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THE SOCIAL AND STRUCTURAL DIMENSIONS OF A SYNTACTIC
CHANGE
ANTHONYJ. NARO
Pontificia Universidade Catolica and Universidade Federal,
Rio de Janeiro
This paperproposesa model of syntacticchangebased on a quantitativestudy of the
rule of subject/verbagreementin spoken BrazilianPortuguese.Among speakersof the
lower socio-economiclevels, this rule is currentlyundergoinga process of elimination
from the grammar.The model postulatesthat syntactic change starts at a point where
surface differentiationbetween the old and new systems is zero (or nearly so); later it
spreadsthroughoutthe languagein inverse proportionto the degree of saliency of the
surfacedifferencesbetweenthese systemsin each particularenvironment.Thus 'natural'
clusters of linguisticfeaturesarise only gradually.
1. INTRODUCTION. Since syntactic change produces a finite number of dis-
crete variants, it cannot be a process of gradual replacement of minutely dif-
fering forms, operating unobserved over time.' In general, there is no surface
continuum of realizations to be dealt with; rather, a certain (usually small)
number of non-overlapping distinguishable variants can be identified and cat-
egorized. This circumstance, which makes syntactic change an ideal site for
observation of linguistic change-in-progress, has not been utilized in diachronic
research. Even in recent times, historical syntax has been heavily inclined to
a change-over-the-centuries methodology which makes it impossible to study
the social and structural dimensions that shape the initiation and diffusion of
a change; this has led to a distorted view of the process, in which only the
endpoints are seen. Furthermore, since the usual endpoints are relatively sta-
'The centralnotion of syntactic diffusionalong the axis of saliency, upon which the structural
portion of this paper is based, was sketched in Naro & Lemle 1976. In that work, only three
speakers,with a total of less than ten hours of recordedspeech, were studied. Later, much more
extensive tests, involving twenty speakers and 140 hours of speech, were made as part of the
'CompetenciasBasicas do Portugues'researchproject(sponsoredjointly by the FundacaoMo-
vimento Brasileirode Alfabetizafco and the Ford Foundationoffice in Brazil, administeredby
MiriamLemle of the Museu Nacional, UniversidadeFederaldo Rio de Janeiro).The results of
these tests appearin the final report of the project (Lemle & Naro 1977:17-50).In the present
paper, I use the same data base as in earlierversions, with only minorcorrectionsand additions;
but I reportsomewhatdifferentresults because of the inclusionhere of social variablesand some
changes in the morphologicalcategorization.I am gratefulto Lemle for allowingme to use the
data gatheredduringher project, as well as for many insightfuldiscussions duringthe course of
the work; without her keen intuitionsinto the workingsof Portuguese,this researchwould not
have been possible. I am likewise gratefulto GregoryGuy, to whom I owe my initiationinto the
use of statisticaltechniquesin linguistics,as well as many hours of fruitfulcollaboration;and to
Shana Poplack and David Sankoff for comments and suggestions that have profoundly affected
the final form of this paper. Michael Stanton of the Departamento de Informatica of PUC/RJ has
patiently helped me learn how to communicatewith a computerin a mannerto which it will
respond more or less appropriately, even if not always willingly and quickly. All calculations
reportedhere were carriedout on the IBM/370-165installedat the Rio Datacentro,to which PUC/
RJ generously provided me free and unlimitedaccess. Differences between this and previous
versions reflect what I consider to be improvements or corrections.
63
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64 LANGUAGE, VOLUME 57, NUMBER 1 (1981)
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DIMENSIONSOF A SYNTACTICCHANGE 65
I. PRESENT
1. 1st conjugation sg.: falA 'speaks' ['a] ['a]
(regular) pl.: falAM'speak' ['fi, 'u, ,]
2. 2nd & 3rd conj. sg.: partE'leaves' ['i] [li]
(regular) pl.: partEM'leave' [ I] ['ey]
3. 2nd & 3rd conj. sg.: faz 'does' 0 0
(-r or -z) pl.: fazEM 'do' [-i,:i]
4. Monosyllables sg.: dA 'gives' [a] [a]
p.: dAo 'give' [aw] [aw]
II. PRETERIT IMPERFECT
All verbs sg.: falavA 'spoke' ['a] ['a]
pl.: falavAM 'spoke' ['u, 'u, 'a] [Iaw]
III. FUTURE
All verbs sg.: falarA 'will speak' [-a] [-a]
pl.: falarAo 'will speak' [-aw] [-aw]
IV. PRETERIT PERFECT
1. 1st conjugation sg.: falou 'spoke' [-6] [-6, -6w]
(regular) pl.: falARAM'spoke' [-rfi, -aru] [-drAW]
[-araw]
2. 2nd conjugation sg.: aprendEu'learned' [-ew] [-dw]
(regular) pl.: aprendERAM'learned' [-eru, -dru] [-draw]
3. 3rd conjugation sg.: partiu 'left' [-iw] [-fw]
(regular) pi.: partIRAM 'left' [-frfi,-fru] [-fraw]
4. stress-shifting sg.: trouxE'brought' [li] [-ri]
(irregular) pl.: trOUXERAM 'brought' [-rfi, -dru]
5. radicalchanging sg.: fez 'did' 0 0
(irregular) pi.: fiZERAM 'did' [-erufi,-eru] [-eraw]
TABLE I
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66 LANGUAGE, VOLUME57, NUMBER 1 (1981)
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DIMENSIONS OF A SYNTACTIC CHANGE 67
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68 LANGUAGE, VOLUME 57, NUMBER 1 (1981)
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DIMENSIONS OF A SYNTACTIC CHANGE 69
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70 LANGUAGE, VOLUME 57, NUMBER 1 (1981)
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DIMENSIONSOF A SYNTACTICCHANGE 71
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72 LANGUAGE, VOLUME 57, NUMBER 1 (1981)
is:
p(t) (O) p(l) p(n)
(1 - p(t)) (1 - p(O)) (1 - p(l)) (I - p(n))
The symbols here have the same interpretationas in 2, and continue to be
called probabilities-although the appropriatenessof this terminologyis ques-
tionable, since the logistic model is motivatedmerely by the fact that it works,
ratherthan by any abstractconsiderationsof probabilitytheory. Representing
the entire right-handside of 3 by p(R) and solving for p(t), we find:
(4) p(t) = p(R) / (1 + p(R))
From this it is easy to see that, as p(R) becomes large, p(t) tends toward the
numberone; and as p(R) becomes small, p(t) tends toward zero. Since p(R),
in turn, is a product of terms of the form
(5) p(i) I (1 - p(i)),
p(R) will increase for each such term largerthan 1, and decrease for terms less
than 1. These terms themselves will be greaterthan 1 if p(i) is greaterthan 0.5,
and less than 1 if p(i) is less than 0.5. If p(i) is exactly 0.5, the corresponding
termbecomes 1, and makes no contributionto the product.Thus, in the logistic
model, the 'probabilities'can be classified as favoring, inhibiting,or indiffer-
ent-depending on whether they are greater than, less than, or equal to 0.5.
Furthermore,accordingto this model, the combinedeffect of favoringfactors
(with values of 0.9 and 0.8, say, as in the example given above) is more highly
favoring than that of each of the individualfactors (the result is 0.97 in our
example).
In the mathematicalsense, the data and the model in 3 are not sufficient to
determine uniquely the values of the p(i)'s; only a relationshipamong these
probabilitiesis determined.In order to calculate a unique numericalvalue for
each p(i), we must add one mathematicalconstraintper factor group. Although
this constraint is, from the mathematicalviewpoint, strictly arbitrary,it can
be chosen in such a way as to facilitateinterpretationof the resultantnumbers.
In any case, since all logistic results obey the same constraint,it will ordinarily
not be necessary to consider its consequences. The constraintcurrentlyused
is to requirethat the average of the terms in 5 for each factor group be zero.
For groups containingonly two factors, this has the consequence of requiring
that the logistic probabilitiessum to 1.
In order to estimate the values of the p(i)'s satisfying 3 (and the constraint
just mentioned)on the basis of the availabledata, a statisticaltechniqueknown
as maximumlikelihoodestimationis employed. For any given model, the like-
lihood statistic itself is a measure of how likely it is that a particularset of
data has been generated by the model. The estimationprocedure maximizes
this likelihood for the set of data under study, in accord with the model being
used.
Within the limits of a particularmodel and data set, the significanceof the
results providedfor any factor or factor groupby the estimationprocedurecan
be measured by eliminatingthe p(i)'s associated with such factors or groups,
and verifying whether this has a significant adverse effect on the resultant
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DIMENSIONSOF A SYNTACTICCHANGE 73
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74 LANGUAGE, VOLUME 57, NUMBER 1 (1981)
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DIMENSIONSOF A SYNTACTICCHANGE 75
8
Since these forms occur quite infrequentlyin real speech, it was not possibleto maintainthem
as separateclasses. The verb 'to come', which in the prescriptivestandardhas the infinitivevir
and the preteritperfect veiolvieram'came (sg./pl.), is currentlyundergoinga complex series of
changes involvingthe introductionof nasalizationthroughoutthe paradigm,possibly in order to
avoid confusionwith ver 'to see' (see Camara[1965]1975:89),which has similaror identicalforms
in its paradigm(e.g. vimos 'we saw' or 'we come'; veem 'they see' and vem 'they come', where
the differenceis merelyorthographic).This process has resultedin the creationof a new infinitive
vim [vi] for 'to come' (all other infinitivesend in -r, but the most frequentspoken realizationof
this segmentis zero), which happensto coincide with lsg. preteritperfectvim 'I came'. In the 3rd
person preteritperfect, the new form is vinheram,replacingstandardvieram'they came'; but 3
sg. veio 'he came' is apparentlyremainingstable. Because of this situationof changein the plural,
youngerspeakers of both groups overwhelminglypreferto use the stable veio, tendingto avoid
both vieramand vinheram.This producesa decrease in the frequencyof agreementfor 'to come'
in the preteritperfect, independentlyof the generalrule under study here; hence data from this
verb have been removed from Class 2e for the younger speakers, by means of data-exclusion
commandsof SWAMINC4and SPSS.
9 The final vowels of Classes Ib, Ic, 2b, 2c, and 2e may be oral.
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76 LANGUAGE, VOLUME 57, NUMBER 1 (1981)
Inspection of the figures reported in this table shows that increasing rate
operationof the agreementrule indeed correlateswith increasingoppositional
saliency. In all three models, the largest jump in rate of agreement occurs
between levels 1 (stressed) and 2 (unstressed) of the oppositional hierarchy.
Thisjump amountsto about 30%in termsof eitherraw or adjustedfrequencies,
and about 0.3 in terms of probabilities.WithinLevel 1, the least agreementis
shown by Class la (nasalization,i.e. minordifferentiation),followed by Class
lb (change in vowel quality, i.e. greaterdifferentiation)and Class lc (addition
of a segment, i.e. complete differentiation).Level 2, similarly,shows its lowest
rate of agreementin Class 2a (nasalization,i.e. minordifferentiation),followed
by Class 2b (addition of a syllable, i.e. greater differentiation)and Class 2c
(desinences with no shared segment, i.e. complete differentiation).
Recall that, in additionto Class 2c, which shows total differentiationof the
stressed desinences, we set up for purposes of verificationa special Class 2d,
consisting of the single opposition elsao. As regardsoppositionalsaliency, this
item also shows total differentiationof forms, and these forms are always
stressed. The opposition of Class 2c does, however, possess the constant un-
stressed verbal root in both items (fal- in our example), while a constant root
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DIMENSIONS OF A SYNTACTIC CHANGE 77
of this sort is absent in Class 2d. Table 3 indicates that this circumstancehas
little or no effect, since all three models show nearlyidenticalresults for these
two classes. Furthermore,the log likelihood test in the logistic model shows
that the small difference found in that model is not significanteven at the .5
level. It can thus be concluded that Class 2d is really not differentin behavior
from Class 2c, and that these two classes should be amalgamated.
Class 2e contains the stress-shiftingpreterits-which, parallelto Class 2c,
show no shared segment in the desinences that mark the singular/pluralop-
position. Here, however, the singularshows root stress; and the singularde-
sinence is either zero, as infez 'did (sg.)', or unstressed [i], as in disse 'said
(sg.)' The pluraldesinence is stressed -eram (disseram'said [pl.]',fizeram 'did
[pl.]'), identical to Class 2b. Thus the opposition in this class is [i, -0/-eru];
and in some verbs the root vowel also changes. Despite these nuances, the
fundamentalsimilarityto Class 2c remains clear: there is complete differen-
tiation of the desinences, and they are stressed in the plural.
Table 3 shows slightlymore agreementfor Class 2e than Class 2c in all three
models; but in the logistic model, the log likelihoodtest reveals that the minute
distinction found there (0.78 vs. 0.80) is not valid even at the .7 level. These
negative results are, of course, partiallycaused by the fact that Class 2e has
the fewest tokens of all the classes. Until more data are forthcomingon this
class than those found in the approximately115 hours of speech considered
here, it must be concluded temporarilythat Class 2e is very similarin behavior
to Class 2c, and that the nuances distinguishingthem are not important.From
this point on, Class 2c will be understoodto includeboth 2d and 2e. The results
of this amalgamationare shown in Table 4.
CLASS EXAMPLE FREQUENCY PROB ADJ DEV
la comelcomem 110/755 = 14.6% 0.11 -33.7%
b falalfalam 763/2540 = 30.0% 0.26 -18.2%
c fazlfazem 99/273 = 36.3% 0.35 -11.3%
2a ddldao 604/927 = 65.2% 0.68 + 17.9%
b comeulcomeram 266/365 = 72.9% 0.78 +25.5%
c faloulfalaram 1160/1450 = 80.0% 0.85 +33.6%
(Beta = 0.74.)
TABLE4.
Comparisonof Tables 3-4, which refer to the same data under slightly dif-
fering analyses, reveals several points of interest. The raw frequenciesfor all
classes up to 2c do not, of course, change at all; but the new result for 2c
represents an average of the former 2c, 2d, and 2e weighted by number of
tokens. In the logistic model, however, all the new probabilitiesare numerically
differentfrom those of Table 3, althoughthe relationshipsamong various cat-
egories have not changed. The reason for this is the mathematicalconstraint
imposed upon the average of the terms in Formula5 for each group. Since the
numberof factors in the group has changed from eight to six, the averaging
gives different results. We need not, however, concern ourselves with this
matter,since all thatis of interestis the constantrelationshipamongcategories.
In the adjusted deviations, the new results bear the same sort of relationship
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78 LANGUAGE, VOLUME 57, NUMBER 1 (1981)
to the old as in the case of the raw frequencies. It is important to note, however,
that the partial beta, which reflects the proportion of total variation accounted
for by the factor group, remains constant at 0.74. Thus, confirming the log
likelihood test in the logistic model, the more complex analysis gives no im-
provement in the results of the additive model.
The final morphological categorization of Table 4 was subjected to two fur-
ther types of test. First, using the log likelihood technique, it was confirmed
that the results for these six categories are indeed statistically different at the
.005 level; thus no additional amalgamations would be valid. Then several at-
tempts to improve the analysis were made by splitting some of the six categories
into subcategories. For example, in Class 2b the opposition foilforam, the ir-
regular preterit of both ser 'to be' and ir 'to go', was separated from regular
2nd-3rd conjugation preterits. Forfoilforam a frequency of 111/156, or 71.2%,
was found; the regular preterits' rate of agreement was 155/209, or 74.2%. In
the logistic model, this gave results of 0.72 vs. 0.76, a distinction which the log
likelihood test shows to be insignificant even at the .25 level. Based on this
sort of statistical testing, I conclude that the six-leveled hierarchy realistically
portrays the true situation.
5.1. A FEATURE ANALYSIS OF SALIENCY.In the informal discussion of the
concept of oppositional saliency, it was argued that two main forces were si-
multaneously operating. The first of these was stress; and it was assumed, quite
naturally, that stressed oppositions are more salient than unstressed opposi-
tions. This distinction was used to set up two levels, on each of which the
secondary criterion of material differentiation was used. Thus one might argue
that the hierarchy of morphological categories is a derivative notion, and that
saliency would be more insightfully analysed in terms of its component features.
To carry out such an analysis, two new factor groups were postulated-
stress and differentiation:
(7) STRESS:
Class a. unstressed (Morphological Classes la-c)
b. stressed (Morphological Classes 2a-c)
MATERIAL DIFFERENTIATION:
Class a. minor differentiation (Morphological Classes la, 2a)
b. greater differentiation (Morphological Classes lb, 2b)
c. complete differentiation (Morphological Classes Ic, 2c)
Through appropriate recoding commands of SWAMINC4 and SPSS, the factor
group representing the morphological hierarchy on the original data cards, was
replaced by the appropriate values of these two factor groups. For example,
the symbol representing Morphological Class lb was rewritten as symbols rep-
resenting Stress Class a and Material Differentiation Class b. The results are
shown in Table 5.
For the Stress feature group, all three models agree and show extremely
sharp polarization, indicating that this is a very important determinant of agree-
ment. In the Material Differentiation constraint group, however, we see for the
first time a case where the raw frequencies do not agree with the probabilities
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DIMENSIONS OF A SYNTACTIC CHANGE 79
of the logistic model, or with the adjusted deviations of the additive model.
Both the latter are in accord with our expectations:increasingmaterialdiffer-
entiation correlates with increasingrate of agreement.Furthermore,although
some of the numericaldifferences involved are relatively small, the two ap-
propriatelog likelihood tests show that the results are statisticallydistinct at
the .005 level.
The reasons for the deceptive resultsin the rawfrequencycolumnare varied.
In the first place, DifferentiationClass a is a more or less evenly-weighted
average of MorphologicalClasses la and 2a; but DifferentiationClass b is
heavily weighted toward MorphologicalClass lb, and away from 2b, because
the former happens to have far more tokens. Just the opposite occurs with
DifferentiationClass c, which is heavily weighted in favor of Morphological
Class 2c, and away from Ic. Thus DifferentiationClass b is weighted in favor
of the lower rate of agreementclass, while DifferentiationClass c is weighted
toward the higher rate of agreementclass. If all three classes had been evenly
weighted, the results for DifferentiationClasses a, b, and c would have been
39.9%, 51.5%, and 58.2%, respectively. It is just this sort of infelicitous dis-
tributionof data that was referredto in the first paragraphof ?4.2, above, as
invalidatingraw frequencies as a generally valid measure of effect. What is
importantis the joint effect of the stress and differentiationfeatures:for each
class of stress, each class of differentiationhas a paralleleffect, namely that
of increasing(or decreasing)rate of agreement.The additiveandlogistic models
are capable of reflectingthis fact, despite the skewed distributionof data.
5.2. RESULTSFORPOSITIONAL
CATEGORY.
The ordering of the positional cat-
egory was guided by the same central notion of saliency used in the morpho-
logical category. Here, however, the relevant type of saliency is not opposi-
tional, but depends instead upon the relative position of the subject-which
is the element that determinesthe appropriateform of the verb, and the verb
itself.
The positional relationshipis most salient when the determiningsubject im-
mediately precedes the determinedverb. This situation, in which the deter-
miner/determinedrelationshipis totally transparent,is labeled as Positional
Class la, defining 'immediately'as allowingup to five syllables of intervening
material.This cut-off point, while essentially arbitrary,has the result of allow-
ing a series of two or three short adverbs (such as jd 'already', ndo 'not', or
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80 LANGUAGE, VOLUME 57, NUMBER 1 (1981)
Within sentential limits (i.e. Case 1), all three models show parallelresults
that accord perfectly with the principle of saliency: Class la, consisting of
immediatelypreposedsubjects, shows the highestrateof agreement-followed
by Class lb, where the subject is still realized and preposed, but separated
from the verb by some distance. The lowest rate of agreementof the hierarchy
is induced by the postverbal subject of Class Ic.
Case 2 uniformly shows results of approximatelythe same magnitudeas
Class la. I see no way in which this fact can be explained in terms of the
'0 For an explicit model along these lines, see Kimball 1973.
" It would, in fact, be
tempting simply to exclude sentences without realized surface subjects
from the data base, if this did not involve the loss of over 40% of the data. Nonetheless, the results
obtained in this way do not differ markedly from those reported in the text.
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DIMENSIONS OF A SYNTACTIC CHANGE 81
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82 LANGUAGE, VOLUME 57, NUMBER 1 (1981)
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DIMENSIONS OF A SYNTACTIC CHANGE 83
at all in the data, creating empty cells. However, since both the logistic and
the additivemodels are capableof dealingwith skewed distributionsand empty
cells, these statistical difficulties can be overcome.
A second, and more fundamental,problemis that the proposed social var-
iables includeno measureof the speaker'spossible relationshipsto other socio-
economic levels in the surroundingcommunity. As already mentioned, the
speakers under study are all illiterateand from the same (low) socio-economic
level. They are, further,all orientedtowardimprovingtheir lot, a fact attested
by their presence in adult literacy courses. Without exception, they hope to
'better' their lives throughthe course. One even dreamsof becominga doctor,
while anotherhopes eventuallyto own a stable of race horses and an apartment
in the most expensive area of the city. In general, older speakers have more
modest ambitions.Thus ELV (age 45) hopes to 'have a familyand get married'
(she is a maid, living by herself in a room in her employer's apartment);UBI
(age 42) wants only to 'stop being a janitor' (his currentprofession);ILD (age
43) hopes to become a seamstress or a manicurist,etc. By way of contrast,
SID (age 16), HEN (age 17), and MAR (age 26) want to travel outside Brazil
as a preliminaryto their future careers, a privilege usually reserved for the
childrenof the elite. VAN (age 15) is the would-be doctor, while IZE (age 23)
hopes to get a bankingjob. Althougha study of such aspirationswould indeed
be interesting, the high correlation with age rules out their use as a social
indicator.
What we really wish to measure is the degree to which a given speaker has
managed to penetrate the dominant culture of the middle and upper-middle
socio-economic levels.12 I have been careful to limit the desired measure to
middle-level CULTURE because, in point of fact, only one of the 17 speakers
consideredhere has anythinglike middle-classstatus in real life.'3 Despite this
lack of actual status, however, some speakers show that they are able to
participatein middle-class concerns and anxieties, and seem able to relate to
their middle-class interviewers perfectly well on this level. These speakers
have, as it were, a clear view from the outside, althoughthey are not actually
able to enter the higher socio-economic levels; the social view of the others
is strictly limited to their own level.
Since the interviews were conductedwith no specific concern for measuring
social factors, we must be satisfiedwith an indirectindicator.For this purpose,
I propose to use the speaker's reaction to television. In this connection, it is
importantto bear in mind that the target of Braziliantelevision programming
seems very narrowlyconfined to the urbanmiddle (or upper-middle)class-
probablybecause this group, althoughnumericallysmall in comparisonto the
total population of the country, controls a very large proportionof the total
purchasingpower. Prime evening time is taken up mainly by 'novelas', i.e.
12
My occasional use of the term 'class' is strictly non-technical. In particular, I do NOT have
in mind the Marxist concept of class or any of the associated theoretical apparatus.
13
This is CAN, who lives in his own apartment in one of the less expensive middle-class areas
of the city. All the other speakers either live with their employers or in areas of
markedly lower
socio-economic status.
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84 LANGUAGE, VOLUME57, NUMBER 1 (1981)
short-run soap operas that are heavily based on middle-class morality and
anxieties. These soap operas are followed by their viewers with great dedi-
cation, and are successfully used by businessmenas a basis for a whole series
of secondary products, rangingfrom record albums and magazines through
jewelry and other fashion items. Most of the comedy shows, too, presuppose
a culturaland political backgroundnot attainedby the people in our sample.
Nonetheless, a relativelysmallerproportionof broadcasttime (mainlySaturday
and Sunday afternoons)is given over to variety shows featuringpopularsing-
ers, sambas, amateurcompetitions of various sorts, and so on.
During investigations preliminaryto the 'Competencias Basicas do Por-
tugues' research project, it was quickly discovered (contraryto expectation)
that most of the speakers interviewed watched little if any television, even
when they had free access to a set. Those who did watch television over-
whelmingly preferred the weekend variety shows or broadcasts of soccer
matches. Whenrequested,most of the illiteratepeople interviewedwere unable
to recount the plots (or even, for that matter, the titles) of the most popular
novelas. The reason for these people's lack of interest in novelas seems to be
their inability to follow the story lines: they simply cannot understandthe
motivationbehind the characters'actions and reactions.
In the sample of 17 speakers under study here, only five are followers of
novelas. Of these, four are from the youngergroup-two females (SON, VAN)
and two males (SID, JOM)-while one (CAN, a male) is from the older group.
The remaining twelve speakers either watch no television at all, or watch
mainly the variety shows. Table 9 shows the usage of the verbal agreement
rule by these two groups. In accord with the ideas developed above, novela-
watching is taken as indicative of a wider culturalview-or what I shall call,
at Gillian Sankoffs suggestion (p.c.), a 'vicarious' orientation,in contrast to
the 'experiential'orientationof the remainingspeakers.
WEIGHTING TOKENS SPEAKERS
vicarious 1148/1795= 64.0% 64.9%
experiential 1854/4515= 41.1% 42.1%
TABLE 9.
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DIMENSIONSOF A SYNTACTICCHANGE 85
BRUL2 (see Table 10 for results), and appropriatelog likelihood tests were
performedin orderto evaluate the statisticalsignificanceof each group. These
tests show that each of the postulated factor groups, with the exception of
origin(city of Rio or surroundingareas), is significantat the .005 level or better,
but that this latter group's significanceis worse than .75. The tests rankedthe
factor groups in the following order: stress, cultural orientation, position of
subject, materialdifferentiation,age, sex. The first five of these groups were
then run in SPSS's MCA program.In order to test the remaininggroups (sex
and origin), the stress and materialdifferentiationfactor groups were replaced
by the morphologicalcategories of Table 4, and two separateruns were made,
each with the four surviving factor groups (morphologicalcategory, cultural
orientation,position of subject, age) as well as one of the two remainingvar-
iables. For this reason, the additivemodel results in Table 10 are, in fact, from
three separate runs.
TYPE CLASS FREQUENCY PROB ADJ DEV
STRESS
a unstressed 972/3568 = 27.2% 0.24 -20.5%
b stressed 2030/2742 = 74.0% 0.77 +26.7%
beta = 0.69
CULTURAL ORIENTATION
a vicarious 1148/1795 = 64.0% 0.69 + 19.7%
b experiential 1854/4515 = 41.1% 0.31 -7.8%
beta = 0.37
POSITION OF SUBJECT
la preposed 1802/3680 = 49.0% 0.71 +3.6%
b distant 84/254 = 33.1% 0.41 -17.6%
c postposed 59/252 = 23.4% 0.24 -29.9%
2a deleted 1057/2124 = 49.8% 0.65 +0.5%
beta = 0.22
MATERIAL DIFFERENTIATION
a minor 714/1682 = 42.4% 0.34 -11.0%
b greater 1029/2905 = 35.4% 0.54 +2.3%
c complete 1259/1723 = 73.1% 0.61 +6.9%
beta = 0.20
AGE
a older 1155/2430 = 47.5% 0.58 +6.9%
b younger 1847/3880 = 47.6% 0.42 -4.3%
beta = 0.16
SEX
a female 1826/3820 = 47.8% 0.54 +2.1%
b male 1176/2490 = 47.2% 0.46 -3.3%
beta = 0.08
ORIGIN
a city 1605/3216 = 49.9% 0.50 +1.6%
b environs 1397/3094 = 45.2% 0.50 -2.9%
beta = 0.06
(r = 0.82.)
TABLE 10.
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86 LANGUAGE, VOLUME57, NUMBER 1 (1981)
gistic model) and third (additive model) columns, however, representfor the
first time a complete overview of the joint effect of all variable constraints,
both structuraland social. The results for the former differ very little from
those already presented, since the social factors had been included implicitly
in the earliercalculationsby means of variablesrepresentingindividualspeak-
ers. The various factor groups are listed in Table 10 in order of statistical
significancewithin the logistic model as determinedby the log likelihoodtest.
This correspondsexactly with the orderingaccordingto partialbetas.
The statistic r is, roughly speaking, to the whole what the betas are to the
parts-it indicates (exactly), when squared, the total proportionof variation
in frequency of agreementattributableto the additiveeffects of all the factors.
The level of better than 0.8 achieved here is generally considered extremely
successful in empiricalstatistical investigations.
The results for the social variables are quite revealing. By far the most
importantsocial conditioningis attributableto the speaker's degree of pene-
tration into the culture of the surroundinghigher socio-economic levels, as
reflected in his or her habits of television viewing. It is true, of course, that
television provides a massive dosage of the standardlanguagewith its cate-
gorical agreementrule; but the same is true of radio, a mediumdirected more
towardthe lower classes and enjoyed by a good numberof the speakersin our
sample-even if its horoscopes, advice to the lovelorn, outragedcommentary
on local issues etc. are interspersedwith a good deal of popular music. The
devotion to novelas on the part of these people would seem to indicate that
theircomprehensionof middle-classlife style has reachedthe point where they
can follow the plots and develop an interest in them. It is the fact that these
speakersparticipatevicariouslyin a socio-culturalcontext foreignto theirown
milieu that is reflected by the culturalorientationvariable.'4
The age variable, which seems indifferentin terms of raw frequencies (but
see the last column of Table 8, where the data from each speakerare weighted
equally), shows a significantly higher rate of agreementfor the older group
when the simultaneouseffects of the other variablesare taken into account on
either the logistic or the additive model. This age-gradingin apparenttime is
the 'synchronic'reflex of the 'diachronic'trajectoryof the agreementrulefrom
the grammar.As we have come to expect in this sort of linguistic change,
women are closer to the prestige form than men-although, in this particular
case, the difference is very small and accounts for only a minute proportion
of the over-all variation,a fact reflected in an extremely low partialbeta. The
area of origin of the speakers shows no effect at all in the logistic model, and
a negligibly small effect in the additive model.
14For the
record, I know of one person for whom this variable does not provide the desired
results. This speaker, diagnosed as mentally retarded by the state authorities, has an over-all rate
of application of the agreement rule of only about 30%; yet she spends virtually the whole day
planted in front of a television set and thus watches the full range of programming, from the variety
shows through the novelas and even news broadcasts. Unfortunately, a thorough investigation of
the assumed general correlation between television viewing habits and cultural orientation would
require sophisticated sociological and anthropological techniques far beyond the goals of this paper.
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DIMENSIONSOF A SYNTACTICCHANGF 87
The first row of this table repeats the over-all frequency for all older and
younger speakers, considered as an aggregatedgroup; the second and third
rows break down this group into vicarious and experiential orientation
subgroups. Within both age groups, the speakers with a vicarious cultural
orientationshow more agreementthan those with an experientialorientation;
within each orientationgroup, older speakers agree more than younger speak-
ers. Unfortunately,this latterfact does not come throughto the over-allfigures
for age groups, because the skewed distributionof data causes the weighted
averages in the first line to turn out nearly equal. Nonetheless, the models of
joint effect are capable of overcoming this difficulty; they present a correct
evaluation of the effects of each variable.
Note that the orientation variable has a much greater effect than the age
variable. This can be seen in several ways. Formally, the partialbeta of the
additive model is more than twice as large for orientationas for age. Further-
more, the net difference associated with the vicarious/experientialdichotomy
is 27.5%, while that of older/youngeris only 11.2%.In the logistic model, the
probabilities for the orientation categories are more distant from 0.50 (the
neutral point) than those of the age variable. Finally, informalinspection of
Table 11 quickly makes one realize that the differencesbetween the rows are
far greaterthan those between the columns.
In sociolinguisticterms, the relativestrengthof these two variableconstraints
reflects a real-worldconflict between opposing trends. On the one hand, we
see in the age variablethe continuationof a slow process of rule death, related
to similar changes in the NP and elsewhere. This variable is, so to speak,
exterior to the speaker, impingingupon him or her without any internalmo-
tivation. The orientationvariable, on the other hand, reflects a resurgencein
the use of this same rule that comes from within the speaker, dependingupon
his or her own culturalorientation.In contrast to the relatively small effect of
being older, possessing a vicarious culturalview implies a large differentialin
incidence of the agreement rule, when comparedwith other speakers having
otherwise similarsocial characteristics.
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88 LANGUAGE, VOLUME 57, NUMBER 1 (1981)
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DIMENSIONSOF A SYNTACTICCHANGE 89
was used as a criterion for accepting numerically distinct results for such
neighboringcategories as statisticallyvalid. However, because of the relative
scarcity of data on individuals, it becomes necessary to relax this criterion
here to the 0.1 level.
For purposes of comparisonwith the grouped results, six individuals,rep-
resentinga balanced distributionof the three most importantsocial variables,
were chosen. It was requiredthat four of these speakers be from the younger
group, and two from the older. Withineach age sample, half were male, and
half female. Furthermore,in the case of the younger speakers, one individual
of each sex showed the vicarious culturalorientation,and one the experiential
orientation.15To amelioratethe problemof scarcity of data on individuals,the
speakers actually selected in accord with the above criteria were those who
had the greatest numberof data. Because of low cell counts, however, some
speakers showed categorical behavior (i.e. 0% or 100%rule application)in
certain cells (e.g., IZE had 0% for MorphologicalClasses la and lc). The
logistic model is unableto deal with such factors because the terms in Formula
3, of the form in 5, become zero or infinity under these conditions. For this
reason, speakers with categoricalcells were eliminatedfrom the comparison.
As it happens, the five individualswith the greatestnumberof dataare included
in the sample chosen in accord with the above requirements.
Table 12 reports the results for the morphologicalhierarchyin individuals.
15
It was not possible to impose this requirementon the older sample, since
only one older
speakerhad vicariousorientation(CAN), and he providedtoo few data tokens to'makethe com-
parisonworthwhile.
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90 LANGUAGE, VOLUME 57, NUMBER 1 (1981)
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DIMENSIONS OF A SYNTACTIC CHANGE 91
seems to be taking over the territoryof [-arf]). But on the lower end of the
morphologicalscale, this same process appears to be the result of a simple
phonologicalrule that denasalizes final vowels (e.g., in Class la, [i] becomes
[i]). In fact, such a rule exists in BrazilianPortugueseand applies variablyto
classes other than verbs (i.e. to nouns such as vagem 'stringbeans', adverbs
such as ontem 'yesterday', etc.) Furthermore,this rule is attested even in the
oldest texts, and thus predates the evolution of a non-agreeingsystem by at
least several centuries. In some areas of Portugal,principallyin the region of
Entre-Douro-e-Minho,the rule survives in popular speech, where its effects
have been reported in both nouns and verbs of Class la (virgem 'virgin' as
birge; vertem 'they spill' as berte-Vasconcellos [1901] 1970:86-7), although
no general variability in agreement is mentioned for the areas in question.
However, the view of loss of agreementas a consequence of a phonological
change is fully applicableonly in Class la; from Class lb upward, more than
the simple loss of nasalizationis involved, and the process can no longer be
viewed as a phonologicalrule.
The developments in real time mentionedabove lead one to investigate the
correspondingphenomenain apparenttime (i.e. in age groups). For this pur-
pose, Table 13 lists, for all three models, the results for Class la in the older
and younger groups, and compares these results with Class lb, the next cat-
egory. The results of the logistic model for these two categories are shown to
be statistically significantat the .005 level by the log likelihood test.
In all models, the older speakers evidence a wider gap between these two
classes; this indicates that, at earlierstages of the history of loss of agreement,
Class la was even further in the forefront of non-agreementthan it is now.
Since it is precisely Class la that represents the uniquely phonologicalcom-
ponent of the change, this in turn suggests that the loss of final nasalization
was once responsible for a largerproportionof the over-all process, and may
have been an actuatingforce behind it.
If we look at the same problemfrom a differentperspective, it is instructive
to compare loss of nasalizationin verbs with that in other grammaticalcate-
gories. In verbs, several distinct subcategories of nasalizationloss must be
considered. The results of denasalizationare summarizedin Table 14.
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92 LANGUAGE, VOLUME57, NUMBER 1 (1981)
In Class 1, the forms of the [ + nasal] column are plural, while those of the
[- nasal] column are singular;here the loss of nasalizationtotally destroys the
opposition. In Class 2, the forms of both columns must be classified as plurals,
since they are both distinct from the singular,and the loss of nasalizationdoes
not destroy the opposition. Finally, in Class 3, as in Class 2, both columns are
plural.
Votre 1978, 1979has studied the general process of denasalization-in par-
ticular, the relationshipof the rates of retention of nasalizationin the three
verbalclasses of Table 14 vs. that in nouns. In these considerations,the nouns
serve as a sort of control against which the behavior of the verbal classes is
measured.
Table 15 shows Votre's results (1979)for retentionof nasalizationin two age
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DIMENSIONSOF A SYNTACTICCHANGE 93
however, is the fact that, in the older speakers, loss of nasalizationin Class
1 verbs, which is equivalentto loss of subject/verbagreement,is no morelikely
than loss of nasalizationin nouns.
There are some strikinginconsistencies between the logistic model proba-
bilities and the correspondingraw frequencies in Table 15. In particular,al-
though Class 1 verbs and nouns show equal probabilitiesof nasal retention,
their frequencies for this same phenomenon are at opposite extremes, with
Class 1 verbs at 16.2%and nouns at 66.5%. The reason behindthis seemingly
strange situation is the concurrenteffect of stress. In verb Class 1, the nasal
is always in an unstressed syllable, while in nouns it is often in a stressed
syllable (alguem 'someone', mafa 'apple', etc.) This is a very important distri-
butionalproperty, since stressed nasals are nearly always retained(frequency
434/444 = 97.1%, probability0.95), while unstressed nasals often disappear
(frequency 393/1466 = 26.8%, probability0.05). Thus the difference in fre-
quencies between these two columnsin the older speakersis caused by a strong
correlationwith stress, ratherthan by a loss of nasalizationpeculiarto one or
the other class.
In the younger speakers, the situationis quite different.For this group, the
frequencies and probabilitiesagree in attributinga considerablylower rate of
nasal retentionto verb Class 1 thanto nouns. Furthermore,verb Class 3, which
had a higher rate of retention than nouns for the older speakers, is equal to
Class 1 for the younger speakers. This means that in the younger group, ac-
cording to the logistic model, verb Class 1 does have its own unique loss of
nasalization.In other words, in this age group, the loss of nasalizationin Class
1 verbs, and consequently of subject/verbagreement,can no longer be attrib-
uted to a correlationwith stress, even though stress remainspowerful (in the
logistic model, 0.93 for stressed and 0.07 for unstressed).Similarly,the peculiar
loss of nasalizationin verbs has spread,althoughnot as strongly,to verb Class
3, where nasalization is not redundant.Verb Class 2, however, has not yet
been affected. From these facts we may conclude that, in the youngergroup,
the loss of nasalizationin Class 1 verbs has at least two components-a general
denasalizationthat can be seen in the nouns, and a specific morphologicalshift
in favor of singulardesinences. The over-all view that emerges is this: within
the class of verbs, the phonologicalprocess of denasalization(and consequent
loss of agreement) made its first inroads at the weakest point (i.e. Class 1,
where the nasalizationis syntacticallydetermined),later generalizingto other
environments.
In general terms, the evidence indicates that, in the earlier stages of the
evolution of verbal agreement, environmentsinvolving simple loss of nasali-
zation were furtherin the forefrontof agreementreductionthanin laterstages-
and that, in the earlier stages, nasalization loss in Class 1 verbs was more
similar(in fact, nearly equal) to nasalizationloss in non-verbs. Extrapolating
backward,I conclude that one of the actuatingforces that set off the evolution
toward a non-agreeingmorphologicalsystem was the phonologicalrule of de-
nasalization.This rule was, and continues to be, variable.
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94 LANGUAGE, VOLUME 57, NUMBER I (1981)
9. SALIENCYHIERARCHIES
IN NOUN PHRASEAGREEMENT.As in the VP, the
agreement rule in the NP is disappearingin modern Brazilian Portuguese.
However, this change has a wider socio-economic distribution,and seems to
be furtherevolved. Within the NP, variationin the realizationof plural mor-
phemes is extensive, even in highly educated speakers who show nearly cat-
egorical markingof the verb.
The behaviorof nominalpluralshas been studiedin the area of MinasGerais
by Braga 1977, and in the area of Rio de Janeiroby Scherre 1978. These two
investigations produced essentially parallel results; but since the latter work
is partiallybased on a subgroupof the speakers in our sample, it will be cited
here. Scherre's illiterate speakers were all selected from among the younger
group. The over-all frequencies are given in Table 16 (Scherre. p. 98).
NAME APPLICATIONS TOTAL FREQUENCY
VAN 1084 1588 68.3%
SID 923 1365 67.6%
SON 619 947 65.4%
HEN 518 992 52.2%
IZE 587 1144 51.3%
JOM 738 1559 47.3%
TABLE16.
In addition, Scherre presents data from four speakersof the same age level,
but of higher socio-economic and educationalstatus. These speakers average
a frequency of 80.0% in applicationof agreement.
A hierarchyof saliency of the singular/pluralopposition, similarto that of
Table 3, was set up for the nominalsand postulatedas a constraintgroup. Pairs
in which the plural mark is in an unstressed syllable were assigned to Level
1, while Level 2 was reserved for the more salient case in which a pluralmark
occurs in the stressed syllable. WithinLevel 1, two classes were distinguished.
In Class la, the plural differs from the singularmerely by the addition of a
final -s (ano/anos 'year/years'), but in Class lb the plural form acquires an
extra syllable throughthe additionof-es (lugar/lugares'place/places').16Level
2 also has two subclasses. Class 2a consists of pairs in which the plural -s
attaches to the stressed final syllable, usuallywith furthermorphophonemically
determinedchanges: ancestral/ancestrais[-aw/-ays] 'ancestor/ancestors',dis-
cussdo/discuss6es [-iaw/-6ys]'discussion/discussions'.At the top of the hier-
archy is Class 2b, containingthe so-called metaphonicplurals, in which there
is a very salientchangein the qualityof the stressed root vowel with concurrent
additionof -s. (ovolovos [dvu]/[5vus]'egg/eggs'). A summaryof the hierarchy
of oppositional saliency is as follows:'7
16
Items of the type vez/vezes 'time/times',in which the -es follows anothersyllable endingin
a sibilant, were not includedin Class Ib: they undergoa haplologicalprocess of reduction,in-
dependentof the generalagreementrule.
17 The final -s of Classes
lb, 2a, and 2b may be deleted. In Scherre'sdata, the correspondence
to stress is not perfect, since she includespluralsof the type cafes 'coffees' in Class la and of the
typefdceis 'easy' (pl.) in Class 2a. Nonetheless, these items occur infrequently.
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DIMENSIONS OF A SYNTACTIC CHANGE 95
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96 LANGUAGE, VOLUME 57, NUMBER 1 (1981)
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DIMENSIONSOF A SYNTACTICCHANGE 97
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98 LANGUAGE, VOLUME57, NUMBER 1 (1981)
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