Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Preface
Together, Metropolitan Outlook 1 and Metropolitan Outlook 2 provide economic
insights into 28 census metropolitan areas in Canada.
To cite this report: Arcand, Alan, Constantinos Bougas, Henry Diaz, Jane McIntyre, and Robin Wiebe.
Metropolitan Outlook 1: Economic Insights Into 13 Canadian Metropolitan EconomiesAutumn2017.
Ottawa: The Conference Board of Canada, 2017.
An accessible version of this document for the visually impaired is available upon request.
Accessibility Officer, The Conference Board of Canada
Tel.: 613-526-3280 or 1-866-711-2262 E-mail: accessibility@conferenceboard.ca
The Conference Board of Canada and the torch logo are registered trademarks of The Conference
Board, Inc. Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are subject
to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal,
or tax advice. The findings and conclusions of this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the external
reviewers, advisors, or investors. Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation remain the sole responsibility
of The Conference Board of Canada.
CONTENTS
i CANADA
vi CANADA (FRANAIS)
1 Nova Scotia
6 Halifax
16 Quebec
21 Qubec City
31 Montral
41 Qubec (franais)
47 Ville de Qubec (franais)
57 Montral (franais)
68 Ontario
73 OttawaGatineau
84 Toronto
94 Hamilton
104 Manitoba
109 Winnipeg
120 Saskatchewan
125 Regina
135 Saskatoon
145 Alberta
150 Calgary
160 Edmonton
Appendix A
196 Cross-City Comparison
Appendix B
197 Users Guide
Appendix C
206 Glossary of EconomicTerms
Appendix D
207 Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas
Acknowledgements
The articles were written by:
CanadaAlan Arcand, Associate Director, Centre for Municipal Studies
Canada (franais)Alan Arcand, directeur, Centre dtudes municipales
Nova ScotiaJane McIntyre, Senior Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
HalifaxJane McIntyre, Senior Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
QuebecHenry Diaz, Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
Qubec CityHenry Diaz, Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
MontralHenry Diaz, Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
Qubec (franais)Henry Diaz, conomiste, Centre dtudes municipales
Ville de Qubec (franais)Henry Diaz, conomiste, Centre dtudes
municipales
Montral (franais)Henry Diaz, conomiste, Centre dtudes municipales
OntarioConstantinos Bougas, Economist, Centre for MunicipalStudies
OttawaGatineauAlan Arcand, Associate Director, Centre for Municipal Studies
TorontoConstantinos Bougas, Economist, Centre for MunicipalStudies
HamiltonConstantinos Bougas, Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
ManitobaConstantinos Bougas, Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
WinnipegConstantinos Bougas, Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
SaskatchewanRobin Wiebe, Senior Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
ReginaRobin Wiebe, Senior Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
SaskatoonRobin Wiebe, Senior Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
AlbertaJane McIntyre, Senior Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
CalgaryJane McIntyre, Senior Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
EdmontonJane McIntyre, Senior Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
British ColumbiaAlan Arcand, Associate Director, Centre for Municipal Studies
VancouverRobin Wiebe, Senior Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
VictoriaAlan Arcand, Associate Director, Centre for Municipal Studies
Canada
At a Glance
Housing starts are on track to surpass 200,000 units for the first time
infiveyears in 2017.
CANADA
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Households remain the main driver of growth.
i
Business investment, excluding residential
Credit Quality
structures, is set to decline for the third
AAA consecutive year in 2017.
Forecast Risk
i
Rising protectionism could lead to much weaker
growth in exports than projected in our outlook.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at market prices 1,753,683 1,770,196 1,796,178 1,843,676 1,878,769 1,913,310 1,948,248 1,980,857
(2007 $ millions) 2.6 0.9 1.5 2.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7
Total employment (000s) 17,797 17,949 18,083 18,341 18,512 18,697 18,879 19,066
0.6 0.9 0.7 1.4 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
Unemployment rate (per cent) 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.0
Personal income per capita ($) 43,820 45,281 46,214 47,257 48,508 49,807 51,117 52,497
Population (000s) 35,496 35,821 36,229 36,646 37,026 37,403 37,776 38,148
1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Single-family housing starts (000s) 75.5 68.1 74.1 82.5 76.8 73.6 73.0 72.5
Multi-family housing starts (000s) 113.8 127.4 123.8 128.7 117.6 117.2 116.4 115.8
Retail sales ($ millions) 510,478 523,922 550,793 582,604 596,405 609,550 623,236 636,188
5.1 2.6 5.1 5.8 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.252 1.266 1.284 1.307 1.334 1.362 1.390 1.419
1.9 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1
Weakening growth in house prices is another factor that will hurt consumer
spending. The average homeowner saw the value of their house rise a whopping
$46,700 in 2016. This has supported recent increases in consumer spending as
households have spent some of their newfound wealth. Cooling growth in home
prices is expected to act as a drag on household spending over the second
half of this year and into 2018. There is also an increased risk of a significant
correction in the housing market, which could have a major impact on consumer
spending and the broader economy.
The trade sector has also been underperforming. Outside of energy, exports
have fallen over the last year. This has been an especially poor performance
considering the weakness in the Canadian dollar over that time. Only a recovery
in energy exports (after the Fort McMurray wildfires slashed last years numbers)
has allowed merchandise exports to post any growth at all. Exports are expected
to fare better in 2018 thanks to stronger global economic growth, but there is a
risk that protectionist policies south of the border will cause us to downgrade
ourforecast.
Aperu
Le PIB rel devrait enregistrer une croissance solide de 2,6% cette anne
auCanada, mais ce taux redescendra sous la barre des 2% en 2018.
CANADA
h
2016 2017 2018-2021 2012-2021 Les mnages demeurent le principal moteur
decroissance.
1,5 2,6 1,8 1,9
i
Les investissements des entreprises ( lexception
Qualit du crdit
des investissements rsidentiels) devraient
AAA diminuer pour la troisime anne conscutive
en2017.
Source : Standard & Poors.
Risque conjoncturel
i
Sous leffet de la monte du protectionnisme,
la croissance des exportations pourrait tre
beaucoup moins leve que prvu.
Indicateurs conomiques
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
PIB rel au prix du march 1 753 683 1 770 196 1 796 178 1 843 676 1 878 769 1 913 310 1 948 248 1 980 857
(M$ de 2007) 2,6 0,9 1,5 2,6 1,9 1,8 1,8 1,7
Nombre total demplois (milliers) 17 797 17 949 18 083 18 341 18 512 18 697 18 879 19 066
0,6 0,9 0,7 1,4 0,9 1,0 1,0 1,0
Taux de chmage (%) 6,9 6,9 7,0 6,6 6,4 6,3 6,1 6,0
Revenu personnel par habitant ($) 43 820 45 281 46 214 47 257 48 508 49 807 51 117 52 497
Population (milliers) 35 496 35 821 36 229 36 646 37 026 37 403 37 776 38 148
1,1 0,9 1,1 1,2 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0
Mises en chantier 75,5 68,1 74,1 82,5 76,8 73,6 73,0 72,5
logements individuels (milliers)
Mises en chantier 113,8 127,4 123,8 128,7 117,6 117,2 116,4 115,8
logements collectifs (milliers)
Ventes au dtail (M$) 510 478 523 922 550 793 582 604 596 405 609 550 623 236 636 188
5,1 2,6 5,1 5,8 2,4 2,2 2,2 2,1
IPC (2002 = 1,0) 1,252 1,266 1,284 1,307 1,334 1,362 1,390 1,419
1,9 1,1 1,4 1,9 2,0 2,2 2,1 2,1
Summary
Nova Scotias economy is among the weakest in Canada this year. Real
GDP growth of just 0.3per cent is expected for this year and 1.2per cent
fornextyear.
Employment growth will be limited over the next few years, despite improving
economic conditions, because of stagnant labour force growth.
Business investment is set to decline next year as work on the Nova Centre
andthe Maritime Link transmission project comes to an end late in 2017.
NOVA SCOTIA
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Growth in the manufacturing sector is largely
dueto shipbuilding in Halifax.
0.9 0.3 1.2 0.6
i
The primary sector is contributing very little
Credit Quality
to economic growth as offshore natural gas
A+ reservesdwindle.
Forecast Risk
h
The cancellation of the Pacific NorthWest LNG
project in British Columbia might attract interest
inNova Scotias offshore natural gas reserves.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 32,243 32,560 32,866 32,956 33,339 33,742 34,130 34,571
(2007 $ millions) 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.3
Total employment (000s) 448 448 446 449 450 451 450 451
1.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Unemployment rate (per cent) 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.3
Personal income per capita ($) 39,754 41,073 41,958 42,809 43,849 44,901 45,772 46,751
Population (000s) 944 944 949 954 958 961 964 967
0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Single-family housing starts (000s) 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5
Multi-family housing starts (000s) 1.7 2.5 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6
Retail sales ($ millions) 14,038 14,063 14,703 15,232 15,448 15,692 15,878 16,057
2.7 0.2 4.6 3.6 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.1
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.288 1.293 1.309 1.324 1.350 1.380 1.409 1.438
1.7 0.4 1.2 1.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1
Getting Old
Nova Scotias economy is expected to be among
the weakest in Canada over this year and next,
as the rapidly aging population will hold back
economic growth. Overall, GDP growth of just
0.3per cent is forecast for this year and 1.2per
cent for next year.
One of the bright spots in the province is the manufacturing sector.
Manufacturing output is expected to increase by 3.6per cent next year, as
thefirst of six Arctic and offshore patrol ships for the Royal Canadian Navy
is slated for delivery in 2018. In addition, Michelin is undergoing a two-year
expansion at its Grafton plant to adapt to stronger demand for winter tires.
The manufacturing sector will also benefit from a rebound in the fishing sector
through its seafood processing activities. However, the other goods-producing
industries are struggling.
The primary sector will provide very little economic growth to the province, as
both offshore natural gas production sites are scheduled to shut down. As well,
cuts to shrimp quotas are causing the fishing sector to decline by 4.2per cent
this year. But conditions in the sector are forecast to improve in 2018, thanks
tohealthy demand for seafood products in the United States and Asia.
gas sector are also making companies reluctant to make the large capital
investments required to bring new projects to life. Shell Canada has sealed
itsexploration wells, while BP is delaying exploration activities until 2018.
Chart 1
Industry Outlook, 201721
(average annual compound growth rate)
Chart 2
Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0)
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
f = forecast
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
Summary
Halifaxs economy is expected to grow by 1.4per cent this year, close to the
1.5per cent increase seen in 2015 and 2016.
Employment growth will be basically flat this year, but we expect it to accelerate
at a healthy pace in 2018.
The regions unemployment rate will climb to 6.6per cent this year as labour
force growth outpaces the marginal gain in employment.
HALIFAX
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Work on the Artic patrol ships at the Halifax
Shipyard continues to help drive the regions
1.5 1.4 2.1 1.5
manufacturing sector.
Out of 13 CMAs #8 #13 #7 #13
h
Consumers are spending in spite of a weak
jobmarket, helping to boost wholesale and
2016
i
Slowing population increases could constrain
Homeownership 0.59 theHalifax economys growth potential over the
next few years.
Rental 1.10
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 17,809 18,081 18,358 18,612 19,025 19,440 19,839 20,239
(2007 $ millions) 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0
Total employment (000s) 223 224 226 226 230 233 236 238
0.4 0.3 1.0 0.1 1.5 1.6 0.9 1.1
Unemployment rate (per cent) 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.1 5.8
Personal income per capita ($) 42,625 43,925 44,576 44,883 45,985 47,278 48,408 49,602
1.3 3.0 1.5 0.7 2.5 2.8 2.4 2.5
Population (000s) 414 418 426 434 440 446 451 456
0.9 0.9 2.0 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0
Total housing starts 1,757 2,599 2,305 2,648 2,535 2,442 2,371 2,310
Retail sales ($ millions) 6,802 6,855 7,220 7,542 7,759 7,954 8,148 8,343
2.1 0.8 5.3 4.5 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.4
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.275 1.282 1.298 1.314 1.340 1.370 1.399 1.428
1.8 0.6 1.3 1.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1
The local job market has put up disappointing numbers this year. In fact,
employment growth is expected to reach just 0.1per cent in 2017. At the same
time, higher migration numbers are working to boost not only population growth
but also the regions labour force. As a result, Halifaxs unemployment rate is
ontrack to rise to 6.6per cent this year, up from 6.2per cent in 2016.
headwind to economic growth. Still, the stronger economy will translate into
much healthier job growth of 1.5per cent, which in turn will help push the
unemployment rate down to 6.3per cent.
Luckily, the manufacturing sector has fared much better over the past couple of
years. Output grew by an average of 2.9per cent per year in 201516, bolstered
by the start of construction on the multi-year, multi-billion-dollar contract to
build ships for the Royal Canadian Navy, part of the National Shipbuilding
Procurement Strategy. As work on the ships continues this year, manufacturing
sector output is expected to increase another 1.9per cent. Output growth in the
manufacturing sector will then accelerate to 3.9per cent in 2018, when the first
of six Arctic and offshore patrol ships is delivered to the navy. This first stage
is expected to be complete by 2020, just as the larger part of the strategythe
completion of up to 15 new warships for the Canadian surface combatant fleet
gets under way. This second stage is scheduled to take 20years.
Construction output is poised to tumble 2.8 per cent this year. Non-residential
investment activity has weakened considerably, as spending on the major
projects has wound down. This has also overshadowed the start of other
projects such as the Centre for Ocean Ventures & Entrepreneurship, the
Queens Marque and Cunard developments on the Halifax waterfront,
renovations at the Dartmouth General Hospital, and the construction of new
schools and big retail developments like Cabela and Ikea. Still, a second-
quarter surge in both single-detached and multi-family starts has set the stage
for a 15per cent increase in housing starts this year. In fact, construction is
projected to start on about 2,650homes in 2017, the highest level in five years.
A number of new condominium projects have helped to boost multiple starts
inrecentmonths.
Both the finance, insurance, and real estate sector and the business services
sector have performed consistently well for a number of years, benefitting from
Halifaxs position as a hub city for the Atlantic region, its skilled workforce,
and its post-secondary institutions, all of which allow the city to attract new
businesses. Indeed, finance, insurance, and real estate sector output is forecast
to grow by an average of 2.7per cent annually over this year and next, while
output growth in business services will average an even stronger 3.4per cent
per year.
In spite of this years weak job market, a 2.5per cent gain in personal disposable
income and a steady economy will keep consumers spending. Retail sales are
forecast to increase by 4.5per cent in 2017, leading to a 5.0per cent jump in
wholesale and retail trade output. Retail sales and wholesale and retail trade
output are forecast to advance by a further 2.9per cent and 2.7per cent,
respectively, next year, supported by much stronger job and income growth.
HALIFAX
Chart 1 Chart 2
Employment Outlook GDP Outlook
Fin., ins., & real est. 0.5 0.1 Fin., ins., & real est. 2.7 2.3
Information & cultural 6.9 0.2 Information & cultural 0.8 0.9
Trans. & ware. 4.6 1.9 Trans. & ware. 0.8 2.5
Wholesale & retail 6.0 1.5 Wholesale & retail 5.0 2.2
6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 1 0 1 2 3 4 4 2 0 2 4 6 0 1 2 3
Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Halifax | The Conference Board of Canada
HALIFAX
Table 1 Table 2
Sectoral Employment Dominant Industries, 2016
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
Total employment 223.1 223.9 226.1 226.4 229.9 233.4 235.6 238.2 44114543 Retail trade 26.2
0.4 0.3 1.0 0.1 1.5 1.6 0.9 1.1
6220 Hospitals 15.6
Goods sector 30.7 29.3 29.7 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.6
231129 Construction 15.6
3.6 4.7 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.8 1.7
722124 Food and beverage services 13.9
Manufacturing 10.6 9.7 9.3 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.8 11.0
6.1 8.7 4.1 12.8 2.1 0.8 0.7 1.4 611217 Post-secondary education 10.1
Construction 15.9 14.9 15.6 15.3 15.0 14.8 14.4 14.7 6111 Primary and secondary schools 9.9
7.1 6.5 4.8 2.2 1.7 1.3 2.8 2.0 621119 Ambulatory health care services 7.9
Primary and utilities 4.2 4.7 4.8 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 5511, 561112, Other management and 7.7
12.4 12.3 1.8 26.1 6.4 0.8 2.6 1.3 561517, 5619, administrative services
562129
Services sector 192.4 194.6 196.4 197.1 200.4 204.0 206.5 208.5
0.1 1.1 0.9 0.4 1.6 1.8 1.2 1.0 911011 Federal government 7.5
Transportation and warehousing 10.4 10.8 11.4 10.9 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.7 411191 Wholesale trade 7.5
6.2 4.0 5.5 4.6 0.8 2.9 2.4 1.5
*North American Industrial Classification System
Information and cultural industries 6.9 5.6 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 Source: Statistics Canada.
11.6 17.8 17.2 6.9 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3
Wholesale and retail trade 36.4 33.2 33.6 35.6 35.7 36.9 37.3 37.8
4.2 8.7 1.1 6.0 0.4 3.3 1.2 1.2
Chart 3
Finance, insurance, and real estate 14.6 16.1 16.4 16.3 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.3
Employment Market Variability
6.0 10.3 1.7 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.3
Business services 30.0 30.7 30.8 29.6 30.9 32.0 32.6 33.0
Fluctuations Compared to Canada
4.5 2.2 0.2 3.7 4.4 3.6 1.9 1.3
Personal services 29.1 29.7 28.8 29.9 30.2 30.6 31.1 31.5 Halifax 164
0.4 2.1 3.2 3.9 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.3
Canada 100
Non-commercial services 49.2 51.3 54.6 52.4 53.2 53.5 53.7 54.0
3.0 4.3 6.4 4.1 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 50 100 150 200
Public administration 15.8 17.1 16.2 17.5 17.8 18.4 18.8 19.2
4.9 7.9 5.0 7.8 2.0 2.9 2.3 2.3
No link to
Shaded area represents forecast data; italics indicate percentage change. Canada 45%
First line of employment data is in thousands and second line is percentage change.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Link to Canada 55%
HALIFAX
Table 3 Table 4
Construction, Commercial Real Estate, and Income Overview Real Estate
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 683,110 660,292 766,429 793,498 922,418 640,816 660,762 695,018 613,793 Downtown office market (2016Q4)
Residential 378,793 386,147 503,766 520,558 540,711 398,466 418,859 486,744 434,539 Class A vacancy rate 17.5%
Average Class A net rent ($/sq. ft.) $20.16
Non-residential 304,317 274,145 262,663 272,940 381,707 242,350 241,903 208,274 179,254
Suburban office market (2016Q4)
Industrial 30,763 27,922 22,836 21,258 34,526 28,701 35,053 16,474 7,223
Class A vacancy rate 13.7%
Commercial 155,454 216,988 177,564 206,376 255,442 156,128 171,362 167,351 135,778
Average Class A net rent ($/sq. ft.) $15.50
Public admin. 118,100 29,235 62,263 45,306 91,739 57,521 35,488 24,449 36,253
and non-comm. Industrial market (2016Q4)
Overall availability rate 11.6%
Office sector*
Average net rent ($/sq. ft.) $7.74
No. of square feet 4,473 4,473 4,536 4,660 4,753 4,827 5,047 5,059 5,059
Apartment market (October 2016)
(000s)
Percentage change 2.1 0.0 1.4 2.7 2.0 1.6 4.6 0.2 0.0 Two-bedroom vacancy rate 2.6%
Average two-bedroom rent $1,072.00
Vacancy rate (%) 4.3 7.0 9.9 9.9 10.8 8.3 13.6 14.3 17.5
Bankruptcies
Consumer 1,411 1,674 1,503 1,307 1,219 1,265 1,382 1,392 1,462 Chart 5
Business 76 66 77 54 36 42 26 35 28 Economic Structure, 2016
*Information and cultural services; finance, insurance, and real estate; business services; and public administration.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; Industry Canada; CBRE.
Highly diverse = 1
Not diverse = 0
Chart 4 Halifax
Personal Income Per Capita, 2016 0.89
($ 000s)
Canada 46.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
HALIFAX
Chart 6 Table 5
Sources of Migration Comparative Employment, 2016
(share of total employment)
International Interprovincial Intercity
Forecast
Sector Halifax Nova Scotia Canada
8,000
Industrial 0.13 0.18 0.21
6,000
Office 0.30 0.23 0.25
4,000
2,000 Transportation and warehousing 0.05 0.05 0.05
0 Wholesale and retail trade 0.15 0.16 0.15
2,000 Personal services 0.13 0.13 0.13
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Non-commercial services 0.24 0.25 0.20
Chart 7 Chart 8
Housing Starts Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
f = forecast f = forecast
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
Quebec
Summary
Quebecs economy will grow 2.8 per cent this year, but growth will ease in the
next two years.
There will be little slack in labour markets; the unemployment rate will average
less than 6 per cent over the next four years.
Employment growth will boost household income and lift consumer spending.
QUEBEC
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Investments by Crown corporations will provide
alift to the investment outlook this year and next.
1.7 2.8 1.7 1.6
i
The trade deficit (exports minus imports) will
Credit Quality
widen this year but recede in 2018.
A+
Source: Standard & Poors.
Forecast Risk
h
The recent record-low unemployment rate could
encourage more people to join the labour force,
helping to increase labour supply and thus
potential economic growth.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 309,852 313,676 319,012 327,885 334,330 340,858 345,866 350,734
(2007 $ millions) 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.8 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.4
Total employment (000s) 4,057 4,097 4,136 4,208 4,256 4,301 4,324 4,342
0.1 1.0 0.9 1.8 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.4
Unemployment rate (per cent) 7.8 7.7 7.0 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.9
Personal income per capita ($) 39,848 40,950 42,104 43,304 44,574 45,813 46,904 47,978
Population (000s) 8,205 8,255 8,317 8,381 8,445 8,511 8,576 8,641
0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Single-family housing starts (000s) 11.2 9.7 10.7 12.9 14.3 13.6 13.3 12.6
Multi-family housing starts (000s) 27.6 28.2 28.2 29.9 24.7 24.1 23.7 22.8
Retail sales ($ millions) 109,622 111,556 118,487 124,020 126,610 129,207 131,412 133,230
2.4 1.8 6.2 4.7 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.4
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.234 1.247 1.256 1.273 1.299 1.325 1.353 1.381
1.4 1.1 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1
Chart 1
Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0)
Quebec Canada
Forecast
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
f = forecast
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
In other good news, business investment finally turned around last year and is
expected to remain on a solid growth path this year. Yet much of this investment
spending will stem from government-owned corporations, such as the Caisse
dedpt et placement du Qubec with its light-rail project in Montral.
Unfortunately, trade remains Quebecs weak point. Key sectors like forestry
are still weighing on exports, and uncertainty surrounds the negotiations of the
new North American Free Trade Agreement. Aerospace products could behard
hit if the recent U.S. Department of Commerce anti-dumping ruling against
Bombardier is upheld. In better news, though, aluminum exports should pick
upin 2018.
Finally, residential investment is looking up, as housing starts are in line to hit
a five-year high in 2017, supported by a buzzing labour market. Even though
new housing construction is expected to fall from 2018 to 2021, a healthy resale
market will keep residential investment above water.
Chart 2
Industry Outlook, 201721
(average annual compound growth rate)
Summary
Real GDP in Qubec City is set to increase by 2.9per cent this year and 2.0per
cent in 2018.
After a temporary setback last year, employment is set to bounce back with a
1.6per cent advance this year.
Housing starts came in strong during the first half of the year, and we expect
about 4,850 starts for the year, a 1.9per cent increase over 2016.
QUBEC CITY
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Manufacturing output growth is set to reach
a12year high in 2017.
1.5 2.9 1.8 1.6
i
LePhare de Qubec has been delayed again.
i
Homeownership 0.54 Although healthy income gains bode well for
consumer spending this year, high debt levels
Rental 0.84
and interest rate hikes could hinder household
consumption more than expected in the
mediumterm.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 33,677 33,980 34,491 35,475 36,176 36,883 37,475 38,050
(2007 $ millions) 1.0 0.9 1.5 2.9 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.5
Total employment (000s) 434 443 439 446 454 460 465 469
1.2 2.1 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.8
Unemployment rate (per cent) 5.4 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4
Personal income per capita ($) 44,177 45,268 45,715 46,577 48,047 49,335 50,562 51,762
2.4 2.5 1.0 1.9 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.4
Population (000s) 797 801 807 814 821 828 835 843
0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8
Total housing starts 4,449 5,442 4,766 4,854 4,239 4,191 4,108 4,005
Retail sales ($ millions) 13,499 13,697 14,288 14,845 15,158 15,469 15,754 15,992
2.4 1.5 4.3 3.9 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.5
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.235 1.247 1.255 1.273 1.298 1.325 1.352 1.380
1.3 1.0 0.6 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1
inat 1.5 per cent. Fortunately, aggregate services output has picked up this
year and is on track to rise by 2.7per cent. Another solid expansion of 2.0per
cent is our call for 2018. The services sectors outlook is key for Qubec City
itaccounts for 82per cent of total economic output, 10percentage points above
the provincial average.
The finance, insurance, and real estate industry, the metro areas largest,
underperformed over 201416, recording average annual output growth of just
1.2per cent. Fortunately, the industry has stepped things up this year. In fact,
a 3.0per cent output expansion is in the cards, with an increase in real estate
activity, including a steady new housing market, fuelling growth in the sector.
The metropolitan area also remains an insurance company hub in the country.
Finance, insurance, and real estate output growth is projected to come in at a
slower but still solid 2.4per cent in 2018.
This years growth is coming from both the residential and non-residential
sectors. Housing starts are on track to climb modestly from 4,770 units in 2016
to 4,850 units in 2017, with the increase coming mostly from the multi-family
sector. However, residential constructions outlook is not as bright over the
rest of the forecast period. Indeed, housing starts are expected to fall in each
year, inline with an aging population, rising interest rates, and deleveraging
consumers. LePhare de Qubeca $650-million four-tower mixed-use project
including a hotel, concert hall, and public spacewould offer a helping hand
to the sector, but construction has faced multiple delays and the project is no
longer expected to start this year.
Several projects currently under way on the private non-residential side are
alsobolstering construction output growth. These include a new $1.9-billion
hospital complex and the construction of the new Ikea and its surrounding
retail space. There is also upside risk to our non-residential investment outlook
stemming from the Beauport 2020 project that would expand Qubec Citys port.
The project is currently undergoing environmental assessments.
Finally, the public sector will also contribute to non-residential construction, with
projects such as the widening and refurbishment of the HenriIV highway, valued
somewhere between $400million and $500million. Qubec Citys three-year
infrastructure plan will also support growth.
Manufacturing to Lead
Following rapid output growth of 5.0per cent in 2014 and 2.5per cent in 2015,
output in Qubec Citys manufacturing industry decelerated sharply last year
to an unimpressive rate of 1.0per cent. However, this slowdown has proved
to be short-lived, as the industry is on track to post a whopping 5.1per cent
increase this year, the largest gain in 12years. Not only is the weaker Canadian
dollar fuelling growth in this export-oriented sector, but investments to upgrade
capacity, automate processes, and diversify product offerings also seem to
be paying off. Indeed, local firms in subsectors such as medical supplies
manufacturing and electronic product manufacturing have recently boosted
theirproduction. What is more, local steel manufacturers continue to benefit
from the construction of Montrals Champlain Bridge. An output gain of 2.5per
cent, close to the industrys long-term average, is our call for 2018.
QUBEC CITY
Chart 1 Chart 2
Employment Outlook GDP Outlook
Fin., ins., & real est. 26.7 3.1 Fin., ins., & real est. 3.0 2.1
Information & cultural 51.8 11.9 Information & cultural 1.4 0.9
Trans. & ware. 90.6 9.6 Trans. & ware. 3.1 1.7
Wholesale & retail 10.4 3.3 Wholesale & retail 4.3 2.3
80 40 0 40 80 120 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3
Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
METROPOLITAN OUTLOOK 1
Economic Insights Into 13 Canadian EconomiesAutumn2017
QUBEC CITY
Table 1 Table 2
Sectoral Employment Dominant Industries, 2016
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
Total employment 433.6 442.7 438.6 445.5 454.2 460.5 465.3 469.2 44114543 Retail trade 58.0
1.2 2.1 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.8
9120 Provincial government 37.1
Goods sector 60.2 65.2 59.0 56.8 62.2 62.7 63.0 63.2
6220 Hospitals 30.6
4.5 8.3 9.5 3.7 9.6 0.7 0.5 0.3
231129 Construction 22.5
Manufacturing 31.3 33.8 31.0 30.9 33.6 33.3 33.6 33.9
9.9 8.2 8.5 0.2 8.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 611217 Post-secondary education 18.4
Construction 23.4 25.9 22.5 22.0 23.9 24.5 24.6 24.6 624144 Social assistance 16.8
6.5 10.6 13.0 2.3 9.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 411191 Wholesale trade 15.0
Primary and utilities 5.6 5.5 5.5 3.9 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 6111 Primary and secondary schools 14.9
32.7 0.9 0.5 29.0 19.0 3.6 0.6 0.9
5511, 561112, Other management and 14.6
Services sector 373.3 377.5 379.6 388.7 391.9 397.8 402.3 405.9 561517, 5619, administrative services
0.7 1.1 0.6 2.4 0.8 1.5 1.1 0.9 562129
Transportation and warehousing 14.4 13.1 9.8 18.6 12.9 12.4 12.4 12.4 621119 Ambulatory health care services 14.2
22.1 8.9 25.4 90.6 30.7 3.5 0.1 0.3
*North American Industrial Classification System
Information and cultural industries 6.5 5.5 7.8 3.8 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.9 Source: Statistics Canada.
14.0 15.7 41.5 51.8 64.2 3.1 0.7 0.8
Wholesale and retail trade 61.7 64.9 73.0 65.4 70.7 72.7 73.6 74.5
0.2 5.2 12.6 10.4 8.1 2.9 1.2 1.1
Chart 3
Finance, insurance, and real estate 31.6 32.3 28.0 35.5 31.6 31.6 31.4 31.4
Employment Market Variability
0.1 2.1 13.0 26.7 11.0 0.1 0.5 0.3
Business services 54.4 53.3 48.7 55.4 53.1 53.7 54.4 54.9 Fluctuations Compared to Canada
4.8 2.0 8.7 13.8 4.2 1.1 1.4 1.0
Personal services 60.6 56.4 58.8 60.1 61.3 63.0 64.0 64.8 Qubec City 286
8.5 6.9 4.3 2.3 2.0 2.6 1.6 1.3
Canada 100
Non-commercial services 98.2 105.2 103.4 97.8 107.3 109.4 111.7 113.8
3.5 7.2 1.7 5.4 9.7 2.0 2.1 1.8 0 100 200 300
Public administration 46.0 46.9 50.1 52.1 48.8 49.0 48.7 48.3
5.9 1.8 7.0 4.0 6.3 0.4 0.7 0.9
No link to
Shaded area represents forecast data; italics indicate percentage change. Canada 39%
First line of employment data is in thousands and second line is percentage change.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Link to Canada 61%
QUBEC CITY
Table 3 Table 4
Construction, Commercial Real Estate, and Income Overview Real Estate
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 1,558,738 1,741,269 1,710,088 1,686,712 1,697,118 1,764,383 1,484,093 1,406,373 1,575,673 New housing market (2016)
Residential 901,273 1,090,972 1,181,583 1,095,656 1,163,707 929,440 1,016,958 943,045 1,092,381 Single-detached absorptions 198
Growth 58.1%
Non-residential 657,465 650,297 528,505 591,056 533,411 834,943 467,135 463,328 483,292
Average price of absorbed single-detached units $383,914
Industrial 120,633 46,150 98,176 93,967 70,680 103,362 47,663 62,102 87,734
Growth 2.1%
Commercial 398,054 499,143 306,572 422,525 358,626 562,365 322,468 274,311 268,394
Resale housing market (2016)
Public admin. 138,778 105,004 123,757 74,564 104,105 169,216 97,004 126,915 127,164
and non-comm. Unit sales 6,722
Growth 1.6%
Office sector*
Average price $265,009
No. of square feet n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Growth 0.1%
(000s)
Percentage change n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Apartment market (October 2016)
Vacancy rate (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Two-bedroom vacancy rate 5.4%
Average two-bedroom rent $823
Employment (000s) 131 126 137 138 140 140 139 138 135
Percentage change 7.2 3.1 8.5 0.9 1.4 0.2 1.1 0.4 2.4 Sources:CMHC Housing Time Series Database; Canadian Real Estate
Association.
Bankruptcies
Consumer 2,123 2,469 1,956 1,792 1,755 1,867 1,748 1,926 1,919
Business 185 126 124 126 113 131 147 135 146
Chart 5
*Information and cultural services; finance, insurance, and real estate; business services; and public administration. Economic Structure, 2016
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; Industry Canada; CBRE.
Chart 4
Highly diverse = 1
Personal Income Per Capita, 2016 Not diverse = 0
($ 000s) Qubec City
0.68
Canada 46.2
Quebec 42.1
QUBEC CITY
Chart 6 Table 5
Sources of Migration Comparative Employment, 2016
(share of total employment)
International Interprovincial Intercity
Forecast
Sector Qubec City Quebec Canada
8,000
Industrial 0.13 0.20 0.21
6,000
Office 0.31 0.25 0.25
4,000
2,000 Transportation and warehousing 0.02 0.05 0.05
0 Wholesale and retail trade 0.17 0.16 0.15
2,000 Personal services 0.13 0.13 0.13
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Non-commercial services 0.24 0.21 0.20
Chart 7 Chart 8
Housing Starts Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
f = forecast f = forecast
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
Montral
Summary
Real GDP growth in Montral is on track to hit 3.2per cent this year, its fastest
annual expansion since the turn of the century.
MONTRAL
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 A higher number of housing starts this year
and next will contribute to strong growth in
1.8 3.2 1.8 1.8
theconstruction industry.
Out of 13 CMAs #7 #6 #11 #10
h
The unemployment rate is poised to hit a record
low of 6.6per cent this year.
Credit Quality AA
Source: Standard & Poors.
2016
i
NAFTA renegotiations present some downside
Homeownership 0.76 risks to our forecast. New duties or restrictions
totrade could hurt the local economy.
Rental 0.82
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 164,555 166,863 169,931 175,327 178,810 182,298 185,405 188,438
(2007 $ millions) 1.3 1.4 1.8 3.2 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.6
Total employment (000s) 2,018 2,040 2,073 2,139 2,140 2,170 2,189 2,204
0.5 1.1 1.6 3.2 0.1 1.4 0.9 0.7
Unemployment rate (per cent) 8.2 8.5 7.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.5
Personal income per capita ($) 40,972 42,247 43,255 44,793 45,745 46,957 48,083 49,196
2.7 3.1 2.4 3.6 2.1 2.6 2.4 2.3
Population (000s) 4,019 4,050 4,094 4,138 4,178 4,219 4,260 4,300
1.0 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9
Total housing starts 18,672 18,744 17,834 19,674 18,961 18,648 17,912 17,429
Retail sales ($ millions) 49,703 50,853 53,030 54,870 56,028 57,176 58,286 59,226
2.6 2.3 4.3 3.5 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.6
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.232 1.249 1.259 1.277 1.304 1.331 1.358 1.386
1.5 1.4 0.8 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1
Adding to the renewed strength in the goods sector, the services side of the
economy is on track to post faster growth in 2017. The transportation and
warehousing industryclosely linked to the ups and downs of manufacturing
and construction activityis poised to lead the pack with a 6.7per cent GDP
advance this year, its third consecutive expansion above 6.0 per cent.
A Skyline of Cranes
After struggling in recent years, Montrals construction industry appears to
have turned a corner. Indeed, last year employment in the industry advanced
by a solid 5.1 per cent and output expanded for the first time since 2012. This
year isshaping up to be even better, as housing starts in the metropolitan area
are on track to hit a five-year high and non-residential construction activity
continues to fire on all cylinders, thanks to contributions from both private and
public investment. Overall, output in the construction industry is forecast to climb
by3.1per cent in 2017 and 2.1per cent next year.
Public investment will remain a key engine of growth for the industry this year
and next as work on massive infrastructure projects ramps up. Significant work
has already been completed this year on the western and eastern approaches
of the new Champlain Bridge, which are scheduled to be finalized next summer.
The cable-stayed section of the bridge is also on track to be completed before
the end of next year. Other projects making headway include the $3.7-billion
Turcot Interchange, the covering of the Ville-Marie Expressway, and the Dorval
Interchange redesign, the last two being scheduled for completion before
the end of the year. Looking ahead, provincial and federal funding has been
committed for Montrals $6-billion light-rail transit (LRT) project. Although
construction is scheduled to begin before the end of this year, delays are
possible, as the project has received push-back from a coalition of activists,
residents, and unions. Nonetheless, we expect the economic effects of the
project to be felt within a few years.
Private non-residential investment will also support growth over the forecast
period. Notable projects include construction of a $1.5-billion mixed-use property
dubbed Solar Uniquartier on Montrals South Shorescheduled for completion
in 2027and Bells $854-million commitment to expand its communications
infrastructure and bring broadband fibre network access to 1.1million residences
and business locations by 2022.
Finally, residential construction has been healthy this year, and this trend
is expected to continue over the near term. The positive employment and
economic outlook is likely behind a decrease in multi-family inventories
and a tightening of the resale market, both of which are encouraging new
home construction. All in all, we expect housing starts to come in at almost
19,700units this year, the highest level since 2012. Next year looks almost as
good, although a gradual increase in interest rates should dampen demand
slightly. About 19,000 housing starts are anticipated in 2018.
However, the industry has finally started showing signs of life this year, as output
growth is poised to reach 4.0 per cent as a result of strength in sectors such
aspharmaceutical manufacturing and automation equipment manufacturing.
Yetthe outlook of the aerospace products and parts manufacturing sectora key
one in the metropolitan areacould be jeopardized by a 220 per cent punitive
duty imposed on Bombardiers jets by the U.S. Department of Commerce. The
companys C Series jets were garnering international attention earlier this year
thanks to better-than-expected performances. If this ruling is upheld, it could put
the $5.6-billion deal with Delta at risk.
Manufacturing output growth is expected to continue next year and over the
rest of the forecast, but at much more moderate rates; output is projected to
climb by 2.0per cent in 2018. Despite the positive outlook, a dark cloud looms
on the horizon as NAFTA negotiations continue. New trade barriers would hurt
Montrals export-oriented manufacturing sector.
Transportation and warehousing services will lead the pack over 201718 as
the industry continues to benefit from the turnaround in the goods-producing
industries; the demand for rail, air, and road transportation is being fuelled by
increasing manufacturing and construction activity. Sightseeing and transit
transportation services will also contribute to growth this year, thanks to
strong tourism activity in the metropolitan area tied to the citys 375th birthday
celebrations. New maritime shipping routes between Montral and European
portsresulting from the provisional implementation of the Comprehensive
Economic and Trade Agreement between Canada and the EUwill also
contribute to growth. All in all, the industry is in line to post output growth
of6.7per cent this year and 2.2per cent in 2018.
The finance, insurance, and real estate industry in Montral will also stay on
a healthy growth path. The areas vibrant financial sector, as well as higher
demand for real estate services (courtesy of a better housing market outlook),
will contribute to this years 4.2per cent expansion. A slower but still solid
2.6per cent output gain is on tap for 2018.
Finally, we expect business services to advance by 3.4per cent this year and
2.5per cent next year. The positive economic outlook across the economy will
foster firms demand for essential inputs such as engineering, legal, accounting,
management, and administrative services.
MONTRAL
Chart 1 Chart 2
Employment Outlook GDP Outlook
Fin., ins., & real est. 4.3 0.7 Fin., ins., & real est. 4.2 2.5
Information & cultural 9.1 2.2 Information & cultural 0.8 0.1
Trans. & ware. 3.9 1.7 Trans. & ware. 6.7 2.0
Wholesale & retail 6.8 0.1 Wholesale & retail 3.2 1.7
5 0 5 10 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 2 3
Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
METROPOLITAN OUTLOOK 1
Economic Insights Into 13 Canadian EconomiesAutumn2017
MONTRAL
Table 1 Table 2
Sectoral Employment Dominant Industries, 2016
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
Total employment 2,018.4 2,040.3 2,072.8 2,139.2 2,140.4 2,169.5 2,188.6 2,204.0 44114543 Retail trade 246.4
0.5 1.1 1.6 3.2 0.1 1.4 0.9 0.7
722124 Food and beverage services 127.5
Goods sector 356.0 342.1 344.5 355.4 365.6 361.2 361.1 360.5
231129 Construction 101.4
4.2 3.9 0.7 3.2 2.9 1.2 0.0 0.2
6220 Hospitals 100.7
Manufacturing 224.1 226.6 224.2 225.9 238.2 232.5 231.9 230.9
0.6 1.1 1.1 0.7 5.5 2.4 0.3 0.4 411191 Wholesale trade 94.9
Construction 106.7 96.4 101.3 109.5 111.2 111.7 112.3 112.7 6111 Primary and secondary schools 76.7
9.7 9.7 5.1 8.0 1.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 624144 Social assistance 76.3
Primary and utilities 25.1 19.1 18.9 20.1 16.1 17.0 17.0 16.9 5511, 561112, Other management and 74.8
9.8 24.0 0.8 6.0 19.8 5.6 0.3 0.6 561517, 5619, administrative services
562129
Services sector 1,662.4 1,698.3 1,728.3 1,783.8 1,774.8 1,808.4 1,827.5 1,843.5
0.3 2.2 1.8 3.2 0.5 1.9 1.1 0.9 5211, 522123, Finance 70.8
523139
Transportation and warehousing 97.1 110.0 116.9 112.3 116.7 119.0 119.8 120.1
5.5 13.3 6.3 3.9 3.9 2.0 0.6 0.3 611217 Post-secondary education 66.1
Information and cultural industries 64.1 60.2 58.8 64.1 60.9 60.1 59.5 58.7 *North American Industrial Classification System
1.2 6.0 2.4 9.1 5.0 1.3 1.1 1.3 Source: Statistics Canada.
Wholesale and retail trade 337.6 340.0 341.7 365.0 350.8 358.1 360.8 363.1
1.5 0.7 0.5 6.8 3.9 2.1 0.7 0.7
Finance, insurance, and real estate 134.5 129.3 133.5 139.2 137.7 141.6 142.2 143.1 Chart 3
3.1 3.8 3.2 4.3 1.1 2.8 0.4 0.6 Employment Market Variability
Business services 267.2 303.5 305.3 314.7 311.3 319.5 324.2 328.3
3.0 13.6 0.6 3.1 1.1 2.6 1.5 1.3 Fluctuations Compared to Canada
Personal services 269.9 266.7 280.5 274.4 284.7 292.7 297.9 302.3
1.7 1.2 5.2 2.2 3.8 2.8 1.8 1.5 Montral 153
Non-commercial services 412.0 405.0 412.5 434.1 440.6 442.9 448.9 453.6 Canada 100
0.0 1.7 1.8 5.2 1.5 0.5 1.3 1.0
Public administration 80.0 83.5 79.1 80.0 72.0 74.4 74.3 74.2 0 50 100 150 200
8.3 4.4 5.2 1.1 10.0 3.3 0.1 0.2
Shaded area represents forecast data; italics indicate percentage change. No link to
First line of employment data is in thousands and second line is percentage change. Canada 22%
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Link to Canada 78%
MONTRAL
Table 3 Table 4
Construction, Commercial Real Estate, and Income Overview Real Estate
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 6,442,007 5,792,087 6,567,155 7,858,141 7,833,398 7,664,210 8,975,130 6,956,865 7,402,984 Downtown office market (2016Q4)
Residential 4,252,440 3,728,446 4,481,964 4,958,149 4,786,558 4,212,463 4,116,407 4,034,727 4,358,892 Class A vacancy rate 10.6%
Average Class A net rent ($/sq. ft.) $21.21
Non-residential 2,189,567 2,063,641 2,085,191 2,899,992 3,046,840 3,451,747 4,858,723 2,922,138 3,044,092
Suburban office market (2016Q4)
Industrial 331,268 271,462 261,850 328,509 523,218 428,381 632,201 412,723 387,213
Class A vacancy rate 18.4%
Commercial 1,388,189 1,172,757 1,160,405 1,984,942 1,743,633 1,818,148 1,579,552 1,657,754 1,600,843
Average Class A net rent ($/sq. ft.) $15.63
Public admin. 470,110 619,422 662,936 586,541 779,989 1,205,218 2,646,970 851,661 1,056,036
and non-comm. Industrial market (2016Q4)
Employment (000s) 521 531 555 527 548 545 546 577 577 Sources: CMHC Housing Time Series Database: The Quebec Federation of Real
Percentage change 1.9 1.9 4.5 5.0 4.0 0.6 0.2 5.7 0.0 Estate Boards.
Bankruptcies
Consumer 13,909 16,770 14,246 12,833 12,003 11,930 11,055 10,764 10,178
Business 1,137 1,095 875 902 873 905 887 831 819
Chart 5
Economic Structure, 2016
*Information and cultural services; finance, insurance, and real estate; business services; and public administration.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; Industry Canada; CBRE.
Canada 46.2
Quebec 42.1
Montral 43.3
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
MONTRAL
Chart 6 Table 5
Sources of Migration Comparative Employment, 2016
(share of total employment)
International Interprovincial Intercity
Forecast
Sector Montral Quebec Canada
50,000
Industrial 0.17 0.20 0.21
Chart 7 Chart 8
Housing Starts Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
f = forecast f = forecast
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
Qubec (franais)
Rsum du chapitre
QUBEC
h
2016 2017 2018-2021 2012-2021 Les investissements des socits dtat
amlioreront les perspectives dinvestissement
1,7 2,8 1,7 1,6
cette anne et lan prochain.
Les prvisions sont indiques en ombr.
i
Le dficit commercial (exportations moins
Qualit du crdit
importations) se creusera cette anne,
A+ maisdiminuera en 2018.
Risque conjoncturel
h
Encourags par un taux de chmage
historiquement bas, plus de gens pourraient
sejoindre la population active, ce qui
aiderait accrotre loffre de travailleurs et,
parconsquent, la production potentielle.
Indicateurs conomiques
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
PIB rel au prix de base 309 852 313 676 319 012 327 885 334 330 340 858 345 866 350 734
(M$ de 2007) 1,2 1,2 1,7 2,8 2,0 2,0 1,5 1,4
Nombre total demplois (milliers) 4 057 4 097 4 136 4 208 4 256 4 301 4 324 4 342
0,1 1,0 0,9 1,8 1,1 1,1 0,6 0,4
Taux de chmage (%) 7,8 7,7 7,0 6,3 6,0 5,8 5,8 5,9
Revenu personnel par habitant ($) 39 848 40 950 42 104 43 304 44 574 45 813 46 904 47 978
Population (milliers) 8 205 8 255 8 317 8 381 8 445 8 511 8 576 8 641
0,7 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,8
Mises en chantier 11,2 9,7 10,7 12,9 14,3 13,6 13,3 12,6
logements individuels (milliers)
Mises en chantier 27,6 28,2 28,2 29,9 24,7 24,1 23,7 22,8
logements collectifs (milliers)
Ventes au dtail (M$) 109 622 111 556 118 487 124 020 126 610 129 207 131 412 133 230
2,4 1,8 6,2 4,7 2,1 2,1 1,7 1,4
IPC (2002 = 1,0) 1,234 1,247 1,256 1,273 1,299 1,325 1,353 1,381
1,4 1,1 0,7 1,4 2,0 2,0 2,1 2,1
Graphique 2
Lemploi en perspective
(2011 = 1,0)
Qubec Canada
Prvision
1,2
1,1
1,0
0,9
0,8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17p 18p 19p 20p 21p
p = prvision
Sources : Statistique Canada; Le Conference Board du Canada.
Graphique 2
Perspectives sectorielles, 2017-2021
(taux de croissance annuelle moyen compos)
Rsum du chapitre
VILLE DE QUBEC
Sur 13 RMR No 9 No 10 No 12 No 12
i
Les travaux duPhare de Qubec sont
Les prvisions sont indiques en ombr. denouveaureports.
i
De solides augmentations de revenu sont de bon
2016
augure pour les dpenses de consommation cette
Accession la proprit 0,54 anne, mais le fort endettement des mnages et
le relvement des taux dintrt risquent de freiner
Location 0,84
la consommation plus que prvu moyen terme.
Indicateurs conomiques
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
PIB rel au prix de base 33 677 33 980 34 491 35 475 36 176 36 883 37 475 38 050
(M$ de 2007) 1,0 0,9 1,5 2,9 2,0 2,0 1,6 1,5
Nombre total demplois (milliers) 434 443 439 446 454 460 465 469
1,2 2,1 0,9 1,6 1,9 1,4 1,0 0,8
Taux de chmage (%) 5,4 4,7 4,6 4,4 4,4 4,3 4,3 4,4
Revenu personnel par habitant ($) 44 177 45 268 45 715 46 577 48 047 49 335 50 562 51 762
2,4 2,5 1,0 1,9 3,2 2,7 2,5 2,4
Population (milliers) 797 801 807 814 821 828 835 843
0,8 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,8
Mises en chantier 4 449 5 442 4 766 4 854 4 239 4 191 4 108 4 005
Ventes au dtail (M$) 13 499 13 697 14 288 14 845 15 158 15 469 15 754 15 992
2,4 1,5 4,3 3,9 2,1 2,1 1,8 1,5
IPC (2002 = 1,0) 1,235 1,247 1,255 1,273 1,298 1,325 1,352 1,380
1,3 1,0 0,6 1,4 2,0 2,0 2,1 2,1
Dans les services, lemploi devrait progresser de 2,4% et le PIB rel de 2,7%
cette anne. Les secteurs qui se portent particulirement bien sont ceux du
transport et de lentreposage; du commerce de gros et de dtail; de la finance,
des assurances et de limmobilier; et des services personnels. De fait, tous ces
secteurs devraient afficher une croissance du PIB rel de 3% ou plus cette
anne. La vigueur du secteur des biens, les bonnes perspectives de lemploi,
lalgre reprise des mises en chantier de logements et de lactivit sur le
march rsidentiel, et le dynamisme du secteur du tourisme sont les moteurs
derrire le succs de ces industries.
Pour ce qui est du march du travail, lemploi devrait progresser de 1,6% cette
anne, aprs un recul inhabituel de 0,9% en 2016 qui tait aussi la plus forte
contraction depuis 1999. Une augmentation plus lente de la population active
vaudra Qubec un taux de chmage 4,4% cette anne et lan prochain,
cequi donne penser que lconomie locale est en situation de plein emploi,
mais rveille aussi des craintes de pnuries de main-duvre.
Le secteur des services personnels, qui sest toujours bien port Qubec,
devrait afficher une croissance de 3,3% cette anne et de 2,2% lan prochain.
Ce secteur qui comprend la restauration et les services dhbergement, ainsi
que les arts, les spectacles et les loisirs continue de profiter de la bonne
sant du secteur du tourisme, qui profite quant lui de la faiblesse du dollar
canadien. Bien quune lgre apprciation du huard pourrait freiner quelque
peu la performance du secteur, Qubec reste une destination de choix pour
lesvoyageurs canadiens et trangers.
reste aussi un ple pour les compagnies dassurance dans le pays. En 2018,
lafinance, les assurances et limmobilier devraient afficher une croissance
moindre mais encore solide, soit 2,4%.
La fabrication en tte
Aprs une croissance de 5% en 2014 et de 2,5% en 2015, la production
dusecteur manufacturier de Qubec a nettement ralenti en 2016 et est
retombe 1%. Cependant, cette baisse na pas dur, puisque le secteur
devrait afficher une croissance de 5,1% cette anne, soit la plus importante
en12ans. Non seulement la faiblesse du dollar canadien alimente la croissance
de ce secteur exportateur, mais les investissements consentis pour augmenter
les capacits, automatiser les procds et diversifier loffre de produits semblent
payer. En fait, des entreprises locales dans des sous-secteurs comme celui
de la fabrication de fournitures mdicales ou de produits lectroniques ont
augment leur production dernirement. Qui plus est, les aciries locales
continuent de profiter de la construction du pont Champlain de Montral.
Nousprvoyons pour 2018 une croissance de 2,5%, ce qui est proche
delamoyenne long terme de lindustrie.
VILLE DE QUBEC
Graphique 1 Graphique 2
Perspectives demploi Prvisions relatives au PIB
Fin., ass. et immob. 26,7 3,1 Fin., ass. et immob. 3,0 2,1
80 40 0 40 80 120 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3
VILLE DE QUBEC
Tableau 1 Tableau 2
Emplois par secteur Principales industries, 2016
(milliers)
Employs
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Classe* Industrie (milliers)
Nombre total demplois 433,6 442,7 438,6 445,5 454,2 460,5 465,3 469,2 4411-4543 Commerce de dtail 58,0
1,2 2,1 0,9 1,6 1,9 1,4 1,0 0,8
9120 Gouvernement provincial 37,1
Secteur des biens 60,2 65,2 59,0 56,8 62,2 62,7 63,0 63,2
6220 Hpitaux 30,6
4,5 8,3 9,5 3,7 9,6 0,7 0,5 0,3
2311-2329 Construction 22,5
Fabrication 31,3 33,8 31,0 30,9 33,6 33,3 33,6 33,9
9,9 8,2 8,5 0,2 8,8 0,8 0,9 0,8 6112-6117 Services denseignement postsecondaire 18,4
Construction 23,4 25,9 22,5 22,0 23,9 24,5 24,6 24,6 6241-6244 Assistance sociale 16,8
6,5 10,6 13,0 2,3 9,0 2,4 0,3 0,0 4111-4191 Commerce de gros 15,0
Industrie primaire et services publics 5,6 5,5 5,5 3,9 4,7 4,8 4,8 4,8 6111 coles primaires et secondaires 14,9
32,7 0,9 0,5 29,0 19,0 3,6 0,6 0,9
5511, 5611-5612, Autres serv. de gestion et admin. 14,6
Secteur des services 373,3 377,5 379,6 388,7 391,9 397,8 402,3 405,9 5615-5617, 5619,
0,7 1,1 0,6 2,4 0,8 1,5 1,1 0,9 5621-5629
Transports et entreposage 14,4 13,1 9,8 18,6 12,9 12,4 12,4 12,4 6211-6219 Serv. de soins ambulat. 14,2
22,1 8,9 25,4 90,6 30,7 3,5 0,1 0,3
*Systme de classification des industries de lAmrique du Nord
Industrie de linformation et 6,5 5,5 7,8 3,8 6,2 6,0 5,9 5,9 Source : Statistique Canada.
industrie culturelle 14,0 15,7 41,5 51,8 64,2 3,1 0,7 0,8
Commerce de gros et de dtail 61,7 64,9 73,0 65,4 70,7 72,7 73,6 74,5
0,2 5,2 12,6 10,4 8,1 2,9 1,2 1,1
Graphique 3
Finance, assurances et immobilier 31,6 32,3 28,0 35,5 31,6 31,6 31,4 31,4
Variabilit du march de lemploi
0,1 2,1 13,0 26,7 11,0 0,1 0,5 0,3
Services aux entreprises 54,4 53,3 48,7 55,4 53,1 53,7 54,4 54,9
Fluctuations Comparativement au Canada
4,8 2,0 8,7 13,8 4,2 1,1 1,4 1,0
Services personnels 60,6 56,4 58,8 60,1 61,3 63,0 64,0 64,8
Ville de Qubec 286
8,5 6,9 4,3 2,3 2,0 2,6 1,6 1,3
Canada 100
Services non commerciaux 98,2 105,2 103,4 97,8 107,3 109,4 111,7 113,8
3,5 7,2 1,7 5,4 9,7 2,0 2,1 1,8
0 100 200 300
Administration publique 46,0 46,9 50,1 52,1 48,8 49,0 48,7 48,3
5,9 1,8 7,0 4,0 6,3 0,4 0,7 0,9
Non lies au
Les prvisions sont indiques en ombr. Canada 39 %
Les donnes sur lemploi figurant sur la premire ligne sont exprimes en milliers; la deuxime ligne reflte la variation en pourcentage.
Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Statistique Canada. Lies au Canada 61 %
VILLE DE QUBEC
Tableau 3 Tableau 4
Construction, immobilier commercial et revenus Aperu Immobilier
Permis de construire
(milliers $) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 1 558 738 1 741 269 1 710 088 1 686 712 1 697 118 1 764 383 1 484 093 1 406 373 1 575 673 March du logement neuf (2016)
Rsidentiel 901 273 1 090 972 1 181 583 1 095 656 1 163 707 929 440 1 016 958 943 045 1 092 381 Nombre total de logements unifamiliaux couls 198
Croissance 58,1 %
Non rsidentiel 657 465 650 297 528 505 591 056 533 411 834 943 467 135 463 328 483 292
Prix moyen des units unifamiliales coules 383 914 $
Industriel 120 633 46 150 98 176 93 967 70 680 103 362 47 663 62 102 87 734
Croissance 2,1 %
Commercial 398 054 499 143 306 572 422 525 358 626 562 365 322 468 274 311 268 394
March de la revente (2016)
Admin publique 138 778 105 004 123 757 74 564 104 105 169 216 97 004 126 915 127 164
et non comm. Ventes dunits 6 722
Croissance 1,6 %
Secteur des bureaux*
Prix moyen 265 009 $
Nbre de pieds carrs s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. Croissance 0,1 %
(milliers)
Variation en % s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. March des appartements (octobre 2016)
Taux dinoccupation (%) s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. Taux dinoccupation des appartements deux chambres 5,4 %
Loyer moyen dun appartement deux chambres 823 $
Emplois (milliers) 131 126 137 138 140 140 139 138 135
Variation en % 7,2 3,1 8,5 0,9 1,4 0,2 1,1 0,4 2,4 Sources : Sries chronologiques sur le march de lhabitation de la SCHL;
Fdration des chambres immobilires du Qubec.
Faillites
Particuliers 2 123 2 469 1 956 1 792 1 755 1 867 1 748 1 926 1 919
Entreprises 185 126 124 126 113 131 147 135 146
Graphique 5
*Industrie de linformation et industrie culturelle; finance, assurances et immobilier; services aux entreprises et administration publique. Structure conomique, 2016
Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Statistique Canada; Industrie Canada; CBRE.
Trs diversifie = 1
Graphique 4 Non diversifie = 0
Revenu personnel par habitant, 2016
Ville de
(milliers $)
Qubec
0,68
Canada 46,2
Qubec 42,1
VILLE DE QUBEC
Graphique 6 Tableau 5
Sources de migration Tableau comparatif de lemploi, 2016
(part du nombre total demplois)
Internationale Interprovinciale Interurbaine
Prvision
Secteur Ville de Qubec Qubec Canada
8 000
Industriel 0,13 0,20 0,21
6 000
Bureaux 0,31 0,25 0,25
4 000
2 000 Transports et entreposage 0,02 0,05 0,05
0 Commerce de gros et de dtail 0,17 0,16 0,15
2 000 Services personnels 0,13 0,13 0,13
2014 15 16 17p 18p 19p 20p 21p
Services non commerciaux 0,24 0,21 0,20
Graphique 7 Graphique 8
Mises en chantier Lemploi en perspective
(2011 = 1,0) (2011 = 1,0)
p = prvision p = prvision
Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Sries chronologiques sur le march de lhabitation de la SCHL. Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Statistique Canada.
Montral (franais)
Rsum du chapitre
La croissance du PIB rel Montral est en voie datteindre 3,2% cette anne,
sa plus forte expansion annuelle depuis le tournant du sicle.
MONTRAL
Sur 13 RMR No 7 No 6 No 11 No 10
h
Le taux de chmage devrait atteindre un creux
Les prvisions sont indiques en ombr. record de 6,6% cette anne.
Qualit du crdit AA
Source : Standard & Poors.
Risque conjoncturel
Cot relatif du logement
i
(par rapport la moyenne nationale) Les rengociations de lALNA posent un risque
nos prvisions. De nouveaux droits de douanes
2016 ou des restrictions au commerce pourraient nuire
Accession la proprit 0,76 lconomie locale.
Location 0,82
Indicateurs conomiques
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
PIB rel au prix de base 164 555 166 863 169 931 175 327 178 810 182 298 185 405 188 438
(M$ de 2007) 1,3 1,4 1,8 3,2 2,0 2,0 1,7 1,6
Nombre total demplois (milliers) 2 018 2 040 2 073 2 139 2 140 2 170 2 189 2 204
0,5 1,1 1,6 3,2 0,1 1,4 0,9 0,7
Taux de chmage (%) 8,2 8,5 7,6 6,6 6,5 6,4 6,4 6,5
Revenu personnel par habitant ($) 40 972 42 247 43 255 44 793 45 745 46 957 48 083 49 196
2,7 3,1 2,4 3,6 2,1 2,6 2,4 2,3
Population (milliers) 4 019 4 050 4 094 4 138 4 178 4 219 4 260 4 300
1,0 0,8 1,1 1,1 1,0 1,0 1,0 0,9
Mises en chantier 18 672 18 744 17 834 19 674 18 961 18 648 17 912 17 429
Ventes au dtail (M$) 49 703 50 853 53 030 54 870 56 028 57 176 58 286 59 226
2,6 2,3 4,3 3,5 2,1 2,0 1,9 1,6
IPC (2002 = 1,0) 1,232 1,249 1,259 1,277 1,304 1,331 1,358 1,386
1,5 1,4 0,8 1,5 2,1 2,0 2,1 2,1
Il nest pas surprenant que ces robustes performances conomiques aient des
rsultats positifs sur le front de lemploi. Nous nous attendons une croissance
annuelle de lemploi de 1,6% en moyenne en 2017 et 2018 et une baisse
dutaux de chmage, qui va passer de 7,6% en 2016 un creux record de
6,5% lan prochain.
Le secteur a, toutefois, fini par donner des signes de vie cette anne, et la
production devrait atteindre 4,0% grce la solidit de secteurs tels que
la fabrication de produits pharmaceutiques la fabrication dquipements
dautomatisation. Cependant, les perspectives du secteur de la fabrication
de produits et pices aronautiques qui joue un rle cl dans la rgion
mtropolitaine sont assombries par la dcision du dpartement du commerce
des tats-Unis dimposer des droits compensatoires de 220 % sur les avions
de Bombardier. Plus tt cette anne, les avions de la C Series avaient retenu
lattention internationale grce des meilleures performances que prvu.
Sicette dcision prliminaire est soutenue, cela pourrait mettre en pril
lentende de 5,6 G$ conclue avec Delta.
Pour terminer, nous nous attendons ce que les services aux entreprises
progressent de 3,4% cette anne et de 2,5% lan prochain. Les bonnes
perspectives conomiques de tous les secteurs stimuleront la demande
dintrants essentiels aux entreprises, tels que les services dingnierie,
daidejuridique, de comptabilit, de gestion et dadministration.
MONTRAL
Graphique 1 Graphique 2
Perspectives demploi Prvisions relatives au PIB
Fin,, ass, et immob, 4,3 0,7 Fin., ass. et immob. 4,2 2,5
5 0 5 10 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 2 3
MONTRAL
Tableau 1 Tableau 2
Emplois par secteur Principales industries, 2016
(milliers)
Employs
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Classe* Industrie (milliers)
Nombre total demplois 2 018,4 2 040,3 2 072,8 2 139,2 2 140,4 2 169,5 2 188,6 2 204,0 4411-4543 Commerce de dtail 246,4
0,5 1,1 1,6 3,2 0,1 1,4 0,9 0,7
7221-7224 Services de restauration et dbits 127,5
Secteur des biens 356,0 342,1 344,5 355,4 365,6 361,2 361,1 360,5 deboissons
4,2 3,9 0,7 3,2 2,9 1,2 0,0 0,2 2311-2329 Construction 101,4
Fabrication 224,1 226,6 224,2 225,9 238,2 232,5 231,9 230,9 6220 Hpitaux 100,7
0,6 1,1 1,1 0,7 5,5 2,4 0,3 0,4
4111-4191 Commerce de gros 94,9
Construction 106,7 96,4 101,3 109,5 111,2 111,7 112,3 112,7
6111 coles primaires et secondaires 76,7
9,7 9,7 5,1 8,0 1,6 0,4 0,5 0,4
6241-6244 Assistance sociale 76,3
Industrie primaire et services publics 25,1 19,1 18,9 20,1 16,1 17,0 17,0 16,9
9,8 24,0 0,8 6,0 19,8 5,6 0,3 0,6 5511, 5611-5612, Autres serv. de gestion et admin. 74,8
5615-5617, 5619,
Secteur des services 1 662,4 1 698,3 1 728,3 1 783,8 1 774,8 1 808,4 1 827,5 1 843,5
5621-5629
0,3 2,2 1,8 3,2 0,5 1,9 1,1 0,9
5211, 5221-5223, Autorits montaires et intermdiation 70,8
Transports et entreposage 97,1 110,0 116,9 112,3 116,7 119,0 119,8 120,1 5231-5239 devaleurs mobilires etactivits connexes
5,5 13,3 6,3 3,9 3,9 2,0 0,6 0,3
6112-6117 Services denseignement postsecondaire 66,1
Industrie de linformation et 64,1 60,2 58,8 64,1 60,9 60,1 59,5 58,7
industrie culturelle 1,2 6,0 2,4 9,1 5,0 1,3 1,1 1,3 *Systme de classification des industries de lAmrique du Nord
Source : Statistique Canada.
Commerce de gros et de dtail 337,6 340,0 341,7 365,0 350,8 358,1 360,8 363,1
1,5 0,7 0,5 6,8 3,9 2,1 0,7 0,7
Finance, assurances et immobilier 134,5 129,3 133,5 139,2 137,7 141,6 142,2 143,1
3,1 3,8 3,2 4,3 1,1 2,8 0,4 0,6 Graphique 3
Services aux entreprises 267,2 303,5 305,3 314,7 311,3 319,5 324,2 328,3
Variabilit du march de lemploi
3,0 13,6 0,6 3,1 1,1 2,6 1,5 1,3
Fluctuations Comparativement au Canada
Services personnels 269,9 266,7 280,5 274,4 284,7 292,7 297,9 302,3
1,7 1,2 5,2 2,2 3,8 2,8 1,8 1,5
Montral 153
Services non commerciaux 412,0 405,0 412,5 434,1 440,6 442,9 448,9 453,6
0,0 1,7 1,8 5,2 1,5 0,5 1,3 1,0 Canada 100
Administration publique 80,0 83,5 79,1 80,0 72,0 74,4 74,3 74,2
0 50 100 150 200
8,3 4,4 5,2 1,1 10,0 3,3 0,1 0,2
MONTRAL
Tableau 3 Tableau 4
Construction, immobilier commercial et revenus Aperu Immobilier
Permis de construire
(milliers $) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 6 442 007 5 792 087 6 567 155 7 858 141 7 833 398 7 664 210 8 975 130 6 956 865 7 402 984 March du bureau au centre-ville (t4, 2016)
Rsidentiel 4 252 440 3 728 446 4 481 964 4 958 149 4 786 558 4 212 463 4 116 407 4 034 727 4 358 892 Taux dinoccupation de catgorie A 10,6 %
Loyer net moyen de classe A ($/pi2) 21,21 $
Non rsidentiel 2 189 567 2 063 641 2 085 191 2 899 992 3 046 840 3 451 747 4 858 723 2 922 138 3 044 092
March du bureau en banlieue (t4, 2016)
Industriel 331 268 271 462 261 850 328 509 523 218 428 381 632 201 412 723 387 213
Taux dinoccupation de catgorie A 18,4 %
Commercial 1 388 189 1 172 757 1 160 405 1 984 942 1 743 633 1 818 148 1 579 552 1 657 754 1 600 843
Loyer net moyen de classe A ($/pi2) 15,63 $
Admin publique 470 110 619 422 662 936 586 541 779 989 1 205 218 2 646 970 851 661 1 056 036
et non comm. March industriel (t4, 2016)
Emplois (milliers) 521 531 555 527 548 545 546 577 577 Sources : CBRE; Sries chronologiques sur le march de lhabitation de la SCHL.
Variation en % 1,9 1,9 4,5 5,0 4,0 0,6 0,2 5,7 0,0
Faillites
Particuliers 13 909 16 770 14 246 12 833 12 003 11 930 11 055 10 764 10 178 Graphique 5
Entreprises 1 137 1 095 875 902 873 905 887 831 819 Structure conomique, 2016
*Industrie de linformation et industrie culturelle; finance, assurances et immobilier; services aux entreprises et administration publique.
Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Statistique Canada; Industrie Canada; CBRE.
Trs diversifie = 1
Non diversifie = 0
Graphique 4
Montral
Revenu personnel par habitant, 2016 0,91
(milliers $)
Canada 46,2
Qubec 42,1
Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Statistique Canada.
Montral 43,3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
MONTRAL
Graphique 6 Tableau 5
Sources de migration Tableau comparatif de lemploi, 2016
(part du nombre total demplois)
Internationale Interprovinciale Interurbaine
Prvision
Secteur Montral Qubec Canada
50 000
Industriel 0,17 0,20 0,21
Graphique 7 Graphique 8
Mises en chantier Lemploi en perspective
(2011 = 1,0) (2011 = 1,0)
p = prvision p = prvision
Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Sries chronologiques sur le march de lhabitation de la SCHL. Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Statistique Canada.
Ontario
Summary
Real GDP growth is on track to reach 2.9per cent in 2017 but then slow
to2.2per cent in 2018.
ONTARIO
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Ontarios exports will strengthen next year.
i
Residential investment will level off over the
Credit Quality
nearterm.
A+
Source: Standard & Poors.
Forecast Risk
i
Protectionist rhetoric from the United States,
including the renegotiation of NAFTA,
increases the uncertainty around our outlook
for Ontarios export-oriented industries,
particularlymanufacturing.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 602,010 617,457 632,209 650,337 664,388 677,837 691,447 705,631
(2007 $ millions) 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.9 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.1
Total employment (000s) 6,877 6,924 7,000 7,075 7,130 7,220 7,308 7,422
0.8 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.6
Unemployment rate (per cent) 7.3 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.0
Personal income per capita ($) 43,262 44,936 46,234 47,256 48,548 50,028 51,449 53,026
Population (000s) 13,671 13,786 13,961 14,155 14,305 14,446 14,584 14,721
1.0 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9
Single-family housing starts (000s) 23.7 25.0 30.1 30.7 28.2 25.7 26.0 26.2
Multi-family housing starts (000s) 35.4 45.2 44.9 45.9 44.1 43.9 44.6 45.3
Retail sales ($ millions) 179,100 188,893 202,235 214,683 219,747 225,569 231,140 236,902
5.8 5.5 7.1 6.2 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.5
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.259 1.274 1.297 1.318 1.342 1.371 1.400 1.429
2.3 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.1
The public sector will be another driver of growth in the near term, as the
federal and provincial governments remain committed to boosting infrastructure
investment. The 201718 provincial budget released in Aprilthe first balanced
budget in a decadeearmarked about $15billion in infrastructure spending for
the current fiscal year.
Trade will be weak in 2017, with exports expected to post a meagre 0.4per cent
increase following sound growth last year. Fortunately, exports should recover
in 2018. The U.S. economy is set to expand at a healthy clip next year, although
export growth will be held back somewhat by the fact that U.S. vehicle sales
have peaked.
Still, there are signs that high household debt loads across the province and
elevated house prices in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region are taking their
toll on consumers. According to July data from the Conference Boards Index
of Consumer Confidence, only 28per cent of households believe this is a good
time to make a big-ticket purchase. Factors like this, combined with a 5.7per
cent decline in housing starts in 2018, will temper demand for appliances and
furniture. As a result, spending growth on durable goods is forecast to slow
to1.6per cent next year, while total household consumption growth will slow
to2.0per cent.
Chart 1
Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0)
Ontario Canada
Forecast
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
f = forecast
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
Exports Disappoint
Ontarios exports to other countries were hampered last year by global
economic weakness and remained essentially flat in the first quarter of this
year.Fortunately, global economic growth has picked up in recent months,
fostering optimism about the provinces near-term trade outlook. In addition,
the Canadian dollar remains below parity with the U.S. dollar, making Canadian
goods moreattractive abroad.
That said, export growth will be somewhat held back by the fact that many
manufacturers lack the capacity to increase production; stronger business
investment is necessary for a more pronounced pickup in exports. Moreover,
the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) poses
some downside risk to our outlook. In all, exports of goods and services (to both
other countries and provinces) are expected to advance 2.7per cent next year.
Chart 2
Industry Outlook, 201721
(average annual compound growth rate)
Summary
The economy is expected to generate an average of 9,100 jobs per year this
year and next, up from an annual average of 5,900 net new jobs in the previous
five years.
The job gains should be enough to outpace increases in the labour force,
pushing the unemployment rate down from 6.5per cent in 2016 to 6.1per
centby 2018.
OTTAWAGATINEAU
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 The federal public service is in hiring mode.
i
Retail sales growth should slow next year, partly
because of rising interest rates.
2016
i
High federal government budget deficits may
Homeownership 0.78 require greater spending restraint over the
next few years, limiting job gains in the federal
Rental 1.25
publicservice.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 64,128 65,209 66,435 68,091 69,589 71,056 72,484 73,941
(2007 $ millions) 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
Total employment (000s) 707 711 718 729 736 750 763 777
1.7 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.9 1.7 1.9
Unemployment rate (per cent) 6.7 6.5 6.5 5.9 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.4
Personal income per capita ($) 47,538 48,589 49,205 49,957 50,916 52,495 53,980 55,547
0.3 2.2 1.3 1.5 1.9 3.1 2.8 2.9
Population (000s) 1,317 1,330 1,351 1,372 1,388 1,405 1,420 1,436
1.1 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
Total housing starts 7,665 6,556 7,117 7,834 7,500 7,550 7,630 7,610
Retail sales ($ millions) 18,053 18,760 19,837 20,868 21,369 21,953 22,495 23,047
2.9 3.9 5.7 5.2 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.5
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.253 1.265 1.281 1.302 1.327 1.356 1.384 1.413
2.0 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1
Sunny Days
With many key pillars of OttawaGatineaus
economy enjoying solid advances this year, real
GDP is on track to increase by 2.5per cent, the
fastest rate of growth in seven years. Although
economic growth is projected to moderate in
2018, it will remain healthy at 2.2per cent.
These gains are a big improvement over the previous five years, when annual
growth averaged a disappointing 1.2per cent. In fact, if our forecast proves to
beaccurate, the 201718 growth will be the strongest back-to-back increases
since 200708.
The pickup in the economy starts with the National Capital Regions largest
industrypublic administration. A big increase in federal government spending
has been accompanied by a significant upswing in local public service hiring.
Following several years of cutbacks, public administration employment has
increased strongly since 2016. The construction industry has been another
important driver of growth this year, thanks especially to strong showings from
the residential and governmental sectors. Meanwhile, the tourism industry has
been enjoying a banner year, as visitors have flocked to the capital to participate
in events to celebrate Canadas 150thbirthday. Finally, the local high-tech sector
has been another key economic contributor, as it continues to grow and diversify
into other areas besides telecommunications.
The strong economic conditions have translated into a good year for
OttawaGatineaus labour market; some 11,000 net new jobs are expected
tobeadded to payrolls in 2017, up from an annual average of 5,900 net new
jobsin the previous five years. The positive momentum should continue
next year as the economy generates an additional 7,100 net new jobs.
Theemployment gains should be sufficient to outpace increases in the labour
force, particularly given that retirement rates are on the rise. This will push
theunemployment rate down from 6.5per cent in 2016 to6.1 per cent by 2018.
Although we expect local public administration output growth to slow over the
final three years of the forecast, the sector is expected to add an additional
7,600 workers to its payrolls by 2021. This would lift sectoral employment to
161,600 by the of the forecast. However, there is downside risk to this outlook,
as high budget deficits may require greater spending restraint over the medium
term, thus limiting job gains in the federal public service.
Meanwhile, healthy job and income growth has lifted the spirits of consumers,
leading to vigorous gains in household spending over the past two years.
Infact, 2017 is expected to mark the second consecutive year in which retail
sales growth in OttawaGatineau exceeds 5per cent. This will translate into an
average annual increase of 4.5per cent in wholesale and retail trade output over
the same two-year period. However, the current pace of consumer spending is
unlikely to be sustained, given that households are highly leveraged and interest
rates are creeping up, implying more money will need to be set aside to pay
down debt. As a result, retail sales growth is forecast to slow to 2.4per cent
in 2018, leading to a more moderate increase of 2.1per cent in wholesale and
retail trade output.
Finally, good things are also happening in the regions high-tech sector, as
itcontinues to grow and diversify in other areas besides telecommunications.
Partly as a result, business services output, which includes computer systems
design services, is projected to expand by 1.9per cent in 2017 and by a further
2.9per cent in 2018.
One of the biggest local high-tech stories is the rapid expansion of Ottawa-
based Shopify Inc., producers of an e-commerce platform for small and
mediumsized businesses. The companys second-quarter 2017 financial results
blew past consensus estimates, as revenues increased 75 per cent year-over-
year to $151.7million. Shopify has been hiring so many people that it has
already outgrown the 170,000-square-foot head office it opened a mere three
years ago, and so earlier this year it signed a lease to take over an additional
325,000 square feet of office space nearby.
There are also many other major infrastructure projects currently under way
or in the pipeline. For instance, Parliament Hill is undergoing a makeover,
including the $862.9-million renovation of the West Block, a new $129.9-million
underground visitor welcome centre, and a $219-million renovation to the
Government Conference Centre. The federal government is also moving
forward with plans to rehabilitate the Supreme Court of Canada building,
at a cost of about $1billion. At the local level, Gatineau City Council has
voted to approve a $79-million arena complex that will feature a main rink
for the Gatineau Olympiques junior hockey team and three smaller rinks for
community use. On the other side of the river, Ottawa City Council is looking
at building a $168-million main library branch, in partnership with Library and
Archives Canada, as well as a $148-billion cross-town bus transitway along
BaselineRoad.
Not to be outdone, the residential side of the market is also adding to growth this
year, with the healthy economic climate boosting the demand for homes. Infact,
housing starts are expected to climb by 10.1per cent in 2017, reaching afour-
year high of 7,830 units. Although our call is for starts to ease to 7,500units
next year, in line with rising mortgage rates, this remains a healthy level that
nearly matches the previous 25-year average. Two-thirds of housing starts in
OttawaGatineau are typically multi-family dwellings. This share will likely rise
somewhat over the forecast, especially considering Ottawas plans to encourage
the construction of high-rise apartment buildings next to light-rail transit stations.
OTTAWAGATINEAU
Chart 1 Chart 2
Employment Outlook GDP Outlook
Fin., ins., & real est. 1.8 0.6 Fin., ins., & real est. 1.4 2.8
Information & cultural 21.1 3.8 Information & cultural 3.9 0.8
Trans. & ware. 1.8 0.9 Trans. & ware. 3.7 2.3
Wholesale & retail 2.0 1.0 Wholesale & retail 6.4 2.2
30 20 10 0 10 20 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 2 3 4
Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
OttawaGatineau | The Conference Board of Canada
OTTAWAGATINEAU
Table 1 Table 2
Sectoral Employment Dominant Industries, 2016
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
Total employment 707.2 710.9 718.2 729.3 736.4 750.1 763.1 777.4 911011 Federal government 133.3
1.7 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.9 1.7 1.9
44114543 Retail trade 68.6
Goods sector 65.9 74.7 63.7 66.9 66.1 67.0 67.9 68.5
722124 Food and beverage services 37.2
3.2 13.2 14.7 5.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 0.9
231129 Construction 36.6
Manufacturing 24.3 23.2 22.8 23.9 23.5 23.5 23.6 23.7
3.9 4.3 1.8 4.4 1.5 0.1 0.5 0.3 6111 Primary and secondary schools 32.8
Construction 35.3 47.2 36.7 39.9 38.9 39.8 40.6 41.1 6220 Hospitals 31.8
2.7 33.6 22.3 8.8 2.5 2.4 2.0 1.3 621119 Ambulatory health care services 29.7
Primary and utilities 6.3 4.2 4.2 3.1 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 611217 Post-secondary education 27.9
51.5 33.3 1.5 25.0 18.8 2.8 0.3 0.3
5415 Computer systems design services 24.0
Services sector 641.2 636.2 654.5 662.4 670.3 683.2 695.3 708.9
624144 Social Assistance 22.0
1.6 0.8 2.9 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.8 2.0
Transportation and warehousing 20.1 20.5 22.2 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.5 22.6 *North American Industrial Classification System
Source: Statistics Canada.
6.6 1.9 8.2 1.8 1.3 0.8 1.1 0.5
Information and cultural industries 17.8 17.0 15.1 11.9 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.8
7.7 4.3 11.4 21.1 16.9 0.9 0.1 0.2
Wholesale and retail trade 88.0 89.0 88.1 89.9 91.6 91.6 92.4 93.5 Chart 3
3.8 1.2 1.0 2.0 1.9 0.0 0.9 1.2 Employment Market Variability
Finance, insurance, and real estate 31.9 33.2 31.0 31.5 30.9 31.3 31.9 32.3
7.8 4.1 6.8 1.8 1.9 1.3 1.9 1.2 Fluctuations Compared to Canada
Business services 100.5 97.6 103.8 98.3 106.1 108.3 110.6 113.3
5.0 2.8 6.3 5.3 7.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 OttawaGatineau 223
Personal services 93.4 86.3 88.3 91.5 94.4 96.0 98.4 101.2 Canada 100
11.0 7.6 2.3 3.6 3.1 1.7 2.6 2.8
0 100 200 300
Non-commercial services 141.0 148.6 156.2 149.5 157.4 162.8 166.4 170.7
2.3 5.4 5.1 4.3 5.3 3.4 2.2 2.5
Public administration 148.6 143.9 149.8 167.9 153.9 157.2 159.1 161.6 No link to
0.0 3.1 4.1 12.1 8.3 2.1 1.2 1.5 Canada 34%
Shaded area represents forecast data; italics indicate percentage change. Link to Canada 66%
First line of employment data is in thousands and second line is percentage change.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
METROPOLITAN OUTLOOK 1
Economic Insights Into 13 Canadian EconomiesAutumn2017
OTTAWAGATINEAU
Table 3 Table 4
Construction, Commercial Real Estate, and Income Overview Real Estate
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 2,420,592 2,363,684 2,741,558 2,424,715 2,750,768 2,746,677 3,306,750 2,710,698 3,272,407 Downtown office market (2016Q4)
Residential 1,518,603 1,415,343 1,563,526 1,495,624 1,502,986 1,562,488 2,123,101 1,609,444 2,071,799 Class A vacancy rate 10.2%
Average Class A net rent ($/sq. ft.) $23.12
Non-residential 901,989 948,341 1,178,032 929,091 1,247,782 1,184,189 1,183,649 1,101,254 1,200,608
Suburban office market (2016Q4)
Industrial 30,258 127,391 61,684 34,519 50,048 32,948 47,748 104,457 154,327
Class A vacancy rate 11.9%
Commercial 564,669 562,185 842,327 666,994 932,098 954,206 817,497 746,073 791,491
Average Class A net rent ($/sq. ft.) $16.67
Public admin. 307,062 258,765 274,021 227,578 265,636 197,035 318,404 250,724 254,790
and non-comm. Industrial market (2016Q4)
Employment (000s) 290 298 296 298 310 305 299 292 300 Sources: CBRE; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.
Percentage change 7.3 2.6 0.8 0.8 3.9 1.4 2.2 2.3 2.7
Bankruptcies
Consumer 3,764 4,130 2,950 2,657 2,543 2,629 2,494 2,412 2,381 Chart 5
Business 228 178 124 114 109 128 123 149 103 Economic Structure, 2016
*Information and cultural services; finance, insurance, and real estate; business services; and public administration.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; Industry Canada; CBRE.
Highly diverse = 1
Chart 4 Not diverse = 0
Ottawa
Personal Income Per Capita, 2016 Gatineau
($ 000s) 0.38
Canada 46.2
Ontario 46.2
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
OttawaGatineau 49.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
OTTAWAGATINEAU
Chart 6 Table 5
Sources of Migration Comparative Employment, 2016
(share of total employment)
International Interprovincial Intercity
Forecast
Sector OttawaGatineau Ontario Canada
16,000
Industrial 0.09 0.20 0.21
12,000
Office 0.42 0.28 0.25
8,000
4,000 Transportation and warehousing 0.03 0.05 0.05
0 Wholesale and retail trade 0.12 0.15 0.15
4,000 Personal services 0.12 0.13 0.13
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Non-commercial services 0.22 0.19 0.20
Chart 7 Chart 8
Housing Starts Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
f = forecast f = forecast
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
Toronto
Summary
Torontos economy is forecast to grow 3.7 per cent in 2017 and 2.5 per cent
in2018.
TORONTO
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 The provincial government is investing heavily
ininfrastructure, leading to vigorous construction
3.3 3.7 2.5 2.8
sector activity.
Out of 13 CMAs #2 #3 #1 #2
i
Housing starts are expected to fall this year
and next, in line with higher mortgage rates
2016
i
Torontos export-oriented manufacturing sector
Homeownership 1.59 could be hurt by U.S. protectionist measures.
Rental 1.38
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 307,781 319,090 329,678 341,751 350,305 358,927 367,781 376,577
(2007 $ millions) 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4
Total employment (000s) 3,086 3,178 3,216 3,262 3,296 3,361 3,422 3,492
0.1 3.0 1.2 1.4 1.1 2.0 1.8 2.0
Unemployment rate (per cent) 8.0 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.1
Personal income per capita ($) 44,545 46,544 47,110 47,979 49,266 50,742 52,163 53,670
2.7 4.5 1.2 1.8 2.7 3.0 2.8 2.9
Population (000s) 6,055 6,124 6,242 6,361 6,457 6,550 6,643 6,737
1.5 1.1 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4
Total housing starts 28,929 42,287 39,027 38,366 36,670 36,550 37,070 37,780
Retail sales ($ millions) 73,656 77,470 83,068 88,830 91,230 94,046 96,800 99,543
6.6 5.2 7.2 6.9 2.7 3.1 2.9 2.8
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.264 1.283 1.310 1.339 1.365 1.394 1.424 1.453
2.5 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1
This years fastest growth is expected from wholesale and retail trade, which
continues to benefit from decent employment and income gains. Consumer
spending activity is expected to receive an additional boost from Ontarios
Fair Hydro Plan, which lowered electricity bills by 25per cent on average for
all residential customers starting this past summer. Increases will be held to
the rate of inflation over the next four years. News from the wholesale and
retail sector includes the completion of a $550-million redevelopment and
expansion at Sherway Gardens. The malls new south wing opened this past
August and includes 250,000 square feet of additional retail space. Nordstrom
hired 400employees for the 140,000-square-foot store that opened at the
mall in midSeptember. Also, Cadillac Fairview has completed a $21-million
redevelopment of its CF Shops at Don Mills shopping centre. Meanwhile,
Nordstrom plans to open Nordstrom Rack stores in Vaughan Mills and at the
Heartland Town Centre in Mississauga next year. All in all, output growth in
thewholesale and retail trade sector is projected to come in at 7.2per cent
in2017, before slowing to a still solid 3.0per cent in 2018.
Activity will also be vibrant this year and next in the business services sector.
After expanding by a solid 3.2per cent last year, output in the sector will rise
a further 3.6per cent in 2017 and 2.9per cent in 2018. Amazon is finalizing
a deal to lease five floors at the Scotia Plaza. The company also announced
in June that it plans to hire an additional 200 workers at its headquarters in
Toronto. Meanwhile, Uber is launching a research group to study driverless
car technologiesthe first such group outside the United States. Moreover,
Sidewalk Labsa Google subsidiaryhas applied to develop a 12-acre strip
indowntown Toronto.
Elsewhere in the services sector, the finance, insurance, and real estate
sector will largely shrug off a slower housing market, posting output growth of
4.8per cent in 2017 and 3.1per cent in 2018. On a negative note, Royal Bank
announced earlier this year that it would cut 450 jobs, mostly at its Toronto
headoffice.
expected to rise by 3.9per cent in 2017. However, a near 5per cent decline
in housing starts next year will help cool overall construction output growth
to2.0per cent in 2018.
After a blistering start to the year, housing market activity is moderating. In April,
the Ontario government introduced its 16-point Fair Housing Plan, with the aim
of cooling red-hot housing markets in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region.
Themeasures appeared to have had their desired effect. Sales of detached
homes, townhouses, and condos dropped nearly 39per cent in July 2017
compared with July 2016the third consecutive month that sales had dropped
on a year-over-year basis. The market has moved to a buyers stance, which
has put downward pressure on prices. According to the Toronto Real Estate
Board, the average price of a resale home in the Toronto area declined from
$919,449to $746,216 between April and July.
The new home market is following a similar pattern. Housing starts surged to
46,670 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter of 2017.
But starts moderated to 33,000 units in the second quarter and are expected
toaverage just under 37,000 units over the next six quarters as the government
housing measures and rising mortgage rates keep demand in check. As a result,
on an annual basis, housing starts are projected to decline by 1.7per cent to
38,366 units in 2017 and by a further 4.4per cent to 36,670 units in 2018.
Employment in the manufacturing sector has struggled over the last few years.
Decent output gains in 2014 and 2015 were accompanied by employment
declines averaging 2.2per cent per year, so the 3.6per cent hike in 2016 came
as a welcome respite. Unfortunately, employment is expected to trend downward
over the next two years as productivity gains outpace the growth in output.
TORONTO
Chart 1 Chart 2
Employment Outlook GDP Outlook
Fin., ins., & real est. 1.2 1.2 Fin., ins., & real est. 4.8 2.9
Information & cultural 3.9 0.6 Information & cultural 1.4 0.6
Trans. & ware. 6.3 0.0 Trans. & ware. 4.4 2.6
Wholesale & retail 3.6 1.3 Wholesale & retail 7.2 2.9
10 5 0 5 10 0 1 2 3 4 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 2 3 4
Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Toronto | The Conference Board of Canada
TORONTO
Table 1 Table 2
Sectoral Employment Dominant Industries, 2016
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
Total employment 3,086.4 3,177.8 3,216.1 3,261.8 3,296.4 3,361.1 3,422.4 3,491.8 44114543 Retail trade 334.4
0.1 3.0 1.2 1.4 1.1 2.0 1.8 2.0
5211, 522123, Finance 213.1
Goods sector 537.6 554.4 570.6 554.4 554.6 565.6 571.2 579.9 523139
2.7 3.1 2.9 2.8 0.0 2.0 1.0 1.5 231129 Construction 207.8
Manufacturing 323.8 319.7 331.2 329.9 321.4 329.8 331.5 334.8 722124 Food and beverage services 176.7
3.1 1.3 3.6 0.4 2.6 2.6 0.5 1.0
411191 Wholesale trade 149.4
Construction 185.8 201.9 208.2 197.4 201.6 205.2 208.9 213.8
48114922 Transportation 148.5
2.3 8.7 3.1 5.2 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.4
6111 Primary and secondary schools 125.5
Primary and utilities 28.0 32.8 31.2 27.0 31.6 30.5 30.9 31.4
1.5 17.4 4.9 13.5 17.0 3.4 1.2 1.5 621119 Ambulatory health care services 120.6
Services sector 2,548.8 2,623.4 2,645.5 2,707.5 2,741.8 2,795.5 2,851.1 2,911.9 5415 Computer systems design services 106.5
0.4 2.9 0.8 2.3 1.3 2.0 2.0 2.1
5511, 561112, Other management and 103.3
Transportation and warehousing 152.7 163.6 164.3 174.6 165.1 169.5 171.6 174.7 561517, 5619, administrative services
11.4 7.1 0.4 6.3 5.5 2.7 1.2 1.8 562129
Information and cultural industries 89.1 97.3 88.6 85.1 87.8 87.5 87.3 87.2 *North American Industrial Classification System
5.5 9.2 8.9 3.9 3.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 Source: Statistics Canada.
Wholesale and retail trade 464.6 484.4 483.9 501.5 505.1 511.4 519.7 528.8
1.3 4.3 0.1 3.6 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.8
Finance, insurance, and real estate 325.8 343.0 361.3 365.7 366.9 372.3 377.6 383.8 Chart 3
3.9 5.3 5.3 1.2 0.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 Employment Market Variability
Business services 490.7 514.1 510.4 534.9 545.9 553.7 565.8 579.4
3.2 4.8 0.7 4.8 2.1 1.4 2.2 2.4 Fluctuations Compared to Canada
Personal services 398.4 394.6 399.9 395.0 410.4 419.8 431.5 441.4
1.0 0.9 1.3 1.2 3.9 2.3 2.8 2.3 Toronto 178
Non-commercial services 523.9 529.0 529.3 550.5 557.7 576.3 591.6 609.1 Canada 100
3.6 1.0 0.1 4.0 1.3 3.4 2.6 3.0
Public administration 103.6 97.4 107.8 100.1 103.0 104.8 106.1 107.6 0 50 100 150 200
6.8 6.0 10.6 7.2 2.9 1.8 1.2 1.4
Shaded area represents forecast data; italics indicate percentage change. No link to
First line of employment data is in thousands and second line is percentage change. Canada 18%
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Link to Canada 82%
TORONTO
Table 3 Table 4
Construction, Commercial Real Estate, and Income Overview Real Estate
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 12,234,166 9,951,769 12,969,430 14,217,082 15,496,460 15,411,372 15,371,182 18,203,882 18,158,138 Downtown office market (2016Q4)
Residential 7,112,561 6,155,497 7,670,912 8,461,403 9,794,735 9,339,596 9,722,991 11,646,491 12,070,135 Class A vacancy rate 4.4%
Average Class A net rent ($/sq. ft.) $27.98
Non-residential 5,121,605 3,796,272 5,298,518 5,755,679 5,701,725 6,071,776 5,648,191 6,557,391 6,088,003
Suburban office market (2016Q4)
Industrial 728,565 488,656 1,031,560 794,502 823,838 1,007,470 833,461 1,108,874 753,286
Class A vacancy rate 14.7%
Commercial 3,214,770 2,442,735 2,888,839 2,563,910 3,324,397 3,963,433 3,687,511 3,631,337 3,949,352
Average Class A net rent ($/sq. ft.) $17.73
Public admin. 1,178,270 864,881 1,378,119 2,397,267 1,553,490 1,100,873 1,127,219 1,817,180 1,385,365
and non-comm. Industrial market (2016Q4)
Employment (000s) 910 902 942 970 942 995 1,009 1,052 1,068 Sources: CBRE; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.
Percentage change 4.8 -0.8 4.4 2.9 -2.9 5.7 1.5 4.2 1.5
Bankruptcies
Consumer 12,208 15,423 10,996 8,050 7,203 6,714 6,032 5,532 5,072 Chart 5
Business 1,122 1,023 714 628 488 466 368 401 318 Economic Structure, 2016
*Information and cultural services; finance, insurance, and real estate; business services; and public administration.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; Industry Canada; CBRE.
Highly diverse = 1
Not diverse = 0
Chart 4 Toronto
Personal Income Per Capita, 2016 0.88
($ 000s)
Canada 46.2
Ontario 46.2
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Toronto 47.1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
TORONTO
Chart 6 Table 5
Sources of Migration Comparative Employment, 2016
(share of total employment)
International Interprovincial Intercity
Forecast
Sector Toronto Ontario Canada
120,000
Industrial 0.18 0.20 0.21
80,000
Office 0.33 0.28 0.25
40,000 Transportation and warehousing 0.05 0.05 0.05
0 Wholesale and retail trade 0.15 0.15 0.15
40,000 Personal services 0.12 0.13 0.13
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Non-commercial services 0.16 0.19 0.20
Chart 7 Chart 8
Housing Starts Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
f = forecast f = forecast
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
Hamilton
Summary
Real GDP growth in Hamilton is forecast to slow from 2.9per cent in 2017
to2.0per cent in 2018.
Employment growth will be very strong in 2017, reaching 4.9per cent, but
isprojected to decline by 2.1per cent next year.
HAMILTON
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Job growth is on pace to reach a 14-year high
in2017.
2.3 2.9 1.9 1.9
i
Housing starts will post a big decline this year.
Credit Quality AA
Source: Standard & Poors.
2016
i
Protectionist rhetoric from the U.S., including
Homeownership 1.06 the vow to renegotiate NAFTA, increases
theuncertainty around our outlook for
Rental 1.08
Hamiltons export-oriented industries,
particularlymanufacturing.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 27,338 27,998 28,631 29,449 30,042 30,605 31,143 31,747
(2007 $ millions) 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9
Total employment (000s) 382 386 387 406 398 403 409 416
2.4 0.9 0.4 4.9 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.9
Unemployment rate (per cent) 5.9 5.5 6.1 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.2
Personal income per capita ($) 43,612 45,093 46,338 48,645 48,976 50,395 51,782 53,386
4.3 3.4 2.8 5.0 0.7 2.9 2.8 3.1
Population (000s) 765 770 778 787 794 802 809 816
0.9 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Total housing starts 2,832 2,054 3,269 2,517 2,670 2,790 2,880 2,950
Retail sales ($ millions) 9,301 9,750 10,406 11,071 11,316 11,599 11,856 12,139
7.5 4.8 6.7 6.4 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.4
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.259 1.274 1.297 1.318 1.342 1.371 1.400 1.429
2.3 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.1
The impressive GDP performance this year is being reflected in a hot labour
market. Employment is expected to climb at its fastest rate in 14years, leading
to the creation of over 19,000 net new jobs. But such growth is unsustainable.
As a result, we expect Hamiltons labour market to give back some of these
gains in 2018, with employment projected to dip 2.1per cent, equivalent to
the loss of 8,500 jobs. Overall, the unemployment rate is expected to fall from
6.1per cent in 2016 to 5.6per cent in 2018.
Headlining growth this year will be wholesale and retail trade. Rapid employment
growth and strong income gains will lift retail sales growth above 6per cent
for the second consecutive year in 2017, raising wholesale and retail trade
output by 4.6per cent this year. But next years expected drop in employment
and accompanying slowdown in income growth will slow retail sales advances
to 2.2per cent in 2018 and limit wholesale and retail trade output growth to
2.2percent.
At the same time, a hot resale housing market at the start of 2017 will help
propel full-year output growth of 3.1per cent in finance, insurance, and real
estate. But weakening resale housing market activity, sparked by Ontario
government cooling measures and rising interest rates, implies slower growth
going forward. Indeed, output growth in the finance, insurance, and real estate
industry is projected to moderate to 1.9per cent in 2018, its slowest pace
in sixyears. Among the provincial government housing market measures,
the 15per cent non-resident speculation tax applies to residential property
in Hamilton and Burlington, along with other cities in the Greater Golden
Horseshoe area.
Housing starts hit a six-year-high of 3,270 units last year, thanks to a surge in
multi-family units. But this caused inventories to swell, leading to a pullback in
housing starts this year. In fact, about 2,500 new units are anticipated in 2017.
Fortunately, this years residential investment downturn has been more than
offset by vigorous activity on the non-residential front, although things should
cool next year. Construction is ongoing on the $25-million Bernie Morelli
Recreation Centre, which will feature a gymnasium, fitness rooms, a leisure
pool, and an indoor walking track. Work also continues on the $138.9-million
Randle Reef contaminated sediment remediation project. The first phase
ofthe project involves the construction of an engineered containment facility
that will house contaminated sediment. In addition, over the next five years,
the Woodward wastewater treatment plant will get $340million in upgrades,
including a new chlorine contact tank, a new energy centre, and a new raw
sewage pumping station. Other projects in the pipeline include the construction
of a $20-million, 134-unit Hyatt hotel at McMaster Universitys innovation hub
and a $106-million biosolids facility.
Some good news is starting to emerge for Stelco, formerly known as U.S.
Steel Canada. The steelmaker, under creditor protection since the fall of 2014,
was officially purchased by Bedrock Industriesa U.S. investment firmin
June, keeping plants in Hamilton and Nanticoke, Ont., operating. Still, lots of
uncertainty remains. Protectionist policies by the new U.S. administration aimed
at increasing the purchase and use of American products, including steel, could
hurt the Canadian steelmaker. Stelco workers also worry about their pensions,
as the province will not force Bedrock Industries to make up the approximately
$1-billion pension shortfall.
With slow output growth, manufacturing employment has struggled over the past
few years, declining by an annual average of 2.5per cent between 2011 and
2016. Last years 11.1per cent decline was the largest since 2006. Fortunately,
job growth is expected to return this year, with the creation of 3,560 net new
jobsan 8.0per cent increase. However, another pullback is expected in 2018.
Even with modest gains over the rest of the forecast, manufacturing employment
will remain about 40per cent below its 2004 level in 2021.
HAMILTON
Chart 1 Chart 2
Employment Outlook GDP Outlook
Fin., ins., & real est. 14.7 1.8 Fin., ins., & real est. 3.1 1.8
Information & cultural 41.5 8.9 Information & cultural 2.8 0.8
Trans. & ware. 7.0 1.5 Trans. & ware. 2.0 2.0
Wholesale & retail 0.9 0.7 Wholesale & retail 4.6 1.9
60 40 20 0 20 40 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 2 3
Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Hamilton | The Conference Board of Canada
HAMILTON
Table 1 Table 2
Sectoral Employment Dominant Industries, 2016
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
Total employment 382.4 385.7 387.2 406.3 397.8 403.2 408.7 416.3 44114543 Retail trade 43.7
2.4 0.9 0.4 4.9 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.9
231129 Construction 29.4
Goods sector 79.4 83.4 79.9 84.8 81.3 81.6 81.9 82.9
722124 Food and beverage services 20.6
1.6 5.0 4.2 6.1 4.1 0.4 0.5 1.1
6111 Primary and secondary schools 18.5
Manufacturing 46.6 50.1 44.5 48.1 46.5 46.8 46.8 47.2
0.4 7.4 11.1 8.0 3.3 0.7 0.0 0.8 621119 Ambulatory health care services 18.5
Construction 27.7 27.2 29.4 31.3 29.3 29.4 29.8 30.3 6220 Hospitals 18.1
5.0 1.6 7.8 6.6 6.2 0.3 1.3 1.8 411191 Wholesale trade 17.6
Primary and utilities 5.1 6.1 6.0 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5511, 561112, Other management and 15.1
1.0 18.3 0.7 10.3 0.2 1.9 0.0 0.4 561517, 5619, administrative services
562129
Services sector 302.9 302.3 307.2 321.5 316.6 321.6 326.8 333.4
3.6 0.2 1.6 4.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 2.0 611217 Post-secondary education 14.9
Transportation and warehousing 19.0 14.1 16.5 17.6 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.6 5211, 522123, Finance 12.9
15.6 25.5 16.6 7.0 7.7 0.6 0.5 1.1 523139
Information and cultural industries 8.0 6.6 7.6 4.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 *North American Industrial Classification System
29.0 17.2 15.1 41.5 42.7 1.3 0.3 0.3 Source: Statistics Canada.
Wholesale and retail trade 62.4 60.2 61.5 60.9 62.6 61.8 62.1 62.7
7.4 3.6 2.2 0.9 2.7 1.2 0.4 1.0
Finance, insurance, and real estate 21.8 30.9 25.0 28.7 26.1 26.4 26.4 26.7 Chart 3
16.5 41.3 19.0 14.7 9.2 1.3 0.1 0.9 Employment Market Variability
Business services 48.4 48.2 46.4 49.2 50.3 50.9 51.9 53.1
7.2 0.5 3.7 5.9 2.3 1.1 2.1 2.3 Fluctuations Compared to Canada
Personal services 49.7 42.1 48.4 50.8 49.4 49.9 50.8 52.1
3.1 15.3 15.0 5.0 2.8 1.0 2.0 2.4 Hamilton 297
Non-commercial services 76.7 86.8 87.0 91.1 89.4 93.6 96.0 99.0 Canada 100
1.0 13.2 0.2 4.7 1.9 4.7 2.6 3.1
Public administration 16.9 13.4 14.9 18.8 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.1 0 100 200 300 400
14.4 20.7 10.9 26.0 13.1 1.5 1.4 1.7
Shaded area represents forecast data; italics indicate percentage change. No link to
First line of employment data is in thousands and second line is percentage change. Canada 39%
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Link to Canada 61%
HAMILTON
Table 3 Table 4
Construction, Commercial Real Estate, and Income Overview Real Estate
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 1,324,645 985,978 1,480,892 1,224,185 1,977,851 1,431,044 1,421,578 1,657,274 1,566,787 New housing market (2016)
Residential 700,970 456,282 848,496 755,014 850,047 750,442 851,073 1,006,733 1,086,146 Single-detached absorptions 846
Growth 25.9%
Non-residential 623,675 529,696 632,396 469,171 1,127,804 680,602 570,505 650,541 480,641
Average price of absorbed single-detached units $552,712
Industrial 92,146 47,268 129,226 49,592 234,665 145,906 67,524 87,095 37,097
Growth 3.0%
Commercial 317,710 269,888 301,053 224,907 394,008 345,617 318,342 204,498 289,731
Resale housing market (2016)
Public admin. 213,819 212,540 202,117 194,672 499,131 189,079 184,639 358,948 153,813
and non-comm. Unit sales 14,457
Growth 5.2%
Office sector*
Average price $490,486
No. of square feet n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Growth 11.5%
(000s)
Percentage change n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Apartment market (October 2016)
Vacancy rate (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Two-bedroom vacancy rate 3.8%
Average two-bedroom rent $1,040
Employment (000s) 85 82 82 87 89 92 95 99 94
Percentage change 0.7 3.8 0.8 5.6 2.5 3.6 3.1 4.1 5.2 Sources: CMHC Housing Time Series Database; Canadian Real Estate
Association.
Bankruptcies
Consumer 2,093 2,737 1,973 1,519 1,283 1,136 956 847 841
Business 150 126 91 60 45 43 37 44 37
Chart 5
*Information and cultural services; finance, insurance, and real estate; business services; and public administration. Economic Structure, 2016
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; Industry Canada; CBRE.
Canada 46.2
Ontario 46.2
Hamilton 46.3
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
HAMILTON
Chart 6 Table 5
Sources of Migration Comparative Employment, 2016
(share of total employment)
International Interprovincial Intercity
Forecast
Sector Hamilton Ontario Canada
8,000
Industrial 0.21 0.20 0.21
6,000
Office 0.24 0.28 0.25
4,000
2,000 Transportation and warehousing 0.04 0.05 0.05
0 Wholesale and retail trade 0.16 0.15 0.15
2,000 Personal services 0.12 0.13 0.13
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Non-commercial services 0.22 0.19 0.20
Chart 7 Chart 8
Housing Starts Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
f = forecast f = forecast
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
Manitoba
Summary
Employment growth will cool and is set to average 0.5per cent growth per year
from 2017 to 2021.
MANITOBA
i
2016 2017 201821 201221 Upcoming mine closures will reduce the mining
sector in Manitoba to a fraction of its current size
2.4 2.9 1.0 1.8
by 2021.
Shaded area represents forecast data.
h
The residential sector will benefit from strong
Credit Quality
housing demand and investment.
AA
Source: Standard & Poors.
Forecast Risk
i
The costs of Manitoba Hydros multi-billion-dollar
projects have ballooned and will likely be paid
for by rate hikes for households in Manitoba,
dampening their purchasing power.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 53,462 54,609 55,912 57,531 57,718 58,172 59,044 59,827
(2007 $ millions) 1.4 2.1 2.4 2.9 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.3
Total employment (000s) 627 636 633 642 644 646 650 654
0.1 1.5 0.5 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6
Unemployment rate (per cent) 5.4 5.6 6.1 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1
Personal income per capita ($) 39,480 40,853 41,443 42,250 43,020 43,757 44,477 45,312
Population (000s) 1,279 1,295 1,315 1,335 1,355 1,374 1,394 1,414
1.2 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4
Single-family housing starts (000s) 3.1 2.3 2.7 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9 4.1
Multi-family housing starts (000s) 3.1 3.2 2.6 3.7 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8
Retail sales ($ millions) 18,071 18,368 19,147 20,147 20,467 20,737 21,005 21,276
4.4 1.6 4.2 5.2 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.3
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.253 1.268 1.284 1.306 1.335 1.365 1.393 1.422
1.8 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1
Chart 1
Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0)
Manitoba Canada
Forecast
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
f = forecast
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
Chart 2
Industry Outlook, 201721
(average annual compound growth rate)
Summary
After rising by 3.2per cent last year, real GDP growth in Winnipeg is expected
to reach a solid 3.6per cent this year, before slowing sharply to 1.4per cent
in2018.
Despite the looming slowdown, average annual employment growth will remain
steady at 1.4per cent over the next two years, cutting the unemployment rate
from 6.5per cent in 2016 to 5.7per cent in 2018.
Population growth came in at 2.2per cent in 2016, the fastest rate of growth
since data began to be collected in 1988, and is anticipated to average
1.7percent per year between 2017 and 2021.
WINNIPEG
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Winnipegs real GDP growth is expected to hit
a19-year high in 2017.
3.2 3.6 1.4 2.2
i
Housing starts will decline sharply next year.
Credit Quality AA
Source: Standard & Poors.
2016
i
Winnipegs export-oriented manufacturing sector
Homeownership 0.58 could be hurt by U.S. protectionist measures.
Rental 1.11
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 35,525 36,437 37,610 38,983 39,538 40,068 40,659 41,244
(2007 $ millions) 2.6 2.6 3.2 3.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4
Total employment (000s) 411 425 425 430 437 441 444 447
0.2 3.3 0.1 1.3 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.7
Unemployment rate (per cent) 5.8 6.1 6.5 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5
Personal income per capita ($) 42,245 43,897 44,268 44,857 46,045 46,930 47,629 48,424
0.8 3.9 0.8 1.3 2.6 1.9 1.5 1.7
Population (000s) 783 795 812 829 843 857 871 885
1.6 1.5 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
Total housing starts 4,248 4,400 4,054 5,341 4,270 4,280 4,430 4,610
Retail sales ($ millions) 11,048 11,306 11,782 12,359 12,691 12,929 13,093 13,277
4.1 2.3 4.2 4.9 2.7 1.9 1.3 1.4
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.249 1.266 1.281 1.304 1.334 1.363 1.391 1.420
1.9 1.3 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1
However, most industries are expected to post slower growth next year. A large
decline in housing starts will take a bite out of activity both in the construction
sector and in finance, insurance, and real estate. The slowdown in construction,
along with a tepid provincial economy, will more than offset healthy local
manufacturing activity, leading to a dip in transportation and warehousing
outputthe first decline since the 2009 recession. At the same time, activity
will moderate sharply in the wholesale and retail trade sector, in line with slower
consumer spending.
Despite the much slower economic growth, Winnipegs labour market will hold
steady in the near term. The economy is expected to generate a total of some
12,170 net new jobs over 201718, following the creation of 13,750 new jobs
in the two years prior. Job creation will continue but at a slower pace over the
rest of the forecast period, as employment growth is anticipated to average
0.8per cent per year between 2019 and 2021. Slower labour force growth will
push the unemployment rate down from 6.5 per cent in 2016 to 5.5per cent
in 2021. Still,not all news is positive, as several major firms have announced
layoffs over the last few months. Great-West Lifeco is cutting 1,500 positions
in Canada over the next two years, including 450 in Winnipeg, while Investors
Group is eliminating 30jobs. At the same time, the Manitoba government has
asked health authorities and agencies to cut 15per cent of their management
positions. Also, hundreds of support staff at Winnipeg hospitals were told in
September that their jobs will be cut as part of a major restructuring.
Activity remains vibrant for local bus manufacturers and aerospace firms.
NewFlyer Industries posted strong financial results in the first half of the year,
with net earnings of US$80.7milliona 40.6per cent increase from the same
period last year. The bus manufacturer now expects to deliver 3,800 new transit
buses and motor coaches in fiscal year 2017an increase of 8.2 per cent over
fiscal 2016as orders continue to pour in. The City of Winnipeg has extended
its contract with New Flyer and is purchasing 70Xcelsior clean diesel buses
for Winnipeg transit. Also, New Flyer won a contract to provide the Edmonton
Transit Service with 110 diesel buses, with options to purchase an additional
120buses.
The healthy manufacturing output gains have been mirrored in the labour
market, with manufacturing employment increasing at an annual average rate
of 1.2per cent between 2011 and 2016. This trend is expected to continue in
the near term, as manufacturing employment is projected to increase by 3.1per
cent this year, translating into about 1,300 net new jobs. But this rate of growth
is unsustainable, and the sector is expected to give back some of these gains
in2018, shedding close to 500 jobs.
Winnipegs new home market had an impressive start to the year. An outburst
in multiple-unit construction propelled housing starts to over 6,000 units at
seasonally adjusted annual rates in the first half of 2017. Even though we expect
multiple-unit construction activity to fall to more sustainable levels over the rest
of the year, total housing starts are still poised to come in at 5,341 unitstheir
highest level in almost 40years. However, rising inventories will cause builders
on track torise 3.7per centthe strongest gain in 18 years. But weaker local
construction activity and economic weakness in the rest of Manitoba will push
aggregate services output growth down to 1.6per cent next year.
This years vigorous growth has been driven by key sectors such as wholesale
and retail trade and finance, insurance, and real estate. Decent employment and
income growth will lift retail sales by 4.9per cent, boosting wholesale and retail
trade output by a whopping 7.9per cent. The retail sector remains in expansion
mode. The 400,000-square-foot Winnipeg Outlet Collection mall opened its
doors earlier this year. Next year, Lowes plans to open a 95,000-square-foot
store at the Linden Ridge shopping centre. Meanwhile, a balanced resale market
and rising housing starts will drive output growth of 4.4per cent in finance,
insurance, and real estate.
The personal services industry has been another solid contributor, as the low
Canadian dollar and healthy U.S. economy continue to attract tourists to the
region. This has been reflected in strong passenger numbers at Winnipeg
Richardson International Airport, which moved over onemillion passengers
through the airport in the second quarter of 2017an 8.8per cent increase over
the second quarter of 2016. In more positive news for the industry, the federal
and provincial governments are investing $50million to build Canadas Diversity
Gardens at Assiniboine Park.
WINNIPEG
Chart 1 Chart 2
Employment Outlook GDP Outlook
Fin., ins., & real est. 9.5 1.9 Fin., ins., & real est. 4.4 2.2
Information & cultural 6.5 0.1 Information & cultural 1.0 0.5
Trans. & ware. 1.0 0.2 Trans. & ware. 3.4 0.2
Wholesale & retail 0.8 1.1 Wholesale & retail 7.9 1.6
10 5 0 5 10 15 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 1 2 3
Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Winnipeg | The Conference Board of Canada
WINNIPEG
Table 1 Table 2
Sectoral Employment Dominant Industries, 2016
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
Total employment 411.2 424.6 424.9 430.4 437.1 441.1 443.9 447.0 44114543 Retail trade 47.8
0.2 3.3 0.1 1.3 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.7
231129 Construction 29.4
Goods sector 77.6 78.2 81.3 82.0 82.8 83.1 82.9 82.9
6220 Hospitals 24.6
0.5 0.8 3.9 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.0
722124 Food and beverage services 23.8
Manufacturing 42.8 41.7 41.6 42.9 42.4 42.6 42.6 42.5
3.5 2.6 0.2 3.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.3 6111 Primary and secondary schools 21.2
Construction 25.4 28.0 29.5 30.1 30.9 30.6 30.5 30.5 6241 - 6244 Social assistance 15.4
7.0 10.3 5.0 2.2 2.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 621119 Ambulatory health care services 15.4
Primary and utilities 9.4 8.5 10.3 9.1 9.5 9.8 9.8 9.9 411191 Wholesale trade 14.8
0.2 9.3 20.5 11.9 5.2 3.4 0.4 0.5
611217 Post-secondary education 13.8
Services sector 333.5 346.4 343.6 348.3 354.3 357.9 361.0 364.2
6230 Nursing and res. care facilities 13.3
0.2 3.8 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.0 0.9 0.9
Transportation and warehousing 26.3 27.5 24.7 25.0 26.5 25.7 25.4 25.2 *North American Industrial Classification System
Source: Statistics Canada.
4.1 4.7 10.0 1.0 6.1 2.9 1.1 0.9
Information and cultural industries 7.3 6.9 7.6 7.1 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.2
19.7 5.4 9.8 6.5 5.7 3.2 1.0 0.9
Wholesale and retail trade 62.2 63.5 62.6 63.1 64.6 65.0 65.2 65.8 Chart 3
0.6 2.1 1.5 0.8 2.3 0.7 0.4 0.9 Employment Market Variability
Finance, insurance, and real estate 25.6 24.9 25.4 27.8 25.6 26.1 26.0 25.8
0.7 2.5 2.0 9.5 8.1 2.0 0.4 0.8 Fluctuations Compared to Canada
Business services 32.0 35.3 36.6 36.3 35.5 36.2 36.6 37.0
12.2 10.1 3.7 0.8 2.0 1.9 1.1 1.1 Winnipeg 141
Personal services 57.2 60.2 59.8 59.0 61.8 62.6 63.5 64.3 Canada 100
3.9 5.3 0.8 1.3 4.7 1.3 1.5 1.3
0 50 100 150 200
Non-commercial services 99.1 103.4 103.4 103.8 107.1 109.6 111.5 113.4
7.3 4.3 0.0 0.4 3.2 2.3 1.8 1.7
Public administration 23.7 24.6 23.5 26.3 25.7 25.4 25.5 25.5 No link to
1.3 3.6 4.4 11.8 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.1 Canada 39%
Shaded area represents forecast data; italics indicate percentage change. Link to Canada 61%
First line of employment data is in thousands and second line is percentage change.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
METROPOLITAN OUTLOOK 1
Economic Insights Into 13 Canadian EconomiesAutumn2017
WINNIPEG
Table 3 Table 4
Construction, Commercial Real Estate, and Income Overview Real Estate
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 1,034,593 929,569 1,096,643 1,138,492 1,654,602 1,810,772 1,958,112 1,595,990 2,001,393 Downtown office market (2016Q4)
Residential 663,785 539,078 733,800 730,946 929,824 951,925 1,102,800 973,980 997,359 Class A vacancy rate 8.9%
Average Class A net rent ($/sq. ft.) $17.34
Non-residential 370,808 390,491 362,843 407,546 724,778 858,847 855,312 622,010 1,004,034
Suburban office market (2016Q4)
Industrial 37,844 41,212 42,749 30,739 172,501 81,731 63,231 51,145 191,741
Class A vacancy rate 8.4%
Commercial 267,967 247,522 214,087 253,744 411,496 452,974 589,116 390,092 588,128
Average Class A net rent ($/sq. ft.) n.a.
Public admin. 64,997 101,757 106,007 123,063 140,781 324,142 202,965 180,773 224,165
and non-comm. Industrial market (2016Q4)
Employment (000s) 100 100 97 93 98 95 89 92 93 Sources: CBRE; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.
Percentage change 1.7 0.2 3.1 4.3 5.2 2.7 6.7 3.4 1.5
Bankruptcies
Consumer 1,317 1,614 1,301 981 836 776 747 774 913 Chart 5
Business 42 24 26 30 15 18 25 11 12 Economic Structure, 2016
*Information and cultural services; finance, insurance, and real estate; business services; and public administration.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; Industry Canada; CBRE.
Highly diverse = 1
Not diverse = 0
Chart 4 Winnipeg
Personal Income Per Capita, 2016 0.92
($ 000s)
Canada 46.2
Manitoba 41.4
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Winnipeg 44.3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
WINNIPEG
Chart 6 Table 5
Sources of Migration Comparative Employment, 2016
(share of total employment)
International Interprovincial Intercity
Forecast
Sector Winnipeg Manitoba Canada
20,000
Industrial 0.19 0.24 0.21
15,000
10,000 Office 0.22 0.19 0.25
5,000 Transportation and warehousing 0.06 0.06 0.05
0
5,000 Wholesale and retail trade 0.15 0.14 0.15
10,000 Personal services 0.14 0.13 0.13
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Non-commercial services 0.24 0.24 0.20
Chart 7 Chart 8
Housing Starts Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
f = forecast f = forecast
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
Saskatchewan
Summary
Real GDP growth is set to reach 2.7per cent this year but decelerate to
1.7percent in 2018.
Work to replace the Enbridge Line3 crude oil pipeline has commenced.
Investment in thermal heavy oil plants and a new power station will
boostconstruction.
SASKATCHEWAN
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Saskatchewans economy climbed outof two
years of recession in 2017.
1.0 2.7 1.7 1.8
h
Saskatchewan will add an average of 4,360 jobs
Credit Quality
per year between 2017 and 2021.
AA+
Source: Standard & Poors.
Forecast Risk
i
Dry weather across areas in Saskatchewan hurt
crop yields this year.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 60,192 59,389 58,810 60,422 61,430 62,683 63,480 64,582
(2007 $ millions) 2.3 1.3 1.0 2.7 1.7 2.0 1.3 1.7
Total employment (000s) 571 574 569 570 574 581 584 587
1.0 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.6
Unemployment rate (per cent) 3.8 5.0 6.4 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.8
Personal income per capita ($) 45,745 47,242 47,360 47,851 48,839 50,041 50,966 51,976
Population (000s) 1,119 1,132 1,148 1,163 1,177 1,193 1,210 1,226
1.5 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4
Single-family housing starts (000s) 3.8 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.8
Multi-family housing starts (000s) 4.5 2.7 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.9
Retail sales ($ millions) 19,274 18,719 19,135 19,962 20,184 20,696 21,085 21,454
5.0 2.9 2.2 4.3 1.1 2.5 1.9 1.7
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.287 1.308 1.322 1.344 1.375 1.404 1.433 1.463
2.4 1.6 1.1 1.7 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1
Employment is expected to rise by a tiny 0.2per cent this year, then aslightly
stronger 0.7per cent in 2018. Job growth in 2018 will be led by the construction,
health care, and primary (excluding agriculture) industries. Thiswill return
employment to 2015 levels, fully erasing the 2016 dip. This years tiny
employment increase will trim the unemployment rate to 6.2per cent in 2017
Chart 1
Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0)
Saskatchewan Canada
Forecast
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
f = forecast
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
from 6.4per cent in 2016. A further drop to 5.9per cent is on tap for 2018.
Population gains will remain solid at 1.3per cent this year and1.2 per cent
in2018, although this pace lags boom-era growth.
The medium term also looks decent. Employment growth will average just under
1 per cent in 201921, keeping the unemployment rate below 6 per cent, and we
expect the current rate of population growth to continue. As a result, disposable
income is set to make solid gains over the next five years, rising by an average
annual compound rate of 3.3per cent from 2017 to 2021. Rising population,
employment, and incomes will be key underpinnings of steady housing demand.
Saskatchewan housing starts will climb from 4,650 in 2017 to 5,740 in 2021, with
construction of multi-family units driving the increase.
Producers in the oil industry have found more solid footing in 2017 but still face
tepid oil prices. Growth is expected to flatten in 2018, but the industry remains
much healthier than it was two years ago. So far in 2017, strong drilling statistics
already show boosted production. Moreover, energy-related investment is
expected to rise by 67.7per cent in 2017and 19.9per cent in 2018. Key projects
include the Enbridge Line3 crude oil pipeline replacement, construction of the
Chinook power station, and work on new thermal oil projects.
Saskatchewans non-oil mining sector will gather strength in 2018. The metal
mining industry will grow by 7.7per cent and the non-metal mining industry by
6.4per cent as improving market conditions and enhanced potash production
capacity bolster producer opportunities. Should this momentum continue,
Saskatchewans potash industry will regain prosperity. While the uranium
market remains depressed, its potential usefulness in producing clean power
is keeping it relevant. Although it may take some time, it is still hoped that the
industry will recover from the Fukushima nuclear power plant catastrophe.
Chart 2
Industry Outlook, 201721
(average annual compound growth rate)
Renewed employment gains will help lift retail sales 4.3per cent this year and
afurther 1.1per cent in 2018. Sales will grow an average of 2.1 per cent annually
in 201921. These sales will cost consumers a little more this year; the spring
provincial budget hiked Saskatchewans sale tax from 5per cent to 6per cent.
This increase will, however, be mitigated by a provincial income tax cut.
Summary
The worst appears over. Following two soft years, real GDP growth will hit
2.9per cent in Regina in 2017 and remain above 2per cent in 2018.
Employment is forecast to rise 1.0per cent in 2017 and a further 0.8per cent
in2017; the unemployment rate will fall to 5.2per cent in 2017, but rise to
5.3percent in 2018.
REGINA
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 The return to GDP growth is good news for
thiscity.
0.0 2.9 2.2 2.6
h
Inventories of unsold new homes are falling,
helping to stabilize the housing market.
2016
i
An unexpected lurch downward in commodity
Homeownership 0.63 prices would be hard on Reginas economy.
Rental 1.15
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 14,107 14,010 14,014 14,425 14,733 15,063 15,380 15,718
(2007 $ millions) 4.0 0.7 0.0 2.9 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.2
Total employment (000s) 137 138 139 141 142 144 146 148
0.3 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.4
Unemployment rate (per cent) 3.7 4.4 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.2
Personal income per capita ($) 51,356 53,237 52,727 53,038 53,892 54,893 55,989 57,058
1.0 3.7 1.0 0.6 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.9
Population (000s) 237 241 247 253 257 262 267 272
2.5 1.8 2.6 2.3 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9
Total housing starts 2,223 1,597 1,563 1,860 1,761 1,729 1,751 1,864
Retail sales ($ millions) 5,582 5,478 5,596 5,872 5,965 6,128 6,295 6,434
5.3 1.9 2.2 4.9 1.6 2.7 2.7 2.2
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.297 1.315 1.329 1.351 1.382 1.411 1.441 1.470
2.3 1.4 1.0 1.7 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1
Perhaps Reginas most optimistic sign is its continued ability to attract migrants.
We expect annual net inflows to average just above 3,100 people in 201721,
starting with this years expected 2,800 newcomers. The days of Regina losing
people to other cities, as it did in 17 of 19 years through 2006, are long over.
Accordingly, Reginas population will rise 2.3per cent this year, a further 1.7per
cent in 2018, and just under 2per cent annually between 2019 and 2021.
The future appears set for steel-pipe-maker Evraz after mediated contract
negotiations between the firm and the United Steelworkers achieved an
agreement. A strike had loomed over the firms request for rollbacks in worker
benefits and conditions. The steelworkers had been without a contract since
July2016.
The Railyard Renewal Project, a plan to link Reginas warehouse district to its
downtown core, received a boost in June when the Federation of Canadian
Municipalities awarded the City of Regina $175,000 from its Green Municipal
Fund. This project is the second stage in the Regina Revitalization Initiative,
which was kicked off by the Mosaic stadium construction. A third stage in this
initiative will feature development of the adjacent neighbourhood into a new
mixed-use residential and commercial district.
Sagging housing starts and a resale market facing buyers conditions trimmed
output growth in finance, insurance, and real estate, Reginas largest industry,
from 4.7per cent in 2015 to 3.6per cent last year. A further deceleration in
output growth to 2.8per cent is on tap for 2017, followed by another dip to
2.7per cent in 2018 as conditions remain uninspiring in both the new and
existing housing markets.
Output of the wholesale and retail trade industry sagged 0.6per cent last year,
the second straight annual decline. The drop came against a backdrop of soft
employment, falling per capita personal income, weak consumer confidence,
and retail sales growth less than half its 20-year average. A slight employment
acceleration underpins our call for a resumption of per capita income growth
and faster retail sales expansion. That, along with the bounce-back in goods
sector activity, has allowed wholesale and retail trade growth to rebound smartly,
hitting 11per cent in 2017. This pace is unsustainable, however, so the industrys
growth will decelerate to 2.0per cent in 2018. News from the sector includes
approval by Reginas city council of a new and larger Costco warehouse to
replace one built in 1993.
REGINA
Chart 1 Chart 2
Employment Outlook GDP Outlook
Fin., ins., & real est. 6.2 1.6 Fin., ins., & real est. 2.8 3.0
Information & cultural 7.9 2.3 Information & cultural 2.6 1.2
Trans. & ware. 3.0 2.9 Trans. & ware. 3.0 1.6
Wholesale & retail 2.0 0.2 Wholesale & retail 11.1 2.1
10 5 0 5 10 4 2 0 2 4 3 0 3 6 9 12 15 0 1 2 3 4
Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
METROPOLITAN OUTLOOK 1
Economic Insights Into 13 Canadian EconomiesAutumn2017
REGINA
Table 1 Table 2
Sectoral Employment Dominant Industries, 2016
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
Total employment 136.8 138.1 139.2 140.6 141.7 143.7 145.8 147.8 44114543 Retail trade 16.4
0.3 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.4
231129 Construction 12.2
Goods sector 26.9 25.0 23.6 24.3 24.3 24.8 25.1 25.3
6220 Hospitals 8.5
8.4 7.0 5.3 3.0 0.3 2.1 1.4 0.7
722124 Food and beverage services 8.2
Manufacturing 6.9 7.0 6.4 7.8 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4
2.0 1.3 8.9 23.4 6.7 1.5 0.1 0.3 411191 Wholesale trade 6.1
Construction 13.8 12.9 12.2 11.1 11.7 12.3 12.7 12.8 9120 Provincial government 5.8
13.2 6.3 5.3 8.8 5.5 4.9 2.7 1.3 6111 Primary and secondary schools 5.0
Primary and utilities 6.2 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.1 5211, 522123, Finance 4.8
10.8 17.7 0.5 5.8 3.1 3.6 0.4 0.5 523139
Services sector 109.9 113.1 115.5 116.2 117.4 119.0 120.6 122.6 624144 Social assistance 4.8
1.4 2.9 2.2 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6
524142, 526169 Insurance carriers & related 4.3
Transportation and warehousing 5.9 7.4 5.4 5.2 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 activities
3.0 25.3 26.7 3.0 8.0 2.7 0.2 0.7
*North American Industrial Classification System
Information and cultural industries 3.2 4.3 3.9 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 Source: Statistics Canada.
4.7 32.1 9.2 7.9 7.9 0.4 0.5 0.0
Wholesale and retail trade 21.0 20.0 22.5 23.0 22.9 22.8 22.9 23.2
3.5 4.5 12.5 2.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0
Chart 3
Finance, insurance, and real estate 11.1 11.5 11.2 10.5 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.2 Employment Market Variability
5.7 3.9 2.5 6.2 4.9 0.4 0.5 1.3
Business services 12.8 12.8 12.8 13.7 11.9 12.4 12.6 12.8 Fluctuations Compared to Canada
6.5 0.2 0.1 7.2 13.5 4.6 1.7 1.7
Personal services 17.1 19.0 19.6 19.2 20.9 21.2 21.7 22.1 Regina 238
7.6 10.9 3.4 2.1 8.5 1.6 2.6 1.7
Canada 100
Non-commercial services 27.6 26.6 29.1 29.1 30.2 30.9 31.6 32.4
1.4 3.6 9.3 0.0 3.8 2.2 2.4 2.6 0 100 200 300
Public administration 11.2 11.5 11.0 11.2 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.1
3.6 2.4 4.7 2.5 1.9 0.4 0.2 0.9
No link to
Shaded area represents forecast data; italics indicate percentage change. Canada 51%
First line of employment data is in thousands and second line is percentage change.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Link to Canada 49%
REGINA
Table 3 Table 4
Construction, Commercial Real Estate, and Income Overview Real Estate
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 456,669 554,922 523,722 646,542 917,667 863,560 706,396 795,446 681,303 New housing market (2016)
Residential 259,354 209,219 252,340 346,332 535,113 543,325 371,463 280,847 335,508 Single-detached absorptions 703
Growth 1.0%
Non-residential 197,315 345,703 271,382 300,210 382,554 320,235 334,933 514,599 345,795
Average price of absorbed single-detached units $518,752
Industrial 54,971 76,013 43,560 23,496 44,249 25,781 40,442 82,888 23,431
Growth 2.1%
Commercial 86,924 229,598 181,546 200,376 264,172 175,175 248,667 312,228 148,361
Resale housing market (2016)
Public admin. 55,420 40,092 46,276 76,338 74,133 119,279 45,824 119,483 174,003
and non-comm. Unit sales 3,481
Growth 5.6%
Office sector*
Average price $313,903
No. of square feet 5,685 5,749 5,791 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Growth 0.3%
(000s)
Percentage change 2.5 1.1 0.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Apartment market (October 2016)
Vacancy rate (%) 1.1 0.8 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Two-bedroom vacancy rate 5.4%
Average two-bedroom rent $1,114
Employment (000s) 34 35 35 38 38 37 38 40 39
Percentage change 0.9 2.6 0.2 7.7 0.3 1.4 2.1 4.6 3.0 Sources: CMHC Housing Time Series Database; Canadian Real Estate
Association.
Bankruptcies
Consumer 320 353 291 214 150 173 226 201 236
Business 24 37 24 26 15 14 20 26 29
Chart 5
*Information and cultural services; finance, insurance, and real estate; business services; and public administration. Economic Structure, 2016
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; Industry Canada; CBRE.
Canada 46.2
Sasktachewan 47.4
Regina 52.7
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
REGINA
Chart 6 Table 5
Sources of Migration Comparative Employment, 2016
(share of total employment)
International Interprovincial Intercity
Forecast
Sector Regina Saskatchewan Canada
8,000
Industrial 0.17 0.26 0.21
6,000
Office 0.28 0.19 0.25
4,000
2,000 Transportation and warehousing 0.04 0.05 0.05
0 Wholesale and retail trade 0.16 0.16 0.15
2,000 Personal services 0.14 0.13 0.13
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Non-commercial services 0.21 0.21 0.20
Chart 7 Chart 8
Housing Starts Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
1.0 1.0
0.9
0.5 0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f 2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
f = forecast f = forecast
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
Saskatoon
Summary
Real GDP will rise 3.6per cent in 2017 in Saskatoon and 2.0per cent in 2018
following two annual contractions.
Employment is forecast to increase 0.8per cent in 2017 and 1.2per cent in 2018
after a 0.6per cent dip in 2016. Still, the unemployment rate will hit 8.1per cent
this year before dropping to 6.6per cent in 2018.
SASKATOON
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Saskatoon enjoyed brisk net in-migration during
2016, despite poor economic conditions.
0.8 3.6 2.2 2.7
i
Housing starts will hit a post-recession low
in2017.
2016
i
Weaker-than-expected commodity prices continue
Homeownership 0.69 to threaten Saskatchewan and thus Saskatoon.
Rental 1.14
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 17,517 17,327 17,195 17,810 18,159 18,596 19,032 19,467
(2007 $ millions) 5.2 1.1 0.8 3.6 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.3
Total employment (000s) 169 170 168 170 172 175 178 181
2.9 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.6
Unemployment rate (per cent) 4.2 5.8 6.9 8.1 6.6 6.4 6.5 6.4
Personal income per capita ($) 48,115 49,840 48,738 49,018 49,849 50,894 52,033 53,029
1.1 3.6 2.2 0.6 1.7 2.1 2.2 1.9
Population (000s) 299 306 315 323 329 336 343 350
2.8 2.3 3.2 2.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0
Total housing starts 3,531 2,293 1,909 1,662 1,779 2,085 2,192 2,418
Retail sales ($ millions) 7,158 7,052 7,150 7,524 7,630 7,851 8,083 8,269
5.5 1.5 1.4 5.2 1.4 2.9 3.0 2.3
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.286 1.310 1.326 1.349 1.379 1.409 1.438 1.468
2.3 1.9 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1
Even though the sector has been expanding, manufacturing employment fell
2.3per cent last year, the third straight annual decline, implying output increases
have come solely through productivity gains. But job growth resumed in the
spring, and we think manufacturing employment will end 2017 up 6.2per
cent. A further gain of 2.3per cent is on tap for 2018. Even these increases,
however, will leave local manufacturing employment 1,700 jobs below its recent
2013peak.
News from the sector includes the purchase of International Road Dynamics
(IRD), a company that builds transportation systems technology, by Ottawa-
based Quarterhill, a technology-focused investment holding company. The deal
will not affect IRDs Saskatoon operations.
The worst appears to be over, though. Permit values through June this year
equalled their year-earlier level, led by a pickup on the residential side.
Thesewill trickle through to housing starts over the next year or so. Accordingly,
we expect construction output to rise nearly 1per cent this year and a further
1.8per cent in 2018.
Two major office towers are planned for Saskatoons downtown core despite a
weak local commercial real estate market. The World Trade Center Saskatoon is
a nine-storey, $50-million office building proposed for the corner of ThirdAvenue
and 22nd Street. Developer Canwest Commercial & Land Corp. has pushed
its construction start date from summer to fall. Meanwhile, a consortium of
developers is planning a three-tower hotel-condominium-office development
on Parcel Y at River Landing. A construction start on the first of two office
towersa 13-storey buildingis said to be imminent. Ultimately, the project
willalso include a 20-storey condo tower and a 155-room hotel.
SASKATOON
Chart 1 Chart 2
Employment Outlook GDP Outlook
Fin., ins., & real est. 6.7 0.7 Fin., ins., & real est. 2.6 3.0
Information & cultural 16.7 1.6 Information & cultural 1.9 1.5
Trans. & ware. 3.8 1.6 Trans. & ware. 3.0 1.9
Wholesale & retail 6.4 0.1 Wholesale & retail 11.2 2.1
20 15 10 5 0 5 10 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 5 10 15 0 1 2 3 4
Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
METROPOLITAN OUTLOOK 1
Economic Insights Into 13 Canadian EconomiesAutumn2017
SASKATOON
Table 1 Table 2
Sectoral Employment Dominant Industries, 2016
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
Total employment 168.7 169.6 168.5 169.8 171.8 175.1 178.3 181.1 44114543 Retail trade 19.5
2.9 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.6
231129 Construction 17.8
Goods sector 41.6 39.3 36.1 36.8 37.1 37.8 38.2 38.5
6220 Hospitals 11.1
1.2 5.4 8.3 1.9 0.9 1.8 1.2 0.9
722124 Food and beverage services 11.0
Manufacturing 10.5 9.3 9.1 9.7 9.9 10.0 9.9 9.9
8.3 10.6 2.3 6.2 2.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 611217 Post-secondary education 8.7
Construction 19.8 20.3 17.8 17.6 17.9 18.6 19.0 19.3 411191 Wholesale trade 7.5
4.0 2.5 12.1 1.4 1.6 3.9 2.3 1.5 6111 Primary and secondary schools 7.2
Primary and utilities 11.3 9.7 9.1 9.5 9.3 9.2 9.3 9.4 210031 Mining, oil, gas extraction 5.9
6.3 14.3 6.1 4.1 1.9 0.8 0.6 0.9
621119 Ambulatory health care services 5.0
Services sector 127.1 130.2 132.4 133.1 134.7 137.3 140.1 142.6
624144 Social assistance 4.4
3.5 2.4 1.7 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.8
Transportation and warehousing 9.4 8.8 8.4 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.6 8.6 *North American Industrial Classification System
Source: Statistics Canada.
2.4 6.6 4.6 3.8 3.3 1.7 0.9 0.4
Information and cultural industries 2.1 2.8 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
27.3 30.8 10.1 16.7 5.6 0.3 0.1 0.4
Wholesale and retail trade 25.6 26.1 27.0 28.7 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.6 Chart 3
9.9 2.1 3.4 6.4 1.5 0.2 0.7 0.7 Employment Market Variability
Finance, insurance, and real estate 9.2 8.1 8.1 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.7
17.5 12.2 0.4 6.7 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.6 Fluctuations Compared to Canada
Business services 14.2 14.4 16.0 17.1 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.6
4.6 1.9 10.6 6.8 3.0 1.8 2.5 2.1 Saskatoon 260
Personal services 21.9 23.6 23.2 22.1 23.1 24.0 24.6 24.9 Canada 100
3.3 8.0 1.9 4.8 4.6 4.0 2.7 1.1
0 100 200 300
Non-commercial services 37.3 39.1 39.5 40.0 41.1 42.3 43.7 45.0
3.2 4.9 1.1 1.1 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2
Public administration 7.4 7.2 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 No link to
0.5 2.5 6.4 2.0 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.9 Canada 50%
Shaded area represents forecast data; italics indicate percentage change. Link to Canada 50%
First line of employment data is in thousands and second line is percentage change.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Saskatoon | The Conference Board of Canada
SASKATOON
Table 3 Table 4
Construction, Commercial Real Estate, and Income Overview Real Estate
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 912,475 659,620 859,517 1,144,413 1,290,934 1,386,462 1,100,392 1,245,612 867,453 New housing market (2016)
Residential 361,991 277,031 491,142 699,788 829,807 794,262 761,415 583,249 462,702 Single-detached absorptions 1,061
Growth 17.2%
Non-residential 550,484 382,589 368,375 444,625 461,127 592,200 338,977 662,363 404,751
Average price of absorbed single-detached units $460,614
Industrial 158,348 60,787 63,517 51,829 57,131 108,682 41,931 50,158 28,711
Growth 2.0%
Commercial 210,638 133,528 219,956 278,981 240,901 351,165 220,740 334,432 234,673
Resale housing market (2016)
Public admin. 181,498 188,274 84,902 113,815 163,095 132,353 76,306 277,773 141,367
and non-comm. Unit sales 4,826
Growth 7.5%
Office sector*
Average price $338,738
No. of square feet n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Growth 1.2%
(000s)
Percentage change n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Apartment market (October 2016)
Vacancy rate (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Two-bedroom vacancy rate 10.4%
Average two-bedroom rent $1,102
Employment (000s) 29 32 30 29 29 33 33 33 34
Percentage change 3.3 10.3 5.6 4.2 0.9 14.2 0.3 1.1 5.2 Sources: CMHC Housing Time Series Database; Canadian Real Estate
Association.
Bankruptcies
Consumer 317 425 406 349 292 301 292 263 376
Business 31 35 24 22 18 11 18 13 14
Chart 5
*Information and cultural services; finance, insurance, and real estate; business services; and public administration. Economic Structure, 2016
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; Industry Canada; CBRE.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada;
Statistics Canada.
Canada 46.2
Saskatchewan 47.4
Saskatoon 48.7
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
SASKATOON
Chart 6 Table 5
Sources of Migration Comparative Employment, 2016
(share of total employment)
International Interprovincial Intercity
Forecast
Sector Saskatoon Saskatchewan Canada
10,000
Industrial 0.21 0.26 0.21
8,000
6,000 Office 0.20 0.19 0.25
4,000 Transportation and warehousing 0.05 0.05 0.05
2,000
0 Wholesale and retail trade 0.16 0.16 0.15
2,000 Personal services 0.14 0.13 0.13
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Non-commercial services 0.23 0.21 0.20
Chart 7 Chart 8
Housing Starts Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
f = forecast f = forecast
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
Alberta
Summary
The provinces recovery from the oil price crash will lose speed next year
asoilprices struggle to rise.
The housing market has improved, but there are concerns of overbuilding
inCalgary.
ALBERTA
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Real household consumer spending leads all
other provinces by a significant margin and
3.6 4.4 1.9 1.9
isforecast to increase strongly this year.
Shaded area represents forecast data.
i
Drilling rebounded swiftly in 2017 but is not
Credit Quality
expected to repeat that performance in 2018.
A+
Source: Standard & Poors.
Forecast Risk
i
Much uncertainty exists about major pipeline
projects; if they do not proceed, energy
investment growth next year will be lower
thanforecast.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 311,083 299,603 288,882 301,467 307,014 312,378 318,821 325,514
(2007 $ millions) 4.9 3.7 3.6 4.4 1.8 1.7 2.1 2.1
Total employment (000s) 2,273 2,301 2,265 2,288 2,315 2,332 2,362 2,394
2.2 1.2 1.6 1.0 1.2 0.7 1.3 1.4
Unemployment rate (per cent) 4.7 6.0 8.1 7.9 6.9 6.5 6.0 5.6
Personal income per capita ($) 56,503 57,298 56,068 56,233 57,382 58,358 59,730 61,315
Population (000s) 4,092 4,172 4,243 4,303 4,377 4,456 4,535 4,611
2.8 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7
Single-family housing starts (000s) 19.6 14.6 11.4 14.0 14.2 14.9 14.8 15.1
Multi-family housing starts (000s) 21.0 22.7 13.1 14.4 15.0 16.3 16.4 16.9
Retail sales ($ millions) 79,147 76,019 75,110 80,962 82,803 84,369 86,645 89,023
7.9 4.0 1.2 7.8 2.3 1.9 2.7 2.7
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.322 1.337 1.352 1.378 1.409 1.442 1.471 1.502
2.6 1.2 1.1 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.1
Still, energy investment will improve in Alberta over the near term, thanks to
pipeline investment, which hit an all-time high of close to $6billion in 2016 and
is projected to increase rapidly throughout the second half of this year and until
late 2020. Forecast growth is being driven by an increase of about $15billion
inprojects to export crude oil, including Kinder Morgans Trans Mountain
Albertas housing market has turned the corner, with housing starts expected
to rise from 24,500 units in 2016, to 28,400 units in 2017, and to just above
29,000units in 2018. The rebuilding of fire-ravaged Fort McMurray is providing
a lift, but housing construction is also up in major centres of the province.
However, there are downside risks to housing starts, as inventories of newly built
but unoccupied semi-detached units, row homes, and apartments have been
rising steadily in Calgary and are well above their 10-year averages. A pullback
in this segment of the market is possible.
Chart 1
Industry Outlook, 201721
(average annual compound growth rate)
Consumer Outlook
Alberta is beginning to create jobs again, with employment expected to grow
by more than 22,000 in 2017, a 1.0 per cent increase. However, over 90per
cent of these new jobs will be in the public sector (education, health, and
public administration). In 2018 that will begin to shift, with the majority of the
27,000new jobs forecast for next year in the private sector. The unemployment
rate will decline from 8.1per cent in 2016 to 7.9per cent in 2017 and then
continue to fall over the forecast period to a low of 5.6per cent in 2021.
Chart 2
Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0)
Alberta Canada
Forecast
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
f = forecast
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
Meanwhile, wages are also expected to pick up in 2017, but their growth will
remain below inflation, advancing by 0.6per cent after declining 1.4per cent
last year. Wage growth will rise to 2.5per cent in 2018 and should remain
aboveinflation for most of the rest of the forecast.
Summary
Calgarys economy is on track to surge by 4.6per cent this year before slowing
to 2.1per cent growth in 2018.
The unemployment rate is falling but is projected to remain above the national
average until 2021.
CALGARY
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Increased activity in the energy sector
ishelpingboost Calgarys economy after
3.2 4.6 2.4 2.3
twoyearsof declines.
Out of 13 CMAs #12 #1 #2 #6
h
A number of residential and non-residential
construction projects will raise construction
Credit Quality AA+ outputthis year for the first time since 2014.
2016
h
The impact of recent flooding and hurricanes
Homeownership 0.96 on U.S. oil production may lead to higher-
thanexpected oil prices.
Rental 1.31
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 120,543 116,887 113,151 118,336 120,767 123,541 126,620 129,953
(2007 $ millions) 5.6 3.0 3.2 4.6 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.6
Total employment (000s) 799 816 804 825 834 846 861 878
2.5 2.1 1.5 2.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.0
Unemployment rate (per cent) 5.0 6.4 9.4 8.7 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.8
Personal income per capita ($) 62,341 63,905 63,552 64,717 66,172 67,386 68,773 70,373
3.1 2.5 0.6 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.1 2.3
Population (000s) 1,402 1,434 1,469 1,499 1,527 1,558 1,592 1,625
3.5 2.3 2.5 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1
Total housing starts 17,131 13,033 9,245 11,989 12,184 12,708 12,943 13,205
Retail sales ($ millions) 29,305 28,540 28,885 31,479 32,096 32,855 33,849 34,924
8.8 2.6 1.2 9.0 2.0 2.4 3.0 3.2
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.327 1.343 1.356 1.382 1.413 1.446 1.475 1.506
3.0 1.2 1.0 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.1
While there has been improvement in oil prices over the past year, the increases
have been gradual. Production increases, especially in U.S. shale oil, have put a
lid on prices in recent months and, as a result, oil prices are expected to remain
below their pre-recession highs for several years. This suggests that the current
pace of economic growth in Calgary is unsustainable. Indeed, we expect real
GDP growth to slow to 2.1per cent next year. Employment is expected to follow
suit, rising by a more moderate 1.1per cent. Fortunately, this will be enough
to keep Calgarys unemployment rate on a downward trend. Unemployment is
expected to slip to 7.7per cent by 2018, down from a 22-year high of 9.4per
cent last year. Still, Calgarys unemployment rate is expected to remain above
the national average until 2021.
Unfortunately, the WTI oil price slipped closer to US$40 per barrel at the end of
June, and while there has been some movement upward since then, production
increases have kept prices just under US$50. Although we expect prices to keep
rising in the coming years, increases will be gradual, as U.S. shale producers
have developed the tendency to boost production quickly in response to rising
prices. This is expected to moderate investment plans through next year. Asa
result, output growth in the primary and utilities sector is forecast to slow to
1.9per cent per year over 2018 and 2019, while manufacturing output growth
is expected to decelerate to 2.7 per cent annually. Business services output,
which has been slower to respond to the recovery this year, is forecast to rise
by3.1per cent in 2018, with growth slowing to 2.1per cent in 2019.
just 5per cent in 2014 to 9.4 per cent in 2016its highest level in 22years. As a
result, personal disposable income growth dipped to a seven-year low of 2.1per
cent last year. All told, these conditions made for a weary consumer. Retail
sales fell 2.6per cent in 2015 before rising by a modest 1.2per cent in 2016.
Not surprising then, output in the wholesale and retail trade sector contracted
by3.2per cent in 2015 and increased by a meagre 0.5 per cent last year.
In the residential sector, builders reduced housing starts by almost 24per cent
in 2015 and another 29per cent in 2016 as demand fell in line with the struggling
economy and labour market, lowering them to 9,200 units last year, a far cry
from the record 17,100 units started in 2014. Still, even with these declines,
levels of completed but unoccupied units have remained stubbornly high.
Butwith the pickup in the energy sector and the resulting gains in employment,
demand for housing is now returning. The new home market is also being
helped by a recent year-over-year decline in listings in the resale housing
market. As a result, builders are returning to the market. Permits for a number
ofcondominiums, including the Crosstown towers and the Aris tower, along with
a new seniors residence, were all approved in the last few months. Housing
starts are expected to rise to 12,000 units this year and 12,200 units in 2018.
The one area where construction spending is expected to remain weak over
the next few years is the office sector. The combination of significant new office
construction and energy sector layoffs pushed Calgarys office vacancy rate up
to a 30-year high of 25per cent in 2016. It has continued to climb even higher in
2017, reaching almost 28per cent by mid-year. Even with employment increases
this year and next, it is expected to take many years for enough empty space
to be absorbed to convince construction to begin anew. All in all, construction
output is forecast to grow by 1.7per cent in 2017 and 2.8per cent next year.
CALGARY
Chart 1 Chart 2
Employment Outlook GDP Outlook
Fin., ins., & real est. 4.3 0.8 Fin., ins., & real est. 3.1 3.2
Information & cultural 1.1 1.9 Information & cultural 0.0 1.7
Trans. & ware. 18.7 0.3 Trans. & ware. 3.5 2.1
Wholesale & retail 1.9 1.6 Wholesale & retail 7.0 1.6
15 0 15 30 1 0 1 2 3 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 2 3 4
Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Calgary | The Conference Board of Canada
CALGARY
Table 1 Table 2
Sectoral Employment Dominant Industries, 2016
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
Total employment 799.1 816.1 803.6 825.3 834.1 845.6 860.8 877.6 44114543 Retail trade 89.3
2.5 2.1 1.5 2.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.0
231129 Construction 78.5
Goods sector 201.0 189.6 183.6 169.8 179.3 178.6 181.0 183.5
210031 Mining, oil, gas extraction 52.8
3.2 5.7 3.2 7.5 5.6 0.4 1.4 1.4
722124 Food and beverage services 41.4
Manufacturing 49.2 46.7 41.0 40.2 41.5 42.4 42.9 43.2
6.5 5.1 12.3 1.8 3.1 2.2 1.2 0.8 541314 Architectural, engineering, and 35.3
design services
Construction 83.8 76.5 78.5 71.9 77.1 74.5 75.9 77.4
6220 Hospitals 32.0
5.2 8.7 2.6 8.4 7.2 3.3 1.9 1.9
411191 Wholesale trade 28.7
Primary and utilities 67.9 66.3 64.1 57.7 60.8 61.7 62.2 62.9
1.4 2.4 3.4 10.0 5.5 1.5 0.8 1.2 6111 Primary and secondary schools 26.1
Services sector 598.1 626.5 620.0 655.5 654.8 667.1 679.7 694.1 621119 Ambulatory health care services 25.6
2.3 4.8 1.0 5.7 0.1 1.9 1.9 2.1
611217 Post-secondary education 24.0
Transportation and warehousing 49.4 55.9 47.7 56.7 53.1 55.0 55.5 56.1
*North American Industrial Classification System
8.8 13.1 14.6 18.7 6.3 3.6 0.9 1.0
Source: Statistics Canada.
Information and cultural industries 13.2 13.9 11.6 11.5 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.4
2.9 5.4 16.2 1.1 6.5 0.2 0.4 0.7
Wholesale and retail trade 109.4 115.3 118.0 120.3 122.8 124.0 126.1 128.0
7.2 5.4 2.3 1.9 2.1 1.0 1.7 1.5
Chart 3
Finance, insurance, and real estate 44.9 44.1 44.4 46.4 47.0 47.0 47.1 47.9
Employment Market Variability
6.9 1.9 0.8 4.3 1.3 0.0 0.4 1.6
Fluctuations Compared to Canada
Business services 127.2 117.7 126.7 124.2 125.0 127.0 129.1 131.2
0.2 7.4 7.6 2.0 0.7 1.6 1.7 1.6
Calgary 202
Personal services 104.6 114.0 110.4 117.4 116.9 118.1 120.1 122.6
1.2 9.0 3.2 6.3 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.1 Canada 100
Non-commercial services 126.6 141.7 138.7 151.7 149.2 155.3 160.4 166.4
0 50 100 150 200 250
0.7 11.9 2.2 9.4 1.6 4.1 3.3 3.7
Public administration 22.7 23.9 22.5 27.4 28.5 28.4 29.0 29.6
0.8 5.3 5.7 21.8 3.9 0.4 2.2 1.9 No link to
Canada 34%
Shaded area represents forecast data; italics indicate percentage change.
First line of employment data is in thousands and second line is percentage change. Link to Canada 66%
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
CALGARY
Table 3 Table 4
Construction, Commercial Real Estate, and Income Overview Real Estate
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 4,719,022 4,285,021 3,540,508 5,187,388 5,247,841 7,144,015 7,328,802 7,166,398 5,423,348 Downtown office market (2016Q4)
Residential 1,976,359 1,874,297 2,218,756 2,723,589 3,268,702 4,323,267 4,574,770 4,391,551 3,387,304 Class A vacancy rate 25.0%
Average Class A net rent ($/sq. ft.) $19.59
Non-residential 2,742,663 2,410,724 1,321,752 2,463,799 1,979,139 2,820,748 2,754,032 2,774,847 2,036,044
Suburban office market (2016Q4)
Industrial 202,063 82,713 175,183 759,355 264,720 225,279 181,947 230,333 94,111
Class A vacancy rate 21.8%
Commercial 1,764,836 1,261,143 805,517 1,433,694 1,403,101 2,223,951 2,138,866 1,599,618 1,402,593
Average Class A net rent ($/sq. ft.) $21.19
Public admin. 775,764 1,066,868 341,052 270,750 311,318 371,518 433,219 944,896 539,340
and non-comm. Industrial market (2016Q4)
Employment (000s) 203 195 186 188 195 205 208 200 205 Sources: CBRE; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.
Percentage change 7.5 4.1 4.8 1.4 3.4 5.5 1.2 4.0 2.8
Bankruptcies
Consumer 1,846 3,128 2,688 2,496 2,163 1,555 1,178 1,237 1,390 Chart 5
Business 176 147 116 95 86 74 41 38 53 Economic Structure, 2016
*Information and cultural services; finance, insurance, and real estate; business services; and public administration.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; Industry Canada; CBRE.
Highly diverse = 1
Not diverse = 0
Chart 4 Calgary
Personal Income Per Capita, 2016 0.79
($ 000s)
Canada 46.2
Alberta 56.1
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Calgary 63.6
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
CALGARY
Chart 6 Table 5
Sources of Migration Comparative Employment, 2016
(share of total employment)
International Interprovincial Intercity
Forecast
Sector Calgary Alberta Canada
40,000
Industrial 0.23 0.26 0.21
30,000
Office 0.26 0.22 0.25
20,000
10,000 Transportation and warehousing 0.06 0.06 0.05
0 Wholesale and retail trade 0.15 0.15 0.15
10,000 Personal services 0.14 0.14 0.13
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Non-commercial services 0.17 0.19 0.20
Chart 7 Chart 8
Housing Starts Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
f = forecast f = forecast
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
Edmonton
Summary
Slow employment growth and a fast-growing labour force will keep Edmontons
unemployment rate above 8per cent in 2017.
EDMONTON
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 The large and growing public sector helped
stabilize the economy and employment in
3.4 3.9 2.3 2.4
thewake of the oil shock.
Out of 13 CMAs #13 #2 #3 #5
h
Consumers are opening their purse strings
in2017, boosting retail sales by more than
2016
h
Medium-term construction output in
Homeownership 0.76 Edmontonmay be higher than expected
iftheTrans Mountain pipeline goes ahead.
Rental 1.28
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 90,247 87,341 84,382 87,675 89,635 91,639 93,862 96,107
(2007 $ millions) 5.1 3.2 3.4 3.9 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4
Total employment (000s) 744 762 762 765 774 786 799 814
2.3 2.4 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.8
Unemployment rate (per cent) 5.2 5.9 7.3 8.2 7.4 6.3 5.9 5.5
Personal income per capita ($) 53,577 55,657 54,164 53,990 55,214 56,456 57,709 59,118
2.0 3.9 2.7 0.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.4
Population (000s) 1,328 1,359 1,393 1,422 1,447 1,474 1,502 1,530
3.5 2.4 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9
Total housing starts 13,872 17,050 10,036 11,716 10,930 11,609 11,907 12,380
Retail sales ($ millions) 26,773 26,452 26,188 28,361 29,033 29,721 30,626 31,553
7.6 1.2 1.0 8.3 2.4 2.4 3.0 3.0
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.318 1.334 1.349 1.375 1.406 1.438 1.467 1.498
2.2 1.2 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.1
But higher oil prices have led to renewed growth in Edmonton this year. As oil
companies have increased investment and drilling plans, the region has started
to see increased economic activity. Both the primary and utilities industry and
manufacturing are expected to post strong gains in 2017. And with housing starts
set to rise, output in the construction sector is also expected to bounce back.
The outlook for the economy over the next couple of years is more modest.
While oil prices have risen, they remain below pre-recession levels and are
expected to show only gradual increases over the next few years. This will keep
oil companies from making new large-scale investments and dampen growth in
drilling. As a result, economic growth is forecast to slow to 2.2per cent in each
of 2018 and 2019, although this will still be enough to support stronger job gains.
Accordingly, Edmontons unemployment rate will fall back somewhat to 7.4per
cent next year.
Fortunately, oil prices have since begun to improve. A late 2016 agreement
by 24OPEC and non-OPEC countries to cut crude oil production by
1.8millionbarrels per day helped push prices above US$50 per barrel in the
first half of 2017. This had given oil companies the confidence to boost their
investment and drilling plans. As a result, output in Edmontons primary and
utilities sector is forecast to advance by 7.2per cent this year, while output in
itsmanufacturing sector is expected to grow by 5.6per cent. The manufacturing
sector is also benefitting from new oil sands production that is coming online
thisyear.
However, the WTI oil price slipped to nearly US$40 in late June and has hovered
just below US$50 since. Only modest gains are forecast for the next couple of
years as well. This is expected to keep oil companies from investing in large-
scale developments and to keep the growth in drilling moderate. Accordingly,
output in primary and utilities and in manufacturing is projected to grow at a
more moderate clip in the coming years, with the former expanding by 2.3per
cent per year over 201819 and the latter increasing by an annual average rate
of 3.0per cent.
Although inventories remained high in the first half of 2017, the prospects of
stronger demand due to the improving economy have brought builders back this
year. Total housing starts have been growing so far in 2017, especially inthe
single-detached market, and are expected to reach 11,700 units in total for the
year. However, with growth in the economy expected to moderate, builders will
once again take a break in 2018 to keep inventories under control. Accordingly,
total housing starts are expected to fall to just under 11,000 units next year.
But wholesale and retail trade and business services are on the comeback trail
this year. With employment and personal disposable income growth picking
up, consumers are more encouraged to spend again. Retail sales are forecast
to rise by a vigorous 8.3per cent this year and a more moderate 2.4per cent
in 2018. This will translate into increases of 4.5per cent and 1.1per cent in
wholesale and retail trade output in 2017 and 2018, respectively. The business
services sector is also growing again, with stronger growth in the cards for 2018.
In contrast, with the economy improving, the provincial government will take a
back seat to the private sector this year and next, with output growth slowing
in both non-commercial services and in public administration. Put together,
aggregate services sector output is forecast to expand by 2.9per cent this year
and by 1.9per cent next year.
EDMONTON
Chart 1 Chart 2
Employment Outlook GDP Outlook
Fin., ins., & real est. 5.2 0.3 Fin., ins., & real est. 3.3 2.8
Information & cultural 4.4 1.7 Information & cultural 0.9 1.5
Trans. & ware. 3.8 1.5 Trans. & ware. 3.4 1.8
Wholesale & retail 4.9 0.8 Wholesale & retail 4.5 1.7
12 8 4 0 4 8 0 1 2 3 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 2 3 4
Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Edmonton | The Conference Board of Canada
EDMONTON
Table 1 Table 2
Sectoral Employment Dominant Industries, 2016
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
Total employment 744.0 761.6 761.8 764.9 774.1 786.4 799.3 813.7 231129 Construction 92.3
2.3 2.4 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.8
44114543 Retail trade 80.3
Goods sector 187.9 193.7 167.7 167.3 168.3 169.6 172.4 175.3
6220 Hospitals 43.0
1.9 3.1 13.4 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.7 1.7
722124 Food and beverage services 37.8
Manufacturing 56.7 51.9 41.5 41.5 41.5 43.2 43.7 44.2
3.3 8.5 20.0 0.0 0.1 4.1 1.1 1.0 411191 Wholesale trade 31.5
Construction 89.1 104.2 92.5 89.7 91.4 90.9 93.0 95.0 6111 Primary and secondary schools 30.3
5.3 17.0 11.2 3.1 2.0 0.5 2.3 2.2 611217 Post-secondary education 24.4
Primary and utilities 42.2 37.6 33.7 36.2 35.4 35.4 35.7 36.1 9120 Provincial government 23.2
2.4 10.8 10.3 7.2 2.3 0.1 0.8 1.3
210031 Mining, oil, gas extraction 21.9
Services sector 556.1 567.9 594.0 597.5 605.8 616.8 626.9 638.3
621119 Ambulatory health care services 21.8
2.5 2.1 4.6 0.6 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.8
Transportation and warehousing 44.8 43.5 48.3 46.4 47.2 48.6 49.0 49.3 *North American Industrial Classification System
Source: Statistics Canada.
12.0 3.0 11.1 3.8 1.5 3.2 0.7 0.7
Information and cultural industries 9.8 8.9 8.4 8.0 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6
20.6 9.3 6.1 4.4 3.9 1.4 0.7 0.9
Wholesale and retail trade 114.0 107.5 112.0 117.5 116.8 116.8 118.7 121.3 Chart 3
5.2 5.7 4.2 4.9 0.6 0.0 1.7 2.1 Employment Market Variability
Finance, insurance, and real estate 33.6 34.3 36.2 38.1 37.4 37.8 37.9 38.5
6.2 2.1 5.4 5.2 1.8 1.0 0.4 1.5 Fluctuations Compared to Canada
Business services 83.0 85.5 84.2 85.5 87.8 89.5 91.7 94.0
12.7 2.9 1.5 1.6 2.6 1.9 2.5 2.5 Edmonton 193
Personal services 107.0 102.7 103.6 104.8 105.6 107.4 108.5 109.8 Canada 100
5.4 4.1 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.7 1.1 1.2
0 50 100 150 200 250
Non-commercial services 125.0 141.4 149.7 150.0 153.8 158.4 161.8 165.1
0.4 13.1 5.9 0.2 2.5 3.0 2.1 2.0
Public administration 38.8 44.2 51.6 47.2 48.9 49.9 50.7 51.8 No link to
0.0 13.9 17.0 8.7 3.7 2.0 1.7 2.1 Canada 34%
Shaded area represents forecast data; italics indicate percentage change. Link to Canada 66%
First line of employment data is in thousands and second line is percentage change.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
METROPOLITAN OUTLOOK 1
Economic Insights Into 13 Canadian EconomiesAutumn2017
EDMONTON
Table 3 Table 4
Construction, Commercial Real Estate, and Income Overview Real Estate
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 3,656,672 3,861,113 4,079,738 4,059,349 4,810,530 5,516,577 6,450,625 5,993,183 5,411,122 Downtown office market (2016Q4)
Residential 1,713,241 2,095,294 2,741,285 2,640,396 3,108,677 3,524,973 4,102,677 3,853,732 3,070,920 Class A vacancy rate 17.5%
Average Class A net rent ($/sq. ft.) $23.43
Non-residential 1,943,431 1,765,819 1,338,453 1,418,953 1,701,853 1,991,604 2,347,948 2,139,451 2,340,202
Suburban office market (2016Q4)
Industrial 312,368 402,768 182,348 149,079 298,411 223,206 276,257 182,927 334,576
Class A vacancy rate 18.4%
Commercial 1,151,785 990,191 981,304 1,101,235 1,147,538 1,149,746 1,565,818 1,458,697 1,539,850
Average Class A net rent ($/sq. ft.) $20.11
Public admin. 479,278 372,860 174,801 168,639 255,904 618,652 505,873 497,827 465,776
and non-comm. Industrial market (2016Q4)
Employment (000s) 156 158 151 153 154 156 165 173 180 Sources: CBRE; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.
Percentage change 5.7 1.7 4.6 1.3 0.6 1.5 5.7 4.6 4.4
Bankruptcies
Consumer 1,968 3,045 2,527 2,074 1,577 1,329 1,160 1,168 1,561 Chart 5
Business 89 81 93 77 52 19 32 30 37 Economic Structure, 2016
*Information and cultural services; finance, insurance, and real estate; business services; and public administration.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; Industry Canada; CBRE.
Highly diverse = 1
Not diverse = 0
Chart 4 Edmonton
Personal Income Per Capita, 2016 0.88
($ 000s)
Canada 46.2
Alberta 56.1
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Edmonton 54.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
EDMONTON
Chart 6 Table 5
Sources of Migration Comparative Employment, 2016
(share of total employment)
International Interprovincial Intercity
Forecast
Sector Edmonton Alberta Canada
40,000
Industrial 0.22 0.26 0.21
30,000
Office 0.24 0.22 0.25
20,000
10,000 Transportation and warehousing 0.06 0.06 0.05
0 Wholesale and retail trade 0.15 0.15 0.15
10,000 Personal services 0.14 0.14 0.13
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Non-commercial services 0.20 0.19 0.20
Chart 7 Chart 8
Housing Starts Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
f = forecast f = forecast
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
British Columbia
Summary
The B.C. economy will expand by 2.7per cent this year and 2.4per cent
in2018.
The decline in growth below the 3.0per cent mark is mainly due to an
anticipated slowdown in the housing market.
BRITISH COLUMBIA
i
2016 2017 201821 201221 The forestry industry has been hurt by the
mountain pine beetle, U.S. import duties,
3.6 2.7 2.1 2.6
andforest fires.
Shaded area represents forecast data.
i
Petronas cancelled its planned LNG project
Credit Quality
ontheB.C. coast.
AAA
Source : Standard & Poors.
Forecast Risk
i
If the U.S. and Canadian governments fail to
reachan agreement on the softwood lumber
dispute, B.C. lumber exports would be hurt
evenmore.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 204,555 210,910 218,427 224,326 229,633 233,996 240,382 244,066
(2007 $ millions) 3.2 3.1 3.6 2.7 2.4 1.9 2.7 1.5
Total employment (000s) 2,278 2,308 2,379 2,463 2,495 2,516 2,554 2,572
0.6 1.3 3.1 3.5 1.3 0.9 1.5 0.7
Unemployment rate (per cent) 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.9
Personal income per capita ($) 43,347 45,263 46,807 48,552 49,922 51,233 52,866 54,290
Population (000s) 4,640 4,690 4,743 4,797 4,854 4,910 4,964 5,019
1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1
Single-family housing starts (000s) 9.6 10.2 12.3 12.2 10.3 9.5 8.9 8.4
Multi-family housing starts (000s) 18.8 21.3 29.6 28.6 25.9 24.5 23.3 22.0
Retail sales ($ millions) 67,001 71,614 76,885 82,680 84,675 86,451 88,948 90,809
6.3 6.9 7.4 7.5 2.4 2.1 2.9 2.1
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.189 1.202 1.224 1.246 1.272 1.302 1.328 1.356
1.0 1.1 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.0 2.1
The news is not entirely bleak for B.C., however, as the new NDP government
recently announced that the province ran a $2.7-billion surplus in fiscal year
201617 and projected another $246-million surplus in 201718the envy
of most Canadian provinces struggling with high deficits and debt levels.
Jobgrowth also remains brisksome 84,000 net new jobs are expected to
becreated across the province this year. The sound job market, along with
firming home prices, likely explains the continued solid pace of household
spending. Infact, real consumer spending is expected to increase by 3.0per
cent in 2017, up from 2.9per cent last year. But we think things will slow sharply
next year; employers are projected to add a more modest 31,600 workers to
payrolls, limiting real household spending growth to 2.2per cent.
Chart 1
Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0)
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
f = forecast
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
Chart 2
Industry Outlook, 201721
(average annual compound growth rate)
Summary
Vancouvers real GDP growth is forecast to ease from 4.1per cent in 2016
to3.2per cent in 2017. An even more modest 2.5per cent advance is our
callfor 2018.
Employment is forecast to rise 2.4per cent in 2017 and a further 1.5per cent
in2018, following a 4.7per cent jump in 2016.
VANCOUVER
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Vancouvers unemployment rate will hit
anineyear low of 5.1per cent in 2017.
4.1 3.2 2.3 3.1
Out of 13 CMAs #1 #7 #4 #1
i
A recently cooler housing market has trimmed
growth in various industries.
2016
i
A severe housing market correction would likely
Homeownership 1.92 inflict widespread economic damage.
Rental 1.51
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 119,090 124,102 129,158 133,228 136,566 139,632 143,094 145,892
(2007 $ millions) 3.9 4.2 4.1 3.2 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.0
Total employment (000s) 1,276 1,298 1,359 1,392 1,414 1,436 1,459 1,478
2.3 1.8 4.7 2.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.3
Unemployment rate (per cent) 5.9 5.9 5.4 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7
Personal income per capita ($) 43,437 45,837 46,833 48,126 49,432 50,891 52,246 53,641
1.8 5.5 2.2 2.8 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.7
Population (000s) 2,482 2,507 2,549 2,591 2,628 2,665 2,703 2,742
1.5 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5
Total housing starts 19,212 20,863 27,914 25,364 23,632 22,363 21,386 20,387
Retail sales ($ millions) 30,797 33,840 36,056 38,520 39,503 40,468 41,536 42,580
6.7 9.9 6.5 6.8 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.5
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.205 1.219 1.246 1.272 1.301 1.332 1.358 1.386
1.1 1.2 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.0 2.1
Vancouvers natural beauty and favourable Pacific Rim location have proven
magnetic for years; the area has enjoyed an uninterrupted string of net inflows
since at least 1987expensive housing notwithstanding. The decent economy
we expect simply adds to the citys attractiveness. Accordingly, we expect net
in-migration to exceed 30,000 people both this year and in 2018the most
since 2010. This will boost Vancouvers population by 1.7per cent in 2017 and
afurther 1.4per cent next year.
Rising interest rates, the relative absence of foreign purchasers, and a slowing
economy will all temper Vancouver housing demand slightly. Weexpect
total starts to drop 9 per cent this year to just under 25,400 units, with
both single-family and multiple starts easing. Another albeit smaller dip to
roughly 23,600starts is our call for 2018. Both single and multiple starts will
again ease. Still, the near-term outlook for housing starts remains strong.
Theprojected figures for 2017 and 2018 are well above the prior 10-year
averageof18,700units.
On a negative note, the non-residential sector will take a hit from the decision
by B.C.s new NDP government to re-examine the replacement of the Massey
Tunnel across the Fraser River between Richmond and Delta with a $3.5-billion,
10-lane bridge. The new bridge was supposed to be partly paid for by tolls,
butthe new government has ruled this out after campaigning on the elimination
ofbridge tolls in the region.
A cooler resale market in the wake of the 15per cent foreign buyers tax levied
by British Columbias government in August 2016 is trimming output growth
in finance, insurance, and real estate, which had averaged about 5 per cent
annually in the four years to 2016. The tax certainly did reduce foreign real
estate involvement. B.C. government data show that foreigners were involved in
9per cent of residential transactions in July 2016 (before the tax was imposed)
in the provinces lower mainlandsouthwest region; this share fell to roughly
1per cent in August 2016 and has since stabilized near 3per cent.
Although local resale underpinnings remain decent, national risks lurk. These
start with rising interest rates, which will further erode Vancouvers already
poor housing affordability. Another looming issue is a proposal by the Office
ofthe Superintendent of Financial Institutions, which regulates banks, to require
financial institutions to use a qualifying rate of the contracted mortgage rate plus
2per cent for all uninsured mortgages. If implemented, this would seriously limit
Vancouver residents housing choices.
Elsewhere on the services side, decent employment gains have spurred brisk
retail sales growth over the past three years. Wholesale and retail trade output
expansion has averaged nearly 5 per cent annually over this period and is on
track to jump 5.9 per cent in 2017. We expect trade growth to cool to 2.5 per cent
in 2018 as slower job and income gains and rising interest rates limit retail sales
growth to a five-year low of 2.6 per cent.
VANCOUVER
Chart 1 Chart 2
Employment Outlook GDP Outlook
Fin., ins., & real est. 6.3 0.1 Fin., ins., & real est. 3.4 2.7
Information & cultural 11.5 4.3 Information & cultural 1.8 1.5
Trans. & ware. 7.5 1.3 Trans. & ware. 5.0 2.3
Wholesale & retail 1.8 1.8 Wholesale & retail 5.9 2.5
5 0 5 10 15 6 4 2 0 2 4 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 2 3 4
Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Vancouver | The Conference Board of Canada
VANCOUVER
Table 1 Table 2
Sectoral Employment Dominant Industries, 2016
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
Total employment 1,275.7 1,298.2 1,359.2 1,392.4 1,414.0 1,435.7 1,458.8 1,477.7 44114543 Retail trade 154.9
2.3 1.8 4.7 2.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.3
231129 Construction 109.4
Goods sector 218.5 222.8 226.9 230.1 229.4 235.0 237.2 238.3
722124 Food and beverage services 84.1
3.4 2.0 1.8 1.4 0.3 2.5 0.9 0.5
411191 Wholesale trade 62.5
Manufacturing 90.5 95.4 97.1 96.5 100.4 100.5 101.4 101.7
6.8 5.4 1.8 0.6 4.0 0.1 0.9 0.3 6220 Hospitals 56.6
Construction 104.2 103.0 109.4 114.5 110.5 114.6 115.6 116.3 5511, 561112, Other management and 51.2
0.3 1.2 6.3 4.6 3.4 3.7 0.9 0.6 561517, 5619, administrative services
562129
Primary and utilities 23.8 24.5 20.4 19.2 18.5 19.9 20.2 20.3
611217 Post-secondary education 49.0
5.0 2.8 16.6 6.3 3.5 7.7 1.2 1.0
6111 Primary and secondary schools 45.7
Services sector 1,057.2 1,075.3 1,132.3 1,162.3 1,184.6 1,200.7 1,221.6 1,239.4
2.1 1.7 5.3 2.7 1.9 1.4 1.7 1.5 5211, 522123, Finance 44.7
523139
Transportation and warehousing 82.5 85.0 85.5 91.9 96.2 95.1 96.3 96.7
10.4 3.0 0.6 7.5 4.7 1.2 1.2 0.5 621119 Ambulatory health care services 43.6
Information and cultural industries 34.5 39.4 48.0 53.6 44.4 45.0 45.1 44.9 *North American Industrial Classification System
6.2 14.2 21.9 11.5 17.0 1.2 0.2 0.3 Source: Statistics Canada.
Wholesale and retail trade 199.5 196.0 217.4 213.5 225.7 222.6 226.5 229.4
1.7 1.7 10.9 1.8 5.7 1.3 1.7 1.3
Finance, insurance, and real estate 92.9 85.5 94.6 100.5 92.9 99.4 99.9 100.0 Chart 3
1.8 8.0 10.7 6.3 7.6 7.0 0.5 0.0 Employment Market Variability
Business services 177.3 189.0 194.3 196.9 209.7 212.2 216.6 219.9
0.0 6.6 2.8 1.3 6.5 1.2 2.1 1.6 Fluctuations Compared to Canada
Personal services 186.3 184.3 190.9 196.4 200.8 204.5 207.5 210.8
7.2 1.1 3.6 2.9 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.6 Vancouver 168
Non-commercial services 233.1 247.9 251.5 259.1 264.0 271.3 278.6 285.8 Canada 100
0.1 6.3 1.4 3.0 1.9 2.8 2.7 2.6
Public administration 51.1 48.3 50.0 50.4 50.8 50.6 51.2 51.9
0 50 100 150 200
12.1 5.4 3.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 1.2 1.4
Shaded area represents forecast data; italics indicate percentage change. No link to
First line of employment data is in thousands and second line is percentage change. Canada 28%
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Link to Canada 72%
VANCOUVER
Table 3 Table 4
Construction, Commercial Real Estate, and Income Overview Real Estate
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 5,587,958 3,889,824 5,737,139 5,767,699 6,964,201 6,622,004 7,135,030 8,833,599 8,190,007 Downtown office market (2016Q4)
Residential 3,381,645 2,426,194 4,088,749 4,010,830 4,589,260 4,845,231 4,748,936 6,466,159 6,161,641 Class A vacancy rate 7.7%
Average Class A net rent ($/sq. ft.) $30.25
Non-residential 2,206,313 1,463,630 1,648,390 1,756,869 2,374,941 1,776,773 2,386,094 2,367,440 2,028,366
Suburban office market (2016Q4)
Industrial 124,198 94,177 90,534 135,674 190,824 160,897 144,834 240,518 182,598
Class A vacancy rate 13.8%
Commercial 1,710,101 971,661 1,057,762 1,199,332 1,554,497 1,271,533 1,549,073 1,631,737 1,446,507
Average Class A net rent ($/sq. ft.) $23.93
Public admin. 372,014 397,792 500,094 421,863 629,620 344,343 692,187 495,185 399,261
and non-comm. Industrial market (2016Q4)
Employment (000s) 343 336 337 348 338 351 356 362 387 Sources: CBRE; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.
Percentage change 0.7 2.3 0.4 3.3 2.7 3.8 1.4 1.8 6.9
Bankruptcies
Consumer 3,361 4,686 4,119 3,386 3,171 3,038 2,581 2,210 1,733 Chart 5
Business 161 182 104 92 95 74 110 75 72 Economic Structure, 2016
*Information and cultural services; finance, insurance, and real estate; business services; and public administration.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; Industry Canada; CBRE.
Highly diverse = 1
Chart 4 Not diverse = 0
Personal Income Per Capita, 2016 Vancouver
($ 000s) 0.92
Canada 46.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
VANCOUVER
Chart 6 Table 5
Sources of Migration Comparative Employment, 2016
(share of total employment)
International Interprovincial Intercity
Forecast
Sector Vancouver British Columbia Canada
45,000
Industrial 0.17 0.20 0.21
30,000
Office 0.28 0.25 0.25
15,000 Transportation and warehousing 0.06 0.06 0.05
0 Wholesale and retail trade 0.16 0.16 0.15
15,000 Personal services 0.14 0.14 0.13
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Non-commercial services 0.19 0.19 0.20
Chart 7 Chart 8
Housing Starts Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
f = forecast f = forecast
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
Victoria
Summary
Victorias economy is expected to moderate but remain healthy over the near
term, expanding by 2.4per cent in 2017 and 2.2per cent in 2018, following
back-to-back 2.8per cent gains over 201516.
The job market is hotemployers are projected to add some 7,100 workers
totheir payrolls this year, the biggest one-year gain since 2008. But next year,
the economy is expected to create just 400 net new jobs.
VICTORIA
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Housing starts hit a 27-year high in 2016.
i
Job growth is expected to slow sharply
next year.
i
Homeownership 1.33 A severe housing correction in B.C. would hurt
provincial government revenues, likely leading
Rental 1.23
tolower-than-expected hiring in Victorias key
public sector.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 15,420 15,851 16,290 16,674 17,039 17,372 17,749 18,007
(2007 $ millions) 1.6 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.2 1.5
Total employment (000s) 175 178 184 191 192 194 197 199
2.6 1.8 3.3 3.8 0.2 1.1 1.6 0.9
Unemployment rate (per cent) 5.4 5.7 5.2 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2
Personal income per capita ($) 46,875 48,804 49,716 51,263 52,367 53,917 55,539 57,123
2.6 4.1 1.9 3.1 2.2 3.0 3.0 2.9
Population (000s) 362 367 371 375 379 383 386 390
1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
Total housing starts 1,315 2,008 2,933 2,723 2,414 2,296 2,210 2,122
Retail sales ($ millions) 4,546 4,850 5,134 5,442 5,563 5,683 5,815 5,933
6.1 6.7 5.8 6.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.0
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.173 1.186 1.207 1.234 1.262 1.292 1.318 1.345
0.9 1.1 1.8 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.0 2.1
The local job market has also performed much better lately. Victorias employers
shed a total of 5,500 workers over 200814 when the economy was in a deep
funk. Fortunately, the economy has more than recouped all those losses since
then, with employers adding 9,000 workers to their payrolls over 201516and
on track to add a further 7,100 workers in 2017. But this pace of hiring is
unsustainable, so we think the job market will take a bit of a breather next year,
with employment rising by only 400 in 2018.
It is not surprising, therefore, that Victorias economy struggled while the B.C.
government held the line on spending, especially between the 201213 and
201415 fiscal years when spending stayed essentially flat. Largely as a result,
public sector output in Victoria fell at an average annual clip of 0.9per cent over
201014. But the B.C. government is now posting large surpluses, giving it the
fiscal capacity to increase spending. In fact, it was revealed in the NDPs first
budget this past September that the province ran a $2.7-billion surplus in fiscal
year 201617, following surpluses of $1.66billion in 201415 and $811million
in 201516. Accordingly, public sector output in Victoria has started to expand
again, including a 2.5per cent increase in 2015 and a 1.8per cent gain in 2016.
Although the large B.C. government surpluses are not expected to continue,
things will remain rosy, as the recent B.C. budget projected surpluses of
$246million in 201718 and $228million in 201819. As a result, public sector
output in Victoria is forecast to keep growing over the near term, coming in at
2.2per cent in 2017 and 2.1per cent in 2018.
Activity has been particularly vigorous in wholesale and retail trade, with 2017
growth likely to surpass already impressive 2015 and 2016 performances, as
strong job and income gains, along with ultra-low interest rates, have kept retail
sales growth at an annual clip of around 6 per cent since 2014. As a result,
output growth in wholesale and retail trade is poised to hit an 11-year high of
5.6per cent this year, on the heels of an average annual increase of 5.0per
cent over 201516. But with interest rates creeping up and job and income gains
cooling, retail sales growth is expected to slow sharply to 2.2per cent in 2018,
translating into output growth of 2.0per cent in wholesale and retail trade.
Last year was a banner year for new home construction, as housing starts rose
to a 27-year high of 2,900 units. While both single-detached and multiple-unit
starts contributed to the gain, the increase in the multiples market was the more
impressive of the two, as starts of multi-family dwellings reached the 2,000unit
mark for the first time since 1977. Although housing starts are on track to
decrease in 2017, the 2,700 units projected this year would be the second
highest level in 11 years. The chief reason activity remains strong is that the
inventory of completed and unabsorbed units has fallen to stunningly low levels,
coming in at a paltry 39 units in August 2017. Despite low inventories, a slowing
economy and rising interest rates should be enough to convince builders to
reduce housing starts further next year to a still solid 2,400 units.
Work has also been busy on the non-residential side, and this trend should
continue over the near term. Government investment spending has been
particularly strong as of late. Key projects include BCHydros new post-disaster
operations centre in Royal Oak, slated for completion in the fall, and the
Johnson Street Bridge replacement project, scheduled to open in spring 2018.
That said, private non-residential investment projects are also contributing to
growth. Twoexamples include a $60-million renovation of the Fairmont Empress
Hotel, which wrapped up in mid-2017, and a $72-million, 100,000-square-foot
expansion of the Mayfair shopping mall, slated to be completed next fall.
VICTORIA
Chart 1 Chart 2
Employment Outlook GDP Outlook
Fin., ins., & real est. 14.9 1.4 Fin., ins., & real est. 1.3 2.1
Information & cultural 41.6 5.9 Information & cultural 5.5 0.8
Trans. & ware. 8.1 1.1 Trans. & ware. 5.4 2.5
Wholesale & retail 9.1 0.5 Wholesale & retail 5.6 1.7
50 25 0 25 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 2 3
Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Victoria | The Conference Board of Canada
VICTORIA
Table 1 Table 2
Sectoral Employment Dominant Industries, 2016
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
Total employment 175.0 178.1 184.1 191.1 191.6 193.7 196.9 198.7 44114543 Retail trade 21.6
2.6 1.8 3.3 3.8 0.2 1.1 1.6 0.9
231129 Construction 13.3
Goods sector 21.5 22.6 21.9 25.5 23.2 23.6 23.8 23.7
9120 Provincial government 12.3
2.1 4.8 2.9 16.3 9.0 2.0 0.8 0.4
722124 Food and beverage services 12.0
Manufacturing 7.1 6.7 6.7 7.3 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.1
22.1 5.1 0.1 9.2 5.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 621119 Ambulatory health care services 10.2
Construction 12.1 14.1 13.3 15.9 14.5 14.8 14.9 14.9 611217 Post-secondary education 8.5
7.6 16.4 6.0 19.7 8.5 2.0 0.8 0.5 5511, 561112, Other management and 8.4
Primary and utilities 2.3 1.7 1.9 2.3 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 561517, 5619, administrative services
562129
7.7 25.7 10.9 17.4 23.4 5.1 0.9 0.1
6220 Hospitals 7.9
Services sector 153.5 155.6 162.2 165.7 168.4 170.1 173.0 175.0
3.2 1.3 4.2 2.2 1.6 1.0 1.7 1.1 5415 Computer systems design services 6.7
Transportation and warehousing 7.6 8.3 7.5 8.1 8.5 8.3 8.4 8.4 6111 Primary and secondary schools 5.5
23.6 9.8 10.5 8.1 4.8 1.9 1.2 0.3
*North American Industrial Classification System
Information and cultural industries 2.5 3.6 3.2 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 Source: Statistics Canada.
1.8 45.8 12.0 41.6 24.6 3.8 1.3 1.3
Wholesale and retail trade 24.1 24.8 26.1 28.5 28.7 27.8 27.9 28.0
10.6 2.8 5.4 9.1 0.7 3.1 0.6 0.1
Chart 3
Finance, insurance, and real estate 8.5 8.8 7.7 8.9 7.8 8.4 8.4 8.4
Employment Market Variability
4.5 3.4 12.2 14.9 11.4 6.6 0.3 0.3
Business services 22.9 22.3 28.6 26.9 28.0 28.3 28.7 28.9
Fluctuations Compared to Canada
12.0 2.7 28.5 6.1 4.3 1.1 1.4 0.9
Personal services 29.4 28.5 27.7 29.5 29.7 30.3 30.8 31.1 Victoria 318
3.3 2.8 3.0 6.6 0.7 2.2 1.6 0.8
Canada 100
Non-commercial services 40.9 42.2 41.8 41.7 43.0 44.6 46.1 47.3
3.5 3.2 1.0 0.1 3.0 3.7 3.4 2.6 0 100 200 300 400
Public administration 17.7 17.0 19.6 20.3 20.4 20.0 20.3 20.6
1.9 3.8 15.0 3.4 0.5 1.8 1.6 1.4
No link to
Shaded area represents forecast data; italics indicate percentage change. Canada 47%
First line of employment data is in thousands and second line is percentage change.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Link to Canada 53%
VICTORIA
Table 3 Table 4
Construction, Commercial Real Estate, and Income Overview Real Estate
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 837,907 794,130 764,746 640,786 647,952 576,720 666,032 785,789 1,024,364 New housing market (2016)
Residential 556,290 394,679 490,360 419,619 443,020 358,692 448,538 595,543 750,940 Single-detached absorptions 736
Growth 23.7%
Non-residential 281,617 399,451 274,386 221,167 204,932 218,028 217,494 190,246 273,424
Average price of absorbed single-detached units $774,888
Industrial 17,665 19,596 13,846 15,138 12,704 13,911 11,883 13,948 43,050
Growth 12.1%
Commercial 179,880 204,670 177,766 165,342 171,343 97,279 110,191 119,745 146,530
Resale housing market (2016)
Public admin. 84,072 175,185 82,774 40,687 20,885 106,838 95,420 56,553 83,844
and non-comm. Unit sales 10,028
Growth 27.5%
Office sector*
Average price $585,745
No. of square feet n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Growth 12.3%
(000s)
Percentage change n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Apartment market (October 2016)
Vacancy rate (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Two-bedroom vacancy rate 0.5%
Average two-bedroom rent $1,187
Employment (000s) 60 56 58 58 56 55 52 52 59
Percentage change 10.0 6.2 2.8 0.9 3.3 2.9 5.8 0.3 14.3 Sources: CMHC Housing Time Series Database; Canadian Real Estate
Association.
Bankruptcies
Consumer 705 926 892 746 674 662 595 546 417
Business 43 26 23 22 11 21 18 10 9
Chart 5
*Information and cultural services; finance, insurance, and real estate; business services; and public administration. Economic Structure, 2016
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; Industry Canada; CBRE.
Canada 46.2
Victoria 49.7
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
VICTORIA
Chart 6 Table 5
Sources of Migration Comparative Employment, 2016
(share of total employment)
International Interprovincial Intercity
Forecast
Sector Victoria British Columbia Canada
6,000
Industrial 0.12 0.20 0.21
5,000
4,000 Office 0.32 0.25 0.25
3,000 Transportation and warehousing 0.04 0.06 0.05
2,000
1,000 Wholesale and retail trade 0.14 0.16 0.15
0 Personal services 0.15 0.14 0.13
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Non-commercial services 0.23 0.19 0.20
Chart 7 Chart 8
Housing Starts Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
f = forecast f = forecast
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
METROPOLITAN OUTLOOK 1
Economic Insights Into 13 Canadian EconomiesAutumn2017
APPENDIX A
Cross-City Comparison
APPENDIX B
Users Guide
CMAs
The census metropolitan areas (CMAs) are composed (defined by Statistics
Canada) of the main city and the surrounding municipalities, towns, townships,
villages, and parishes.
Credit Quality
The credit rating is a current opinion (e.g., DBRS or Standard & Poors) of
the citys overall financial capacity (its creditworthiness) to pay its financial
obligations. The rating applies to one of the individual cities within the CMA.
Table 1
Debt Rating Service Scales
DBRS
Good quality A
Poor quality B
Speculative quality C
Default D
Homeownership
This ratio compares the average price of a home in the CMA to the average for
Canada as a whole.
Rental
This ratio compares the average monthly rent of an apartment in the CMA to the
average for Canada as a whole.
Current State
An arrow up (down) indicates a favourable (unfavourable) element/event that
has occurred within the census metropolitan area or that will certainly occur in
the near future. It can also indicate a positive (negative) economic climate within
the CMA.
Forecast Risk
To gauge the likelihood of the economic forecast unfolding, we indicate
whether there is an upside or downside risk. As indicated by the arrow, the
overall forecast is conditional on key assumptions that may boost or dampen
the outlook.
Economic Indicators
Industrial Classification
Statistics Canada compiles data on gross domestic product and employment
following the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). Within
this system, two aggregate sectors existgoods and serviceseach of which is
subdivided into industrial sectors based on major type of production activity. The
goods-producing sector includes the manufacturing, construction, and primary
and utilities industries, whereas the services sector aggregates transportation
and warehousing; information and cultural industries; wholesale and retail trade;
finance, insurance, and real estate; business services; personal services; non-
commercial services; and public administration.
Total Employment
Total employment is the sum of employment in all industries. Data are presented
in units of thousands, and an annual percentage growth value is also provided.
Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of unemployed workers to the
total labour force.
Population
The population data include inhabitants of all municipalities that make up
the CMA.
Retail Sales
Retail sales are quoted in units of millions of dollars and are not adjusted for
inflation (current dollars).
Sectoral Employment
The most important industries for employment are listed, based on NAICS
data. Industrial disaggregation is done at the four-digit level. The number of
employees is quoted in units of thousands.
Dominant Industries
Using the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS), this table
presents the most important industries for the CMA, ranked by employment.
Industrial disaggregation is done at the four-digit level. The number of
employees is quoted in units of thousands.
Fluctuations
Fluctuation linked to Canada is an indication of the degree of correlation
between changes in employment in the CMA and changes in employment in
Canada between 1987 and the current year.
Compared to Canada
This bar chart represents the ratio of the standard deviation of total employment
growth in the CMA to the standard deviation of total employment growth in
Canada. The interpretation of this ratio is that the higher the number on the bar
chart, the more volatile the labour market in the CMA relative to Canada.
Building Permits
Historical data are in units of thousands for the number of building permits
issued and are presented on a disaggregated level. Total building permits can
be split into two main categories: residential and non-residential. Furthermore,
the non-residential sector is divided into three sub-components: industrial;
commercial and public administration; and non-commercial.
Office Sector
The total CMA office sector is quoted in units of thousands of square feet. This
value evolves over time, and an annual growth percentage value is listed. The
vacancy rate measures the amount of physically vacant space as a percentage
of total inventory. Employment in thousands of units for the office sector is also
quoted. The office sector is defined by these industries: information and cultural
services; finance, insurance, and real estate; business services; and public
administration.
Bankruptcies
Business and consumer bankruptcy figures are available from Industry Canada.
Real Estate
Depending on the availability of data, real estate information may include:
Industrial Market
The industrial market consists of building units or assets devoted to production.
The vacancy rate is the percentage of units available to lease, while the overall
availability rate is the percentage of units available for sale. Average net rents or
land values are quoted for the CMAs most active land markets.
Apartment Market
The apartment market consists of building units devoted to residential dwellings.
Average rents are quoted for a two-bedroom apartment.
Economic Structure
Canada is set as the benchmark for economic diversity. It is proposed that
the Canadian economy is well diversified; hence, a comparison can be made
between the CMAs and the Canadian economy. The value 1 is given to a
metropolitan area that has the same industrial structure as Canada. A value of 0
means that the CMA has a totally different economic structure and thus implicitly
lacks diversity.
Sources of Migration
Statistics Canada collects data for three types of population migration patterns:
intercity, interprovincial, and international. Intercity migration is defined as the
flow of population moving out of or into the metropolitan area to or from other
cities in the province. Interprovincial migration represents population movements
between the metropolitan area and other Canadian provinces, excluding the
province in which the metropolitan area lies. International migration is the
population movement between other countries and the metropolitan area. The
graph plots the net values for the three demographic variables. The values can
be read by matching the borderline of the bar to the left scale.
Housing Starts
The graph demonstrates the growth in housing starts over a period of time. The
base year (for example, 2005) is given the value 1.0. Hence, the following yearly
data represent the growth value in comparison with 2005. For example, the
value 1.2 means that housing starts have increased by 20 per cent since 2005.
Two lines are shown in the graph, one for the metropolitan area and one for
Canada.
Comparative Employment
Employment is disaggregated into six sectors: industrial; office; transportation
and warehousing; wholesale and retail trade; personal services; and non-
commercial services. This table shows the share of each employment
component relative to the total.
Employment in Perspective
Using a base year (2005, for example) as a benchmark, this graph plots total
employment growth against time. The shaded area of the graph represents
the forecast horizon, and the forecast years are marked by the letter f. The
value 1.0 is given to the base year, and each subsequent year is used as a
comparison; hence, the growth is clearly schemed. For analytical purposes,
employment in perspective is shown with metropolitan and Canadian data.
APPENDIX C
Glossary of
EconomicTerms
Inflation: A sustained rise in the average level of all prices. The consumer
price index is one measure of inflation and is used as a proxy for inflation at
the urban level.
Labour force: The total number of persons employed in both civilian and
military jobs, plus the number of persons who are unemployed.
APPENDIX D
Canadian Census
Metropolitan Areas
Name Type Name Type
St. Johns Dorchester Village
Conception Bay South Town Elgin Paroisse (Municipalit de)
Portugal Cove-St. Philips Town Saint-Paul Paroisse (Municipalit de)
Pouch Cove Town Dorchester Paroisse (Municipalit de)
Flatrock Town Fort Folly 1 Indian Reserve
Torbay Town Saint John
Logy Bay-Middle Cover-Outer Cove Town Saint Martins Parish
Bauline Town St. Martins Village
Paradise Town Simonds Parish
St. Johns City Saint John City
Mount Pearl City Musquash Parish
Petty Harbour-Maddox Cove Town Lepreau Parish
Bay Bulls Town Petersville Parish
Witless Bay Town Upham Parish
Halifax Hampton Parish
Cole Harbour 30 Indian Reserve Hampton Town
Shubenacadie 13 Indian Reserve Rothesay Parish
Halifax Regional Municipality Westfield Parish
Sheet Harbour Regional Municipality Kingston Parish
Moncton Grand BayWestfield Town
Moncton City Greenwich Parish
Dieppe City Rothesay Town
Riverview Town Quispamsis Town
Moncton Paroisse (Municipalit de) Saguenay
Memramcook Village Saint-Fulgence Municipalit
Coverdale Paroisse (Municipalit de) La Baie Ville
Salisbury Village Laterrire Ville
Hillsborough Paroisse (Municipalit de) Chicoutimi Ville
Hillsborough Village Tremblay Canton (Municipalit de)
Note: The 2001 census metropolitan areas reflect the agglomeration of several individual municipalities into one jurisdiction. For example, Halifax CMA now
encompasses Halifax Regional Municipality, Cole Harbour, Shubenacadie, and Sheet Harbour. The Halifax Regional Municipality includes Bedford, Dartmouth,
and Halifax, which were listed separately in the 1996 definition of the Halifax CMA. In 2001, Statistics Canada increased the number of CMAs to 27. Abbotsford and
Kingston were added.
Note: The 2001 census metropolitan areas reflect the agglomeration of several individual municipalities into one jurisdiction. For example, Halifax CMA now
encompasses Halifax Regional Municipality, Cole Harbour, Shubenacadie, and Sheet Harbour. The Halifax Regional Municipality includes Bedford, Dartmouth,
and Halifax, which were listed separately in the 1996 definition of the Halifax CMA. In 2001, Statistics Canada increased the number of CMAs to 27. Abbotsford and
Kingston were added.
Note: The 2001 census metropolitan areas reflect the agglomeration of several individual municipalities into one jurisdiction. For example, Halifax CMA now
encompasses Halifax Regional Municipality, Cole Harbour, Shubenacadie, and Sheet Harbour. The Halifax Regional Municipality includes Bedford, Dartmouth,
and Halifax, which were listed separately in the 1996 definition of the Halifax CMA. In 2001, Statistics Canada increased the number of CMAs to 27. Abbotsford and
Kingston were added.
Note: The 2001 census metropolitan areas reflect the agglomeration of several individual municipalities into one jurisdiction. For example, Halifax CMA now
encompasses Halifax Regional Municipality, Cole Harbour, Shubenacadie, and Sheet Harbour. The Halifax Regional Municipality includes Bedford, Dartmouth,
and Halifax, which were listed separately in the 1996 definition of the Halifax CMA. In 2001, Statistics Canada increased the number of CMAs to 27. Abbotsford and
Kingston were added.
Note: The 2001 census metropolitan areas reflect the agglomeration of several individual municipalities into one jurisdiction. For example, Halifax CMA now
encompasses Halifax Regional Municipality, Cole Harbour, Shubenacadie, and Sheet Harbour. The Halifax Regional Municipality includes Bedford, Dartmouth,
and Halifax, which were listed separately in the 1996 definition of the Halifax CMA. In 2001, Statistics Canada increased the number of CMAs to 27. Abbotsford and
Kingston were added.
Edenwold No. 158 Rural Municipality Rocky View No. 44 Municipal District
Note: The 2001 census metropolitan areas reflect the agglomeration of several individual municipalities into one jurisdiction. For example, Halifax CMA now
encompasses Halifax Regional Municipality, Cole Harbour, Shubenacadie, and Sheet Harbour. The Halifax Regional Municipality includes Bedford, Dartmouth,
and Halifax, which were listed separately in the 1996 definition of the Halifax CMA. In 2001, Statistics Canada increased the number of CMAs to 27. Abbotsford and
Kingston were added.
Fraser Valley H RDA Regional District Electoral Area Katzie 2 Indian Reserve
Note: The 2001 census metropolitan areas reflect the agglomeration of several individual municipalities into one jurisdiction. For example, Halifax CMA now
encompasses Halifax Regional Municipality, Cole Harbour, Shubenacadie, and Sheet Harbour. The Halifax Regional Municipality includes Bedford, Dartmouth,
and Halifax, which were listed separately in the 1996 definition of the Halifax CMA. In 2001, Statistics Canada increased the number of CMAs to 27. Abbotsford and
Kingston were added.
Name Type
Sooke District Municipality
Note: The 2001 census metropolitan areas reflect the agglomeration of several individual municipalities into one jurisdiction. For example, Halifax CMA now
encompasses Halifax Regional Municipality, Cole Harbour, Shubenacadie, and Sheet Harbour. The Halifax Regional Municipality includes Bedford, Dartmouth,
and Halifax, which were listed separately in the 1996 definition of the Halifax CMA. In 2001, Statistics Canada increased the number of CMAs to 27. Abbotsford and
Kingston were added.