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INTERDISCIPLINARY JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY RESEARCH IN BUSINESS VOLUME 7, NO 1

The Impact of Islamic Finance on Some Macro Economic Variables.


(A case study of Jordan Islamic Bank)

*Torki M. Al-Fawwaz

Finance and Economic Department, Faculty of Finance and Business Administration, AL Al-bayt
University,Mafraq, Jordan.

**Ateyah M. Alawneh

Department of Finance and Banking Sciences, Faculty of Business Administration, Ajloun National
University, Jordan.

*** George N. Shawaqfeh

Department of Finance and Banking Sciences, Faculty of Business Administration, Ajloun National
University, Jordan.

Corresponding author

Correspondence: Torki M. Al-Fawwaz. Finance and Economic Department, Faculty of Finance and
Business Administration, AL Al-bayt University, Mafraq, Jordan

Abstract

The study aims to clarify the impact of Islamic finance on some macroeconomic variables during the

period (2000-2011).The study used four regression models to test the hypotheses of the research. The

analysis shows a statistically significant positive relationship between Islamic finance and GDP. There is

a statistically significant positive relationship between Islamic finance and domestic investment, and also

a statistically significant positive relationship between Islamic finance and economic growth. This means

that the Islamic finance contributes significantly to the promotion of the economic activity and it supports

the process of economic development. The study also found that there is a statistically significant negative

correlation between Islamic finance and the rate of inflation. This means that the Islamic finance enhances

the production of goods and services in the economy field leading to a decline in the general price level.

Finally, the study recommends the need to take care of the role of Islamic finance, the derivation of new

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Islamic financial instruments, and enhancing the study of Islamic financial engineering in institutes and

colleges at universities.

Keywords: macroeconomic variables (Gross Domestic product , Economic Growth, Domestic

investment, Inflation , Economic Growth ,Islamic finance).

1. Introduction

The concept of the Islamic Banking emerged in the early sixties of the twentieth century to help absorbing

the money surplus in the Islamic countries and since then it has remarkably grown especially as it has

been accompanied by the development of the Islamic economic thought which is based on the Islamic

prohibition of usury. This development entailed revision of the Islamic fiscal structures and this led to the

of abandonment of interest system, and taking up the adoption of the principle of the participation in

profit and loss, a principle which has been firmly adhered to by the Islamic banks and applied to various

operations and bank services.

Being more than fifty years old, the Islamic banking system has become a part of the world banking

system. Since the establishment of the first Islamic bank in the early1960s in Egypt the activity of

Islamic banking has been growing steadily throughout the world especially in the 1970s and the 1980s.

The Islamic banking system also witnessed great developments. A major progress was the foundation of

The Islamic and Training Institute by The Islamic Development Bank in Jeddah to conduct empirical and

theoretical research. The non-interest banking activity has widely spread in many Islamic countries and

some European countries. Moreover, some traditional banks started to open branches for Islamic

transactions (Traad, 2003). Bahrain and Malaysia are examples of the countries which encourage Islamic

banking. The banking systems were converted to noninterest banks in Iran, Pakistan, and Sudan. In

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addition, western commercial banks began to provide Islamic services through what is known as Islamic

windows. (Al-Qudah and Jaradat, 2013)

The Islamic Financial tools are among the modern tools that came as substitutes for the traditional

financial ones. In Jordan, the place of the study, most of the population are Muslims; they prefer the

Islamic tools to carry out their transactions and dealings. In addition, these tools are appropriate for the

financial needs of the investors who want to finance their investment projects especially building up a

fixed capital.

Though the traditional funding tools have gained a substantial significance in recent decades, the Islamic

tools are in the stage of growth, development and expansion and they are being exercised in the daily

transactions. As the theoretical aspect of the Islamic financial system is still in the early stages, there are

continuous efforts to develop Islamic tools compliant with the Islamic Law( Shariah).

For this reason, the effect of the Islamic financial tools on some economic variable have not been received

due attention by other researchers. Therefore, this study is conducted to highlight the effect of the Islamic

financial tools on the domestic investment, the economic growth, the Gross Domestic Product and

inflation.

The research is a case study of Jordan Islamic Bank which was founded in 1973. As it is the oldest

Islamic bank in the country. Therefore ,it is chosen for this case study to find out the extent of the effect

of Islamic banking on some economic variables in Jordan through the various processes of Islamic

financing such as musharakah (partnership Financing ) ,Murabaha(mark up or cost plus financing ) and

Ijara (Lit: letting on lease ) .

The Islamic banks are distinct from other banks by the fact that they are based on the application of the

Islamic banking system which does not adopt the usury system in its operations. In Islamic banking

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terms, money cannot be sold but it can be used for funding through using the modern Islamic financial

tools or selling goods through Murabaha (Mark up or Cost plus financing ), which is a particular kind of

sale, compliant with Shariah, where the seller expressly mentions the cost he has incurred on the

commodities for sale and sells it to another person by adding some profit or mark-up thereon which is

known to the buyer.

On the contrary, the usury or interest banking system considers money as a commodity that can be sold

for interest. Therefore, this study emanates not only from the inability of the traditional financial tools to

meet the needs and requirements of investment in various sectors, but also because the majority of the

Jordanian populations are Muslims. Therefore, the study seeks to evaluate the effect of the Islamic

financing system on the Gross Domestic Product, the domestic investment, inflation and economic

growth.

This study investigates the impact of Islamic financing system on some macroeconomic variables in

Jordan. The paper is divided into five sections.Section 1 is the introduction; section 2 is the literature

review. Section 3 includes the methodology used in analyzing the relationship between Islamic finance

system and some macroeconomic variables used in this study. Section 4 is dedicated to the discussion of

the results and Section 5 is dedicated to the conclusion.

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2. Literature Review:

2.1 Empirical Evidence

This section is a review of the related studies addressing the determinants (factors) of the characteristics

of Islamic banks , the financial operations , the impact of macroeconomic variables (external variables),

bank characteristics (internal variables) , profitability and the relationships between Islamic banking

development and economic growth.

Among the studies reviewed are:

Bahar,(1999). states that Islamic banking is significant because it presents a financial intermediation

system that lets the world population benefit from the savings of Muslims worldwide and vice versa.

Islamic finance is important to the world economy because it goes together with the traditional system

and tackles the conventional systems incapability of assimilating the Islamic markets and into the global

economy.

Bashir and Hassan (2000). studied the effect of bank characteristics on Islamic banks financial

performance. They found that profitability is positively correlated to equity to total assets, but related to

loans ratios inversely. Also, they found out that expansion has a positive and significant effect on the

Islamic banks financial performance.

Al-Qudah & Jaradat,(2013) examined the effect of external variables and internal variables of the bank on

the effectiveness of Jordanian Islamic banks for the period (20002011). They concluded that the bank

size had a positive and significant effect on returns on assets (ROA) and returns on equity (ROE).

Whereas the leverage measured by total deposit to total assets had a negative but significant effect on

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(ROA) and (ROE). Also they found that macroeconomic factors ( external variables) of Amman Stock

Exchange Index, construction licensed square meters and money supply growth were good.

Yusoff, Adebola and Dahalan (2011) examined the effect of conventional bank interest rate on the

volume of financing of Islamic banks in Malaysia for the period 2006:12 to 2011:3, The omitted variable

bias was provided for by including several additional explanatory control variables such as production

index, real effective exchange rate, price index and stock market index. The relationship among the

variables was examined with the ARDL approach to co-integration.

Using empirical evidence to show the role of Islamic banks financing on economic performance ,Yazdan

and Sadr (2012) studied the short-run and the long-run relationships between Islamic banking

development and economic growth in a study that involved Iran and Indonesia. They utilized the

quarterly data (2000:1-2010:4). They also examined modes of Islamic financing and the extent of

commercial banks application of the Islamic banking law. They found significant bi-directional

correlation between the short-run and the long-run relationships between Islamic banking development

and economic growth.

Tabash and Dhankar(2014) carried out a study that examined the correlation between the development

of Islamic financing system and the economy growth in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Time series

data from 1990 to 2010 were used to document the relationship between the development of Islamic

finance and economic growth, They found that the Islamic Banks financing has positively contributed to

the increase of investment in UAE on the long run.

Another study byTabash and Dhankar(2014) also examined the relationship between the development of

Islamic finance system and economic growth in Qatar. They found that in the long run, Islamic banks

financing is positive and significantly correlated with economic growth in Qatar.

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Mohagheghniya , Khalighi and Bakhtiyari (2013) studied the impact of Islamic banking loans to various

contracts compliant with Islamic Law (Shariah) on the GDP of Iran during (2000 to 2010) . In this

research the ARDL and VAR approach was adopted to estimate the function of long run relation. They

found out that the former case showed that contracts have a significant and positive effect on GDP.

Thus , the literature reveals considerable gaps in research pertaining to Islamic Financing system. Few

studies have been conducted to examine the impact of Islamic finance on domestic investment and

inflation, In light of this knowledge shortage, the present paper is a case study of Jordan Islamic Bank ; it

presents new empirical evidence pertaining to the impact of the Islamic financing system on the

microeconomic variables in Jordan.

3.The Sample and Methodology

3.1 The Sample

The study used Jordan Islamic Bank as a sample while the other banks (Dubai Islamic Bank , the Al

Rajhi Bank) are not involved by the study because they did not qualify for the sample of the study they

were opened in Jordan in 2010 and 2011 respectively. So, they lack enough relevant data. The study

covered the period 20002011. The present study chose the Jordan Islamic bank as a case study to

examine the factors that affect microeconomic variables in Jordan. The data used in the present study is

obtained from the database of Jordan Islamic bank, central bank of Jordan and Department of Statistics of

Jordan.

3.2 Methodology

This study adopts the panel data for the empirical analysis of Islamic finance effect on certain

macroeconomic variables in Jordan. The data is obtained from the database of Jordan Islamic bank,

central bank of Jordan and Department of Statistics of Jordan.

In other words, macroeconomic variables are employed to test the study hypotheses.

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3.2.1 Independent Variables

Islamic Financing: The Islamic financing system provides in kind or incorporeal financing services to

the various establishments compliant with the rules and principles of the Islamic Law(

Shariah),according to technical legal criteria and controls to enable them play effective roles in

achieving economic and social development( Baltaji, 2005). The types of services provided by Jordan

Islamic bank include the following (Islamic Bank yearly report, 2008):

1-Murabaah: It entails that the seller expressly mentions the cost he has incurred on the commodities for

sale and sells it to another person by adding some profit or mark-up thereon which is known to the buyer.

As the requirement includes an "honest declaration of cost", Murabaah is one of three types of bayu-al-

amanah (fiduciary sale). The other two types of bayu-al-amanah are tawliyah (sale at cost) and wadiah

(sale at specified loss). Murabaha for the customers which allows the bank to sell its customer who

demands to buy a commodity at cost price plus fixed profit and the last type is Murabaha bi Waad or

Banking profit.

2- Musharakah - Partnership Financing :it is sometimes referred to as Islamic joint- venture financing. It

is an arrangement between the bank and the customer (borrower) where both parties agree to make a

capital contribution towards financing a commercial operation, share profits from the arrangement at a

pre-agreed ratio and the losses from the arrangement need to be shared pro-rata to the capital

contributions of each of the parties. This partnership is of three kinds: permanent, diminishing and

partnership ending with ownership.

3- Ijara: Lease : It is the ownership with benefit or compensation and it has two types:

a - Operation lease: It refers to the lease contracts that end without transferring the ownership of leased

assets to the lessee.

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B: Lease to Purchase: It refers to the lease contracts that end with transferring the ownership of leased

assets to the lessee.

4- Financial assets held for trading: Financial investments are acquired and created in order to obtain

profits through short-term changes in prices or profit margin.

5-Assets available for deferred sale: They are the assets owned by the bank to be sold through deferred

sale by installments. This kind of sale is known as bargain sale with installments. This makes it different

from mark up sale demanded by the buyer.

6- Investments in Associates: Allied Companies are those companies that are not controlled by the bank

,but it exercises significant influence on their decisions regarding the financial and operating policies .

The bank has the ratio ranging from 20% to 50% of the voting rights.

7-Real Investments in real estate: They are the acquisition of real estate or land or part of it in order to

obtain regular income or they are retained for potential increase in their value in the future or for both.

8- Financial assets held to maturity: They are the investments that the bank has a positive orientation and

the ability to keep them until maturity.

3.2.2 Dependent Variables:

The dependent variables are the significant macroeconomic variables affected either positively or

negatively by of Islamic finance. They are:

A - Economic Growth :

It is an increase in income or gross domestic product at current prices, and it is expressed as the rate of

growth of GDP at current market prices, and is calculated by the following equation ( The present year

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GDP at the current prices minus the GDP of the previous year current prices / GDP previous year current

prices) ( Alawneh, 2012)

B- Inflation: It is a sustained rise of the general level of prices, leading to a decline in purchasing power

of cash, or currency devaluation. And it is termed as the rate of inflation. (Central Bank of Jordan, various

issues)

C- Domestic Investment:

It is the capital spending of the government, individuals ,private institutions and projects in order to add

new productive capacities to the existing productive assets of the community. In other words, it is the

public investment plus the private investment. (Alawneh, 2012).

D-Gross Domestic Product: GDP represents the total values of all goods and services intended for final

use and produced in the economy during the year at current prices (Central Bank of Jordan, various

issues).

3.2.3 Regression Models: Four regression models will be used, two simple regression models and two

multiple regression models, to study the impact of Islamic finance of some economic variables as follows:

The first model: The simple linear regression method will be adopted using the program (E-views) to

study the effect of the independent variable on the GDP according to the following regression equation:

GDP= a + B1FS (-3) +E

Whereas:

FS lagged (-3): Islamic finance (financial instruments used in the Jordan Islamic Bank

a: hard in the regression equation

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GDP lagged (-3): GDP at current prices.

B1: Regression parameter to be estimated.

E: random error.

The second model: the simple linear regression method will be adopted using the program (E-views) to

study the effect of the independent variable on the domestic investment according to the following

regression equation:

I(-3) = a0 + B1FS(-3) +E

Whereas

I lagged (-3): domestic investment.

The third model: The multiple linear regression method and the program (E-views) will be used to study

the effect of the independent variable on economic growth according to the following regression equation:

IN(1)= a0 + B1FS(2) + B2GDP(2) + E

Whereas:

IN lagged (1): the rate of inflation.

The fourth model: The multiple linear regression method and the program (E-views) are used to study the

effect of the independent variable of the rate of the economic growth according to this equation:

GDPG(-3)= a0 + B1FS+ B2GDP + E

Whereas:

GDPG lagged (-3): economic growth rate

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3.2.4 The Study Hypotheses:

In light of the literature review and economic theory the present study examines the following

hypotheses:

H1: There is a positive relationship between Islamic finance and Gross Domestic Product

H2: There is a positive relationship between Islamic finance and domestic investment.

H3: There is a negative relationship between Islamic finance and inflation rate.

H4: There is a positive relationship between Islamic finance and Economic Growth

4. Regression Analysis

4.1- Effect of Islamic finance on GDP.

Using (E-views) the model was estimated and the results were

GDP =3735.956 + 1.30E-05FS(-3)

T : (2.455591)*** (7.008859)***

Table -1

Regression Model Results

Dependent Variable: GDP

Variable Coefficient t- Statistic Prob.

FS(-3) 1.30E-05 7.008859 0.0002

C 3735.956 2.455591 0.0437

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R- Squared: 87%

Adjusted R- Squared: 85%

F-Statistic : 49

Prob(F-statistic ) : 0.00

Durbin-Watson stat : 2.33

The model clearly shows that the Adjusted R- Squared is about( % 85 ).This shows that the change in the

independent variable explains about (%85) of the changes in the dependent variable while the value of

the F-statistic was (49) with zero Probability F-statistic. This means that the model is statistically

significant. The value of Durbin-Watson stat is (2.33), which means that the model is appropriate and

statistically significant as there is no autocorrelation problem or (Systematic Error) difference between the

expected and the real the dependent variable.

The analog estimation of the model shows that the relationship between the change in Islamic finance and

the change in the overall gross domestic is positive as the estimated impact of Islamic finance is (8.17E-

06), that is, there is a positive relationship between the effect of a change in Islamic finance and the

change in GDP. This result is consistent with the literature or the financial and economic theories which

found a positive relationship between Islamic finance and GDP.

According to the test T-Test, this result is statistically significant at the level (1%) i.e. the confidence level

for this variable is equal to (99%) which indicates the acceptance of the hypothesis, and this stipulates the

presence of the impact of Islamic finance on GDP.

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4.2 The impact of Islamic Finance (Islamic financial instruments)on the Domestic Investment:

The (E-views) program the model was used to estimate the model and the results were as follows:

I(-3) = -42052.65 + 0.000367 FS(-3)

T: (-0.816338) (15.28221)***

Table-2

Results of regression model

Dependent Variable: I (-3)

Variable Coefficient t- Statistic Prob.

FS(-3) 0.000367 5.853251 0.0006

C -42052.65 -0.816338 0.4412

R- Squared: 85%

Adjusted R- Squared: 83%

F-Statistic : 83

Prob(F-statistic ) : 0.00

Durbin-Watson stat : 2 .41

It is clear that the Adjusted R- Squared is (% 83) .This shows that the change in the independent variable

explains about (%83) of the changes in the dependent the variable while the value of the F-statistic was

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(63) with zero Probability F-statistic. This means that the model is statistically significant. The value of

Durbin-Watson stat is (2.41), which means that the model is appropriate and statistically significant as

there is no autocorrelation problem or (Systematic Error) difference between the expected and the real the

dependent variable.

The analog estimation of the model shows that the relationship between the change in Islamic finance and

the change in domestic investment is positive as the estimated impact of Islamic finance is (0.00367), that

is, there is a positive relationship between the effect of a change in Islamic finance and the change in the

domestic investment. This result is consistent with the literature or the financial and economic theories

which found a positive relationship between Islamic finance and the domestic investment.

According to the test T-test, this result has a statistical significance at the level (1%) i.e. the confidence

level for this variable is equal to (99%) indicating the acceptance of the hypothesis, which stipulates the

presence of the relationship between the Islamic finance and the domestic investment.

4.3 The impact of Islamic Finance (Islamic financial instruments) on the Inflation Rate:

The (E-views) program the model was used to estimate the model and the results were as follows:

IN(1)= -6.388550 + -5.35E-10 FS(2)+ 0.001188 GDP(2)

T: (-3.543328)*** (-6.225114)*** (6.474016)***

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Table -3: Results of the regression model

Dependent Variable: IN(1)

Variable Coefficient t- Statistic Prob.

FS(3) -5.35E-10 -6.225114 0.0008

GDP(1) 0.001188 6.474016 0.0006

C -6.388550 -3.543328 0.0122

R- Squared: 88%

Adjusted R- Squared: 84%

F-Statistic : 23

Prob(F-statistic ) : 0.01

Durbin-Watson stat 2 .80

It is clear that the Adjusted R- Squared is( % 84) .This shows that the change in the independent variable

explains about (%84) of the changes in dependent the variable while the value of the F-statistic was

(22) with %1 Probability F-statistic. This means that the model is statistically significant. The value of

Durbin-Watson stat is (2.47), which means that the model is appropriate and statistically significant as

there is no autocorrelation problem or (Systematic Error) difference between the expected and the real the

dependent variable.

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The analog estimation of the model shows that the relationship between the change in Islamic finance and

the change in the inflation rate is negative as the estimated impact of Islamic finance is (-5.35E-10), that

is, there is a negative relationship between the effect of a change in Islamic finance and the change in

inflation rate. This result is consistent with the literature or the financial and economic theories which

found a negative relationship between Islamic finance and inflation rate.

According to the test T-Test, this result has a statistical significance at the level (1%) i.e. the confidence

level for this variable is equal to (99%) indicating the acceptance of the hypothesis, which stipulates the

presence of a negative relationship between the Islamic finance and the inflation rate.

4.4 The Effect of Islamic Finance (Islamic financial instruments) on the Economic Growth Rate:

The (E-views) program the model was used to estimate the model and the results were as follows:

GDP(-3) = -3.184364 + 4.15E-10 FS + 0.000953GDP

T: (-1.483620) (4.492444)*** (5.750013 )***

Table-4: The regression Model Results

Dependent Variable: GDPG(-3)

Variable Coefficient t- Statistic Prob.

GDP 0.000953 5.750013 0.0012

FS 4.15E-10 4.492444 0.0041

C -3.184364 -1.483620 0.1884

R- Squared: 92%

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Adjusted R- Squared: 90%

F-Statistic : 37.8

Prob(F-statistic ) : 0.00

Durbin-Watson stat 3 .25

It is clear that the Adjusted R- Squared is (% 92) .This shows that the change in the independent variable

explains about (%90) of the changes in dependent the variable while the value of the F-statistic was (37)

with zero Probability F-statistic. This means that the model is statistically significant. The value of

Durbin-Watson stat is (3.25), which means that the model is appropriate and statistically significant as

there is no autocorrelation problem or (Systematic Error) difference between the expected and the real the

dependent variable.

The analog estimation of the model shows that there is a positive relationship between the change in

Islamic finance and the change in the economy growth as the estimated impact of Islamic finance is

(4.15E-10), that is, there is a positive relationship between the effect of the change in Islamic finance and

the change in economic growth rate. This result is consistent with the literature or the financial and

economic theories which found a positive relationship between Islamic finance and GNP.

According to the test T-Test, this result has a statistical significance at the level (1%) i.e. the confidence

level for this variable is equal to (99%) indicating the acceptance of the hypothesis, which stipulates the

presence of the relation between the Islamic finance and GDP.

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5. Conclusions:

This study shows the following:

1. There is a statistically significant relationship between the Islamic finance and GDP. This result entails

not only the expansion of Islamic finance but also the derivation of new Islamic financial instruments to

boost the GDP.

2.There is a statistically significant positive correlation between Islamic finance and domestic investment,

and this means the possibility of handling the weakness of the domestic investment in the developing

countries through the expansion of the Islamic financing with Islamic financial instruments, and the use

of Islamic financial engineering to derive new financial instruments.

3. There is a statistically significant negative correlation between Islamic finance and the rate of inflation.

This means that Islamic finance is a real financing of goods and services, or there is a need for the

production of new goods and services in the economic field.

4. There is a statistically significant positive correlation between Islamic finance and the economic

growth rate. This emphasizes the positive effect of the Islamic finance on the GDP and domestic

investment which boost the pace of the economy that enhances the economic growth.

Finally, the study recommends the need to take care of the role of Islamic finance, the derivation of new

Islamic financial instruments, and enhancing the study of Islamic financial engineering in institutes and

colleges at universities. It also recommends conducting further studies in this area besides finding

professional, efficient researchers and experts who can derive new tools from the Quran and Prophets

Sunnah.

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