SI-2141

Pengantar Rekayasa Transportasi

KULIAH KE - 12
PERENCANAAN dan PEMODELAAN
TRANSPORTASI

Harun al-Rasyid Lubis, Ph.D

Labtek I Lt 2, Telp. 250 23 50 / 0811224875
halubis@yahoo.com

8/19/2009 1
 AGENDA PEMBAHASAN
Pengertian dan Kegunaan Perencanaan
Transportasi

Prinsip-Prinsip Perencanaan Transportasi

Lingkup Studi Perencanaan Transportasi

Prosedur Pelaksanaan Studi Perencanaan

Transportasi

Pemodelan Transportasi
8/19/2009 2
 Pengertian & KEGUNAAN
STUDI PERENCANAAN TRANSPORTASI

8/19/2009 3
 DEFINISI
perencanaan (Lubis et al, 2001):
proses kontinu yang melibatkan keputusan tentang bagaimana
memanfaatkan atau mengalokasi sumber daya yang ada untuk mencapai
tujuan tertentu.

perencanaan transportasi (Marangon, F., 2004):

This sector involves engineering activities aimed at the evaluation of
transportation scenarios (a railway network, an intermodal system, an
urban area, etc.), with the goal of obtaining system configurations and
plans that satisfy the service requirements, are consistent with the
existing constraints, and optimize given targets.

Horizon waktu (Morlok, E. K, 1978):

perencanaan transportasi secara tradisional digunakan untuk
mendeskripsikan suatu perencanaan jangka panjang (long range
planning)

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 Perumusan kebijakan transportasi

Tetapkan tujuan (goals):

(what is desired GOALS Descriptive
to be achieved) Orientative
O
U
T
S I Susun strategi Prescriptive
T S (basic course of act ion) STRATEGY
A SU untuk mewujudkan tujuan
N E
D S Rumuskan kebijakan agar POLICY
I strategi dapat berjalan
Orientative
N (directives to facilitate strategy)
Prescriptive
G
Bentuk policy instruments POLICY
agar policy dapat terlaksana INSTRUMENTS
PROGRAMS
Susun program -program
untuk melaksanakan strategi
Prescriptive

Sumber: Lubis et al, 2001

8/19/2009 5
 Pengertian Perencanaan

8/19/2009 6
 Identifikasi Masalah Transport
(top-down)

(bottom-up)

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 Pembuatan Keputusan Vs.
Pemecahan Masalah
Urut Langkah Fokus Pertanyaan

Identify the problem (1) Masalah Apa yang menjadi masalah dan apa yang

Fix the objective (2) - ditto - harus dicapai ?

Note the evidence (3) Evidence (bukti) Apa buktinya dan apa yang ia

Organise the information (4) - ditto- jelaskan/tunjukkan ?

Test the data (5) - ditto -

Generate alternative (6) Alternatif Apa alternatif nya dan yang mana yang

Evaluate the option (7) - ditto - terbaik ?.

Target the best choice (8) - ditto -

Make the decision (9) Keputusan Mana keputusan yang harus dipilih?

Explain the results (10) - ditto -

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 KEGUNAAN PERENCANAAN TRANSPORTASI
mengatasi masalah yang ada (problem solving),

melayani kebutuhan secara optimum (optimization),

mencegah persoalan yang diduga akan timbul (prevention),

mempersiapkan tindakan untuk tanggap pada keadaan di masa

depan (preparation),

mengoptimumkan daya dan dana yang dapat digunakan

sehingga tercapai daya guna dan hasil guna yang tinggi
(effectiveness).

8/19/2009 9
 AGENDA PEMBAHASAN
Pengertian dan Kegunaan Perencanaan
Transportasi

Prinsip-Prinsip Perencanaan Transportasi

Lingkup Studi Perencanaan Transportasi

Prosedur Pelaksanaan Studi Perencanaan

Transportasi
8/19/2009 10
 Transport Planning (Studies) Principle
Transport = Derived demand

Supply and Demand Equilibrium

Demand Pull Supply follow : Predict and Provide
Demand Management : Predict and Prevent

Travel choice is rational

Generalized Cost
Utility maximization
Planning for future transport needs
Anticipate future demands for travel
Travel demand forecasting
Relationship between transportation and land use
Generation of alternative
Evaluation

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 Transportation Planning Process

Regional population, land use,

and economic projections

Zonal allocation of regional

projections

Specification of highway, public Application of calibrated travel

transport alternatives demand forecasting models

Estimation of capital and Resulting target-year usage levels

operating costs and user benefits

Comparative evaluation of alternatives

Project selection and implementation

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 Participating groups

Elected officials
Public agencies
Citizen advisory committee
Private and public transportation system
operators
Interested individual

8/19/2009 13
 AGENDA PEMBAHASAN
Pengertian dan Kegunaan Perencanaan
Transportasi

Prinsip-Prinsip Perencanaan Transportasi

Lingkup Studi Perencanaan Transportasi

Prosedur Pelaksanaan Studi Perencanaan

Transportasi
8/19/2009 14
 LINGKUP PERENCANAAN TRANSPORTASI (LPM-ITB, 1996)
Studi Perencanaan Prasarana Transportasi :
Persiapan masterplan pelabuhan, bandar udara ataupun terminal
antar moda.
Penentuan trase jalan raya atau trase rel kereta.
Persiapan masterplan pengembangan jaringan jalan.
Persiapan masterplan prasarana transportasi bagi suatu daerah
pemukiman.

Studi Kebijakan Operasional :

Persiapan sistem sirkulasi lalu lintas jalan.
Strategi pengembangan tingkat pelayanan angkutan umum.
strategi operasional angkutan udara.

Studi Perencanaan Transportasi Komprehensif :

Studi kebutuhan prasarana dan sarana transportasi dari suatu
rencana pengembangan daerah baru (daerah rekreasi, daerah
industri ataupun daerah komersial).
Studi pengembangan sistem transportasi regional.
Studi pengembangan sistem transportasi nasional.

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 LEVEL PERENCANAAN (LPM-ITB, 1996)

Perencanaan Operasional
Perencanaan ini termasuk membuat denah untuk persimpangan-
persimpangan; untuk penyebrangan untuk pejalan kaki dan daerah
perparkiran, penempatan pemberhentian bis; membuat metoda
pemberian karcis; langkah-langkah untuk keselamatan; dsb.

Perencanaan Taktis
Tingkat perencanaan ini berhubungan dengan: pola-pola manajemen
lalu lintas; pembuatan jalan-jalan lokal; pengendalian parkir;
pengorganisasian transportasi umum; koordinasi dalam
memberlakukan tarif; membuat daerah-daerah untuk para pejalan
kaki, dsb.

Perencanaan Strategis
Hal ini berkaitan erat dengan struktur dan kapasitas jaringan
transportasi utama, keterkaitan antara transportasi dan tata guna
tanah, keseimbangan antara permintaan dan penawaran, keterkaitan
antara tujuan-tujuan transportasi dengan ekonomi, tujuan-tujuan
lingkungan dan sosial.
8/19/2009 16
 BEBERAPA CONTOH
STUDI PERENCANAAN SISTEM TRANSPORTASI

TATRANAS (Tatanan Transportasi Nasional),

TATRAWIL (Tatanan Transportasi Wilayah), Provinsi,
Tatralok :Lokal : Kabupaten, Kota, Kawasan,

MASTERPLAN, misal: Sistem Angkutan Perkotaan,

Perkeretaapian, dll

Perencanaan Sistem Jaringan Jalan (SISJAR) Nasional,

Provinsi, Kabupaten, Kota, Koridor, dll

Perencanaan Operasi, misal: manajemen lalulintas, dll

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 HIRARKI PERENCANAAN TRANSPORTASI
(b) Konsep Hirarki Perencanaan Transportasi di
(a) Konsep Hirarki Generik
Indonesia

Sistem Transportasi Nasional

RTRW Nasional
(Sistranas)

Sistem Transportasi Regional

RTRW Propinsi Propinsi

Sistem Transportasi Regional

RTRW Kabupaten/Kodya
Kabupaten/Kodya

RTRW Kawasan Sistem Transportasi Kawasan

Tatranas <tatrawil < tatralok

Sumber: Morlok E.K, 1978

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 PROSEDUR PERENCANAAN TRANSPORTASI
A. Siklus Umum Perencanaan Transportasi B. Pendekatan Perencanaan Transportasi

Top Down Approach Bottom Up Approach

Objective/Indicator Orientasi Pencapaian tujuan pemecahan masalah
formulasi (objective led) (problem solving)
Current strategi
Conditions Proses Tujuan Identifikasi Identifikasi masalah -
Policy masalah Alternatif solusi Alternative solusi -
Assess problems Aspect - Model Implementasi- Model Implementasi-
Evaluasi Evaluasi
Future
Identifikasi identifikasi masalah masukan permasalahan
Conditions
Develop Options masalah diperoleh dari diidentifikasi langsung
pengamatan manajemen dari tingkat bawah
tingkat atas, perencana, (operasional) maupun
pakar atau pengamat masyarakat
Objectives- Modeling lainnya
led Strategy
Kualifikasi & Kesenjangan antara Eksperimentasi dengan
Formulation
kuantifikasi kondisi yang menjadi model untuk
masalah harapan/tujuan dengan mengidentifikasi
Compare Solutions
kondisi yang terjadi masalah
Problem Keterlibatan Dilibatkan dalam proses
Solving Technical stakeholders penetapan tujuan
Formulation
Implement Aspect Aplikasi Sering digunakan dalam
berbagai studi di
Indonesia
Resiko Masalah dalam Kualitas model yang
Assess Performance
kuantifikasi tujuan digunakan
(quantified objective),
berupa indikator-indikator
Monitoring kinerja sistem
Sumber: Lubis et al (2001)

Dimodifikasi dari: May, A. D (1997)

8/19/2009 19
 PEMODELAN TRANSPORTASI

Harun al-Rasyid Lubis, PhD.

8/19/2009 20
 AGENDA PEMBAHASAN
Proses pemodelan transportasi
Modeling & asumsi dasar
Lingkup Studi Perencanaan Transportasi
Prosedur Pelaksanaan Studi Perencanaan
Transportasi
Model outputs
Validation and model errors
Future of traffic modeling
8/19/2009 21
 Proses Pemodelan Transport

Base year data Predicted data

Spesifikasi Model

Variabel model Implementasi Model Out put model

Kalibrasi Model Best fit model Analisis

Struktur model Validasi Model

Validation data

8/19/2009 22
 MODELING & SAMPLING

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8/19/2009 24
 Tata Ruang: Alternatif Penyebaran / formasi kota

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 Emission Indicators

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 BIAYA SOSIAL KEMACETAN
Kemacetan lalulintas jalan:
Menyebar ke semua waktu
Menyebar hampir ke semua
ruas jalan
Biaya kemacetan:
Pemborosan waktu ;
Pemborosan bok

Bandung (2002) : Rp 1,2 triliun / th ; Rp 1, 8 milyard / hr

Jakarta (2003) : Rp 17,2 triliun / th ; Rp 47 milyard / hr
Jabodetabek (SITRAMP, 2003) : Rp 5,4 trilliun/ th ; 14.8 milyard /hr

8/19/2009 27
 Pencemaran Udara Jakarta (2003)
Vehicle
(exhoust gas) Factory
28%
31%

Vehicle
49%
Household
6%
Factory
55%
Un-survey
Sektor transportasi menyumbang
factory

Un-survey
factory
Household
8%
dominant emisi NOx sebanyak 49%
13% 12%

dan TSP sebanyak 50%. Emisi SOx

Kompsisi Sumber SOx Kompsisi Sumber NOx
Factory
3 2 0 (p p b ) dominan disumbang oleh pabrik
23%

dan secondary kontributor adalah

Vehicle(re-
suspend)
50%
Un-survey
factory
sektor transportasi sebanyak 28%
8%
Household
8%
Vehicle
(exhoust gas)
11% 0 (p p b )

Kompsisi Sumber TSP Sebaran Spasial SOx Distribusi spasial pencemaran udara
9 0 (p p b ) 1 2 2 (u g / m 3 )
menunjukkan ada beberapa spot
area di pusat kota memiliki tingkat
polusi yang sangat tinggi

0 (p p b ) 2(ug / m3 )

Sebaran Spasial NOx Sebaran Spasial TSP

8/19/2009 28
 Penataan vertikal :The sky city 1000
(Takenaka with Shizuo Harada of ESCO Co., Ltd)

8/19/2009 29
 Mike Thompson ( 1974)

8/19/2009 30
 Energy Consumption Vs. Urban density

USA cities

Western European
cities
Indonesian cities
???
X

Hongkong

8/19/2009 31
 Asumsi Dasar Model Transport
Pola interaksi dan perilaku
Memaksimalkan utilitas
Kesetimbangan (equilibrium)
Agregasi

8/19/2009 32
 Interaksi Transport Tata Guna Lahan
Pemilihan
Moda
Pemilihan Pemilihan
Rute Tujuan

Volume di Ruas Keputusan Melakukan Perjalanan

Jalan

Waktu Tempuh/
Kepemilikan
Jarak/Biaya
Kendaraan

TRANSPORTASI

Aksesibilitas Aktifitas

GUNA LAHAN

Penempatan Lahan
Daya Tarik Lahan

Pemilihan Lahan
Pemilihan Lahan oleh Pengguna
oleh Investor

Pembangunan

8/19/2009 33
 Travel Demand Estimation
Divide study area into study zones
4 steps
1. Trip Generation (Tp & Ta)
-- decision to travel for a specific purpose
(eat lunch)
2. Trip Distribution (Tpa)
-- choice of destination (Sindang Reret)
3. Mode Choice (Tpam)
-- choice of travel mode (by motorcycle)
4. Network Assignment (Tpaml)
-- choice of route or path (Ganesha,
Hasanudin,DPU)

8/19/2009 34
 Model Transport 4 Tahap
Tata Guna Lahan dan Sistem Jaringan
Karakteristik Sosio Ekonomi Zona Transportasi

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

Modal Split

Trip Assignment

Volume Lalu Lintas

8/19/2009 35
 Tujuan Perjalanan/Trip
/Destination (D)
Asal
/Origin (O) Perjalanan
/Trip (t)

Bangkitan seluruh perjalanan

dari zona asal (O)

D5 Distribusi seluruh
20
D1 perjalanan dari zona
% asal (O) ke semua zona
30
D4
%
10
%
tujuan (D)
O
15
% 25
%
D3 D2

Tujuan
/Destination
Mobil Pribadi 25% Pemilihan/pemisahan
(D1) perjalanan menurut
Kendaraan Umum
20% jenis moda dari zona
Motor 30% asal (O) ke zona tujuan
(D1)
Tak Bermotor 15%

Asal Jalan Kaki 10%

/Origin (O)

Tujuan Pembebanan perjalanan

/Destination
(D1) menurut jenis moda
kepada rute-rute
(jaringan) diantara
pasangan zona asal (O)
dan zona tujuan (D)
Asal
/Origin (O)
8/19/2009 36
 Study Area
Clearly define the area under consideration
Where does one entity end?
May be defined by county boundaries,
jurisdiction, town centers

8/19/2009 37
 Basis for Travel Analysis Zones (TAZs)

Homogenous urban activities (generate same

types of trips)
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
May be as small as one city block or as large
as 10 sq. miles
Natural boundaries --- major roads, rivers,
airport boundaries
Sized so only 10-15% of trips are intrazonal

8/19/2009 38
 Sistem Zona (kecamatan)
Jakarta Mass Rapid Transit System Study

Zona Internal

222 224
226
231 223
233 225

234
236 212
213 227
232
211
218
215
237 214 256
238 216
235
251
217
242
257
241 253
245
246 243
271 248
258
Zona Eksternal
254

247 244

261
249 255
259

8/19/2009 39
 Sebaiknya ,
Batas zona diusahakan bertepatan
dengan batas daerah/wilayah kajian
Besar zona konsisten dengan kerapatan
jaringan tinjauan
Luas zona tidak terlalu kecil agar
pergerakan dapat dibebankan ke
jaringan secara efektif
Batas masing-masing zona sesuai
dengan jenis perkembangan tata ruang

8/19/2009 40
 Trip Generation / Bangkitan Perjalanan

8/19/2009 41
 Trip generation
Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi :

Pola dan intensitas tata guna lahan dan

perkembangannya di daerah studi

Karakteristik sosio-ekonomi populasi pelaku

perjalanan di daerah studi

Kondisi dan kapabilitas sistem transportasi yang

tersedia di daerah studi dan skema
pengembangannya
8/19/2009 42
 Fluktuasi bangkitan/tarikan
menurut maksud perjalanan

8/19/2009 43
 Pertumbuhan lalu lintas

8/19/2009 44
 Trip Generation Analysis
3 techniques
1. Cross-classification
2. Multiple regression analysis
Mathematical equation that describes
trips as a function of another variable
Similar in theory to trip rate
3. Trip-rate analysis models
Average trip-production or trip-
attraction rates for specific types of
producers and attractors
More suited to trip attractions
8/19/2009 45
 Trip Generation Methods
Cross - Classification
Used to determine TAZ productions in
regional models
Rates Based on Activity Units
Used for Traffic Impact Analysis or very
detailed regional models
Regression
Used to determine TAZ attractions

8/19/2009 46
 Cross-Classification Method
Households in TAZs aggregated into
groups
Rates for each group used to
determine the number of trips.
Trip rates based on household
characteristics (income level, vehicle
ownership, household size, )

8/19/2009 47
 Cross-Classification Method -
Example Cross-Classification Rates Table

Autos per Household

0 1 2 3 4+
Persons per
Household

1 0.16 0.82 1.02 0.82 0.86

2 0.27 0.99 1.77 1.86 1.94
3 0.37 1.71 2.29 2.7 3.06
4+ 1.56 1.9 2.18 2.93 3.43

8/19/2009 48
 Rates Based on Activity Units Method
Rates provided by the Institute of Transportation
Engineers (ITE)
Rates based upon demographics (average household
size, business type, number of employees )
ITE provides a trip
generation software package

8/19/2009 49
 ITE Trip Generation Software

8/19/2009 50
 Regression Method
Allows multiple variables and nonlinearity
The number of trips = f (population, autos,
number of dwelling units, )
The trip predictors (population, autos, )
need to be independent

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 Trip Distribution

8/19/2009 52
 Gravity Model

8/19/2009 53
 Trip Distribution -
The Gravity Model

8/19/2009 54
 Trip Distribution

Travel Time Distance Function

(Minutes) f(D)
2.9 3.6
3.7 3.1
4.1 2.5
5.2 2.0

f(D) can be a function of distance, time,

or user cost. Usually use time.
8/19/2009 55
 Trip Distribution

8/19/2009 56
 Trip Distribution

Trip Matrix Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Total Productions

Zone 1 13 2 5 20
Zone 2 143 51 106 300
Zone 3 20 8 22 50

8/19/2009 57
 The Four-Steps
Network Building - computer representation
of your city (not a step!)
Trip Generation - How many trips?
Trip Distribution - Where are they going?
Mode Choice - By what mode?
Trip Assignment - What path are they
taking?

8/19/2009 58
 Mode Choice

8/19/2009 59
 Mode Choice Models
None used in Iowa at present
number of trips smaller than error term
chicken and egg problem???
Diversion curves
Logit Models

8/19/2009 60
 Mode & Path Choice - Models

8/19/2009 61
 Mode & Path Choice -
Typical Decision Variables

Travel Time
In-vehicle time
Walk, wait and drive access
Travel Cost
Auto operating, transit fares, parking, tolls, etc.
Transfers
1, 2, or 3
8/19/2009 62
 Eggs-Planation
A cyclist can travel five kilometers on the energy of one egg
0 (symbol for one egg)

A person walking would require three eggs to go to the same distance

000

A loaded bus requeres the equivalent of about two dozen eggs for each person it carries
five kilometers
000000000000000000000000
A typical car requires the equivalent of seven dozen eggs to carry one person five
kilometers
0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Even if you double the fuel efficiency of the car and double the occupancy the car would
still use the equivalent of twenty-one eggs to make the trip more then twenty times a
bicycle
000000000000000000000
8/19/2009 63
 Kisaran kapasitas dan kecepatan

8/19/2009 64
 Strategi Bertahap (Incremental)

8/19/2009 65
 Singapore MRT

8/19/2009 66
 The Four-Steps
Network Building - computer representation
of your city (not a step!)
Trip Generation - How many trips?
Trip Distribution - Where are they going?
Mode Choice - By what mode?
Trip Assignment - What path are they
taking?

8/19/2009 67
 Trip Assignment -
Path Selection Criteria
Composite index of travel impedance
which would normally include:
Travel Time
Trip Cost
Out of pocket costs
Tolls
Turn Penalties & Prohibitions
(e.g., no left turn)
8/19/2009 68
 Trip Assignment -
Path Selection

8/19/2009 69
 Trip Assignment

Several methods available

uncongested
human behavior
congestion
model may have to be adjusted
bridges
freeways

8/19/2009 70
 Model Outputs
Link volumes and speeds
turning movements at intersections
estimates of VMT (vehicle miles
traveled)
congestion measures
all by category (jurisdiction, type of
roadway, corridor, )

8/19/2009 71
 Contoh Equilibrium

8/19/2009 72
 Steps to Obtain a
Reliable Model
Model Estimation
Model Calibration
Model Validation
Model Application
Reasonableness Checks
Sensitivity Checks

8/19/2009 73
 Validation and Reasonableness Checks

Estimation Calibration Validation Application

8/19/2009 74
 Steps to Obtain a Reliable Model
Model Estimation
Statistical estimation of model parameters
Trip Generation Rates
Trip Length Frequency Distribution
Model Calibration
Adjustment of model parameters until predicted travel
matches observed travel

8/19/2009 75
 Steps to Obtain a Reliable Model
Model Validation
Checking the model results against observed data
and adjusting the parameters until model results fall
within an acceptable range of error.
Model Application
Checking the reasonableness of future year traffic
projections
Testing the sensitivity of the model to system or
policy changes

8/19/2009 76
 Reasonableness Checks
Trip Length Frequency Distribution
Trip Generation Rates (What land uses
generate what kind and number of trips?
Total Regional Values (VMT, VHT)
Sub-regional Values
Logic Tests (Shortest Path)

8/19/2009 77
 Sensitivity Checks
How the model responds to changes in:
Transportation System
Socioeconomic Data
Policy Changes (For base year and future year!)

Expressed in the Elasticity of a variable

What happens to travel demand when gas prices
triple? Or, parking costs decrease dramatically?

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 Connectivity Check

8/19/2009 79
 Screen Line

8/19/2009 80
 Cordon Line

8/19/2009 81
 Cut Line

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 Acceptable Ranges of Error

8/19/2009 83
 Highway Assignments -
Level of Precision
In general, assignments have been considered
sufficiently accurate if to within +/- one lane of
traffic.
(More precision is being sought for air quality
analysis)
Intersection turning movements are beyond the
reach of region travel models!
(Local)

8/19/2009 84
 Travel models Masa depan ?

Simultaneous models (1970s)

dynamic models (ITS)
activity-based models
microsimulation models

8/19/2009 85
 TERIMA KASIH.

8/19/2009 86