Trump Russia ies [+ AddtomyFT
Mueller charges pitch US towards
constitutional crisis
‘Trump is an expert at diversion so expect fireworks in coming days,
writes Edward Luce
66lnstant Insight
vit
= Fass & | soveromer
YESTERDAY by award ce
Is this the beginning of the end for Donald Trump? Only Robert Muelle, the special
counsel, isin any position to answer that, and perhaps not even then. But his target is,
clear.
‘The decision to indict Paul Manafort, Mr Trump's former campaign manager, for
money laundering, tax evasion, and ten other criminal counts, is dramatic enough.
Never before has a presidential campaign manager been charged with laundering
millions while working for a foreign agent — nowhere close.
‘That Mr Mueller swiftly followed up with the disclosure that George Papadopoulos, a
former Trump campaign adviser, had confessed to havin
ia cemented the message. Mr Mueller could have published the
Papadopolous charge sheet weeks ago. He did so within two hours of releasing the
Manafort indictment.
lied to the FBI over his
contacts with‘Three things are clear. First, Mr Mueller aims to prove that Mr Trump's campaign
colluded with Russia. We cannot know whether he will succeed. But it is clear that he
is shaking every tree and pursuing every lead available.
Papadopolous has clearly “flipped” and is co-operating with his investigation. Mr
Manafort, and his business associate, Richard Gates, are now under pressure to
follow suit. The multiple charges against them could result in many years bebind
bars. They will be highly incentivised to strike a plea deal with Mr Mueller to slim.
down their charge sheets,
Others in Mr Mueller’s sights include Michael Flynn, Mr'Trump's first national
security adviser, who resigned shortly after he took the job over having failed to
disclose his campaign contacts with the Russian government.
Further up the chain, Mr Mueller’s targets could include Donald Trump Jr, the
president's eldest son, and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, both of whom joined Mr
‘Manafort for a meeting with a Russian government-linked lawyer during the
campaign.
‘The more Mr Mueller squeezes, the more indictments are likely to follow. As the most
seasoned investigator in the US, it is safe to say Mr Mueller knows what he is doing
‘When and how he moves will be carefully thonght out.
Second, Mr Trump is an expert at diversion. Expect dramatic fireworks in the coming
hours and days. Over the weekend, Mr Trump sent a flurry of tweets about Hillary
Clinton's alleged collusion with a Russian-owned uranium company while she was
secretary of state. The story has been relentlessly pursued by Fox News, Breitbart and
other pro-Trump outlets.
Republican legislators are threatening to set up congressional inquiries into Mrs,
Clinton’s role in approving the sale of a controlling stake in Uranium One, a
Canadian-owned company that mines roughly a fifth of US uranium extraction. That
story is likely to intensify. Mr Trump urged nameless entities on Twitter on Sunday to
“DO SOMETHING” about Mrs Clinton’s “crimes’. Rither way, the “lock her up”
‘mantra is back in the headlines and is directly related to Mr Trump's sense of
vulnerability.
‘Meanwhile, Mr‘Trump's 11-day trip to Asia, which is his most strategically-important
since becoming president, is likely to be overshadowed, if not consumed, by the fire
‘ack in Washington. He leaves on Friday. Should we expect a new round of rhetorical
salvos on North Korea?‘Third — and most critically — the judgment that matters most is that of the
Republican party. Mr Trump has made it clear he would like to fire Mr Mueller. Most
people would see that as obstruction of justice, which is an impeachable offence. No
court can prevent Mr Trump from firing Mr Mueller. Mr Trump can only be
impeached by Congress, which is Republican controlled. Nor can any court stop Mr
‘Trump from pardoning people whom Mr Mueller indicts. Only Republicans can hold
Mr Trump to account.
So far very few elected Republicans have said anything about the Manafort
indictment. Nor have they drawn a red line against the firing of Mr Mueller.
Opinion polls suggest Republican voters
coo remain strongly behind Mr Trump, which is
the number that matters most to Republican
legislators. Unless that changes, Mr Trump
may feel that he can get away with sacking Mr
‘Mueller. At that point America would be
Te plunged into a constitutional erisis. I would
now put the chances of that happening at
more than 50-50.
Money and Power in Trump's
America
ace vEERLY
edward.luce@ft.com