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"Le moment populiste", part 3. The

GEOPOLITICS
price of...

ALAIN DE BENOIST 13.10.2017

Boulevard Voltaire introduces its

readers to a recent book that the
editorial team appreciated. Every day,
a new extract is published. Le
Moment...

POLITICS

"Le moment populiste", part 1. The

right...

ALAIN DE BENOIST 11.10.2017

Boulevard Voltaire introduces its 10.10.2017

readers to a recent book that the
editorial team appreciated. Every day,
a new extract is published. Le
Moment...
GEOPOLITICS
An Analysis of the International
Stage
Andrew Korybko
Forecasting is an art which always aims for accuracy, but is rarely perfect. The best analysts are
aware of the obvious limitations to their work and therefore endeavor to provide decision makers
with at least several scenarios whenever their skills are called upon. The outcome of their eorts
gets broader and more generalized the further into the future that their forecasts are expected to
penetrate, and they can always be oset by unexpected black swan events that completely
change the scenario trajectories. In any case, scenario forecasting is important because it presents
thought-provoking visions of the future that are ultimately somewhat accurate to varying degrees,
thereby allowing decision makers and regular folks alike to reevaluate the present and better
prepare for what might be to come.

MARCELO GULLO 17.08.2017

A Reection on the Search for the
Direction of Aairs
Bearing this noble purpose in mind, the present research attempts to prognosticate the contours
of the post-Multipolar World Order in view of the authors recent analysis on the topic of the
transitional global system and his previous two-year-long research about Hybrid Wars. These
works form the frame of reference through which the current one will be analyzed, and readers
are encouraged to review those studies if theyre not already familiar with them. The overarching
idea is that the US is poised to wage identity-centric Hybrid Wars against the geostrategic transit
states along Chinas New Silk Road competitive connectivity corridors all across the world.

Its therefore assumed that some of Beijings ambitious One Belt One Road (OBOR) projects wont
succeed, but most of them probably will, thereby heralding in a new system of Silk Road
Globalization, which is intrinsically designed to compete with the existing one of Western
Globalization by rerouting trade to the East. Theres no telling which of the two competing
globalizations will emerge as the most prominent after the US Hybrid War oensives are nally
concluded or at the very least begin to slow down, but either way, the prevailing trend is that some
system of globalization will eventually succeed and that this future is seemingly irreversible. Thats
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not necessarily the case, however, as will be explained further on in the research, but presuming
that this tendency holds across the century, then its likely that the ongoing process of
globalization will lead to Civilizationalism.

From Globalization To Civilizationalism
Samuel Huntington is best known for identifying civilizations as an important emerging actor in
International Relations, though his theory about them clashing essentially reads as an American-
written blueprint for dividing and ruling the Eastern Hemisphere all throughout the 21st century.
Huntingtons foil is the Neo-Eurasianist thinker Alexander Dugin, who has expostulated on at
length about how civilizations could cooperate instead of clash. Neither thinker, however, foresaw
the inuence that Chinas One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity would
have on catapulting civilizations to the future forefront of International Relations, but as argued by
the author in his previous work on the 21st-Century Geopolitics Of The Multipolar World Order,
Beijing is doing more than any other Great Power to link civilizations together through its
worldwide infrastructure projects.

If left unhindered, then theyll inevitably lead to a Convergence of Civilizations, and even Hybrid
Civilizationalism, which will be touched upon later in the forecast, but the US Hybrid Wars will
probably scuttle a few of them and prevent this from happening. In the areas of the world where
Washington is dominant, whether in its own Western Civilization or elsewhere, similar connectivity
processes will continue to unfold, thus allowing for a strengthening of each civilization (Western
and Chinese) and their steady integration with others, all of which is dependent on the trade
routes between them which will serve as stitches tying the various parts together. Economic
integration as spurred by infrastructure construction leads to new travel, study, and migration
patterns, which will cause diering civilizations to enter into regular interaction with one another
that could then serve to foster a complex interdependency between them which might mitigate
the chance of them clashing.

The New Nationalism/Resurrected Sovereignty

Thats just the theory, though, since local factors such as those primarily dealing with newcomers
assimilation and integration predispositions (whether traders, tourists, students, or migrants)
have already been proven to inspire the counter-zeitgeist of New Nationalism, or in some of its
variations, Resurrected Sovereignty. The concept is that some populations resisted globalization
whether Western-led or driven by the New Silk Roads and pushed back with Brexit, Trump, and
Polands anti-migrant/-EU policies, to name but the most notable examples throughout 2016-2017,
because they want to restore their states lost sovereignty by freeing it from the clutches of
globalism.

As the years go on, its expected that this trend will manifest itself in dierent ways depending on
the country involved, which may or may not be the leading entity in any given civilization, and will
obviously encounter various rates of success. All of this is very dicult to accurately predict so far
in advance of it happening, but what could potentially be more precisely pinpointed is the location
where the trend of New Nationalism/Resurrected Sovereignty will gain the most traction, and that
will probably be in the transit civilizations-states along the New Silk Roads. Being irreplaceably
crucial to these connectivity corridors, the given civilization and/or state might opt to maximize its
geostrategic position through the strategy of Economic Nationalism, such as what Poland might
be poised to do in the near future.

It would be to the grand strategic benet of China and its multipolar allies if Silk Road
Globalization didnt encounter the obstacle of Economic Nationalism and its potential evolution
into any forms of New Nationalism/Resurrected Sovereignty which hinder their collective goal of
replacing the Western-led international order via rerouted connectivity and trade corridors, but its
natural that some transit states might encounter grassroots resistance to this and/or be
encouraged by outside actors (the unipolar US and its Lead From Behind stakeholders in the
existing world system) to push back against it. This could prove troublesome for the emerging
Multipolar World Order and could also backre on the US unipolar one unless Washington takes
the lead in pioneering a global movement towards Economic Nationalism.

The AI-Robotic Revolution

No future forecast would be complete without commenting on the black swan impact of the AI-
Robotic Revolution, which his set to fundamentally transform the lifestyle of most human beings.
The exact nature of how this plays out will of course vary depending on the civilization/state, but it
can be condently predicted that the eects of this will be most heavily concentrated in the urban
locales where the global masses congregate. The trend of urbanization will proceed unabated, and
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the vast majority of the worlds population will continue to live within close proximity to the global
ocean, which will become more important than ever because of the extraction of oshore energy
reserves and deep sea mining. The rural hinterland between each civilization/state will only pretty
much be good for agriculture, natural resources, and connectivity/trade routes (New Silk Roads),
though the rst might be replaced by urban farming if the technology is rened and catches on by
that point.

The rise of advanced robot workers will lead to the dispensing of a universal basic income (UBI)
to the many citizens whose livelihoods are displaced by this paradigm shift. The smart cities that
they inhabit will increasingly come to be controlled, regulated, and governed by decision-making
AI innitely more capable of proactively identifying and preemptively acting upon relevant
patterns than humans are, and the streets will be patrolled by robotic policemen (some of which
will be autonomous). The unemployed masses will need something to do with their newfound free
time and UBI credits, so many of them might be encouraged at least by Western
civilizations/states to engage in social hedonism such as drugs, orgies, and most importantly, the
articial world of virtual reality (VR). Of course, each civilization/state will nd and encourage
dierent things for the majority of their unemployed population to do in order to keep them from
rioting or being exploited by foreign rivals to do so, but its likely that VR will nevertheless play
some part in this.

Strapping on a VR headset and diving into what might by then be a meticulously crafted
alternative universe modelled along the lines of the one rst thought of in the sci- dystopian
novel Ready Player One will amount to voluntary imprisonment from the perspective of the
ruling AI (but human-supervised) authorities. This is signicant to point out because states
(especially post-modern ones, but not necessarily traditionalist ones) might actually prefer for
their people to be plugged into a matrix than to risk being bored or dissatised to the point of
using 3D printing technology (which could be highly regulated by that point) to manufacture
weapons in starting a riot or revolution. The matrix of VR, however, isnt without its own security
risks too, since this platform might become the point of contact for hostile foreign forces to
engage with a given civilization/states population in encouraging them to rise up and disrupt their
rivals socio-robotic urban system, hence the need for Big Data to integrate with VR policing in
enforcing a totalitarian surveillance state.

Periphery Problems
The rural regions outside of the big cities will be sparsely populated and relevant pretty much only
as it relates to agriculture, resources, and trade/connectivity corridors, like it was mentioned in the
previous section, but the strategic threats facing these peripheries are perhaps even more
important than the ones in the urban centers. Maritime trade networks will still probably be
important in the future, but the overland New Silk Roads that China is charting will expectedly
replace overseas trade to a large extent if for none other than the strategic reason that no
civilization/state (except insular ones) would feel comfortable being totally dependent on foreign
naval-controlled or inuenced routes if they could help it, hence the guiding motivation for OBOR
in the rst place. Whether its to trade with ones neighbors, or in the case of many African
civilizations/states, to extract natural resources (be they agricultural, energy, or mineral), theres no
denying that the rural hinterland will in many cases be the vital lifeline keeping cities alive.

These areas will likely be population deserts owing to the trend of big city urbanization and
subsequently voluntary imprisonment through VR, except in the cases of an already existing
transit civilization/state (which might come to embrace Economic Nationalism and/or its aliated
New Nationalism/Resurrected Sovereignty ideology), but theyll be the locations where rivals battle
in determining the fate of their citizens. Just as the Hybrid Wars of the rst half of the 21st century
are expected to be waged in these transit regions, so too will the robotic wars of the second half of
the century play out here as competing forces try to sever their rivals lifelines. In some cases, they
might even seek to support rebel humans disgruntled with the post-modern, urbanist, and/or
escapist tendencies in the big cities, but more than likely robotic weapons systems will be superior
on all accounts in this theater (with humans having an edge in inciting chaos in the heart of the big
city via externally provoked Color Revolutions instigated through VR inltration).

Electricity Warfare
Society will for all intents and purposes be wholly dependent on electricity to feed the robot and
AI overlords presiding over each civilization/state in the coming future, thereby making this
utility the oxygen of the future and consequently the target of its rivals. Its not known whether
power plants be they nuclear, solar, or otherwise will be concentrated in the urban jungles or
the rural peripheries, with each location having its own strategic advantages and disadvantages,
but theyll still become the most sought-after targets in any future military conicts because their
disabling or destruction on an eective enough scale would disarm their opponents robot armies
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(whether immediately or with time, depending on their battery capabilities, charging method, and
length of time between charges). It would also spark a debilitating societal breakdown in their
cities as the population is involuntarily freed from their self-admitted VR prisons only to nd out
that the AI-driven state can no longer provide for any of their needs, especially crucial life-
sustaining ones such as food, water, and potentially even psychiatric medicine supply.

There will be multiple means to achieve this outcome against a civilization/state adversary, but the
most eective will probably be through space wars as fought with weaponized satellites, rst
between one another high up in the heavens and then with the victorious force scorching their
enemys power grid with impunity down below. EMPs could predictably become the standard
Weapons of Mass Destruction in the future, inicting even more societal chaos than what
unfolded in the novel One Second After because of mankinds much more heightened
dependency on technology by that time. Another possibility could obviously be through
cyberweapons and hackers, who would be more akin to stormtroopers than the Death Star
that space-based weapons would be, but which would in any case be able to inict strategic
damage on an adversary. Electricity Wars could also be fought by disrupting, controlling, and/or
inuencing the routes and/or locations from which a given civilization/state obtains their
electricity-producing resources in order to blackmail them.

Its conceivable that rival militaries will not want to inict direct physical damage on their
opponents aside from targeting their electricity-producing infrastructure except whenever
necessary in order to retain as much of the (robot-produced) economic-producing capabilities as
possible for them to expropriate afterwards, unless of course their objective was to destroy their
rival and take them completely out of the game. The one thing holding civilizations/states back
from this, however, would probably be an electricity/satellite equivalent of the nuclear weapons-
era concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), whereby if a tripwire is reached, then the
other side would respond with full force in taking out the rst attacker. While stabilizing to a
degree, it also carries with it the same risks of an inadvertent escalation which sets mankind back
to the Stone Age, though in this scenario without the physical destruction associated with the
direct use of nuclear weapons hitting the earth.

The Rise Of Civilizations

Having described the nature of the prospective globalized future whether Western-led, driven by
the New Silk Roads, or a hybrid thereof its now time to talk more thoroughly about the role that
civilizations will have within this larger paradigm. To begin with, Samuel Huntingtons 9 examined
civilizations might make for a good starting point, but theyre woefully inadequate for explaining
the contours of the future Civilizational World Order.

Firstly, each civilization can actually be broken down into several others, some of which overlap
with dierent ones. Heres a brief breakdown of how it all looks:

Western:
* American (US, Canada, and Greenland)
* Western/Central European

* Greater Anglo-Saxon
* Mediterranean

* Hungarian
* Greater Scandinavian

* Polish
* Hungarian

* Austronesian

Orthodox:

* Balkan
* Russian

* Kazakh (Turkic)

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Muslim:
* North African

* Turkic
* Levantine

* Gulf
* Persian

* South Asian (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh)

* Central Asian (Turkic, including Xinjiang)
* Insular ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippine island of Mindanao)

* Swahili Coast

Hindu:
* Indian

* Nepali
* parts of Guyana, Suriname, and Trinidad & Tobago

Japanese: (only Japan)

Buddhist:
* Mongolian

* Tibetan
* Greater Mekong Subregion/Mainland ASEAN (both without Vietnam)/Theravada
Buddhist

Sinic:

* Chinese (minus Tibet and Xinjiang, could be further divided into Mandarin- and
Cantonese-speaking)
* Korean

* Vietnamese
* Part of the northern Philippines (the island of Luzon)

African:
* Gulf of Guinea/West African Coast

* Central African
* Ethiopian

* East African (the East African Community/Federation minus South Sudan)

* Cape Culture/Southern African

Latin American:
* Mexican

* Central American
* Caribbean

* Colombian
* Amazon

* Andean
* Southern Cone (Paraguay, Uruguay, Argentina, Chile)
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* Brazilian

As can be seen from the above, Huntington oversimplied civilizations on the basis of religion.
There are 4 Christian ones (Western, Orthodox, African, and Latin American), 3 Buddhist (Sinic,
Japanese, Buddhist), and then a single Hindu and Muslim one each, although only the latter two
are apparently indivisible to him. Interestingly, however, he doesnt include the Muslim countries
of Bosnia, Albania, and the self-declared one of Kosovo in Europe as part of the Ummah
(international Muslim community), nor the Muslim autonomous republics of Russia or the Chinese
autonomous region of Xinjiang. Similarly, India is assumed by Huntington to be purely Hindu,
despite some estimates indicating that it has more Muslims than neighboring Pakistan.

There are other such oversights in his approach such as failing to properly account for some
countries mixed religious population which are associated with a specic geography (ex:
Christians in eastern Indonesia), but the point to be made overall is that the broad religious
brushstrokes that Huntington used in crafting his theory dont explain the diversity and even
sometimes conict within his specied civilizations. Thats why the authors own breakdown of
each of Huntingtons original 9 civilizations is so valuable in better grasping the full range of
civilizational actors that are primed to become international ones in the future.

To make everything easier for the reader, heres what each larger civilization looks like when
broken down by sub-/pivot-civilizations:

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* Red: American (US and Canada)

* Orange: Mexican
* Yellow: Central American

* Dark Blue: Caribbean

* Cyan: Colombian

* Green: Amazon
* Brown: Andean

* Purple: Southern Cone

* Pink: Brazilian

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* Grey: Greater Anglo-Saxon

* Orange: Mediterranean

* Yellow: Hungarian

* Cyan: Greater Scandinavian

* Red: Polish

* Green: Russian

* Pink: Turkic
* Lavender: Persian

* Light Blue: Levantine

* Murky Blue: North African

* Murky Blue: North African

* Green: Gulf of Guinea/West African

* Orange: Central African

* Dark Blue: Ethiopian

* Purple: Swahili Coast-Somalian

* Light Green: East African Community/Federation

* Cape Culture/Southern African

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Pink: Turkic

Green: Russian-Orthodox

Lavender: Persian
Cyan: Levantine

Murky Blue: North African

Grey: Ethiopian
Yellow: Swahili Coast-Somalian

Light Green: South Asian

Purple: Tibetan

Dark Blue: Sinic

Golden: Mongolian

Orange: Greater Mekong Subregion/Mainland Southeast Asia/Theravada Buddhist

Green: Russia-Orthodox

Grey: Japanese
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y J p

Dark Blue: Sinic

Golden: Mongolian

Purple: Tibetan
Light Green: South Asian

Orange: Greater Mekong Subregion/Mainland Southeast Asia/Theravada Buddhist

Cyan: Insular ASEAN

Lavender: Austronesian (Christian-Western)

The civilizations delineated in the above maps are rough estimates that are admittedly limited in
terms of what they represent, yet they still do a more eective job of highlighting the civilizational
diversity in the world than Huntingtons framework. Each examined civilization doesnt always act
as a unied whole, and they sometimes transcend state and religious boundaries. Furthermore,
the civilizational actors can either cooperate or clash with their peers, and oftentimes they do so
within their own boundaries more frequently than outside of them.

Another point is that some of the minor civilizations that make up each macro one, such as the
Serbian civilization within the larger Balkan one, are dying out due to an ever-dwindling
population cause by high out-migration and low birth rates. This means that theyll probably be
subsumed into the larger whole sooner or later, with their specicities preserved online, in the
diaspora, and in local community centers, but that theyll for all intents and purposes play an ever
weakening role in this future paradigm.

The presented model is therefore clearly imperfect in illustrating the abovementioned nuances,
yet its more workable than what Huntington presented, and it allows the reader to visualize how
the Western-led and New Silk Road globalizations are leading to a convergence of civilizations via
trade-connectivity corridors. Accordingly, this is also furthering the inevitable end of Hybrid
Civilizationalism so long as the previous two globalization trajectories remain on track and arent
oset by New Nationalism/Resurrected Sovereignty (whether naturally occurring or weaponized
by an adversary).

Hybrid Civilizationalism
Its possible to reimagine Professor Dugins Big Spaces in light of deconstructing Huntingtons 9
civilizations and viewing them through the new paradigm of Silk Road Globalization, accepting that
the total fulllment of Chinas plans would allow for an intermixing of civilizations or Hybrid
Civilization to take place. Of course, the following forecast isnt expected to fully play out as
expected because the US Hybrid Wars will surely sabotage some of Chinas anticipated
connectivity routes, but the below map more or less lays out what the future could have in store
when it comes to civilizational geopolitics (as delineated by present-day state boundaries):

Red: Amero-Hispania

Gold: Eurabia
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Gold: Eurabia

Pink: Sub-Saharan Africa

Green: Eurasia

Blue: Persia

Purple: Chindia

Grey: Austronesia

Amero-Hispania is essentially the US Fortress America geopolitical fallback plan if its successful
in dividing and ruling the Eastern Hemisphere through the Clash of Civilizations blueprint, and
also if Operation Condor 2.0 has already restored Washingtons full hegemony to the hemisphere
by that time. In addition, Greenland is included in this hemispheric civilization because its distance
from Europe will probably insulate it from the ongoing Arabization process there, and its
geostrategic location along the Northern Sea Route coupled with its energy and mineral wealth
make it an indispensable component of the US Fortress America plans.

As for Eurabia, this is the fusion of Europe and the Arab world (the latter of which includes some
non-Arab Muslims from the southern reaches of North Africa) and has received an accelerated
thrust through the 2-year-long migrant crisis. Sub-Saharan Africa, however, falls exactly within
Huntingtons original boundaries and theres nothing new to say in this regard.

Eurasia combines the Russian-Orthodox civilization with the Turkic-Muslim one to create a
supercenter of geostrategic power in the Heartland of the Eurasian supercontinent. Persian
civilization is largely independent but could also integrate with Eurabia, Eurasia, or even Chindia.
The latter of the three is the mega-mass of demographic and economic potential formed by Asias
two largest Great Powers and the worlds two most populous countries. Austronesia, however, is
the least populated of all of the Hybrid Civilizations and is essentially Australias sphere of
inuence in Oceania.

Fault Lines:

None of the Hybrid Civilizations are unitary actors or necessarily at peace with one another
oftentimes not even with themselves and a closer examination reveals many fault lines running
between and even within them, whether naturally occurring or encouraged by outside forces:

From West to East, they are:

* Mexicalixas: The portmanteau of Mexico, California, and Texas, this refers to the borderland
between Mexico and the US which is rife with crime, drugs, and illegal migration, essentially
functioning as both the bridge between both Amero-Hispania elements but also a potential time
bomb for blowing them apart.

* Amazonia: The worlds largest rainforest separates the spheres of inuence between Latin
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American Great Powers Mexico and Brazil, as the latter is expected to obtain hegemony over
everything south of this region through the forthcoming Transoceanic Railroad (TORR), while
Mexico is anticipated to expand its inuence south into Central America and possibly even team
up with fellow Pacic Alliance member Colombia in the northern reaches of South America.

* Mediterranean Sea: This body of water naturally separates the European and Arab parts of
Eurabia, and is crucial to the formers defense against unregulated and limitless migration from
the latter.

* The Frontline States: Nigeria, the Central African Republic, and South Sudan are on the frontlines
in an actual Clash of Civilizations between Islam and Christianity, one which has the dangerous
potential of dragging in religiously mixed Ethiopia too.

* The Rimland: Nicholas Spykmans concept of the Eurasian Rimland is the most extensive fault
line in the world because of the Russian-Polish rivalry, the fractured Balkans, the US Wars on
Syraq and Afghanistan, and the spillover potential (and in some cases, eect) of the latter into
Pakistan, Central Asia, and Xinjiang.

* Himalayas: Tibet, Nepal, the formerly independent Kingdom of Sikkim, and Bhutan can all be
said to collectively constitute a separate Himalayan Civilization between China and India, one
which represents their sphere of rivalry and which also crucially provides freshwater to billions of
people.

* Mahayana-Theravada Line: For the most part, theres a clear geopolitical division between the
Mahayana and Theravada Schools of Buddhism (except for Vietnams inclusion in the rst), and
this forms the frontier between China and ASEAN which has seen such conicts as the 1979
Chinese-Vietnamese War and the overspill of Myanmars civil war into southwestern China.

* Continental-Insular ASEAN Split: The mainland countries of ASEAN in the Greater Mekong
Subregion follow Theravada Buddhism while the insular ones adhere to Islam.

* Korea: The unresolved conict in Korea is well known and doesnt require any additional
elaboration, but it forms the pivotal fault line between China and Japans regional spheres of
inuence.

* Australian Outgrowth Zone: Australia might very well attempt to carve out a sphere of inuence
for itself in the Christian-inhabited islands of eastern Indonesia, some of which previously erupted
in intercommunal bloodshed in the years following Suhartos downfall and could one day
structurally (key qualier) replicate the East Timor scenario of salami slicing Indonesia along
religious lines.

Observations:

A few signicant observations can be gleaned from the inter- and intra-civilizational fault lines
mapped out above:

* Mexicalixas is a geo-demographic reality mixed with historical irredentist claims, and this forms
an existential threat to the US which can only eventually be countered through another Mexican-
American War or the total integration of both states, the latter being what the globalists originally
wanted via the NAFTA mechanism and the North American Union that was supposed to
eventually follow it.

* Amazonia is a massive and largely state-neglected chunk of land that might form a zone of
competition between the Hispanophone Great Power of Mexico and the Lusophone one of Brazil
sometime in the future.

* The EU is facing an historic choice it can either patrol the Mediterranean and regulate
migration across it in order to indenitel pre ent the emergence of E rabia or it can gi e in to
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migration across it in order to indenitely prevent the emergence of Eurabia, or it can give in to
the population dynamics and surrender its civilizational sovereignty following an uncontrollable
ux of Weapons of Mass Migration from the majority-youthful regions to its south and east.

* The ethno-religious wars taking place in Africas frontline states risk sabotaging the promised
African Century of growth and development, and could lead to a chain reaction of conict that
could carry deep into the continents central (particularly Congolese) and eastern reaches
(especially between the Muslim Swahili coast that forms the terminal point of Beijings OBOR
projects and its Christian hinterland) and ultimately stop Chinas planned Silk Road integration
with it, thereby depriving Beijing of the markets that it needs to ooad its excess production to
and thus endangering the socio-economic stability of the Peoples Republic itself.

* Polands Three Seas Intermarium plan for integrating the Central and Eastern European space
would be terrible for Eurabian-Eurasian relations because of Warsaws equal hate for Berlin and
Moscow, but could be benecial for Chinas interests in serving as a north-south corridor straight
into the heart of the Old World.

* The US Wars on Iraq and Syria, followed by Washingtons quest to carve the second geopolitical
Israel of Kurdistan out of both of them, Turkey, and Iran, poses a major threat for stability and
civilizational cohesiveness between Eurabian, Eurasian (most directly Turkish), and Persian
civilizations.

* The US War on Afghanistan spilled over into Pakistan and could put Chinas game-changing
CPEC investments at risk, and it also holds the potential of spreading into Central Asia and adding
a terrorist element to Turkic nationalism there, with dire consequences for Russias Eurasian
solidarity and Chinas security concerns in Xinjiang.

* Tibet has already been turned into a Hybrid War battleground against China, but the entire
Himalayan Region (Tibet, Nepal, Sikkim, and Bhutan) is becoming strategically contested between
China and India.

* Dutch historian Willem van Schendel was the rst to call the Himalayan-Mekong frontier of
Greater Indochina the term Zomia, and its this region which will probably become the ultimate
fault line between China and India as the two Great Powers intensify their New Cold War proxy
tensions with one another all throughout this century.

* The strategic dynamics are such that ASEAN will probably informally split along geographic lines
between its Theravada Buddhist mainland and Muslim islands, with the Philippines representing
the common ground between them and a crucial intra-organizational pivot state to retaining or
inuencing the blocs internal balance of power.

* Australia could either take advantage of the preexisting identity-insecurities in Indonesia, exploit
an unexpected crisis akin to the nationwide chaos of Suhartos downfall, or proactively engineer
Hybrid Wars in the Christian-populated areas of eastern Indonesia in order to carve out a
collection of East Timor-like statelets in forming a longitudinal civilizational corridor connecting
Austronesia with Japan.

The Birth Of New Civilizations

Variables:

The research has thus far identied many of the civilizations active in todays world and forecast
the hybrid ones that will likely form in the future, though recognizing that the list is confessedly
incomplete because it only highlighted the larger groupings of them and doesnt have the scope to
examine their various subcomponents at length. Nevertheless, a few words can be said about the
factors that help shape new civilizations, whether micro ones or their macro counterparts. The
most important variables impacting on a civilizations development including its birth, growth,
hybridization, and decline are demographics (population size, growth rates, and migration),
geography, connectivity prospects (e.g. New Silk Roads, which can lead to civilizational
convergences and facilitate migration), and history.
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g g ), y

Macro-Hybridization:

With this in mind, and placing a particular emphasis on migration (or as Kelly M. Greenhill terms it
in some contexts, Weapons of Mass Migration), one can already see how and why certain
civilizations are merging with others or disappearing. For instance, critics allege that large-scale
Han migration to Tibet after the construction of the rst high-speed railway to Lhasa has led to the
decline of that traditional civilization, while others point out the inevitability of the two sides
convergence given that both populations-civilizations (Sinic and Tibetan) are within the legal
administrative boundaries of the Peoples Republic of China. Similarly, uncontrollable Muslim
migration to Europe is driving the Eurabia concept, just as its Hispanic parallel to the US is doing
the same with Amero-Hispania. Along the same lines, something similar is occurring with Central
Asian Muslim Turkic migration to Russia in propelling Eurasia (understood by the author as the
union of Russian-Orthodox civilizations with Turkic-Muslim ones), and if a related process happens
vis--vis Indonesia to Australia, then it might be possible to one day speak of a Greater
Austronesia which incorporates the entire insular ASEAN, Australian, and South Pacic space.

Micro-Hybridization:

The migration of people across a nearby region can also give rise to more localized hybrid
civilizations, such as Sahelgeria (the Sahel merging with Nigeria) and Ethiopalia (Ethiopia and
Somalia), which could be abused for strategic and/or hegemonic ends by the larger of the two
civilizations (in this case, Nigeria and Ethiopia) if they were strong enough to leverage their power
in that manner. Another outcome of easily traversable geography, interlinked history, and
demographic patterns (high population growth for some minorities and the out-migration of their
kin from their homelands to a nearby territory) is that some civilizational realms might either
come under threat by their neighbor or be compelled to integrate with them as certain groups
form either the battering ram (as perceived from a negative, hostile perspective) or the bridge
(from a positive, friendly vantage point) between them.

Latent Cases:

There are four latent cases of this which should be followed by individuals interested in the topic
of hybrid civilizations.

Theravada

The rst one concerns neighboring encroachment on Theravada Civilization, or mainland ASEAN
minus Vietnam. The latter Sinic-aliated atheist nation-state had a Cold War-era sphere of
inuence over Laos and Cambodia, with it still retaining very close ties with the former and
causing suspicion in the latter. Theres also Insular ASEAN (Muslim) civilization creeping into
southern Thailand, though this isnt so much due to demographics or any given
civilizations/states policy, but rather a legacy of the past whereby the Muslim minority there was
kept within Buddhist Thailands administrative realm. From the Western front, South Asian
civilization, particularly its Muslim component from Bangladesh, lays claim to Myanmars
northwestern state of Rakhine via the Rohingyas. Altogether, these three civilizational fronts are
creating complications for the Theravada one, which lacks any mechanism for unitary decision-
making and action, and contributes to the perception that Buddhists are under attack. This in
turn has engendered a hyper-nationalist reaction from many otherwise moderate Theravada
Buddhists, such as what has been seen in Myanmar over the past couple of years, and which
might become a weaponized trend exploited by the US to advance its Clash of Civilizations
blueprint in ASEAN.

Eurasia/Sinic

The next example is less dramatic and will probably not play out in any similar way to the previous
one that was just described due to the fact that it only involves two civilizations-states, the
Eurasian and Sinic. There have long been fears, many of which are overblown and amplied by
external actors for political infowar purposes, of Chinese migration to Russias sparsely populated
Far Eastern region, with some voices warning that Beijing might one day try to reclaim its lost
territory that it had originally ceded to Russia through one of its 19th century unequal treaties
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territory that it had originally ceded to Russia through one of its 19th-century unequal treaties .
The boundary issue is ocially settled between the two actors, but some people are afraid that it
could re-erupt in the future if the Russian-Chinese partnership ever frays or comes under
question by either side. There are no grounds for predicting that this would happen under the
present circumstances, but an eventual leadership change in both of them coupled with the US
never-ending covert machinations to manufacture a crisis between the two might theoretically be
enough to advance this scenario. In any case, so long as the Russian government controls Sinic-
Han migration to the Far East, then there wouldnt be any plausible pretext for this to ever happen
anyhow.

Latin America

The last two latent cases take place in the Western Hemisphere and involve the Mexican and
Central American civilizations, and the American (US) and Caribbean ones. About the rst, the
signicant out-migration from the so-called Northern Triangle of Guatemala, Honduras, and El
Salvador is a well-known development in regional aairs, but these individuals have thus far been
traveling to the US and only temporarily transiting through Mexico. If the US strengthens its
border security, however, then the migrants might settle in southern (historically Mayan) Mexico
instead, potentially leading to battering ram and bridge scenarios. Likewise, a related pattern is
occurring with the American and Caribbean civilizations, particularly in the state of Florida. Many
people in the southern part of the state around Miami and its environs are descended from
Caribbean migrants (whether legal or illegal), and this is rapidly turning Florida into an outgrowth
of that region. If this trend relentlessly continues as its likely to do, then the American and
Caribbean civilizations might soon merge together just as the former is slated to do with the
Mexican one, thereby making signicant progress on the globalists North American Union plans.

Concluding Thoughts
The Civilizational World Order will proceed from the inevitable Multipolar World Order thats
presently being shaped, though theres no accurate estimate for how long it will take for
civilizations to replace states as actors, though its probable that this will never occur in totality
and that sub-civilizational actors such as national governments will in many cases still be the
ocial practitioners of policy. Nevertheless, the emergence of civilizations as determining factors
in International Relations is an inevitable outcome of the Western-led and Silk Road Globalization
models, but it could potentially be oset by the latest trend of New Nationalism/Resurrected
Sovereignty. This resistance phenomenon is both naturally occurring and externally provoked,
with the latter deliberately targeting transit civilizations-states along Chinas New Silk Roads. Many
of these are already predicted to be Hybrid War battlegrounds in the coming decades because of
their importance to OBOR and Silk Road Globalization, but quite a few of them also interestingly
fall along civilizational fault lines that will also be taken advantage of.

The incompatibility and contradictions that occur at times between state and civilizational borders
(both Huntingtons and the authors own) pose unique Hybrid War threats which will be
instrumentalized by the US and its unipolar allies in the future in slowing down the emerging
Multipolar World Order. Some of the many same identity-based variables weaponized by Hybrid
War strategists (demography, geography, and history) might interestingly be put to positive and
constructive use by China in reinforcing civilizational solidarity within each theater and fostering
the grounds for cooperation between them, though so long as the New Silk Roads are successfully
built in pioneering new connectivity corridors between them. These routes could realistically
overcome the previously mentioned identity dierences within and between civilizations by
making everybody a stakeholder in reconstituting the world order, though they could also
inadvertently exacerbate some of them due to the demographic changes that theyll drive as a
result.

Stitching together civilizations via global New Silk Road networks could lead to the phenomenon
of macro-Hybrid Civilizationalism if carried out to its ultimate completion of uniting together
several models of Regionalized Globalization across the world (ASEAN, Eurasian Union, SAARC,
EU, etc.), though like it was previously mentioned, this will come up against the rising friction
caused by the possible popularization of New Nationalism/Resurrected Sovereignty. This ideology
will most likely rst manifest itself as Economic Nationalism before taking on broader geopolitical
forms that might end up obstructing the New Silk Roads. New Nationalism/Resurrected
Sovereignty isnt inherently anti-multipolar (after all, Russia practices it to a degree), and its proper
implementation could actually end up making the transition from unipolarity to multipolarity
more stable by smoothing over some of the structural socio-economic challenges that might
accompany Silk Road Globalization, but its just that it could also be abused by external forces in
order to sabotage this vision completely.

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Syncretizing all of the various multidimensional trends that were elaborated upon in the research,
its evident that the world is indeed on the verge of a rapid Chinese-led transformation which is set
to challenge the existing American-dominated global framework, but that both systems risk being
undermined by the emergence of obstructionist strands of New Nationalism/Resurrected
Sovereignty. Furthermore, the impending black swan impact of the AI-Robotic Revolution is set to
lead to unpredictable consequences that can only be speculated upon at the current moment, but
which will nevertheless have a signicant inuence on the nature of the future Civilizational World
Order. This is an aspect of the analysis which was admittedly underexplored owing to the authors
lack of expertise in this eld, but which is assuredly relevant to the geopolitical component of this
work. Even without its full incorporation into the present piece, however, the Geopolitics Of The
Techno-Civilizational World Order still aimed to put forth a thought-provoking vision of the future
which will hopefully inspire readers to carry out their own research in this direction and further
contribute to the new eld of Civilizational Geopolitics.

DISCLAIMER:The authorwrites for this publication in a private capacity which is unrepresentative

of anyone or any organization except for hisown personal views. Nothing written by the
authorshould ever be conated with the editorial views or ocialpositions of any other media
outlet or institution.

Mission Topics Civilizations Analytics

2017

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