ESTUDIO DEL MERCADO EN TUMBES

1.- Poblacin del Departamento de Tumbes por 1992-2003

Poblacin
Ao
(habitantes)
1992 100,000.00
1993 110,000.00
1994 115,000.00
1995 130,000.00
1996 155,000.00
1997 180,000.00
1998 220,000.00
1999 230,000.00
2000 260,000.00
2001 265,000.00
2002 280,000.00
2003 320,000.00
Fuente: Instituto Nacional de Estadstica e Informtica (INEI)

2.- Consumo Per-cpita de carne de pollo a nivel nacional (Kg/ha/ao)

C.P.C.
Ao
(Kg/hab/ao)
1992 15.0
1993 18.0
1994 17.0
1995 18.0
1996 20.0
1997 20.0
1998 24.0
1999 22.0
2000 26.0
2001 24.0
2002 28.0
Fuente: Ministerio de Agricultura - Oficina de Informacin Agraria

3.- Colocacin de pollos BB en Tumbes (1992-2003)

Colocacin de
Aos
pollos BB (unidades)
1992 200,000
1993 210,000
1994 196,000
1995 185,000
1996 240,000
1997 300,000
1998 280,000
1999 340,000
2000 310,000
2001 345,000
2002 360,000
Fuente: Ministerio de Agricultura - Oficina de Informacin Agraria
4.- Clculo de la Demanda potencial actual (T.M.)

Poblacin C.P.C Demanda Demanda

Ao
(hab) (Kg/hab/ao) Potencial (Kg) Potencial (T.M.)
1992 100,000.00 15.0 1,500,000.00 1,500.00
1993 110,000.00 18.0 1,980,000.00 1,980.00
1994 115,000.00 17.0 1,955,000.00 1,955.00
1995 130,000.00 18.0 2,340,000.00 2,340.00
1996 155,000.00 20.0 3,100,000.00 3,100.00
1997 180,000.00 20.0 3,600,000.00 3,600.00
1998 220,000.00 24.0 5,280,000.00 5,280.00
1999 230,000.00 22.0 5,060,000.00 5,060.00
2000 260,000.00 26.0 6,760,000.00 6,760.00
2001 265,000.00 24.0 6,360,000.00 6,360.00
2002 280,000.00 28.0 7,840,000.00 7,840.00

5.- Produccin de carne de pollo en Tumbes (T.M.)

Colocacin Rendimiento Produccin Produccin

Aos
de pollos BB (Kg) (Kg) (T.M.)
1992 200,000 2.20 440,000.0 440.00
1993 210,000 2.20 462,000.0 462.00
1994 196,000 2.20 431,200.0 431.20
1995 185,000 2.20 407,000.0 407.00
1996 240,000 2.20 528,000.0 528.00
1997 300,000 2.20 660,000.0 660.00
1998 280,000 2.20 616,000.0 616.00
1999 340,000 2.20 748,000.0 748.00
2000 310,000 2.20 682,000.0 682.00
2001 345,000 2.20 759,000.0 759.00
2002 360,000 2.20 792,000.0 792.00
 PROYECCIONES POR EL METODO DE REGRESIN LINEAL

PROYECCIN DE LA DEMANDA

Ecuacin lineal: Y=a+bX

donde: X = Tiempo
Y = Produccin (T.M.)

X Y
Aos Xi X2 Yi (T.M.) XY Y2
(Xi - X) (Yi - Y)
1998 1 -2 4.00 5,280.00 -980.00 1,960.00 960,400.00
1999 2 -1 1.00 5,060.00 -1,200.00 1,200.00 1,440,000.00
2000 3 0 0.00 6,760.00 500.00 0.00 250,000.00
2001 4 1 1.00 6,360.00 100.00 100.00 10,000.00
2002 5 2 4.00 7,840.00 1,580.00 3,160.00 2,496,400.00
Suma 15 0 10.00 31,300.00 0.00 6,420.00 5,156,800.00
Prom. 3 6,260.00

b= SXY = 6,420.00 = 642.00

SX2 10.00

a= Yi - bX = 6,260.00 - 642.00 x 3 = 4,334.00

Y2003 = a + bX = 4,334.00 + 642.00 x 6 = 8,186.00

Y2004 = a + bX = 4,334.00 + 642.00 x 7 = 8,828.00
Y2005 = a + bX = 4,334.00 + 642.00 x 8 = 9,470.00
Y2006 = a + bX = 4,334.00 + 642.00 x 9 = 10,112.00
Y2007 = a + bX = 4,334.00 + 642.00 x 10 = 10,754.00

Demanda
AO
Proyectada (T.M.)
2003 8,186.00
2004 8,828.00
2005 9,470.00
2006 10,112.00
2007 10,754.00

R2 = bSXY 642.00 x 6,420.00 = 0.80 (Correlacin alta)

=
Sy2 5,156,800.00
PROYECCIN DE LA OFERTA

Ecuacin lineal: Y=a+bX

donde: X = Tiempo
Y = Produccin (T.M.)

X Y Y2
Aos Xi X2 Yi (T.M.) XY
(Xi - X) (Yi - Y) (Yi - Y)
1998 1 -2 4.00 616.00 -103.40 206.80 10,691.56
1999 2 -1 1.00 748.00 28.60 -28.60 817.96
2000 3 0 0.00 682.00 -37.40 0.00 1,398.76
2001 4 1 1.00 759.00 39.60 39.60 1,568.16
2002 5 2 4.00 792.00 72.60 145.20 5,270.76
Suma 15 0 10.00 3,597.00 0.00 363.00 19,747.20
Prom. 3 719.40

b= SXY = 363.00 = 36.30

SX2 10.00

a= Yi - bX = 719.40 - 36.30 x 3 = 610.50

Y2003 = a + bX = 610.50 + 36.30 x 6 = 828.30

Y2004 = a + bX = 610.50 + 36.30 x 7 = 864.60
Y2005 = a + bX = 610.50 + 36.30 x 8 = 900.90
Y2006 = a + bX = 610.50 + 36.30 x 9 = 937.20
Y2007 = a + bX = 610.50 + 36.30 x 10 = 973.50

Oferta
AO
Proyectada (T.M.)
2003 828.30
2004 864.60
2005 900.90
2006 937.20
2007 973.50

R2 = bSXY 36.30 x 363.00 = 0.67 (Correlacin alta)

=
Sy2 19,747.20
 PROYECCIONES POR EL METODO PRIMERA SEMILOGARTMICA

PROYECCIN DE LA DEMANDA

Ecuacin lineal: Y = a + b Log X

donde: X = Tiempo
Y = Produccin (T.M.)

Zi Z Y
Aos Xi Z2 Yi (T.M.) YZ Y2
(Log Xi) (Zi - Z) (Yi - Y)
1998 1 0.0000 -0.4158 0.1729 5,280.00 -980.00 407.52 960,400.00
1999 2 0.3010 -0.1148 0.0132 5,060.00 -1,200.00 137.77 1,440,000.00
2000 3 0.4771 0.0613 0.0038 6,760.00 500.00 30.64 250,000.00
2001 4 0.6021 0.1862 0.0347 6,360.00 100.00 18.62 10,000.00
2002 5 0.6990 0.2831 0.0802 7,840.00 1,580.00 447.35 2,496,400.00
Suma 15 2.0792 0.0000 0.3047 31,300.00 0.00 1,041.90 5,156,800.00
Prom. 0.4158 6,260.00

b= SYZ = 1,041.90 = 3,419.44

SZ2 0.30

a = Yi - bZ = 6,260.00 - 3,419.44 x 0.4158 = 4,838.07

Y2003 = a + bZ = 4,838.07 + 3,419.44 x 0.77815 = 7,498.91

Y2004 = a + bZ = 4,838.07 + 3,419.44 x 0.8451 = 7,727.83
Y2005 = a + bZ = 4,838.07 + 3,419.44 x 0.90309 = 7,926.13
Y2006 = a + bZ = 4,838.07 + 3,419.44 x 0.95424 = 8,101.05
Y2007 = a + bZ = 4,838.07 + 3,419.44 x 1.0000 = 8,257.51

Demanda
AO
Proyectada (T.M.)
2004 7,498.91
2005 7,727.83
2006 7,926.13
2007 8,101.05
2008 8,257.51

R2 = bSYZ 3,419.44 x 1,041.90 = 0.69 (Correlacin alta)

=
Sy2 5,156,800.00
PROYECCIN DE LA OFERTA

Ecuacin lineal: Y = a + b Log X

donde: X = Tiempo
Y = Produccin (T.M.)

Zi Z Y Y2
Aos (Xi) Z2 Yi (T.M.) YZ
(LogXi) (Zi - Z) (Yi - Y) (Yi - Y)
1998 1 0.0000 -0.4158 0.1729 616.00 -103.40 43.00 10,691.56
1999 2 0.3010 -0.1148 0.0132 748.00 28.60 -3.28 817.96
2000 3 0.4771 0.0613 0.0038 682.00 -37.40 -2.29 1,398.76
2001 4 0.6021 0.1862 0.0347 759.00 39.60 7.37 1,568.16
2002 5 0.6990 0.2831 0.0802 792.00 72.60 20.56 5,270.76
Suma 2.0792 0.0000 0.3047 3,597.00 0.00 65.35 19,747.20
Prom. 0.4158 719.40

b= SYZ = 65.35 = 214.48

SZ2 0.30

a = Yi - bZ = 719.40 - 214.48 x 0.4158 = 630.21

Y2003 = a + bZ = 630.21 + 214.48 x 0.77815 = 797.11

Y2004 = a + bZ = 630.21 + 214.48 x 0.8451 = 811.47
Y2005 = a + bZ = 630.21 + 214.48 x 0.90309 = 823.91
Y2006 = a + bZ = 630.21 + 214.48 x 0.95424 = 834.88
Y2007 = a + bZ = 630.21 + 214.48 x 1.0000 = 844.69

Oferta
AO
Proyectada (T.M.)
2003 797.11
2004 811.47
2005 823.91
2006 834.88
2007 844.69

R2 = bSYZ 214.48 x 65.35 = 0.71 (Correlacin alta)

=
Sy2 19,747.20
 PROYECCIONES POR EL METODO SEGUNDA SEMILOGARTMICA

PROYECCIN DE LA DEMANDA

Ecuacin lineal: Log Y = a + b X

donde: X = Tiempo
Y = Produccin (T.M.)

X Yi Wi W
Aos Xi X2 XiWi XiW W2 XWi
(Xi - X) (T.M.) (Log Yi) (Wi - W)
1998 1 -2 4.00 5,280.00 3.7226 -0.0683 3.723 3.791 0.005 -7.445
1999 2 -1 1.00 5,060.00 3.7042 -0.0868 7.408 7.582 0.008 -3.704
2000 3 0 0.00 6,760.00 3.8299 0.0390 11.490 11.373 0.002 0.000
2001 4 1 1.00 6,360.00 3.8035 0.0126 15.214 15.164 0.000 3.803
2002 5 2 4.00 7,840.00 3.8943 0.1034 19.472 18.955 0.011 7.789
Suma 15 0 10.00 31,300.00 18.9545 0.0000 57.306 56.864 0.025 0.443
Prom. 3 3.7909

b = SXiWi - SXiW 57.31 - 56.86 0.0442671

= =
SX2 10.00

a = Wi - bXi = 3.79 - 0.0443 x 3 = 3.6580996

Log Y2003 = a + bX = 3.6581 + 0.0443 x 6 = 3.9237

Y2003 = antilog 3.9237021265 = 8388.84
Log Y2004 = a + bX = 3.6581 + 0.0443 x 7 = 3.9680
Y2004 = antilog 3.9679692144 = 9289.01
Log Y2005 = a + bX = 3.6581 + 0.0443 x 8 = 4.0122
Y2005 = antilog 4.0122363023 = 10285.76
Log Y2006 = a + bX = 3.6581 + 0.0443 x 9 = 4.0565
Y2006 = antilog 4.0565033902 = 11389.47
Log Y2007 = a + bX = 3.6581 + 0.0443 x 10 = 4.1008
Y2007 = antilog 4.1007704781 = 12611.61

Demanda
AO
Proyectada (T.M.)
2003 8,388.84
2004 9,289.01
2005 10,285.76
2006 11,389.47
2007 12,611.61

R2 = bSXWi 0.04427 x 0.44 = 0.80 (Correlacin alta)

=
SW2 0.02456
PROYECCIN DE LA OFERTA

Ecuacin lineal: Log Y = a + b X

donde: X = Tiempo
Y = Produccin (T.M.)

X Yi Wi W
Aos Xi X2 XiWi XiW W2 XWi
(Xi - X) (T.M.) (Log Yi) (Wi - W)
1998 1 -2 4.00 616.00 2.7896 -0.0657 2.790 2.855 0.004 -5.579
1999 2 -1 1.00 748.00 2.8739 0.0187 5.748 5.710 0.000 -2.874
2000 3 0 0.00 682.00 2.8338 -0.0215 8.501 8.566 0.000 0.000
2001 4 1 1.00 759.00 2.8802 0.0250 11.521 11.421 0.001 2.880
2002 5 2 4.00 792.00 2.8987 0.0435 14.494 14.276 0.002 5.797
Suma 15 0 10.00 3,597.00 14.2762 0.0000 43.053 42.829 0.008 0.225
Prom. 3 2.8552

b = SXiWi - SXiW 43.05 - 42.83 0.0224629

= =
SX
2
10.00

a = Wi - bXi = 2.86 - 0.0225 x 3 = 2.7878580

Log Y2003 = a + bX = 2.7879 + 0.0225 x 6 = 2.92264

Y2003 = antilog 2.9226354635 = 836.83
Log Y2004 = a + bX = 2.7879 + 0.0225 x 7 = 2.9451
Y2004 = antilog 2.9450983752 = 881.25
Log Y2005 = a + bX = 2.7879 + 0.0225 x 8 = 2.96756
Y2005 = antilog 2.9675612869 = 928.03
Log Y2006 = a + bX = 2.7879 + 0.0225 x 9 = 2.99002
Y2006 = antilog 2.9900241986 = 977.29
Log Y2007 = a + bX = 2.7879 + 0.0225 x 10 = 3.01249
Y2007 = antilog 3.0124871103 = 1029.17

Demanda
AO
Proyectada (T.M.)
2004 836.83
2005 881.25
2006 928.03
2007 977.29
2008 1,029.17

R2 = bSXWi 0.02246 x 0.22 = 0.66 (Correlacin alta)

=
SW2 0.00764
 PROYECCIONES POR EL METODO DOBLE LOGARTMICA

PROYECCIN DE LA DEMANDA

Ecuacin lineal: Log Y = a + b Log X

donde: X = Tiempo
Y = Produccin (T.M.)

Zi Z Yi Wi W
Aos Xi Z2 W2 ZW
(Log Xi) (Zi - Z) (T.M.) (Log Yi) (Wi - W)
1998 1 0.0000 -0.4158 0.1729 5,280.00 3.7226 -0.0683 0.005 0.028
1999 2 0.3010 -0.1148 0.0132 5,060.00 3.7042 -0.0868 0.008 0.010
2000 3 0.4771 0.0613 0.0038 6,760.00 3.8299 0.0390 0.002 0.002
2001 4 0.6021 0.1862 0.0347 6,360.00 3.8035 0.0126 0.000 0.002
2002 5 0.6990 0.2831 0.0802 7,840.00 3.8943 0.1034 0.011 0.029
Suma 15 2.0792 0.0000 0.3047 31,300.00 18.9545 0.0000 0.025 0.072
Prom. 3 0.4158 3.7909

b= SZW 0.072 0.23748

= =
SZ2 0.3047

a = W - bZi = 3.7909 - 0.2375 x 0.4158 = 3.6921498

Log Y2003 = a + bX = 3.6921 + 0.2375 x 0.778 = 3.87694

Y2003 = antilog 3.876941879 = 7532.55
Log Y2004 = a + bX = 3.6921 + 0.2375 x 0.845 = 3.89284
Y2004 = antilog 3.892840117 = 7813.40
Log Y2005 = a + bX = 3.6921 + 0.2375 x 0.903 = 3.90661
Y2005 = antilog 3.906611796 = 8065.14
Log Y2006 = a + bX = 3.6921 + 0.2375 x 0.954 = 3.91876
Y2006 = antilog 3.918759278 = 8293.91
Log Y2007 = a + bX = 3.6921 + 0.2375 x 1.000 = 3.92963
Y2007 = antilog 3.929625571 = 8504.05

Demanda
AO
Proyectada (T.M.)
2003 7,532.55
2004 7,813.40
2005 8,065.14
2006 8,293.91
2007 8,504.05

R2 = bSZW 0.23748 x 0.07 = 0.70 (Correlacin alta)

=
SW2 0.02456
PROYECCIN DE LA OFERTA

Ecuacin lineal: Log Y = a + b Log X

donde: X = Tiempo
Y = Produccin (T.M.)

Zi Z Yi Wi W
Aos Xi Z2 W2 ZW
(Log Xi) (Zi - Z) (T.M.) (Log Yi) (Wi - W)
1998 1 0.0000 -0.4158 0.1729 616.00 2.7896 -0.0657 0.004 0.027
1999 2 0.3010 -0.1148 0.0132 748.00 2.8739 0.0187 0.000 -0.002
2000 3 0.4771 0.0613 0.0038 682.00 2.8338 -0.0215 0.000 -0.001
2001 4 0.6021 0.1862 0.0347 759.00 2.8802 0.0250 0.001 0.005
2002 5 0.6990 0.2831 0.0802 792.00 2.8987 0.0435 0.002 0.012
Suma 15 2.0792 0.0000 0.3047 3,597.00 14.2762 0.0000 0.008 0.041
Prom. 3 0.4158 2.8552

b= SZW 0.041 0.13395

= =
SZ2 0.3047

a = W - bZi = 2.8552 - 0.1339 x 0.4158 = 2.7995460

Log Y2003 = a + bX = 2.7995 + 0.1339 x 0.778 = 2.90378

Y2003 = antilog 2.90378 = 801.27
Log Y2004 = a + bX = 2.7995 + 0.1339 x 0.845 = 2.91275
Y2004 = antilog 2.91275 = 817.99
Log Y2005 = a + bX = 2.7995 + 0.1339 x 0.903 = 2.92051
Y2005 = antilog 2.92051 = 832.75
Log Y2006 = a + bX = 2.7995 + 0.1339 x 0.954 = 2.92737
Y2006 = antilog 2.92737 = 845.99
Log Y2007 = a + bX = 2.7995 + 0.1339 x 1.000 = 2.93349
Y2007 = antilog 2.93349 = 858.01

Demanda
AO
Proyectada (T.M.)
2003 801.27
2004 817.99
2005 832.75
2006 845.99
2007 858.01

R2 = bSZW 0.13395 x 0.04 = 0.72 (Correlacin alta)

=
SW2 0.00764
6.- Resumen de Ecuaciones de Prediccin

Ecuaciones de R2
prediccin Demanda Oferta
Regresin Lineal 0.80 0.67
Primera semilogartmica 0.69 0.71
Segunda semilogartmica 0.80 0.66
Doble logartmica 0.70 0.72

7.- Determinacin de la demanda insatisfecha (T.M.)

Demanda Oferta Demanda

Ao
Proyectada(T.M.) Proyectada (T.M.) Insatisfecha
Doble Logartmica Regresin Lineal (T.M.)
2003 7,532.55 828.30 6,704.25
2004 7,813.40 864.60 6,948.80
2005 8,065.14 900.90 7,164.24
2006 8,293.91 937.20 7,356.71
2007 8,504.05 973.50 7,530.55

Curva de la Demanda insatisfecha

T.M.
7,600.00
7,400.00
7,200.00
7,000.00
6,800.00
6,600.00
6,400.00
6,200.00 Aos
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

La demanda insatisfecha se incrementa a travs de los aos, por lo tanto el proyecto es

VIABLE.