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in downtown Athens, may have wondered if the written language folks were starting
to use was allowing them to avoid thinking for themselves.
If there is a good answer to the question, it probably starts with a contradiction: What
makes us intelligent--the ability to reason and learn--is staying the same and will
never fundamentally change because of technology. On the other hand, technology,
from pocket calculators to the Internet, is radically changing the notion of the
intelligence necessary to function in the modern world.
Take Diego Valderrama, an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank in San
Francisco. If he were an economist 40 years ago, he may have used a paper, pencil
and slide rule to figure out and chart by hand how the local economy might change
with a 1 percent boost in taxes. But because he's a thoroughly modern guy, he uses
knowledge of the C++ programming language to create mathematical algorithms to
compute answers and produce elaborate projections on the impact of
macroeconomic changes to work forces or consumer consumption.
Does that mean he's not as bright as an economist from the 1950s? Is he smarter?
The answer is probably "no" on both counts. He traded one skill for another.
Computer skills make him far more efficient and allow him to present more
accurate--more intelligent--information. And without them, he'd have a tough time
doing his job. But drop him into the Federal Reserve 40 years ago, and a lack of skill
with the slide rule could put an equal crimp on his career.
But what makes someone smart can vary in different cultures and situations. A
successful Wall Street banker who has dropped into the Australian Outback likely
couldn't pull off a great Crocodile Dundee impression. A mathematical genius like
Isaac Newton could be--in fact, he was--socially inept and a borderline hermit. A
master painter? Probably not so good at balancing a checkbook.
What's undeniable is the Internet's democratization of information. It's providing
instant access to information and, in a sense, improving the practical application of
intelligence for everyone.
Nearly a century ago, Henry Ford didn't have the Internet, but he did have a bunch of
smart guys. The auto industry pioneer, as a parlor trick, liked to claim he could
answer any question in 30 minutes. In fact, he had organized a research staff he
could call at any time to get him the answer.
Today, you don't have to be an auto baron to feign that kind of knowledge. You just
have to be able to type G-O-O-G-L-E. People can in a matter of minutes find sources
of information like court documents, scientific papers or corporate securities filings.
"The notion that the world's knowledge is literally at your fingertips is very compelling
and is very beguiling," said Vint Cerf, who co-created the underlying architecture of
the Internet and who is widely considered one of its "fathers." What's exciting "is the
Internet's ability to absorb such a large amount of information and for it to be
accessible to other people, even if they don't know it exists or don't know who you
are."
The story of humankind is that of work substitution and human enhancement. The
Neolithic revolution brought the substitution of some human physical work by animal
work. The Industrial revolution brought more substitution of human physical work by
machine work. The Digital revolution is implying a significant substitution of human
brain work by computers and ICTs in general. Whenever a substitution has taken
place, men have been able to focus on more qualitative tasks, entering a virtuous
cycle: the more qualitative the tasks, the more his intelligence develops; and the
more intelligent he gets, more qualitative tasks he can perform.
That’s not all, in this Internet age, Intelligence is not just going to be limited to human
beings.
First, our world is becoming instrumented: The transistor, invented 60
years ago, is the basic building block of the digital age. Now, consider a world in
which there are a billion transistors per human, each one costing one ten-millionth of
a cent. We'll have that by 2010. There will likely be 4 billion mobile phone
subscribers by the end of this year… and 30 billion Radio Frequency Identification
tags produced globally within two years. Sensors are being embedded across entire
ecosystems—supply chains, healthcare networks, cities… even natural systems like
rivers.
Second, our world is becoming interconnected: Very soon there will be 2
billion people on the Internet. But that's just the beginning. In an instrumented world,
systems and objects can now "speak" to one another, too. Think about the prospect
of a trillion connected and instrumented things—cars, appliances, cameras,
roadways, pipelines… even pharmaceuticals and livestock. And then think about the
amount of information produced by the interaction of all those things. It will be
unprecedented.
Third, all things are becoming intelligent: New computing models can
handle the proliferation of end-user devices, sensors and actuators and connect
them with powerful back-end systems. How powerful? This year IBM's Roadrunner
supercomputer broke the "petaflop" barrier—one thousand trillion calculations per
second. Roadrunner is made from the same chips that go into consumer game
consoles and the no-cost operating system Linux. Combined with advanced
analytics, such supercomputers—and new computing models like "clouds"—can turn
mountains of data into intelligence. And that intelligence can be translated into
action, making our systems, processes and infrastructures more efficient, more
productive and responsive—in a word, smarter.
Smart power grids—allow remote sensing and operation of the grid, including
connection and disconnection of service and automated meter reads. This means
fewer and shorter outages, improved customer service and more efficient and
reliable delivery. Smart meters also give customers better information, so they can
use energy more efficiently. In addition, at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, a
virtual energy marketplace is allowing consumers to trade flexibility in usage for
lower costs—and helping deliver a 50 percent reduction in short-term peak electricity
distribution loads.
And that's just for today's power systems. The infusion of digital intelligence will help
enable lower-cost integration of new sources of power—including renewables such
as wind and solar, not to mention the smart charging of plug-in electric vehicles—
and also provide end-to-end insight across the entire energy grid.
Smart food systems—can use RFID technology to trace meat and poultry from the
farm, through the supply chain, all the way to supermarket shelves. And the recent
Nutritious Rice for the World project will apply IBM’s World Community Grid to
harness the unused and donated power from nearly one million individual PCs to
develop stronger strains of rice… strains that could produce larger and more
nutritious yields.
Smart water management: We can even use computer modeling to simulate the
behavior of river basins around the world. That's what the Great Rivers Project, a
partnership between IBM and The Nature Conservancy, is now doing in Brazil, China
and the U.S.—helping to conserve the environment and benefit the communities that
depend on our rivers. And a project with the Beacon Institute is generating minute-to-
minute monitoring of the Hudson River in New York State, via a network of sensors,
robotics and computational technology distributed throughout the 315-mile
waterway.
And, finally…
I think one thing is clear: The world will continue to become smaller, flatter and
smarter. We are moving into the age of the globally integrated and intelligent
economy, society and planet.