Commercial Vehicle Industry Analysis & Way Forward

Indian Commercial vehicle is a remarkable success story with a CAGR of 25% over the period the last 17 years. The growth of Indian commercial
vehicle has been based on economic growth, increasing public & private spending on infrastructure and higher penetration of financing
facilities, we expect the growth trend in each segment of commercial vehicles to continue in the coming years. Upto 3.5T category has grown
683% over last 16 years to touch all time high of 3.60 lac vehicles per annum. India is at a cusp of transformation into a giant, with already signs,
with already becoming the 4th largest automotive market by volume in the
world, surpassing Germany, France and UK in automotive sales

Going forward, we expect the India to be the key pillar of global automotive
market - policy, actions and India will be the next anchor of future growth in the
auto industry. Over the next 20 years, India will be part of global automotive
triumvirate - the global BIG 3, In fact, its expected the India automotive sales to
exceed the US market by mid 2030s.5. The global automotive game will be
pretty much decided by twin forces for China and India.
 Indian commercial Vehicle snapshot

Tonnage wise
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Volumes

TT 12073 13661 3565 7910 12010 12220 25080 25022 9799 17791 29695 29123 20112 14155 25493 41278 41848

MAV Trucks 12742 22796 31750 45611 57778 60858 102312 82518 49943 74560 105760 105386 70255 54657 81915 106314 89274

16T 30303 29141 36773 48240 52430 42189 38003 32197 24067 31985 39648 35626 29425 19963 22973 34554 35448

12-14T 1680 2343 4416 6005 9001 12451 17727 20063 14383 23370 30671 40509 38070 30937 27998 31471 29621

8/9T 5944 5817 7004 9567 17008 21860 21310 20969 13207 20311 24649 26599 19933 13273 12519 15068 16291

7T 15680 8937 11188 11941 12927 10172 6819 5798 4646 6340 5750 6946 6396 5314 4776 5705 6163

5T 32526 20281 22171 26696 31008 27304 25053 22700 18844 25602 27549 31666 23792 18911 16901 20268 20809

3.5-5T 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 365 6091 10772 11666 8673 5233 7134 8421 9673

Upto 3.5T 0 2769 23049 41151 55910 81793 132067 157313 147470 212417 271937 359729 437873 359885 308589 298379 324503

Total (3.5-16T) 86133 66519 81552 102449 122374 113976 108912 101727 75512 113699 139039 153012 126289 93631 92301 115487 118005

Total (5-15T) 55830 37378 44779 54209 69944 71787 70909 69530 51080 75623 88619 105720 88191 68435 62194 72512 72884

CV Volume 110948 105745 139916 197121 248072 268847 368371 366580 282724 418467 546431 647250 654529 522328 508298 561458 573630

Yellow highlight the peak number

1. CV industry has increased from 1.10 lacs in 200-01 to 9 lacs in 2016-17

2. Upto 3.5T segment has peaked to 4.37 lac units in 2012-13, is the largest segment in CV industry
3. MAV is the second largest segment , peaked to 1.06 lacs in 2015-16
Tonnage wise
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Market Share

TT 11% 13% 3% 4% 5% 5% 7% 7% 3% 4% 5% 4% 3% 3% 5% 7% 7%

MAV Trucks 11% 22% 23% 23% 23% 23% 28% 22% 17% 18% 19% 16% 11% 10% 16% 19% 16%

16T 27% 28% 26% 24% 21% 16% 10% 9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 4% 4% 5% 6% 6%

12-14T 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5%

8/9T 5% 6% 5% 5% 7% 8% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3%

7T 14% 8% 8% 6% 5% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

5T 29% 19% 16% 14% 12% 10% 7% 6% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4%

3.5-5T 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2%

Upto 3.5T 0% 3% 16% 21% 23% 30% 36% 43% 53% 51% 50% 56% 67% 69% 61% 53% 57%

TIV grt % -5% 32% 41% 26% 8% 38% 0% -22% 47% 30% 18% 1% -20% -3% 10% 2%

5-15T
50% 35% 32% 28% 28% 27% 19% 19% 18% 18% 16% 16% 13% 13% 12% 13% 13%
contribution
3.5-16T
78% 63% 58% 52% 49% 42% 29% 28% 26% 27% 25% 24% 19% 18% 18% 21% 21%
contribution
Yellow highlight the peak number

1. Upto 3.5T segment contributes to ~60% of the CV industry , followed by MAV contributing to 16% , hence
both cornering ~75% of the CV industry
2. Upto 3.5T segment grows when the TIV drops and MAV grows when the TIV grows, reflects that higher
demand leads to larger bucket load , and vice versa in falling market
3. 3.5T- 16T segment contribution has decreased from 78%in 2000-01 to current level of 21% and has been
in the range of 20% only for past 5 years
4. 3.5 16T segment is expected to remain in these levels, since they are required for specific need and
application like POL, 2 Wheeler & City Entry Restriction etc
 Upto 3.5T TIV analysis

GVW FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

Sub 2T Segment 92579 110278 103378 148907 191373 249723 247431 166860 131455 114960 116893

2~3.5T Segment 39486 47035 44092 63510 81622 110006 190,442 193,025 177,134 183419 207610

Upto 3.5T 132065 157313 147470 212417 272995 359729 437873 359885 308589 298379 324503

PS Contribution - 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 69% 57% 46% 43% 39% 36%
Sub 2T

PS Contribution - 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 31% 43% 54% 57% 61% 64%
2 ~3.5T

1. 2-3.5T crossed Sub 2T segment in FY14 and currently dominated upto 3.5T with 64%
2. The reason for shift to 2-3.5T segment is due to better rural infrastructure, higher demand for legal payload
and increased daily running from ~30km per day to 75~100 km day

Way Forward

1. Next big opportunity is 2~3.5T GVW it is expected to grow due to improved rural economy, and government
restriction on city entry & permit for vehicle above 3.5T GVW
2. Segmental approach in 5 ~15T category to continue maintain eicher supremacy over competition