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Exam 1 Notes
I. DEFINITION OF DEMOGRAPHY
-empirical, statistical and mathematical
-study of the human population
a. Change in Population (growth/decline)
b. Composition
c. Distribution of population in space
Formal Definition
Demography is the study of the size, territorial distribution, and composition of population, changes therein,
and the components of such changes. Hauser and Duncan (1959:2)
Statistical and mathematical study of the size, composition, and spatial distribution of human population and
of changes over time in theses aspects through the operation of the five processes of Fertility, Mortality,
Marriage, Migration and Social Mobility
Distribution
-Arrangement of population in space at a given time
Structure
-Distribution of population among its sex/age
Change
-growth/decline of the total population in one of its units
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
Population Studies
-Broader, encompassing not only demography but the less-mathematical study of composition/distribution
- population studies is typically much more broad ranging, with theories and hypotheses from other scientific
disciplines combined with demographic data and variables
-relation of demographic variables and other variables
-inter-disciplinary bordering formal demography and substantive discipline not necessarily social science
(formal) Demography
-demography a part of population studies
-mathematically more precise
- generally concerned with the development of mathematical or statistical models.
PRIMARY
CENSUS
VITAL REGISTRATION
SURVEYS (SAMPLE)
SECONDARY
Administrative
Statistical Year book
A. CENSUS
-Major Source of data
- the total process of collecting, compiling, evaluating, analyzing and publishing demographic, economic and
social data pertaining to all persons in the country or in a well-limited territory
-Complete count (enumeration) of the people and the houses in a given area at a specific point in time
Uses
-formulation of policies, plans, programs in sectors in health/education/labor/housing
-redistricting and appointment of congressional seats and other legislative concerns
-creation of political/administrative units
-allocation of resources/revenue
-baseline information in establishing offices/factories
-determine customer demands for various goods/services
-supply of labor for production and distribution of goods and services
-provide info on demographic trends, population dynamics and human behavior
-inputs in small-area estimation methodologies for poverty in generation of poverty estimates
Features
1. UNIVERSALITY Precisely defined territory and includes every person residing within its scope
2. INDIVIDUAL ENUMERATION each individual is enumerated, the characteristics of each person is
recorded separately
3. SIMULTANEITY enumerated with respect to well-defined point in time and the data are in terms of
well-defined reference period.
4. DEFINED PERIODICITY Censuses are taken at regular intervals (DECENIAL)
Advantages Limitations
-representative of the entire country -Expensive, Time-consuming, Large Staff Needed
-universal /detailed data at very small level -Every 5 to 10 years
-broader / wide range of topics covered -Far-flung areas may not be enumerated properly
-Takes time for data processing / year before
dissemination
Method of Enumeration
1. Direct Interview or Canvasser Method
2. Self-enumeration (self-administered)
3. Enumeration of special group (nomads, tribal, people in inaccessible areas)
4. Non-interview method (from neighbors)
5. Sample Census (long form [10% of popn] vs Short form [Census])
Types of Collection
DE JURE (Usual) DE FACTO (Actual)
-all persons usually living in the household are -All persons present in the household or other
listed whether present or not living quarters at midnight of the census day or all
who passed the night at the HH
Methodological Approaches
- Traditional
- Register-based
- Rolling Census
- Traditional with Yearly Updates
>Content errors
Content error pertains to the error in the characteristics that are reported for the persons or housing units
that are enumerated.
-errors in the characteristic due to incorrect reporting or recording or failure to report
>Non-response errors
occur when some or all information about individuals, households or dwellings is not provided.
>Response errors
occur when a question is misunderstood or a characteristic is misreported by the respondent, the census
enumerator or the Census Help Line operator.
>Processing errors
can occur at any stage of processing. Processing errors include errors that can be made at data capture during
coding operations, when written responses are converted into numerical codes, and during imputation, when
valid (but not necessarily accurate) values are inserted into a record to replace missing or invalid data.
>Sampling errors apply only when answers to questions are obtained from a sample.
B. Vital Registration
-Live births, Deaths, adoption, legitimation, marriages
Civil Registration
-The continuous, permanent and compulsory recording of the civil status of persons and modification
thereof.
Vital Event
This is an event which has something to do with an individuals entrance into or departure from life together
with the change in civil status which may occur to him during his lifetime.
Recognizing the importance of reliable vital statistics for producing timely and accurate population estimates
and other demographic and health statistics, including the Millennium Development Goals, which are some of
the most basic requirements for evidence-based planning and efficient resource allocation, the Committee
supports the development of a regional program for improving vital statistics in the Asian and Pacific region
and recommends that the secretariat, under the guidance of the Bureau, continue to develop the regional
program fully in close collaboration with development partners. - UNESCAP 2010
History:
>Church: (Used by historical Demography) / Archived data (Spanish period)
>john Graunt: Bills of Mortality
>UN handbook of vital statistics
Death
The permanent disappearance of all evidence of life at any time after live birth has taken place.
-Excludes fetal death
Fetal Death
A fetal death is death prior to the complete expulsion or extraction from its mother of a product of
conception, irrespective of the duration of pregnancy, as indicated by the fact that after such expulsion or
extraction the fetus does not breathe or show any evidence of life, such as beating of the heart, pulsation of
the umbilical cord, or definite movement of voluntary muscles.
Marriage
Is the act, ceremony or process by which the legal relationship of husband and wife is constituted. The
legality of the union may be established by civil, religious or other means as recognized by the laws of each
country
A special contract of permanent union between a man and a woman entered into in accordance with law for
the establishment of conjugal and family life.
Role of PSA
-Mandated by law to keep and preserve birth marriage, death certification of a Filipino Citizen
-Civil Registration
Why it matters?
-Cannot be assumed uniform
-under-registration: Higher in rural, poor groups, specific events
Unreported out of hospital births and deaths
-Late registration
-Bias Info
cause of death data: Inaccurate, High proportion of ill-defined deaths, Confusion between immediate and
underlying cause of death.
Ill-defined / garbage codes: Data not available, Poor communication channels lack of collaboration from
Medical community, Low quality of data
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
C. Demographic Survey
>sampling techniques are used
-current
-less processing time
-more data on particular area
+less expensive than census
NDHS
-A part of the worldwide Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) program designed to collect, analyze, and
disseminate demographic data on fertility, family planning, and maternal and child health.
-Gathers information to estimate current levels of fertility, mortality, and migration, including the factors that
affect them.
-Provides helpful inputs to policy formulation and to monitoring activities and researches related to health
and family planning of both the government and private sectors.
e.g. National Demographic and Health Survey (1993, 1998, 2003, 2013)
PSA: FS, SOF, FIES. UPPI: YAFS Fleems, Hels
Population register
- an individualized data system, that is, a mechanism of continuous recording, and/or of coordinated linkage,
of selected information pertaining to each member of the resident population of a country in such a way to
provide the possibility of determining up-to-date information concerning the size and characteristics of that
population at selected time intervals (chap. I.A).
-Basic characteristics that may be included in a population register are date and place of birth, sex, date and
place of death, date of arrival/departure, citizenship(s) and marital status. Depending on the possibility of
proper linking with other registers, much additional information may be added to the single record, such as
language(s), ethnicity, educational attainment, parity, activity status and occupation. -In order to be useful, any
additional information must be kept up to date. If complete, population registers can produce data on both
internal and international migration through the recording of changes of residence as well as the recording of
international arrivals and departures.
PROPORTION
Proportions show the size of a sub-group of the population relative to the total population. They are
calculated by dividing the number within the sub-group of interest by the total population:
Pi
Proportion =
P
RATIO
-Divide 1 quantity by another
-Descriptive (sub-group relative to another sub-group)
-Sex Ratio, Child-Women Ratio, Dependency Ratio
ratio = P1
P2
RATE
-measure of frequency with which and event occurs in a defined population
Numerator: Count of Events
Denominator: Mid point of population
-a measure of change in a population over a specified time period (usually a year).
-NUMERATOR: Count of events of interest (births, deaths, marriages, disease diagnoses etc.) that occur during
the specified period of time.
-DENOMINATOR is either the number of person-years of exposure to risk during the time period, or an
estimate of this. In demography, the mid-year population is often used as this estimate and is equivalent to
the mean population for the period specified.
PROBABILITY
-likelihood that some event will or will not occur to some group of exposed persons
-Prob of dying/ Prob. Of surviving
A. Sex Composition
-Biological
-by Male / Female
-balance of sexes that affect social / economic relationship
-cross classifying sex with other variables is significant in analysis
-For the evaluation of the completeness and accuracy of population counts
-Basic demographic characteristics which is extremely vital for any meaningful analysis
-Sex misreporting is NEGLIGIBLE!
-important indicator to measure the extent of prevailing equity between males and females in a society at a
particular point in time.
-mainly the outcome of an interplay of sex differential mortality, sex selective migration, sex-ratio at birth and
at times sex selectivity in population enumeration.
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
Techniques of analyzing sex composition:
1. Numerical Measures:
Masculinity Proportion
-Ratio of the excess or deficit of males to the total Population
-Ratio of the number of men to the number of women
-Percentage of males in total population
-The proportion of males in the total population.
Other Ratios:
-Sex ratio of deaths, Sex ratio of migrants, Sex ratio of population subgroups, Sex ratio at birth
Sex ratio at birth between 102 and 107 but declines with age due to higher male than female mortality
The level of the sex ratios depends on the number of male and emale births and on the mortality of
the population. All populations have more male than female births, and so the sex ratio at the early
ages is expected to be slightly over 100 (103 to 106).
However, since mortality is usually higher for males than females, the sex ratio is reduced continuously
up to the oldest ages.
Sex ratios from current census can be compared to expected sex ratios based on previous census(es)
In absence of sex-selective mortality or international migration, sex ratios of total population and age
groups/cohorts in successive censuses should relatively stable from census to census
Age distribution of a population gives a record of the demographic history of that population
-Age distribution is sensitive to changes in demographic rates, particularly fertility and, for small areas,
migration rates
-In a closed population (i.e., no migration) the age distribution is determined only by fertility and mortality
Age misreporting
-may arise from error on the part of the respondent or from miss-estimation of age by the interviewer, may be
suggested by irregularities evident in indices or graphs.
Population pyramid by single years of age
Age and sex ratios
Cohort comparison
Summary indices of irregularities in age structure or in age-sex structure
-Whipples index varies from 0 to 500. A value of 0 indicates that digits 0 and 5 are not reported, 100
means there is no preference for 0 or 5, and a maximum of 500 is seen when only the digits 0 and 5
are reported in the age data.
-The inference about age distribution based on this index is as follows: <105 = highly accurate; 105
109.9 = fairly accurate; 110124.9 = approximate; 125174.9 = rough; 175 = very rough.
3. Myers Blended Method
-To avoid bias in the index age/whipples index
-It can give the extent of digit preference for all the digits 0, 1, 2, 3... 9.
-It can be used to report errors for all ages 10 99 years.
Age-Ratio Analysis
Age Ratio
-The lower age accuracy index, the more adequate the census data
INDICES
Two indexes can be used to compare between two percentage distributions of age groups;
B. Index of Dissimilarity
-Another summary measure of the difference between two age distributionsthe index of dissimilarityis
based on the absolute differences between the percentages at each age.
-In this procedure, the differences between the percentages for corresponding age groups are determined,
they are summed without regard to sign, and one-half of the sum is taken. (Taking one-half the sum of the
absolute differences is equivalent to taking the sum of the positive differences or the sum of the negative
differences.)
-Indicates the percent of one population that needs to be redistributed to have the age distribution of the
other
-Can be calculated for any two comparable percent distributions
-Does not tell which population has the older population
C. Median Age
- The most appropriate measure of central tendency for an age distribution is the median.
- The analysis of age distributions may be carried further by computing some measure of central
tendency.
- The median age of an age distribution may be defined as the age that divides the population into two
groups of equal-size, one of which is younger and the other of which is older than the median.
- It corresponds to the 50-percentile mark in the distribution.
Child-dependency ratio Proportion of children less than 15 relative to the population of working ages
Old-age dependency ratio - Proportion of adults over age 65 relative to the population of working ages
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
Age & Sex Structure:
Population Pyramid
-Graphical representation of age and sex distribution
-Bar Chart arranged vertically, that shows the distribution of a population
-Shows the different surviving cohorts of people of each sex in the country.
-Comparing historical population age distributions for a country helps in analyzing data consistency. This may
be accomplished graphically by plotting the population in the various age groups by year of birth. Such a figure
reveals past trends of fertility, migration, age misreporting, and even errors in census enumeration.
-Pyramids with absolute numbers show differences in overall sizes of total populations and in number at each
age
-Percent pyramids show relative differences in population size at each age-sex group
Expansive
-populations that are young and growing.
-typical pyramid shape, which has a broad base and narrow top
-larger percentage of the population in the younger age cohorts, usually with each age cohort smaller in size
than the one below it.
-Typically representative of developing nations, whose populations often have high fertility rates and lower
than average life expectancies.
Constrictive
- describe populations that are elderly and shrinking.
-like beehives and typically have an inverted shape with the graph tapering in at the bottom.
-smaller percentages of people in the younger age cohorts
- typically characteristic of countries with higher levels of social and economic development, where access to
quality education and health care is available to a large portion of the population.
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
Stationary
- describe populations that are not growing.
- They are characterized by their rectangular shape,
-displaying somewhat equal percentages across age cohorts that taper off toward the top.
-These pyramids are often characteristic of developed nations, where birth rates are low and overall quality of
life is high.
Age-Sex Distribution
-The distribution of a population by age and sex is one of the most basic types of information needed in
planning for the future. Any analysis of educational requirements, military needs, labor force projections,
family composition, retirement, migration, or voting practices, for example, would not be complete without
considering information on age.
-Age is a crucial component in demographic analysis as well. The study of mortality and fertility without
considering age will permit only a partial understanding of these phenomena.
- Persons of the same age constitute a cohort of people who were born during the same year (or period);
they have been exposed to similar historical events and conditions in the nation.
-The age structure of the whole population at a given moment may be viewed as an aggregation of cohorts
born in different years.
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
IV. Population Change
-Differences in size of the population at different dates
-Increase/Decrease in absolute number / percent
Population Growth: When there is increase / decrease is possible
-Can be negative
Pn = P0 + bn
where P0 is the initial population, Pn is the population at the
end of the period (n years later), n is the time in years, and
b is the annual amount of population change.
r = (Pn / Po)^1/t - 1
c. Exponential Growth Rate
-In an exponential series, the compounding takes place continuously (i.e., a constant rate of
change is applied at every infinitesimal unit of time).
-compounding is arbitrary in the limiting case the compounding takes place continuously.
Pn = Poe rt
-provide meaningful comparison
3. Doubling Time
-time it takes for a population to double
Pn = 2Po
Growth rate is inversely proportional to doubling time. (Lower growth rate, More/longer time to
double the population)
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
-Population change is measured by the difference between population sizes at different dates
-As time goes by, the population in an area can do the following: Grow by adding births or people moving in
the area (in-migrants) Or it can decrease because of deaths or people moving out of the area (outmigrants)
V. Demographic Analysis
-Trend Analysis
-Ratio-rate-probability
LEXIS Diagram
-Lexis diagrams provide a graphical representation of the relationships between demographic events in time
and persons at risk and they also assist in calculating rates
-Every demographic event is characterized by two numbers: the time (e.g., year) at which it occurs and the
age (or other duration measure) of the person to whom it occurs
-A useful type of graph that helps to identify the constituents of cohorts. Typically having a y-axis of age and
an x-axis of calendar period both drawn to the same scale cohorts can be shown as blocks moving at a 45
angle. Seemingly simple and obvious it is surprisingly helpful in identifying cohorts for mortality or fertility
analysis.
Lexis diagram can show the experience of a cohort in a particular interval
-can also show experience as they move on through life,
Cohort Analysis
-Cohort : group of persons experiencing the same significant demographic event during a specified brief
period of time
-Lifetime picture
-birth, marriage, education
-includes observation relating to the cohort in successive years
-General approach to main problems of demographic measurements and analysis
-Better understanding and fuller explanation of annual change of the even understudy than period analysis
alone
-valuable way of structuring part of data for periods of developing projections of basic series
-useful in evaluating census data
Cross-sectional data provide an annual picture with respect to the event or characteristic under observation
by age or
Period vs Cohort
-Demographic analysis may use either cohort or period data.
Period Analysis
-Period data are events which occur during a set period of time, often either one year or five.
-Period data contains the demographic experiences of people of many different ages (in other words,
people belonging to many different birth cohorts). Many of the commonly used demographic rates are based
on period data, such as crude birth rates.
- Period data: type of demographic even which occurs in great number of years (involving many cohorts) but
which is observed during a specified period of time
-Quantitative description and analysis for the many cohorts observed over a period of time
Period data is cross-sectional, as it takes a snapshot of the current rates at a given moment in time.
+Easy to Collect
+ Period analysis can use the most up-to-date information and thus be used to measure current trends.
+Period analysis is useful for when we wish to show rapid fluctuations which are a response to social, political
or cultural events.
- The summary rates calculated from period data do not represent real life experiences. Over the course of
an individuals life the rate of occurrence of demographic events will change.
FLOWS
Flows: during a certain period (one year, five years, between two censuses etc.)
- Population flows are the demographic events of mortality, fertility and migration which bring about
changes in the size and structure of a population.
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
-Events, deaths/births excess to the population during some specified time period such as calendar year that
changes the size, composition and geographic distribution