. One early
pyramid did in fact slough off all its two
tamed beams zigzagging around a big ton limestone masonry casing blocks; its
1 (800) 643-0001 floating optical table is included. The foundation design explains the failure,
ingenious apparatus can record chem- not repeated. Poor King Kong of course


did not overstress the Empire State
Building-his tragedy was only in special
effects-but that tall, redundant steel
frame literally shook off the real impact
of a fog-lost bomber in 1945. Head-on
collision at speed just above the 79th
floorline killed the crew and 10 people
in the building, mostly by burning gaso
line. (The feisty Little Flower came up
behind the fire fighters and was seen
shaking his mayoral fist "and muttering:
'I told them not to fly over the city.' ")
The massive tower shook mildly un
der the jolt-the lO-ton bomber brought
in only half a percent of the momentum
of the design wind load-and after one
double sway, witnesses recalled, the mo
tions settled down. Masonry-clad tow
ers are well damped by friction be
tween the steel elements and the heavy
walls, but lighter modern towers vi
brate much more easily. The beautiful
and now truly safe Hancock Tower,
whose mirrored sunsets so vivify the
Boston skyline, in 1973 began a per
ilous window-shedding motion in re
sponse to local windstorms. A cross
fire of litigation, all against all, ended
in a legal agreement of "nondisclosure
in perpetuity," but the fraternity of
builders, tight-lipped to outsiders, is a
"first-rate grapevine to its members."
The tale leaked here is not all new,
but it is particularly well told. Everything
went a little wrong. One major task was
to stabilize the unusually shaped tower
against its twisting response to wind.
The strong glass windows cracked as Get Relief
the frame swayed; more than 10,000
of them were replaced with subtly less
vulnerable ones. More steel alone would
Back & Neck Pain
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Mobilization- Restoration of movement occurs and promotes
to become mere heat within big shock

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'------ .. ------------- ---------------------------------------------------"


E S SAY by Michael Schulhof
Why Business Needs Scientists uates accept theory as gospel. The sci
ence graduates accept theory as the
starting point for experimentation.
T
wenty years ago I was a physi Science also encouraged my intellec An equally dangerous trend in the
cist working on neutron-scatter tual curiosity. Of course, that was some graduate schools of business is their
ing experiments at Brookhaven thing that attracted me to physics in potential to restrict creativity. And the
National Laboratory. Now, as the vice the first place. But working in the lab at greater the reputation of the business
chairman of Sony USA and president of Brookhaven taught me how stimulating school, the greater the risk that its grad
Sony Software, I represent Sony in both it was to make intellectual curiosity the uates will rely on management theory
the electronics and the entertainment center of your professional life. My re instead of personal creativity. There is a
business. I spend my days discussing sponsibilities have obviously changed. time for doing things the Wharton way
and overseeing projects that range from But intellectual curiosity is very much a or the Harvard way. But there is also a
new developments in high definition to part of what keeps me going in the time for doing things your way.
the cutting edge of popular music. business world. In science, you accept To be truly successful in business,
My experience has convinced me that intellectual curiosity as a given. I wish you have to be a creative risk-taker. I
a background in pure science is an ide it were more common in business. have spent about $7 billion of Sony's
al preparation for business. I will take I would also like to see business peo money to acquire companies such as
that a step further and say that Amer ple develop some of the tenacity that is Columbia Pictures and CBS Records.
ican business would be a lot better common in science. People in business These were strategic acquisitions that
off if it had more scientists and fewer tend to be impatient. The scientists I supported our long-term vision for
M.B.A.'s running its corporations. worked with were anxious to see results. Sony. You have to have your own vi
Why do I think the neutron detec But they realized that you had to build sion of the future. And you need the
tor prepared me for life at Sony? As a the foundation before you could put on confidence to invest in that vision. It is
physicist, I was doing work I consid the roof. By example, they taught me the not much different from the approach
ered important and working with peo importance of mastering the fundamen to scientific research. The people I ad
ple I admired. But as I looked around tals of a field before you could do mean mired most in science had the creativi
the lab, I asked myself whether this ingful new work. Shortly after Sony ac ty to develop long-term visions of the
was what I wanted to be doing 20 years quired Columbia Pictures, I began to future as well as the courage to stick
into the future. I thought I might like to read the scripts for films we had under with that vision unless research proved
try business, but I was not absolutely production. That didn't endear me to them wrong.
sure. When I shared my uncertainty with some of the operating people. One of In the years ahead, business people
my thesis adviser, the distinguished re them challenged me about why J wanted will be asked to solve complex prob
searcher Robert Nathans, he gave me the scripts. He as much as told me that lems with very high stakes, not just for
some advice I will never forget. "Don't they were not going to let me take over their corporations but for society as a
worry about it, Mickey," he said. "You're the creative decisions. But I told him he whole. Some of those problems will in
a physicist. Physicists don't do anything was missing the point. I was not inter volve decisions about technology, about
they really don't want to do. If you get ested in telling the creative experts how the environment, about the economy
into business and find you don't like it, to make films, but I was intensely inter and the marketplace, even about gov
t
you'll get out." ested in understanding the process. ernment. Scientists understand the pro
Obviously, I liked it. I stayed. But I cess of critical thinking. They know how
stayed as a physicist. No matter what arning as much as you can about to analyze problems by concentrating
it says in my job description, I am the details is a lesson that is actu on the important elements and filtering
still a scientist. And I have approached ally discouraged in many business out the irrelevant. They understand
business problems the same way I ap schools. They promote the misleading that worthwhile results require a long
proached scientific problems. The les idea of the generic manager-the con lived effort. They are willing to admit
sons I learned as a scientist were excel summate professional whose education there are things they do not understand
lent instruction for business. has prepared him or her to step into and then take the time to find out what
Some of those lessons are as basic as any kind of business and run it. it is they don't know.
a strong work ethic. The business school The myth of the plug-in executive cre Business needs that kind of vision
yuppies of the 1980s glamorized the ated a generation of migratory manag and that kind of intellectual courage.
idea of working long hours. But that ers in American business. Most of them Business could get that kind of thinking
trend was in fashion in labs long be do not have the time or the inclination by taking some of its surplus M.BA.'s
fore anyone ever heard of Michael Mil to learn anything in-depth about the and sending them back to school for
ken. I can well remember sitting up business they are responsible for. In Ph.D.'s in science. Fascinating, but un
until 3 A.M. baby-sitting our precious stead they bring their business school likely. Instead I think business has the
high-flux beam reactor through an ex theories to each assignment. And quite responsibility to recruit more scientists.
periment. The hours didn't matter. It often they do not stay around long
was the result that counted. When you enough even to evaluate whether or not
have a meaningful challenge, personal the theories are valid. That is a big dif MICHAEL SCHULHOF is the vice-chair
time means very little. That is a lesson I ference between business graduates and man of Sony USA and president of Sony
have carried over into corporate life. science graduates. The business grad- Software.


IyC 1992-05

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SCIENTIFIC

AMERICAN November 1992 Volume 267 Number 5

46 Health Care Reform

54 The Expansion Rate and Size of the Universe

The holy grail of cosmology is an accurate determination of the Hubble constant,

62 The Risks of Software

Visualizing Biological Molecules

The Big Bang of Animal Evolution

1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

94 linguistic Origins of Native Americans

100 Astronomy in the Age of Columbus

106 TRENDS IN MICROMECHANICS

Researchers are borrowing chip-making technology to produce an array of mo

Science and the Citizen 10 Letters

1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

ART: Joan Starwood, Art Director; Edward Bell,

CHAIRMAN EMERITUS: Gerard Piel

8 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1992

1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

10 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1992

1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

and it's not eVe

1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

! voted for c ge,

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1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

"An unfinished obelisk in the quar

"In the opening of the telephone line

14 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1992

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1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

16 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1 992

1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

We don't make a lot of the products you buy.

1992 BASF Corporation.

1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

18 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1 992

1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

Bringing Science to the Bottom Line

20 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1 992

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22 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1 992

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SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1992 23

1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

... therapeutic meaning. "Is this really suc

NUVEEN iments point out that, according to the

24 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1992

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26 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1992

1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

Publisher's Price: $1 7.50 Publisher's Price: $1 7.95 and an application.

1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

1992 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC

Who Were the Indo-Europeans?

28 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1992