Brenna Copeland

16 September 2017
Model Tracing Exercises (Chapter 2)

Exercise 2.1
The first exercise was conducted to simulate the
money in a bank account with a changing interest
rate. The simulation ran for 80 years. The account
started with 500 dollars in the account, then ended
with over 16,000 dollars in the account. The interest
rate changed from 4% to 6% as the money
increased. The stock was used to represent the bank
account. The flow was used to show the money
entering the account. The converter was used to
determine the interest rate for each year. The graph
shows how the interest rate and bank account
balance changes over the 80 years. The interest rate
starts at 4% then increases until it reaches 6%. The
interest rate is the red line on the graph. The money
in the account starts at 500, then exponentially
increases, it is shown by the blue line of the graph.

Exercise 2.2
The graph to the left is a scatter graph. The x axis
represents the bank balance and the y axis
represents the interest rate. At the start of the
graph the points are very close together and look
to just be a line. Towards the end of the graph the
points are slightly spaced out and you can see that
the line is made up of dots. This data shows that
the interest is consistent with the graph shown in
Figure 2.17. Both of the graphs increase at the
same points and stay consistent at the same points.

Exercise 2.3
The two graphs to the left
show that how graphs can
be put on the same graph
pad. The number at the top
right corner shows the
page number and arrows
that allow you to manure
between graphs.
Exercise 2.4
 Brenna Copeland
16 September 2017
This exercise asked to
change the interest rate to
have two abruptly changing
thresholds. The thresholds
were placed at $2000 and
$4000. The graphs to the
right show the effects of this
change. In the line graph,
both of the lines increase
more rapidly. In the scatter
plot the separate points are
spread out more and can be
seen more clearly.
Exercise 2.6
This exercise ends up producing the same
graph as the first exercise. Vensim allows you
to put in the separate variables, shown in
exercise 2-5. When all of these variables are
loaded together and the correct ranges are set,
the graph produced matches the graph from
the first exercise.

Exercise 2.7
The picture to the right shows the equations
used in the simulation. They can be found
the equation tab, found under the model tab.
These equations were used to program the
simulation.
Exercise 2.8
 Brenna Copeland
16 September 2017
For this this exercise, a model was built to
represent a population of people. A stock was
used to represent the population. A flow,
flowing into the stock, was used to represent
the births in the population. A flow, flowing out
of the stock, was used to represent the deaths in
the population. The initial population was 800
million people, the birth rate is 100 million per
year, and the death rate is 200 million per a
year. The dark blue line on the graph represents
the population. Because the death rate is higher
than the death rate, the population decreases
through the 10 years that the simulation is run.
At the 8th year the software changes the death
rate so the population does not become a
negative number.
Exercise 2.9
The graph to the left shows the results if the
non-negative setting was turned off in the
program. The birth and death rates stay
constant and the population becomes a
negative number. These results are what the
book called bad results. These bad results
can be useful sometimes because they can
help you see when you mess up. The
population at the end of this simulation was
negative 200 million people. You cannot
have a negative amount of people so this
graph would be inaccurate in showing
populations.
Exercise 2.10
The graph to the right shows the same
population from the previous simulation, but
with a different death rate. The death rate was
changed to 25% per a year. This new death rate
changed the population to decrease
exponentially, instead of being linear like
before. The death rate slowly decreased until it
was close to the birthrate. A converter was used
to represent the changing death rate. In this
model, the population will never become
negative.
Figure 2.15
 Brenna Copeland
16 September 2017
This graph is used to represent 3 populations
changing over time. All three of the
populations have the same birth rate, but they
all have different death rates. The graph
shows how the populations changes due to
different death rates. The blue line is a
population with a 9% death rate. The red line
is a population with a 12.5% death rate. The
pink line is a population with a 16% death
rate. A sensitive analysis was used to
produce this data.