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Cost and Man-Hour Estimation of the Production

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Conference Paper October 2012

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CostandManHourEstimationoftheProductionof
MerchantShipatDesignStage
MohammadShakilAhmmed1,Md.MashudKarim2,MohiUddinAhmed2,Md.Shohidur
Rahman2
1
SchoolofMechanicalandManufacturingEngineering,UniversityofNewSouthWales,Sydney,NSW,
Australia
2
DepartmentsofNavalArchitectureandMarineEngineering,BangladeshUniversityofEngineeringand
Technology,Dhaka1000,Bangladesh

2
BayTechShipSolutionZone,Dhaka,Bangladesh

2
DhakaDockyardandEngineeringWorks,Dhaka,Bangladesh

Email:mmkarim@name.buet.ac.bd

ABSTRACT

Todayscompetitiveinternationalmarketdemandsverycompetitiveprice,andtimelydeliveryoftheorder.Cost
reductionisoneofthebasicandeffectivecriteriatobeat,andholdthemarketkeepingthequalityofstandard
uncompromised. This paper concerns with the cost and man hour estimation at the design stage of the ship
production.Productionofshipisaverycomplicatedmanufacturingprocesswhichencompassesmanyactivities
tobuildamerchantship.Perfectcombinationoftheseactivitieswillnotonlyreducemanhourbutalsocutdown
thecostofproduction.Thecostandmanhourispredictedaccuratelyinthework,andafterthatthepredicted
resultsiscomparedwiththerealshipbuilddata.Despitewiththelimitedinformationoftheshipatthedesign
stage,predictionofthecostandmanhourwillnotbesoaccurateasitrequires,butitwillprovideasignificant
parameterwhichwillhelptheshipyard,andowneroftheshiptogetatadesignlevel.

Keywords:cost,production,costestimationrelationship,shipworkbreakdownstructure,manhour

NOMENCLATURE
CER CostEstimationRelationship CB Blockcoefficient
SWBS ShipWorkBreakdownStructure L Length
QFD QualityFunctionalDevelopment d draft
BHP BrakeHorsePower B Beam
Wst SteelWeight D Depth

1. INTRODUCTION

Constructionoftheblocksofshipisnotidenticalorsimilartoeachother.Soconstructionprocessaswellastime
willnotbesame.Tomakeablockofshiptherearesomanyactivityinvolves.Eachblockwillnotbeerectedwith
same material or plate thickness. Consequently weight of the blocks will not be same, even if, they are being
identical. There are so many steps in making a block. Production time estimation is one of the most basic and
primetaskinshipbuildingprocess.Themanhourquotationofproductsisthebasicdataforrationalproduction
planning,costaccounting,performanceevaluation,andvitalinachievinghighproductivity.Theassemblyman
hour quotation accounts for about 30% to 50% of the total of shipbuilding manhour quotation. Manhour
estimation was simply calculated as a function of weight. The purpose of this paper is to measure the time of
productiondependingontheprimaryfactorofshipalongwiththeshipyardfacilities.

2. BACKGROUND
Theabilitytoestimateshipconstructioncostsisnecessaryforthecommercialsuccessofashipyardtoohighan
estimatewillplacetheshipyardoutofthecompetitiverange,andtoolowanestimatewillresultinafinancialloss
andpossiblebankruptcy.Inpractice,anapproximatecostestimateisdevelopedduringinitialdiscussionswitha
potential customer. This estimate is refined as the discussions progress and the customers requirements are
definedingreaterdetail.Therefinedrequirementsresultinhigherlevelsoftechnicaldetail(e.g.,conceptdesign,
preliminarydesign,contractdesign,andaspecificationofincreaseddetail),whichenableincreasedaccuracyof
thecostestimate.Thisprocessculminatesinacostestimateuponwhichtheshipyardcanbaseafixedpricebid.
Developingandrefiningacostestimateisacomplexandtimeconsumingprocess.Obstaclestosuccessinclude
faultytechnicalinformation(e.g.,obsolete,incomplete,inconsistent),lackofcommunicationamongdepartments
(e.g.,rivalries,lackofpeertopeercommunicationchannels,secrecy),lackofaclearlydefinedprocess(e.g.,ill
definedlinesofauthority,nofreezedatesondesignversions,differentdataformats),andproblemswithanalytical
tools (e.g., incompatible software, varying levels of detail, lack of features, too complex, not user friendly, not
capable of being tailored to the needs of the shipyard or to specific projects). Overcoming these obstacles and
producing viable cost estimates requires knowledge and skills of management, vendors and, most importantly,
numerousshipyarddepartments,includingengineering,production,planning,estimating,andmarketing.

3. SCOPEOFESTIMATION
Topredictthecostofshipproductiongenerallyisataughttaskinarenaofshipbuilding.Scopeanddepthofa
givenestimationcantailortomeettheneedsoftheuser.Somanyattributesareinvolvedincostestimation,but,
generalscopesofcostestimationforanewconstructionareasfollowing:
Buildingcosts
Laborandmaterialcostsfordesign/engineering,productionandtesting
Lifecyclecosts
Constructioncostsplusmaintenance,operation,support,andmodernization
Totalownershipcosts(applicabletonavalshipsorcertainlargecommercialfleets)
Construction,lifecyclecostsplusinfrastructurecostsfortraining,andotherindirectcosts.

Despitethisworkpresentscostsystemfornewconstructionthesesortsofapproachcanbeappliedtomeasurethe
costsforothermajorworki.e.,repairingwork,overhauls,modification,andmodernization.

4. METHODS
Methods to predict cost for a new construction differ from the formal system to informal which is described
below:
Historical costing engineers, naval architect create formulas, tables, and charts based on years of
experience,industrytrends,andvendordata.Typically,estimatorssecureinformationclosely,thusmaking
its accuracy difficult to confirm. The historical method can predict acceptable results in cases where the
shipyardconstructsasingleorafewshiptypesandsizes.Thisapproachisnotsodependableforshiptypes
orsizesbeyondthosenormallyconstructedattheyard,orascostsbecomeoutdated.
Parametric method systems and subsystems costs are characterized in a spreadsheet or cost estimation
programasaproportionofoverallmetricssuchaslength,volume,displacementandpropulsionpower.The
proportions are estimated through comparisons with similar ships. As with the black book approach, if
correlationlevelsarehigh,thentheparametricapproachyieldsgoodpredictionsotherwise,theestimates
maynotbesufficientlyaccurateformanytechnicalandbusinessdecisions.
StandardshipapproachSomeshipyardsofferstandardshipdesignsforwhichcostcharacteristicsarewell
known. This enables the yards to very quickly and confidently develop detailed bids for prospective
customers, and is an excellent solution if the designs match the customers requirements. However, even
withtheflexibilityformakinglimitedchangestothedesign,manycustomersprefertopurchaseashipthat
ismorecloselyalignedtotheirbusinessneeds.
 Direct analysis approach As the design matures, costs may be estimated based on drawings, bills of
materials,historicalvendorcosts,andexistingquotes.Thisapproachisonlypracticalafterthedesignhas
reachedalevelofsignificanttechnicalmaturity.
Shipyardsmayusecombinationsoftheaboveapproaches.Forexample,theparametricapproachmaybeusedfor
structure, but the engineering approach may be used for ownerspecified engine and auxiliary equipment. Cost
estimates may be carried out by hand, spreadsheet, or on a computer program, and analysis results may be
presentedatvariouslevelsofdetail.

5. SEQUENTIALSTEPSOFESTIMATION
The remainder part of the paper presents a practical approach for ship construction cost estimating, and is
organizedasfollows:

Costestimatingapproachrequirements
Costestimatingapproachdescription
Parametricapproachofcostestimation
Casestudyusingthecostestimatingapproach

5.1Costestimatingapproachrequirements

Thecostestimatingapproachpresentedinthispapercomplieswiththefollowingrequirements[1]:
Threetiered hierarchy of cost estimates to reflect varying levels of detail available to the cost estimator
duringthedesignprocess.
Each tier is independent of the others, permitting the best information to be used at all times, and not
requiringthattheestimateadheretothelowestcommondenominatorofinformation.
Material and labor elements are included (some shipyards may desire labor hours instead of labor cost
becauseofconfidentialityconcerns)
Confidence levels are presented to reflect the perceived accuracy of the engineering data and the Cost
EstimatingRelationships(CER).

5.1.1Hierarchical

The cost estimating approach is divided into three stage in order to reflect the three design phases (concept,
preliminary, contract) commonly encountered in ship construction, Fig.1. At times, data may be available at
different levels, and thus be placed in different tiers (see the following section, Independence among tiers).
However,thenormisfordatatobeofafairlyconsistentlevelofdetailamongthevariouspartsoftheship(e.g.,
structure,propulsion,electricplant)duringagivendesignphase.Thus,thecorrespondingtierispopulatedwith
technicalandcostdataduringeachofthethreedesignphases,asdescribedinthefollowingparagraphs.

Fig.1:Hierarchyofcostestimatingapproach

The first level is Concept Design and is the least detailed. Typically this tier is used at the start of the cost
estimatingprocesswhenonlylimitedinformationisavailabletotheshipyard.Thiscorrespondstoelementsofa1
digitShipWorkBreakdownStructure(SWBS),andisbasedonaboutdataelementsrelevanttothewholeship
(e.g.,lengthoverall,displacement,propulsionpower).ThesecondlevelisPreliminaryDesign.Thiscorresponds
toelementsofaSWBSandisbasedondataelementsrelevanttoshipsystems(e.g.,structuralsystem,propulsion
system,heatingandventilationsystem).ThethirdlevelisContractDesign,andisthemostdetailed.Thecostbid
isbasedontheinformationinthistier.ThistiercorrespondstoelementsofaSWBS,andisbasedonhundredsor
thousands of data elements relevant to subsystems (e.g., main engine cooling, main engine fuel pumping, and
mainenginestarting).

5.1.2Independenceamongtiers

Independenceamongthetiersallowsthecostestimatortodeveloptheestimatebasedontechnicaldataofvarying
degrees of detail. For example, hull structure data may be available at the SWBS level (e.g., 117 Transverse
Framing),butpropulsionplantdatamaybeavailableonlyatthelevel(e.g.,220EngineeringControlSystems).
Thecostestimatingapproachwillacceptdata,andproducereportsforeachoftheseSWBSlevels.Thus,itisnot
necessarytowaituntil3digitpropulsiondataisavailablebeforepopulatingstructuresatthe3digitlevelofdetail.
Independenceamongtiersenablesthecostestimatetobebasedonthemostdetailed(andpresumablythemost
accurate)dataavailable.

5.1.3Materialandlaborincluded

Shipyardscommonlydividecostsintomaterialandlabor(materialincludesvendorandsubcontractorcosts,and
laborisonlythatofshipyardemployees).Inordertobestservetheshipyardneeds,thecostestimatingapproach
followsthisconventionbyproducingestimatesformaterialandlabor.MaterialEstimatesareprovidedascosts,
butlaborestimatesareprovidedaslaborhours(tomaintainconfidentialityofshipyardlaborrates).Estimatesare
providedforeachSWBSelementforwhichtechnicaldataisavailable.

5.1.4Confidencelevels

Shipyardmanagementneedstoknowthelevelofaccuracyofthecostestimateinordertoproperlydevelopthe
bid. Put another way, management needs to know the level of uncertainty of the estimate. Uncertainty may be
quantified either through the application of margin or the provision of confidence levels. Both are commonly
subjective, though probabilistic calculations may be used. The cost estimating approach uses confidence levels
insteadofmargins.Thisisbecauseconfidencelevelsprovidetheuser(e.g.,management)withquantifiedinsight
into the accuracy of the estimate. With this knowledge in hand, if certain parts of the estimate have low
confidence levels, then attention may be focused there to increase confidence levels, and thus increase the
accuracy of the estimate. Confidence levels are assigned to the engineering quantities (e.g., reflecting a 95%
confidencethattheweightofstructureiscorrectasreported)andalsotothecostestimatingrelationships(e.g.,
reflecting 95% confidence in the estimated cost per weight factor). The two confidence levels are multiplied to
arrive at an overall confidence level (e.g., 95% x 95% = 90.25%). Confidence levels are presented by SWBS
element.

5.2CostEstimatingApproachDescription

Shipyardscommonlydevelopshipdesignsintheengineeringdepartment,anddevelopshipcostestimatesinthe
cost estimating department. The cost estimating approach is designed to support this division of labor, and was
developedthroughinputfromengineers,costengineers,andcostestimators.Keytothedevelopmentsuccessto
datewereworkshopsatwhichshipyardtechnicalandcostpersonnelsuggestedenhancementstoearlyversionsof
thecostestimatingapproach.

5.2.1Descriptionofthearchitecture

The cost estimating software is divided into two linked elements, one focused on engineering and the other
focused on cost. Each element is comprised of modules which carry out discrete operations. A functional flow
chartofthesoftwareisshowninFig.2.Theengineeringelementcomprisesthefollowingfivemodules:

(1)BaselineshipengineeringquantitiesThismoduleisusedinthecasewherethedesignship(i.e.,theshipfor
whichcostisbeingestimated)isanextrapolationofabaselineship(i.e.,ashipforwhichcostsareknown).This
moduleispopulatedwithdatawhichdescribesbothshipsintermsofselectedphysicalquantities(e.g.,tonesof
structuralsteel).
(2)BaselineanddesignshipprincipalparticularsAgain,thiscomponentisusedifthereisabaselineship.The
moduleisarepositoryforgeneral(nonSWBS)datasuchaslengthbetweenperpendiculars.
(3)ParametricengineeringquantitiesParametriccalculationsarecarriedoutinthismoduletoestimatedesign
shipengineeringquantities,basedonaconstanttimestheratioofcorrespondingdesignandbaselineshipprincipal
particulars(e.g.,[constant]x[designshiplengthoverall]/[baselineshiplengthoverall])
(4)AssignedengineeringquantitiesAsnavalarchitectsandmarineengineersdevelopthedesign,increasingly
accurate engineering quantities become available for use in the cost estimating process. These assigned
quantities are entered into this module. Normally, these engineering quantities are more accurate (higher
confidencelevel)thantheparametricengineeringquantitiesofthepreviousmodule.
(5) Engineering quantities source selection Here the user selects which engineering quantities (parametric or
assigned) will be used in the cost estimating process. Normally, at the start of the design process, parametric
engineeringquantitiesareselected,andasthedesignprogresses,assignedengineeringquantitiesareselected.

Thecostelementcomprisesthefollowingfourmodules:
ParametriccostAswithparametricengineeringquantities,costisestimatedforthedesignshipbasedon
proportionalitywithregardtothebaselineship.
Assigned costs As with assigned engineering quantities, assigned costs are directly entered into the
module.Thesecostsarebasedondatasuchasinitialestimatesfromvendorsandfrompurchaseorders.
Cost source selection Again, as with the parametric engineering quantities source selection, the user
selectsbetweentheparametricandtheassignedvalues.
CostreportsThismoduleproducesthreereports:1digit,2digit,and3digitSWBScostestimates,with
overall(engineeringandcost)confidencelevelsprovidedforeachcostentry.

Fig.2.Flowchartofcostestimationprocess

5.2.2Datacollection
Thecostestimatingsoftwareishostedbyasmartproductmodel,towhichvariousothercomponentsbesidescost
estimating may be added (e.g., structures, stability, hull form) [2]. Engineering quantities, parametric constants,
confidencelevels,andcostdataareenteredandreviewedindialogueboxesandonExcelworksheetsallofwhich
maybetailoredtotheneedsofspecificusers.Althoughthecostestimatingsoftwaremayoperateinastandalone
mode,thesmartproductmodelhostoffersseveraladvantages:
Integrationofcostwithengineeringmodelstheengineeringbasisofthecostestimates(e.g.,Weight,volume,
andenginepower)canbeautomaticallylinkedtoreceiveinputfromtheEngineeringcomponents.
Enhanced communication within the design team engineers, cost estimators, production Planners and
managementviewaconsistentsetoftechnicalandcostdata.
Configurationcontrolpermissioncanbeassignedtoensurethatonlyauthorizedusersenterandrevisedata
intheirrespectivetaskareas.
Onestophighlevelmodelingandestimatingtheengineeringandcostinformationdevelopedbythesmart
product model is at a level at which sufficient detail is available to develop data on which meaningful
technical and cost decisions can be based, yet the quantity of data is small enough to permit quick side
studies,andtoreflectthepresentstateofanongoingdesign.
Singledatabaseforengineeringandcostdatadatacanbestoredinoneplaceforallaspectsofthedesign
and cross referenced, presented in various hierarchies, and formatted for reports. A single database helps
ensuredataconsistency.
Major costs are: Material, outfit, Equipment, Accommodation, Machinery, Deck Machinery, Electrical and
electronics,Laborcost.

5.3CaseStudyUsingtheCostEstimatingApproach

Acasestudywillillustratethecostestimatingapproachwithanoceangoingmultipurposevesselastheexample
ship.TheshipissimilartotheDoubleEaglecargodesignofStellaShippingCorporationGermanywiththeships
principalcharacteristicspresentedinTable1[3].DesignoftheshipwasfeaturedinStellaProject.Slightlyrevised
versionsoftheDoubleEagleSWBSandweightbreakdownareusedinthecasestudy.

Table1:Shipprinciplecharacteristics

Particulars Dimension Unit

Lengthoverall
88.40 Meter
Maximumbeam 15.00 Meter
Depth(atside) 7.50 Meter
Designdraft 6.0 Meter
Deadweight 4100 DWT
Enginepower,BHP 2640 KW
Speed 13.50 Knot

5.3.1Costandlaborhour
Allcostsandhourinformationandcertainweightinformationarenotional,andarenotbasedonactualDouble
Eagledata.Withregardtocost,muchdependsuponwhere(countryandshipyard)theshipisconstructed.Actual
costsarenotasrelevanttothiscasestudyasshowingthecostestimatingapproach.Thus,anapproximatecostis
consideredsufficient.Ingeneral,halfoftheconstructioncostisassumedtobeabsorbedbyshipyardlabor,andthe
assumedlaborrateis$1/hour,resultingintotallaborhoursof1,100,000.Subdivisionofcostandhoursisbased
onweight.Thevariousactivitiesandactionswhicharenecessaryforblockconstruction:
a) Adjustingtools
b) ClearingWorkArea
c) Collecting/MovingEquipment
d) CuttingwithaGasTorch
e) Fitting
f) Grinding
g) Idle
h) MovingorPositioningPartstobewelded
i) TackWelding
j) Waiting
k) Walkinginto/outofview
Notalltheseactivitiesareapplicabletoalltheobservationsmadeatthevariousworkstations.

5.3.2EmpiricalCERs

ThepurposeofEmpiricalCERs(ECERs)istoprovideaparametricapproachforestimatingconstructioncostsat
the various stages of design. ECERs will permit new ship cost predictions long before detailed information
becomes available for directly translating actual production parameters into cost. The Parametric method is
structured to use a statistical analysis that carefully considers factors like ship type, complexity, and basic ship
characteristics such as displacement, speed, individual system weights, hull form, and associated ship costs, so
new ship cost predictions can be correlated empirically to those parameters. The concept of the Parametric
Module is to develop forms of equations by which the user could either tailor the equations or automatically
update their coefficients with actual return costs that have been imported into the database. ECERs were
developedusingalimiteddatabasecommercialvesselswhichincludedshipsofalltypesfrom36ftworkboatsto
largetankers.Itwasfoundthatforthesameshiptype,manyoftheproposedparametersaredependentoneach
other. For example, steel weight is dependent on length, beam, depth, draft, and speed. The dependencies of
variousshipcharacteristicsorparametersweredeterminedbylimitingtherequirednumberofvariableswithinthe
equationsnext,thedatapointswereplottedtofindthebestformoftheequations.Foreachstageofconstruction
(concept, preliminary, and contract) linear and nonlinear regressions were performed to derive ECERs for a
variety of parameter combinations and forms of equations. The equations with least error were selected as the
recommended ECERs. At the concept level, the price of the total ship is a function of displacement (DISPL),
speed,andacomplexityfactor(CF):PRICE=CFxAxDISPLbxSPEEDc.ValuesforthecoefficientAand
exponents b and c would be determined by applying this equation form in a regression analysis of a users
databaseofreturncosts.BecausethecostdataavailabletotheIPTwasforvariousshiptypes,itwasnecessaryto
useaComplexityFactortonormalizethedataandachievebetterequations.TheuseofComplexityFactorsisnot
uniquetotheCost.ComplexityFactorsareusedinothermodelssuchastheCostEstimatingModel,PRICEH.
TheComplexityFactortheIPTusedisderivedfromaSizeFactorandShipTypeFactorSizeFactoris32.47x
DISPL0.3792.TheOECDcoefficientsforCompensatedGrossTonswereusedforboththeshiptypeandtheship
sizefactors.Table2depictsthelistsshiptypefactorsforshipsrangingfromcrudeoiltankers.

Table2:Shiptypefactors

ShipType Typefactor
CrudeOilTanker 0.8
ProductTanker 1.13
ChemicalTanker 1.25
DoubleHullTanker 0.90
BulkCarrier 0.86
Oil/Bulk/OreCarrier 0.95
Containership 0.96
RollOn/RollOff 0.86
CarCarrier 0.61
Ferry 1.25
PassengerShip 3.0
FishingBoat 2.20
Tug 0.80

Laborhourforhull,machinery,outfittingandother,andelectricalcanbecalculatedbyusingthefollowing
formulas[4]

Laborhourforhull
(1)
1) CFx177xWeighthull0.862
(2)
2) 800xWeighthull

Laborhourformachinery
(3)
1) CFx365xWeightmachinery0.704
 (4)
2) 15000+20000xWeightmachinery

Laborhourforoutfittingandother
(5)
1) 310xWeightoutfiting0.949
(6)
2) 5000+10000xWeighthoutfittingl

Laborhourforelectrical
(7)
1) 382xWeightelectricall1.025
(8)
2) 25000xWeighthelectricall

5.3.2Costestimatingprocess

Cost data and calculations usually applied to the engineering quantities, and to the costs associated with the
baselineshipSWBSelements.Theapproachtoderivedesignshipestimatedengineeringmaterialquantitiesare
depictsinFig.4,andapproachtoderivedesignshipestimatedmaterialcostsandlaborcostsaregiveninFig.5.

Fig.4:Approachtoderivedesignshipestimatedengineeringmaterialquantities

Fig.5:Approachtoderivedesignshipestimatedmaterialcostsandlaborhours

Manyformulaehavebeensuggestedbyresearchersforestimatingthefinishedsteelweight[5]
10 5 ((5.11X L 3.33X B ) (2.56 X L 2X B D 2))
W st 1
Cb 3
( ) D
= .8 X tones (9)
Manyformulaehavebeensuggestedbyresearchersforestimatingthefinishedmachineryweight.
Thisweightgenerallyincludeseverythinginthehullweightexceptthenetsteelweight.Manyweightshaveto
obtain separately. In certain cases the finished weight can be obtained from the subcontractors. They could be
supplying equipment such as winches, windlass, lifeboats, fridge machinery, galley equipment, hold and twin
deck insulation, navigation instruments, etc. Most of the Wood and Outfit (W&O) weight will be generally
situatedwithintheaccommodationspaces.Therearetwopopularmethodsforobtainingthefinal(W&O)weight
foranewship.

ThismethodrequirescalculatingacoefficientBforabasicshipandthenusingthesamecoefficientforthenew
similardesign.

B
W & OforbasicshipX 100
( L B X B B)
= (10)
L DX B D
BX
W&Ofornewdesign= 100 (11)

Thecoefficient B dependsuponthestandardofaccommodation,numberofcrew,refrigeratedstores,etc.
ForaGeneralCargoshiporOilTankerthevalueofwillbeoftheorderof2030.Itisveryimportanttotakecare
withtheselectionofthebasicshipwhencomparingherwiththenewdesign.Theymustbesimilarintype,and
close in size, speed and power. Table 3 shows the predicted values of the calculation. And Table 4 shows the
comparisonbetweenthetheoreticalvalueandtheactualvalueoftheshipthatbuilt.

Thetotalmachineryweightincludes:mainengine,auxiliarymachinery,propeller,propellershaft,enginespares.

W=shipsdisplacementintones,
V=shipsservicespeedinknot
P=powerinkW,
=PBforbrakepowerinDieselmachinery,
=PSforshaftpowerinSteamTurbinemachinery.

ForDieselmachinery, W M = 0.75 xP B 300 tones[5] (12)

Table3:Theoreticalvaluesofthecalculation

ManHour DirectCost
Item Weight(tones) ManHour(MH) Item Cost
Hull 411 42165 Hull 328800
Machinery 185 19153 Machinery 3715000
Outfitting 382 78732 Outfitting 3425000
Electrical 26 10775 Electrical 650000
Total 323225MH 8118800

Table4:Comparisonbetweencalculatedandactualvalues

Predicted ActualCost
Cost
Items Cost Cost Percentageoferror (CostPCostA)2
Hull 328800 315648 4.17%(+ve) 131522
Machinery 3715000 3446864 7.78%(+ve) 2681362
Outfitting 3425000 3619540 5.37%(ve) 1945402
Electrical 650000 618318 5.12%(+ve) 316822

(CostPCostA)2
StandardoferrorSe= n2 = 235496USD
View publication stats

6. CONCLUSION:

Forsuccessivedesignofaship,itisrequiredtoperformallthetasksaccuratelyfromdesignstagetoproduction.
Thecostandmanhourestimationforshipdesignandproductionisavitalissue.Iftheprobablecostoftheshipis
found at the beginning stage of the ship design and production, the forecasting will be realistic and so on will
beneficial for clinching the competitive market. The present work deals with the cost estimation at the design
stage,sothattheforecastingwillbedoneattheverybeginning.Thecalculatedresultshowsgoodagreementwith
therealshipbuilddata.Therearesomedifferencesbetweenthepredictedresultsandtherealdata,thisisbecause
thetheoreticalformuladoesntconsiderthedemographicconditionswheretheshipbuilds.Therearesomeother
issueswhichhavenotbeentakenintoaccount,asweatherconditions,economicalconditionsoftheglobalmarket,
costoftherawmaterials,laboravailability,andtheseissuesareconcernedwithparticularareaswheretheship
willbebuilt.Despiteoftheseissues,thepresentmethodwillbebeneficialfortheshipyardforcostandlabor
hourestimatingatthedesignstages,andsotowintheraceatthecompetitiveshipbuildingmarket.

7. REFERENCES:

(1) Ross, J.M., Forging a RealTime LinkBetween Initial Ship Design and Estimated Costs, 11th
InternationalConferenceonComputerApplicationsinShipbuilding,Malmo,Sweden,pp.7588,2002.
(2) Ross, J.M., Mcnatt, T.R., Hazen, G., The Project 21 Smart Product ModelA New Paradigm for Ship
Design,CostEstimationandProductionPlanning,ShipProductionSymposium,TheSocietyofNaval
ArchitectsandMarineEngineers,Ypsilanti,Michigan,USA,Paper6,2001
(3) 4100DWTMultipurposeVessel,Builtin2009,WesternMarineShipyardLtd.,Bangladesh,2009
(4) Ennis,K.J.,Dougherty,J.J,Lamb,T.,Greenwell,C.R.,Zimmermann,R.,ProductOrientedDesignand
ConstructionCostModel,ShipProductionSymposium,SNAME,1997
(5) Barras,C.B.,ShipDesignandPerformanceforMasterandMates(Book)