Introducing probability in the 7th grade

1. Lesson Title: Finding a Fraction of the Rainbow

2. Mathematics Instructional Task: Students will access prior knowledge by simplifying

fractions to understand ratios and probability. Then they will explore an online spinner with 4

different colored sections to make a prediction about how many times the pointer will land on

each color if spun 200 times. They will spin 25 times individually and represent their results as

fractions then input their results into a Google Form. We will then come back together as a class

to compare the compiled results and discuss overall trends. We will expand their understanding

to determine what would happen if we had a spinner that had 6 options.

Task Analysis: We chose Doing Mathematics Tasks because we will require students to

explore and understand the nature of the mathematical concepts of probability before defining it.

By tapping into prior knowledge of fractions before having students predict what will happen

with the spinners, we require the students think critically about what they have observed in the

past about how there should be an approximately equal chance of getting any color. Students are

also self-monitoring their cognitive process because they will be constantly referring back to

their prediction to either support it or change it. According to Van de Walle; Small & Lin;

Moschkovich, Data Analysis (Chapter 21): The purpose of probability is to answer statistics-

related questions. When performing a probability experiment, the results are dataa sample of

the theoretically infinite experiments that could be done, (p. 454). When we review the result of

the whole class we are analyzing the data and use that to name the concept that has been used as

probability.

3. Lesson Learning Goals: This lesson will address ratios, proportional relationships and

probability. Students will understand probability of a fair system as a fraction and relate it back
 to their prior knowledge of proportions. They will then use Google Sheets to analyze the data

and have a visual of the probability. Then generalize to a six-color spinner. Our objective is that

students will develop a probability model by observing frequencies and experimental data.

4. Description of Lesson Flow: Students will start by accessing prior knowledge of fractions and

demonstrate their technique at the board. They will then use technology to visit a spinner website

and explore to make a prediction about how often each color will result. The students will then

spin 25 times each and enter their data into Google Forms to compile the data into a visual

representation. Lastly, we will have the class discuss the results in relation to their prediction.

This sets up the discussion of experimental compared to theoretical probability for a future

lesson.

5. Student Success: This lesson builds upon prior knowledge of fractions which would have been a

previous lesson, reviewed within the last few days. The warm-up gives the students freedom to

use any method of fraction reduction that they are comfortable with. This humanizes the students

by individualizing their technique. We then have students produce their work at the board. The

main part of the lesson is done on a computer with a visual representation of fractions in the form

of a digital spinner. Then we will go over the data as a class, which humanizes the students

because they contribute what they understand and discuss collaboratively.

6. Essential Questions: How is probability related to the number of options that we have? This

will direct the students to pay attention to the relationship between their data and the possible

results for each spin. It will also help them discover the answer to their exit slip. Why should we

collect data? This generalizes the idea of usefulness of data that will be seen frequently in this

topic and throughout the rest of their schooling.

7. Lesson Assessment Strategy: We will be assessing the students understanding of the task

throughout the activity by listening to their conversations and watching their expressions. There

will also be an exit slip to check for understanding: What do the probabilities of all the colors

have to sum to for any spinner? Create a spinner and label the probabilities of each section.

8. Content Standards: The standards that are addressed fall under Investigate chance processes

and develop, use, and evaluate probability models. This includes standard 7.SP.6: Approximate

the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and

observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given

the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would

be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times. It also includes standard

7.SP.7B: Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in

data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate probability that a

spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the

outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?

9. Materials/Tools: Students will need to have access to a computer in order to access the spinner

and Google Form at the following websites: https://illuminations.nctm.org/adjustablespinner and

[website removed: create a google form with a short answer question for each color on the

spinner].